Non-motoring > Sainsbo's next for buy-out? Miscellaneous
Thread Author: Lygonos Replies: 41

 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
Sainsbury shares went up over 15% today amidst speculation of an impending (US?) private equity buy-out.

Along with Redrow was a company I thought was undervalued compared to its competitors back in early 2020.

Anyone got their eye on other companies ripe for a "change in management"?
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 23 Aug 21 at 17:21
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - legacylad
I bought £3k of FCCN a few months ago. As usual DYOR:
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - legacylad
Anyone else have a dabble with FCCN ? Up 35% in a month so debating whether to take the profit and run or top slice.

LLs latest ‘gamble’ is TCAP bought yesterday @ 167.

Other ‘gambles’ have gone disastrously wrong...lost the lot on 5 smaller companies involved in pharmaceuticals and technology these past 2 years, so my dealing history isn’t particularly one to follow !
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
Didn't go for FCVK but wonder about Airtel Africa - surely a growth area.....


www.youinvest.co.uk/market-research/LSE%3AAAF
Last edited by: Lygonos on Thu 23 Sep 21 at 17:29
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - legacylad
Don’t follow my advice !
Sold a lot, a real LOT, of Pantheon last week @ 56p. Glad to make 25% over 5 years...today they closed 20% up on the day at 74.9p SP.
Could have made more in the past 5 days as I did in the previous 5 years.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Manatee
>> Don’t follow my advice !
>> Sold a lot, a real LOT, of Pantheon last week @ 56p. Glad to make
>> 25% over 5 years...today they closed 20% up on the day at 74.9p SP.
>> Could have made more in the past 5 days as I did in the previous
>> 5 years.

That's the difficulty with trading (acknowledging that you held that one for 5 years). When a share does really well it's easy to miss out because it's natural to want to bank what seems like a decent recovery or profit, and you just sell on the way up. The reverse when buying "cheap" shares, it's too easy to buy on the way down. This is why they always say diversifying, buying and holding for a long, long time is nearly always more profitable in the long run than 'active management'.

Unfortunately you have reminded me that I once bought 10,000 Next plc at 16p, and sold soon afterwards at 27p. Currently at over £80 and have paid out many times my original investment in divs. I am a terrible investor. My SIPP has done OK because I never touch it.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - legacylad
9 companies I bought in my self select ISA ceased trading in the past 3 years. Not good as I transferred my cash ISA into a trading ISA.
Thought I could do better trading myself.
I’ve still got high hopes for a few speculative shares, one of which I am very heavily invested ...
I’m in that one for the long haul, or until the company ceases trading.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
My SIPP is taken care of by experts but my ISA is invested 100% in Synairgen, currently somewhere around £1.60 per share mark and I have quite a few of them!

They are trialling a nebulised interferon B therapeutic for COVID and the more knowledgeable people I hang out with on another forum think this Thursday could be a big day.

All my eggs in one basket.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - No FM2R
Didn't it already have its big day 6 months ago?

Still many seem optimistic and stress strong buy, not so sure myself but what do I know.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Terry
Share trading is simply a gamble. Not really any different to horses - you analyse the form, the competition, the market, the products etc and form a conclusion.

Sadly there are countless others doing precisely the same thing. Many of these folk will likely be better informed and more knowledgable than you.

There is a fundamental economic proposition that the price today reflects all anticipated future events. To profit consistently you need some real inside information (legalities aside).

Like the horses, active share trading can be addictive or seem like fun. I have some share ISAs linked to FT 100 or 250 index - they are a buy and forget item until I need the cash.

The result - I may or may not do better than had I actively invested, there is no "high" from a killing, no "horror" at a loss, and I don't need to watch the financial news with trepidation.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - PeterS
The Warren Budffet approach: “It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

I don’t have the patience or attention to detail to be an active investor, so I tend not to trade that way. Time in the market and decent tracker funds allow me not to have to worry about it. So far at least…
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
Synairgen's drug is going through the three phases of trial required to get approval. There are two separate trials for slightly different versions. News is expected soon on both sets of trials, and hopefully will result in moving to the next phase (as opposed to being booted off the trial) which, if successful, should result in a significant price rise. Lack of interferons regularly comes up as a major issue in COVID (also COPD and ther respiratory illness), and that is what their products deliver.

