Non-motoring > The Ukraine - Volume 3   [Read only]
Thread Author: VxFan	Replies: 146

Mon 7 Mar 22 10:49    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - VxFan

***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 4 ***** ============================================================= Continuing discussion. Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 19 Mar 22 at 21:08

Fri 4 Mar 22 13:25    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Rudedog

Looks like there has been national cyber security warning sent out to all NHS trusts, we've had this emailed to us all... Due to recent global events we have enhanced our security platform to protect the Trust from potential breaches. Effective immediately traffic destined to and originating from the following nations will be blocked: • Russia • Belarus • North Korea • Iran • China

Fri 4 Mar 22 13:33    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

>> Looks like there has been national cyber security warning sent out to all NHS trusts, >> we've had this emailed to us all... >> We have seen a real upsurge in emails arriving with dodgy attachments.

Sat 5 Mar 22 10:10    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

...as has already been noted, Flightradar24 gives an interesting insight into what is/might be happening day-to-day. In addition to the various surveillance flights, there's been an awful lot of military heavy lift to the Polish border adjacent to Lviv (by just about every Western airforce you could name). Currently there is a Russian "Special Flight Squadron" Ilyushin heading from St Petersburg to Washington 8-O (RSD088). It's intriguing, since I believe the US have closed its airspace to Russian flights, so it is ostensibly by special arrangement, but it hasn't been allowed over Finland/Norway/Sweden, having initially gone North to circumvent these. Hmmm.

Sat 5 Mar 22 10:40    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Kevin

Unusual flights into Rzeszow as well this morning, including a C32-A which is normally reserved for the real bigwigs, a C17 from Brize and DC87 from Prestwick. The C32 passed over the airfield at 2000ft and did a tight 360 before landing. A couple of Black-Hawks were standing off but no military escorts, or at least none with transponders switched on. Yesterday morning a load of small (10/12 passenger size) military jets from Greece, Italy, Spain, Croatia etc flew into Brussels around 7am. The Belgians had F16s tootling around all day. At about the same time a couple of B52s were stacked over Nuremberg 1000ft apart before heading east and going off track. EDIT: The B52s appeared again late afternoon and landed at Fairford about 7pm. Last edited by: Kevin on Sat 5 Mar 22 at 10:43

Sat 5 Mar 22 11:56    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

>>...... including a C32-A which is normally reserved for the real bigwigs....... >> ...that one would appear to be Blinken... Not sure about the Russian Presidential Fleet flight to Washington, though...

Sat 5 Mar 22 12:15    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

The Dc8 belongs to Samaritans Purse which appears to be a Christian Humanitarian charity. It's visited Birmingham a few times in the past. www.samaritanspurse.org/article/pray-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine/ Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sat 5 Mar 22 at 12:17

Wed 9 Mar 22 16:39    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

Samaritans Purse DC8 is now on its way home after delivering a Field Hospital. Currently over the North Sea at 40,000 feet. Should cross UK in next hour or so. May need to refuel in Europe before setting course over the pond. Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Wed 9 Mar 22 at 16:41

Wed 9 Mar 22 19:46    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Kevin

When I first checked at around 6am this morning there were two C17s already shuttling stuff back and forth between Ramstein and Rzeszow which I haven't noticed that early before. They were crossing at the halfway point so I guess they were allowing time for loading/unloading. At the same time there were another two C17s inbound from Kansas passing over Belgium heading east, with a couple of Belgian F16s already up and a tanker and E-3 over Poland. Don't know what's been happening the rest of the day but I see that SAM526 is over Denmark at the moment.

Wed 9 Mar 22 20:08   Non Conventional weapons - Zero

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60683248 It has always been part of Russian attack doctrine, and now under pressure of failure they might be tempted.

Wed 9 Mar 22 21:18   Non Conventional weapons - Robin O'Reliant

>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60683248 >> >> It has always been part of Russian attack doctrine, and now under pressure of failure >> they might be tempted. >> I was half listening to R4 this morning while I was busy and caught an answer from someone about the possibility of a third world war and heard the rather chilling opinion that, "It has already started, it just hasn't escalated yet".

Wed 9 Mar 22 20:57    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

>> >> Don't know what's been happening the rest of the day but I see that SAM526 >> is over Denmark at the moment. >> ...it's off to Warsaw. "About those MIGs; I can't go to 28 F16s, but make it 10, and we might have a deal". I wonder if they might resuscitate the deal, transfer the MIGs to Ramstein, and just leave them there under US ownership simply training and waiting.

Wed 9 Mar 22 21:24    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Kevin

How long does it take to hacksaw the wings off a MIG-29 and shove it in the back of a C17?

Wed 9 Mar 22 21:29   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

>> How long does it take to hacksaw the wings off a MIG-29 and shove it >> in the back of a C17? >> depends if you want it to fly again...

Wed 9 Mar 22 23:26   Ukraine - Volume 3 - smokie

It's bad enough driving a cut 'n' shut, let alone flying one!!

Thu 10 Mar 22 08:11   Ukraine - Volume 3 - tyrednemotional

>> >> depends if you want it to fly again... >> ...I think he envisaged MIG welding them back on again first......

Sat 5 Mar 22 16:08    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - sooty123

> >> Not sure about the Russian Presidential Fleet flight to Washington, though... >> Picking up kicked out diplomats/spies.

Sat 5 Mar 22 16:20    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

>> Picking up kicked out diplomats/spies. What was the Cold War phrase - Activities Incompatible With Their Diplomatic Status?

