***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 57 *****
==============================================================
Ongoing negotiations.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 20:05
|
"Guardian/Observer take on J R-M:" .....
The funniest thing about that cartoon is the caption underneath ...... "No one steers our opinion". The Graun's opinion doesn't need steering - it's as predictable as a Cambridge Guided Bus.
|
|
One for all you racist little Englander Brexit morons: www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9T4dGAxtO0
|
|
Sounds like he’s got huge chip on his shoulder and a massive inferiority complex. Perhaps he could do a video explaining exactly what he expected to achieve by voting for Brexit, what sort of deal he is prepared to accept and how he, his fellow voters and the nation as a whole will benefit from Brexit because nobody else seems prepared to do so. Might then be worth listening to.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Sun 16 Sep 18 at 13:45
|
|
A real case of "if the cap fits"
|
|
:) and I never believed in nominative determinism
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Sun 16 Sep 18 at 14:33
|
>> One for all you racist little Englander Brexit morons:
I can't fault your audience selection.
|
Come the 29 March 2019, what thoughts has anyone got on £/€ exchange rates ? Maybe the rate won’t change, and I don’t think anyone has a clue at the moment.
The reason I ask is that about 10 years ago I had the opportunity to buy a fantastic apartment/condo in an expanding ski development in northern CA. $/£ exchange rate at the time was 2/1. I bottled it and have regretted it ever since!
Next week I’m looking at two villas on the C Blanca in an area I know very well. Both have great summer rental income potential and I can’t sell my house between now & then to finance the purchase. A very good friend ( my ex) is looking at them with me and is prepared to buy 50/50, and let me repay her the money when I sell my place next Spring. In the meantime, U.K. house prices could head south, and by then the villas will be sold. And I couldn’t afford either if UK property values fell much!
I’m just interested in hearing anyones gut instinct on future exchange rates and property values...living within the Y Dales NP I don’t think house values in my area will be much affected, and two houses local to me sold within a few months, if not weeks.
Decision time looms...
|
If anyone could tell you the answer they would be a multi billionaire and highly unlikely to be reading this forum!
If it's what you want just take a punt.
|
Anybody who could answer your questions with any degree of safety would already be very very rich.
In my opinion, don't do it if your motive is profit.
Consider the Spanish market...
Look at this....
data.kyero.com/en/data/spain
Have a play around, but in particular...
Select "International buyers" and check "Show % change".
I bet you a pie and a pint [if we're ever in the same pub] that the area you are looking at has red percentages (falling prices).
- Select "Market Activity" - same pint, your area is showing a massive increase in activity.
- Select mortgage lending, dropped off a cliff.
- Select population, falling.
All horrible. Just don't do it. It's just one source, but it's a pretty good one and the others don't vary much.
And that's not getting into the amount of work involved in trying to manage a rental property remotely. Maintenance, repair, cleaning, issue resolution etc. etc. etc. That'll sort out any profits.
Though, the one bright spot, is that I don't see tourism dropping off, though how much of that increase will be picked up by tour operators, I don't know. But tourism numbers will maintain or rise, prices the same, so perhaps...
The UK property market though, who knows. I'd be stunned if prices increased by any significant amount. Will they fall? Perhaps. But I think both the likelihood and the amount of change will vary depending on type, size and location of the property.
This is the FT's opinion, though it is just an opinion. I think it's reasonable.
www.ft.com/content/5f4bd650-b737-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe
Will the price of the property in Spain rise? No, I don't think so. I think they will continue to fall, albeit slowly.
Is renting a remote property a good idea? Typically not. Though perhaps living in it half the year yourself will make it easier to maintain in good order.
So, as I said, in my opinion just don't do it.
Having said that, I am probably going to. But I am not buying a gringo style property in a gringo tourist area, I shall never rent it out, I don't need to finance the purchase and I have no expectation of making any profit from it.
|
Re tourism, it feels to me already that travelling to Europe is more expensive than it's ever been, though some parts are still cheap. In participate, flights seem to be generally more expensive this year.
I have a mate who has just bought a property in England, primarily as a second home in retirement but he's thinking he might cover some of his bills by renting cheap to mates. I'm in week 2 of 3.5 in Portugal and have given some thought to buying a place here, or in England, with the same plan. Whichever way I look at it, the remote rental bit is not something I want to get involved with. I'm currently in an Airbnb which is very nice but I'd be fretting about it, and we've been warned to not mention to neighbors that we are renting it, if asked. That's apart from all the hassle and cost which may arise _ things getting broken, unhappy customers (one of the biggest problems for anyone providing any service theses days, and grumpy neighbours).
Re the Euro,the market will be your indicator, but as a gambler in a previous life, it's not something I'd gamble on.
And lastly I have little idea about the foreign property market but I'm sure there will be lots of hungry sharks waiting to take advantage, and that's without the complications which being a foreign buyer and owner might bring.
|
If you are going to buy a property abroad it has to be one that you can afford to own without rental income.
Of course, perhaps rental income will be a welcome assistance or benefit and something you want, but you mustn't put yourself in a position where you *need* to rent it. You are just too vulnerable to financial loss that way.
IMHO, of course.
|
"the complications which being a foreign buyer and owner might bring."
A few years ago, one problem that cropped up was Ryanair deciding to discontinue flying to the nearest airport.
|
That is an extremely valid and important point and worth repeating.
Nothing will cause rental revenue to drop through the floor faster than flight changes.
Or vice versa of course.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 16 Sep 18 at 19:59
|
I’ve never really cared for the idea of investing large chunks of capital in things like second homes, caravans, motor homes or boats. I think I would get bored with constantly going back to the same place or feeling obliged to use the boat or caravan t get my money’s worth.
Renting seems a far better option.to me. Am in a lovely little apartment in Molyvos, Lesvos at th moment right in theheart of the town. 45 Euro’s a night and no worries. Seems a bargain.to me.
|
>> A few years ago, one problem that cropped up was Ryanair deciding to discontinue flying
>> to the nearest airport.
It was certainly the case that Ryan Air starting a route to an airport created a rise in property building, buying and rentals, and ceasing a route has killed the same market it created.
Now is most certainly NOT the time to consider buying a property in Europe.
|
Thanks for everyone’s input.
