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Ongoing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 20:29
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Standard quality of BBC sensationalism I am afraid, but pretty nonetheless concerning.
"Covid-19: Concern at 'unprecedented' infection level in England"
&
"It is thought the infection rate was much higher during the first peak in April"
www.bbc.com/news/uk-55462701
Though it doesn't appear to have become more lethal, so every cloud.
You'd expect the vaccine to make a noticeable difference pretty quickly. At least, I would.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 28 Dec 20 at 19:31
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I agree.
90%+ deaths are in the over 65 and vulnerable groups and create the load on the NHS in admissions, then ICU, and finally deaths.
Approx 25% of the population are in these groups - ~ 15m.
Assuming there are adequate vaccine supplies, and people are vaccinated at a rate of (say) 5m per week, vaccination of these groups should be complete by early April. Add a few weeks on for 2nd jabs takes to the end of April.
Crudely the load on the NHS will fall by ~ 50% by end February, and 90%+ by end April. The next six weeks will be critical in minimising virus spread to avoid overwhelming NHS short term.
By end Feb a progessive relaxation of restrictions should be possible. By April there will be little need to protect the NHS although the virus will still be in circulation. There will be almost zero prospect of retaining covid restrictions - they would likely be ignored and uneforceable.
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The flaw in your figures, Terry, is a large number of the frailest don't get anywhere near a hospital bed, let alone ICU.
"Younger" patients can take a lot longer to die/recover/rehabilitate once they are in hospital.
(by which I mean the 45-65 age group)
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Also 5m vaccinations a week seems a big ask and in my mind throws your dateline into jeopardy. I've not seen it suggested that they can cope with that many. I've seen articles saying something like "if they could get to 2m a week".
Having said that they are ramping up enormously and I guess if the Oxford vaccine becomes available then the main obstacle will be the sheer logistics of it.
Still, I like your plan.
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Most estimates seem to be in the 1-2m per week once the system gets up to capacity.
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We are currently running at 41,000 new cases per day. It is entirely possible that that number could double by the end of the month. The NHS is teetering on the edge. I heard on the radio this morning that the NHS is starting to dismantle Nightingale hospitals because there is insufficient staff. It’s going to get a lot lot worse before it gets better.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Tue 29 Dec 20 at 10:19
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I think most of the Nightingale hospitals had already been closed or repurposed several months ago. The only two I thought still open or in use are the ones in London and Bristol.
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>> I think most of the Nightingale hospitals had already been closed or repurposed several months
>> ago. The only two I thought still open or in use are the ones in
>> London and Bristol.
I thought I'd seen mention of the one in Harrogate being used but possibly for non Covid patients but the problem is the one that was evident from when they were first announced - where do the staff come from?
The Welsh equivalent, which I think are called Rainbow hospitals, are certainly in use; mainly for rehab. My daughter's father in law, a retired GP, is doing shifts in one of them.
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I thought I'd seen mention of the one in Harrogate being used but possibly for
>> non Covid patients but the problem is the one that was evident from when they
>> were first announced - where do the staff come from?
I thought I'd seen that it had been turned into a testing centre and has been identified as a vaccination centre.
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London (excel) nightingale is non functioning, having been partially stripped out. They found they couldn't staff it.
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It says 'ere that London Nightingale is on standby
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55469188
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Well you are gonna die on your own then, and your body is gonna decompose pretty quickly, most of the mortuary temperate control has been taken out and used elsewhere to support the vaccine roll out.
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Looks like they have changed their mind as the situation becomes fairly desperate.
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/covid-nightingale-hospital-london-b594985.html
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>> Assuming there are adequate vaccine supplies, and people are vaccinated at a rate of (say)
>> 5m per week, vaccination of these groups should be complete by early April. Add a
>> few weeks on for 2nd jabs takes to the end of April.
As others have already said 5million is likely to be unattainable; more like 2 million. Vaccine may also be a problem. Although the Oxford and Modena versions are now coming on line I've seen reports that supplies of the Pfizer product are tight going into next month. Not sufficient to go around and other countries were ahead of us ordering for Jan/Feb delivery.
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As others have already said 5million is likely to be unattainable; more like 2 million.
>> Vaccine may also be a problem. Although the Oxford and Modena versions are now coming
>> on line I've seen reports that supplies of the Pfizer product are tight going into
>> next month. Not sufficient to go around and other countries were ahead of us ordering
>> for Jan/Feb delivery.
>>
Somewhere around half of expected deliveries of the Pfizer vaccine in the tail end of this month and next. Production issues I believe, whether that means they'll be a shortage in the sense that there's people to vaccinate and the capacity to do so but no vaccine I don't know.
Although rumours are the Oxford vaccine could be given the go ahead between now and the end of the month, how true that is is anyone's guess.
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The median age at death either involving or due to COVID 19 has been given by ONS as 83. The mean is 80.3/80.4 for involving/due to.
Men only about 2 years lower, women only about 2 years higher.
The mean is very close to (c. 1 yr. lower) the statistic for age at death from all causes. I'm not quite sure how to interpret that.
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Apparently a hospital in Brighton had spare vaccine doses which had to be used and offered them to paramedics.
The local ambulance service told the paramedics not to accept the vaccine, citing protocols had to be followed.
Surely this has nothing to to the employer?
I would have thought paramedics would need the vaccine as a safeguard before many others considering their potential regular exposure?
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 29 Dec 20 at 13:44
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Infact anyone who has enforced close contact random exposure to the public.
Last edited by: Fullchat on Tue 29 Dec 20 at 14:21
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>> Infact anyone who has enforced close contact random exposure to the public.
>>
I'd be happy for shop workers, paramedics, beat cops, hospital staff, care home and transport staff to get it before me as long as I am safe working from home.
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>>The local ambulance service told the paramedics not to accept the vaccine, citing protocols had to be followed.
In which case I assume that the vaccine doses were wasted and some dick at the Ambulance Service will be getting a slap.
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>> >>The local ambulance service told the paramedics not to accept the vaccine, citing protocols had
>> to be followed.
>>
>> In which case I assume that the vaccine doses were wasted and some dick at
>> the Ambulance Service will be getting a slap.
Unlikely, vaccination is a two part process and requires some degree of planning for emergency staff. What do you do when you have two crew working together and one dose left, vaccinate one and not the other? Any idea when/if they can come back and get the second dose, and where?
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I assume that all vaccines are assigned to a location in pairs, so each dose would have had its pair planned.
>>when you have two crew working together and one dose left, vaccinate one and not the other?
Yes. How is vaccinating neither better?
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>> I assume that all vaccines are assigned to a location in pairs, so each dose
>> would have had its pair planned.
>>
>> >>when you have two crew working together and one dose left, vaccinate one and not
>> the other?
>>
>> Yes. How is vaccinating neither better?
>>
I have been told that the procedure is that if you have one jab, the next is booked for you.
Even one dose offers partial cover so is better than none.
It shouldn't be too difficult to arrange a revisit to the hospital within the set time period.
