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Stockpile Brexit discussions here.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 2 Sep 18 at 19:47
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There is a lot of talk of project fear, especially with the publication of the documents outlining issues that may arise from a "no deal".
There are real issues around. I have been working with an consumer goods importer and exporter this week they have no idea of what steps they need to take to protect their business and 200+ employees because they don't know what form of Brexit is going to come about. They don't want to spend too much money on import / export software at the moment as they don't know if they will need it. At the same time they don't want to contract with a freight forwarder to do it either as this will cost if it's eventually not needed. They are worried about their duty deferment account as they expect with WTO rules, they would need HMRC to increase the limit to £5m. HMRC have not replied to any communications.
A pharmaceutical company we are working with has been told to hold 6 weeks extra stock. They just can't get hold of enough of some products. Some don't have the shelf life and prices are up about 8% because of the sudden demand. The cost to their cash flow is huge. They sell about £200m a year. Profits are fine at about £1m. They have to find about £25m for the extra stock with no help and before price rises. Their cashflow just doesn't support it at the moment.
Of course it's all project fear - my backside!
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 11 Sep 19 at 10:30
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If companies don't spend money and prepare for the worst outcome they will be impacted and leaving it too late may be really bad for them. Spend the money will be bad too and might not be needed. Rock and hard place.
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It's good to hear some real life examples Zippy as there are some here (well, at least one) who seem to think that the Govt is just putting the frighteners on us for some unspecified reason.
I realise that your true tales won't change anything for many people, but I think the tabloid-esque "project fear" hype simply serves to further set them against "the Establishment", thereby entrenching them even more firmly in their position, and in their own mind giving them an even greater conviction that the Leave vote was the right thing to have done.
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What about the Sperm shortage - Most of out imported sperm comes (!) from Denmark. Mind you I thought we had plenty of home grown, well...er...you know, insert your own word.
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>> It's good to hear some real life examples Zippy as there are some here (well,
>> at least one) who seem to think that the Govt is just putting the frighteners
>> on us for some unspecified reason.
>>
>> I realise that your true tales won't change anything for many people, but I think
>> the tabloid-esque "project fear" hype simply serves to further set them against "the Establishment", thereby
>> entrenching them even more firmly in their position, and in their own mind giving them
>> an even greater conviction that the Leave vote was the right thing to have done.
>>
This pharma company is only one business that needs to find £25m. Imagine how many others are out there. This £25m will need to be borrowed. Restricting the company's investment in other areas.
It will also tie up money from the banks who only have so much to lend.
This after years of being told to be lean with just in time supplies because no one wants cash tied up in stock.
Forgot to add the extra warehousing room and warehouse staff costs.
On my small portfolio of 100 or so SME businesses, there are some real concerns and we are doing all we can to help them fund the changes they might need.
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>> (well, at least one) <<
At the very least have the courage of your convictions Smokie and just say Pat.
Or not say it at all.
Pat
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You spend your whole time just looking for a fight, don't you. Is this just grandstanding to show off to your little crowd?
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I did type a response earlier to Pat but lost it (the post, not my temper!!! :-) )
It was along the lines of while my original post was inspired by you Pat, it wasn't about you personally, not was it trying to have a pop at you. So I decided to not even refer to you. But once again you steam in at me, all guns blazing. I think it's you with the mental health conditions, not the Remainers as you said the other day (or at least, linked to he Express) :-)
Just to re-iterate it (though CGNs subsequent post was along not-dissimilar lines) I was musing about how the Project Fear label might tend to entrench some who do not look much further than the tabloids for their info. It is a really divisive concept and term, made to sound clever. With such vast audiences, it really can be game changing to have the support of a tabloid or two. Trump might sometimes have a point when he talks about fake news.
OTOH there are many Leave voters who can eloquently present their own thought-through reasoning as to why Leave is the way forward rather than just regurgitating bits from their favourite redtop.
