[skip to the TL:DR at the end if you like]
Look, I am no expert on this, I worked for Delta for a while in Atlanta, but not in Europe and it was a long time ago. But to try to explain the magnitude of this.....
According to the FT, approximately 60% of all UK flights land in Europe. I am willing to bet that 60% of EU flights do not land in the UK. For the UK the EU is on they way to loads of places and is somewhere we would like to fly around within. For the EU the UK is on the way to nowhere and is not somewhere they want to fly around within. With the exception of the Irish airlines I guess.
There is a thing called the European Common Aviation Area, and you need not be part of the EU to be a member of that, but it still requires acceptance of all EU aviation laws AND the jurisdiction of the ECJ. Again Teresa May says that is a red line.
There are 9 Freedoms of the Air
1) The right to fly over another country without landing
2) The right to refuel or carry out maintenance in a foreigner country without taking on or letting off passengers
3) The right to fly to any country from one's own.
4) The right to fly from another country to one's own
5) The right to fly between two other countries or between two airports in another county on a flight which originates or finishes in one's own country
6) The right to fly between two other countries stopping your own en-route
7) The right to fly between two foreigner countries without stopping in your own
8) The right to fly between airports in another country and then continue to your own country
9) The right to fly within a foreign country
Any modern shorthaul airline relies on 5), 6), 7), 8) 9) since they all impact additional revenue. Easyjet, for example. Or RyanAir.
1) & 2) are granted by membership of IASTA which covers most of the world but not all of it. I think China is not part of it, and so individual agreement is necessary.
3), 4), 5), 7), and 9) are rights that we currently have within the EU (ECAA, EASA) and that must be renegotiated.
We also have those rights with a lot of other places, but as part of ECAA, not in our own right. So many of those would need to be renegotiated.
Switzerland has the sort of agreement that you might think we should aim for, but they had to agree to the jurisdiction of the ECJ and were not granted 7) and 9). WE could not conceivably complete that negotiation in time. Aside from anything else, it includes the approval of maintenance procedures, oversight and control mechanisms and nobody is going to rush that.
Even the US only has 5), not 6), 7) or 9).
In order to achieve any of that we will have to significantly increase the size of UKCAA AND convince all the other regulators to recognise it and accept its standards, regulations and procedures.
And it's not just flying, it's maintenance and repair as well.
EasyJet is building a European base because of this. British Airways is protected by its ownership structure to an extent, but will need to fly more Iberia and less BA.
TL:DR starts here...…
Can this all be done? Of course it can. Absolutely. It'll cost an absolute fortune mind and countries such as Spain will be seeking to take advantage. And the airline industry is a bit booggered until it's done. We haven't ever done it, and the world has moved on massively since we last did anything similar. Bear in mind all those old agreements are pretty much defunct.
Can it be done by March? Not a cat's chance.
So, a short cut is needed;
What's that then?
- We continue with the current arrangements in the meantime? Teresa May says we will not accept the ECJ even in the short term.
- We renegotiate everything and achieve the same rights? Well, I doubt it. Doesn't seem likely, does it?
- The EU comes up with a massive change and says that members of the ECAA do not have to accept the ECJ. Not a chance in hell.
So, you tell me. What's the alternative in the timeframes?
Seems to me the only possibility is to live with the jurisdiction of the ECJ for the foreseeable future.
But firstly that is a massive climb down on the part of the Government. And secondly it would open the floodgates for all the rest of the ECJ issues.
Who knows what will happen, I don't have a clue. Not my subject area at all.
But damn.
And perhaps Bromp or Zero or others will spot something that has changed since my last involvement, but it's still a b***** great problem.
And if you think that's bad, try Telecoms, pharmaceuticals, finance...……..
Still, worth the price, no doubt.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 20 Jul 18 at 23:06
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