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>>
>> It shouldn't be too difficult to arrange a revisit to the hospital within the set
>> time period.
>>
You’ve not experienced the NHS’s inability and unwillingness to organise something when it’s outside the norm have you. I imagine if you weren’t scheduled to have the first dose then the computer will say no when you try and book the second. And no one will want to override the system...
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Miss Z was working today. She was allowed to see only one patient with diminished immunity; a very ill person who did not have Covid. To keep the patient safe she was not allowed to see anyone else.
The hospital is otherwise swamped as is the wider Trust with junior doctors being moved all over to cover gaps.
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Question -
Do you give everybody possible the first jab in the hope that a 2nd will be delivered as scheduled.
Or do you hold one jab back for every one you use so that a second is guaranteed
Consequences - the latter slows up the vaccination process compared to the former!
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I know Tony Blair said that the first one alone will give protection but I didn't used to trust him and I'm not changing that now.
Have the experts agreed with him yet, and surely he can't have been the first to think of it?
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I’m sure Tony thought he was helping the push for acceptance of vaccination, but he’s not qualified to say nor has it been tested that one dose works. So no one qualified has. One out to support his ramblings. Also, his reputation is toxic.. So he’s probably set the cause back, not helped, by speaking out..!!
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> Also, his reputation is toxic..
On both sides of the political divide.
Despite some very strong competition this year, C4P Understatement of the Year goes to Peter.
Voting for other categories still open!
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In a local rag tonight was news that a 30th birthday party was interrupted by the police after being discovered by local PCSO. No arrests made. No fines. They were ‘persuaded’ to disperse. FFS.
I don’t give a rats ass if they die. But I do strongly object to such idiots receiving any medical attention and using stretched NHS resources if that particular party proved to be the source of infection.
In Spain curfews are in place, which folks adhere to. I was stopped 3x in two weeks at road blocks manned by the Guardia Civil. On each occasion there were 5 personnel. This was early evening, and I had nothing to fear, but it illustrates the amount of manpower they have to enforce the curfew and find miscreants, whether by design or not.
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A bar near to my sister's place in Spain hosted a wake for an expat DJ who'd died after a long illness. Despite the restrictions they'd gone ahead with it for about 20 people and thought they'd got away with it until the Guardia turned up two days later and handed the bar owner a 6000€ fine.
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>> I know Tony Blair said that the first one alone will give protection but I
>> didn't used to trust him and I'm not changing that now.
>> Have the experts agreed with him yet, and surely he can't have been the first
>> to think of it?
I have seen something (forget where) that suggests one injection giving 50% protection to 2x would be more effective to the overall population than two injections giving 90 odd % to x.
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It can increase transmission, 1/2 vaccinated people act in a riskier manner.
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As I've mention the vaccination process is not a quick one... part of the process was the booking of my second jab in 21 days (for me Jan 20th at 8am) onto a general NHS database to track who and where the dose have been given (remember you should have your second jab in the same location as your first).
I'd love to think that my predetermined 'twin' dose was sitting somewhere in a freezer waiting for me but I have a feeling on the day I'll receive the next dose sitting in the tray.
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My local hospital, hitherto able to cope, has gone critical. Last spare ICU bed filled last night, shortage of oxygen.
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I'm surprised to hear that, BOC have been flat out producing oxygen and all non medical customers have been restricted in how much they can order since March.
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I suspect there are a lot of companies which are busy doing stuff we don't even think about, and who are prioritised on COVID stuff. That's why it is so important to get the vaccine out quickly - it isn't just the hospitals that are at breaking point, failings in others parts of the infrastructure could easily cause the whole house of cards to collapse - say for instance the people who supply the containers for the oxygen had a massive COVID hit on their workers...
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say for instance the people who supply the containers
>> for the oxygen had a massive COVID hit on their workers...
>>
You mean the cylinders?
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Probably, yes, though it might come in other sizes? I wasn't thinking about the detail just the principle.
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>> Probably, yes, though it might come in other sizes? I wasn't thinking about the detail
>> just the principle.
At Northampton General and no doubt other big hospitals it's held in bulk and delivered by tanker.
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The hospital in question has large external tanks, BOC, and is piped around the hospital. The information came second hand, but a reliable connected chain. The Hospital has 8 ICU beds and 12 HDU beds. All are now full.
The oxygen thing may well be the inability to pump enough hi-flo oxygen or it may be a temporary "low remaining level" thing. It is however a reliable account of how a previously well managed hospital that was able to cope, has quickly become "full"
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>> Probably, yes, though it might come in other sizes? I wasn't thinking about the detail
>> just the principle.
They come in different sizes reuseable cylinders yes, however the vast bulk of industrial/ commercial deliveries are pretty much the same size cylinder.
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Tell you what, let's change my example to petrol tanker drivers, or supermarket checkout staff, or 2 pint milk containers shall we? Anything but a discussion on oxygen cylinder sizes!! :-)
My point, long lost now, was more about the likelihood that there are more "key" workers/industries/products than immediately meets the eye, all of whom will be concentrating efforts on COVID at the expense of other business.
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Haha never forget I have the ability to lock a thread, and ban users!! LOL
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>> Tell you what, let's change my example to petrol tanker drivers, or supermarket checkout staff,
>> or 2 pint milk containers shall we? Anything but a discussion on oxygen cylinder sizes!!
>> :-)
>
At least its one discussion that hasn't been done on here before ;-)
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>>
>> At least its one discussion that hasn't been done on here before ;-)
>>
Yes, it’s like a breath of fresh air.
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>> My point, long lost now, was more about the likelihood that there are more "key"
>> workers/industries/products than immediately meets the eye, all of whom will be concentrating efforts on COVID
>> at the expense of other business.
>>
For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
-Anon
(Who was this Anon bloke and why did he come up with so many good sayings?)
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>> I suspect there are a lot of companies which are busy doing stuff we don't
>> even think about, and who are prioritised on COVID stuff.
I can't mention their name because it's a well known brand. They have been selling their normal product in shed loads since the pandemic as the market has increased.
However, it's all warehouse stock because they were able to switch production to products needed for the pandemic (medical and cleaning).
It will impact their brand as they run short of their branded products but they believe it's the right thing to do.
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I find this odd too..
Several reporters seem to be implying that Trusts are short of oxygen whereas I suspect they might mean a shortage in the ability to delivery enough high-flow oxygen which is usually only available in critical-care and theatre environments.
Hearing these reports made me quite proud that my trust preplanned this and converted two of our regular wards a couple of months ago to be able to supply high-flow oxygen at the bedside (upgrade to wall mounted flow-meters and pipework), this has reduced the pressure on ITU.
We've been able to continue with a much reduced schedule of elective lists by creating our 'elective centre' which has been described as a 'hospital within a hospital, currently our limiting factor is staffing, once a certain number are diverted to cv19 care then our electives will come down.
Several trusts have suffered with staffing since there was a push by Govt to roll out the lateral-flow tests to staff, you home test twice a week and register your results -ve or +ve, maybe not surprisingly this has lead to groups of staff now self isolating but without a constructive plan to replace them.