Sat 5 Mar 22 21:01   Where's he Blinken going? - tyrednemotional

>> >>...... including a C32-A which is normally reserved for the real bigwigs....... >> >> >> >> ...that one would appear to be Blinken... >> ...and heading off further East now! Either its Moldova (or Bucharest if he hangs a sharp right) or he's defecting ;-)

Sun 6 Mar 22 22:28   Where's he Blinken going? - Kevin

Well, Blinken's been a busy boy the last couple of days. He left Moldova late this afternoon and flew to Vilnius. Reports now online that he's persuaded frontline states operating Russian fighter aircraft to send some of them to Ukraine. That'll ratchet Putin's BP up a notch or two.

Sun 6 Mar 22 22:48   Where's he Blinken going? - tyrednemotional

>> Well, Blinken's been a busy boy the last couple of days. >> >> He left Moldova late this afternoon and flew to Vilnius. Reports now online that he's >> persuaded frontline states operating Russian fighter aircraft to send some of them to Ukraine. >> >> That'll ratchet Putin's BP up a notch or two. >> ...the Swiss Toni approach.. "owning an F16 is like making love to a beautiful woman. Would you like to trade your Sukhoi or Mig in for one?"

Sun 6 Mar 22 22:53   Where's he Blinken going? - Zero

Its a good way of clearing the Russian inventory out of the Nato air arsenal, and get everyone singing from the same flight manual. Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 7 Mar 22 at 10:47

Mon 7 Mar 22 08:23   Where's he Blinken going? - Bromptonaut

>> Well, Blinken's been a busy boy the last couple of days. >> >> He left Moldova late this afternoon and flew to Vilnius. Reports now online that he's >> persuaded frontline states operating Russian fighter aircraft to send some of them to Ukraine. There are lots of numbers circulating as to how many Migs are available in Poland etc. Some estimates include at least one that's been lost in an accident. Donor countries may be unwilling to decimate their own capacity and backfilling with (say) F16s will not be straightforward. All sorts of logistical problems including modifications and NATO kit we don't want falling into Russian hands. Soviet era kit is robust but high maintenance and spares, even without sanctions, could be an issue. And that's before the risk of Putin seeing it as the west joining in and lobbing ordnance into Poland. Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 7 Mar 22 at 08:25

Sat 5 Mar 22 12:01    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Rudedog

Pee'd me off with the callers to the radio saying about a no-fly zone and how little they thought the 'west' was doing... if only they could see the constant number of refuelling tankers and communication-jamming aircraft that are leaving here and European airbases doing 6+ hr sorties they might change they opinion. On another note it did surprise me that Russians are still allowed to cross the boarders in neighbouring countries for 'day trips' to do they shopping and have a break.... R4 were doing interviews with students crossing into Finland.

Sat 5 Mar 22 12:33    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

>> Pee'd me off... And of course, if the tankers are there, so are the fighters, just with transponders off and the RAF have been flying to the area from Cyprus. >>Crossing borders... In this instance, I wish sanctions would apply to the entire Russian population. They might then get the idea that the world are hacked off with their leadership.

Sat 5 Mar 22 12:37    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Manatee

I think the Russians are also pretty hacked off with their leadership and want the war stopped. I doubt if they are swallowing the propaganda now that western news sources and independent Russian ones have been silenced, and protests suppressed.

Sat 5 Mar 22 12:44    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

>> I think the Russians are also pretty hacked off with their leadership and want the >> war stopped. I doubt if they are swallowing the propaganda now that western news sources >> and independent Russian ones have been silenced, and protests suppressed. >> I'm not so sure. According to an article the other day, a lady in Ukraine, in a city that was being shelled called her parents in Russia and they told her she is wrong, the are only targeting military installations. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487

Sat 5 Mar 22 13:24    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - smokie

Heard it said yesterday that many Russians are now using the Dark Web to find out what's going on. I think they would be mostly aware, even though their patriotism may not let them believe it.

Sat 5 Mar 22 14:07    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - CGNorwich

My understanding is that most Russians still get their news from the TV. Many younger Russians do have access to the internet and are aware of outside news and opinions but a very large proportion of the population, especially the older generation do not.

Sat 5 Mar 22 14:17    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - smokie

You're probably right but hopefully those who know the truth will be able to educate those who don't, or at least help them realise that their own media is effectively fake news. Just reading the BBC ticker and they are giving explicit instructions on how to reach their services through the Dark Web. tinyurl.com/ycj2kdf5

Sat 5 Mar 22 15:57    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - sooty123

>> You're probably right but hopefully those who know the truth will be able to educate >> those who don't, or at least help them realise that their own media is effectively >> fake news. Looking at the bbc link zippy put on, that doesnt look likely.

Sat 5 Mar 22 16:11    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Kevin

>You're probably right but hopefully those who know the truth.. In my admittedly very limited experience of Ruskies and I'm generalising here, the younger generations (under 40s) are nice folk. I worked with two Russian colleagues on projects in Norway and Italy and they were a pleasure to work and socialise with. The older ones I've witnessed while on holiday have been a totally different kettle of fish. On the whole, the men have been rude, ignorant and absolutely f'ing clueless on how to behave. I've seen them throwing ashtrays at barmen who were willing to serve them huge glasses of booze but refused to give them the whole bottle. Throwing coins at wait staff who forgot an item and had to go back to fetch it. Take a whole cake from a dessert trolley, take a couple of bites and leave the rest on their table. I'm pretty sure that they will have swallowed state propaganda hook, line and sinker and no amount of evidence, explanation or logic from the young 'uns will convince them otherwise.

