Ongoing debate.
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Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 16 Mar 22 at 10:29
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COVID has been displaced from the news but infections, deaths, and hospital admissions are starting to climb again. Another wave could well be on its way
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>> COVID has been displaced from the news but infections, deaths, and hospital admissions are starting
>> to climb again. Another wave could well be on its way
A Facebook friend posted similar referencing Peterborough where she lives.
Long been a bit of a hot spot/coal mine canary for Covid.
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There's a BA2 variant of Omicron and I still see occasional witterings about Deltacron, where patients have two versions at he same time.
Given we are now measuring less we have less idea of the actual state of play. That, and it's been suggested waning immunity particularly amongst the older population. www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/uk-covid-cases-rising-among-those-aged-55-and-over
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There was bound to be some rise with the ending of restrictions. Covid hasn't gone away.
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Granddaughter (7) got it last week, daughter (her mum) tested positive this week.
Both have been a bit off colour, g/d not so bad but daughter (fully vaccinated) has symptoms of a bad cold.
Father and second daughter seem not to have caught it so far. They could of course all catch it in successive weeks which will be a pain.
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>> Father and second daughter seem not to have caught it so far. They could of
>> course all catch it in successive weeks which will be a pain.
We've had people in the office down with it.
Nearly everybody on the floor above. They're our sub-tenants not working with us.
My 'work wife' colleague caught it at home. Her son's g/f probably introduced it passing it to son and on to both his parents.
As a team we'd not been overly careful with masks/distancing when looking at stuff on each other's screens - I'm the floor's resident techie. Fortunately she managed to avoid passing it on by that route.
Was testing daily for a while.
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There are 8 or 9 kids off with +ve Covid in granddaughter's class. I assume there are approaching 30 of them so it's over 25% at best. The cork is certainly out of the bottle.
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Its getting closer, couple of friends of recent contact with us have caught it, and they seem to stay positive for much longer (15 days in one case)
However, we are closer to being wiped out by russia than covid so who gives a poo.
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Yes. I don't suppose the Ukrainians are worrying about Covid.
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SWMBO is on a FB group where a couple reported today that they were booked on a Saga cruise at end March, which included their insurance.
They reported that they had had Covid at beginning of Feb and have been told they cannot join the cruise as a result. I have no other detail but that is a good 6 weeks after catching it, which seems a long time.
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We've been told by our infection control to treat all patients as positives for ninety days following a positive result.
Our numbers haven't really come down.
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>> We've been told by our infection control to treat all patients as positives for ninety
>> days following a positive result.
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>> Our numbers haven't really come down.
Barmy, based on everything that has been said since March 20.
Shirley, the criterion should be 'n' days after the negative result? Ending self-isolation for example requires 2 days of negative tests.
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Damnit, I've just tested positive this evening. SWMBO's CEV so things could be difficult. Advice is to isolate for eleven days - in a house with one bathroom and one kitchen!
Symptoms so far are a runny nose and sneezing, like a cold. Hopefully it will be a false positive, but there was a definite red line on the LFT.
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Hope it passes soon and with no further symptoms - and that SWMBO manages to avoid it.
We've talked about how we'd isolate at home but in the end decided if one got it we may as well both (that's with the more recent kinder variant) but neither of us is CEV.
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False positives with LFT are pretty rare.
Tons of false negatives though.
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Snotty nose seems to be the prevalent current symptoms, both our +ve friends have those symptoms
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>Snotty nose seems to be the prevalent current symptoms,..
Most of the kids in Basingstoke must have it then.
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>> Snotty nose seems to be the prevalent current symptoms, both our +ve friends have those
>> symptoms
+ my daughter. Never heard of it before this morning.
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Positive yesterday - feel grotty, nothing close to how I felt with Man Flu in 2017. Snotty runny nose. Done well to dodge the bullet over the last 2 years despite being in the "front line" of food-banking. Not much of an issue, lie low for a few days
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My mate tested positive yesterday. Like me, he's been really careful throughout.
Starting to feel like I'm missing out...
Hope it stays mild.
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 13 Mar 22 at 18:00
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3 day average cases bottomed at under 30,000 at the end of Feb and are now around 60,000 on an upward trend. Presumed BA2 Omicron variant which might account for all the reports of runny noses, which I hadn't heard of until a week ago.
As a non-expert, it seems likely to me that more infections will result in more mutations, with the more infectious ones winning out. That doesn't lead me to think it will die out.
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The Vicar and Mrs Vicar were not at church today, as they had Covid.
His service was recorded in the week and shown on a large screen at the front of the church.
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Seems I'm not the only one then. Tony Blackburn reported on SOTS that he and his wife both tested positive.
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No Holly Willoughbooby on Dancing on Ice tonight. She’s got the covids as well.
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John Travolta was rushed into hospital yesterday with covid symptoms.
He was released today after tests revealed it was just a case of Saturday Night Fever.
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...so he's stayin' alive, then...?
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Mutations will tend to become less serious - if a mutation seriously impacts its host, it is less able to reproduce. It probably won't die out - nor have other respiratory viruses like the common cold, flu and pneumonia.
If after vaccination or infection there is a high level of resistance to serious consequences, Covid will in time simply be like other respiratory infections - endemic.
That infection rates are increasing is no great surprise as most restrictions in England were lifted only a few weeks ago. The concern would be if rates continue to increase over the coming few weeks, or begin to plateau.
We also need to understand whether Covid is the principal or substantial cause of increasing hospital admissions or death, or mainly coincidental.
We don't record as a death with the common cold anyone who in the preceding 4 weeks had a bit of a sniffle (we don't even test). We have no idea (AFAIK) how many folk die with the common cold!
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could be that its just replacing flu.
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>>Mutations will tend to become less serious
I gather that's a general rule but it might depend where you start from. The serious case and death rate isn't really material in affecting its propagation now. Smallpox propagated quite well despite a 30% mortality rate until vaccination got on top of it.
I saw some stats recently that I have not seen published in the form they were presented although the information is all in the public domain. Although, notoriously, older people are at much higher risk, essentially for all adults over 25 the increased risk of death from Covid is proportionately much the same as the increase in risk of death from all causes in all age bands.
