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Ongoing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 1 Jan 22 at 03:37
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WHO update on Omicron 28th November
"It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible"
"It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease"
"Preliminary evidence suggests there may be an increased risk of reinfection with Omicron"
Effectiveness of vaccines, current tests and current treatments - no change/information at this time.
www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron
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"READ ALL ABOUT IT!"
"WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION SAYS THAT OMICRON MAY REINFECT COVID SURVIVORS"
"READ ALL ABOUT IT!"
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>> "READ ALL ABOUT IT!"
>>
>> "WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION SAYS THAT OMICRON MAY REINFECT COVID SURVIVORS"
>>
>> "READ ALL ABOUT IT!"
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10253611/Could-Omicron-GOOD-news-Variant-speed-end-pandemic-causes-mild-illness.html
Pfffftttttt raspberry, yah suck boo to you
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>> "READ ALL ABOUT IT!"
>>
>> "WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION SAYS THAT OMICRON MAY REINFECT COVID SURVIVORS"
>>
>> "READ ALL ABOUT IT!"
>>
I entirely agree,.
It makes an absolute mockery of all the media driven hysteria of two days ago.
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I'm surprised that the JVCI have ok'd giving a 3rd vaccination to over 18s and reduced the gap down to 3 months.
That's not very long after the second, I thought the 2nd would still have given good enough protection still especially in the under 40s.
There was a couple of SA Drs on the news last that said the patients that they had seen so far with Omicron were quite mild.
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Yes but apparently it was mostly seen in young folk who tend to get it more mildly anyway, so I read.
One does wonder why so many governments have taken fairly dramatic and undesirable (for them) measures quite so quickly if it really is considered not too serious.
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 29 Nov 21 at 17:38
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>> One does wonder why so many governments have taken fairly dramatic and undesirable (for them)
>> measures quite so quickly if it really is considered not too serious.
Because they don't know. Its the biggest mutation so far and with no knowledge they took the biggest precaution
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>> Yes but apparently it was mostly seen in young folk who tend to get it
>> more mildly anyway, so I read.
And it's mostly the young who haven't been vaccinated, ergo current vaccinations work.
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We need to wait a couple of weeks before coming to conclusions on the mutation. We should then have some understanding of whether vaccines provide reasonable protection, transmissability, it causes minor or serious disease and/or death.
Right now it is ill (or at best partially) informed speculation - pointless.
Most governments (including ours) realise that by slowing down the spread of the virus, they win extra time to come up with solutions and/or modified vaccines if required. The risks of do nothing are much greater than do something, even if doing something is later found to be unnecessary.
Using it as an opportunity to increase vaccination and booster rates is just sound opportunism.
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If only 'they' had taken climate change, which will kill everybody, as seriously as Covid, which kills <1%.
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>> If only 'they' had taken climate change, which will kill everybody,
But it wont. Not everybody.
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>>But it wont. Not everybody
We'll manage that without climatic assistance I suspect.
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So usually when "we wait" a couple of weeks "we" get blamed for not taking action right away.
IMO that is the wrong approach, we are still in a pandemic and should be taking appropriate precautions when risks arise until we aren't.
Despite there not yet being reports, or documents, or hard and fast proof, people who understand this stuff recognise that this variant may well cause problems. They can do that because they have a lot of experience with this and understand how the virus, vaccines etc work.
In the end it may not cause problems. But at least we will have taken the right steps if it had. Better than opening the floodgates while we contemplate our navels.
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Insofar as taking prudent steps and erring on the side of caution, I entirely agree.
However, that manifesting as tabloid panic and declarations of impending doom is not only ridiculous it causes people to burn out. People get tired of being told the world is about to end and stop listening.
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>> However, that manifesting as tabloid panic and declarations of impending doom is not only ridiculous
>> it causes people to burn out. People get tired of being told the world is
>> about to end and stop listening.
I’ll drink to that.
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>> it causes people to burn out. People get tired of being told the world is
>> about to end and stop listening.
we have met and passed that little milestone. Anything other than a full lock down enforced by martial law is probably not doable.
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This all becomes a bit predictable.
What ever the government do some will insist it is "too little too late" and others "personal freedom ..... police state"
The media predictably turn a risk into a crisis "xmas is off" "we all all going to die"
The big risk is crying wolf. There is no capacity or willingness to enforce legislation - it relies upon public support.
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It isn't a case of crying wolf if the facts have changed. The problem isn't a reversal of policy, it's that there are lots of contrary people behaving stupidly as well as the outright stupid ones. If there weren't, the facts and authoritative advice would be enough.
I was shocked to hear yesterday that a friend I regard as super-practical and of above average intelligence refuses to be vaccinated because "nobody can tell me what to do" and "I have a strong immune system".
She is of an age to have grown up in a period when mass vaccination saved millions of lives. She has a husband and grown up children who are all vaccinated. Whether it has occurred to her that her choice might deprive them of a wife and mother I don't know. It's baffling.
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I don't think it's particularly baffling, people make bad choices all the time. As for depriving their family of a loved one, same as eating or drinking too much.
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>> people make bad choices all the time. As for
>> depriving their family of a loved one, same as eating or drinking too much.
Thought provoking, fair comment.
But unlike eating what you like and socialising with drink, and the temptation that goes with it, I don't see the upside to rejecting a vaccination. Similarly extreme sports - at least there's a gain, a point.
Chance of serious harm/death from Covid - scale of 1 in 100-1000 for most people. From Vaccine - scale of 1 in 100,000-1000,000.
Too rational I suppose. It's an emotional thing. That, and most people probably still don't know well anyone who has died of/with Covid, and reason that they will probably be OK anyway. Which is true.
My own cousin (female, 64) is one too. She distrusts and rejects modern medicine, at least when she's well.
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>>because "nobody can tell me what to do" and "I have a strong immune system".
There are the reasons someone does, or does not, do something and there is the way that it is explained, justified or rationalised to someone else.
The ones you sorted are not reasons, they are rationalisations or justifications.
It could be as simple as fear, which nobody likes to admit.
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But unlike eating what you like and socialising with drink, and the temptation that goes
>> with it, I don't see the upside to rejecting a vaccination. Similarly extreme sports -
>> at least there's a gain, a point.
I think there are similarities with both, in different proportions though, of 'I'll do what i well like' a sense of freedom, a sense of rebellion that people find (on some level) satisfying. That's their upside.