Sat 5 Mar 22 12:29    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Manatee

Some speculation that RDS88 is to repatriate 'diplomats' and probably lots of documents. The return flight plan shows it leaving at 0935 EST tomorrow.

Sat 5 Mar 22 14:11    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - henry k

Very graphic video. ( warning) Russian helicopter shot down by missile. www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60630352

Sat 5 Mar 22 16:01    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Rudedog

Bit like the Afghan war were the Russian people only realised that the Soviet Army weren't doing that well when there soldier sons didn't return and the information that were being fed wasn't true, even under the soviets the leaders knew that they had to cut and run when the public cottoned on.... don't think this madman will do the same on his own.

Sat 5 Mar 22 17:41    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - legacylad

Has anyone put a bounty on his head yet ?

Sat 5 Mar 22 18:42    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - sooty123

>> Has anyone put a bounty on his head yet ? >> thecrowdreview.com/2022/03/04/russian-businessman-offers-us1-million-bounty-for-vladimir-putins-head/

Sat 5 Mar 22 18:40    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

>> Very graphic video. ( warning) >> Russian helicopter shot down by missile. >> >> www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60630352 >> That's awful, but the one that made me well up, was the mother crumpling in the hospital on being told her toddler was dead, with the cause of death being Russian shrapnel. If there is a hell, I hope Putin has express tickets there. (He even has the gall to deny the city bombardments to the German Chancellor.) Last edited by: zippy on Sat 5 Mar 22 at 18:42

Sat 5 Mar 22 19:03    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - legacylad

Funny old world. 45 years ago today my father died. As a teenager he sailed on the early PQ convoys to Murmansk & Archangel, losing many friends in the tight knit Merchant seaman community. Giving their young lives to help the Russian war effort. Wonder what he’d have made of current events ? Last edited by: legacylad on Sat 5 Mar 22 at 19:03

Sat 5 Mar 22 21:55    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Rudedog

Strange how many of my younger colleagues are surprised how far east the old USSR came and what current countries it engulfed, many weren't even around when the Wall came down.

Sun 6 Mar 22 23:17    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

There's an RAF Globemaster returning from the USA tonight, no doubt filled with a supply of toys. globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=43c1c6

Sun 6 Mar 22 23:30    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - smokie

It just landed at Brize Norton. I find it amazing that all this info is available to us at the click of a button. Not in relation to the war, just that there is so much data available on all sorts of stuff.

Mon 7 Mar 22 09:45    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Rudedog

Looking at the map of Europe while following FR24 I noticed this small country that I couldn't workout what it was called... anybody heard of Kaliningrad Oblast? Seems to be a Russian territory surrounded by NATO countries and the home to the Baltic fleet.... Last edited by: Rudedog on Mon 7 Mar 22 at 09:46

Mon 7 Mar 22 10:09    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

>> Looking at the map of Europe while following FR24 I noticed this small country that >> I couldn't workout what it was called... anybody heard of Kaliningrad Oblast? Seems to be >> a Russian territory surrounded by NATO countries and the home to the Baltic fleet.... It was mentioned in the previous volume I think. There's a certain similarity, and scope for mischief, as with Danzig and East Prussia in 1939.

Mon 7 Mar 22 10:39    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

Reading the room wrong: amp.theguardian.com/sport/2022/mar/07/shocking-behaviour-russian-gymnast-shows-z-symbol-on-podium-next-to-ukrainian-winner What a dick!

Mon 7 Mar 22 10:48    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - smokie

Agree but really he is simply being loyal to his country. As you said, misreading the room...

Mon 7 Mar 22 11:09    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

>> Agree but really he is simply being loyal to his country. As you said, misreading >> the room... That plus poking the Ukrainian Gold winner with a stick.

Mon 7 Mar 22 12:30    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

...a bit of taunting, with a pair of B52s circling in Eastern Romania at the moment. (From Brize Norton/Fairford/Kemble - take your pick!)

Mon 7 Mar 22 12:51    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

>> ...a bit of taunting, with a pair of B52s circling in Eastern Romania at the >> moment. >> >> (From Brize Norton/Fairford/Kemble - take your pick!) Pretty sure it's actually Fairford. Heard them going down the Daventry Military Corridor earlier on but too cloudy to see at that point. According to FR24 they were stepped 1,000 feet apart; FL100 and FL110. ATM they're visible on FR24 but not ADSB exchange.

Mon 7 Mar 22 13:18    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

>>B52s Can you post a link please?

Mon 7 Mar 22 13:26    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

Just go to Flightradar24 and check "Gorgon12" (or follow it via the most-tracked flights on the homepage).       1

Mon 7 Mar 22 13:35    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

...and....too late. Looks like they've just turned the transponders off.

Mon 7 Mar 22 14:22    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

>> ...and....too late. Looks like they've just turned the transponders off. Back on again now. Heading across mainland Greece, possibly towards Sicily? In FR24 I filtered for the ICAO type B52.

Mon 7 Mar 22 15:28    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Rudedog

Yep can see it going up the back of Itay..... ok so what are they doing? Obviously not bombing so is it just a show of strength? I wonder how much it costs to run one of those on a 'day trip' to the Med.

Mon 7 Mar 22 15:36    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

>>..... ok so what are they doing? >> ....willy waving...