As an addendum...I sometimes wonder if tabloid journos make stuff up just to see whether they can force a particularly idiotic phrase or concept into everyday talk, just for a laugh. Like those games where one tries to use grand sounding words (or stupid ones) in a business meeting, or even in Parliament as per Penny Morduant when she lost a bet
www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvLcYUXBBuc
Project Fear could qualify
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 26 Aug 18 at 08:54
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Pat, or indeed anyone else who believe that the publication by the government of the possible consequences and effects of abruptly leaving the EU next March without a transition period is simply “Project Fear†could answer the following:
Do you believe that there is a real possibility of leaving the EU without a deal as many leavers and remainers believe?
Do you think that there would be no consequences and the Governmnet report is a load of lies?
If on the other hand you believe that there will be consequences is it not the Government’ duty to warn us?
Would they not be negligent if there are consequences and they failed to warn us?
An answer to the above would be very helpful in understanding your apparent viewpoint.
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Of course the UK will be ok if leaving without a deal with the EU. The only nation on the planet without a trade deal with any other country. Of course we'll be fine. Nothing to fear at all.
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And don't forget we will have no agreed tariffs with the WTO. To get these agreed we only need all members of the WTO to agree to them - just over 160 I think. So I can't see what the problem is either.
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Dave, you asked what "Project Fear" is...
It is a shorthand description for any concerns raised about the future which are outside the capabilities of the socially challenged to either understand, explain or address.
Rather than addressing, understanding and making smart decisions about a subject it is easy for many of the more challenged amongst us to deny it#s existence, label it, and thrust their heads further into the sand.
Trouble is, that leaves their butts sticking up in the air, and you know what they are at risk of then?
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>> the socially challenged
>>
You'll have to explain that expression please.
I presume it means more than simply "people you don't agree with" ?
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>> >> the socially challenged
>> >>
>>
>> You'll have to explain that expression please.
>> I presume it means more than simply "people you don't agree with" ?
>>
how about socially and intellectually challenged
does that make it clearer?
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>>
>> how about socially and intellectually challenged
>>
>>
>> does that make it clearer?
>>
I get the second part - that obviously just means thick.
But socially challenged?
Anti-social?
Asocial, if there is such a word?
Sociopath?
Autistic?
Adding -challenged to an attribute usually means drawing attention to some disability or shortcoming, with more than a hint of contempt or fun-poking at someone's shortcoming.
But I can't extract any meaning to the expression as applied to "socially".
Hence my question - it just appears to be a bit of meaningless verbiage, but perhaps I'm wrong?
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"it just appears to be a bit of meaningless verbiage, but perhaps I'm wrong?"
I think it means e.g. people who micturate in the swimming pool or break wind at the dinner table.
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>>"micturate"
Had to google that; turned out my first guess was wrong.
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I guess you'll have to choose between working out what I mean or dismissing my post as nonsense.
Though how well that will suit any agenda you may have I could not say.
I cannot think why you might believe I *have* to explain anything. Perhaps you misunderstand your position.
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>> I cannot think why you might believe I *have* to explain anything. Perhaps you misunderstand
>> your position.
>>
In life we generally have to make ourselves understood if we want people to listen to us and take us seriously. If you are not bothered then neither am I.
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>> If you are not bothered then neither am I.
Excellent. Let's stick with that going forward.
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I see that the British Horseracing Authority is saying that Irish horses might not be able to travel here for the Grand National if there is no deal.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45301966
What a good thing, we don't want all those foreign horses coming over and taking our prizes anyway do we? :-)
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There'll be a few long faces.......
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Neigh, neigh and thrice neigh...
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Does anyone care about the Grand National any more?
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www.randoxhealthgrandnational.co.uk/record-grand-opening-day-crowd-at-aintree/#9Yz0UBYJWXYAeL7j.97
And from Wikipedia "As the Grand National is accorded the status of an event of national interest in the United Kingdom and is listed on the Ofcom Code on Sports and Other Listed and Designated Events, it must be shown on free-to-air terrestrial television in the UK. "
So it seems some might care...
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>> www.randoxhealthgrandnational.co.uk/record-grand-opening-day-crowd-at-aintree/#9Yz0UBYJWXYAeL7j.97
Fake news, in 1937 300,000 packed into and around the course to watch it. Special trains used to run, a special track and station was in place. Not any more.
At work how many people now run sweepstakes? always used to, dont any more. Who used to pop down the bookies to put a bet on? loads, dont any more. How many people used to stay in to watch the national? dont any more.
