What's the weather going to be today, Jim?
Down in leafy Surrey we were forecast (BBC) to have heavy snow showers at 1a.m. this morning. I checked with my new Google Nest (Christmas present) several times, she was was quite adamant that there would be no snow.
The Google woman was right, I staggered bleary eyed to the window, after making tea, of course, at the crack of 6.30 and snow was there none!
Will I ever see snow again?
Have you had snow?
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No snow, just a fair bit of frost.
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As I'm never known for answering the question, you may (but probably won't) find it interesting to know that, I believe, Google gets its weather via Weather Underground, and THAT uses "over 250000" PWS, as well as official weather stations.
PWS is "personal weather stations", which I think is beardy men in glasses who have a thermometer etc. set up to talk their wifi and pass it all back to Weather Underground.
So if such a character lives within a mile or two of you (and in the UK he probably does) then you are getting predictions from his garden conditions. Which is why Google can usually be very accurate about your weather at your precise location.
The BBC, of course, have to do a general forecast for an area. The best of which I heard was John Humphrey's "And now today's weather. If it's not raining, it will be".
And if you knew all that, sorry for wasting your time.
www.wunderground.com/pws/overview
No snow here. Oh, I did answer the question after all.
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Interesting, I'll have to have a look to see if I can put this in my Home Assistant... :-)
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My first day after isolation yesterday and a longish low level walk with friends off the beaten track in southern lakeland. It never got above freezing in the shade. Snow on the high fells, and friends posted photos of walking in snow on Pendle Hill in Lancs ( which you can see from my garden).
I’m pretty sure the snow isn’t very deep....
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I use Windows for weather. I have one in every room.
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I've found quite a difference between the BBC weather forecast and the Met Office one since they parted company.
Have both apps on my phone so take a rough average between the two, at least now they are taking measurements directly from down the road at the airport so I'm hoping that should be accurate.
Obviously incoming weather forecasting is still a bit of an variable interpretation of the data.
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There is a weather Underground app if you want to try that for comparison, RD.
If you have Alexa, then the skill Bigsky does a very similar thing and it, in my experience, is pretty darn good at the local weather virtually down to the exact minute the rain is going to start over your house. Spooky sometimes.
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I have snow here in Lanarkshire. First showed couple of days ago but temperatures have struggled to get above freezing. And it has been snowing again this morning. All of which was predicted on the Met Office app.
Yesterday I took the dog up to Whitelees wind Farm. 8 mile walk in compacted snow. Place was heaving with walkers, mountain bikers , fat bike-ers and kids on sledges. Was a great few hours.
www.whiteleewindfarm.co.uk/
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>> There is a weather Underground app if you want to try that for comparison, RD.
>>
>> If you have Alexa, then the skill Bigsky does a very similar thing and it,
>> in my experience, is pretty darn good at the local weather virtually down to the
>> exact minute the rain is going to start over your house. Spooky sometimes.
Ill give that a whirl. I hope you wont be responsible for adding to my irrational annoyance and agitation.
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>> Ill give that a whirl. I hope you wont be responsible for adding to my
>> irrational annoyance and agitation.
I've only used the free version; offers enough for me, especially if you ask for the detailed forecast.
"Alexa, ask bigsky if it will rain/snow/be sunny/be windy today/tomorrow" is all I really need
The paid for one does things like multiple named locations, so "will it rain at the caravan today", that kind of thing.
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>"Alexa, ask bigsky if it will rain/snow/be sunny/be windy today/tomorrow"
Alexa - "Why? Where the £%^ do you think you're going?"
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>>Interesting, I'll have to have a look to see if I can put this in my Home Assistant... :-)
Ach, then you just get into the bothers I have.
In 2014 when such things were new and exciting to me, for reasons that now elude me I set up a system that grabbed from somewhere or other the local weather, everything from rainfall to humidity and so on. Then it wrote one line into a Google spreadsheet.
On doing some tidying last week I found it, still updating quietly every day. I now have a spreadsheet with six years worth of such data in about fifteen neat columns, and of course what am I gong to do with it?