Mon 7 Mar 22 16:04    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - zippy

>> >> ....willy waving... >> Well I suppose you don't get much bigger than a B52! :-)

Mon 7 Mar 22 16:10    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

>> Yep can see it going up the back of Itay..... ok so what are they >> doing? Obviously not bombing so is it just a show of strength? It may well be willy waving but not solely related to Ukraine; B52 detachments to Fairford are pretty regular.

Mon 7 Mar 22 16:14    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Terry

I would expect NATO to be very carefully monitoring all that goes on in and around Ukraine - both ground and air movements - without actually entering their airspace for fear of provoking a response and escalation.

Mon 7 Mar 22 16:24    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Lygonos

>>for fear of provoking a response and escalation. More likely they are allowing Putin to remain the uneqivocal 'bad guy' in the eyes of the rest of the world just now so that when the response comes it is universally supported.

Mon 7 Mar 22 16:24    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Lygonos

Double post - Russian interference no doubt. Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 7 Mar 22 at 16:25

Mon 7 Mar 22 13:13    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Zero

They best not come from Kemble, they would need to check they still had a full complement of wheels and engines (Kemble is the base of Air Salvage International)

Mon 7 Mar 22 13:25    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - tyrednemotional

...indeed (I've driven past it several times since Christmas), which is why I've said "take your pick". as the jumping off point for the current B52 "Gorgon12" flight is definitely shown as Kemble. The accompanying "No Callsign" B52 flight is shown as departing Brize. I think both of them are most likely from Fairford. I note Airforce 2, presumably still Blinken, has just landed in Eastern Romania, not far from Constanta. His itinerary certainly hasn't been planned with mileage in mind ;-).

Mon 7 Mar 22 18:21    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Lygonos

First Sweden, then Switzerland, now Her Maj is getting in on the politics: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60650285

Mon 7 Mar 22 19:52    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Kevin

>I note Airforce 2, presumably still Blinken, has just landed in Eastern Romania,.. Blinken and/or his staff are out for a Guinness tonight. Landed at Shannon about an hour ago.

Tue 8 Mar 22 07:35    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Kevin

Obviously doesn't like Guinness because they stayed on the ground just long enough to pick up some duty-free and Ryanair in-flight meals before tootling off to Washington. I wonder what needed a face-to-face back home because he has a dinner date with Macron on Thursday evening so he'll want to return in time for that.

Mon 7 Mar 22 22:25    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - sooty123

Fairford is the fwd deployment base in the uk for B52s. It's got everything from a massive bomb dump to a pretty big commissary through to the large taxiways needed. With (US) tankers here and in Germany they can get halfway across the world with all manner of weapons.

Wed 9 Mar 22 14:16    The Ukraine - Volume 2 - Bromptonaut

>> ...a bit of taunting, with a pair of B52s circling in Eastern Romania at the >> moment. >> >> (From Brize Norton/Fairford/Kemble - take your pick!) Another one been out today but turning orbits over St George's channel before runnin up the south coast and run in via the Daventry corridor.

Tue 8 Mar 22 09:48    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Manatee

There is a shared feeling I believe that NATO and other democratic developed countries have somehow missed a trick in not dealing with Russia properly before it came to this. Also that it is a pity that the combined superior forces that oppose Putin's evil war can't just get in and evict the Russian forces. However the situation does seem to show that superpower might, even when overwhelming, alone can not guarantee peace, and security for smaller nations, when the exercise of it could trigger the end of the world. Thousands of years ago, tribes hostile to each other realised that constant warring over territory would inevitably bring about death, disruption and food shortages for all concerned. Simplistically, beating down aggression with force sows the seeds of the next conflict. The West's more or less passive response to Putin now, although driven by force of circumstance, might actually be the key to the survival of the human species. Globalisation effectively brought down the Soviet Union and its satellites IMO. Russia can't possibly prosper in future if it is cut off economically from the rest of the world. It might still be necessary to carry a big stick to limit the options for the other side, but it could be the best route towards peace.

Tue 8 Mar 22 10:26    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - sherlock47

>>However the situation does seem to show that superpower might, even when overwhelming, alone can not guarantee peace, and security for smaller nations, when the exercise of it could trigger the end of the world.<< Discounting the 'end of the world scenario', history is littered with the failure of superpowers not gaining or retaining (long term?) results that they desired. Remember UK was a superpower once upon a time. “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” National (or even corporate) memory regularly does not seem to remember previous failures, probably the result of short termism combined with egocentric leadership.

Tue 8 Mar 22 16:53    Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60666251 No doubt this will push prices up even more.

Tue 8 Mar 22 16:57    Ukraine - Volume 3 - Lygonos

Dockers were refusing to unload the oil anyway so not a hard decision to make.

Tue 8 Mar 22 17:36    Ukraine - Volume 3 - CGNorwich

The US ban is immediate. The UK ban is to be effective by the end of 2022.

Tue 8 Mar 22 17:41    Ukraine - Volume 3 - Bromptonaut

>> The US ban is immediate. The UK ban is to be effective by the end >> of 2022. Seen more than one suggestion that as our need for non Russian oil increases the Pariah status of Venezuela and Iran might suddenly change.

Tue 8 Mar 22 18:06    Ukraine - Volume 3 - CGNorwich

The world runs on fossil fuels. We cannot live without them.

Tue 8 Mar 22 18:19    Ukraine - Volume 3 - zippy

>> The world runs on fossil fuels. We cannot live without them. >> Seems that most of the fossil fuel reserves are in countries with iffy politics and the countries that need the supplies the most have less iffy politics. Some deity is having a joke.

