Does anybody really believe Johnson and Truss when they say they will renege on the Brexit 'deal'?
We probably should believe it, because they seem prepared to paint the country even further into a corner and if I were the EU I'd call their bluff TBH. They must already be saying to him "don't do this because you'll have to go through with it".
Just watched a Channel 4 News interview. "Prime Minister, you must be furious with whoever signed up to a deal this bad?"
Johnson agrees that he made the agreement, and everything that is happening is in there, but he hoped and believed that "our [EU] friends would not apply them in the way that they have..."
If you don't want to watch the preamble start at 3:15
Breathtaking. The man is bung full of it. How long will it take for the spineless hangers-on to get rid of him, or the apparently witless electorate to see what they all are?
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Link? Link! Where's my link?
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It's his own protocol FFS. Literally the legal manifestation of his agreement with the then Taoiseach in autumn 2019so as to present an "oven ready deal" to the electorate.
Starting where we are now there are two issues:
Firstly making the deal work seamlessly on the ground so that the supermarkets in Belfast and Derry are properly stocked and business in NI can trade with as little friction as possible into both the Republic and GB. That's doable with goodwill on both sides.
Secondly there are the political consequences of his throwing the DUP, then his allies, under a bus. Differentiating NI from GB, at least where it does not advantage Unionism, is contrary to their basic creed. That may be a bridge too far for the EU if Unionism wants the protocol abolished or reduced to the point where it's not fit for its purpose of protecting the EU Single Market.
But he knew all this in November 2019...
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NI has always been an anomaly within GB, they have a very different political scene that is mainly baffling to the mainland. Although this is a major political issue to the vast majority of the mainland population i doubt they've noticed much about it all.
The protocol may well be trying to square a circle but then that's NI for you.
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It's a stupid piece of legislation, how can you have a part of the UK operating as if it's still in the EU. Any blithering idiot could have foreseen the outcome, worse warned specifically about it before hand.
Only one solution, reunify north and South.
They can carry Johnson's head on a pikestaff at the Orange Day parades
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>> Only one solution, reunify north and South.
>>
>> They can carry Johnson's head on a pikestaff at the Orange Day parades
I like the sound of that, but it's probably easier for GB & NI to rejoin the EU than for Ireland to unify.
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>> reunify north and South.
Even if all the people in the island agreed it (Highly unlikely even allowing decades) would not work.
NI gets £5K EXTRA per head subsidy from Westminster annually.
HUGE UK public sector in NI doing Government admin for the whole of the UK.
The UK civil service jobs would go and Eire could not afford the Billions in subsidies.
West Germany took on East Germany from1989 & it's massive task was on a smaller scale relative to the size of the economy in Eire than needed in NI
Eire on the other hand has a HIGH GDP - huge by comparison to UK.
This is due to being home for European HQ by US IT/Drug Companies etc (in the main) Corporations attracted by Eire low corporation tax.
EU & US are harmonising tax rates so the Eire economy and some of the 300K jobs will suffer.
Apple Ireland has a revenue of £20m per employee per year (2017) - every Apple product from China/India is invoiced from Apple in Dublin to Apple UK, Europe & other markets - APPLE UK, EU pays taxes at a much reduced amounts and Apple Ireland bank huge profits on the paper transactions.
Without these book-keeping industries & tax avoidance schemes the Irish economy would shrink massively - it would be back to mainstays of yesteryear -agriculture, food processing and tourism.
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A relative in Dublin suggests that Eire does not want unification. 'Thanks but no thanks.'
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From what I've read southern ireland would like unification but are dead set against paying any extras taxes to help pay for it. Mainly a pipe dream I think.
I believe NI has the highest % of public sector jobs in the UK. Remove that and you'll have some problems.
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>> From what I've read southern ireland would like unification
You really think anyone wants those unionist nutters? Any more than they wanted the IRA criminals?
No Eire can say it's an aim, but it's just a smokescreen
Eire don't want it, and we are lumbered with it.
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>> A relative in Dublin suggests that Eire does not want unification. 'Thanks but no thanks.'