>> Chance of serious harm/death from Covid - scale of 1 in 100-1000 for most people.
>> From Vaccine - scale of 1 in 100,000-1000,000.
>>
>> Too rational I suppose. It's an emotional thing. That, and most people probably still don't
>> know well anyone who has died of/with Covid, and reason that they will probably be
>> OK anyway. Which is true.
Yes, speaking in a manner of 1 in xxx is alien and meaningless to most people. Trying to talk like that, to influence people, you may as well speak Mongolian to them.
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There was an item on Women's Hour on R4 yesterday (I was in the car and there was nothing else on) concerning a vegan who had refused the vaccine because it had been tested on animals. He caught Covid and was so bad he was begging for the vaccine though it was by then too late, and died as a result.
We also have a fitness freak and gun nut who comes in the shop (We keep expecting to see him on the front pages after a supermarket massacre) and won't have a vaccine because it is a mind control drug and all the world's governments are engaged in a bid to enslave the population. Yet he gave the owner a sample of some body building crap of unknown origin he bought from an ebay seller. It went in the bin unopened.
You have to despair.
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Tue 30 Nov 21 at 15:06
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>>You have to despair.
Or try to have faith in Darwin and Karma.
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>> Yet he gave the owner a sample of some body building crap of unknown origin he bought from an ebay seller.
>>
>> It went in the bin unopened.
...couldn't get the top off the container.....?
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59473067
Seems a bit of a strange one, they 'escaped' by walking out of the front door and talking to the local health department.
The woman has had multiple negative tests vs one positive test but still is held in an isolated ward.
I bet there's more to it.
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Anyway, it seems that much of the earlier so-called hysteria may have been justified after all.
Whatever...
With the first Omicron death being reported, it would have been good to get a bit more detail - how old, comorbidities, vax/booster status, source of infection etc etc. I suppose it will come out before too long.
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The Dept for Health and Social Care has been given a 'going over' by a House of Lords Committee regarding the justification/economics of requiring all NHS staff to be vaccinated:
committees.parliament.uk/publications/7989/documents/82445/default/
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>> The Dept for Health and Social Care has been given a 'going over' by a
>> House of Lords Committee regarding the justification/economics of requiring all NHS staff to be vaccinated:
>>
>>
>> committees.parliament.uk/publications/7989/documents/82445/default/
Missed the edit - the meat in under the heading of 'our many concerns include' on the 3rd page.
Issue is that the govt have not justified the gains against the likely loss of unvaccinated staff and the impact of that on services. Particular concern in London area where there are heavy concentrations of refusers.
May support earlier suggestions that the move owes more to political than practical impact.
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>>Issue is that the govt have not justified the gains against the likely loss of unvaccinated staff and the impact of that on services
Is that really the point?
Firstly I'd be very happy to see the almost certainly stupid vax-refusers leave.
Secondly how can we expect others to be vaccinated if the health service isn't?
Thirdly, I entirely support their right to quit and the State's right not to pay them any welfare for the first n weeks.
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I don't fancy being treated by anyone who thinks a its a fab idea not to be vaccinated in a hospital full of infection. I doubt their competency and sanity.
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>> Is that really the point?
I'd say it is; the first test of government action should be is it cost effective?
While you may feel strongly about 'stupid anti vaxers' I don't think that's the issue. There are some serious questions. See also my point below about real anxieties.
What is the actual risk/cost to those seen by an un-vaccinated doctor, nurse or clerk compared with the cost of dismissing and replacing all those people?
I think it's established science that while vaccination MAY reduce the risk of transmission it's far from eliminated. Colleague who is double and booster vaccinated but employed specifically to see folks in person (I'm phone and webchat) could still pass it to a client she saw face to face.
The explanatory memorandum the committee, who are in the Lords and approach this technically and not as party hacks, are so critical of is totally deficient on the issue.
I saw a Nurse Practitioner a fortnight ago about sinusitis; if she could stop me felling like I'd been punched in the face by Mike Tyson I couldn't give a fudge whether she was vaccinated. It's not the job of NHS staff to lead from the front on this.
In the last week I've had to warn a refuser, somebody with real anxieties not a conspiracy nut, being dismissed from a Care Home that being 'sanctioned' when she claimed benefits was a probability.
If government/NHS want to financially incentivise vaccination then maybe altering terms so that unvaccinated staff with Covid got only SSP rather than contractual sick pay ie their full whack if off with Covid might work.
Suppose they could also refuse death in service benefits but that feels too like visiting sins of Father on Sons.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 30 Nov 21 at 19:01
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>>I'd say it is; the first test of government action should be is it cost effective?
e.g.
is it cost effective for the police to attempt to stop mugging?
is it cost effective to treat a person with cancer?
is it cost effective to improve the quality of are in a nursing home?
Utter nonsense.
For a start, the entire welfare state would instantly fall apart along with just about everything the Labour party reckons it stands for.
>>If government/NHS want to financially incentivise vaccination then maybe altering terms so that unvaccinated staff with Covid got only SSP rather than contractual sick pay ie their full whack if off with Covid might work.
Surely that is the entire point of removing their salary?
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 30 Nov 21 at 19:03
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>> >>I'd say it is; the first test of government action should be is it cost
>> effective?
>>
>> e.g.
>>
>> is it cost effective for the police to attempt to stop mugging?
>> is it cost effective to treat a person with cancer?
>> is it cost effective to improve the quality of are in a nursing home?
I said first test. If it doesn't prove cost effective are their other recognisable gains?
To some extent that goes for the examples above. Short of a Copper on every street you'll not eliminate the crime of mugging. There will be a limit to how much investigatory effort goes into muggings where there's no description and no CCTV.
Cancer treatments that add little quality time for the patient at massive cost don't pass muster either.
If there's a cost of a lot of millions sacking and replacing 100,000 refuseniks there need to be real demonstrable gains. Setting an example to others or dealing with the 'stupid' doesn't cut the mustard on that score.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 30 Nov 21 at 19:30
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>>I said first test.
I know. And all the above would fail the first test. So presumably would not reach any second test.
Ridiculous.
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>> >>I said first test.
>>
>> I know. And all the above would fail the first test. So presumably would not
>> reach any second test.
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>> Ridiculous.
If it fails the first test then are there other good and convincing reasons?
There are for mugging and Cancer but still some limits apply.