Tue 8 Mar 22 18:27    Ukraine - Volume 3 - Manatee

>> Seems that most of the fossil fuel reserves are in countries with iffy politics and >> the countries that need the supplies the most have less iffy politics. Some deity is >> having a joke. Related to the economics paradox the "resource curse", that countries with lots of natural resources tend to have more corruption, less democracy, and poorer economic performance than the most developed countries? This is obviously not an infallible rule.

Tue 8 Mar 22 18:13    Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

> >> Seen more than one suggestion that as our need for non Russian oil increases the >> Pariah status of Venezuela and Iran might suddenly change. >> I've seen rumours the Americans are keen that Venezuela are allowed to sell more oil. Apparently the saudis aren't interested in opening the taps up.

Tue 8 Mar 22 18:14    Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

>> Dockers were refusing to unload the oil anyway so not a hard decision to make. >> A fair bit of diesel comes from russia, some 18%. I don't think they were refusing to handle that? I wonder where we'll source the replacement diesel from.

Tue 8 Mar 22 20:28    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Terry

If some countries refuse to buy Russian oil, in theory the price will increase to reduce market demand. Most oil users will seek to reduce consumption (probably with mixed success). Those who are least able to afford the increased market price will suffer most. But this may be far from the whole story. I suspect Russia will continue to supply oil to those countries which either cannot afford the higher market prices, or are not aligned to western anti Russian policy. So whether the sanctions on Russian oil have any real impact or are simply disruptive to normal market conditions in the short/medium term is debatable.

Tue 8 Mar 22 21:08    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Kevin

>But this may be far from the whole story. I suspect Russia will continue >to supply oil to those countries which either cannot afford the higher >market prices, or are not aligned to western anti Russian policy. It's no good buying the crude if you don't have the shipping and refinery capability.

Tue 8 Mar 22 21:33    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Rudedog

How are the Far East/Aus reacting to the oil issue? Who supplies them? OK I'm dumb... please someone explain how petrol prices rise for products that have already been refined way before all of this and is sitting in storage or has been delivered and is in ground tanks at petrol stations, completely understand fresh supplies but prices going up 5ppl overnight for 'old' petrol in the ground? Feels like someone somewhere is making big money over this.

Tue 8 Mar 22 22:00    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - PeterS

Well the thing is, once they’ve sold what they got they have to buy more, and if they don’t sell what they’ve got for the market price they won’t have the money to do so. After all, you wouldn’t sell your house in a rising market for the price you paid for it would you? And you wouldn’t find a buyer for it in a falling market if you took the same approach

Wed 9 Mar 22 00:04    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - smokie

Great analogy!

Tue 8 Mar 22 20:08    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Kevin

Poland handing over all their MIG-29s "immediately and free of charge" to Ramstein. www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-ready-place-all-its-mig-29-jets-disposal-us-2022-03-08/

Tue 8 Mar 22 20:17    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Lygonos

Awww - I thought you meant these guys were going to be taking part... www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX0GXhDLaC4

Wed 9 Mar 22 08:05    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Rudedog

Just listening to a dire interview with the Transport Minister Grant Shapps..... how the hell did he get into parliament!!!! Talking on the UK stopping Russian oil and all he could repeat was it would take the EU eight years... Apparently UK drivers are happy to take the increase in fuel prices as his Govt has reduced taxes to help!! What is this guy on... the biggest brown nose ever!

Wed 9 Mar 22 08:13    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Bromptonaut

>> Poland handing over all their MIG-29s "immediately and free of charge" to Ramstein. >> >> www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-ready-place-all-its-mig-29-jets-disposal-us-2022-03-08/ The Americans now say they were caught unawares and it won't happen; too risky: www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/poland-mig-29-jets-us-ukraine

Wed 9 Mar 22 09:10    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - tyrednemotional

...I was going to post last night after it was floated that they would need c****** to go ahead with it, as it would almost inevitably invoke a "hissy fit".

Wed 9 Mar 22 09:48    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Duncan

What's the 7 letter word beginning with 'c'?

Wed 9 Mar 22 09:56    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Bromptonaut

>> What's the 7 letter word beginning with 'c'? The Spanish for balls - C O Jones.

Wed 9 Mar 22 10:02    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Lygonos

Putin's "hissy fits" are an act. He's a cold, calculating guy. I suspect he thought the West would largely play a game of appeasement. I suspect he is right. If it came to actual battlefield fisticuffs I suspect the West's anti-armour firepower would demolish his tank columns in short order - and Putin knows this. Nukes are off the table for the usual Phyrrhic victory reasons. Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 9 Mar 22 at 10:05

Wed 9 Mar 22 09:59    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Zero

Ka Ho Ness

Wed 9 Mar 22 14:33    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Manatee

Something else UK could do to get up Putin's nose would be to rejoin the EU. Unfortunately the same extreme right Trump-alike idiots who took the Russian money, gave us the ERG, and pushed Brexit on what was tacitly an anti-migration platform won't wear it. At least one of those idiots, Steve Baker, has also helped set up the Net Zero Scrutiny Group to oppose climate measures. Has it not occurred to him that the more we screw up the climate, the more mass migration there will be?