Its an event of falling significance.
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Many traditional events are no longer as popular, not least as people have more choice these days. Many attendees would have been there for reasons other than racing, but there is still a not-inconsiderable following here and around the world.
I think you'd find that more money than ever is staked on the national, but it's all done online rather than in those glorfied amusement arcades called bookies. Whichever way you look at it, it is still a major event.
Anyway, how does that have anything to do with BRXIT? This is the place for arguments about BREXIT, not horse racing!! :-)
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Brexit made a lot of the early running but is rapidly fading as it comes up to the last fence.
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And todays runners are
Hard Brexit 1-7
Soft Brexit 2.1
Project Fear 3-1
Remoaner 1-2
2nd Referendum 4-1
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My prediction:
Winner will be Hard Brexit,
Non runners - 2nd referendum, Jezzer
Fallers - Bojo and Davies
Struggled all the way and eventually put down after the race - Saint Theresa
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I’ll have a fiver on Soft Brexit in a double with Jeremy Hunt for next PM
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>> I’ll have a fiver on Soft Brexit in a double with Jeremy Hunt for next
>> PM
Hunt would probably win the MP ballot but if he was up against JR-M in the members' vote......
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JR-M’s views on social issues like abortion and gay marriage likely to put off many. When it comes to the crunch I don’t think many see him as a serious candidate.
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JR-M comes across as a stuck up posh knob* That type dont poll well with the electorate.
*he is of course a stuck up posh knob, so that's unsurprising.
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>> JR-M comes across as a stuck up posh knob* That type dont poll well with
>> the electorate.
>>
>>
>> *he is of course a stuck up posh knob, so that's unsurprising.
>>
He is the proof that time machines and worm holes exist in the UK current time and space.
As grand daughter put it, born in 1880 living in 1920, but appearing today.
Love to be a fly on the wall if he ever met Trump.
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>> JR-M’s views on social issues like abortion and gay marriage likely to put off many.
>> When it comes to the crunch I don’t think many see him as a serious
>> candidate.
Your final sentence nay well be right and see him, should he stand, eliminated in the MP's ballots. He could however get through as second as Andrea Leadsom did in 2016. His views on gay marriage etc are likely to have serious appeal to the 125,000 or so predominantly older and socially conservative folks who are paid up members of the Tory party. His line on EU will also ring for them.
Had she gone the distance Leadsom could possibly have won the Members vote even though she was less popular with those she'd actually have to lead.
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I’m not so sure. Lots of women members and even if he does have an appeal to some members I’m not sure he majority will see him as vote winner at elections and when it comes down to it that’s what they are looking for.
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>> I’m not sure he majority will see him as vote winner at elections and when it comes down to it that’s what they are looking for.
I'm not sure I think that the majority thought that of Corbyn when the Labour party were choosing. Or with the Milliband brothers.
Different approach though, I guess.
Still, never underestimate the ability of the members to repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot.
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>> Still, never underestimate the ability of the members to repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot.
Indeed. They elected IDS for goodness sake.
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>>Indeed. They elected IDS for goodness sake.
The list of bad choices by all political parties is endless. There`s been comparatively few good choices, when you think about it.
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>> Still, never underestimate the ability of the members to repeatedly shoot themselves in the foot.
And never underestimate the affection, trust and confidence that a toff, especially a seemingly eccentric one, can inspire in a large section of the electorate. JRM on a roll has star quality. See Boris.
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150,000 watch it at Aintree 600,000,000watch it on TV around the world and a good proportion of the nation either has a bet on the race or participates in some sort of sweepstake so the answer is “Yesâ€
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Sun 26 Aug 18 at 10:50
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Anybody who follows Rees-Mogg's foolish assertions about the Irish border and how Brexit will mean little change on the island of Ireland and between that island and GB should take half an hour to listen to this lecture from a former Irish Ambassador to UK:
www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&time_continue=97&v=dmjTPr8j5p4
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sun 26 Aug 18 at 17:44
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>>Anybody who follows Rees-Mogg's foolish assertions about the Irish border....
…..is in possession of neither the wit or the intelligence to understand the implications of that lecture.
