Non-motoring > Brexit Discussion - Volume 72   [Read only] Miscellaneous
Thread Author: VxFan Replies: 102

 Brexit Discussion - Volume 72 - VxFan

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IMPORTANT - PLEASE READ

Before discussions start in this thread, I would like to point out that any petty arguments, personal attacks, or any other infringement of house rules, etc. will be deleted where we feel fit from now on.

We will not give notice that we have deleted something. Nor will we enter into discussion why something was deleted. That will also be deleted.

It seems that discussion about Brexit brings out the worst in some people.

Be nice, Play nice, and control your temper. Your co-operation would be appreciated.

Dave.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 13 Dec 18 at 01:59
       
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
BBC and Guardian both reporting that tomorrow's crunch vote is to be postponed:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46509288
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
If true, and if it is because she is trying to gain a different agreement, then that will be the end of TM's credibility with the EU, the UK and any watching aliens.
      1  
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
>> If true, and if it is because she is trying to gain a different agreement,
>> then that will be the end of TM's credibility with the EU, the UK and
>> any watching aliens.

Maybe not.

"Mr Junker, the UK parliament is going to reject any form of "backstop". Therefore there is no deal, post brexit date. Unless you come up with a solution to the Eire issue, there is going to be a hard border by default come that day.

I look forward to your solution"
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 10 Dec 18 at 13:01
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
Perhaps.

Or

"Hey, look everybody, we were right. A better deal was possible. We pushed TM after she said nothing could be done, and we got an advantage. Let's do it again and see what we get this time"


and

"Who believes anything that TM says, look what happened last time she gave us her word".

Or

"Sorry, TM, if we give you something new now, then you'll just come back for more next week".
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
Well either way, if there is a disorderly hard brexit the is a hard border in NI by default. And then the EU loses its no 1 "want" and throws one of its staying members to the wall.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
I think she is going to go for a second referendum on the deal.
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
It'd be laughable if it wasn't so tragic.
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
And if she did, and if the result was again 52/48 or whatever it was, then what?

A GE perhaps? From her position and for her career that is perhaps the only viable alternative path.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
General election?

Practically we cant get one in before 2019

Assuming change of Gov, by end of Jan. are they going to get a new deal by end of March?

No. Not possible. Physically not possible.




       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
True. But I don't think we could get a referendum in either.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
>> True. But I don't think we could get a referendum in either.

Before the end of March? Its possible. Probably desirable, less time for the spin merchants on both sides to indulge in their mischief.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
>> Before the end of March? Its possible. Probably desirable, less time for the spin merchants
>> on both sides to indulge in their mischief.

Referendum or GE; either would almost certainly get an extension of A50 time.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
The agreement in dispute IS extension of A50 time.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Manatee
>> The agreement in dispute IS extension of A50 time.

That's not my understanding. Under the transition agreement, we will not be a member of the EU.
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
>>Under the transition agreement, we will not be a member of the EU.

Kind of a restricted BEANO, though isn't it?


I wish one of these people objecting to the current transition deal would say what deal they aspire to.

And I don't mean something like "No Deal", "Hard Exit" or "WTO Terms" which truly are the options of the ignorant and badly informed. But what specifically they would change in the transition deal.

I said when the transition draft was released that those wanting to leave would be best to support the deal. Either they didn't listen, or I was wrong, I guess.
       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
> And I don't mean something like "No Deal", "Hard Exit" or "WTO Terms" which truly
>> are the options of the ignorant and badly informed. But what specifically they would change
>> in the transition deal.

From what I've read it's the NI backstop and it relating to seperate rules between GB and NI. That single issue, if changed, I think the plan would go through.
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
Agreed. But I don't know what they want to change it to.

They don't want a backstop of a hard border. But they don't want a backstop as it stands. They don't want it to go on forever, but they don't want to be forced into an agreement.

I truly don't even have a suggestion for a solution, especially since their objection is a fake objection justified with word games..


       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
>> truly don't even have a suggestion for a solution, especially since their objection is
>> a fake objection justified with word games..