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>> I find this odd too..
>>
>> Several reporters seem to be implying that Trusts are short of oxygen whereas I suspect
>> they might mean a shortage in the ability to delivery enough high-flow oxygen which is
>> usually only available in critical-care and theatre environments.
I'd be surprised if it is that, that issue was known about by the higher ups early this year and by anyone that works with the stuff. If it is someone needs a big kick up the backside.
>>
>> Several trusts have suffered with staffing since there was a push by Govt to roll
>> out the lateral-flow tests to staff, you home test twice a week and register your
>> results -ve or +ve, maybe not surprisingly this has lead to groups of staff now
>> self isolating but without a constructive plan to replace them.
Are they the tests that aren't as accurate as lab tests?
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>> I'd be surprised if it is that, that issue was known about by the higher
>> ups early this year and by anyone that works with the stuff. If it is
>> someone needs a big kick up the backside.
Once the original peak was passed would such planning easily pass muster?
I cannot see headlines saying "NHS prepares for second peak" being popular with Ministers
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Yes exactly... each box has twelve weeks worth of tests and costs £2000 per box! (result in thirty minutes).
It's been pushed as a 'trial' but I wonder if each test is counted in the daily total, makes me wonder as it's the same test that's going to be given to pupils and yet we have it as a 'home' test whereas in schools it's become a massive issue with 'clean rooms' being setup and even the army I've heard.
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>> My local hospital, hitherto able to cope, has gone critical. Last spare ICU bed filled
>> last night, shortage of oxygen.
>>
>>
That's the only answer needed to to people who say it's all a hoax or the ones who think it should be let rip.
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Increasingly called the "British Variant" which I find as annoying as the "Chinese Virus".
Interestingly the first place I saw it called the "British Variant" was the BBC website despite US experts saying that it was probably simply detected by the UK first because of their studies.
Either way, it's here now.....
www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-chile/chile-records-first-case-of-british-variant-of-coronavirus-health-ministry-idUKKBN2931Q7
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Small beer next to 100 million deaths from "Spanish Flu".
Spain was neutral during WWI so best to blame them.
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France is deploying 10,000 police to stop the gathering of parties on NYE, and also to stop "The traditional torching of vehicles", according to the Guardian. Apparently nearly 1500 were burnt out on that night last year.
And we think we've got yob problems!
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Whilst in Spain recently I often returned, post walk, to the home of my French pals. He’s recently retired French Foreign Office.
The stories he told me about the French love of rioting, torching cars, Right wing, Left wing, yellow jackets who included both left and right and wanted totally different things.
Their only common ground was being anti establishment. Fascinating listening to his take on things.
Lots of stories about stuff I daren’t write on here.
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>> Lots of stories about stuff I daren’t write on here.
Why not? It's fairly easy to anonimise stuff.
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... and you've not even mentioned the farmers!
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Great. Just great. A new tier for where I live in the Dales. My second day out of isolation and I’d planned a mid afternoon meal, washed down with several proper pints, the first since early October, and now it’s not going to happen.
Mid afternoon in my very socially distanced and organised local, quiet before the evening diners arrive, log fire, belly pork, roasties, proper beer...such is life.
I should have stayed in Spain...RYR cancelled my January flights so fingers crossed Jet2 don’t cancel their first flight from LBA on 11th February. And Spain will allow me entry. If so I’ll be staying another ten weeks. Minimum.
Last edited by: legacylad on Thu 31 Dec 20 at 09:33
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You are in Tier 3 now I believe so count your blessings
The way it’s going you will be in Tier 4 shortly with no travel anywhere for anyone. Ah well there’s always Netflix
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Unless you can claim it's for business of course.... plenty of private jets still leaving on international flights from where I am in tier 4.... if you've got the cash then it's life as normal!
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Not really...even if I was a billionaire with a private jet I couldn’t get entry back into Spain without being a Spanish citizen or holding residencia. Hopefully that will change by February.
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Fortunately I live on the outskirts of Giggleswick, one mile across the Ribble from Settle. Wonderful walking country literally on my doorstep so as much fresh air and exercise as I can manage.
That makes me incredibly lucky in the circumstances, which I don’t take for granted. Time to dig out some thermals..
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Why have you never mentioned that before LOL
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Think I'm going to buy a turkey today. I've heard that they're going cheep now...
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I asked our butcher how long he thought our turkey would last in the freezer. "Oh, at least 6 months", he said.
He was wrong.............
...............it was dead in less than a couple of days. :-(
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Covid: Sweden official defends Christmas trip to Canary Islands
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55523587
Difficult. This and all the others.
We should be making our COVID decisions out of common sense, not because of what someone else does or does not do.
This is a man telling other people the rules to follow and then not following them himself.
The people objecting are largely objecting out of fear that somebody else might be having a better time than they are.
.******* [edit: can't remember what this bit said, but it did include a bad word]
There are circumstances under which I would travel to see a daughter irrespective of the law, common sense or the word of anybody.
I am supposed to be, right now, with my ailing Mother who struggles to remember me. And if I don't see her soon we might never have any final closure. So why can't I travel if he can? [of course, I actually can, but you know what I mean].
I think I just fundamentally don't like people.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 4 Jan 21 at 00:25
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I think if you set the rules you bally well ought to abide by them too.
Cummins was rightly derided for doing the same, but not punished adequately.
I followed the rules and didn't see my parents over Christmas. I hate the situation for it as do they but hopefully all will be well when they get the vaccine. I am glad I didn't put them at risk.
Anyone in Govt that broke the rules needs hounding out of office.
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In principle yes, but take each case on its merits. If you had an autistic son (as Cummins does) then you might take a different approach. Having got children with some mental health issues and one who is borderline autistic, I am more lenient on them in terms of isolating than if they were 'normal'.
The last thing we need now is dead children; either killed by parents who can't cope or by their own hand. That is what he might have been facing and I did almost face in April and July last year with one son. So cut Cummins some slack.
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,,, So cut Cummins some slack.
>>
Why should we? He seems to be notorious for taking a hardline attitude to other people.
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>>Why should we? He seems to be notorious for taking a hardline attitude to other people.
Because if you treat him no better than he treats others, how are you any better than him?
I think, though, a guideline is just that, a guideline. And guidelines can be outweighed by circumstances.
In this case Sweden is not in lockdown, people have been "urged to avoid" unneccessary travel, not banned from doing it, and not to make new contacts during a journey or at the destination.
But still people are baying for his job.
Why is absolutely anything we don't like reason for their dismissal? Why are we, as a crowd, almost terrified that someone may be getting some advantage or leeway that we're not?
Or are people not really like that and it's more sensationalist media dross?
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Boris is making an announcement at 8 pm.
Brace Yourselves!
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I’ve regular organised walks with friends Tuesdays and Thursdays. Max of 6 per walk...tier3. The thinking this afternoon is we won’t be walking for a while...and Jet2 cancelled my 11 February flight this afternoon.