It's definitely a gamble but with potentially huge rewards. for me and for mankind :-). I really hope it is successful as when you listen to experts talking, vaccines are only part of the story and it's a drug of this nature which is needed, especially for the vast numbers elsewhere who can't/won't get vaxxed (e.g. the US!)
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - No FM2R
Synairgen's shares would appear to have dropped 10% on the day and 20% on the week for a net change of 0% over the year.

Is there anything to come, do you think?
Last edited by: No FM2R on Thu 30 Sep 21 at 15:49
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
There's a certain level of expectancy in the market so the price will already be pumped up.

I suspect they'll not do that well - interferon isn't usually a well tolerated medication and it's unusual to make huge amounts of money from 'one-use' medications. As soon as something cleaner comes along it'll be worthless (assuming it is better than current treatment).

Just my 2p, and would be delighted to be proved wrong and a very effective treatment developed - just makes me think of Tamiflu - a medication that made money on overblown promises.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
They issued a half year statement today which showed some dates have slipped which the market didn't like. It opened near 10% down the =n mostly recovered until an analyst briefing at 13:00, and it's down over 10%.

My understanding is that interferon is a naturally occurring protein which we all produce as part of our immune defences. Some of us have more than others and COVID seems worse in those who are somewhat deficient (simple explanation but there are now hundreds of pukka scientific papers which support that). It has been said that it as what the Chinese gave to the initial COVID victims.

Like many things, it hasn't always been tolerated well as a jab but Synairgen deliver it by nebuliser which puts it directly into the lungs where it seems to gave the best effect. They were developing this long before COVID, as a treatment for COPD.

They are on the US Activ2 program, and most importantly haven't yet been thrown off, as many have during their testing for not meeting the requirements. They are expected to be move to phase 3 imminently, which should give the shares a kick, though it could go the other way and the shares could drop massively. Phase 3 will end early in the New Year and if successful could make them a multi-billion pound company, or they will partner with or get taken over by a major pharmco.

Activ2 from Feb www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/nih-four-covid-19-drugs-activ/ - I think that all the other drugs enrolled at that time have since been proved ineffective, though AZs AZD7442 seems to have been given a second chance after failing in June.

They are also carrying out their own trials in a different setting (essentially non-hospitalised) and are already in Phase 3 of that, which had some promising results in phase 2.

A one-drug company was bought today for $11.5bn cash by Merck.

There is also plenty of competition in the COVID market but my take is that Synairgen is quite well advanced through the process and has the support of the US government - less so the UK, but unfortunately our own government are rather more hung up on vaccines that they ought to be. And of course stuff made by their mates, whether it works or not.

Here's a link to their website which summarises what they're up to. www.synairgen.com/covid-19/


PS Just looking at the after-hours trades I'd be surprised if the share price stays anywhere near it's current level tomorrow but I'll probably be wrong.
Last edited by: smokie on Thu 30 Sep 21 at 21:17
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - No FM2R
From an investor perspective it's been an underperforming outlying oddity for some months. It seems to be well regarded, though I'm not sure quite why. Early Covid oriented over reaction perhaps.

I think perhaps it was over recommended in the earlier days and people have been reluctant to step away from their earlier forecasts.

You might get lucky, depending on when you bought, but my gut says not.

I quite understand the emotional side, but It's best to keep the two things apart. I've never done well when I haven't.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Thu 30 Sep 21 at 21:52
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
I steer clear of Pharma self-reporting for any real factual information.

Billions spaffed on Tamiflu and Relenza stockpiles based on Pharma study data - the reality is the stuff is crap.

www.cochrane.org/news/tamiflu-and-relenza-getting-full-evidence-picture

Of course despite the crappiness the companies have made a fortune - that's what happens when you give the purse strings to politicians.

In case anyone hasn't heard of Cochrane they are independent analysts of study data - www.cochrane.org/about-us
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 1 Oct 21 at 00:03
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Manatee
I think part of the problem is the studies they don't publish, which could be most of them.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
Again, always wary of such studies but this is where the money comes from: give everyone meds as soon as they test positive even if most will get better anyway....

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58764440
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
This obv hasn't helped any of the other Covid drug companies - even the vax ones have taken a bit of a hit today. Synairgen is down another 10%.

A minor, picky issue no doubt but it has been pointed out elsewhere that this is based on Merck's own press release and not one from an "official" source!
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
Absolutely - similar stories for remdesivir that Trump spaffed out on for the US.

Once looked at independently....