>>
Relatives of mine in Cork say the same. People in the Republic have little love for the northerners, despite sympathising with the plight of the Nationalists during and prior to the troubles.
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>> Only one solution, reunify north and South.
,
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There is another - rejoin the EU
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That the agreement signed with EU was probably unworkable was clear. Boris, the negotiating team, senior civil servants would all have been very aware.
Boris got the "get Brexit done" tick in the box (sadly). His general strategy seems to be to defer the difficult in the hope that the problem somehow disappears or diminishes as an issue.
It often works - he is still in office despite Partygate, Covid public enquiries, etc where public anger may be subsiding - replaced with concern over inflation and cost of living crises.
In many ways (not all) a leader who has clear goals, personal resilience and a thick skin, is preferred - by comparison the consensual approach of his predecessor Mrs May spent three years achieving almost nothing.
The DUP are a disgrace. They supported the Tories in pursuing Brexit despite NI voting fairly clearly to remain in the EU. They lost the recent election to Sinn Fein and are deliberately sabotaging the possibility of democratic government.
Boris clearly prefers brinkmanship to orderly rational negotiation. What the outcome will be is any bodies guess.
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The elephant in the room.
Brexit is causing huge harm to the country and costing us billions. The only way to rectify this is to rejoin in one way or another. But no party is willing to lift its head above the parapet and say that.
Do we think it will ever happen?
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I've worked for some of these "clear goals" types. There are two main sub-variants.
One is rational, and uses resources to consider and define the 'problem' in the round, clarify the aims and the strategic context, generate some options, evaluate them properly, select the best, set some objectives, plan implementation, define success quantifiably, execute, and validate the results.
The other gets a fixed idea about what should be done next, which might or might not be related to an actual need, and then demands that everybody get on with it. There's no agreed problem statement, no high level aims to validate the objective against, not much of a plan so no way of having a realistic timescale, and probably no way of ensuring the quality of the "solution". We used to call it "JFDI".
Sometimes these JFDI exercises were inspired. Mostly they were a mess, with the people charged with the Doing part wondering what the heck they were doing it for. The best ones tend to be simple to do and could almost be regarded as a test.
Anything complicated that was a "JFDI" tended to get the scope decimated along the way as the practicalities were confronted, with the babies disappearing along with the bathwater. Brexit is definitely one of those. Whatever it was supposed to deliver definitely hasn't been, but a lot of bad things have come to pass.
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As already noted the bones of the Protocol were agreed between Johnson and the then Taoiseach Leo Varadker in October 2019.
Varadker has written an article for the Graun giving his perspective:
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/20/boris-johnson-and-i-agreed-northern-ireland-what-happened-leo-varadkar-eu-uk-protocol
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If I read that correctly he makes the very good point that a majority of the NI assembly do not want the protocol abandoned. The DUP should be told to go forth and multiply.
Johnson doesn't know what good faith is.
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But Nancy says ( Straight from the office. No spin from any of the press )
www.speaker.gov/newsroom/51922-4
Chew on that Bojo.
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>> www.speaker.gov/newsroom/51922-4
>>
>> Chew on that Bojo.
Which is as may be.
However England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are one nation - the United Kingdom. The Republic of Ireland is another separate, different nation. Why should there be a border between two member countries of the same nation, but not a border between two foreign nations. Why should a third, foreign nation dictate what two other nations do?
Yes, yes, I know, I have looked out of the window recently.
Actually, it's all the fault of that randy little Welshman, born in England, who didn't take the courageous decisions in the 1920s.
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>> However England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are one nation - the United Kingdom. The
>> Republic of Ireland is another separate, different nation. Why should there be a border between
>> two member countries of the same nation, but not a border between two foreign nations.
>> Why should a third, foreign nation dictate what two other nations do?
I assume that looking out of the window reminded you why a manned/checked border between those particular foreign nations was a bad idea.
The US, as a third party, isn't dictating.
It is reminding us that the Good Friday Agreement, in which it had a role, matters and that the actions of the UK government have consequences.
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Like many things in foreign policy, it's often where you stand as to whether a particular party is dictating, influencing or merely reminding.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 21 May 22 at 14:27
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And a good thing too. A trade agreement with the US would be too one-sided.