There's a suspicion that the motive here is that Sajid Javid is a future leadership contender showing us how big his balls are.
He's got previous over the Begum girl's citizenship.
There were Labour ministers in the Blair/Brown years on the same game; Blunkett springs to mind.
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There's a suspicion that the motive here is that Sajid Javid is a future leadership
>> contender showing us how big his balls are.
>>
>
I don't think it's him, unless he's stupid.
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Replacing staff!!! yeah right!
Out latest recruitment drive has seen the few new staff all come from India/Sri Lanka.
The big hit will be when (not if) this is applied to out agency staff which currently runs at close to 50% of all theatre staff... hope they all have the jab else we're going to be in big big trouble!
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>>Replacing staff!!! yeah right!
So then they'll need to pay more, or make it otherwise more attractive, or bring back freedom of movement etc. etc. etc.
Which is exactly how it should be.
Not lowering standards or to be afraid of requiring behaviours
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>> Replacing staff!!! yeah right!
>>
>> Out latest recruitment drive has seen the few new staff all come from India/Sri Lanka.
>>
>> The big hit will be when (not if) this is applied to out agency staff
>> which currently runs at close to 50% of all theatre staff... hope they all have
>> the jab else we're going to be in big big trouble!
Agency staff has been the mainstay of the NHS for some years. My wife went agency on and off for a few years prior to retirement, all her current nursing friends have gone agency as did most of her nurse training cohort. Some of them over 20 years ago. All of them are vaccinated.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 30 Nov 21 at 19:25
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The big hit will be when (not if) this is applied to out agency staff
>> which currently runs at close to 50% of all theatre staff... hope they all have
>> the jab else we're going to be in big big trouble!
>>
>>
Any particular reason they aren't wanting the jab, anything common that you have heard?
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Like I've said before I'd be surpsrised if the gov actually take on the NHS over non vaccinated staff. They've announced xyz, I still think they'll find some way to swerve or back down or something, they won't want the papers getting hold of a nurse that's now eating at a foodbank etc.
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>> Like I've said before I'd be surpsrised if the gov actually take on the NHS
>> over non vaccinated staff. They've announced xyz, I still think they'll find some way to
>> swerve or back down or something, they won't want the papers getting hold of a
>> nurse that's now eating at a foodbank etc.
That.
Exactly.
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That.
>>
>> Exactly.
>>
I don't think it's a good reason to flail about, either give them a free pass or enforce it. But I get the impression that's the reason they are so half hearted about this.
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>> It's not the job of NHS staff to lead from the front on this.
Considering they deal with a sick people and there is a risk of making the patient even sicker of the unvaccinated care worker passes it on, then absolutely they should lead from the front.
But to be honest, if a small fraction doesn’t get vaccinated then I guess the overall risks are reduced, re herd immunity etc.
I know of a couple of senior consultants who were worried about the vaccine, how it was rushed out etc. and whether or not it would actually work.
What these senior people didn’t do was run a personal anti vax campaigns in the way some nurses and other care staff have been doing and given their position, it’s just not acceptable.
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We are being told in my trust that the official Govt guidance still hasn't been sent out, which means although we have the date where our staff should have had at least had their first dose to be able to comply we don't know what will happen with staff unable or unwilling to have the jab, the jab will be for ALL NHS regardless of their role and not just frontline staff so many backroom staff are going to have to make a big decision.
Will be interesting to see how HR deal with it as it takes AGES to ever dismiss someone over health issues especially when you include all of the appeals.
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If having unvaccinated hospital staff is a real threat to both colleagues and patients (who are there because they are already ill) it seems entirely reasonable to expect them to be vaccinated.
Unless there is a very good reason otherwise, failure to get jabbed should render them unfit for work through their own actions. No sick pay or redundancy and minimal state support if then unemployed.
That it is a difficult time to lose staff following Brexit and Covid may change the timing but should not change the principle.
That a financial impact assessment fails to justify the decision is irrelevant - much public spending is a social good or moral imperative not justified by savings and financial benefits.
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>> If having unvaccinated hospital staff is a real threat to both colleagues and patients (who
>> are there because they are already ill) it seems entirely reasonable to expect them to
>> be vaccinated.
If it's properly quantified how big is the real threat?
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Especially as it will equally apply to the non patient facing staff, many who are arranging the elective appointments trying to catch up with the backlog of procedures.
Where I am my Trust is running at about 75-80% vaccinated, not sure of the reasons for non take-up, many have had CV19 at the beginning so are using that as protection plus being in S-London sadly many in the community have a mistrust of the vaccine.
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I see Sage are predicting up to 5 more years before this downgrades to a "predictable endemic state".
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-will-be-plagued-by-covid-for-at-least-five-years-7v90l05l6
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 4 Dec 21 at 12:22
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There is no doubt it will become "the norm". For a first world economy tho I think 5 years is a bit on the long side. Spanish flu was three years.
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 4 Dec 21 at 12:28
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Here's how it's looking in S=Scotland (you'd need to click on the pdf link)
www.gov.scot/publications/omicron-scotland-evidence-paper/
A more senior medic up there I'm acquainted with says they have been asked to invoke emergency continuity plans and get ready for a further covid wave. Their R rate is apparently 2.1
Gove knows something too
news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-government-shown-very-challenging-new-information-on-omicron-and-will-keep-restrictions-under-review-says-michael-gove-12492075
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It is probable Omicron is spreads more rapidly than the current dominant Delta variant.
It is likely that current vaccines are less effective against Omicron infection.
The initial assessment is that Omicron produces less severe disease.
The original proposition that the NHS is not be overwhelmed still seems a reasonable policy.
Confidence in projections made requires confidence in the assumptions being made. Right now that confidence is limited. Over the next 10-15 days I would expect both scientific and data analysis to largely eliminate the uncertainty.
I have limited sympathy for those too foolish to get vaccinated. However if Omicron has the capacity to cause severe disease in those already vaccinated (and boosted), NHS could be under real threat.
My natural inclination is for "business as usual", but a two or three week "wait and see" policy seems entirely reasonable.
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You’ve limited sympathy for those too foolish to get vaccinated
I’ve absolutely sweet FA sympathy.
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How did your return and quarantine go, LL?
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>> How did your return and quarantine go, LL?
>>
Easy Peasy thank you.
