***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 32 *****
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Continuing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 30 Jun 16 at 01:37
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One concern about the leave vote in the referendum is there is a danger that other countries will have to offer a vote and end up in the same situation.
Are people forgetting one of the driving forces behind a united Europe was to bring people closer together and to avoid the situation that led to world wars. The racist outbursts in the UK suggest we all have a small minority of citizens that are like this.
Should the EU disintegrate, what next for Europe. Another Yugoslavia somewhere?
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Movilogo's view of this as being a war between the EU and us made me think of this again. To treat the negotiations for our EU exit as a confrontation in anyway frightens me a little. We should be thinking what is the best we can get and try to secure it ASAP.
Maybe if we go for the Norway model we'll get agreement a lot sooner. But then we don't want to actually leave the EU before we have agreements in place with other trade organisations to replace our EU agreements (e.g. NAFTA).
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Having thought I’d got a fleeting Wi Fi connection only to find it dropping out and losing most of the stuff I’d written, I’ve decided to answer this in one post written in a word document. I’m sure you’ll be able to work out who I’m replying to in ech section.
For Mr D Beest, we never thought that leaving would take us straight to paradise but we were absolutely sure it would get us off the road to hell.
Your comment about white Christian lorry drivers is worthy of no further comment as immigration has never been the main concern of us Outies.
On the contrary, controlled immigration is all we have ever wanted to see from the Remain government, but they have sadly failed to deliver this or even listen to our wishes.
The allegation from rtj that no Outie voter realised that we would no longer be bound by the ECHR is condescending to say the least.
The decisive 1.2m majority and the 70+% turnout shows that a great many people who were previously expected to vote Remain, had thoroughly researched their options and made a considered vote to leave.
For both Ian & I our reasons for voting to leave were as follows in no particular order:
Freedom from having to contribute to any further euro currency crisis bail outs which seem inevitable.
Freedom from the cold, dead hand of EU regulation being enforced upon us whether we like it or not. Choosing to comply for economic and business reasons is a completely different matter.
In the long run it will free our economy up to trade globally rather than with only our immediate neighbours.In time it will enable us to import the skills we need from the most suitable locations rather than being forced to look only on our doorstep.
The return of self -governance to our country as opposed to unsuitable and unsavoury dictats being handed down from EU Central.
Living on a small Island makes it essential to protect our shores and makes controlled immigration a necessity. Standing as one of the smallest land masses in the EU, we have to think rationally for the long term rather than emotionally for the short term.
David Cameron’s resignation shows that a willingness to do the right thing is still prevalent in British politics even though we haven’t seen much of it during the last few years.
With a new Prime minister, who will surely realise the majority of voters will not be guided down a route they are not happy with, can then successfully negotiate globally to benefit us all.
Perhaps my words will show that voting out was not a knee jerk reaction to immigration or a short sighted escape route from the ECHR but a thoroughly thought out decision.
Pat
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>> Freedom from having to contribute to any further euro currency crisis bail outs which seem inevitable.
We didn't contribute to the bail out of Greece last year.
>> Choosing to comply for economic and business reasons is a completely different matter.
We'll have to accept quite a lot of laws and regulations to trade with the EU. And over 50% of our trade is with the EU today. But we do trade with other countries, e.g. the other roughly 50% of trade.
>> iimport the skills we need from the most suitable locations
You do realise the Conservative government are almost certainly going to remain in the EEA which means freedom of movement in the UK. Not allowing freedom of movement will require a border between the Republic of Ireland and NI which cannot happen.
>> ... short sighted escape route from the ECHR but a thoroughly thought out decision.
I'm not sure why you mention ECHR - you already acknowledged that you all know we are still bound by the ECoHR whether we're in the EU or not. That's part of signing up to the Council of Europe like we did all those years ago.
BTW my comments on ECoHR was related to Movilogo sighting deportation of criminals as a reason to vote to leave the EU. Movilogo clearly thought being part of the EU prevented this so they were not aware of the difference between the ECoHR and the European Court of Justice.
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>> reason to vote to leave the EU. Movilogo clearly thought being part of the EU
>> prevented this so they were not aware of the difference between the ECoHR and the
>> European Court of Justice.
The two are routinely confused, understandably perhaps given the lamentable lack of 'civics' education in our schools and the willingness of media and politicians to conflate different institutions.
In interests of impartiality it should also be pointed out that in a relative handful of cases EU residence legislation has been, at least in part, used to defeat deportations. The oft quoted example is Learco Chindamo who murdered school head Phillip Lawrence in 1995.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Philip_Lawrence
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Only just come across this article, and the address by a professor of European Law, in which he comments on the performance of both sides. The Remain camp used some dodgy statistics, but the Leave camp engaged in dishonesty on an industrial scale.