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Subordinating our actions to the expectations of the US is simply adding insult to the injury created in signing an unworkable agreement in the first place.
It is not helped by the inadequate behaviour of the DUP who, having supported Brexit, now don't like the terms and refuse to play ball having lost an election.
The EU should be as culpable and aware as Boris and Co of the need to find a way to dig themselves out of the hole which they jointly dug. They both signed up to the unworkable.
One option is simply to cease all checks on shipments from UK to NI and see what falls out!
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Refuse to do the right thing because the USA wants us to? Probably what the ertswhile Russian stooge thinks too.
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That ignores the EU opinion that the UK is acting as a colonial power in NI and the 6 counties should returned to the south.
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They can’t be “returned”. They were never taken. There was no country to take them from. The majority of the population of the six counties did not wish to be me part of a newly independent Irish nation and that is still the position of the majority of the population today.
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>> They can’t be “returned”. They were never taken. There was no country to take them
>> from. The majority of the population of the six counties did not wish to be
>> me part of a newly independent Irish nation and that is still the position of
>> the majority of the population today.
It's certainly true that the six counties did not want to be part of an independent Ireland. In the face of such a threat loyalty to the Crown became, as is the practice in NI, conditional on getting their way. Lloyd-George did exactly that allowing significant devolution and their own parliament to a 'Protestant State for a Protestant People'.
In doing so he sowed the seeds of 'The Troubles' fifty years later.
Nowadays the majority for the status quo is much weaker. Ireland is a liberal democracy that has thrown the shackles of the Catholic religion from its Constitution and Government. It's ahead of Ulster on abortion and equal rights. It's also a member of the EU.
There are signs that younger people no longer hold the binary model of being either Irish or British.
A united Ireland in my lifetime (I'm 62) now seems a real possibility.
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>> The majority of the population of the six counties did not wish to be
>> me part of a newly independent Irish nation and that is still the position of
>> the majority of the population today.
That was probably the situation in 1922(?), although I am not sure that there was a referendum to determine that.
In 1973 the nationalists boycotted the referendun, but even allowing for their absence there was a significant majority in favour of remaining ing the UK.
If there was a referendum tomorrow tomorrow and no party decided to boycott, or take a ludicrous stance, then I wonder what the result would be?
As a Englishman, it would seem logical to me that Ulster/the six counties/ Northern Ireland should be part of one Ireland. Apart from anything else, they are a troublesome lot and we would be well rid of them. As an 80 something year old, I can't see it happening in my lifetime.
Oh - and another thing. let the Jocks have their independence referendum, if they go - so be it.
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>> If there was a referendum tomorrow tomorrow and no party decided to boycott, or take
>> a ludicrous stance, then I wonder what the result would be?
Would that also include a referendum in the Republic to see if the majority there wanted to cut their living standards by taking on an economic basket case?
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 23 May 22 at 10:32
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>> Would that also include a referendum in the Republic to see if the majority there
>> wanted to cut their living standards by taking on an economic basket case?
>>
Which is, of course, another viewpoint to consider. Would The South want The North? I wouldn't if I were Irish.
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I can't see it happening, people in the Republic are for it, until the question is asked do you want to pay for it? Then support drops away significantly.
And what would Ireland look like, it'd be a significant change to their constitution and economy, would they have a federal system?
Then you've got a significant portion of the population who are vehemently opposed to anything other than being in the uk and the significant chance of violence. You can't ignore that.
To my mind its still a pipe dream.
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Over the years I have visited a number of companies in both Eire and Northern Ireland.
From my experience, there is a cultural difference between the two with the south seeming safer and more prosperous.
Within the last decade, I was in the North at a business that sold both B2B and B2C.
I spent some time seeing how they generated sales. I noticed that the sales staff would often get customers involved in a friendly chat that usually culminated in what school they went to or similar and if they went to a protestant school the customer got significantly better price than if they went to a catholic school.
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>> Over the years I have visited a number of companies in both Eire and Northern
>> Ireland.