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I think, unless I've got this wrong, that you'll still be able to do your walks LL, but maybe just with one other person. Failing that, borrow a dog !
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>> I think, unless I've got this wrong, that you'll still be able to do your
>> walks LL, but maybe just with one other person. Failing that, borrow a dog !
We're waiting to see if the one other person outdoors bit lasts beyond today. Hoping it will as meeting her Personal Trainer and getting an exercise session in the park is one of the things helping Mrs B stay sane.
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Is that what she says she's doing? Ok, fair enough, probably nothing to worry about.
;-)
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SWMBO has read somewhere today that BoJo is going to announce a month's total lockdown at 8:00. She reckons walking with anyone outside your own bubble will be a no-no
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We in Wales are on one already. Total lockdown is the way to go, I don't think the tier system works.
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Current tier system does not seem to be reducing virus transmission and NHS is close to unable to cope in many areas.
Total lockdown needed at least until the end of January. By then we should know the numbers being vaccinated, I can no longer rely on government bu..s..t, posturing and politicking.
By then the vaccine roll out should be reducing the stresses on the NHS. Can then relax restrictions progressively on a tiered basis.
We are fortunate that the virus did not start to mutate three months earlier - we would all be in deep do-do with no light at the end of the tunnel vaccine.
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Miss Z was supposed to have 7 days off starting today, a mixture of weekends and annual leave.
She has been called back in due to colleagues going off sick.
All training has been suspended across the deanery and as she took the job as a trainee grade she's a little annoyed, especially as she has forked out over a £1,000 for her next exam and revision courses. She's hoping the exams get cancelled so she gets her money back but it puts her career on hold somewhat.
She's been transferred to A&E and suggests that people who come in needing to go to ITU don't stand a chance as there are just no beds available.
Whilst I loath the thought of another lockdown, I totally understand the need for it.
Keep safe and well folks.
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When is the current lockdown due to be reviewed, or is it for the foreseeable dependent upon infection rates ?
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>> When is the current lockdown due to be reviewed, or is it for the foreseeable
>> dependent upon infection rates ?
>>
Mid February I think the review date that was mentioned.
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>> Thanks sooty.
>>
I assume you're thinking of flights to Spain, if it were me I'd be aiming for mid to late march before flights start to open up again.
The PM's speech seemed to indicate schools would be the priority when the rules allow things to open up.
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I’ve cancelled my regular Tuesday walk with a pal as it meant a 20 mile drive to the start of our planned 14 mile circular. Like in lockdown MK1 I’ll be walking from my backdoor again. Better dig out the CTEK battery charger.
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This is an unfortunate consequence that only gives fuel to the covid conspirators fires.
From CNN
Singapore police can obtain data from the country's Covid-19 contact-tracing technology for criminal investigations, a government minister said in parliament.
“The Singapore Police Force is empowered under the Criminal Procedure Code (CPC) to obtain any data, including TraceTogether data, for criminal investigations,” said Desmond Tan, the country's Minister of State for Home Affairs.
TraceTogether is a digital system developed by the Singaporean government that notifies people who might have been exposed to Covid-19 through close contact with confirmed cases. It comes in the form of either a smartphone app or a Bluetooth token.
Tan added that the government is the "custodian" of data collected through the system, and that "stringent measures" are in place to ensure that it can only be used for "authorized purposes."
As of Monday, more than 4.2 million people, or 78% of Singapore's population, have enrolled in the TraceTogether program, said Lawrence Wong, co-chair of the multi-ministry task force tackling the Covid-19 pandemic.
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My neighbour came home from Singapore at the beginning of December leaving her husband out there.
She relates all manner of stories. Suffice to say the residents are in no doubt about what they can and cannot do and there is strict enforcement.
Last edited by: Fullchat on Tue 5 Jan 21 at 11:24
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There is a very simple trade off.
If you want low covid infection rates, a large part of the price to be paid is a relatively high level of personal intrusiveness and strict enforcement.
The UK public apparently don't want central government "spying" on them through face recognition, credit card data, track and trace data, ANPR data etc etc.
Neither do they want to pay for sufficient numbers of police to enforce the law properly, preferring they use their crime detection capabilities in touchy feely social worker mode much of the time.
The UK has the covid outcomes that could have been expected. Want a different outcome - play the game in the way that other countries do!
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There was an a interesting projection of the potential rate of decline of the infection rate on the TV yesterday. The decline is not expected to be as rapid as it was as a result of the April lockdown due to the higher R number of the new variant of the virus. All other things being equal it will take three times as long to achieve the same effect as we did last year.
The lockdown restrictions may well therefore have to continue until Easter.
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>> The lockdown restrictions may well therefore have to continue until Easter.
but they wont.
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It all depends how rapidly the vaccine is rolled out.
15m most vulnerable people make up 90% of deaths.
If the vaccine is rolled out at 2m pw, by mid March death rates will reduce by ~90%. Even if infections increase, extreme NHS pressure will have largely gone.
Personally once I am vaccinated I will want to get back to fairly normal rapidly. Younger people will expect to be let off the leash when it is clear granny is unlikely to die.
Thus the prospect of significant lockdown restrictions being enforceable post end March is close to zero - I and many other would frankly ignore them.
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I'm also looking forward to normality but I am happy to wait "as long as it takes" (within reason!).
I don't think there is any evidence yet either way about whether the vaccinated can carry the virus, the last memorable thing I saw about it suggested they could (and would) so while it may give us a bit of a feeling on invincibility it may be a bit premature to take it as the signal to party...
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If you are one of those flouting the rules I really, really hope something unpleasant happens to you. Though preferably not something that needs hospitalisation and will make tehse people's lives worse.
So beyond the reports we see here about members' family, watch this.
www.bbc.com/news/av/health-55540701
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Sorry Smokie, I definitely wasn't having a go at you, or anybody else in particular for that matter.
Are you aware that if you click on the little character that looks like a rotated return button on the top left of a post it will show you specifically which post is being replied to?
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>> So beyond the reports we see here about members' family, watch this.
>>
>> www.bbc.com/news/av/health-55540701
>>
I have a similar photo of Miss Z, dressed in a blue all in one, hood, mask, visor and gloves.
Dr Z (her first name though) was in marker pen on her back.
Spending all day in the outfit is very uncomfortable.
Reports that you really don’t want to be in hospital at the moment, though is seeing a lot of patients that have left illnesses too long because they didn’t want to go to hospital and in some cases fatally so!
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Conspiracy theorists have shown conclusive proof that CV-19 is a product of 5G networks by publishing the schematic of the chip (the one that Bill Gates plans to implant in everyone.)
There's only one slight problem though... it's the schematic for a guitar pedal.
www.theregister.com/2021/01/05/5g_vaccine_chip_boss_metal_zone_mt2/
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BW noticed that the message linking/redirect is broken on the AWS server - will fix tomorrow
Edit: / fixed now
Last edited by: car4play on Tue 5 Jan 21 at 18:59
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I've now taken to wearing a shield as well as a mask. No idea how effective they are, but it can't do any harm.