Likens the out brigands to creationists:)
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-european-law-professor-says-brexit-campaigners-dishonesty-on-an-industrial-scale-like-a7095486.html#commentsDiv
A comment on the apparent overbearing EU (to the creationist tendency):
“The EU,†he added, “is not run by the unelected Eureaucrats we are hearing about all the time. It’s actually run by the 28 [elected] governments working together in the Council together with the European Parliament.â€
"The Government’s 2012-2014 Balance of Competences Review he said, was “one of the largest research exercises undertaken by the British Civil Service in its entire history.â€
It produced 32 detailed reports, he said, finding that “every major stakeholder across every major sector of our economy and society doesn’t have a problem with our EU membership. On the contrary, they say it brings real added value to our national policy making.â€
One new angle: Professor Dougan said the real problem would not be tariffs. It would be “The Holy Grail of international trade, regulatory barriers.â€
Suck it up, freedom lovers!
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>> immigration has never been the main concern of us Outies
It was certainly a main concern for many, maybe not you.
It is likely that any restriction on immigration from the EU will make a trade agreement with the EU impossible.
>> In the long run it will free our economy up to trade globally rather than with only our >> immediate neighbours. In time it will enable us to import the skills we need from the most >> suitable locations rather than being forced to look only on our doorstep.
That was always possible, trading with our neighbours is cheaper and more efficient. There is nothing in EU membership meaning we could not import skills from anywhere else in the world.
I respect your choice and the consideration you gave it. However I think that the likely economic and cultural costs of leaving the EU will be very high and will not achieve what at least many out voters were expecting and the costs will naturally fall on the weakest members of our society.
Time will tell.
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>> I respect your choice and the consideration you gave it. However I think that the
>> likely economic and cultural costs of leaving the EU will be very high and will
>> not achieve what at least many out voters were expecting and the costs will naturally
>> fall on the weakest members of our society.
Spot on
>> Time will tell.
Indeed.
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I expect that we will see a recession with no growth overall over the next 3-5 years. Rising unemployment, reduced output and higher import costs coupled with uncertainty will decimate revenues. The City will lose 10-20% of its revenues to Europe.The savings of £19B claimed by the Leavers will end up a net £4B after a Norway style charge and after funding agriculture etc , there will be a net cost of £1-£2B.
Taxes will rise, benefits will be cut and all the poorer areas which voted out will be hardest hit. And many property owners will go bust due to falling house prices and negative equity.
People did not want to know the truth and just wanted to kick the Establishment. The net result will be penury for many.. And many will be personally responsible.
And immigration will continue at lower levels as there will be fewer jobs.. but we need extra workers to replace the retirees.
Last edited by: madf on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 18:47
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I hadn't thought that we might just control immigration by people not wanting to come the UK. That is a subtle way of achieving it.
So if our trade/exports drop and we cannot afford as many imports, then there won't be a need for as many HGVs on the road. Which I actually think is a benefit to me. But it will mean less HGV drivers - so Pat this isn't a dig at you but you and Ian both might find less work coming your way too. He might have less work and you might run fewer courses for HGV drivers. Let's hope that the new government is formed as soon as possible and it does not get as bad as it might.
In my industry (IT services), off-shoring was already a big threat. Things will only get worse and we have the leave voters to blame. So yes I am angry and have ranted on here.
Some of the general population have voted for something they did not think about. We know some voted leave but thought we'd stay so their protest vote wouldn't matter.
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>> I expect that we will see a recession with no growth overall over the next
>> 3-5 years. Rising unemployment, reduced output and higher import costs coupled with uncertainty will decimate
>> revenues. The City will lose 10-20% of its revenues to Europe.The savings of £19B claimed
>> by the Leavers will end up a net £4B after a Norway style charge and
>> after funding agriculture etc , there will be a net cost of £1-£2B.
>>
>>
>>
You've been predicting economic Armageddon every year since 2008, massive deflation, crashes in everything from Windows to wages to house prices etc etc.
That glass of yours seems to be always half full.
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Except RO'R, this time it's real, tangible, touchable, those of us at the coal face of exporting to the EU are dealing with the toughest set of circumstances we've faced in our careers. Yes, including the 2008 crash. I am personally, today, fighting to preserve relationships with customers in EU locations who have completely turned off buying British goods since last week. Their customers don't want them anymore.
It's a s*** storm.
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>> It's a s*** storm.
Best of luck Runfer. Perhaps project fear actually underplayed it?
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Yes best of luck. And it's only the fourth day since the results and two of those were the weekend.
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>> Perhaps project fear actually underplayed it?
I fear people listened to the super intelligent Boris Johnson (because he is) and believed him when he suggested the remain campaign were trying to make everyone fearful. As in, well if Boris thinks it's not going to happen then it will be okay. Well I think he lied and ignored the real risks. And people followed him.
Which is why I will vote against him being the next Conservative leader. He might still get it but at least I will have tried.
Boris should of course be involved in sorting the terrible mess he's been part of creating. Just not the leader.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 19:57
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>>Boris......
...just described in the HoC at PMQs as Silvio Borisconi........
:-)
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>>and two of those were the weekend.