Flew ex ALC > LBA on the ‘BeniBus’ as low costs flights from Alicante are known locally....15:45.
Pre booked a lateral flow antigen test for 10:30 that morning...in and out within 15 minutes with a negative and ‘fit to fly’ Certificate €40 poorer. Several local places offer the test, all the same price..bit of a cartel going on methinks.
Time for a large coffee, soak up the rays, chat to a few folks on the beach...return Meg the 16yo Megane loaner to Victoria Parking then check in. Quiet at the airport, easy transit, home in time for fish, chips and mushy peas just before the chippy closed.
Did my Day2 PCR test yesterday AM, posted in my local priority mail box, awaiting result later today, then hopefully out for (proper) beers this evening. IF my local is quiet...avoiding crowded indoor places. And ruddy Christmas markets. No change there.
Stay healthy
ps. If I’d shown a positive I’d have had to isolate in the sun for a further 10 days. Not a problem for me as I had an empty apartment to return to, a loan car, and I’d have continued as before if I’m honest. If you had a job to return to, travelling with family etc it could be a nightmare and I’m unsure of the insurance implications.
Last edited by: legacylad on Sat 11 Dec 21 at 06:44
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Have a read of the article from Scotland I posted earlier Terry. There is clearly a perceived and strong feeling that government should act. One of the more stark warnings things in that paper for me is not about hospitalisations but says
"Omicron is spreading at a rate that threatens a rapid and large surge of COVID-19 cases. Even if the resulting illness is relatively mild the number of cases could potentially cause great disruption to other services, in the economy and businesses, and in wider society, as more people would be absent from work due to illness and asked to isolate if they test positive, or as contacts of someone who has tested positive."
Also here are Sage minutes from a few days ago, I picked out a few gems to quote here but it may have looked like I was quoting selectively.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021/sage-98-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-december-2021
it strikes me that now isn't the time for a two or three week wait while we vacillate over what to do.
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>>it strikes me that now isn't the time for a two or three week wait while we vacillate over what to do.
So, if you had the power, what would you do w.e.f. from midnight tonight?
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I don't consider myself sufficiently knowledgeable to pronounce. So I'd take advice from the experts.
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So I'd take advice from the experts.
>>
I can't say I follow 'named' experts on this, but seems to me to be a pretty broad view on what to do. Bit like, how do you get two views on the economy, ask one economist.
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I don't think many of the experts are suggesting it should be let rip through the country, but it has been suggested here and elsewhere that that could be the way to go, to achieve herd immunity.
Arguments against that which I've read suggests the following, in no particular order:
- although it may only be mild, it's as yet unknown whether it will induce long covid.
- a suggestion has been made that it is only appearing to be milder as the majority of cases are in younger people who often suffered less under other variants then the older generation
- there is a real risk of overwhelming the NHS if (when) large numbers succumb to it - patient stays may be shorter and less may get seriously ill or die but the churn of patients could be unmanageable, and present an intolerable burden on the system, and, more importantly, its staff
- as the Scottish paper suggest, mass illness and absence from work could affect all kinds of services and activities
This NHA report from yesterday suggests potentially a million cases in the UK by Christmas Day although I understand there have so far been no hospitalisations or deaths due to Omicron.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 11 Dec 21 at 10:21
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>> I don't think many of the experts are suggesting it should be let rip through
>> the country,
Like i said i don't follow them too much, but some probably have.
although I understand there have so far been no hospitalisations or deaths due to
>> Omicron.
I find it a bit difficult to reconcile things like that, if it's true, and the breathless statements that keep coming out everyday.
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It's too early to press the button on deliberate mass infection even if it were seriously to be considered which I don't believe it should. There will be much more precise information about the severity of Omicron in a matter of days.
I still think vaccines should be the preferred method of achieving immunity, but that seems to depend on greater takeup.
Perhaps the "vaccine hesitant" can be persuaded that mass vaccination would be less bad than mass infection, as Fewer lives will be lost in collateral damage?
Vaccination also has the advantage that it does not turn the population into a huge mutation generator. This virus has demonstrated its propensity to mutate.
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> Perhaps the "vaccine hesitant" can be persuaded that mass vaccination would be less bad than
>> mass infection, as Fewer lives will be lost in collateral damage?
>>
>>
One person i know who won't have the jab thinks that there isn't any side effects message can't hold much water as not enough time has passed to fully know yet. I think he said he'd have a look at having it in a couple of years.
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>> One person i know who won't have the jab thinks that there isn't any side
>> effects message can't hold much water as not enough time has passed to fully know
>> yet. I think he said he'd have a look at having it in a couple
>> of years.
I've heard this from several. My comment is that nobody knows the long term effects of a serious dose of Covid_19 either.
It's an extreme case of motivated reasoning, they stack up the risks of vaccination but ignore the risks of refusing it. The most obvious missing comparison between those choices is the known mortality risk.
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>>
>> , they stack up the risks of vaccination but
>> ignore the risks of refusing it.
In this case no, they've weighed them up. It's a chance they are content to take.
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Yeah Sturgeon said, and I paraphrase, if you continue with works xmas parties you the employer run the risk of having large numbers of your staff absent.
Scottish football teams have now been told that any omicron positives on a team bus will result in everyone in that bus having to isolate for 10 days. Will have huge ramifications for the football calendar.
AFAIK the NHS tracker app thingy will still only “record” those within 2 metres of you??? So if they are saying everyone in a football coach are at risk, doesn’t bode well for every public bus and train carriage out there?
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About 10% of adults have not had a vaccine, and 20% have yet to have two jabs. Therefore between about 5m and 10m are under vaccinated.
Until vaccine rollout started in Jan 2021 the number of cases recorded was 3.4m, hospitalisations 0.3m (~10% of cases) and deaths 77k (~25% of hospitalisations).
Applying these ratios to those who are only partially or not vaccinated of ~7.5m people would suggest hospitalisations of 750k and deaths of 75k. Given the transmissability of Omicron this could happen over (say) 3 months/100days.
Per day - hospitalisations of 7500, deaths of 750. This would be a major impact.
This is not intended to fearmonger - just a crude estimate of possible impacts. Reports are that infection may be less severe, those unvaccinated are typically the younger age groups, many will already have some natural immunity from earlier infection etc.
Offsetting this is the potential to infect those who have been vaccinated and cause severe disease.