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The Lancet was reporting last week that mortality from the omicron variant was lower than for flu; 35 deaths per 100,000 infections compared to 40.
Interestingly, the same report compared excess deaths worldwide, and though the pandemic isn’t completely over, the UKs performance is on a par with France and Germany. Sweden, with no lockdowns, did much better, and Iceland, Singapore and Australia had negative excess deaths.
www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02796-3/fulltext
Last edited by: PeterS on Mon 14 Mar 22 at 10:17
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Here in not very sunny Spain we find it strange how mask wearing varies between communities.
On the coast very few wear masks whilst outside, yet venture just a few miles inland to Gata de Gorgos, where a number of walks begin, and by far the vast majority of older Spanish residents continue to wear them outdoors.
Cafes, bars & restaurants no longer ask to see you Covid Travel Pass before being allowed entry, and although in theory masks should be worn inside hospitality venues unless seated, only a tiny number of customers, of all nationalities, do so.
Friends of mine had symptoms, tested positive, and had to isolate. Too late for me to be cautious as I’ve been car sharing, without mask wearing, with several folks these past 3 weeks.
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Excess deaths is a tricky stat. You can't easily compare excess deaths for specified periods between countries - UK has had periods of negative excess deaths in 2021 presumably because people who would 'normally' have died in the period had died earlier. UK deaths on average are weighted to earlier in the pandemic than almost all other countries. I was at a presentation on mortality risk a couple of weeks ago where charts on this were exhibited (not in public domain AFAIK).
Even looking at cumulative excess deaths is problematic because countries are at different points in the development. Ultimately of course there aren't any excess deaths at all.
I'll have a look at the Lancet link.
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The comparison with smallpox is interesting.
It had an estimated reproduction rate of 3-6 similar to initial Covid outbreak. Two main variants, one of which had a 30% mortality rate, the other 1%. Infection tended to give lifelong immunity - possibly due to the stability of the virus compared with Covid due to its long evolution.
Comparison with Covid may not lie in its severity, but that transmission over long distances was irregular in the absence of fast aviation, ship, rail and road transport.
To illustrate somewhat fatuously - if a boat set off from Plymouth carrying infected individuals on (say) an Atlantic crossing, it would either founder through lack of crew, or by the time they arrived remaining crew would be either recovering, recovered or immune.
Even land based journeys would be infrequent, lengthy, often seasonal, and frequently difficult through war etc.
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SWMBO tested positive today. I suspect it was unavoidable. She had the option to go to either of our daughters, but they've both got schoolchildren (AKA mobile bio hazards) and thought the risk with them would be just as great. I suspect she already had it when I tested positive three days ago, as the gestation period seems to be around 5-6 days generally.
Full marks to the NHS who responded with a text saying she'd receive a phone call within 24 hours to discuss medication and anti-virals. This within a couple of hours of reporting the positive test on the NHS app. I staggered up to a priority post box with her PCR test, taking care not to pass anyone on the way.
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All the best to you both...
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NHS came up trumps. SWMBO had a long phone consultation with some doctor as a result of reporting her positive test. Told anti-virals would be available for collection from local hospital and they'd contact us. Explained we'd have to arrange collection as we were both positive and they probably wouldn't want one of us wandering around the hospital, asked what ID they'd require. When hospital phoned, they said they'd have them delivered. Courier arrived soon after.
Text message received, confirming positive PCR test.
Isn't it wonderful when a plan comes together - -well done NHS.
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My daughter says a lot of her friends, mainly mothers of young children, who hadn't had Covid have currently got it.
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Our close circle of friends, 5 couples including ourselves, all vaxed, have been studiously and fairly slavishly following rules and guidance most of the time and have all avoided it.
Today I heard that three of them have it - 1 couple and one husband (they haven't got together recently so different sources). All are only mild.
I think our guard has slipped maybe, some more than others, but they'd all still be being careful.
Seems it's hard to avoid. Something I read said that while having it isn't really desirable (risk of death, long covid etc etc) having it is probably more long lasting than the jabs.
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No reflection on your friends, smokie, but looking at my friends I am not surprised. When rules relaxed I was surprised how few of them ever bothered to test. Especially those no longer working. People turn up to social events with colds (untested) and think nothing of blowing their noses, coughing and sneezing. And not once have I seen anyone washing their hands after doing so.
In fact seeing the amount of finger licking and face touching that some people do I shudder to think what they do in private.
There is also the weird idea that it’s OK to meet friends and that it’s mainly strangers who pose a risk. I even heard an MP saying that they could meet because they knew one another.
Now I know a lot of people and places are still sticking to the advice. My wife is in education and they still test suspected cases and send home any pupils that test positive. I still test if I develop any cold symptoms…….but I still mix with my more cavalier friends. Also I can be spreading infection even though I have never tested positive.
Luckily I doubt any of this matters any more. We are pretty much all going to get it at some stage and fortunately by the vast majority of us will recover.
From a early stage the general precautions were about slowing it rather than eradicating it. I know it’s still risky for vulnerable people but for the general population, for now at least, a few less fastidious habits and a more transmissible strain, are helping build immunity.
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Amazing how I didn't pick it up when I visited 2 hospitals due to poking my eye out.
Especially being a vaccine refusenik and twice having my head in one of those contraptions that examine your eyes.
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I don't believe it! Just had a phone call from my surgery checking on my welfare, even offered an oximeter (nagging daughter had already sent one). They seemed to be aware SWMBO was CEV and on anti-virals. The problems we have trying to call them!
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Been feeling carp all day. Thought it was because of lack of sleep from SWMBO coughing all night. She's now tested +ve again (3 weeks after anti-virals), but I'm clear. That'll put the house move off again!
Curiously, her LFT showed a black line immediately, before the control line showed red.
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Over 600 deaths reported yesterday.
Good to know that Johnson is getting the big calls right.
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Its a reporting blip, you need to check the moving average which is comparable to the rest of Europe.