The main option that many want adding is a time limit on the backstop, but when that times out and if there's no agreement, then I'm not sure what the situation would look like.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 10 Dec 18 at 15:19
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
>>The main option that many want adding is a time limit on the backstop, but when that times out and if there's no agreement, then I'm not sure what the situation would look like.

See my post to Dog.

There needs to be a time-limit. Fair enough. But then what happens when the time limit is reached?

1) Some backstop agreement

or

2) Hard border

So which MP would like to stand up and either propose a solution to be adopted as 1) or stand up and be counted for wanting 2)?
       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
> So which MP would like to stand up and either propose a solution to be
>> adopted as 1) or stand up and be counted for wanting 2)?
>>


PM has just asked similar in the HoC.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
>> Well either way, if there is a disorderly hard brexit the is a hard border
>> in NI by default. And then the EU loses its no 1 "want" and throws
>> one of its staying members to the wall.

I think, not for first time, that you're looking down wrong end of telescope on issue. EU/NI frontier is not a want; it's a need. The GF Agreement, of which the EU is de-facto guarantor, precludes return to old patrolled (ie hard) border. It won't agree to a withdrawal treaty that leaves hard border.

If we crash out of our own volition it's our problem.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero

>> If we crash out of our own volition it's our problem.

No its not. The EU is the defacto guarantor? Then if We leave the EU its their problem, thats the problem in being a guarantor, that s the risk you take.
       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
>> BBC and Guardian both reporting that tomorrow's crunch vote is to be postponed:
>>
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46509288
>>

Not quite yet, has to be voted on first. Pretty sure that the gov can't stop the vote on its own at this point.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
>> Not quite yet, has to be voted on first. Pretty sure that the gov can't
>> stop the vote on its own at this point.

AIUI it's a government motion and government can postpone it. If they do need vote to do so it could be interesting as they may not have DUP support.
       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
>
>> AIUI it's a government motion and government can postpone it. If they do need vote
>> to do so it could be interesting as they may not have DUP support.
>>

Someone put on the bbc feed from the HoC; a minister can defer it, a vote on it or a minister can talk it out.
       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
"The mainland British, in general, are largely clueless as to complex the Irish situation is both in political, religious and practical terms." From RP


I'd agree, at times NI can seem very confusing and some of the issues seem baffling if your not from that neck of the woods.

The Irish sea can seem very wide at times.
       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
Missed the edit, that's why I'm not sure this is an issue amongst the wider population. It's one that seems to get the MPs worked up but of all the brexit issues that comes into an MP's inbox I bet it's not in the top ten.

That's not to say that it doesn't matter but I don't think it's a to the death matter.
       
 Vote Postponed? - commerdriver
>> That's not to say that it doesn't matter but I don't think it's a to
>> the death matter.
>>
For the bad guys on that green island, both sides of the border, it was a definite "to the death matter" and a lot of innocent people over there and over here suffered for it.
The Good Friday agreement, and all it led to, should not be set aside lightly, by anybody.
       
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
Perhaps not quite the right choice of words. What I mean I don't think that the backstop, as is, is worrying too many of the population of GB. I think people have always seen NI as different from the mainland in many ways.
Should they in the future end up with a different set of rules in some areas to GB, I'm not sure too many voters will be thinking about it come election time.

And I include myself in that, I don't think we need to bring the whole thing crashing down over the NI backstop. If they end up with a different set of rules so be it.
       
 Vote Postponed? - R.P.
I reckon it's foremost in the mind if the population both green and orange. Too many people have died in a ditch for the GFA to fail now.
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
From a Labour MP who I don't actually like, just goes to show you never know who will be the oasis of sanity... [see bolded bit]

"Labour MP Pat McFadden says the prime minister is calling for honesty on a day that she tried to pull a vote she promised wouldn't be pulled, in order to try and change a deal she said couldn't be changed.

He calls on the prime minister to be honest about the commitments made to no hard border on the island of Ireland, to the Good Friday Agreement and on to not doing any huge damage to the economy.