I’m in the fortunate position of having seen a fair bit of the world, albeit only in bite size periods, between a week and two months duration. This is one of the few places I could live quite happily...9 visits and counting in 4 years. That and northern CA, although the medical system in the States is a huge deterrent ! The location where I’m thinking of buying is a 75 minute drive north of Alicante, so no worries about future flights. When I stay in the area, and I’ve already rented two places in the first 5 months of next year totalling 10 weeks, I don’t consider it ‘a holiday’, it’s more a case of moving my life over there. I do the stuff I do in the U.K. Walk, explore stuff, a bit of culture, lazy days doing not very much, early doors drinks then staying in several nights a week.
I’m not looking to make any profit on the property. I’m sure I won’t. But I’m buying a home not making an investment. And the potential 4 month summer rental period when I’d return to the U.K. after downsizing, is because I don’t like the summer crowds or the excessive heat. But if you have an asset which can bring in a lot of rental income, and I know two excellent agents who could provide that rental service at a cost of 20%, and don’t mind people staying in your home, then why not?
My local contacts out there, including friends who have a property, tell me that if it’s the Spanish selling then they tend not to reduce the asking price by much. If it’s Dutch, Brits, Germans et al, elderly and wanting an urgent relocation back home, then there are bargains to be had.
I’ll find out next week.
|
Good luck.
If you can, find another similar property next to the one you're considering purchasing and see if you can meet the owners. Ideally you want to find someone already doing what you are thinking to do.
Buying them a lunch in return for a chat would almost certainly be a very good deal.
I doubt you need me to tell you, but the agent will *always* tell you it's a good idea. No skin of his nose if it is not.
|
Good friends of mine, who have a place 1/4 mile from me in the UK, already own a nice villa in the area where I’m looking. They’re integrated into local life, spend at least 6 months of the year out there, and are a huge source of information.
He’s very hands on, can’t keep still and is always busy...needless to say he knows the local builders merchant, decent plumbers and sparkies, and his better half throws great evening soirées and doesn’t hold back on the G & T measures.
|
As you say, buying a home to live in is quite different to buying a rental or investment proposition.
Still, remote renting can be problematic. So I'd really be probing the reality of where these rentals come from, what happens when something goes wrong, what level of wear and tear occurs, what happens if there is a breakage just before someone is due to arrive, what happens if the house becomes uninhabitable (water/electricity/sewage) with renters in it or due etc. etc.
It is in our nature to tell people that what we do is a good idea and often without the details and the downsides.
I guess you can try it and see, and not rent again if you don't like it or it doesn't work out. Which is exactly why I think it is important to buy something you can afford to keep without renting it. Rental income should be a bonus not a survival mechanism.
If you are making a lifestyle choice, and it sounds like you are, then normal commercial considerations are less important. Just take it slow and gentle.
Don't forget to consider the health system, good though it is your access to it may become limited after March. Health insurance, including drugs and repatriation, may become very important.
Investigate Spanish health insurance for the Spanish.
|
p.s. if you do not speak Spanish, start learning. It will make so much difference to your life.
e.g. DIY stores; you'll get a better deal using the ones the Spanish use rather than the ones aimed at Gringos. Not unlike buying beer in Calais.
|
I would check the health care situation very carefully. EHIC does not provide cover for permanent residents in Spain - it is designed fo holidaymakers and visitors. If you are a resident you have to fulfil certain conditions which many Expats do not. Private health insurance is not cheap.
|
Thanks CGN...one more item to discuss with my friends who spend half the year there.
It was the cost of health insurance in the USA that put me off moving there....one of my friends worked for Blue Shield CA ( a health plan provider) until this summer, his wife teaches, so they are covered.
Paying for my own private health insurance in the USA, even getting advice from a friend in the industry, would have been an enormous cost.
Their next door neighbour changed his job several years ago. For the first 28 days in his new job health insurance was not provided by his new employer. For some reason he did not take out interim private health cover. He suffered a heart attack. Had to sell his home to pay the medical bill. My friends were moving at the time so rented out their old home to him and his wife at a peppercorn rent for 2 years until he could save up a deposit on a new house ( my friends truly are angels)
|
Here is a guide to health care in Spain. Basically to receive free health care you need to be employed and paying tax or retired and in receipt of a state pension. Otherwise you need private insurance..
www.expatica.com/new/es/healthcare/general-healthcare/health-insurance-439814/
|
During our 6 week rental earlier this year, a pressurised water valve under the sink broke one Saturday afternoon. We had a flood within minutes.....on tiled floors water flows everywhere very fast!
Fortunately we had a wrench to hand to turn off the valve ( bought at the chinois shop to change gas bottles) but even 10 mins of flowing water made a heck of a mess.
We called the agents mobile and we had a father and son plumber team there within 45 minutes. New flexible hose connectors and valves all round. The following day ( Sunday) the agent called round in person to check if all was ok. She rang to make sure the pool boy had been twice a week, and if it was ok for gardeners to deliver new palm trees as she didn’t want to disturb us if we were busy.
A fantastic agent, incredibly professional and one I’d happily engage to look after a property.
|
Don't get me wrong, this may be the perfect direction for you and it may work out very well indeed. I don't want to put you off, you just need to be careful.
Be careful of rose coloured spectacles and optimism though. Always look on the dark side when considering such a move. The trick is to work out what the worst that could happen is and decide if and how you could live with that.
Once you've got that managed, then you're in good shape.
|
Thanks.
I’m normally the opposite of Brian ( and don’t look on the bright side anyway)
|
|
Good point by NFM. I know you're as fit as a lop LL, but I became aware of a heart problem at the beginning of the year and went downhill very fast. Hopefully I would still have got it sorted had I just migrated to Spain, but it would certainly have added to the stress being away from support networks and dealing with an unfamiliar system. In any event you must make sure you have access to treatment if you need it.
|
|
If we stop having freedom of movement in the EU, will you be able to live in Spain all year round? Isn't that an unknown or do you think it will be easy to get residency post Brexit?
|
>> If we stop having freedom of movement in the EU, will you be able to
>> live in Spain all year round? Isn't that an unknown or do you think it
>> will be easy to get residency post Brexit?
It's an unknown. Historically Spain seemed happy to accept UK expats who were financially self sufficient. EU Freedom of Movement added right to move to seek or take work.
|
Not only is it an unknown, it's not likely to get known any time soon.
All we'll know for sure is the interim/transition arrangements [if any].
How far away are the permanent arrangements? Your guess is as good as mine. 2 years?
|
You both agree with me.... We eventually want a place (preferably Greece) but if for some reason you could not live there all the time for some reason we'd not buy. A big unknown I know but not something I'd rush into assuming it will all be okay.