There is plenty to have a go at BoJo for, no need to make stuff up and dilute the charges against him
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 21 Apr 22 at 21:20
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Believe me it's most certainly not gone away, we have nearly 200 positive patients with it in our hospital and half of our ITU beds have cv +ve cases in them.
The mask wearing policy is still enforce in the NHS and we often have heated disagreements with patients and relatives who are adamant that they don't have to comply.
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Not implying its gone away, its never going away and having regular hospital visits I am well aware of the rules re mask wearing. We just have to learn to live with it.
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According to
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The UK is 31st in the world for the incidence of deaths
The UK is 36th in the world for the incidence of cases.
The Uk is 21st in Europe for the incidence of deaths
The Uk is 24th in Europe for the incidence of cases.
Many prominent countries are doing far worse than the UK. It is not something to make light of.
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Well to 'live' with it within the NHS then there needs to be a major change in the IPC guidelines, currently staff still have to self-isolate for 7 days if positive and if we teat a positive case in theatre then we have to shutdown big sections of our department and then do major UV cleans, all of which is necessary but causes major delays in the operating lists.
We have patients now refusing to be tested which in turn causes big delays and disruptions to our activity as we then have to treat them as positive.
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>> Edit .... we have to shutdown
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>> ............we then have to treat them as positive.
You don't "have to", someone has decided that it should happen.
Supposing you didn't - shutdown, or treat them as positive?
Perhaps your procedures need re-examination?
Possibly?
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Last week there were ~13000 cases of Covid in hospitals. Of these ~5000 were there because of Covid - for the rest Covid was "incidental".
Around 7% of over 12s have had no vaccine (~4m). Around 15% have not had a second (~8m).
The ONS survey reports that ~1 in 15 have Covid. That is 600k people who are unvaccinated and 1.2m unvaccinated (all thing being equal)
~5000 in hospital for Covid = 1 in 100 unvaccinated, 1 in 200 with only one vaccination. Figures could be refined for demographics, age profile, risk groups etc etc.
It seems likely that it is only a very small number in hospital with Covid and properly vaccinated - probably less than flu in a normal flu year.
Living with it means that processes should change to match the real risk - not the risk that clearly prevailed pre-vaccination roll-out and improved treatments now available. The only argument for not so doing may be the risk of a further serious mutation.
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Yesterday morning's 7.38 train into Waterloo was totally rammed and very few wearing masks, so it is inevitable that the rate will be rising again.
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>> Perhaps your procedures need re-examination?
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>> Possibly?
If you were to be the next person in that theatre or bed you might want them to be treated as positive for anything likely to be harmful that they have refused to be tested for.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 22 Apr 22 at 12:53
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>> Well to 'live' with it within the NHS then there needs to be a major
>> change in the IPC guidelines,
Yes there does, It has to be and will be regraded to the same level of risk as any other infection/virus/medical condition-complication.
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"We have patients now refusing to be tested which in turn causes big delays and disruptions to our activity as we then have to treat them as positive."
Move on. Next patient please.
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>> "We have patients now refusing to be tested which in turn causes big delays and
>> disruptions to our activity as we then have to treat them as positive."
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>> Move on. Next patient please.
>>
We get some of that at the local hospital where Miss Z currently works, especially in A&E but also on her ward where visitors insist on coming in without masks.
Luckily, most of Miss Z's patients are very ill and want to get treated quickly so they don a mask and get tested as required or or otherwise go to the end of the queue. Miss Z puts up with very little crap and the nursing staff are very supportive.
Unfortunately the despite lots of "don't attack our staff posters" it happens, and the Trust, who are supposed to support criminal action against the attackers, don't, preferring to blame the victim for not managing the situation better.
(Miss Z applied a sharp knee to the groin of a patient a couple of years back in self defence.)
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Had a new patient walk into the surgery SPLIFF IN FKN HAND and then proceed to hassle reception for an appointment.
That "doctor-patient" relationship didn't work out too well for them.
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Every hospital should have a Terry McCann.
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>> Had a new patient walk into the surgery SPLIFF IN FKN HAND and then proceed
>> to hassle reception for an appointment.
And down the other end of the telescope...
One of my callers yesterday had moved back to UK recently having been with a parent in an EU country as an expat. Significant health issues. Has been trying since 01April to get registered and even an emergency appointment.
Without a fit note their claim for Universal Credit may be closed.
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England sucks butt for general practice.
Enjoy.
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If people going into hospital refuse to be tested - simply show them the way out.
The responsibility of the hospital to all other users far outweighs the consequences of exclusion for the terminally stupid and anti-social.
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>> England sucks butt for general practice.
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>> Enjoy.
>>
I wish Miss Z wanted to be a GP.
At medical school, she was stuck in a god-forsaken practice west of London, stuck out of town and she didn't drive at the time. The practice was on a TV programme and you can see Miss Z not being at all amused when the doctor is performing a prostate type exam on an elderly gent.
She's a little OCD / wants control of a situation she and thinks she would be up all night worrying about patient outcomes if she couldn't see a case from beginning to end - which isn't the case when you pass a patient on to the hospital.
I know its not been a good Friday when she has said that she has given some cash to a nurse and asked them to pop out and get a bottle of the patient's favourite drink x 2!
Last edited by: zippy on Fri 22 Apr 22 at 19:32
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61362474
I wasn't quite sure where to put this. Anyway it would appear this has legs (as they say)
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Abbot's been quick to get in the "should consider his position if he receives a fine".
The Labour infighting continues, to the detriment of their ability to be seen as a viable alternative to what must be the worst cabinet in half a century (?ever).
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Boris has written the script for Sir Keir.
1. The police say they won't investigate
2. Following more evidence (Tory=Cummings, Labour= ???) they re-open the case
3. Probably some media and political pressure
4. Insist the rules were followed at all times
5. Obvious inconsistences in the stories - bring a bottle, Angela was/was not there, planned
We now await the outcome of the police investigation. He is fortunate the police delayed announcement of their investigation until after the local elections - he may not have achieved even the fairly unremarkable outcome he did.
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>> Boris has written the script for Sir Keir.