Wed 9 Mar 22 14:40    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - PeterS

Never mind us rejoining - that’s not a quick fix for anything and would cause yet more Builth in the U.K. The EU could help itself much more by actually acting as one when it comes to energy / gas and Russia. If all the EU members combined the energy they do have then they could stop buying Russian gas immediately. Rather than Italy and Germany taking a 30% hit each member state might only have 5% less power than needed… even out demand by rolling blackouts / factory running times / reduced heating / night time working or whatever and each take a little pain. However, the French are never going to let the Germans have any of their power, so the status quo will continue and the talk of unity will remain as rhetoric, as is the EU way so often ;)

Wed 9 Mar 22 15:10   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

They could have signed long term gas deals with countries in the ME to try and offset some of their dependance on Russian gas. Probably lead by Germany and their interest in all things Russian, they refused. And here we are.

Wed 9 Mar 22 15:11   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

However, the French are never going to let the Germans have any of their >> power, You mean electricity ? Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 9 Mar 22 at 15:11

Wed 9 Mar 22 15:31   Ukraine - Volume 3 - PeterS

Haha yes, power as in electricity :)

Wed 9 Mar 22 16:03   Ukraine - Volume 3 - henry k

Russia soon unable to pay its debts, warns agency www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60672085

Wed 9 Mar 22 16:05   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Lygonos

They already do - France exports to Germany (up to 5-6GW) when the German renewables are low, and Germany sells to France when the wind is blowing.

Wed 9 Mar 22 16:23   Ukraine - Volume 3 - PeterS

>> They already do - France exports to Germany (up to 5-6GW) when the German renewables >> are low, and Germany sells to France when the wind is blowing. >> Yes, I know…but only when it suits them. If they wanted to stop buying Russian gas straight away the electricity that is currently generated could be shared, and the pain of the shortfall also shared, across the EU to dilute the impact on Germany and Italy who are more reliant on Russian gas than the other EU countries :)

Wed 9 Mar 22 16:16   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

>> Haha yes, power as in electricity :) >> I think they have loads of interconnectors between france and Germany.

Thu 10 Mar 22 09:06    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Rudedog

I know this is a bit late.... I still have this feeling and have heard that even if we (the UK) got close to being or were energy independent using wind, solar, nuclear and our own oil/gas then the prices we are paying would not go down.... would that be right? Does Norway have cheap electricity from their hydro production?

Thu 10 Mar 22 09:23    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Manatee

There are a few moving parts. From minute to minute almost, the wholesale price is set across all sources, wind, solar, gas,oil, nuclear. So if there is a shortage the the price for all rise together. A similar sort of thing happens directly and indirectly geographically to the extent that energy can be .moved around. Wind must also be a bit like nuclear. The energy is free or nearly free, once you have built the generating capacity which is why the nuclear contribution never varies. Regulation also messes this up quite a lot, with we vice obligations and price caps. The main factor however is that on the wholesale side the price is set by supply and demand, not directly by cost of production.

Thu 10 Mar 22 09:51    The Ukraine - Volume 3 - Bromptonaut

>> Does Norway have cheap electricity from their hydro production? Norway certainly has abundant hydro electricity.

Thu 10 Mar 22 10:12   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Boxsterboy

Roman Abramovich (and others) now sanctioned and assets seized, including in Abramovich's case Chelsea, even if it is held in an offshore company. Does that mean that if the club is sold, us taxpayers get the dosh instead of it being recycled back to Putin? If so, that's a result!

Thu 10 Mar 22 11:33   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Robin O'Reliant

Abramovich can't sell the club or do anything with it. The club cannot sell any season tickets though existing ones will be honoured. The clubs merchandise shop has been closed. Chelsea's days of milk and honey look to be over.

Thu 10 Mar 22 11:38   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Zero

The club can not sell ANY tickets, any new season tickets or day tickets, only Existing season ticket holders are allowed in. The club merchandise shop - on site and on line is shut, Players contracts can not be extended, players can not be sold or bought. They can play premier league fixtures, but - currently - they cant buy travel or accommodation for the players abroad, so European fixtures are in doubt.

Thu 10 Mar 22 12:21   Ukraine - Volume 3 - CGNorwich

Chelsea will ne so demoralised tonight that Norwich will have a mighty victory leading to a miraculous recovery in their fortunes. Possibly.

Thu 10 Mar 22 16:06   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Zero

>> Chelsea will ne so demoralised tonight that Norwich will have a mighty victory leading to >> a miraculous recovery in their fortunes. only in the Russian Press

Thu 10 Mar 22 21:35   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Robin O'Reliant

>> Chelsea will ne so demoralised tonight that Norwich will have a mighty victory leading to >> a miraculous recovery in their fortunes. >> >> Possibly. >> Or possibly not ;-)

Thu 10 Mar 22 14:13   Ukraine - Volume 3 - zippy

Is the Russian's Foreign Minister delusional - he is claiming that Russia has not attacked Ukraine? www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10597929/Sergei-Lavrov-says-Russia-DIDNT-attack-Ukraine-dismisses-pathetic-outcry-hospital.html

Thu 10 Mar 22 15:05   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Bromptonaut

>> Is the Russian's Foreign Minister delusional - he is claiming that Russia has not attacked >> Ukraine? >> >> www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10597929/Sergei-Lavrov-says-Russia-DIDNT-attack-Ukraine-dismisses-pathetic-outcry-hospital.html It's not an invasion it's a Special Military Operation....

Thu 10 Mar 22 16:41   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Kevin

>It's not an invasion it's a Special Military Operation.... I thought it was a piece-keeping mission.

Thu 10 Mar 22 19:08   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Robin O'Reliant

It's a Russian Young Christians trip to Kyiv Cathedral.