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He clearly does not understand the differences between border checks for imports/export and the security checks we did because of the terrorist problems in Ireland/ROI.
I've called him stupid before - he might be intelligent but he clearly has no common sense or understanding of the issues we face.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Sun 26 Aug 18 at 18:49
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Comeback Maggie and Major; a phrase that I never though I would say, but they are more liberal than the current lot.
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>> Comeback Maggie and Major; a phrase that I never though I would say, but they
>> are more liberal than the current lot.
Thinking back Major was one of the best PM's of my lifetime. Early Blair too, before he blotted his copybook over Iraq and rightward drift.
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>>they
>> are more liberal than the current lot.
And that includes the disgrace Corbyn.
>>Early Blair
I think I was wealthier then, with 2 kids at school, then I am now, despite taking earning significantly more now.
It seems that quantitative easing, less than inflation pay rises and general austerity have had an impact on my standards of living.
Last edited by: zippy on Mon 27 Aug 18 at 14:58
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I can't make up my mind whether this is Project Fear or simply worth the cost.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45286989
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"I can't make up my mind "
It's the BBC ........... so it will be Project Fear.
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The man is paranoid.
First it's the fake news on TV and in the press.
Now it's fake search results on Google et al.
Just like all despots, he thinks everyone is out to get him.
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What Trump has got away with, and continues to get away with, from the u-turns on big policy decisions, to the tantrums, rants and Twitter spats, and the complete disregard for diplomacy, is quite simply staggering. He will go on record and tell a complete whopper of a lie about someone or something, and then move on with complete impunity, repeatedly dodging and ignoring the comeback or consequences that would have brought down many other politicians. And he is doing this because he has proven time and time again that he can.
Everyone said he'd be gone by now, and he's not. Everyone knows the Democrats and their supporters have no answer to him beyond hurling insults and acting like kids. The latest impeachment rumblings will come to nothing, just as they came to nothing before. Trump is completely untouchable, and he knows it.
It's only the fact he's such a blatant liar that stops me having a little bit of respect for the guy.
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And so it continues.....
www.bbc.com/news/business-45351288
Probably just a Project Fear rumour, I'm sure.
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Clearly a plan to perhaps do something, which goes little further than saying it would be a good idea and portraying an aspiration, far outweighs a currently productive and revenue generating employer. Especially coming from a man whose main objection to the EU was protecting his main product.
Could you please go back to ignoring me? Your ignorance offends me.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Thu 30 Aug 18 at 18:57
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Where does Dyson make their vacuum cleaners? And where would they make cars?
I am pretty sure they used to manufacture at Malmesbury, Wiltshire and then moved to Malaysia.
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>>
Could you please go back to ignoring me? Your ignorance offends me.<<
On the contrary, your arrogance amuses me.
Must be karma.
Pat
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Dyson blotted his copybook when he moved manufacturing of his cleaners to the Far East, resulting in jobs being lost in the UK.
He is already paying import duty and his main German competitors are not, so he sees a hard Brexit of a way of levelling the playing field.
Further, the Germans are better at lobbying the EU then we are and were the ones for the lower power, equivalent suction model that our newspapers ridiculed.
Expect the first few vehicles to be made here, then when volumes are up, they will be made abroad as well.
As for Pat's views, I disagree with them, but she is entitled to them. This is a public forum where all views are surely welcome, even if they may seem entrenched or wrong to you. This forum would be worse place if everyone agreed.
If you spoke to someone in a pub like that you would probably be decked! If you don't like the conversation, don't join in.
Last edited by: zippy on Thu 30 Aug 18 at 19:56
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If you think this thread is suddenly a bit lighter, you'd be correct. I've just removed a petty argument. I don't think anything of importance got removed along with it.
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Panasonic have also hinted they could move manufacturing from Cardiff to somewhere in the EU. Which will be good for the people of South Wales who voted for Brexit. A bit like the fisherman who voted to leave but now realise without a trade agreement there is a risk they will be out of business within 4 weeks and moving fresh shell fish to their main export market (the EU) might be more difficult.
Happy days.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Thu 30 Aug 18 at 19:47
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>> Panasonic have also hinted they could move manufacturing from Cardiff to somewhere in the EU.