Spain might even decide to make it more difficult say because of Gibraltar and what they want us to agree to on that.
|
Be aware that when renting out holiday properties you have about 8 weeks a year when they will be full. The rest of the year you might get the odd week.
And in Spain the competition with rental properties is - from what I have seen - huge.
I'm going to stick my neck out and say the only way I would try to make money out of a holiday rental property would be with a Landmark-trust style property (i.e. lots of character) for two within an hour or so drive of London; 3 night minimum rental. That wouldn't do badly. A caravan park would also do well. Otherwise I suspect you're looking at weeks of voids.
|
|
I think you are right on this. Just look on Booking.com for how little you can pay. Indeed I think legacylad goes this route. So possibly low returns if that is the purpose of the property. If we got something it would be for us to holiday now but in the future it would be a permanent home with the UK home rented out. We'd let family and friends use it (probably).
|
8 weeks a year? Not a very popular place then.... the letting/sales agent I’ve used these past four years in Moraira achieves almost year round rentals on their better located properties. I book 12 months in advance otherwise you won’t get your desired property....I’m seeing the agent next week to get a price for an 8/10 week rental February thru April 2020. I’ve got first refusal and there’s a waiting list!
Long term winter rentals, beginning November until end of March are surprisingly good value. A lovely villa, with heated pool ( which admittedly costs extra to heat) 3 bedroomed, 2 bathroomed with stunning long distance views, and a 25/30 min walk to the centre of town is costing us €2150 plus bills ( gas, electric, final clean) 09/02/19 >06/04/19. That’s €13 pppn each (3 of us) and we charge our visitors who use the sofa bed or share a room €100 a week plus food & drinks kitty. That’s cheap holidaying.
|
Absolutely as LL says - good properties in popular places are year round propositions.
I think there is no doubt about how could it can be, given location and property, the concern is what happens if something goes wrong.
I have a friend here who rents out properties to tourists. He has half a dozen and is pretty much fully booked year round. His advantage is that he lives here so if something goes wrong he can pop around to fix it.
Obviously a reliable local agent can manage that situation for you. Otherwise nobody would ever do it.
It just wants setting up correctly with the right expectations and mechanisms in place.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 17 Sep 18 at 18:22
|
But what might happen to prices of properties as a result of Brexit - here and in the EU. Another unknown. And by the time legacylad is ready to buy what will the exchange rate be.
I am hoping it goes well and we don't drop off the edge of the Brexit cliff from a personal persecutive and a country perspective.
|
>>8 weeks a year? Not a very popular place then
Obviously not. I stand corrected. But I'm not going to tell you where I go in case other people like staying off the beaten track. ;)
|
Not sure if this has been talked about but I heard mentioned of the potential changes to mobile data roaming charges post Brexit.
I only remembered about this because I've been down visiting IL's at Folkestone last week and a trip to the WW2 Fan Bay Deep shelter at Dover meant I received several texts from EE saying I was in France and giving me details of the charges.
From what I've heard only two companies have given assurances that they will continue with the current EU setup for data roaming (I think it was Vodaphone and Three?) , I guess that means the others could revert back to the old way of charging for calls/data when in Europe.
Definite step backwards if they do.
|
>> From what I've heard only two companies have given assurances that they will continue with
>> the current EU setup for data roaming (I think it was Vodaphone and Three?) ,
Nope, none of the UK networks have given an guaranteed assurance they will continue with the current roaming agreement. They cant because it obviously depends on the rest of the EU providers, and they ALL have to agree.
|
>>and they ALL have to agree.
And I cannot think why they would do that.
|
Let us consider what that linked document actually says....
>>the government would legislate to....
>>The government would also legislate....
>> subject to parliamentary approval
So actually hasn't. Has not even begun the process. A process which will require Ofcom to take input from all involved parties.
And even if they carry out their plans, and they are quick enough to get it done in time, will only cap a monthly AUTOMATIC surcharge at £45/e50.
Thus when you hit the £50 cap the Operator will switch off your international roaming access and you will have to pay to have it switched on again for that billing period.
And they could decide that you hit that cap after 30 seconds. There is nothing to say that they must continue to supply minutes/bytes at the same rate as they do now.
If it is enacted it will be a cap on what they may charge by default, it does not say that they must continue to provide the service.
So expect future phone contracts to say "includes upto x minutes / x bytes of data roaming after which roaming will be disabled". And 'x' won't be very big.
>>The availability and pricing of mobile roaming in the EU would be a commercial question for the mobile operators.
As Zero said. A commercial question and entirely up to the operators making agreements or not as they choose.
An extensive traveller may well be better to ditch his UK Cell phone and take an EU phone contract. Not unlike the chaos that reigns in South America. That's why we have dual SIM phones.
Someone who never or rarely travels will be unaffected.
Regular travellers, like say LegacyLad, will be screwed.
>>surcharge-free roaming for UK customers may continue
Indeed. And also it may not. And that is not up to the Government.
Of course, in reality, I don't expect the whole thing to drop off a cliff, but I do expect that over time our international roaming will gradually become more expensive as the operators in the UK adjust their rates on a country only basis.
It is just about conceivable that someone who never travels and does not want any roaming on their phone may actually get a cheaper deal than they do now. It is those that actually roam that will suffer.
For a topical example, should an international truck driver carry his own personal cell phone as well as his company's phone, then I'd expect him to suffer.
As with most of these things, the less/fewer international dealing you have the less you will be impacted by this.
It may well be though that this will become another BEANO event. It would make sense for the exit agreement to exclude mobile communications and the current deal to continue to be enforced. That would be the most sensible of course.
The minor issue with that being that it is an EU agreement and therefore overseen by the ECJ.
If you think that document is assurance, then you have not read it carefully. It is *exactly* a representation of what I have been saying for the last few months;
The sensible way forward is the agreements we already have in place. BEANO.
|
I forgot to include this bit.....
"surcharge-free mobile roaming in the EU may not continue to be standard across every mobile phone package from that point. Roaming may also be offered with different terms and conditions. This might affect the amount of calls that you can make, texts you can send and data you can consume, including applying limits that are less than the amount available in your bundle when you’re in the UK."
The TL:DR version?
"Sorry, out of our control, without the EU, you may be screwed".
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 17 Sep 18 at 15:08
|
I know companies like Vodafone have subsidiaries in different EU countries but if those decide to charge then the UK government cannot actually do anything apart for asking the subsidiary in the UK to cap charges. We will have no say on what happens in the EU will we.