Thu 10 Mar 22 19:12   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Zero

>> It's not an invasion it's a Special Military Operation.... The Russians claim the west has declared global financial war on them. Sorry guys its just a special fiscal operation. Last edited by: Zero on Thu 10 Mar 22 at 19:13

Thu 10 Mar 22 20:15   Ukraine - Volume 3 - PeterS

I like that… SFO. So F*** O** ;)

Fri 11 Mar 22 16:29   Are we a target for drones? - henry k

People in Croatia's capital Zagreb were rudely awakened to the Ukraine conflict when a military drone crashed in the city late last night. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60709952 No warnings whatsoever. Maybe fat fingers inputting to the Sat Nav ?

Fri 11 Mar 22 16:43   Are we a target for drones? - Bromptonaut

Zagreb's a helluva long way from Ukraine. The Russkis are however reportedly helping the Serbs make mischief in parts of former Yugoslavia.

Fri 11 Mar 22 08:51   Afghanistan - bathtub tom

What's happening to the poor sods there? Ukraine's knocked it off our awareness.

Fri 11 Mar 22 09:13   Afghanistan - Zero

>> What's happening to the poor sods there? Ukraine's knocked it off our awareness. Who cares? Its of no significance to us, its always been a wasps nest, just forget about it and avoid it.

Fri 11 Mar 22 09:22   Afghanistan - Fullchat

According to Victoria Nuland the Ukranians have 'Bio' labs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvRpntmUIxs

Fri 11 Mar 22 10:30   Afghanistan - neiltoo

So do we. So does any nation who is afraid of loonies with chemical and biological weapons.

Fri 11 Mar 22 10:40   Afghanistan - Zero

The bio labs are for research into combating things like covid and ebola. Lets talk about the Russian nerve agents instead, like the Winchester variety.

Fri 11 Mar 22 16:29   Afghanistan - helicopter

Not heard of Russian nerve agents in Winchester....do you mean Salisbury?

Fri 11 Mar 22 16:40   Afghanistan - Zero

>> Not heard of Russian nerve agents in Winchester....do you mean Salisbury? Got me cathedrals mixed up

Fri 11 Mar 22 17:23   Afghanistan - tyrednemotional

>> >> Got me cathedrals mixed up >> ...you weren't flying that drone that hit Zagreb, were you...?

Fri 11 Mar 22 17:55   Afghanistan - Zero

>> >> >> >> Got me cathedrals mixed up >> >> >> >> ...you weren't flying that drone that hit Zagreb, were you...? Well I had hacked into something, thought it was MS Flight Sim.

Fri 11 Mar 22 16:45   Afghanistan - Duncan

>> Not heard of Russian nerve agents in Winchester....do you mean Salisbury? Leave him alone. It's his age.

Sat 12 Mar 22 15:47   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60711211 Looks like Russia's losses are mounting. Recruiting picks up in Russia and in Syria.

Sat 12 Mar 22 16:06   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Robin O'Reliant

I'm beginning to think that NATO should have called Putin's bluff on his Nuke threat and at least gone in with air support. Russia will not stop with Ukraine and sooner rather than later it will come to a toe to toe confrontation with them.

Sat 12 Mar 22 16:37   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Terry

What level of nuclear response risk is acceptable through getting directly involved in the conflict - personally my risk appetite is close to zero. So no air support. We don't know what the outcome will be in Ukraine - three main possibilities: - Putin is removed from office and Russia withdraw (best outcome) - Russia "wins" control of Ukraine in the next few weeks/months (quite likely) - long term stalemate - as Afghanistan in 1980s (equally likely) It is doubtful (even with a swift victory) Putin will carry on into NATO territory - his army will be severely weakened and he will have enough problems maintaining security in Ukraine. This is all a wake up call for NATO and Europe who should now rapidly increase defence spending and capability to reduce the probability of Russian aggression in the future. The whole unpleasant saga is a product of complacency and defence under-spending over the last three decades, and particularly since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Sat 12 Mar 22 16:53   Ukraine - Volume 3 - James Loveless

"... he will have enough problems maintaining security in Ukraine." Remember, too, that Ukraine is vast, even if the pro-Russia eastern areas are discounted. I find contemplating the likely endgame scenarios pretty disturbing. My bet is on a stalemate. However, we know little about the possibility that Putin will be "retired", as has been suggested in a few newspapers recently. Certainly some members of the Duma apparently reckon Putin conned them into supporting what was dressed up as a policing operation. That, if it happened, might provide a fairly quick end to this awful mess.

Sat 12 Mar 22 16:57   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Lygonos

Putin isn't interested in the NATO states - he knows our anti-armour capability would turn his tank columns into molten slag. He wants all of non-NATO Europe as part of his new empire. Ukraine is the second largest European nation by area (Russia being first) and home to 40m. Belarus almost 10m. Chuck in a few million from Georgia who will be next on the list. Add in 20m in Syria and a few other nations and he has a power/economic block again to rival the 350m US, 400m EU blocs. NATO tooling up and forming a new Iron Curtain is what he wants. And Uncle Joe saying NATO absolutely will not get involved is a green light for Putin to continue. We are appeasing him. Putin is not crazy: he's a cold calculating tactician who sees this as a game of chess. He will continue to circumvallate Ukrainian cities and siege them all into submission. And we will let him do it while waving our ineffectual willies. The end game? Putin dies or is replaced in Ukraine drags on similar to Khrushchev's retiral a year after the Cuban Missile Crisis. Last edited by: Lygonos on Sat 12 Mar 22 at 17:00

Sat 12 Mar 22 18:17   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

has a power/economic block again to rival the 350m US, 400m EU blocs. In his mind possibly so. I don't think that the case in reality . NATO tooling up and forming a new Iron Curtain is what he wants. >> >> And Uncle Joe saying NATO absolutely will not get involved is a green light for >> Putin to continue. >> >> We are appeasing him. >> > What should we be doing?