Some caution until the uncertanties are better understood is sensible - although it is inevitably a compromise between over-reaction and complacency.
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I don't know if many are using the Govt supplied LFTs at home but today the website says no more home tests are available.
Maybe just a glitch.
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>> I don't know if many are using the Govt supplied LFTs at home but today
>> the website says no more home tests are available.
Thought I saw a few weeks ago about them no longer being free.
If so it made no sense then and even less now Omicron is to the fore.
EDIT: A local search suggests they're available at the village pharmacy but you need a collection code. Seen code being used previously in the instore pharmacy at Sainsbos
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 13 Dec 21 at 11:29
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Poster on another forum suggests that Boris's broadcast last night might have led to a run on supplies.
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Some people must getting through them like no bodies business.
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Once those needed for access to hospitality type venues and, even if only as a precaution, testing after potential contacts are added to those needed for work etc then I guess demand will peak.
We've got about 20 tests (not packs) on the shelf in the utility. One batch acquired before we holidayed in Scotland in May 01 when a negative test was requested by Cal Mac for the Western Isles ferry.
Second batch when Mrs B had exposure/cold symptoms in October.
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As far as I know all NHS staff now have to request their LF tests via the NHS website which will be interesting... up until a few months ago we had our own bulk supplies onsite in the Trust but once they ran out we were directed to the website.
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I know someone who does covid testing at Southampton Cruise Terminal. He has a room full of them.
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Perhaps so, i guess some people get through lots of them. Got me thinking how many I've used, 10 or so i would think.
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It'll be like toilet rolls.
Boxes and boxes squirreled away 'just in case' only to be eventually thrown away.
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People see no value in anything they can get free, regardless of what it costs. They should charge a couple of pounds each for them.
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>> People see no value in anything they can get free, regardless of what it costs.
>> They should charge a couple of pounds each for them.
I can afford a couple of quid but my Yorkshireman's short arms might leave me reluctant to purchase and without when I need them.
If you've got kids and need to test them for school or are in low paid work where regular tests are needed even £2 is quite a bar.
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They should be free to ensure they are used as widely as needed - charging would certainly be a barrier for some.
If given free they have no value - they only attain a value if they become scarce. So the big mistake is giving them away for free and then running out!
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>>>> People see no value in anything they can get free, regardless of what it costs.
>> They should charge a couple of pounds each for them.
Always the issue. It affects other things as well.
See how someone will spend £20 they've earned versus how they will spend £20 they win from a fruit machine.
I don't think there's much you can do about it, you just have to suck it up. Better than than tests not being available when needed. And for some families, £2 per test will prevent them purchasing tests, even when it shouldn't.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 13 Dec 21 at 15:57
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I see the Dr from SA that spotted the omicron variant has briefed some of the MPs today, seems that, on early evidence, this variant is starting to taper off and cases still seem mild and the few that are in hospital only stay for a few days.
How much this reflects what may happen here, I guess is anybodies guess.
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UK removes all 11 countries from red list
www.bbc.com/news/business-59653236
"Health Secretary Sajid Javid said it had spread so widely the rules no longer had much purpose."
No s***, Sherlock? What a dick.
Ridiculous Government actions driven by ill-informed media s***e and sensationalism. What a joy.
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I'm not sure I agree with him. If you're trying to bail out your boat, you don't say a hole in the bottom doesn't matter because the boat's nearly full anyway.
I'd like to think somebody has done some sums - 'common sense' can easily lead to the wrong conclusions.
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But we still have the stupidity of lateral flow tests before coming to the UK, and PCR day 2 test when you get back.
Just spent £150 on this for wife and I. If it made sense I would have no problem - but with Omicron so widespread in the UK community, and coming from a country with less virus than the UK, it makes no sense at all.
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Nephew was due to get delayed operation on cruciate ligament. Taking lateral flow tests daily and negative. But pre operation PCR was positive so operation cancelled. Even though lateral flow tests taken 24 hours either side were negative. Asked if he could take another PCR but wasn’t allowed.
So now has to isolate for 10 days and no operation. Merry Christmas.
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Government have laid an order to increase the period an employee can self certify as sick from 7 to 28 days:
www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2021/1453/made
Stated intention is to free up GP time for vaccinating.
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Wow that will be interesting for us at work....
Hopefully they'll make it well known if it goes through.
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According to the terms of the order it starts tomorrow and runs until 26-01-22 so only temporary which I'd not appreciated when it first popped up on a work related forum.
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Just catching up and listened to this.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0011498
An interview with Professor Sharon Peacock, who off her own bat (foot?) kicked off the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium in March 2020.
Quite an inspirational story.
The same podcast (A Life Scientific) also has an interview with Patrick Vallance, more focused on how a Chief Scientific Adviser functions. I was interested because a friend of mine used to work for him and esteems him.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09ydn63
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Absolute must watch documentary on BBC2 about the Covid-19 pandemic, tomorrow night at 9.00pm.
Two brothers from the Wuhan Research Centre, where Trump suspects COVID-19 was engineered, were due to get on Flight MH370 that mysteriously disappeared. It seems they were the guys behind the development of the new strain, and intending to use it as a weapon.
Someone caught wind of their plans and purposely downed the plane. But apparently neither of them got on the flight and no-one knows what happened to them. It's really interesting....
it's called 'Two Wongs Don't Make a Flight'
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get your coat right know and FO.
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For any Line of Duty fans and even if you are not :)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y18CrgFdh4&t=154s
Last edited by: Fullchat on Fri 17 Dec 21 at 22:07
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>> For any Line of Duty fans and even if you are not :)
>>
>> www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y18CrgFdh4&t=154s
>>
Good spot FC.
Someone has got some cool recourses to do that!
Did I also read somewhere that the senior civil servant tasked with investigating the matter, is himself under suspicion for doing exactly the same thing!?
You could not make this up!
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Any bets that a Govt announcement late on the 26th or 27th Dec will be about a 3 week lockdown for us ?
It’s just a gut feeling I have
Friends family pre Christmas trip, 12 of them staying at Club Med in Val d’Isere has just gone seins up
And I’m not not confident about being allowed back into Spain mid February.
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>> Any bets that a Govt announcement late on the 26th or 27th Dec will be
>> about a 3 week lockdown for us ?
>> It’s just a gut feeling I have
...due to the kids other commitments, we have/had postponed our Christmas get together until the 27th.