>> We now await the outcome of the police investigation. He is fortunate the police delayed
>> announcement of their investigation until after the local elections - he may not have achieved
>> even the fairly unremarkable outcome he did.
I think it's certain there was media and political pressure applied to the Durham Constabulary. The media pressure was informed by political messages. There'll be no evidence of political pressure, not even 30 years later when the papers are opened, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen.
Whether Angela was there is a red herring. If it was a work meeting then her presence makes no difference.
However if it's correct that somebody, it may have been local organisers rather than Starmer or his office, invited people to a follow up social then he's in trouble. Reports that the local MP, Mary Foy, suggested folks "Have a greasy night" - local slang for getting bladdered - mean it looks even worse.
Starmer may be able to deny seeing the invites but he was still present.
He over played his hand my suggesting the PM should resign while under investigation. If he's fined then he's totally hoisted by his own petard; difficult to see how he can avoid resigning.
Time to open a book on his successor?
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sun 8 May 22 at 11:37
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Will he resign or move on to the next part of the Boris script - I know I have done wrong, sincerely apologise, there are more important things I need to do - eg:
- Boris - Ukraine, cost of living etc
- Keir - cost of living, ousting corrupt Tory govt etc
Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely. Even voting Green or Lib Dem is probably a limited strategy as in power they would become corrupt!
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^ “the god in men is also the devil the moment it begins to masticate on the morsels of power.”
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>> He over played his hand my suggesting the PM should resign while under investigation. If
>> he's fined then he's totally hoisted by his own petard; difficult to see how he
>> can avoid resigning.
Easy, Boris didn't, so he doesn't have to. Has Boris gone he would be in a world of trouble
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>>
>> Starmer may be able to deny seeing the invites but he was still present.
>>
>> He over played his hand my suggesting the PM should resign while under investigation. If
>> he's fined then he's totally hoisted by his own petard; difficult to see how he
>> can avoid resigning.
>>
>> Time to open a book on his successor?
Apparently BJ said to spads that the campaign on Durham was one of the most successful ever run by Conservative Central Office or whatever it's called now.
I think it's he and his media supporters who have overplayed. If Starmer is fined then they can hardly demand his resignation unless Johnson goes.
There is also the small difference that BJ os the PM and it was his own government's rules that he and others were breaking. And the outrageous false equivalence of comparing a campaign meeting with the many gatherings and pattern of behaviour at Downing Street.
The Mail headline yesterday was beyond irony. And I don't think the smear has really landed, because everybody can see that Starmer's transgression if there is one is by far the lesser.
www.thepaperboy.com/uk/daily-mail/front-pages-today.cfm
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As far as I know KS supported the rules - and likely would have wanted more robust restrictions.
Which transgression is the lesser - if issued with a FPN KS would still be adjudged to have broken the law. It matters not whether someone steals £5 or £50 - it is still theft.
BJ is unlikely to resign over Partygate, although there may be other reasons for him to be pushed - Brexit fall-out (eg: NI), Covid reports placing him at fault, misleading Parliament.
Given his record, even if KS feels the need to fall on his sword, it is questionable whether BJ will follow. KS has played the self-righteous indignation card and may have lost, BJ is either thick skinned, unprincipled, or both.
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I thought I'd read somewhere that Durham police weren't going to issue retrospective fines, but would investigate.
Although he's already said he won't be resigning, which in itself is quite interesting.
I saw Nandy try and suggest they weren't of the same equivalence. It may well be true I'm not sure it's a line that they should take.
Mind you if he did go who would replace him?
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>> I saw Nandy try and suggest they weren't of the same equivalence. It may well
>> be true I'm not sure it's a line that they should take.
>>
>> Mind you if he did go who would replace him?
Nandy?
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Another perspective from Adam Wagner - Human Rights Lawyer:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/08/leaked-beergate-memo-could-clear-starmer-lawyer-believes
In brief, the purpose of the meal was a continuation of the political event and thus work.
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Grasping at straws.
And do you think it really matters now whether he can slime his way out of this on a technicality?
It's his character that is on trial.
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>> Grasping at straws.
>>
>> And do you think it really matters now whether he can slime his way out
>> of this on a technicality?
Business was permitted. Social was not.
Crux not technicality.
My personal view is that Starmer is on a sticky wicket because he over played his hand when Johnson was first under investigation.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 9 May 22 at 09:10
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>Business was permitted. Social was not.
>Crux not technicality.
Totally irrelevant to how the affair is perceived by the majority of voters not aligned to any particular party and the longer that Labour bang on about it, the worse it will get.
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>> Grasping at straws.
>>
>> And do you think it really matters now whether he can slime his way out
>> of this on a technicality?
The writer is a lawyer, that's what they do. Of course none of the technicalities matter, it's what the public think that matters.
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>> It's his character that is on trial.
True. But Johnson isn't going to win that contest.
I don't need an enquiry to believe Starmer is fundamentally an honest man and Johnson is a charlatan. It's hard to really judge people on a filtered persona but I'm confident on that.
However I have to accept that Johnson still has a lot of fans. The odd thing is, I haven't knowingly met one recently that doesn't agree that he is a clown and a liar - they just don't care. Even he and his party don't seem to dispute that, hence "he gets the big calls right", with the sub-text "even though he has illegally progued parliament and lied throughout his career".
What those people tend to say about Starmer is "he's boring", "he's not really a leader", "he's not a good orator", none of which relates to his integrity or inherent ability.
I do think Starmer overdoes the high moral tone - it just doesn't play well. The contrast between his conduct and Johnson's is there to be seen, and it would be easy to remind people every so often that Johnson is fundamentally untrustworthy without appearing so priggish.
Que sera sera. Starmer resigning won't rehabilitate Johnson.
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>True. But Johnson isn't going to win that contest.
>...
>The odd thing is, I haven't knowingly met one recently that doesn't
>agree that he is a clown and a liar - they just don't care.
Which tells me that he's already won that contest and repeating the "Yeah but, Boris did this, Boris did that" is a waste of time and actually counter productive. It's going to need a new approach to dislodge him.
>..it would be easy to remind people every so often that Johnson is
>fundamentally untrustworthy without appearing so priggish.