And there might not be any included minutes, texts or data at all. You get charged what the EU telecom company says you should but you're protected from being charged too much but that might mean the phone stops working until either you pay for more or wait until the next billing cycle.
The Brexit paper on this is c**p because it says we will do something as a county - we will not have a say in it if they charge us for using the phone abroad.
Of course the likes of Vodafone might give up this opportunity to make more money. They only included roaming because the EU forced them. But we don't have to be impacted by that deal once we leave so we can pay when we are roaming again. Hoorah.
|
When I visit my friends in the USA, I buy a local SIM for my unlocked phone. The last time, it was either AT & T or Verizon, I paid an additional $10 for 1,000 minutes to U.K. numbers, both landlines and mobiles. There was a time limit on the $10 package, probably 28 days, but it was quite the bargain.
Assuming you have WiFi ( cafes, hotspots, hotels etc) whilst on the EU mainland, presumably you can still Skype, FaceTime or WhatsApp free of charge even if you can no longer use your U.K. providers minutes and data ?
|
>>Assuming you have WiFi ( cafes, hotspots, hotels etc) whilst on the EU mainland, presumably you can still Skype, FaceTime or WhatsApp free of charge even if you can no longer use your U.K. providers minutes and data ?
Yes, absolutely you can. Anywhere in the world. (bit difficult in China)
|
I wonder how many know the emotional, philosophical and practical differences between ECJ, EU, EEA EFTA and ECHR and which ones they can live with being apart of and which they can't?
Because it would not surprise me to see commitment to the ECHR forming part of any deal, and EEA EFTA membership being used to avoid *direct* jurisdiction of the ECJ.
Though I presume that people are aware of the level of oversight the WTO has / will have?
|
>> I wonder how many know the emotional, philosophical and practical differences between ECJ, EU, EEA
>> EFTA and ECHR and which ones they can live with being apart of and which
>> they can't?
Emotional differences are best put aside.
EFTA and EU are complimentary. ECJ decides differences over interpretation of EU directives/rules.
While EU members are (i think) required to have signed up to ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights) and Strasbourg court that decides when it applies the Convention itself is born of the Council of Europe - not the EU.
Brexit will not prevent Convention Rights stopping extraditions of brown people (or effective oulawing of the 'Closed Shop').
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 17 Sep 18 at 22:12
|
>> Emotional differences are best put aside.
Are they? So you don't think the Leave/Remain vote was emotional. Is that not *exactly* the issue?
>> While EU members are (i think) required to have signed up to ECHR (European Convention
>> on Human Rights)
It is a condition for new members, not for existing. However, it is not *only* for EU Members.
>> born of the Council of Europe - not the EU.
Important not to confuse the European Council, Council of the European Union and the Council of Europe.
Not unlike the People's Front of Judea.
>> Brexit will not prevent Convention Rights stopping extraditions of brown people
May was a fan of remaining within the EU but leaving the ECHR. She only dropped it because, in her words, there was "insufficient parliamentary support!". The Tory manifesto includes leaving the ECHR once Brexit is complete. E-Chrexit?. Actually, to be fair, I think they reduced it to "review".
>>EFTA and EU are complimentary
Not sure about that. They don't overlap, if that's what you mean. But if you sign up to the EEA EFTA, would either a remainer or a leaver be happy with that? Given that we would have left the EU?
But philosophically the difference would be?
To be honest though, I wasn't really aiming the question at you. I would expect you to be familiar with them.
|
Oh. Dear. God.
Brexit: Theresa May says it's Chequers or no deal
www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45543609
|
Ah, a TM ultimatum.
Which will be as successful in parliament as "strong and stable" was with the electorate.
|
|
The fact that the EU isn't going to agree the Theresa May deal as it currently is (NI border and freedom of movement for goods only) then it's no deal. Is that the plan?
|
>> The fact that the EU isn't going to agree the Theresa May deal as it
>> currently is (NI border and freedom of movement for goods only) then it's no deal.
>> Is that the plan?
Difficult to see the wood for the trees. Political machinations, mostly within the Tory party add further complications.
We seem, except for Irish Border conundrum, to have 'heads of agreement' on UK's divorce from EU. If those and other details are sorted in next few months then we leave on 29 March 2019 and move into 20 month transition. That is effectively BEANO and is supposed to allow time for the future relationship to be negotiated.
Chequers is about future relationship and, politics aside, surely can be de-coupled from the divorce?
|
|
But if Chequers says we want freedom of movement on goods only then I don't think the EU will agree to the leave agreement. This is what France is worried about - we leave but there is no chance of agreeing to a future relationship based on the Chequers paper.
|
A BBC commissioned opinion poll
www.bbc.com/news/uk-45520517
The main learning from this is that I think most people have little clue what it going on. Not a lot seems to have changed over the last couple of years.
The changes, such as they are, would seem to be too small to be reliable to me.
|
Here's another one from the BBC today...
A report from the Migration Advisory Committee.
www.bbc.com/news/uk-45556246
If you were after limiting immigration and thought that EU immigration was bad for the UK then I shouldn't read it, if I were you.
|
The last two were interesting, more or less. This one is important.
The EU Salzburg Summit. Not that this piece says too much, but the Summit will matter.
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45546610
|
|
Bearing in mind, NoFM, that this country is on its way to hell on a handcart, would you ever consider returning here?
Last edited by: Haywain on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 14:49
|
It's my country, of course I would/will.
Probably not my next stop but certainly my last.
On a phone at a barbecue. Longer answer later if you're interested.
|
>> Bearing in mind, NoFM, that this country is on its way to hell on a
>> handcart, would you ever consider returning here?
>>
In views of your negative views of the future of your own country do you not feel it slightly ironic that you have voted to deprive yourself of the right to live in twenty seven alternative nations?
|
"In views of your negative views of the future of your own country"
I can't say I'm too positive about the rest of Europe either.
|
Where are you positive about then?
You are living in a wealthy peaceful country in probably the most prosperous and culturally rich continent on earth. You have free healthcare, a decent pension, the rule of law prevails, the country has been at peace for over70 years. You have a house, a car and no doubt all the possessions you need. You can travel around the world. What exactly are you looking for in life?
|
"What exactly are you looking for in life?"
Similar options/conditions for those who follow on from us.
|
|
But you don't want younger and future generations to have the ability to travel to and live in the other EU countries even though many would have liked to.
|
"But you don't want younger and future generations to have the ability to travel to and live in the other EU countries even though many would have liked to."