Any deal that respects these commitments requires the UK to sign up to a set of common European rules, he adds, over which the UK will have no say.

"Isn't it time to be honest about this instead of trying to square unsquarable circles or, even worse, hide the facts of this fundamental choice until after we're out?" he asks."

      5  
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
>> If they end up with a different set of rules so be it.

I think different set of rules from GB is a red line for the unionists. They'll only accept different rules where (eg gay marriage or abortion) it suits their ideology.
      1  
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
"Labour's Seema Malhotra says that it is an "even bigger farce" that the government has paid £100,000 for adverts on social media companies to promote the deal, which has now been abandoned by the prime minister herself. "

Right, because that £100k is what's important right now.

Idiot.
      1  
 Vote Postponed? - tyrednemotional
...After that performance, I think the chances of Graham Brady needing his abacus have gone up somewhat....
      1  
 Vote Postponed? - sooty123
> I think different set of rules from GB is a red line for the unionists.
>> They'll only accept different rules where (eg gay marriage or abortion) it suits their ideology.
>>

Precisely, it's not a big deal for me. Although I'm sure, as mentioned it is for their politicians.
       
 Vote Postponed? - R.P.
They'll only accept different rules where (eg gay marriage or abortion) it suits their ideology.

Yes, they're a bunch of right wing zealots, but they've every right to stick to their guns (figuratively hopefully) on the hard-border. May misjudged the last GE and had to get into bed with them, (again figuratively !) - you couldn't make it up.

The Irish border was always going to be the sticking point from the day Cameron announced a referendum, just that mainstream politicians either were ignorant of the consequences or or ignored it...if this was a BBC drama it would be beyond belief.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
So what does the Eu and Eire think is going to happen to the border if there is a hard brexit then?

Have they planned for that, its real possibility
       
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
>> So what does the Eu and Eire think is going to happen to the border
>> if there is a hard brexit then?
>>
>> Have they planned for that, its real possibility

Hard brexit would be a consequence of the acts/omissions of the UK government; a risk RoI and EU have to mitigate for.

       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
A hard brexit was the choice of the people, not an act ommision of the Uk government.

So I ask again, What do the EU and Eire intend to do about a border adj their territory. Which is in effect will be ipso facto just another non Eu border. What happens on the border of Ukraine? Albania? Russia? Turkey?

And dont give me mitigate, mitigate is a mealy mouth wishy washy word that ,means "we have no idea.

Why is the backstop not Eire must leave the EU?

Last edited by: Zero on Mon 10 Dec 18 at 22:33
      2  
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
>> A hard brexit was the choice of the people, not an act ommision of the
>> Uk government.

No. People chose to leave the EU. Hard/soft, Norway or Canada were not on the ballot. Most on the leave side, except headbangers like Liam Fox, stated or implied Norway model as just fine.

You know as well as I do what mitigation means in risk management terms.

As for RoI leaving EU - what are you drinking?
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
>> No. People chose to leave the EU. Hard/soft, Norway or Canada were not on the
>> ballot. Most on the leave side, except headbangers like Liam Fox, stated or implied Norway
>> model as just fine.

Did they? sorry I think you are the one consuming something.

>> You know as well as I do what mitigation means in risk management terms.

Yes I do, however in this case its "we dont know"
>>
>> As for RoI leaving EU - what are you drinking?

It is directly comparable to the EU insisting that NI remain within the EU

The point I am making, the border is being foisted entirely on us to resolve, when in fact its only 50% our border.

The EU didnt seem to be bothered about NI being outside shengen, so in effect its a border they didnt bother to police. So why now?
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 10 Dec 18 at 23:07
       
 Vote Postponed? - Lygonos
Ireland isn't in Schengen.

Presumably UK and Eire could come up with their own border plan (not like it wasn't a leaky border before Good Friday) with UK and Eire agreeing that the Eire/rEU border and UK/rEU borders were more important.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Dog
>>The EU didnt seem to be bothered about NI being outside shengen, so in effect its a border they didnt bother to police. So why now?