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I read that shields have almost no effect at all at preventing the virus from being passed to other people or preventing you from getting it. You are probably better protected wearing glasses and a good mask.
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>> I read that shields have almost no effect at all at preventing the virus from
>> being passed to other people or preventing you from getting it. You are probably better
>> protected wearing glasses and a good mask.
I doubt if anyone has done a controlled trial, or even an observational one, only thought experiments. Assumptions have presumably been made about how much a visor could reduce airborne virus cf. masks or nothing. So our opinions are probably nearly as valid as those of "experts" on this one.
Clearly they don't prevent the wearer breathing out the virus and it seems likely that less of it will be captured than would be by even a simple face mask. But it would stop the wearer literally spitting virus around when speaking/breathing/coughing so even if a third party still comes into contact with the virus they are likely to receive less of it.
I think some of the observational work on mask wearing has suggested that there is a worthwhile reduction in viral loads with masks which correlates with milder illness - I can't cite anything so maybe I read too much into it, but it would make sense.
Where people claim exemption from masks I have a but more sympathy if they wear a visor. One of the volunteers I work with uses a visor as she struggles with a mask and I feel reasonably happy with that especially as she is very voluble!
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I never saw the point of staff in restaurants wearing visors instead of masks. As the wearer is generally standing and the customer sitting, it seems to me all they do is direct whatever covid the wearer has down to customer level, and onto whatever it is they’re carrying. I reckon exposure (to a customer) would be less if they didn’t bother! Though, round here at least, visors went almost as soon as they came...for a week or so they were everywhere, but masks soon prevailed again. I assume they are less comfortable to wear? I still see people driving round solo in their own cars wearing a mask, which bemuses me
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A visor might catch 'chunks' but small droplets go with the airflow around the sides/under the visor, doing nothing to reduce contamination of tables/door handles/etc.
Invariably the corpulent blobs I see shambling around with a visor on would be better suited to STAY INDOORS!
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>> the corpulent blobs
Not really appropos, except possibly to the risk factor, but a friend of mine started work maybe 50 years ago ago in Dunn & Co.
He can't recall it now, but I distinctly remember him ranking the euphemisms Dunn & Co used to describe ready made suit fittings - stout, for example, was not as large as portly.
Maybe he made it up, or it just fell out of use pre-internet, but I can't find any trace of it and wish I could remember it.
I think short, and 'heavy set' came into it somewhere as well. I don't think corpulent did, it isn't really euphemistic enough.
Any old tailors here?
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I recall my maternal grandmother was described as having "big bones". She was quite tall and, I suppose, what I'd call well-built, but not proper fat.
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>> I recall my maternal grandmother was described as having "big bones". She was quite tall
>> and, I suppose, what I'd call well-built, but not proper fat.
I call that "sturdy". I had a sturdy grandmother.
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SWMBO & I had our first Pfizer vaccine jabs before Christmas. The second jab is booked for the 12th. January, although whether that will be postponed is not yet clear.
No side effects at all, so far.
Now here's the thing - I'm just getting over a cough, sore throat and 'acking cough.(No temperature or loss of taste/smell).
Is this a "traditional" cold I wonder, or has the jab prevented a full blown Covid-19 episode?
(SWMBO had nowt but a sore throat).
I've only been shopping and to the doctor's surgery for dressings on a persistent foot ulcer and our practice is hyper-strict on distancing and taking one's temperature before entry.
Whatever the cause is/was, it shows just how easy it is to pick up an infection!
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Hi Roger - long time no read!
Usually colds infect the cooler upper airway/nose so you get lots of snot/sniffing/sneezing as well as the cough, not that common to have a significant temperature with a cold.
Covid prefers warmer bits of the body so often a snot-less cough, no sneezing, and decent fever.
You may well not get the 2nd jab for now - people booked for this week seem to be getting it, but anyone else will get it towards the end of the 12 week period (unless they change their minds again and go with a 1 jab strategy to cover the bulk of the population asap).
Stay safe - the numbers are still rising impressively across the country.
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Glad you showed up, I was just starting to get concerned. Look after yourself, Roger. It'd be awful to catch it right at the end.
Well, it would be awful anytime, but you know what I mean.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 6 Jan 21 at 15:21
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Going back to sizing.
'No stranger to the chip shop' was one I heard :)
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I had CV-19 in April/May and, as Lygonos said above, there were no no snotty, sneezy and sore throat symptoms as you usually get with a cold. The worst effects were a serious difficulty in breathing, fatigue and a continuous dry cough. If you get CV-19 badly enough to display symptoms I think you'd know it wasn't a cold. More like real influenza if you know what I mean.
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For me it went to pneumonia at about the 1 week mark. The symptoms were many and varied, none of them good, but at no time did I get a high temperature.
I had no cold like symptoms; not temperature, runny/stuffed nose or sore throat.
I did have the cough and the breathing difficulties.
I think I agree with Kevin, it's either no symptoms in which case who knows or it is symptoms you really know about and are way beyond a cold..
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1000 Deaths announced today.
Stay Safe
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>> 1000 Deaths announced today.
>>
>> Stay Safe
>>
Please do.
Miss Z has been treating people in ambulances today. There are no beds. She has been qualified for 3.5 years now. When she was on ITU during the first wave she said it was very bad and there are lasting effects. She thinks it's worse now. The Trust here is poorer and no where near as well equipped, but she thinks the staff pull together better.
People still think the rules don't apply to them, coming to hospital sans mask because they are special cases.
Because she was supposed to be on leave, her shift was mercifully short with her consultant searching her out after 5 hours and telling her to go home and come back fresh in the morning.
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Zippy. Cheer Miss Z up a bit and tell her about Matt Hancock's hospital tour.
Recently Matt Hancock was visiting a hospital. As always, he was looking for something to beat the NHS with to show how badly run and wasteful they were. Hancock checked all the books and then did his tour.
While on the tour he turned to the ward manager and said, "I notice you buy and use a lot of bandages. What do you do with all the plastic middles out of the roll?"
"Good question", noted the ward manager, "We save them up and send them back to Johnson and Johnson and every once in a while, they send us a free box of bandages. We recycle whenever possible."
"Oh" he said, somewhat disappointed that his unusual question had a practical answer. But on he went with his tour to the next ward.
"What about all these coloured casts you dispense. They seem to be rather a waste of money?"
"Ah, yes", she replied, "We ask that any patient wanting a coloured cast donates £1, which is far in excess of the 10p the colouring actually costs".
Hancock was determined to fluster the ward manager so on they went to the next ward.
"Well, what do you do with all the remains from the circumcision surgeries?"
"Here too we do not like waste", said the manager.
"What we do is save all the little foreskins and send them to the government in London and about once a year, at this exact time, they send us a complete prick".
Last edited by: Kevin on Wed 6 Jan 21 at 23:43
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>>Zippy. Cheer Miss Z up a bit and tell her about Matt Hancock's hospital tour.