Reminding people of their previous cockups never really goes down well I've found.
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It only works if you are always right, always blameless and have all the next valid ideas. Invariably tho it's always glass houses, or there but for the grace of..........
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>>repeating the "Yeah but, Boris
>> did this, Boris did that" is a waste of time and actually counter productive. It's
>> going to need a new approach to dislodge him.
Good point.
>> Reminding people of their previous cockups never really goes down well I've found.
You're right of course.
Ordinarily I'd suggest starting a persuasive argument with agreement on Johnson's successes, but I can't think of any.
Maybe "Johnson was clearly the man needed at the time to get Brexit out of impasse it was stuck in, now we need someone to deal with the detail and build the new relationships with Europe and elsewhere..."
But something has happened that is not going to change, 'social media'. Now the mob, and the anti-mob, can be mobilised so much more easily than was the case in the pre-internet era. Extreme polarisation is the result. As ever the fascist elements find a ready market and now they have easy access.. The idiots and wreckers have more power than the ordinary folk, because they have large share of voice and aren't constrained by truth.
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Which tells me that he's already won that contest and repeating the "Yeah but, Boris
>> did this, Boris did that" is a waste of time and actually counter productive. It's
>> going to need a new approach to dislodge him.
Problem is I don't think they have a plan b. They don't seem to have many ideas about how to put clear water between them and the government in terms of winning a GE.
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>> Problem is I don't think they have a plan b. They don't seem to have
>> many ideas about how to put clear water between them and the government in terms
>> of winning a GE.
'Boris' is a strong brand. What I mean by that is that 'customers' buy into what they think he is and tend to stick with that even to the point of irrationality.
There is a saying that reputations are made by many acts and lost by one, and that can be true when there is no 'love', but for some the odious exudes a chumminess that seems to make him immune. Rather than abandon him, they tell themselves he's doing a good job so it doesn't matter, or "they're all the same" et cetera. Starmer is undeniably low on this sort of charisma, hollow as it is.
The illusion that Johnson is a man of the people, counter to all available experience, will take a bit of shifting but when he goes, as he eventually must, people will find it easier to abandon the Conservatives provided there is a reason to do so.
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> 'Boris' is a strong brand. What I mean by that is that 'customers' buy into
>> what they think he is and tend to stick with that even to the point
>> of irrationality.
There is a saying that reputations are made by many acts and lost by one,
>> and that can be true when there is no 'love', but for some the odious
>> exudes a chumminess that seems to make him immune. Rather than abandon him, they tell
>> themselves he's doing a good job so it doesn't matter, or "they're all the same"
>> et cetera. Starmer is undeniably low on this sort of charisma, hollow as it is.
I'm not sure why people need to be like someone to vote for them. There seems to be some idea (modern or otherwise) that if they don't like a politician (or other public figure) and don't get the appeal then no one should. Or if they are somehow 'elite' then no one working class/normal member of the public should like or vote for them.
Tbh I find this idea more bizarre than, say, anyone voting for the Government. Perhaps as you say it's an offshoot of the online polarisation.
> as he eventually must, people
>> will find it easier to abandon the Conservatives provided there is a reason to do
>> so.
I wouldn't say waiting until the government run out of steam or go past their sell by date is much of a plan either. I suppose it's better than nothing.
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" the odious exudes a chumminess "
I love it!
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Well he's made his statement and will go if fined. A risky strategy but it's clear to all. He might well pull it off, could be tricky if the police don't fine him but don't exonerate him either.
Could be a long 2 months.
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>> Well he's made his statement and will go if fined. A risky strategy but it's
>> clear to all.
Smart move, takes the pressure off, and if he passes the police test, puts him on a higher moral plane than BoJo.
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Barnard Castle falls under Durham Constabulary.
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Curry and a beer at the end of a day electioneering is probably fairly normal. Conversation may well have slipped between social and work related. All quite unremarkable, not an offence IMHO.
Drinks after work in the garden of No 10 when the weather allows may be normal practice. Conversations probably a mix of social small talk and work related. Illegal and FPNs issued.
I don't really see the difference. Perhaps beer and curry is is sustenance for the working man, yet prosecco and birthday cake is elitist toff food.
Lawyers get involved. Media sense a story. Politicians get defensive and display odd memory lapses - who was there, was it pre-meditated, was it really work etc etc. Defending either KS or BJ seems underpinned by political affiliation or sympathies, not logic.
IMHO this was never worth pursuing - there are far more important issues needing action. It is a testament to the very low level of public esteem in which politicians are justifiably held in seeking to achieve political goals through the manipulation of trivia.
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Starmer says he will resign if he is fined. That's integrity.
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It is Starmer's way out of the corner he painted himself into.
Demanding Boris resign for having wine & cake in the Downing St garden and being fined.
In doing so he set the bar of resignation for himself.
Hence, he said he will resign if fined by police.
If he is merely warned over his "curry & beer" with 30 people he figures he can stay in his position as leader of the opposition. The "Fine" being the trigger to resignation NOT the actual curry & beer with 30 people
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I don't think he had to do that at all.
He could just say "Let's wait for the result of the investigation" which would put him beyond criticism from Johnson. And even if it went the wrong way he could easily separate himself from the 'precedent' he set with Johnson - he's not the Prime Minister for a start
That's before you get to the overall pattern, multiple parties at Downing Street, "I wasn't there", "I was there but it wasn't a party", "I was only there for 10 minutes", "wait for the Sue Gray report", "let's see what conclusions the Met comes to", etc.
Nevertheless Starmer has done the right thing, and if Johnson was in any way an honourable man Starmer would have him pinned now. Starmer has made it clear that for himself, it's a resigning issue even though there's probably more wiggle room when it's not his own rules he was breaking.
Johnson (Eton, Oxford, Bullingdon) absolutely hates Starmer, and derides him as a member of the metropolitan elite and out of touch with voters. Yet Johnson treats the electorate with contempt, his brazenly to deceive and manipulate.
How about this for shameless cronyism?