You may not believe this but, before the EU came along, people used to travel to and live in other European countries.
|
Of course they did but I am sure you can appreciate the difference between being permitted to travel or reside in a specific country at the discretion of their Goverment and the absolute right to travel work or reside anywhere in Europe.
And you have voted to deprive the next generation of that huge privilege and opportunity but claim to worry about their prospects.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 17:07
|
Well don’t stand in their way then.
As I write this I am on the Greek Island of Lesvos. Over the blue Aegean Sea I can see Turkey about five miles away. You may recall the island as the centre of a huge influx of refugees over the past few years. Indeed they still arrive although in much reduced numbers. Many have risked their lives and that of their children to get here. Many drowned just a mile or two from here.They have mostly lost everything they had and over 10,000 are stuck here in refugee camp in the most miserable of conditions. Most of them can only dream of the opportunities that are taken for granted by us in the U.K.
I suppose it is human nature to complain about what we don’t have and ignore that which we have but it is sometimes good to consider just how lucky we and our families are.
|
>> As I write this I am on the Greek Island of Lesvos
One of the places we have considered buying a place CGNorwich. Thankfully not done it yet - never saw Brexit coming.
Whereabouts are you staying out of interest? I hope you have a car for exploring this wonderful island. When you say you can see Turkey I assume it's either Molyvos, Petra or Anaxos.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 17:20
|
Yes rtj70 Lesvos is a beautiful island. Staying in Molyvos in the old town in a house just nelow the castle so the views are wonderful.
Have visited here before about ten years ago and pleased to say it has hardy changed although the main roads are a lot better surfaced. Have indeed hired a car, a rattly i10 which as you say is really a necessity here if you want to explore the island -and find the best Ouzo!
|
"As I write this I am on the Greek Island of Lesvos."
Yes, CG, I'm sure we can all relate to your predicament, I was on Rhodes several years ago when the first boats were arriving. Can I just offer you a few tips - don't stay out in the sun for too long and go steady on the ouzo - otherwise you could become hysterical.
|
>>You are living in a wealthy peaceful country in probably the most prosperous and culturally rich continent on earth. You have free healthcare, a decent pension, the rule of law prevails, the country has been at peace for over70 years. You have a house, a car and no doubt all the possessions you need. You can travel around the world. What exactly are you looking for in life?<<
This, in a nutshell, is a major difference as I see it.
CG may well have all of those benefits but it is hard for anyone who has them to understand just how many of the UK population do not have a decent pension, indeed none at all other than a state pension.
Health care that is no longer fit for the purpose it was designed for and sadly lacking in funding to meet that increase in population.
Live in squalid 6-month rental properties that you can only dream about the conditions they have to put up with.
A car? No, many travel a lot of miles at unearthly hours of the day and night on a pushbike to work all year round, and possessions?
Many have a family they care for as best they can, and that is all the possessions they have grown to expect.
There is a life outside of the cosmopolitan middle class who think this country revolves around their comfortable lifestyle.
The Brexit vote proved they were actually in the majority, and that comfortable lifestyle and coveted possessions will never happen for them until we have change.
Project Fear is doing nothing but compounding their resolve.
Pat
|
How is leaving the EU going to:
- Sort out the pension problem for those without one?
- Solve the problem of 6-month rentals in places that are unfit for living?
- Provide people with cars?
If there's a recession then there's likely to be austerity and those without are going to suffer the most I would imagine. The wealthy ones will get by okay.
I think the problem is some people manage to get good jobs and therefore probably have a half decent pension through their employer. But if someone cannot get a well paid job then they're not going to have a decent pension. Some choose not to work and live on benefits too - so why should the state provide an even bigger pension.
At least those without are looked after by the state when old and unable to look after themselves. Those with savings or property are expected to pay for their own care.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 17:38
|
I'm talking about hard-working people who work longer hours than you will ever have to do.
How is staying in the EU going to solve those problems?
These are problems that have worsened for a certain large sector of this country over the last 40 years, if it hasn't improved in that time it isn't going to without change.
Denying they exist or putting them down to people who don't want to work is not the answer.
Try walking in other's shoes before judging the life they live.
Pat
|
>> How is staying in the EU going to solve those problems?
Solving them requires economic stability, together with action to redistribute wealth and political will and the parliamentary time to legislate for that end.
Brexit uncertainty undermines stability and even if there are the ideas and the will for redistribution there's no political energy or parliamentary time because Brexit is dominating both.
|
>> The Brexit vote proved they were actually in the majority, and that comfortable lifestyle and
>> coveted possessions will never happen for them until we have change.
There were undoubtedly people, perhaps quite a lot of them and almost certainly enough to have swung it for leave, who voted out for that reason. The abject failure of Cameron and his cronies to communicate the message that those people would likely be WORSE off out of the EU is why they should never be permitted to return to politics via the Lords.
Brexit will not bring the change they need.
There were though plenty of comfortably off older people, home owners with index linked pensions and the lot who also voted out. My sister's Father in law was one. He thinks we're ruled from Berlin .....
Plenty of material around 'that' result that will keep psephology PhD students writing for decades.
|
>> The Brexit vote proved they were actually in the majority, and that comfortable lifestyle and coveted possessions will never happen for them until we have change.
Brexit is not going to alter this.
Other than downwards.
Unless you think giving increased power to the upper class bubble in Westminster is a good thing.
|
Two of you have said that Brexit will not change this.
Have you tried putting yourself in the position these people have been in for a lifetime?
Years and years of things getting worse for them and no way of getting anything any better.
Brexit cannot make it worse for those folk, and I'm sorry if it means some with a comfortable lifestyle have to suffer a bit but maybe a few more who complacently didn't bother to vote should have done.
Pat
|
>> Have you tried putting yourself in the position these people have been in for a
>> lifetime?
>>
>> Years and years of things getting worse for them and no way of getting anything
>> any better.
>>
>> Brexit cannot make it worse for those folk
Pat,
I wholly understand the issue.
I speak to people in this position every working day and ask them about their income and housing costs. I deduct their Housing costs from their net Income and think how can you live decently on that. They can't go out like I've just done and spend £60 on a tank of diesel and another £35 on bits and bobs from Aldi.
While they may not think so, and convincing snake oil salesmen like BoJo tell them about £350 million for the NHS and numerous other gains from out the reality is that Brexit can, and almost certainly will, do nothing for them or make their position worse.
How do you think it can improve their lot?