So you get drawn into the rabbit hole of whether to make some pretty graphs, or other visualisations, and then wanting to do that with some software, and then thinking about some sort of server to do that even better so then you can...etc etc.
Fatal and pointless.
Last edited by: Crankcase on Thu 31 Dec 20 at 14:41
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I'm well down that path already.
I have 7 years data of how much energy my solar panels have produced each day, on a spreadsheet which does some quite neat colouring-in to compare daily and monthly production year on year. For most days I have the half hourly production figures too.
I now have a little over 2 years of half hourly data on my electricity consumption, and daily gas consumption. I've yet to get round to mapping electricity usage against solar production. (I'm joking but it's do-able!).
I have the daily value every day of various investments, and for some I have the value of each element of the portfolio as well as the aggregate.
I've got all fuel bills, broken down into gas and electricity, for about 6 years or more.
I have four months of photos of my back garden to make a time-lapse film in 8 months time (you were going to investigate that one too IIRC!!).
I'm sure there's more but I'm too busy trying to rebuild my Home Assistant to think about it! :-)
Last edited by: smokie on Thu 31 Dec 20 at 16:29
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>I'm sure there's more but I'm too busy trying to rebuild my Home Assistant to think about it!
Can't you delegate that to err, an assistant?
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>> >I'm sure there's more but I'm too busy trying to rebuild my Home Assistant to
>> think about it!
>>
>> Can't you delegate that to err, an assistant?
AI in the home is on its way. Sit back and let someone something sort it out for you.
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 31 Dec 20 at 17:46
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>> I'm well down that path already.
>>
>> I have 7 years data...
Time for some of this then:
tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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>> Have you had snow?
No
I have become increasingly annoyed and agitated* over the lack of accuracy of the BBC weather forecast. It is, in recent experience, rarely accurate, nay, often damn near misleading. I have to say some of the other forecasts are just as bad.
*Its spoiling the karma of my morning meditation.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 1 Jan 21 at 03:22
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I use accuweather which comes with the phone. It seems fine to me, although I can't say I look at it too often as I don't need a mega accurate forecast.
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How does the Google woman know the address of my principal UK residence? I didn't tell her?
Was it one of you lot?
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>>How does the Google woman know the address of my principal UK residence?
Hmm. If you haven't already been horrified, have a look at your Google Dashboard. Gives you something to ponder.
myaccount.google.com/dashboard?hl=en
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No snow here. We had a sprinkling on Christmas Eve morning.
I have the Met Office app on my phone; it looks as if they give out weather predictions for the worst possible case with little to do with reality. Their weather warnings are also mostly unreliable, including the "Some injuries from slips and falls on icy surfaces" direct from the Nanny State which has nothing to do with weather and really winds me up.
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Probably the same people who do the message boards on the motorways.
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Heavy snow showers predicted 9am-1pm for me (Central Scotland, low level) - few flakes fell at 8am as I arrived at work but nothing of note since.
I think it will rain later rather than snow, and just checking bbc weather they suggest the same - temperature right around freezing/1ºC so likely hard to predict if the water falls as liquid or solid.
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>> No snow here. We had a sprinkling on Christmas Eve morning.
>>
>> I have the Met Office app on my phone; it looks as if they give
>> out weather predictions for the worst possible case with little to do with reality.
Dumped it off my phone, Useless waste of bytes. I used to like "dark skies" but they went Apple only.
I now use ClimaCel on the phone for short range "ok to walk the dog" weather reports.
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The weather forecast here is broadly accurate for about 6 months and very accurate for about a month and spot on for about 2 weeks.
Ironically therefore of very little use.
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Had a brief flurry of snow on Tuesday but nothing since. More was forecast per the BBC but now just effin cold.
Already freezing.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 31 Dec 20 at 17:39
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Weather forecasts need data, supercomputers and world class scientists to create complex weather models. They are not affordable by the private sector.
There are around half a dozen premier league government funded weather services including UK, US, Germany + European collaborations. Private weather companies, of which Meteogroup who do the BBC are one, need weather model output to provide a service fit for a user.
The UK are rated comfortably in the top 3 met services globally. For the UK I would expect them to produce the most accurate model output. US and German data is likely to be lower resolution.