They're moving their headquarters to Amsterdam.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288
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And they might also close the production facility in Cardiff.
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In the event of a no-deal Brexit, or a withdrawal from the customs union, it will make no commercial sense to manufacture anything destined for EU markets in the UK. What's more, given the ongoing uncertainty, it can't be a shock that most affected companies are making (and in some cases executing) plans to move jobs elsewhere. It would be careless in the extreme to 'wait and see'.
It will also make no sense to have a European HQ located here, or anywhere else outside the European Union. I spent 12 years working in EHQs for two large global companies, and without the free movement of people and goods between the host country, and all the other European Union countries, these organisations simply cannot function. It wasn't unheard of to have to jump on a plane to Germany or France at few hours notice because something had hit the fan or needed to be covered. Likewise, people would descend from multiple countries into London on a daily basis. No arrangement that isn't free movement would be anything other than additional cost and inconvenience. If by locating in Amsterdam you could have free movement of your people between 27 countries and special arrangements for one, or London you'd need special arrangements for 27, and free movement for one, what would you do?
Of course the final deal might not involve any hassle or difficulty, but the point is, nobody knows at this time, and the risk of no deal seems to be growing by the day. Businesses need to plan.
This isn't Project Fear, it's common sense, and was entirely predictable from day one.
Last edited by: DP on Fri 31 Aug 18 at 12:00
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>>This isn't Project Fear, it's common sense, and was entirely predictable from day one.
Absolutely.
Which do you prefer;
Jeremiah 5.21: "Hear now this, O foolish people, and without understanding; which have eyes, and see not; which have ears, and hear not"
Or...
John Heywood 1546: "There are none so blind as those who will not see. The most deluded people are those who choose to ignore what they already know"
My point being, of course it's obvious. It's so obviously true that there is no counter argument. So people who don't want it to be true have a problem. They resolve this by putting their fingers in their ears and saying loudly "la la la I can't hear you la la la".
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>> In the event of a no-deal Brexit
Politicans won't allow a no-deal situation to happen. There will be some last minute "break thru". Both sides will claim that they have won.
EU will offer some leniency on issues like customs, Ireland border in return for continued Freedom of Movement (or under some different names but same model).
Leave voters will be upset as we'd be still in EU effectively.
Remain voters will question what the reason behind all these Brexit farce.
Farage will be back demanding true Brexit. Conservative and Labour parties might split between pro and anti Brexit. May may not survive beyond next May.
House price won't fall, we shall still visit Europe without visa, people will still fight here whether Brexit was good or bad.
:o)
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>> There will be some last minute "break thru". Both sides will claim that they have won.
But any deal cannot be last minute because it needs to be voted on by the UK parliament and also agreed with 27 other EU countries. So the 'deal' needs to be agreed very soon between the UK and the EU negotiators or it cannot happen in time for March 29th 2019 - or we delay Article 50 triggering if they let us.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 31 Aug 18 at 16:52
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>> Politicans won't allow a no-deal situation to happen. There will be some last minute "break
>> thru". Both sides will claim that they have won.
>>
>> EU will offer some leniency on issues like customs, Ireland border in return for continued
>> Freedom of Movement (or under some different names but same model).
>>
Didn't I say something similar here, around the time you tried to shut down the whole Brexit discussions because you didn't like the way they were going?
www.car4play.com/forum/post/index.htm?t=25964&m=571417&v=e
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The current Brexit negotiations are said to be 80% agree but one part that is not is the border between ROI and NI. Without that there is no deal. The rest of the negotiations are pointless without a solution for this.
Shouldn't 100% of the effort be concentrated on that for a bit? Or will the UK simply have to accept it has to remain in the single market and customs union making Brexit pointless.
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There are two separate issues;
1) The UK leaving the EU, unless something dramatic happens that is in progress.
2) The UK negotiating a deal to replace and in some way emulate our membership of the EU.
Neither is dependent upon the other.
We are trying to create 2) out of all the things we like about the EU without any of the things we don't like.
The EU believes we should not have the things we like without taking all the things we don't like as well.
The EU needs an agreement. The UK needs it a *lot* more.