:-)
Actually she's in jolly good spirits, though I was forced to sit in the lounge to watch Pretty Woman tonight. At least Julia Roberts has some redeeming features!
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>> 1000 Deaths announced today.
>>
Two more life-saving drugs have been found that can cut deaths by a quarter in patients who are sickest with Covid.
Supplies are already available across the UK so they can be used immediately to save hundreds of lives, say experts.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55574662
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>> The idiots have come out to play -
>>
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55601600
>>
'I stand under common law, not maritime law and this is assault'
I think someone's been watching too many YT videos.
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Tie them to a chair and stick them in a covid ward for 48 hours. Probably far more effective han a trivial fine!
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There's quite a few of them congregating every day around Speakers Corner. They are like a herd of sheep being contained at a distance by the Police. Every now and again the Police get one and then they are in shouting the usual profanites.
Then there are the 'Citizen Journalists' who aren't 'Citizen Journalists' by definition. Same faces and are all activists. Citizen Journalists are those that capture a dynamic situation by chance not tipping up to every event.
The Police do question them. They produce self made ID cards. They seem reluctant to arrest them for some reason. Maybe don't feel supported by the judicial process. They are also the group that relish any opportunity to engage in civil claims.
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"There's quite a few of them congregating every day around Speakers Corner."
And there is an amazing number congregating in the comments section of the online Telegraph*. They are the covid-deniers who think that's it's all part of some grand plot to cower the population. Anyone who tries to explain the reality of the situation is shouted down as a bed-wetter.
*other online rags are available where the commenters are equally stupid.
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>> "There's quite a few of them congregating every day around Speakers Corner."
>>
>> And there is an amazing number congregating in the comments section of the online Telegraph*.
>> They are the covid-deniers who think that's it's all part of some grand plot to
>> cower the population. Anyone who tries to explain the reality of the situation is shouted
>> down as a bed-wetter.
>>
>> *other online rags are available where the commenters are equally stupid.
>>
One can object to the massive infringement of civil liberties imposed on us without be8mg a COVID denier IMO. If you’re under 30 the risk of COVID negatively impacting your health is minuscule, and yet you are being asked to sacrifice your education, employment, future wealth and mental well being. That’s worth the right to be heard, and a debate surely? If you’re over 60 and objecting, then yes - you’re definitely in denial!!
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The clearly overzealous policing is really annoying.
The two women in the Derbyshire being accused of having a picnic for walking with a coffee for example.
I saw a middle aged woman on Bournemouth seafront go for a walk. Get tired and sit on a bench. Cuffed and arrested.
My mother in her late 70's masks, puts a face shield on and gloves and drives down to the front for a walk as it's flat. Now she's too frightened to in case she needs to sit down because she's tiered.
The police are taking it too far IMHO.
We live on a private road near some private woods and take the dog there for a walk. Since lockdown it has become more popular and she doesn't enjoy it so much so we go to a ANOB and it's so large that even if the car park is full the chances of coming in to contact with anyone is slight. It's a 10 minute drive.
Guess what, COP van blocking the carpark.
Absolute a***s.
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Are they not working as a group which they have to do? Having a break which they are also entitled to do? In a place which is theoretically closed to the public? Then some muppet comes in with a camera looking for 'likes'. Heaven help us.
Why don't these people go and check out some Travellers sites?
Last edited by: Fullchat on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 01:35
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Tough, If I drive to a client and meet with a colleague to arrange an emergency loan to keep a customer afloat in this crisis I am not allowed to go in to a McDonalds with the colleague afterwards and have a coffee.
I can get one take away.
They should have done the same.
In fact, considering their role, they should have gone further to do the right thing because what they are doing makes it seem that there really is one rule for them and one for us.
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 01:47
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>>I saw a middle aged woman on Bournemouth seafront go for a walk. Get tired and sit on a bench. Cuffed and arrested.
That seems rather unlikely.
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>> That seems rather unlikely.
>>
You really can be obnoxious at times.
It's on the front page of the several papers...
www.thesun.co.uk/news/13699433/cop-england-fine-lockdown-flouters-first-time/
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 02:13
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>>You really can be obnoxious at times.
Sorry, I wasn't meaning to be, I thought that was quite polite. I'll rephrase;
It seems unlikely that someone would be handcuffed for no more than sitting on a bench because she was tired. I suspect that there was considerably more to it than that. An attitude test badly failed at the least.
I notice that even The Sun in your link carefully said, partly in quotes: "A woman appears to have been arrested "for sitting on a bench""
>>I saw a middle aged woman on Bournemouth seafront go for a walk. Get tired and sit on a bench. Cuffed and arrested.
Do you mean that you saw it yourself?
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 02:21
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>>
>> Do you mean that you saw it yourself?
>>
I saw as in saw on the news / in a newspaper.
And yes, she probably was arrested because she didn't give her name and address for a ticket.
I think anyone out for a walk who took a rest would probably have the same normal attitude of challenging the police, who are not always right, but seem to think they are.
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According to that same article, "New guidance has been issued to chief constables as part of a tough new crackdown on coronavirus lockdown flouters. "
So I think laying it at the doorstep of the uniformed police out and about is unfair and misses the responsible person.
And if she had broken the law, and if they were trying to fine her / issue her a ticket in accordance with their instructions then she *does* have to give her name and address.
I suspect that she got everything she deserved.
>>I think anyone out for a walk who took a rest would probably have the same normal attitude of challenging the police
I for one would not. Nor would I call it a "normal" attitude, though absolutely far too frequent. But then, on that subject at least, I am free from chips on my shoulders.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 02:28
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>>Chips...
Healthy understanding of what some cops can be like.
Sitting on a bench should not be reason for a fine. As I said above, this hash attitude has put my mother and several others I know off from taking necessary exercise.
The guide lines are not law. The law says reasonable distance and exercise is permitted.
If the chief constables think their instructions from the Home Office (Patel) are too harsh then they should have the balls to speak up about it, they are chief constables after all and not rookies, but then I suspect they like these extra powers - look at Derbyshire Constabulary, they hit the headlines last time and again this time for being overzealous.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a jogger getting done for stopping to do up their laces at the moment because tying laces is not exercise.
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>>Healthy understanding of what some cops can be like.
.....with an instant assumption and declaration that ALL cops are like it.
That, would be a chip.
But you'll not be changed by anything I say, so best left.
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>> >>Healthy understanding of what some cops can be like.
>>
>> .....with an instant assumption and declaration that ALL cops are like it.
>>
>> That, would be a chip.
>>
>> But you'll not be changed by anything I say, so best left.
>>
"Some cops"
By definition not all. I know many honest cops locally. I also know some that I wouldn't turn my back on. I also know two cops that allegedly murdered an unarmed POS and got away with it. The chief constable was sacked though.
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 03:14
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>> slight. It's a 10 minute drive.
>>
>> Guess what, COP van blocking the carpark.
>>
>> Absolute a***s.
You are not supposed to drive anywhere for your exercise. Driving is not exercise is it.