Perceived differences in forecast accuracy probably have more to do with the user interface, the way the data is processed to produce imagery, and the language used to descriibe future weather.
It is probably the case that the UK Met Office is concerned with precision in its output. Private weather companies may be more concerned to flex their output to meet customer expectations - accuracy may be lower priority than the graphics, presentation or price.
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The BBC forecast for today said rain at 14:00 - it's just started.
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We were out for a walk and watched the rain approach from the West bang on 14.00 hrs.
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BBC forecast cloud but low % chance of rain here. It rained. Surprised I were not, but I had hoped to play with my new toy I bought myself - chain saw.
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....Brexmas chain saw massacre.....?
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>Weather forecasts need data, supercomputers and world class scientists to
>create complex weather models. They are not affordable by the private sector.
I run a weather model on an old Raspberry Pi. So far this year it has been 100% accurate.
#include /usr/include/weather.h
main()
{
weather(tomorrow) = weather(today);
printf("Tomorrow's forecast is %sn", weather(tomorrow));
}
Last edited by: Kevin on Fri 1 Jan 21 at 22:42
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>> I run a weather model on an old Raspberry Pi. So far this year it
>> has been 100% accurate.
>>
I have a client that spends £10ks on a weather prediction service annually.
Perhaps I should point them in your direction for a consultancy :-)
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Well, you can tell them that I spent over 10yrs as a consultant to the High Performance Computing and Data Storage section at what is currently the best Weather Forecast organisation on the planet.
I'm not cheap tho'.
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>> Well, you can tell them that I spent over 10yrs as a consultant to the
>> High Performance Computing and Data Storage section at what is currently the best Weather Forecast
>> organisation on the planet.
>>
>> I'm not cheap tho'.
Dont expect a forecast out of them on Monday Wednesday or Friday afternoons tho.
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Does anyone know if there is in fact a technical difference between such terms as "sunny intervals" and "intermittent clouds", or "occasional showers" and "raining sporadically", for example? Or is it said just to make it a bit more interesting?
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>Or is it said just to make it a bit more interesting?
It's done to make it understandable to Joe Public because most folks wouldn't have a clue what they were talking about if it was presented in meteo terms. To also make it 'interesting' is the difficult part. I have recorded hours and hours of Lucy Verasamy (just to learn her technique you understand.)
Much of the output from post-processing of model data is expressed as a 'probability' ie - There's a 90% probability that cloud cover over Basingstoke between 7am and 9am tomorrow will be 70% cumulonimbus. Of that 90% probability there's an 80% probability that there will be some precipitation but also a 20% probability that there will not be any precip' and a 10% probability any precip' will be sleet or snow. Of course when they say 'Basingstoke' they mean a grid rectangle containing Basingstoke and, at present, that grid resolution can be anywhere from 6km to 55km depending on the model. So, the forecast can turn out to be absolutely spot-on in Basingstoke but completely wrong for somewhere 5 miles away in the same grid rectangle due to localised effects.
Governments (and some businesses) don't give a damn tho' if it's going to be scattered showers in Basingstoke. What they are interested in is accurate early warning of extreme weather events that could threaten lives or cause financial loss and that's why they are prepared to pay megabucks to improve forecasting. NOAA got brand new toys after Hurricane Sandy caused $70B in damage and killed 200 people because their forecast was completely wrong. The only model that predicted it turning back west to hit the US was the Euro model. Much embarassment and searching for scapegoats followed.
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Thanks Kevin, that was interesting. Though I've never heard of Lucy Verasamy.
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Interestingly (for some) is that CV-19 could have an effect on the accuracy of some weather forecasts.
www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts
It doesn't mention bias correction in that article but they also feed a bias correction into some observations. A story I heard years ago at the place I was working was that they were baffled by a consistent difference between the model forecast and reported observations at a location in eastern Europe. They later discovered that the observations were being taken by a little old guy who wasn't quite tall enough to read some of the instruments without a bit of parallax error. I still don't know if they were pulling my leg.
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I'm trying ClimaCel and getting some weird results. It told me the snow would stop in four hours, when I haven'e seen snow since early last year. Similar with rain.