Sat 12 Mar 22 18:59   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Terry

We are doing all we sensibly can. NATO believe Putin a loose cannon and his response to any action is a risk. Arguably a triumph of realism and common sense over decency. Putin knows that NATO will tool up having been indolent in matters over the last three decades. He knows that we will not risk getting directly involved and have told him so. Whether anti-tank weapons are ok, but Polish aircraft are a step too far is a judgement call. The Poles could have invited Ukraine to fly from Polish airfields but sought to get the US involved. Had NATO done a half decent job the risks would have been identified and alternative plans implemented - eg: defence funded properly, Ukraine to have special EU status, invite NATO for "exercises", join NATO etc etc. The big risk is that in 3 or 6 months the sanctions will slowly lift even without any change in Russian behaviours and actions. Why - the pain of increased energy and raw material prices will make (particularly) those less able to bear the cost willing to compromise "principles" for money. India, Pakistan will want cheap fuel, Germany will need gas supplies next winter etc etc.

Sat 12 Mar 22 19:12   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

I think we are broadly doing what we can, where we can. However I'd disagree with Had NATO done a half decent job the risks would have been identified and alternative plans implemented - eg: defence funded properly, Ukraine to have special EU status, invite NATO for "exercises", join NATO etc etc. NATO itself has no funding beyond what the countries give it. Ukraine had been invited on several exercises over the past few years as well as having NATO training teams in country. As for funding few countries were interested in such things, a few probably 6 or so did meet the target, but the majority didn't. Which party in the uk were pushing the line Putin needed containing which meant a big increase in defence spending?

Sat 12 Mar 22 19:23   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Manatee

Sanctions took a long time to effect any change in SA. NATO has made a clear statement it will not fight and that is what Putin has banked. There's no good reason to think appeasement will work, the difficulty is knowing how far to go and the risk involved. No level of risk of nuclear conflict is considered acceptable. Whether Putin is nuts or not, it is to his advantage to appear so to us (he more or less controls what his own people think his mental state is - if he can convince them he is defending them from Western aggression, that makes him rational). If you throw an aggressive dog a lump of steak, it won't stop bothering you, it will be back for more with increased expectations.

Sat 12 Mar 22 20:31   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Robin O'Reliant

>> >> >> If you throw an aggressive dog a lump of steak, it won't stop bothering you, >> it will be back for more with increased expectations. >> I agree with that. Putin (And just as importantly those around him) knows full well that a nuclear war will have only losers. He is playing on the fear of war by the west in threatening it. If he gets away with this it will only be a matter of time before his eye is on somewhere else with valuable lessons learned from the mess of this invasion. At some point or other a line will have to be drawn in the sand where it is made plain he will not be allowed to cross it.

Sat 12 Mar 22 21:26   Ukraine - Volume 3 - CGNorwich

The line in the sand is where it has been since 1949 i.e an attack on NATO member country.

Sat 12 Mar 22 21:32   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Zero

>> The line in the sand is where it has been since 1949 i.e an attack >> on NATO member country. >> Indeed, which is why we can't put boots on the ground or planes in the air in Ukraine, its not a NATO member, but we can posture threateningly on the border

Sat 12 Mar 22 21:46   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Zero

>> >> >> >> >> >> If you throw an aggressive dog a lump of steak, it won't stop bothering >> you, >> >> it will be back for more with increased expectations. But not aggressively so, you become a supplier. Dogs rarely bite the hand that feeds Which proves Putin is bonkers. He has revitalised NATO, given birth to an EU army, and created and embraced an internal cancerous insurgency Bright stuff

Sat 12 Mar 22 21:49   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Lygonos

>>Which proves Putin is bonkers. He has revitalised NATO, given birth to an EU army, and created and embraced an internal cancerous insurgency Not at all - he has recreated a Russia-centric empire of which he is boss, his opponents waste money building forces they'll never use, and Russia ceases to be drawn inexorably into Europe.

Sun 13 Mar 22 06:29   Ukraine - Volume 3 - sooty123

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60697763 Looks like many are increasingly leaving russia. I'm sure many that leave will be in their 20s and 30s, with russias population already falling this will do nothing to help that nor the economy. Looks like putin is sat on a wobble chair but still determined to saw through it's legs.

Sun 13 Mar 22 12:03   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Manatee

>> But not aggressively so, you become a supplier. Dogs rarely bite the hand that feeds >> Pack of wolves then? I'm not sure you can use this analogy to solve the problem, but he'll definitely be back and he won't be rolling on his back waiting for his tummy tickling. Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 13 Mar 22 at 21:26

Sun 13 Mar 22 12:54   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Zero

Well, consider this, how was the domestic dog created from wolves.

Sun 13 Mar 22 13:20   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Lygonos

By humans becoming the alpha. Anyhoos, you can rest assured 'disarming Ukraine' means sticking an asston of missiles and anti-aircraft units on it, followed by a large standing garrison. The only choice is do we let Putin do it, or do we do it?

Sun 13 Mar 22 15:39   Ukraine - Volume 3 - Manatee

>> Well, consider this, how was the domestic dog created from wolves. I don't think Putin can be domesticated by feeding;)