Shirley, it comes down to them wanting us to stay in their undemocratic union and wanting more of our £billions.

May (and Robbins etc.) negotiated this bum deal. She MUST go, and be replaced with a Brexiteer but, I wont be holding my breath.
      1  
 Vote Postponed? - Lygonos
Just need a mention of "Why are we sending £££ overseas when we should be spending it on our own people" and my Mail Bingo card is done.
       
 Vote Postponed? - tyrednemotional
>>...... and my Mail Bingo card is done.
>>

I'm playing Brexit Crisis rummy.

I've already got two political crises and a constitutional crisis. I only need an economic crisis and a logistical crisis and I've got the full set........
       
 Vote Postponed? - tyrednemotional
...unfortunately, I don't think a Conservative Party Crisis (Breaking News) is going to improve my hand at all.....

:-)
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero

>> Shirley, it comes down to them wanting us to stay in their undemocratic union and
>> wanting more of our £billions.

You didn't seem bothered by that when you were living there.

And I'd not majorette our bit too much if I were you, I'd wager you have not exactly been a major contributor to the countries coffers or well being.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 11 Dec 18 at 08:05
       
 Vote Postponed? - Dog
>> You didn't seem bothered by that when you were living there.

That was before Maastricht, Spain hadn't even 'adopted' the €uro when we lived there.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Zero
Oh Ok, I guess we weren't paying into the EU then.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Bromptonaut
>> That was before Maastricht, Spain hadn't even 'adopted' the €uro when we lived there.

No but both countries were in the EU so UK expats got a pretty easy ride.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Dog
>>No but both countries were in the EU so UK expats got a pretty easy ride.

Aye, and it was good (for us) while it lasted. To get a similar ride now one has to look at countries outside the EU such as Turkey, Morocco etc.
       
 Vote Postponed? - Cliff Pope
>> >>
>>
>> You know as well as I do what mitigation means in risk management terms.
>>

"alleviate, reduce, diminish, lessen, weaken, lighten, attenuate, take the edge off, allay, ease, assuage, palliate, cushion, damp, deaden, dull, appease, soothe, relieve, help, soften, temper, still, quell, quieten, quiet, tone down, blunt, dilute, moderate, modify, abate, lull, pacify, placate, mollify, sweeten, tranquillize, remit, extenuate, excuse, commute"

ie exactly as Zero says.
It very definitely does not mean "take firm action to prevent something happening".
       
 Vote Postponed? - Manatee
So what's the problem? If they can't stop it, they have to mitigate the effects.

There's a limit to what the EU will do for UK when it is to the detriment of the 27 remaining members.

This is partly a function of the fact that the EU tries to work as a single economic unit - which is what the net payments from the wealthier countries are about.

Out is good, from the point of view of freedom of action, but it is not reasonable to expect totally free trade with the EU at no cost.

At heart, I would prefer to be 'out' - i.e. not an 'all-in' member of the EU which still has deep rooted problems as a half-baked superstate (which we never were, with our rebate, opt-outs, and euro-avoidance). But it is very much in our interests to cooperate with the bloc and that means give and take, either as a member or as a partner.

I don't accept that the main driver of the EU's negotiating stance is to punish the UK or to deter other potential leavers, although it might be a consideration that denies us any favours. Conspiracy theories are fake news for the most part. Self-interest on the other hand is a given, but it is usually simple when full understanding is established.

The knee-jerk grandstanding of politicians is not helpful in these circumstances. The parliamentary debate yesterday was a huge disappointment, with most contributors just repeating the same claptrap. I lost count of the times TM said "I refer my the honourable member to my previous answer to this question".

The SNP were the worst, I think every one of them joined in, none had anything useful to say and they all badgered Corbyn to go for a confidence motion - I assume they were all reading from the same bit of paper.

I can't imagine where it will go from here - May has threatened the Brexiters with losing Brexit altogether, and the Remainers with a 'no deal Brexit'. To expect the EU to give the UK a contractual opt-out on the backstop is a daydream, so all she has really done is delay, presumably in the hope that enough will back down.