"In March, Oluwole Kolade was made a non-executive director and deputy chair of NHS England for three years. In just over a decade, Kolade has donated £859,342 to Conservative party headquarters... About a third of the donations – £300,000 – have been made since Boris Johnson became prime minister.
The government’s public appointments website said the appointing department was Javid’s and added: “Kolade has made a donation to the Conservative party.”
Kolade is a managing partner of Livingbridge, a private equity firm with extensive investments in private healthcare. On its website the company said it “has made a private equity investment in the healthcare and education sector in almost every single year for the past two decades”. Livingbridge’s portfolio includes multiple NHS suppliers, and private dental companies, care providers and fertility firms."
www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/06/labour-question-tories-cronyism-row-donors-public-health-jobs-nhs
Last edited by: Manatee on Tue 10 May 22 at 09:57
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KS is selling his commitment to resign as evidence of his integrity and demonstrate the high standards expected of those holding high public office. An easy win when up against BJ.
An alternative view is that he has completely politicised the investigation. The police will be very aware they will either (a) be seen as complicit in the removal of the leader of the opposition, or (b) assumed by many to have failed to do their job properly due to political pressure.
He should have let the investigation run its course, and resigned if guilty - an unambiguous test of integrity. His actions demonstrate political tactics at least influence, or even dominate principle.
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>>An alternative view is that he has completely politicised the investigation.
Too late for that. The Conservatives (and the Mail) threw everything at smearing Starmer, and Johnson told some spads it was the most successful such campaign central office had ever run when Durham police announced that they would re-investigate. I did wonder at the time if they had thought about what might happen next; I guess they were focused on the local elections.
If anything, Starmer has under-politicised and underplayed a strong position. Instead of taking on the smears enthusiastically and seizing on suggestions that it is a resigning matter and turning it back on Johnson, he has been trying to minimise discussion of them presumably to try and limit the airtime spent on them.
As it is, Starmer now has impeccable credentials to continue impugning Johnson's integrity whichever way it goes. And whilst it would be inconvenient, and in my view the country's loss to lose a potential PM of Starmer's intelligence and honesty it will be worth it to sink Johnson who shames us all. And there are a couple of decent prospects for the Labour leadership in the offing. If Starmer can torpedo a few more Corbynites before he goes, so much the better.
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I just find the whole Partygate/Beergate circus is becoming a tad tiresome. It's a good job there's nothing more important to keep the £$%^wits in SW1A occupied.
>Starmer says he will resign if he is fined. That's integrity.
Mmmm.
Starmer hand picks three journos to tell them that he'll resign if plod do something they've previously said that they won't do.
He does so before they've had a chance to even investigate the so-called 'new evidence'. The same tactic used by Blair to influence the Met in the Cash for Honours affair.
I think my dictionary must be out of date.
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There is a suggestion that the Durham Police & Crime Commissioner was also at 'Beergate'. Hmmm!!?? Not that would influence Durham Constabulary's approach of course. Without Fear or Favour.
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It would be foolish to use the threat of resignation to try and influence the police. It could be counterproductive given the scrutiny the force will get.
I didn't know about 3 journos. Labour members got an email from Starmer about it.
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I suspect voters are losing or have already lost any real interest in Party or Beer Gate. All the characteristics of a TV soap.
It doesn't really matter what KS says or does - it seems unlikely that it will lead to a BJ resignation even if he accumulates a few more FPNs.
Will KS go if found guilty - possibly, possibly not, he may even stand for re-election (and be re-elected having demonstrated his integrity).
Will it matter come the next election in 30 months time - probably very little - folk will be more concerned with inflation/cost of living, unemployment, negative EU fall out (eg NI), Covid public enquiries.
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>> Starmer says he will resign if he is fined. That's integrity.
Keir Starmer cleared by police over Durham lockdown beers.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62095955
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61422144
Dear me, thats over a hundred fines now for the Torees,
quote "The latest Met update screams two things: scale and culture. Covid law-breaking, involving loads of people, happened for months on end, at the heart of a government led by Boris Johnson.
While millions of people made colossal sacrifices to live within rules devised in Downing Street, behind that door, and others in Whitehall, the rules were being ignored, broken."
I think it puts Starmer and the labour curry and beer meeting into its proper perspective.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 12 May 22 at 14:17
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>>
>> While millions of people made colossal sacrifices to live within rules devised in Downing Street,
>> behind that door, and others in Whitehall, the rules were being ignored, broken."
It was very difficult for her family (including her 8 year old daughter) to see our God-Daughter when she was in the hospice.
Shame on them.
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>> It was very difficult for her family (including her 8 year old daughter) to see
>> our God-Daughter when she was in the hospice.
Is there a typo in there?
Who is her?
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>> Is there a typo in there?
>>
>> Who is her?
Hey! you have been sacked. Get back to your gardening.
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>Hey! you have been sacked. Get back to your gardening.
Hey, leave him alone.
He's trying.
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It's very sweet of you to defend me. But, I was simply trying to make sense of one of Zippy's middle of the night compositions.
I repeat - who is "her"?
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>It's very sweet of you to defend me...
You're now becoming very trying.
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Grammar isn’t my strong point.
My god daughter was sick with cancer over lockdown. She passed away last year aged 35.
It was difficult getting permission for my god daughter’s daughter permission to visit her at the hospice.
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Very sorry, zippy.
I apologise for any confusion. I was not sure to whom you were referring.
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No apologies necessary, I can see how it caused confusion.
I can't get to sleep sometimes and become a keyboard worrier and don't always proof read.
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Keyboard worrier, very good! Me too.
Seriously, it's just dawned on me that I am not quite the same person I was 2 years ago. I think it's possibly a combination of having the house fire and 2 year building project plus (and possibly more tellingly) the social isolation of Covid. I seem more anxious than I used to be, I can't be bothered with people generally, and some days I don't feel up to making decisions and I really have to grit my teeth and get on with it.
It's probably been a gradual process but this week I was worriting about something and I thought "this is ridiculous, a couple of years ago I would just have made that decision and got on with it".
Anyway I've decided I'm not having it, whatever it is, so I shall make an effort to re-engage socially and see if I can get back to 'normal'.