Requesting emergency FDA approval always smacks to me of trying to make the money fast before it turns out your product is cack.

www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD014962/full
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 1 Oct 21 at 16:45
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
The Merck drug is getting some bad press already (alongside lots of good press). This article from July in the Journal of Infectious Diseases details why but it's a bit technical. Bottom line is a warning that it may mutate host DNA cells, which would be extremely undesirable. It isn't the only paper to draw that conclusion.

academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiab363/6320086


Also some chit chat about the selection of their candidates for the trials - much higher %age of serious cases in the placebo group than in any other trial - 14% v. 3%.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 1 Oct 21 at 23:42
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
I post this really to show others that there are many other sgtrands than the vaccines under investigation, but obviously I'm pleased to see Synairgen is up there with them :-)

theaseanpost.com/article/covid-treatments-potential-game-changers

and I read that the Merck phase 3 trial excluded pregnant women (which is fairly normal), also woman of child birthing potential, and men were not allowed sex for duration of the trial.
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 2 Oct 21 at 18:35
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
Synairgen expected to leap tomorrow on strong indications that they have progressed to Phase 3 in the US trials. They dropped to around £1.45 but £1.90 - £2 seems to be expected tomorrow, maybe much more. The informing data became available after markets closed here.

Fingers crossed.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
My brother suggests Hipgnosis (who own/buy rights to music and use the income to pay a dividend) are going to be a decent cash cow investment.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Manatee
>>a decent cash cow investment.

On these lines I have a moderate amount of HICL Infrastructure, an investment trust company that invests in "infrastructure" so hopefully I am making money out of PFI, the only way I can see any good coming of it.

The price doesn't move much in the great scheme but it yields a steady 5% currently, which I have been reinvesting.

I'm not sure this is a great time to make this sort of investment and I might chuck it - it isn't strictly fixed income but unless its dividends increase in an inflationary environment then I expect the price will suffer.

Inflation tends to move investors towards property and commodities. Consumer goods and technology are also said to benefit.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
>>Synairgen expected to leap tomorrow

Up 4.5% from 145p to 151.6p as of time of posting.

 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
... and all with no announcement yet :-)
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Lygonos
>>... and all with no announcement yet :-)

Pretty sure if you know about it, those "in the know" know about it ;-)
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
I expect you are right but this is a double blind trial and only a very select group of people are seeing the results, and then only once it is nearing completion.

There is a lot of sleuthing going on by some good "researchers" though and they are finding all kinds of clues, some of which turn out to be red herrings but others turn out to be extremely good, like the latest, which is that the NIH trial protocol has been re-written to include some very specific stuff on on the specific drug in Phase 3. The draft was found a few days back and what looks like the issued version yesterday, though release of this version hasn't yet been announced. It is now, however, "in the wild" as it's been linked to from an open forum.

So although the company are likely to have known about that being released at some point, the punters and institutional investors (and the market makers) may be a few days behind on that specific document. There is an expectation of a much larger jump when progression to Phase 3 announced, which must be imminent. It's always good to be ahead of the game!!
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - No FM2R
>>... and all with no announcement yet :-)

Perhaps just driven by the chat.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
Absolutely, people "topping up" on the expectation of good news will have increased demand to buy over a short period.. :-)

It may well drop back tomorrow... you know that's how it works... but a mate made nearly 6% earlier on a little flutter - in and out at the right time.

The science is sound though, in favour of interferons, IMO, and it seems to be a good investment to me, longer term. I don't day trade much now so this is a long term hold for me (at least next spring anyway, once all the trials are over).
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
Synairgen have announced progression to phase 3 this morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see 40% or more on the share price today. Closed at about £1.47 last night I think
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 20 Oct 21 at 07:54
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - No FM2R
Well, I have my doubts but good luck to you. Out of interest, and nosiness, is it your intention to sell if it should go up by 40%?
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
No, I'm hanging on for the multi-bagger :-)

Still got finalisation of their own phase 3 UK trial then early next year completion of the US one to go.

What gives rise to your doubts? The product, or it's application, or it's potential value? Or ANO?
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - No FM2R
>>What gives rise to your doubts?

Since it's just gone up 15% I might stay quiet.

But I think it's subject to too much speculation and manipulation to be a good long term bet.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
Surely the value is based on the product, it's not like it's some imaginary crypto or faddy food or fashion product.

Any successful drugs often bring multiples to share prices of small biotechs, often preceding a buy out or royalty agreement with a major pharma if successfully navigating the phases.