Meanwhile the 'people's vote' idea is spreading like Japanese knotweed.
      1  
 Vote Postponed? - Mapmaker
>>on a day that she tried to pull a vote she promised wouldn't be pulled, in order to try and
>>change a deal she said couldn't be changed.

The only way she COULD get it changed was to present it as something she COULDN'T get changed, and to prove to the EU that Parliament would write it off and we would (likely) either Brexit or Remain - neither of which the EU *really* wants now.
       
 Vote Postponed? - No FM2R
Manatee,

Other than the fact that originally you were coming from a "Leave leaning" and I was coming from a "Remain leaning", I entirely agree with everything you just wrote.



Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 11 Dec 18 at 16:43
       
 Vote Postponed? - Dutchie
Good points Manatee.

Theresa May hasn't got the authority anymore to threaten anyone.

The referendum vote was leaving the E.U.Deal or no deal according to many leavers.

May saw Rutte this morning with his usual false smile.The Dutch are spending large amounts of money on storage for goods,because we are leaving the customs union.

Nobody as far I can read in Europe is happy about this becoming mess.


       
 Vote Postponed? - Manatee
>> Manatee,
>>
>> Other than the fact that originally you were coming from a "Leave leaning" and I
>> was coming from a "Remain leaning", I entirely agree with everything you just wrote.

I have glimmers of understanding now and then when the fog clears!

I'm not sure what I'd do in TM's position, however. But it probably requires greater frankness and humility than has been the case so far. It won't be easy to change tack at this stage but the headmistress routine isn't working. Any ideas?
       
 Vote Postponed? - zippy
Last month at work we had texts sent to our work mobile devices with a request to reply with a unique code sent previously. Testing that everyone could be contacted I guess.

Today, rugged Motorola mobile phones turned up with push to talk to group features (radio) and detailed tracking and an invite to a "course" on how to use them.

Told to test they switch on and connect then put them away until mid March.

One phone for each team member and the boss and apparently other teams in the company have them too.

Someone in business continuity is worried its going to go pear-shaped!
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - sooty123
Brady announced that he has enough letters to trigger a contest. Should be announced tonight if she survives or not.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Zero
www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader


Get your money down folks.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - sooty123
I think Hunt might be worth a couple of quid.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Ambo
I think Boris is favourite, in the sense of least-worst.
      4  
 leadership challenge threshold reached - sooty123
I suppose this all assumes she'll lose the vote. I think she might well win it.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Cliff Pope
The vote if she loses simply starts the process of selecting a new leader, doesn't it?
They're not going to elect a new leader this evening surely - there's a system of first and second ballots over a period, I thought?
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - sooty123
Correct, depending how many stand it could take several weeks.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Zero
>> The vote if she loses simply starts the process of selecting a new leader, doesn't
>> it?
>> They're not going to elect a new leader this evening surely - there's a system
>> of first and second ballots over a period, I thought?

True, but you wont get your best odds when the runners are under starters orders
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - sooty123
Apparently she's 1/2 to win the vote.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - CGNorwich
Not only do I think she will win the vote tonight but I also believe she will get her deal through parliement.

There is no other credible alternative.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Zero
>> I think Boris is favourite, in the sense of least-worst.

Boris least worse? Dear god.


Had some interesting chats at the FCO last month, there the opinion was that when he was FS he was a complete idiot with little or no grasp of current issues or outcomes and no ability to command gravitas.
      1  
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Bromptonaut
>> Had some interesting chats at the FCO last month, there the opinion was that when
>> he was FS he was a complete idiot with little or no grasp of current
>> issues or outcomes and no ability to command gravitas.

Boris looks good doing the 'vision thing' but he's widely reported to be hopeless at detail or actually managing stuff being done. His record as Mayor of London over 'Borismaster' buses, The Garden Bridge, Water Cannon etc should be ample warning of his utter unsuitability for the job of PM.