Thus we will achieve BEANO. A fair proportion of Leavers will be happy because we will not be members of the EU and that was the extent of what they were capable of understanding anyway.
Some Remainers will be unhappy because we will not be members and that was the extent of their understanding. Though I am not sure that there are very many that fell into that category.
The rest of us will pick up the responsibility for making BEANO work. And the closer that BEANO is to our current membership terms, the more likely it is to work.
More than that, I can see how BEANO might eventually become a reasonable solution, mostly because it will have worked as a catalyst for other reactions and may continue to do so.
And many of the Leavers will walk about trumpeting that they were right all along and that leaving was the right course of action and everybody should have listened to them and they will not have the slightest understanding of what actually happened.
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I nominate this for 1st prize for the most condescending, patronising post of the year.
Remainer = I'm right, and if you disagree you are ignorant and don't understand the issue.
....and you wonder why there is no discussion on this?
Pat
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I truly don't understand how you can talk so much about not talking.
All you ever do is whine, and then when asked a question run away crying "I always ignore certain posters" in your little attention seeking, plaintive way..
Have you ever, even once, managed to answer any question on this subject with a sensible and thought out reply?
No, all you do is turn out the same old emotional tripe which alternates between what a tough trucker you are and how nobody can ever drive you away, through you'll not contribute again because there's no point and then back to whining.
You have never ever added anything of worth to this discussion.
You keep telling us how well you understand things, you proudly boast of your little clique of ex posters who all love you deeply, yet we see nothing productive.
You understand nothing other than Remainer vs Leaver. You understand nothing about the challenges, opportunities, difficulties or interactions that are required. You constantly return to referring to people as one or the other. Are you capable of thinking beyond that?
Because those days are passed. It is no longer a discussion about leaving or not, it is a discussion about how best to manage our leaving. You should try to get your head around that.
You need to put something where your mouth is. Preferably something other than your mouth.
Beyond whining and using thumbs and frownies, what have you got?
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>> I nominate this for 1st prize for the most condescending, patronising post of the year.
For somebody who professes to ignore NoFM2R you're remarkably quick to engage :-P.
I recognise the challenge though becuase for all his rudeness etc he posts stuff that's informed and thought provoking/challenging.
The majority for Brexit was approx 1.2 million. If a mere 700,000 had decided to vote remain we'd have had the opposite outcome.
I'm not saying all Brexiteers are ignorant and didn't understand the issues.
But there were enough who were for them to have made the difference.
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>I recognise the challenge though because for all his rudeness etc he posts stuff that's informed and thought provoking/challenging
I appreciate that.
And I apologise for all my previous rudeness, and for all the rudeness which is yet to come. I get unduly excited, I know. But it is how I am. Which is an explanation, not an excuse nor a request for forgiveness.
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I credit some of these points to someone else but I think they nail the issue regarding another referendum:
What are Brexiteers so worried about!? If they truly believe that the majority of British people want to leave the EU (the people’s vote) then they have nothing to lose. However, one would think the reason they don’t want another is because they fear more people have woken up & smelled the coffee - or the foul stench of lies they have been told, and they will lose the next one.
And if your opinion is that as a democracy we voted and the vote was to leave and that's irreversible it is like saying a family voted on going somewhere on a dream holiday but then realising that the place two years on is now war torn and you’d rather not go there. But hey, you voted so you go regardless the consequences? If you have new information which affects the outcome of a decision - in a democracy you have the right to put in a new vote.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45366390
So pleased we will not have to bow down to Europe on some things in future... I always love the extra hour of kip!!! :-)
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we need a hard Brexit, no deals no rules, no payments - we just leave.
I want the Brexiteers to start paying ASAP for their narrow minded stupidity.
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"we need a hard Brexit, no deals no rules, no payments - we just leave."
Right on, bro!
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No point. They will see no further than "We have left, we have won".
- There are people like;
1) Dyson, entirely self-serving and so he won't care;
2) People who are just on a jingoistic kick, and they don't / can't / won't understand
3) some who understand what's going on and genuinely think that Brexit is the right thing to do and will work as hard as anybody else to try to make the new world work.