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>>
>> You are not supposed to drive anywhere for your exercise. Driving is not exercise is
>> it.
>>
...which isn't true. You can travel (drive) to take exercise, but not "outside your local area"*.
(* don't ask me, I didn't draft the stuff).
There are a number of Country Parks within walking distance of me (so that's what I do), but, on clear Government advice, and as published on their websites) they have all left their car parks open (closed in Lockdown 1) for people to drive and take exercise.
Following the Derbyshire Police debacle (one really does suspect someone failed an attitude test), The neighbouring Notts Chief Constable repeatedly refused to be drawn on the outcome there, but confirmed that his force were targeted primarily with encouraging people to be sensible, rather than sailing in with penalties (though, as he pointed out, being in the vanguard of forces levying £10,000 penalties, they weren't averse to pursuing Covidiots).
Frankly, I would prefer it if people didn't drive to take exercise, as many are (observed) still using it as an excuse to get out and meet up, but, as above, I have the facility to walk from the door to/into pleasant country, and thus don't really need to drive.
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>>There are a number of Country Parks within walking distance of me (so that's what I do), >>but, on clear Government advice, and as published on their websites) they have all left their >>car parks open (closed in Lockdown 1) for people to drive and take exercise.
I stopped using a park local to me, as it became apparent the world and his brother were doing the same. Backed up by a local GP advising folk not to use parks because of crowding.
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>> You are not supposed to drive anywhere for your exercise. Driving is not exercise is it.
If that’s what they intended, then that’s what the law should say. But it doesn’t. There is nothing stopping you driving wherever you like (in England - the Welsh and Scots have more restrictions on movement) if it’s necessary for you to carry out a permitted activity. The guidance is not to drive, but that’s not the same. And ones persons necessary is another’s essential, as we saw with the rubbish spouted shopping at the beginning. Though how angling is now classified as exercise I do not know, and certainly doesn’t help with the messaging...
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 20:17
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Go to ANOB ? Really.....
Made me smile.
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>> One can object to the massive infringement of civil liberties imposed on us without be8mg
>> a COVID denier IMO. If you’re under 30 the risk of COVID negatively impacting your
>> health is minuscule, and yet you are being asked to sacrifice your education, employment, future
>> wealth and mental well being.
Schoolchildren may not be at risk of getting it it, but a: they carry it b: a whole slew of other people who are at risk have to turn up to school to teach them, and provide the support services
Plus their future job prospects wont be very good if all their customers are dead.
This wave is serious, already selections are being made by medical staff every day about who is being allowed to die because there is no capacity to save them.
Yeah sure its fine to protest about your civil liberties, but most seem to do it by noisily congregating somewhere. With such stupidity on show your view does not deserve to be heard.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 08:58
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> Plus their future job prospects wont be very good if all their customers are dead.
>>
>>
>
I don't think over exaggerating is overly helpful about this sort of thing.
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>> I don't think over exaggerating is overly helpful about this sort of thing.
>>
Pedant alert!
Tautology.
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A bit unnecessary I would of thought.
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And we’ve got the local ‘Covid police’ banging on in t’Dales. Local FB posts from the paranoid about people seen walking with rucsacs through my local town. Seriously. Call the police ! Follow them and get their car Reg numbers !
Jeez. At this time of year I always, when out on an afternoon walk, carry a rucsac just in case I decide to walk further than intended and descend from the hill at sunset. It contains spare warm clothes, thermos, head torch etc.
If any member of the public stops me and asks if I’m local they’ll get a mouthful.
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See Zippy? Older people can be gobby too :-)
I quite like that they are trying to enforce the lockdown, even if sometimes they are a bit misguided.
What is also misguided is trusting the Sun's reporting!!
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So is the info laid out on the Gov.UK site law or guidelines??
I listen to a piece on LBC regarding the enforcement of mask wearing and the exemptions with the deputy commissioner for the Met.
He seemed to think that his officers plus PCSO's would now be asking for proof of exemption and if none was produced then an on the spot fine would be issued, a heated discussion followed as to whether this was allowed...
I checked to the Gov.uk site as I've heard the official reasons for exemptions is listed, I also found out about 'exemption paperwork'... below is copied (badly) from the site.
I suspect point 2 & 3 is used a lot..
It seems that also don't officially have to prove that you are exempt even if challenged... or have I misunderstood the info?
When you do not need to wear a face covering
In settings where face coverings are required in England there are some circumstances where people may not be able to wear a face covering.
Please be mindful and respectful of such circumstances. Some people are less able to wear face coverings, and the reasons for this may not be visible to others.
This includes (but is not limited to):
1 children under the age of 11 (Public Health England does not recommend face coverings for children under the age of 3 for health and safety reasons)
2 people who cannot put on, wear or remove a face covering because of a physical or mental illness or impairment, or disability
3 where putting on, wearing or removing a face covering will cause you severe distress
4 if you are speaking to or providing assistance to someone who relies on lip reading, clear sound or facial expressions to communicate
5 to avoid harm or injury, or the risk of harm or injury, to yourself or others ‒ including if it would negatively impact on your ability to exercise or participate in a strenuous activity
6 police officers and other emergency workers, given that this may interfere with their ability to serve the public
Exemption cards
If you have an age, health or disability reason for not wearing a face covering:
you do not routinely need to show any written evidence of this
you do not need show an exemption card
This means that you do not need to seek advice or request a letter from a medical professional about your reason for not wearing a face covering.
However, some people may feel more comfortable showing something that says they do not have to wear a face covering. This could be in the form of an exemption card, badge or even a home-made sign.
Carrying an exemption card or badge is a personal choice and is not required by law.
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I think that's about the some of it so its almost unenforceable in public.
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There is no such thing as an exemption card or letter, though you can print off a sunflower lanyard if you like. We have a whole load of unenforceable guidelines and a bunch of woolly legislation. Why the civil service was unable to draft something suitable and enforceable I do not know, but that’s where we are.
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Why the civil service was unable to draft something
>> suitable and enforceable I do not know, but that’s where we are.
>>
Pretty much impossible I would have thought. You'd have so many exemptions, eg say distance to the nearest supermarket etc. It'd be as difficult to enforce as this one.
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>> There is no such thing as an exemption card or letter, though you can print
>> off a sunflower lanyard if you like. We have a whole load of unenforceable guidelines
>> and a bunch of woolly legislation. Why the civil service was unable to draft something
>> suitable and enforceable I do not know, but that’s where we are.
The stuff on the .gov website is, I think, analogous to the Highway Code. Where it covers legal requirements it uses must/shall. Guidance uses should. You may travel for exercise but should not travel outside your local area.
The law is set out in successive Statutory Instruments. The instrument dealing with face coverings is here:
www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/791/contents/made
Regulation 3 sets out what is required; subject to some exemptions like under 11s No person may, without reasonable excuse, enter or remain within a relevant place without wearing a face covering.
Regulation 4 provides a non-exhaustive list of 'reasonable excuses' including both physical and mental health, providing assitance, lip reading, eating or taking medication etc.