He's also a proven liar in respect of at least two bosses (Max Hastings and Michael Howard), both his wives and several mistresses.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - zippy
>>He's also a proven liar in respect of at least two bosses (Max Hastings and Michael >>Howard), both his wives and several mistresses.

Being unfaithful to one's wife is a huge indicator of the calibre of the man.

Putting British Citizens in danger through shear neglect is another.

The man is a menace and shouldn't even be in parliament, let alone a Minister or god forbid, Prime Minister.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Haywain
"The man is a menace and shouldn't even be in parliament"

One of my son's former (very attractive) g/fs was a political researcher and later put up as a Liberal candidate at a general election (2010?). I asked her about working in/around parliament etc, and rubbing shoulders with the great and the good (and the bad). And, I enquired "Do you come across Boris Johnson?". "Oh yes", she replied, "I don't like the way he looks me up and down".
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Manatee
Boris the favourite? Unthinkable.

Presumably weight of money, do bookies always balance the book?
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Bromptonaut
>> Boris the favourite? Unthinkable.

Difficult to make sense of odds until we know there's going to be a contest and the runners are declared. Link upthread includes all sorts of unlikely candidates. At least one, Ruth Davidson, is not eligible as she's not a Westminster MP.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Lygonos
>>At least one, Ruth Davidson, is not eligible as she's not a Westminster MP.

Isn't she also on maternity leave for a couple more months?
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Zero
Not sure the swivel eyed eye loons of the tory party are ready for an LGBT rainbow leader
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Bromptonaut
>> Being unfaithful to one's wife is a huge indicator of the calibre of the man.

I wouldn't judge a man on that if it were merely a single episode; anyone can fall into temptation or stray from a failing or empty marriage. Boris though is a serial offender.

His action/carelessness in relation to Mrs Nazari-Ratcliffe is culpable negligence. An FCO staffer making a statement on lines he did would be subjected to a disciplinary investigation with dismissal a serious possibility.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Dutchie
I see what you are saying Brompt but surprising how many people like Boris.

Maybe his demeanour the I am innocent look and I mean well.

I find Michael Gove even more of a creepy fellow,everything about him is wrong.


Theresa will hang in there for the time timing.The Tories know there is no point of changing and booting her out now.Except of course for the few.

I like to see this lot out.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - smokie
Funny really, SWMBO was saying just yesterday that in her opinion, and she thinks that of the general public, Seann Walsh is "not a very nice man at all" for snogging some dancer off a celeb TV show, yet she thinks Boris is one of the good guys, and he is favourite in that betting link from Zero.

OTOH (and she isn't especially politically aware) she did just say that if she was TM she'd tell 'em to shove the job where the sun don't shine.

Made me smile, but she has a point and I suspect there's many who would do the same if their job had given just a small fraction of the grief she's had (albeit they aren't the PM!)
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Dutchie
Toney Benn was never picked as a Labour .A Lord with left- wing vieuws married to an American Lady.

The Sun used to crucify Toney.I always liked him with his debating skills and forthright views.

On another subject Brian Clough should have been a England football manager.Outspoken man not liked by the boys in charge in the F.A.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Dutchie
Leader sorry.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - CGNorwich
I would think the moral from Belloc's tale of Jim being eaten by a lion is appropriate here.

"Always keep a hold of nurse for fear of finding something worse."
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Zero
She will stay.

After all if you have a sacrificial goat tethered up, why pull it back and take its place?
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Ambo
At 12:39 today the Telegraph gave these odds (but did not say whose they are):

Boris 9/2; Raab 5/1; Javid 6/1; Gove 8/1; Hunt 8/1; Rudd 16/1; Davis 16/1; Moggie 20/1.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - CGNorwich
So odds on Mrs May will coninue then?
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Wed 12 Dec 18 at 15:58
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - sooty123
>> So odds on Mrs May will coninue then?
>>

She's 1-12 to win and 6/1 to lose. So very much in favour to stay if the bookies odds are anything to go by.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - No FM2R
I don't normally do conspiracy theories, but surely it must have occurred to TM that winning a no confidence vote now and thus being safe from another for 12 months would be one less problem for her when the row about the transition deal heats up next week.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - tyrednemotional
...if she has any sense, given that her deal will still remain unsellable even if she wins the NC vote, she'll reflect on the fact that no-one can now challenge her for a year, and invoke the second referendum.....
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Fullchat
Had crossed my mind. Get some of your supporters in. Get them to submit letters of no confidence to reach the required number thereby forcing the vote. Vote goes her way. Now the moaners and criticisers can STF up causing a distraction from the job in hand which is Brexit.