Perhaps there's not many beardy nerds near me.
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I tried using big sky on Alexa as recommended on here by some beardy nerd. At some point Alexa misheard me, and big sky has been giving me weather reports for Baden Baden for the last three days.
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A very significant place for a motorcyclist. Its he start and end of the B500 :)
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>>
>> At some point Alexa misheard me,
>>
....baden?
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Current BBC forecast land of fantasy for my location now - Snow 94% chance of
Reality? Sunny.
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Light snow and strong winds here exactly as forecast last night here. The sort of day you don’t mind lockdown.
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BBC was forecasting snow from after dark yesterday. Had a bit mid evening but very wet stuff that reverted to rain. All gone in an hour.
Was predicted to return overnight and for most of today. As of now nothing though there's a strong and chilling north easterly breeze. The can of snow has now been kicked down the road to around 13:00 then turning heavy later.
Met office says no snow until late afternoon and probably sporadic thereafter.
I guess that as the snow was predicated on a mixing of air masses of which timing and consequence are unpredictable it's not a surprise that the forecast keeps changing.
Upside is I can now get on a shopping mission for cut timber I need to finish installation of a loft ladder. Also opportunity to get a replacement peltier type chilled foodbox now Halfords have them back in stock. Previous one gave up the ghost in a French heatwave last summer.
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I'm trying Climacell and am getting messages about snow too. "Snow will stop in 50 minutes", but what snow? Rain; quite accurate so far.
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We were forecast solid rain or snow the whole weekend, nothing yet, just wind like a knife from the NE gusting to 35mph and howling.
I shall keep my neb indoors today.
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Current BBC forecast for my location. Light Snow 100% probability for this hour. . Real world? Light cloud & Sunny periods.
I wouldn't mind but they have had 7 hours of daylight to see the forecast is rubbish through the met office windows.
The more money and tech thrown at the weather, the worse the forecast.
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I shall think of you all. I'm about to head off to the pub to watch Wales Ireland while sitting on the sunny patio.
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I wouldn't mind but they have had 7 hours of daylight to see the forecast is rubbish through the met office windows.
>>
I was under the impression that the BBC use the MeteoGroup rather than the Met Office.
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>> I was under the impression that the BBC use the MeteoGroup rather than the Met
>> Office.
The Met Office lost the contract for BBC Weather a few years ago. The Shipping Forecast is still Met Office as that's for the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
Just got back from my planned shopping trip which took me to Homebase. The only local branch now is on the east side of Northampton where the wind whips off the fens. Car told me the outside temperature was 2 Celcius but the wind went straight through my bomber jacket.
Just got the wood I needed. Wasn't venturing further down the site to HAlfords.
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It's been fine snow overnight here on the top of the North Downs, went out to see how the roads were ready for the morning as all three of my household leave at 6.30, looked ok, the tarmac was black, unfortunately since midday it's been coming down heavier and we now have about 4-5cm snow with more expected overnight and temperatures dropping.
I hate it... knowing I'm relied upon to get into work and yet two or three miles down the road and the weather conditions will be totally different.
Again I hate it... I used to quite ok about driving in the snow but now I'm more worried about potentially getting stuck and parking up only to come back to your car and find someone has pranged it.
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I was once really caught out by snow. I was about three or four miles from home, having left early due to heavy snow forecast. It was coming down pretty heavily. A mate who worked and lived near me had also left and was about half a mile behind me.
At Bracknell the main toad to Wokingham looked chokka so I thought I'd go off round the town which is about the same distance. my mate stayed on the slow-looking main road.
It took me nearly 8 hours to do this 3 miles, although mainly at a standstill. A hill which you wouldn't even normally notice when driving suddenly became almost impassable - people were getting had way up and sliding backwards. Cars abandoned everywhere, it was utter chaos!
Oh how my mate laughed...took him about 10 minutes from where we parted ways.
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Many years (decades?) ago, I tried to drive to a mate, spent some time pushing the cars in front of me over the hump, only to find there was no-one behind to push me. Tried a couple of other routes, then gave up and went to a pub.
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Weather - sooty123