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 18:20
|
>> How do you think it can improve their lot?
It won't. And if there is a recession those with a bit of money to spend will tighten their belts a bit and spend less. Net result is others will suffer and some will lose jobs. Less eating out, less spending in shops, less travel.
Leaving the EU will not fix the problem of those without vs those with lots. And the main ones driving Brexit in the Tory part are rich.
|
>> and convincing snake oil salesmen like BoJo tell them about £350 million for the NHS and numerous other gains from out the reality is that Brexit can<<
I would have expected you of all people Bromp, having close contact with them, would have known that they don't believe that one bit.
Desperation means that anything is better than the reality they have.
Pat
|
Brexit could cost the country jobs - pretty likely. So those without decide to make it worse for others which does not actually help them one bit. Sounds like you're saying they voted so it gets worse for everyone because they don't have much themselves. They should try to get a better job and might need some training to get it.
I've said this before on here... A relative used to have a factory which engineered products. He was always advertising for new employees with the offer of an apprenticeship and qualifications. He never did fill all the posts and had to rely on agency workers.
Move on a few decades and he now part owns a much larger company with hundreds of employees. Still struggles to recruit in the South Wales factory.
Many of these in this Welsh valleys town that are 'without' things they think they deserve all somehow manage to have huge TVs, Sky TV, etc. Funny old world down there.
|
>> Desperation means that anything is better than the reality they have.
Maybe their skills and abilities would find them a job elsewhere in the EU if they cannot find one that pays the bills in the UK.
What sort of skills and jobs are you referring to BTW? I know there are people a lot worse off than myself and I grew up in a Welsh valley town which I'd never go back to and don't have to. I was fortunate and got a good education, got a reasonably well paid job and it came with a decent pension. What stopped some of those you refer to getting on in life? Did they not try hard enough to get an education?? Are they disabled in some way?
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 18:55
|
>>I would have expected you of all people Bromp, having close contact with them, would have known that they don't believe that one bit.
So they deliberately and knowingly voted for something that would make their position worse?
Surely you don't really mean that?
|
>> Desperation means that anything is better than the reality they have.
>>
Unfortunately an acquaintance with history would show the massive error in that idea. That there are people who voted leave as a sort of incoherent protest against the government and what they perceived as an elite I totally accept. Whether they thought through the consequences and whether the were used by mischievous individuals who had motives of their own I have no doubt.
We shall all be poorer as a result of Brexit, indeed we already are. Will the rich suffer? Not very much, probably not at all. Will the lives of those at the bottom improve? Well I think in your heart you really know the answer to that.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 07:30
|
It is very likely to make it worse for those you refer if we leave without any deal at all.
Maybe some of these need to consider a new career/job if the one they have is so bad.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 18:31
|
>> Brexit cannot make it worse for those folk, and I'm sorry if it means some
>> with a comfortable lifestyle have to suffer a bit
Ah I am in the mire so I'll drag you down too.
another great reason to vote Brexit.
Ironically all the pro Brexit politicos wont suffer one bit.
|
>>Ironically all the pro Brexit politicos wont suffer one bit.
Yes, with their new investments in Dublin and the rest of Europe they are likely to be better off and if they don't invest in Europe, they will be able to hoover up assets here much more cheaply.
|
I wonder why these people in poor jobs with poor pay don't get trained to do a different job though. Perhaps Pat has some real examples.
For South Wales the only examples I have are people too lazy to work and think it's easier to be on benefits. And some then complain that the Asian doctors and shop keepers are taking over everything. What they don't think about is they themselves need doctors and they are too thick to have ever tried for that. And the Asian shop keepers work very long hours.
I am not being prejudiced. This is based on what I actually know.
Some I was at school with were very bright and just decided not to try and fool around when we got to the comprehensive school. I got my head down and got good O and then A levels and went to university to better myself to escape south Wales valleys.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 19:37
|
>> I wonder why these people in poor jobs with poor pay don't get trained to
>> do a different job though. Perhaps Pat has some real examples.
Where are the different jobs (or for that matter the training)?
Sure there are a few people too lazy to work and who perhaps thought it would be easier on benefits. There are though plenty more who cannot find the openings to take them out of minimum wage employment where they're dependent on tax credits and housing benefit to cover a basic lifestyle and pay the rent.
Just to test out I did a benefit prediction based on turn2us.org.uk. Made partner, kids and myself all 20yrs younger so late thirties with one child just at school and other aged 3. Assumed full time (40hrs) at my current hourly rate of £10.10 and Mrs B a stay at home Mum. Her previous career as a lab technician offers some work but not enough money to offset childcare. The notional B family rent a 2 bed property in this village at £575pcm which is in Council Tax band C.
We'd get £156.11 a week in benefits of which £34.40 is non means tested Child Benefit. The rest is Child Tax Credit and Housing Benefit. The latter is max I can get as ceiling for area is less than market rent. Could find somewhere cheaper in less salubrious areas of Northampton but that takes us away from friends and, more importantly, support networks.
In those circs I'd bike to work, 7 miles each way, so that Mrs B and kids had use of our ten year old car.
Given my telephone interview skills and knowledge of the benefit system I could probably get better pay contracting to do benefit assessment work. But that would be short term, precarious and probably with periods between jobs, involve extensive travel - probably to London, much more time away from the kids and a bucket load of stress that would affect my Mental Health.
Is that worthwhile?
Compared that with areas where employment is seasonal, living wage plus £1 is a bonus and travel distances are way more than mine I'd be well off.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 20:43
|
As a family of four we got our first car when I was about 6. It was a rusty, smoky old A40 which was ultimately towed and we then managed without until I was about 9.
My Father cycled to work about 18 miles each way until I was 10 working double shifts whenever he could get them. He used a bus he got from the tip. He then upgraded to the bus until I was about 14. My Mother worked from home (typing envelopes) until I was 11, and then she got work outside the home. We became a two car family when I was about 14. Neither car was worth a damn, but at least they worked. Mostly.
Nobody gave my parents anything.
What start I got came from my [uneducated] parents' work and determination. Since then it has been my own.
The difference is these days that people expect life to be handed to them. they believe it is a right.
Well it's not. To be successful is hard work requiring single minded dedication.
And benefits are supposed to be survival level, not luxury level.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 5 Sep 19 at 10:06
|
"To be successful is hard work requiring single minded dedication"
If you want to be the best, if you want to beat the rest, dedications what you need.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 5 Sep 19 at 10:07
|
>> And benefits are supposed to be survival level, not luxury level.
