explosive cyclogenesis
The phrase came tumbling out of the BBC weather forecasters mouth just now. Not one I had come across, so looked it up.
A low pressure system whose central pressure falls 24 millibars in 24 hours
sometimes more commonly known as a weather bomb
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Our local weather sage says if it goes the wrong way we could have 80mph winds in the Chilterns on Friday.
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> Our local weather sage says if it goes the wrong way we could have 80mph
> winds in the Chilterns on Friday.
This was previously only accessible internally but is now public. It may not be available permanently.
www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts
Click on 'Meteograms', enter what location you want on the LHS side and it will give you a ten day forecast. You can download pdf or jpg on the RHS.
They are basically a representation of the combined outputs from running the model with slightly different conditions to try and take into account the uncertainty of the accuracy of initial conditions and the model itself.
The length of the verticle bars shows the range of probable outcomes. The shorter the bar the more confident you can be of that particular outcome.
The bars will obviously tend to get longer the further ahead you look because a slight measurement inaccuracy may have little impact on day 1 but it's effect at day 10 could be huge.
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todays technical term. - Manatee