Interferon seems to have a lot of support in the research community as a useful tool to fight many problems, particularly respiratory ones, and it's part of the body's natural immune defence system.

This bunch have been researching and developing orally administered interferon for years, having been spun off by Southampton Uni, and were targeting the COPD arena till COVID showed up. They have already run some successful (albeit small) trials which were well received by the scientists.

Since COVID came along there have been numerous studies which support interferon as a therapeutic, but it is Synairgen;s patented delivery mechanism (via nebuliser, straight to the lungs) which seems to be the differentiator - there was a study yesterday into injected interferon which didn't have good results.

See, I'm brainwashed :-)

What is odd is that a few weeks ago the SP went up to £1.90 in minutes on a rumour that it had progressed to P3, which obviously turned out to be untrue. It was a "mis-speak" by a US doc who is very involved with the different trials and soon dropped back again. Today on the real news, it hasn't gone up so much. But that's possibly because the US markets were open when he spoke, and they aren't now. It is, after all, progression on a US funded trial. Synairgen have their own separate trial reporting before year-end.

Lastly more drugs have failed at phase 2 of the US trials than have progressed, many of which have soaked up a large number of participants. I believe it is the only inhaled drug remaining, which has an appeal to the healthcare industry as it can be self administered.

www.nih.gov/research-training/medical-research-initiatives/activ/covid-19-therapeutics-prioritized-testing-clinical-trials
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - sooty123
>> Surely the value is based on the product, it's not like it's some imaginary crypto
>> or faddy food or fashion product.

Same thing for all to my mind, what's it's worth to someone? Doesn't matter if it's a drug or crypto or faddy food or...
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - No FM2R
No, not really.

Share prices are based upon supply/demand. And that depends on what people think the share price is going to do. Value of the company or product is only part, and a small part at that.

If a share price is 5, and I think it will be 15 next week, then I will pay upto 10 to get it.

Many people think money is made from buying shares that increase in value thus increasing the amount of money you have. What's known as a real estate sale.

In fact the real money is made by predicting what the price is going to do and getting ahead of the curve, irrespective of how valid a change that is.

It doesn't matter if the price goes up or down, the *only* time when money is not made is when the price does not change.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
In your real estate sale - presumably people only buy shares that they predict will increase in value - which is what your "In fact the real money.." says, isn't it? (Ignoring shorting for now...).

In many companies the share price is based on the overall value of the business which includes, to a large extent, the perceived value of its product line and other assets like property, pension funds, cash piles, intellectual property etc etc. In the case of a new company, its potential revenues and profits are projected from the anticipated costs and margins of its product line, and often include various assumptions about market penetration, costs and margin, time to market, likely demand etc etc.

In the event of a novel approach like Synairgens, the signs all points towards a successful drug which will have a use for COVID but also potentially for other major illnesses like COPD and even flu, putting it in a potentially massive market. Your level of belief in that future will determine your willingness to invest.

I find it hard to put an actual value on it but there are some much smarter people who have called it as many multiples of the current price. Highest reasonable one (from a broker) is £50 a share but looking how the pharma industry has splashed the cash previously on drugs (not all of which have been successful btw) I think more like £20 - £25 a share equivalent longer term but I'll probably bail out at around £15, or maybe less as there's only so many Teslas a man can own LOL. I reckon it could be there by about Feb or March if the trials go well.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - Manatee
>> >> Surely the value is based on the product, it's not like it's some imaginary
>> crypto
>> >> or faddy food or fashion product.
>>
>> Same thing for all to my mind, what's it's worth to someone? Doesn't matter if
>> it's a drug or crypto or faddy food or...

If you think of it as the right to future cash flows then to me there is a difference between things with some value underpin and things that people for some unaccountable reason just want. Not to say that the latter are worthless, just subject to very high volatility in response to changes in taste, and of course 'confidence'.

The oddity for me is gold, which is valued beyond its 'industrial' worth but is usually a refuge in times of uncertainty. One of my long term actively managed fund holdings is Troy Trojan, which is holding around 6% of the fund in bullion at the moment.
 Sainsbo's next for buy-out? - smokie
And here is the CEO in an interview about today's news. To be fair, the rather fragrant Katie and her company are, I believe, paid advisers to the company .

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/963747/synairgen--delighted--to-get-green-light-for-us-government-sponsored-phase-iii-trials-starting-soon-963747.html
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