The basic benefits such as job seekers and employment and support allowance are set at exactly that level. Tax credits might sustain a slightly better lifestyle as policy intention was to lift people out of poverty and towards a decent standard of living.
But neither will put people in 'luxury'.
|
So what's the answer - a universal minimum wage for all? But who pays it?
And if you do that, the higher paid will be paid more than those on the new higher minimum and so those now getting better won't be happy because others get more.
The fact is there will always be those only capable of getting paid at the lower end. But even domestic cleaners can get more than minimum wage if they get enough customers. Whether they are all honest and pay NI is another matter.... which might mean they get no full state pension in the future.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 22:23
|
>> The fact is there will always be those only capable of getting paid at the
>> lower end.
Of course there will. And there will be those notionally capable of more but for whom practical issues like childcare or needing local support from parents/friends stop them advancing.
But upthread you seemed to be saying, over several posts, that poverty was down to people's failure to grasp opportunity for education or advancement.
Min wage is an hourly rate. How do cleaners get more than that (or national living wage - NLW) 'if they get enough customers'? You don't beat it by doing 70 hour weeks.
Or to turn it other way, if the punter can get somebody casually at NLW why would they employ anyone else at greater cost?
|
>> Min wage is an hourly rate. How do cleaners get more than that
Because around here they certainly do get more than that. And my cousin in south Wales gets more than £10/hour cleaning houses.
The gardeners typically charges £20/hour. But they have to provide tools, don't get paid moving from job to job, etc.
I still think a lot of people 'in poverty' could make a difference for themselves. Or are you saying we should give them more benefits?
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 23:48
|
>> >> And benefits are supposed to be survival level, not luxury level.
>>
>> The basic benefits such as job seekers and employment and support allowance are set at
>> exactly that level. Tax credits might sustain a slightly better lifestyle as policy intention was
>> to lift people out of poverty and towards a decent standard of living.
>>
>> But neither will put people in 'luxury'.
It does seem reasonable for in-work benefits to put people who work in a better position than those who can but don't.
The unwanted side effect is to subsidise employers who pay low wages.
|
>>Brexit cannot make it worse for those folk
Yes. Yes it can. Check out where EU funding is spent.
Your reason for voting Brexit is envy of the more well off, and because it will mean a better future for the country's poor?
Lolz.
|
I can now see that some might have voted for Brexit because it will hit the more well off. It will hit the poorer people first.
If it looks like house prices are going to slide and you're a landlord - sell now. People could need to be looking for somewhere else to live.
Anyone remember an interview with someone in a south Wales town where the EU had helped build a new sixth form and training college, next to its new leisure centre, a few hundred yards away from a new train station. And the road there had been upgraded with EU funding. The young lad was claiming the EU had done nothing for them.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale
He then says: “Well, I know … they built all this,†he says, and motions his head at the impressive facilities that are all around us. “But we put in more money than we get out, don’t we?â€
Turkeys voting for Christmas springs to mind. Wales will not get as much funding from Whitehall.
At least BMW are being clever with the 1 month shutdown of MINI production in April 2019.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 00:47
|
>>At least BMW are being clever with the 1 month shutdown of MINI production in April 2019.
Scarcely. That is a purely political stunt. It's not as though April 2019 is the best time to shut the works, it's because it makes a political point - on the back of the fact that BMW's MINIs are being overproduced. There's a glut in car manufacturing at the moment, it seems, so what better thing to do than to blame your inability to sell your overproduction/manage your production/insert own failing on Brexit.
Brexit is a very convenient excuse for many businesses. That's not to say that it's a good idea...
Though I have yet to meet anybody who would say that they would vote to join the EU if we were outside it.
|
>> The Brexit vote proved they were actually in the majority, and that comfortable lifestyle
>> and coveted possessions will never happen for them until we have change.
I don't quite understand this. Are you saying that the fact that the vote was for Leave was because people living in "squalid 6-month rental properties", that "travel a lot of miles at unearthly hours of the day" and are "without a decent pension" over an above the State Pension are in the majority and all voted Brexit?
I mean, it doesn't seem likely but even if it were accurate, did they do so because they saw the EU as the source of all their issues and that leaving the EU would make their position better?
And if you believe that they are the reason the vote was for Brexit does that mean that in your mind everybody not in that position voted Remain?
If that is so. and I doubt it, how did they think that voting Leave would improve their position? The most optimistic economic forecast I have seen say that leaving will be no worse. I have not seen a single credible forecast which indicates and improvement.
Truly, I don't think you could even write this if you understood how the economics worked. I am more than happy to try to explain it to you, if you promise to listen and try to understand.
Beyond our differing opinions and desires for the future, I just don't think you grasp the issues.
>> Project Fear is doing nothing but compounding their resolve.
What actually is Project Fear? Do you mean anything which presents bad things you don't like and it's easier to pretend that they're not true? Or can you point to any part of your apocryphal Project Fear which threatens something unlikely to actually occur?
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 20:02
|
Pat will now disappear under her rock for a bit with regards Brexit and not respond to any of our questions.
How leaving the EU will give the work shy lazy people the luxuries they think they deserve is beyond me. They need to get a better job and work. It's not as if you need a PhD to drive for a living for example.
Why does someone who decided not to better themselves education wise think they should have the same as someone who studied for 7 years at university to be a doctor and then had to work VERY long hours in house man roles, etc.? Or earn as much as a barrister - say £250k pa.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 18 Sep 18 at 20:19
|
|
Some at work with us (IT) started as engineers without degrees. A few I know (so there will be more) are in very senior management positions and worked their way up. We had apprenticeships a few years ago, something Rattle could have done but it involved driving a lot so no good for him.
|
Not project fear, project reality:
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bmw-car-plant-brexit-day-29-oxford-jobs-factory-a8542996.html
My recent experience of a CNC machine supplier client of mine, quoted about 10% below the competition with support from their suppliers who want them to stay in business but lost the £500k deal because the customer was concerned about support and supply of spares after March 19.
Medium engineering company on my books is doing well at the moment. They have shifted production to a wholly owned subsidiary in India so are saving a fortune on labour costs. India and the EU are working on a free trade agreement. Indian directors so profits won't necessarily be repatriated here.
|
'Rattle'
Now there's a blast from the past.
Whatever happened to him?
|
>> Pat will now disappear under her rock for a bit with regards Brexit and not
>> respond to any of our questions.