Last edited by: Manatee on Fri 13 May 22 at 17:29
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>>the social isolation of Covid.
It's not just this.
We found, when building our house, thirtyeight years ago, that our social life disappered almost completely. We only met one close couple, and relatives for eighteen months, and lost touch completely with many friends.
In that time, everyone moves on, and you don't see the gradual changes.
You aren't part of their story, and vice versa.
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>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61557064
>>
I don't know anyone who cares. I think the great unwashed have more important things to worry about now and just want to move on.
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Well I care. The sooner we get rid of this buffoon the better before he drags down the reputation of this country throughout the world any further.
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They like him in Ukraine ;-)
Seriously though, what would Labour have done where we'd be better off? They'd still have had to see Brexit through, I doubt if they'd have dealt with Covid any better and the cost of living crisis is largely out of the governments hands.
Boris is an old rogue who long ago ditched any integrity he may have had, but all politicians are ruthless b'steds as they couldn't succeed without stepping on toes and knifing people in the back. It's that sort of business.
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>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61557064
>>
It's irrelevant. Yawn. So what? Does it matter?
Who was harmed by him drinking and making a speech?
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>> It's irrelevant. Yawn. So what? Does it matter?
+1.
It was chip paper wrapping over 6 months ago. Why do they have to keep bringing it up over and over again?
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"It's irrelevant. Yawn. So what? Does it matter"
Have we come so far that when our Prime MInister breaks the laws his Government passed and openly lies about it we just shrug?
When our Prime Minister decides to tear up a Treaty he himself negotiated we think that's OK?
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It would be newsworthy if he was drinking the hand sanitiser.
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People are bothered about whatever they like to bothered about, there's no real set rule. Or not many anyway.
The public make their own minds up about what's bending the rules and what's ps taking, they by and large don't like being told what they should think is important and what isnt. If the last few years have told us anything it's that.
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Apparently there are another 400+ photos of the same party (wow that many?), some have said that this will be the final straw but of course he's going to come up with something... also what are the Met going to say?
Yes we should move on but they keep putting their foot in it... we had our first confirmed Monkey Pox case in theatres last week, all staff who came in contact are now isolating for 21 days... this is going to hit us with staffing levels as this period is so long.
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He's Toast, The tory party wont be elected with him in charge and everyone knows it. Thats why its old news.
You need a degree of luck to get re-elected. Lets see his record.
Covid, Global supply chain breakdown, Economic chaos, Global food shortage, Ok not all his fault, and unlike Thatcher, his face saving war is not one he can win,
Toast.
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>>
>>
>> When our Prime Minister decides to tear up a Treaty he himself negotiated we think
>> that's OK?
>>
>>
>>
All Prime Ministers, Presidents, Monarchs etc tear up treaties when it no longer suits them. As for lockdown breeches, it was a bit naughty but it is no more than a misdemeanor in most peoples eyes, he didn't rob a bank or murder anyone. Churchill was an alcoholic who tried to persuade the Americans to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. Kennedy shagged anything in a skirt and is believed by many to have had Marilyn Monroe bumped off, Wilson aided and abetted Lord Boothby who committed perjury in suing the Mirror for reporting his affair with Ronnie Kray.
It's dirty at the top and Boris is no worse than most and better than many.
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So who is actually drip leaking these photos? Cummings?
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>> >>
>> >>
>> All Prime Ministers, Presidents, Monarchs etc tear up treaties when it no longer suits
>> them.
Do they ? Britain was once renowned for not breaking them. Indeed did not Margaret Thatcher once famously say “Britain does not break treaties”. Not a woman I particularly admired but she had a degree of integrity that is sadly lacking in the bumbling liar and incompetent that now resides at number 10.
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Calm down. Think about it, if you kick Bunter out, who in the Tory party will replace him? hmmm? Not a good thought is it.
Nothing we can do about it now, we have to wait for the next election and kick the whole mob out, and live with the other mob for a few years. They wont be any better - It was ever thus.
When you live in a country that is 51% idiots, all you can do is weave your way through the whirlpools that could suck you to despair.
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What we may each think is irrelevant - democracy (which is worth protecting) allows us all to make a choice come a general election - just need to wait a little over 2 years.
Expecting Boris to "do the decent thing" is not a realistic proposition. Only the Tory party can unseat him - they have (probably) 18 months to decide and identify an alternative.
I doubt that Brexit, Covid, cost of living crisis etc would have been handled any better by an alternative government - just different mistakes and misjudgements.
Boris will assert the police have independently investigated events. They had access to the Sue Grey report and any other statements and material they wanted. Therefore there can be no further evidence of offences requiring fresh investigation.
He will claim that No.10 culture has been radically overhauled as a result of her conclusions.
He will reiterate his apology. The only issue outstanding is whether he deliberately mislead Parliament - the jury is still out.
Personal view - the opposition is desperately trying to keep alive a story about which much of the public have become increasingly bored. The Boris/Sue meeting is a further muddying of the waters with no evidence or substance of anything inappropriate.
Sir Keir may be more exposed than Boris - if the police apply the same rigorous standards to his alleged "breach" it may be he who is left jobless after setting the hares running on Boris.
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Brexit could have been handled much better. It could have been executed much more along the lines along which it was sold, and it very much should have been. It wasn't sold on the basis that it would be used to shield the Conservative's clients from taxation and to lower standards so they could make more money.
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Partygate is probably not going to bring Johnson down in the short term but those pictures will stick in people’s minds and will act as a shorthand reference to his lack of integrity and selfish behaviour for years to come. I can’t see the opposition not using them repeatedly in an election. He is finished. I have no doubt his replacement before the next election is a matter of urgent consideration.
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>> He is finished. I have no doubt his
>> replacement before the next election is a matter of urgent consideration.
Have you seen the list of possibles? It is at best, uninspiring, at worse down right frightening.
Bunter is best left in place because a: you know what sh you are dealing with, and b: it means most of the current front bench will be out of power come next election.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 24 May 22 at 13:14
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>I can’t see the opposition not using them repeatedly in an election. He is finished...
I think that there is a very real danger that the opposition will just be seen as hypocritical shirt-stirrers if Rayner doesn't keep her gob shut.