4) Some who understand what's going on and genuinely think that Brexit is the wrong thing to do and will work as hard as anybody else to try to make the new world work.
It is a challenge that the first two categories perhaps outweigh the third and fourth, but there you are.
I think the majority of category 3) probably want BEANO anyway, and the majority of Category 4) can live with it.
The disruptive and largely worthless ones are certainly the first two, but they were never going to materially contribute to the county's future other than by virtue of circumstance anyway.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 31 Aug 18 at 21:38
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We can hope it is BEANO and the government don't leave it too late for that. There's still a danger they accidentally mess it up.
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I think you missed the group of poorer citizens who felt that foreign labour was driving down wages and limiting access to jobs.
Of course, some employers advertising for Czech or Polish only speakers didn't help nor did job agencies recruiting solely in Eastern European countries.
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>> I think you missed the group of poorer citizens who felt that foreign labour was
>> driving down wages and limiting access to jobs.
I didn't miss those ones that "felt" that way. However, perhaps they had a point?
If one considers ONS & HMRC figures from 2016 it would appear to be a lot of noise about not very much. There are more workers, but there is also more work.
Whilst Brexit may reduce EU citizens coming here, it is likely to be as much a loss of trade and investment and is it is controlled immigration. Something that is likely to harm the Brits more than the Foreigners. If unemployment rises then EU Immigrants can return to other EU countries to work. UK Nationals cannot.
Unemployment has been falling for the last 6 years from a miserable 85 in 2012 to 4% in 2018. It is now lower than at anytime since 1975.
Not too much signs of the hoards of poor British workers desperately seeking employment then. My limited recent experience around the Oxfordshire/Berkshire area suggests that anybody who wants a job as got one, and the resources left are not great.
Before you leap on your band wagon and tell me how much worse it is in the frozen North or elsewhere, read this.....
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/august2018
Here are some more headline figures for you to consider. They're from the ONS & HMRC from 2015 & 2016, with a couple more uptodate. I have not interpreted them. However, some of them are calculated or estimated by the ONS rather than measured or counted.
EU Citizens account for 6.8% of the UK workforce. Up from 2.6% in 2006.
In the period 2013-2016 700k additional EU workers began work in the UK. In the same time period 1m UK workers started in additional roles. The implication being that new jobs were being created rather than existing jobs being used up by someone else.
Our workforce in 2016 was 28 Million Brits and million Foreign Nationals. Bear in mind that non-EU nationals already have to justify their entrance into the UK and will in any case be unaffected by Brexit.
In the time period 2012 - 2016 EU Citizens paid £2.55 billion more in Income Tax and NI than they received in tax credits or child benefit.
The Office of Budget Responsibility stated that in 2016 the labour contribution from EU Nationals was causing an additional 06.% per year growth in the UK Economy.
The most negative view of the impact on wages suggests that perhaps immigration has had a minor impact in areas such as shops, bars and restaurants, and strangely care workers. This is estimated at less than 1% over the period 2008 - 2016
In 2016 there were 224,000 additional EU workers in the UK. 131,000 of whom were from France, Italy and Spain.
The total number of people from Eastern Europe has remained stable at around 900,000. These days there is a smaller and decreasing gap in disposable income between Poland and the UK which is relevant.
The number of Non-EU foreign workers in 2016 was 1,200,000. This has been stable for years an dis in any case already controlled and unaffected by Brexit.
In 2015 1.2 million Brits lived in other EU countries.
In 2016 155,000 Brits were performing short-term or casual jobs abroad. 101,000 foreign nationals were doing the same in the UK.
The BBC take a view which at least includes data....
www.bbc.com/news/uk-44846002
In 2017 net migration from the EU was 101,000 EU Nationals and 227,000 Non-EU Nationals. A balance that is likely to get more pronounced as less EU citizens come here. Don't forget, the rules will not change for Non-EU.
But then, you have the view from the print media. Jeesus, it is no wonder.