I think that is very much at risk..... :-(
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>> ...due to the kids other commitments, we have/had postponed our Christmas get together until the
>> 27th.
>>
>> I think that is very much at risk..... :-(
I've been out this morning to retrieve the caravan from storage so it can be sorted and vittled for a booked trip to Southport from 23/12. Going from there to my daughter's in laws for a family get together on the 27th.
Now getting a sense of deja-vu.
Is Boris going on TV tomorrow or Monday to announce a circuit breaker immediately after Christmas?
Or even a return of last year's 'one day only' celebrations.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sat 18 Dec 21 at 14:08
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Wouldn't he have to go to the HoC and get a vote on any more restrictions?
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....I doubt it. He'd have to recall them first, and he'd probably plead urgency I think (whatever he might have told his own party about imposing further constraint without debate).
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>> Wouldn't he have to go to the HoC and get a vote on any more
>> restrictions?
Only based on his own commitments to his party. And we all know Johnson's commitments are meaningless.
Under the legislation he can act immediately with any vote to follow.
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Whether Boris takes his responsibilities seriously or not is a matter for conjecture, but I don't envy his challenge right now.
Assume the lag between infection and hospitalisation is (say) 6 days, and the virus is doubling every 2 days. But we don't yet know how severe it is.
Act today and it seems an unjustified over-reaction.
Act in 6 days time when the virus has multiplied 8 fold and it's too late to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.
Whatever he does he will be judged wrong - even if he gets it right!
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I think if people knew the predictions in todays document from one of the official groups they'd be a bit more understanding.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-15-december-2021/spi-m-o-consensus-statement-on-covid-19-15-december-2021
Look for Table 1, which predicts figures between 200,000 and 2 million infections per day, depending on scenario.
It does say "As Omicron is doubling so quickly, it is highly likely that, if behaviour changed or measures were implemented only after noticeable increases in admissions, it would be too late to significantly reduce the subsequent peak in mild and severe disease."
For balance, it also says further down "Extensive uncertainties in these scenarios remain".
But on the whole, much as I don't want it again, based on that document I would say they ought to just get on with lockdown.
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Holland announced a strict lockdown wef tomorrow (Sunday)
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59713503
"Non-essential shops, bars, gyms hairdressers and other public venues will be closed until at least mid-January. Two guests per household will be allowed - four over the holidays."
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...what's an "essential" bar....? (or gym or hairdresser for that matter).
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>Look for Table 1, which predicts figures between 200,000 and 2 million infections per day...
The number of infections is virtually meaningless and not a valid reason for full lockdown without some measure of the effects solely due to the virus. South Africa reported earlier this week that the majority of their covid hospitalisations were unvaccinated.
If early signs show that is the case in the UK then the Govt. needs to grow a pair and tell our own unvaccinated to stay at home or get locked up to let everyone else get on with life.
Furthermore, guessing the number of infections and then calling it "modelling" is utter BS.
All that document says is that they don't have a Danny La Rue but they want something, anything to justify Plan C.
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Thank the Lord for C4P, we are so much better informed here than all those scientific wonks :-)
I believe it's unboosted as well as unvaccinated.
Does data modelling not usually depend on assumptions and guesswork? Though I since have read that the "doubles every day" is in doubt, but there seems no doubt that it is multiplying swiftly however you look at it.
I believe one concern is that if many many people are off sick with it, it could affect the provision of essential services.
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Sarcasm aside, I certainly know a helluva lot more about modelling than whoever wrote that document.
Modelling implies that you start with a quantifiably accurate dataset and have some idea of the relationship between the datapoints. They have neither.
And if their 'models' are anything like that dipsh it Prof. Ferguson's, they may as well feed it lottery numbers and see what it pukes out.
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>> Sarcasm aside, I certainly know a helluva lot more about modelling than whoever wrote that
>> document.
>>
>> Modelling implies that you start with a quantifiably accurate dataset and have some idea of
>> the relationship between the datapoints.
In your game, yeah certainly. . This aint your playing field. Its a different game with different shaped balls.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 19 Dec 21 at 08:37
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>..Its a different game with different shaped balls.
The data and the relationships might be (are) different but the principles are the same.
And my gripe isn't with the real scientists. It's with the fools trying to manipulate public opinion and give credence to what is essentially guesswork by calling it modelling.
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>> Modelling implies that you start with a quantifiably accurate dataset and have some idea of
>> the relationship between the datapoints. They have neither.
There is no quantifiably accurate data set; severity of disease is a known unknown.
By the time we find out either that it is severe in UK cohort or that it's not but that 0.2% of (say) 3 million infections is enough to overwhelm ICU capacity it's too late.
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Yesterday i happened to be reading an article about the phrase no evidence as used extensively in the press.
astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-phrase-no-evidence-is-a-red-flag
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>There is no quantifiably accurate data set; severity of disease is a
>known unknown.
Good, glad to see we agree.
>By the time we find out either that it is severe in UK cohort or that
>it's not but that 0.2% of (say) 3 million infections is enough to
>overwhelm ICU capacity it's too late.
Not sure where you get the numbers from but I'll ask you this:
Omicron isn't the last mutation of this bug that we're going to see and one of them is pretty likely to be just as infectious. Do you want to see restrictions imposed immediately a new variant starts spreading until we're sure it's a pussycat?
(You might have already guessed but I am not very impulsive, I like to see the tiniest smidge of evidence or scientific concensus before I jump in with both feet. It's my biggest character flaw.)
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Scientists will always be cautious - they only need worry about the science. Complacency could damage their reputation permanently.
The government will be very aware that if they "cry wolf" too often people will simply ignore any warnings, guidance and legislation. So they need evidence (risks, probabilities, outcomes etc) before forming a balanced conclusion.
Some will claim action is too late and too little, others that any action is a gross abuse of personal and civil liberties. Some of this driven by rational concerns, but most is political gaming.
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Very risky business that, he's already squeezed a vote through the opposition once, i'm not sure he can keep doing that.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 18 Dec 21 at 21:16
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Reality is that no one knows with any reasonable level of confidence what the outcome will be.
Relying on very limited evidence from South Africa to justify complacency is not good risk management - demographics, economy, vaccination level etc are very different to UK.
FWIW I think that Boris will not want to introduce further measures before xmas - it may be political suicide for him personally even if a recalled Parliament voted for it.