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17 year old granddaughter finished her exams yesterday.
Edinburgh Airport 5am she discovered the NHS Scotland app did not work
Downloaded an update - no luck still not working
Then was told by Ryanair to download the Spanish App - installed it looked at the Scottish data -
verified, Green Tick and a QR Code appeared. Magic!!!
Handy to know if you find yourself in a similar position when you are heading for the sun!
This was introduced last November - details on the NHS website- unknown to me or my son who was thinking her 5 day trip would be abandoned.
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When I flew to Alicante 10 May departures simply asked if you had documents to prove vaccination. They didn’t look.
At Alicante landslide it was ‘random checks’ for proof of vaccination...a limited team were stopping 1 in 20 .
In February everyone had to show vaccination status.
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After a tricky year (pre-Covid) at Gatwick SWMBO insists all the key required docs are printed out. It does focus the mind in advance and really isn't that onerous.
I've mentioned here before the time I broke my phone while on a solo journey in Europe, en route at night-time to my first AirBnB. I had no idea where it was or how to get there. However my solution now is to carry at least two phones, both of which take the same SIM, and load all details on both, not print stuff out!!
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Good news
Granddaughter was asked at LPA immigration for her Covid status - showed the Spanish App that
had picked up the Scottish Data. Waved through !!
Last edited by: Falkirk Bairn on Tue 31 May 22 at 14:45
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Who says lightning does not strike twice!
A son left his home in Texas on the 21st May - Australia for 4 days, weekend in Singapore and 2 days in Kuala Lumpur. All fine getting there.
Today his US App cannot access the required codes to get on a plane back - sitting in his hotel room awaiting the Centre in US to contact him ............. the flight leaves in a few hours - no codes = no flights although patently his jabs were up to date for Australia, Singapore and in Malaysia on Sunday night!
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A friend went to a family wedding last week, fourteen guests have reported as testing positive, so far.
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>> Does anyone care now?
>>
Still participating in the COVID survey. £25 each for a swab test and a blood sample every month for the last two years. Due to end in a couple of months although there may be a new smaller survey.
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Down to £20 now!
Ours is still ongoing.
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I had to larf yesterday as I shook hands with a local couple. He said, I suppose it's okay to shake hands now.
I replied that I haven't been vaccinated, neither have we, came the reply!
He is an undertaker and she is a teacher. I remarked that he must have seen plenty of stiffs in his time - how long do you reckon I've got?
He gave me a good look over and replied 15 years.
:o)
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Triple jabbed, healthy & fit junior doctor, aged 27, at Miss Z's hospital is just out of Intensive Care after spending 8 days on a ventilator and family, friends and colleagues very worried.
I haven't posted earlier as it was not clear if this would be good news or not. The Dr. is on a ward now and making a good recovery, if not a little "shell shocked".
Definitely COVID. Don't know the strain.
Full recovery is not expected to be quick.
Last edited by: zippy on Wed 22 Jun 22 at 21:53
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Someone one of my children knows is doing research on long term effects, specifically on the brain, and has made some recent comments...
A lot of the effects seem to be related to blood clotting, including in lungs where it can cause a serious reduction in capacity, also heart and brain. Other effects are on auto-immunity. It is now thought that an outbreak of hepatitis in children was caused by post-Covid immune system dysfunction and a number have needed transplants.
We are just coming out of a dip in infections between variants. BA4/5 (basically Omicron 4 and 5 and almost the same) are on the rise, and are both more infectious and vaccine resistant than their predecessor, which basically determines which new variants take over. It's not certain whether they are more severe, but there is some indication they might be.
Resistance is dropping as the vaccine wears out. If you had Omicron 2 (March onwards) you should have reasonable resistance to these; original Omicron (Dec/Jan/Feb) confers little resistance to them.
We have moved on to 'living with it', but really we are no nearer being 'through it'. Long Covid is real, it is now known that Omicron 1/2 caused it in some sufferers, although vaccination reduces incidence by up to 40%. Covid is therefore still well worth avoiding if possible. Masks work, especially FFP2/3, ventilation is good.
For ourselves, the boss and I have taken to wearing masks again in busy places and will continue to do so for the time being. We will take any further vaccine going.
P.S. - just watching a news item on Glasto. That looks like a serious super-spreader.
Last edited by: Manatee on Wed 22 Jun 22 at 22:30
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SWMBO had her fifth yesterday, so she's had a couple of AZ's, a couple of Pfizer's and now a moderna. They've all made her feel rough with increasing intensity. We're invited to a golden wedding meal on Sunday and with the rising rate I'm reluctant to go because of her vulnerability, but she's determined.
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Work colleague tested positive for it yesterday. Triple jabbed.
Totally grounded, body aching all over, no appetite and sleeping pretty much constantly.
My guard is well and truly down, not wearing mask, not doing tests. Out socialising and making up for lost time. Hope I don’t regret it.
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Doing tests won't stop you getting it, mask-wearing might. We have decided we won't stop doing normal stuff but we will do what we reasonably can to reduce our chances of getting it, hence the masks.
I'm now convinced that long term effects can be very nasty; I think I've seen it estimated that long Covid affects maybe 20% of cases.
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>> I'm now convinced that long term effects can be very nasty; I think I've seen
>> it estimated that long Covid affects maybe 20% of cases.
That would be 4.5 million cases in the UK. If that were the case It would be much higher profile
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>>
>> >> I'm now convinced that long term effects can be very nasty; I think I've
>> seen
>> >> it estimated that long Covid affects maybe 20% of cases.
>>
>> That would be 4.5 million cases in the UK. If that were the case It
>> would be much higher profile
Not necessarily, it depends on degree and clearly that can only be an estimate - I certainly know several people who've had it months ago and say they are not right yet, but they have not had any formal follow up.. I agree that if 20% were having serious lung capacity reduction or big brain clots there would be more noise.
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I’ve yet to see any article explaining the physiological causes of “long covid”. I think the jury is still out as to what it really is and why some people are susceptible to it.
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Self Isolation Rules - CGNorwich