Why do you call the Republic of Ireland - Eire? It has been called the Republic since 1948, unless, of course, this discussion is being conducted in Gaelic?
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>> Why do you call the Republic of Ireland - Eire? It has been called the
>> Republic since 1948, unless, of course, this discussion is being conducted in Gaelic?
Pedant!
You comment adds nothing to the thread and my meaning was clear.
BTW, I have reports from Irish businesses which list the countries that their customers reside in and they often still report as Eire.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 23 May 22 at 10:32
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>> Pedant!
>>
>> You comment adds nothing to the thread and my meaning was clear.
Yes, I suppose I can be pedantic from time to time. However, you seem to be agreeing that I am right and you are wrong.
Well, at least I don't have a ludicrous and pathetic obsession that I am being persecuted by the police.
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...zippy isn't paranoid....they really are out to get him!...
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>> I spent some time seeing how they generated sales. I noticed that the sales staff
>> would often get customers involved in a friendly chat that usually culminated in what school
>> they went to or similar and if they went to a protestant school the customer
>> got significantly better price than if they went to a catholic school.
I think names, both given and family, are clear markers for what the media in my youth insisted was a Catholic v Protestant issue.
William is not likely to be an Irish name unless perhaps you spell it with a U....
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>> >> for what the media in
>> my youth insisted was a Catholic v Protestant issue.
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>>
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And they were largely correct, because your religion dictated whether you were Nationalist or loyalist.
This is why wearing a Celtic shirt in a loyalist area was a sure fire way of committing suicide.
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Religion seeks to promote decency, respect for one another, integrity, honesty, community etc etc.
The reality is rather different. Whether Sunni/Shia, Muslim/Jew, NI/Ireland etc it promotes bigotry, division, violence, intolerance, etc.
This may be why the Alliance Party made large inroads into the NI election outcome - the number professing no religious allegiance has doubled in the last decade. One can only hope the trend continues, increasing the probability of rational debate.
A referendum should be the determinant of future status. the outcome may reasonably be based on the attractions of EU membership and clarity over borders. The DUP as a result of their current behaviours may get the result the don't want, rather than one they do.
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>> And they were largely correct, because your religion dictated whether you were Nationalist or loyalist.
I'd put that proposition the other way around; whether you were Nationalist or Loyalist dictated your religion.
What it certainly was not was a fight over whether one held Mass or played music in church.
There was a hotelier on the Hebrides for a while who wondered aloud why the NI folks fought while the Catholics and Protestants between Barra Head and the Butt of Lewis did not.
Two reasons. One was that they had a common culture (small scale farming) and a common enemy (Landlordism). The other was that they didn't live cheek by jowl in cities but that one religion occupied Barra northwards to Benbucula after which (various forms of ) Proestantism) took over.
A little conflict now an then over observance of the Sabbath.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 23 May 22 at 10:33
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>> I'd put that proposition the other way around; whether you were Nationalist or Loyalist dictated your religion.
Bompt, no one in a society where religion is a major influence gets to pick their religion. I was born in the Republic, baptised a Catholic and no choice was offered. I was brought up to take pity on everyone who did not share the same faith as being inferior. Even as late as the eighties I can remember my parents and relatives sneeringly saying that so and so "Had married some old Protestant". I caused some raised eyebrows by not only marrying outside the faith but by doing so in a registry office. And becoming the first member of the clan to ever go through a divorce did not go down too well either.
You have to come from a deeply religious culture to fully understand how which particular God you worship and how you worship him/her/it plays a dominant part in your life. There is a book written by a relative of mine called Down By The Glenside about growing up in Ireland during the forties and fifties that goes a long way to explaining how deeply religion dominates every aspect of life in certain societies.
It took the abuse scandals in the Catholic church to finally wake people in Ireland up to this and indirectly led to Ireland turning into a modern, progressive liberal country. Unfortunately the loyalist politicians north of the border still live in the sixteenth century.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 23 May 22 at 10:33
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Question Time tonight really highlighting the issues and problems around NI.
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>> Question Time tonight really highlighting the issues and problems around NI.
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English audience not expected to reach double figures :-)
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NI protocol - Duncan