There's no requirement to carry a card or badge to confirm the existence of an individual's own reasonable excuse. To require one with the implication of it requiring evidence of a particular condition would have placed an utterly unreasonable demand on GPs etc.
Mrs B finds wearing one quite difficult, particularly if exerting herself - for example climbing multiple flights of stairs. In the summer for example she got quite distressed getting up from the lowest car deck to the passenger spaces on a P&O ferry She also has some mental health/psychological difficulty with masks (but not visors).
We've considered getting her a Sunflower lanyard but not yet done so. If she chose to remove a mask I'd expect a member of (say) supermarket staff to accept, without expansion into precise reasons, except to say that it was her health that at face value.
If it escalated and police got involved then it would be reasonable for an officer or PCSO to question her in more detail as to the 'reasonable excuse' relied on. If they were not satisfied then I don't think she'd accept a fixed penalty; a day trip to the Magistrates Court would be in order.
If they'd wanted two, rather than going to the press, the young ladies out for a 'picnic' in Derbyshire could have let it go to court.
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>>If they'd wanted two, rather than going to the press, the young ladies out for a 'picnic' in Derbyshire could have let it go to court.
That would be a world of stupid.
Potentially very expensive if the magistrate believes the Police over you.
Zero risk going via the media other than people thinking you're a fanny.
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>> Why the civil service was unable to draft something
>> suitable and enforceable I do not know, but that’s where we are.
>>
Depends what remit they got from Government. The use, and conflation of "rules" and "guidelines" doesn't make for the easiest of drafting, if that was what was requested.
Personally, I'd rather see more rules than guidelines, and I'm not convinced that it would be impossible to implement much more of the two in a legal framework.
With a Government pushing for more draconian action in the lockdown (whether or not it is actually fully covered in law, rather than guidelines) and Police Forces trying to serve communities with polarised views on the same, I have some sympathy with the position certain plod "on the ground" find themselves in.
The legislation should be tighter, clearer and then enforced (in the first instance with a light touch until the rules get embedded, and then with rigour).
As far as Civil Service drafting is concerned, I wouldn't be surprised to find the text has only briefly, if at all, passed their scrutiny before landing on the ministerial desk. Given the long-term running down of the Service, and the practice (particularly of, but not restricted to, this Government) throwing work at outside bodies, I suspect this may have been contracted out to some major law practice at QC and above rates, and dashed off by, at best, a junior paralegal (and at worst, the tea-lady*).
The result shows all the effects of a lack of basic understanding, and certainly a lack of continuity and learning between this and previous versions.
(*used only as a figure of speech; tea ladies are the salt of the earth (and the source of all gossip!))
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He seemed to think that his officers plus PCSO's would now be asking for proof
>> of exemption and if none was produced then an on the spot fine would be
>> issued, a heated discussion followed as to whether this was allowed...
>>
>
Did he happen to mention what form this proof would take?
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Which is why, IMO, those on all front lines - medical, retail, food production, teaching, energy/comms etc should get the vaccination before the elderly to enable things to return to normal. There’s little harm in asking those over 70 to continue to stay at home for an extra 8 weeks while the country vaccinates others. Those at risk for medical reasons should of course be offered it in the first wave. Politically of course that’s unpalatable, but would make a lot more sense than vaccinating a load of people who stay at home
Though it’s laughable to suggest that all their customers will be dead...it’s very unlikely that more than 0.2% of the U.K. population will die with COVID - if we were talking 10% I’d agree with you.
By far the largest number of protests seem to be on Twitter and on-line, physical gathering is bonkers, but also a tiny minority I’d say.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 10 Jan 21 at 20:19
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The NHS is at breaking point. At the moment they are not being explicit about the policies they are adopting to stop breaking completely.
However I suspect leaving ambulances queueing outside, and prioritising younger victims with a greater chance of recovery will be amongst them. This just avoids patients in corridors on trolleys waiting and (possibly) dying with no immediate treatment in prospect.
If the load increases significantly, an explicit strategy will need to be implemented to avoid meltdown within the hospital. Unless the load on frontline staff is controlled, there would be a collapse of effective capacity making the crisis even deeper.
A motoring analogy - normally average speeds are unaffected by traffic volumes. But if volumes increase beyond a certain point, average speeds decline and rapidly become stop/start. This is not a linear process - hence motorway variable speed limits to keep traffic flowing.
So back to the two old ladies having a cup of coffee. It seems an over-reaction, but (a) we don't know the real story, and (b) I accept the police will occassionally get it wrong.
If it sends the very clear message that non-compliance will no longer be taken lightly, but dealt with rapidly irrespective of the individual, I completely support their actions.
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>> So back to the two old ladies having a cup of coffee. It seems an
>> over-reaction, but (a) we don't know the real story, and (b) I accept the police
>> will occassionally get it wrong
>> If it sends the very clear message that non-compliance will no longer be taken lightly,
>> but dealt with rapidly irrespective of the individual, I completely support their actions.
>>
So you support people getting arrested when nothing illegal has been done. One of the women was arrested for being out twice in the day. She explained once was for shopping the other for exercise. They arrested her for anti social behaviour FFS.
I.e. she didn’t do anything wrong in law so they use the catch all offence of anti social behaviour.
This does not bode well for liberties in the future.
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Missed the edit.
The woman arrested for being out twice was monitored by CCTV in the town centre (shopping) then on the promenade later in the day.
If they are tracking peoples innocent movements in this way then it is overreach.
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>> There’s little harm in asking those over 70 to continue to stay at home
>> for an extra 8 weeks while the country vaccinates others. Those at risk for medical
>> reasons should of course be offered it in the first wave. Politically of course that’s
>> unpalatable, but would make a lot more sense than vaccinating a load of people who
>> stay at home
There's never been a requirement or even, so far as I can see, serious request for over seventies to stay at home. They were asked, at the outset of lockdown one, to be rigorous in social distancing. Self isolation 'for the duration' is a big ask and one that's never been made other than for shielders.
But as we've discussed before the media and the public in general conflate self isolation and shielding.
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>> Though it’s laughable to suggest that all their customers will be dead...it’s very unlikely that
>> more than 0.2% of the U.K. population will die with COVID -
That number will increase if all the employers are up and open, the cafes, restaurants, pubs, cinemas, bowling alleys, gyms, etc etc.
Many of those jobs, that were borderline, will never return. I read somewhere about a projection from PWC that says that London may well de populate and workers in town will never return to pre covid levels
(yes yes - I know its PWC)
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>>it's very unlikely that more than 0.2% of the U.K. population will die with COVID
Probably true - currently around 0.15% though we're about to hit a big spike before the vaccine (and the pretend lockdown...) kicks in.
Just as concerned that >5% of cases lead to longterm levels of disability - had a few younger (30s/40s) patients who were positive last Spring and seemed to do ok in the first few weeks, only to now be fairly crocked by fatigue and a variety of persisting symptoms.
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Coronavirus - Volume 29 - No FM2R