The Sun 2016
www.thesun.co.uk/news/1671087/almost-130000-migrants-have-come-to-britain-in-search-of-a-job-in-the-past-year-bombshell-immigration-figures-reveal/
The Sun 2017
www.thesun.co.uk/news/2876121/brits-are-suffering-from-immigrants-taking-their-jobs-for-half-the-price-we-need-an-immigration-deal-that-works-for-everyone-not-just-bosses-who-want-cut-price-labour/
And now 2018 as The Sun turns its attention to non-EU Migration as it maintains its fine standards of journalistic integrity. suggesting it knows exactly who it needs to appeal to…
www.thesun.co.uk/news/7139869/cabinet-plot-non-eu-immigration-claims/
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Perhaps Project Fear does exist. Perhaps it's just not being done by the people we thought.
Perhaps The Sun and similar media, their readers and supporting Scumbags such as Farage have been running Project Fear for years.
Perhaps Project Fear is not to stop Brexit, perhaps it is there to cause and drive it?
Perhaps Project fear has been*very* successful but needs to be maintained. They must maintain the feelings of fear in order to drive anti-immigration, and anti EU sentiment and action.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 1 Sep 18 at 16:24
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There's a missing figure in there. If you actually read the post well enough to notice the gap, it should have been a 3.
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What's the headlines from that? It's behind a pay wall.
Raab said: "I am stubbornly optimistic that a deal is within our reach.†So using his approach can I stubbornly be optimistic that I win the lottery tomorrow? I was not sure if I was just optimistic... so I think being stubborn I must have more have a chance.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Sat 1 Sep 18 at 01:40
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Sorry, I forgot.
The headline is "Brexit in name only and the politics of transition"
It is interesting as it was written a year ago, kind of showing how obvious some of this stuff was.
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The solution for NI/RoI is obvious and that then has major input into the rest of a deal. But we're leaving it late to agree the obvious.
I assume the leave EU supporters will never respond to these suggested outcomes of Brexit. Although Movilogo has been good in offering his thoughts since we voted to leave the EU - I might disagree with a lot he has said but at least he's responded.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Sat 1 Sep 18 at 02:02
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" but at least he's responded."
Many of us having taken the Richard Dawkins line when arguing with a nutty theist ........ in the end, you just have to give in. Bremainia is a religion.
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But would you be happy with BEANO as the solution? What's your best solution/hope for the NI border problem?
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In the same way as Brexit needed defining, so does BEANO as a subset of possibilities. But it could be a good solution. We will always have a massive common interest.
I certainly hope something resembling the status quo can be maintained in Ireland. I've been in NI this week, and while I haven't quizzed any of the many people I met about Brexit my pal who has lived there for two years says they mostly have very little concern about it - if a border post appears they'll just find another route, i.e. they find it difficult to imagine anything other than a porous border and they don't seem to think that there is any possibility of a change.
Interestingly they don't seem at all concerned at the current absence of a government there either.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 1 Sep 18 at 15:53
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"What's your best solution/hope for the NI border problem?"
It is a mere detail, so my solution is to delegate it to the politicians and civil servants to sort out - 'struth, they earn enough, don't they? If they aren't capable of untwining us from the tentacles of the EU, they shouldn't have asked if we wanted to leave in the first place.
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>>If they aren't capable of untwining us from the tentacles of the EU, they shouldn't have asked if we wanted to leave in the first place.
At the very least you would have hoped that they would have thought it through in principle.
Sadly not.
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They never defined what leaving the EU would look like for the referendum - if they had they'd have noticed the border problem for NI/RoI was difficult.
Unless the EU back down (I don't they will or even should) and accept one of the solutions in the Chequers agreement then we either stay in the single market, we have a hard border or have the border in the Irish sea.
I don't think it's even a difficult problem to solve - it's probably stay in the single market and allow for freedom of movement or we have a hard border. But staying in the single market then has ramifications on most of the agreement.
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>> It is a mere detail, so my solution is to delegate it to the politicians and civil servants to sort out
So if the politicians decide to basically go for the Norway style agreement and allow freedom of movement relating to people, services, good and money and we pay money into the EU with no say on new rules etc. it seem you are happy with that because you delegated this to them. So you couldn't complain.
Heaven forbid if they called it all off - again you delegated this to them so you would not complain?
It would be interesting to hear an opinion. You must have an idea of what you hoped leaving the EU would deliver for you.
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Brexit Discussion - Volume 54 - zippy