....and the reason for that is this
>>truly, I don't think you could even write this if you understood how the economics worked. I am more than happy to try to explain it to you, if you promise to listen and try to understand.<<
Have a good discussion.
Pat
|
>> You have a house, a car
The way house price is going up, what is the chance that our next generation would be able to afford a house?
UK does not prevent foreigners from buying properties. A lot of houses in North East are snapped by Asian buyers (as investments). These people need visas to come to UK yet they can buy properties! Newspapers report only London properties are snapped by foreign buyers but it is happening outside London too.
>> You have free healthcare
Not exactly free, have to pay NI for that, to get an appointment in my local surgery now 14-21 days waiting list.
>> the rule of law prevails
Seen the crime rates in London lately? UK is not that crime free as one thinks. In fact, when compared against like for like population, UK's crime rate is almost at par with India's.
>> decent pension
for how long? As population increases, the pension for old people would diminish gradually. Don't be surprised if pension age increased to 80 in near future.
Yes, UK is still better than most of the countries in the world. But that does not guarantee that it will be same in future.
>> But you don't want younger and future generations to have the ability to travel to and live in the other EU countries even though many would have liked to.
Why do we need to be in EU for that? Millions of people from India, China etc come and live in EU, USA, Australia etc. A skilled person will always be able to work and live anywhere in the world.
I would say that people in the EU are now nervous that without the protection from EU freedom of movement, they have to compete with people in the wider world.
Lastly I think UK's situation is bit different from other EU countries. This is because we speak English here! All other EU nations (except Ireland, may be) is somewhat protected as language act as a huge barrier for outsiders to come and settle there. Where as in UK, as half of world can speak English, this is an encouragement to come and settle in UK (this is reason why I chose to settle in UK and not in any other EU countries).
|
You conveniently forgot to mention why you decided to resettle in the first place
|
>>why I chose to settle in UK and not in any other EU countries).
So are you part of the reason that people voted leave, coming over here, taking British peoples jobs, forcing wages down and keeping house prices up?
Or doesn't that count because we are not allowed to comment on certain religions or races without being called racist, whilst it's OK to rail against Polish and Czechs 'cause they're white?
Last edited by: Driver on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 12:24
|
>> So are you part of the reason that people voted leave, coming over here, taking British peoples jobs, forcing wages down and keeping house prices up?
Again attacking the messenger than the message.
House prices are up because people consider it as investment and savings a/c paying pittance. People from outside UK buying houses in UK is not the problem. It is law that is allowing to make it happen is the problem.
Me coming here is not the problem - it is the law which allowed me to come here - is the problem.
After 2011, the law made it much harder for non-EU nationals settle in UK. But there is no such contol on EU migrants. Skilled non-EU migration peaked between 2001 and 2011.
It was you guys who elected a government who allowed people like to me to come here :-)
Once I taken British citizenship, I don't consider myself outsider. So, I vote based on what I felt based for UK's future.
>> coming over here, taking British peoples jobs, forcing wages down and keeping house prices up
Now same thing is happening because of EU migration. Govt has control over non-EU migration. It is like driving a car with a brake. If govt. decides not to press the brake pedal that's a different issue. For EU migration, there is no brake in the car. The migration is all about having a brake (not necessarily pressing it because you can only press when you have the pedal).
|
Immigration condensed into 3 minutes...
youtu.be/ZQQgb5hXQGU
|
I agree, you coming here is not a problem. I think everyone who is capable of supporting themselves should be welcome.
Trying to yank up the drawbridge behind you is a bit scummy though.
I assume you know that EU migration paid far far more in taxes and NI than they cost in any way, including benefits.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 15:24
|
>> Trying to yank up the drawbridge behind you is a bit scummy though.
As is emigrating to a country that is in the EU and then moaning about it. Its like moving to Spain and then moaning its full of Spanish people.
|
He wanted to move to an EU country and chose the UK simply because he spoke the language. He might have gone to say Germany and therefore remained in the EU. He's lucky he came here and voted the way he did.
May looks like she'll get told later (in person) to go away and rethink the NI solution and what sort of trading relationship we want. She's clearly ignoring the EU so far when they say we cannot have just freedom of movement for goods.
Our proposal is like a stuck record. Then time will run out and we either leave abruptly, fudge it or extend the deadline if we can.
|
>>May looks like she'll get told later (in person) to go away and rethink the NI solution
Border, or freedom of movement and trade.
If she blinks first we get fudge/BEANO.
If she puts a border between Ulster and rUK her DUP mates will dump her and she will lose a general election.
If a border goes up between Ulster and Republic we crash out.
EU are masters of extending deadlines though - they may just stretch it out until the UK gets a government of a flavour they like, or one capable of making a decision.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 17:31
|
>
>> If a border goes up between Ulster and Republic we crash out.
As much as it would be nice to dump NI onto some other poor schmuck, an EU mandated and enforced border between the UK and NI is politically and constitutionally 100% unacceptable as it would be in any EU country given similar circumstances.
If we crash out with no deal, a border is reinstated between Eire and NI as a matter of course. Based on that and as its an EU red line not to be crossed, its not up to the UK to resolve the border issue, its an EU responsibility.
Its very simple. Deal, no border. No deal - border.
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 17:44
|
>>its not up to the UK to resolve the border issue, its an EU responsibility.
>> Its very simple. Deal, no border. No deal - border.
Absolutely.
NI/Eire is her strongest card in this whole affair.
Barnier is no idiot, he must know this.
|
>>Once I taken British citizenship, I don't consider myself outsider. So, I vote based on what I felt based for UK's future.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-workers-uk-tax-treasury-brexit-migrants-british-citizens-a8542506.html
Summary: EU Immigrants contribute £2,300 more tax than the average. Non -European migrants contributed £800 less than the average. UK -born adults contributed £70 less than the average.
I know who I would prefer to stay.
When the EU lot go, expect the tax take to fall. Something has got to make up the difference and that's either more austerity or tax rises.
Last edited by: Driver on Wed 19 Sep 18 at 18:10
|
>>I know who I would prefer to stay.<<
I would prefer that they are all allowed to stay if they are already here regardless of nationality or colour.
Pat
|
>>how the economics worked. I am more than happy to try to explain it to you
Since you have lost a pupil, NoFM2R, I would like to apply for the post, since a rundown would be very useful at this stage.
|
|
Jappy to help. Camping with only a phone, not a proper keyboard, so it'll have to wait a day or two though.
|
Brexit Discussion - Volume 56. - Bromptonaut