I would expect a press conference with a simple message - booster, booster, caution, caution, etc etc. Further announcement in 10 days when real data can be better evaluated.
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Was my post unclear Terry?
I said that "If early signs show that is the case in the UK..", I did not say that we should "rely" on data from South Africa.
(Although dismissing it completely would actually be a more suitable avenue for pontificating about complacency.)
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>> I said that "If early signs show that is the case in the UK..", I
>> did not say that we should "rely" on data from South Africa.
The data from my area is quite revealing.
Case numbers are rising but only in the under 60 age group. I'd like to see this split down further by age but my guess and local experience is its being driven by the much younger who haven't been boosted and have been out socialising. Of all my social circle the only cases are the children (a 35 to 20 age group)
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>> Did I also read somewhere that the senior civil servant tasked with investigating the matter,
>> is himself under suspicion for doing exactly the same thing!?
>>
>> You could not make this up!
Yep. He's recused himself and they've appointed somebody else. Heard her name before and I think she's got a reputation for being thorough.
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>> Heard her name before and I
>> think she's got a reputation for being thorough.
She would have been the ideal person to organise the secret Christmas party then.
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data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios
I wondered what the various predictions given by the scientific groups vs what happened. Some of them aren't 100% comparable as they are against scenarios that didn't happen. Ie what if there were no restrictions and there was, still i think its interesting.
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Probably missed the edit, an interesting exchange on twitter from one of the scientists on SPI-M. They didn't model optimistic scenarios (note not predictions) because ministers weren't interested in scenarios that they didn't have to do anything. They only wanted scenarios where they have to act. Some would no doubt think it a 'gotcha' moment, I'm not so sure. But I think it's an area (for example predictions vs scenarios) that's been poorly explained to the public.
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>> that they didn't have to do anything. They only wanted scenarios where they have to
>> act.
And quite right too, running a country is not just about covid. you dont need to know or worry about stuff you don't need to do anything about. if you did nothing would get done about anything.
edit. A considered management decision to do nothing, is still active management.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 19 Dec 21 at 09:51
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>> edit. A considered management decision to do nothing, is still active management.
I'm not saying it's a bad thing, just something I'd read about how these scenarios come to being.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 20 Dec 21 at 02:45
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I can't dispute that but the doc I linked to above has three scenarios depending on which state we are put in
- stay as we are
- step 1 of roadmap
- step 2 of roadmap
I'm not sure there is any other more optimistic scenario really.
The roadmap is the one from earlier in the year assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf
I can remember at work managers not being interested to hear all the ins and outs of each option, instead just wanting my "specialist" advice on the top few options and their pros and cons.
EDIT: Zero's post wasn't there when I started typing this one. He says the same, but quicker. I got distracted :-)
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 19 Dec 21 at 09:59
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I imagine this is where you got your info Sooty.
www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
The JP Morgan scenario is most unlikely so it was not included. The journo has spun that entire conversation to suit his agenda. The science bloke is simply telling him what Zero said.
The journo at one point says; I may be being thick". He is. (See what I did there? :-) )
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It was yes.
I don't think he spun the twitter conversation, more interested from what I read. Although I've not had time to read the article in your post.
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Omicron is apparently past its peak in SA and cases are falling rapidly. Boris (and we) might just get lucky.
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Not in hospitals... we are now redeploying staff into ITU and transferring non-Covid sick patients out to other Trusts.
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>> Not in hospitals... we are now redeploying staff into ITU and transferring non-Covid sick patients
>> out to other Trusts.
I didn't suggest we had peaked here. The new cases haven't peaked yet and admissions will continue rising, going by the pipeline. And I don't suppose the new cases figure is going to be too reliable over the holiday.
Still odds on for a tightening I would say, which should probably have happened already. Johnson is gambling. Whitty and Vallance have made it clear they don't want control of policy but if they were accountable I think we would have had a lockdown. "There are still a lot of things we don't know, but everything we do know is bad".
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Whitty and Vallance seem to me to be highly intelligent people of integrity - like most of the scientific community.
They will be cautious - they would not want to be held responsible for government failure to act based on their science and modelling, when with hindsight it clearly should.
Politicians have to balance the advice received with the impact on economy, jobs, inflation, long term GDP, public sector borrowing etc. They carry the can for outcomes - good or bad.
Only time will tell if Boris has made the right call. Right now predictable contrasting opinions prevail, driven more by political alignment, not objective analysis - big risk, more restriction vs wait, understand the data first.
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>> Whitty and Vallance seem to me to be highly intelligent people of integrity - like
>> most of the scientific community.
>>
>> They will be cautious
Cautious at the moment means knowing that we can't be sure the NHS won't be overwhelmed based on the Christmas infection controls. On that basis we should tighten, but there are other adverse impacts from that, which are outwith the purview of Vallance and Whitty.
If you are interested in what they think, listen to Vallance interviewed by Jim Al-Khalili on 'Scientifically...' (BBC R4). He prefers the phrase "informed by science" to "following the science".
Chris Whitty appears more bashful when it comes to speaking about his job, but he seems to have a similar view - his Q&A sessions are outstanding, IMO he is among the cleverest of clever people and I have yet to hear a poor or non-answer from him. When asked e.g whether we should lock down at a particular time he has usually answered to the effect that only politicians taking the wider view can decide that, armed with the best views available on clinical risks. There's also a 'Profile' programme on him as well as on Vallance.
I think Whitty was for a while interim Chief Scientific Adviser himself, before becoming CMO. He is something of a polymath.
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Good news, but they do qualify it further down with
"There is also uncertainty about what will happen when Omicron reaches older age groups as most of those catching it and going into hospital so far are under the age of 40."
and also say that
"There are also signs that the effect of booster doses is waning"
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Haha that has the makings of a comedy sketch...
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 24 Dec 21 at 08:34
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Obviously Mr Fallen needs to find another career.
A lawyer "professionally embarrassed"?!
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...that's legal shorthand for "I've discovered my client hasn't got any money and I haven't been able to arrange Legal Aid"....
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Am convinced in 6 months time the scientists are going to say oops, sorry guys, we have discovered that Omnicron is actually just the common cold.
Know loads of folk who have tested positive. Not one person has said it is any worse than a common cold and that’s just the ones who actually have any symptoms.
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Family member who's CEV (clinically extremely vulnerable) told me they had a knock on the door this afternoon and there was a postman with a package. It's a Sunday and Boxing day, what sort of hourly rate are they getting?