Is openly showing 'No Confidence' in your Boss a good career move particularly if you are in the Cabinet ??
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - smokie
I wondered if it was tactical but if a slightly different way. Plan 1 isn't ever going to fly but she can't afford to be seen to back down, so she gets a No Confidence vote and either loses it )and her problem goes away) or wins it and is able to go back to the EU for a better position, saying the government forced her into it rather than having to show a weakness on her part.



For me, I'm still not sure I've heard what that better position might be, but I've been out of the country for a couple of weeks, which is a long time in politics.


EDIT Surely people are not serious about a further referendum??? Whatever would the Mail make of THAT - even though it is probably campaigning for it, in the event of a volte-face by the Govt the Mail would say that it shows weakness...
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 12 Dec 18 at 19:15
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - legacylad
Smokie, if I were ewe I’d leave again...
I did
Last edited by: legacylad on Wed 12 Dec 18 at 19:13
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - sooty123
Catching up on the news, it appears she told her MPs that if she got through this vote she wouldn't contest the next election nor an early election.

Probably enough to win it fairly comfortably I think.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - No FM2R
>> she wouldn't contest the next election nor an early election.

She actually said "It is not my intention to...."

political wiggle room in there I feel.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Zero
>> >> she wouldn't contest the next election nor an early election.
>>
>> She actually said "It is not my intention to...."
>>
>> political wiggle room in there I feel.

Jim Hacker's phrase summed it up.

"While one does not seek the office, one has pledged oneself to the service of one's country. And if one's friends were to persuade one that that was the best way one could serve, one might reluctantly have to accept the responsibility, whatever one's own private wishes might be."
      2  
 leadership challenge threshold reached - Lygonos
Nearly 40 years old but Yes (Prime) Minister is required watching for anyone with a brain.
      1  
 leadership challenge threshold reached - No FM2R
Results at 21:00 apparently.
       
 leadership challenge threshold reached - zippy
>>Required watching.

It's still on the stop today!

I was watching a repeat a while back and it seemed that politics had gone full circle - it was as if real life was imitating the comedy.

       
 And she wins - zippy
200 to 117 I think.
       
 And she wins - No FM2R
"The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says the margin of victory is a "real blow" to the PM's authority"

Then the BBC need to stop letting their interns write headlines.

A torrid time with so many high profile people whining on about her deal, 5 months of threatening a vote of non-confidence, and a concerted effort to get her out.

And she gets more votes than she got in the original leadership contest, and safety for 12 months.

Jeez the BBC gets more rubbish every day.
       
 And she wins - No FM2R
From the BBC...

"... outside in a frantic committee corridor Theresa May’s critics made clear the margin of defeat means they aren’t going away. This doesn’t solve anything, one told me."

"A few metres away, the PM’s allies said the result was clear and put the issue to bed."


What a bunch of Fidiots our politicians are.
       
 And she wins - sooty123
>> Jeez the BBC gets more rubbish every day.

Itv and the Sunday times led with such a reaction. I think they were all thinking 80 max voting against her.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 13 Dec 18 at 01:56
       
 And she wins - Stuartli
>>"The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says the margin of victory is a "real blow" to the PM's authority">>

Laura Keuenssberg tends to be over dramatic whilst usually getting to the heart of the matter, but the calm and measured presentation at all times, especially when under considerable pressure because of live reporting, by Vicki Young, her BBC News political editor equivalent, is worthy of much praise.
       
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