Anyway this package contained an urgent PCR test, with very explicit instructions how to send it via a priority mail box or courier if they show any symptoms. They're aware of an anti-viral drug treatment available for people in their circumstances, but now they're seriously scared. They've been taking very careful precautions and haven't left the house or received visitors since Omicron raised it's head.
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I got both an email and a snail mail letter explaining about my son qualifying for the new treatment and that they would be sending a PCR test to use if he gets symptoms. I was rather pleased he qualified, although as immune compromised was surprised I didn’t.
Our local area had a postal problem with so many staff off with Covid that they have had some Sunday deliveries, so presume the tests will be included in those.
More problematic here is the scarcity of LFT kits, as testing is required before going to day service or respite.. having had son at home for over a year and now having gained restricted day service and respite am keeping fingers crossed we don’t run out!
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>> More problematic here is the scarcity of LFT kits,
Indeed its an issue here too. None of the pharmacies have any stock. we have two on hand, and I'll' use one of them to enable attendance at a dog show.
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They have been giving out packs at Lion Retail Park in Woking in the car park every Friday morning/afternoon until their stocks run out. They were giving them out on Christmas Eve, when all the pharmacies were out of stock, so should be on NYE as well.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 30 Dec 21 at 03:48
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We raided our stock of LFTs to pre test for social engagements over the Xmas etc period, Flow Before You Go being the slogan in Wales, and need to top up.
Been able to order them on line in last few minutes today for postal delivery - should arrive in next 3 days.
Intention was to order for collection at village pharmacy but that option was not offered.
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>> Been able to order them on line in last few minutes today for postal delivery
>> - should arrive in next 3 days.
Arrived in ordinary post this morning - approx 48 hours after ordering
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They were giving them out in the Lion Retail Park Woking yesterday too apparently, might be worth a trip down there today for anyone in need in the area.
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>> They were giving them out in the Lion Retail Park Woking yesterday too apparently, might
>> be worth a trip down there today for anyone in need in the area.
Thanks - will pop down there, its not far away. I can check out what's in the Currys sale.
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>> Thanks - will pop down there, its not far away. I can check out what's
>> in the Currys sale.
If not I have a spare box and don't live far from you.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 30 Dec 21 at 03:49
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>> >> Thanks - will pop down there, its not far away. I can check out
>> what's
>> >> in the Currys sale.
>> >>
>> If not I have a spare box and don't live far from you.
Just got back from LRP, Nothing there and worse Curry's has closed down!!!!!!
Thanks for the offer, I have two spare tho they are spoken for - may panic later next month
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>>
>> >> More problematic here is the scarcity of LFT kits,
I had a pack waiting for me when I got home from Spain. Now used up.
Local chemist gets a few delivered every 3 days...then people queue around the block once word gets out and they’re gone within the hour.
As for home delivery....I’ve tried almost every day. No chance...even putting in different postcodes for delivery. Tried at 7AM today and again 90 mins later.
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Must be all the nightclubers round your way LL.
Seriously though, that seems a bit much. I wonder if it's the new bog roll panic.
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>> Must be all the nightclubers round your way LL.
>>
>> Seriously though, that seems a bit much. I wonder if it's the new bog roll
>> panic.
Getting that way, but I put my conspiracy hat on, and I think its HM govs way of limiting our freedom. You need a test to go anywhere, but you cant get the test,. Brilliant ploy
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>You need a test to go anywhere, but you cant get the test,. Brilliant ploy
Not needed, they just get Bill to switch your chip off if they want you to stay at home.
Remember last week when you went into the kitchen and then couldn't recall what you'd gone for?
Nah. You won't remember that either.
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>> Remember last week when you went into the kitchen and then couldn't recall what you'd
>> gone for?
>>
>> Nah. You won't remember that either.
Nah raspberry - I do see, It was the hobnobs.(I just found them in the dishwasher)
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The NHS test ordering website actually says there are no home delivery slots, not there are not tests. I thought I'd read they'd engaged Amazon to assist.
Maybe the delivery organisations are suffering high absenteeism as a result of Omicron
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>> The NHS test ordering website actually says there are no home delivery slots, not there
>> are not tests. I thought I'd read they'd engaged Amazon to assist.
whatever the words say they mean one thing - you cant get a test kit sent to your home.
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>> >> The NHS test ordering website actually says there are no home delivery slots,
>> whatever the words say they mean one thing - you cant get a test kit sent to your home.
>>
That means I will have to ask a neighbour to search for some .
There must be others stuck indoors and needing kits.
Son , DIL and 18month have tested positive but four and a half year old was negative.
Wondering if the school age lad has had Covid and they did not detect any affects ?
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Got two kits at Boots in Weybridge today. Shop assistant there said there were 8 million kits shipped out to pharmacies over night,
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>> >> The NHS test ordering website actually says there are no home delivery slots, not
>> there
>> >> are not tests. I thought I'd read they'd engaged Amazon to assist.
>>
>> whatever the words say they mean one thing - you cant get a test kit
>> sent to your home.
>>
The problem is the same as was the case for toilet roll and petrol though isn’t it? Any hint of a shortage and everyone orders a few ‘just in case’ and all of a sudden, there is a shortage.
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>> Am convinced in 6 months time the scientists are going to say oops, sorry guys,
>> we have discovered that Omnicron is actually just the common cold.
>> Know loads of folk who have tested positive. Not one person has said it is
>> any worse than a common cold and that’s just the ones who actually have any
>> symptoms.
Thats only the ones alive to tell you.
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Over the last 3 months with Delta, hospitalisations ran at ~1.5% of reported cases (~50k per day cases, ~750 hospitalised).
Currently reported cases are ~120k per day, growing at a fast rate and may be 250k per day inside the next week.
Were hospital admissions at the current rate, the daily hospitalised rate would be up to ~3500-4000 per day - a real stretch for the NHS.
Who would want to be the complacent scientist that failed to warn government of a real risk the NHS will be overwhelmed.
Fortunately it does seem to be the case that Omicron is less severe. But until there is reasonable confidence through additional data in the models used, caution is the best policy.
You are welcome to express the opinion that it will be no worse than a bad cold - you may even be right. But I would not act on the basis of limited anecdotal evidence.
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Coronavirus - Volume 38 - No FM2R