Retailers work 7 days a week, and online retailers work 24/7...
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I think it did. People here may say HMG didn't have a contingency plan but HSBC did and we're now seeing it executed. Similarly many smaller undertakings are going - I became aware today of one among my IT services customers being quietly relocated from London to Germany because of the result. Most of these are simple buying decisions that won't make headlines but they all cost UK jobs, and those jobs won't come back.
Manatee, whatever hazards you perceive in our EU future we could have faced a little at a time and with the rest of the EU as partners. Instead you've handed them to us all at once and with the rest of the EU as competition. If that's not idiocy I can't think of a better word.
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...thoroughly researched their options and made a considered vote to leave.
...
Freedom from having to contribute to any further euro currency crisis bail outs which seem inevitable.
So your thorough research didn't uncover the agreement in February 2016 to guarantee that no non-Eurozone money will be used on any future Eurozone bailouts?
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And we got agreement on not paying benefits unless they had worked for four years in the UK first. So we had that without leaving the EU too.
It's still like to see a definition of the Utopia the outies want from not being in the EU. If it includes no free movement of EU citizens across the UK you'll be disappointed because we will almost certainly have that. If we don't then we won't have access to the single market which will be madness for the UK economy.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 18:31
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I now do not believe we will leave the EU, despite the referendum result. I can see someone like Stephen Crabb becoming leader of the Conservative party, asking Merkel to for God sake give me some concession to take back to the British people, dressing whatever it is up to be a major gain and going to the country for a mandate to stay in the union.
There is a long, long way to go before we start any leaving procedures and the pro EU establishment are not going to give up without a big fight, despite what a dispirited Cameron is saying now.
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>> I now do not believe we will leave the EU
I now do not believe 17m would vote to leave the UK now and were duped by Boris and sadly listened to Nigel Farage. But I do think we will leave the EU. That is what the country voted for. We need to get on with it.
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>> I now do not believe we will leave the EU, despite the referendum result. I
>> can see someone like Stephen Crabb becoming leader of the Conservative party, asking Merkel to
>> for God sake give me some concession to take back to the British people, dressing
>> whatever it is up to be a major gain and going to the country for
>> a mandate to stay in the union.
Well given the posts here from people at the economic coal face that looks like sensible pragmatic politics. Might be too late though given new leader won't be in place until August.
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I voted leave and I have no regrets. I explained why in an earlier post.
This is the crux of the post. (I’m not going to try and find it; there are too many volumes)
>> European commissioners. (Nonelected). They have people reporting to them on issues that they think should become law.
European parliament. (Elected) Their job is to turn the issues raised by the commissioners into law. As far as I know they cannot initiate legislation as an independent body and can only ask for amendments to made.
UK parliament. (Elected). They can initiate laws. They also have to ratify EU laws. If there is a clash of interests then EU law is paramount. <<
I can now vote in a general election and know that whatever government is formed, whether I like it or not, they, and no other, will have the power to make laws for this country. If I do not like it then I have the opportunity to vote again at the next election. There are no unelected bodies in control.
When the president of the European Parliament says this,
Schulz: "The British have violated the rules. It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate".
t.co/z0mujO09eG
then it is time to walk away.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Schulz
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Congratulations, MJM. Don't wrench your shoulder patting yourself on the back.
That's precisely the sort of structural issue I was referring to that we could have addressed in due course as members. Instead, those lawmakers will still be making laws and regulations we have to abide by if we want to continue trading with them, only now (1) we don't get a seat at the table, and (2) they all hate us.
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Oh don't be too harsh WDB, it's good that someone has no regrets. Perhaps newspapers, radio or television aren't readily available where he/she lives. Maybe it all looks like it's all going really well from there.
;-)
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I'm not even sure how secure Westpig's pension (or mine) are in current chaos.
Quite a few applicants for jobs in health and education round here are Portuguese, Greek etc who thought they were in comfortable retirement....
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I wonder if there's a difference in how secure these pensions are. Met Police vs. Civil Service if I remember correctly. I assume Civil Service Pensions are guaranteed but the Met Police isn't going away.
No comment so far from Westpig. He's gone quiet since Friday. Maybe spending his pension out enjoying life whilst he can ... lucky so and so. :-)
I still can't understand how someone could (in my eyes) not vote for their children or grandchildren's futures. I take it Westpig has a few grandchildren. What did he want for them I wonder?
Last edited by: rtj70 on Thu 30 Jun 16 at 00:56
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>>Congratulations, MJM. Don't wrench your shoulder patting yourself on the back.<<
I’ll try not to, thank you for your concern. I’ve managed ok so far.
>>That's precisely the sort of structural issue I was referring to that we could have addressed in due course as members.<<
In your dreams. Project Europe is too far down the track for that.
It seems as if all the innies here know exactly what will and won’t be part of our agreement before we even trigger article 50. So there is no need for negotiations then.
The long and the short of it is that no-one knows what will happen, neither in the UK nor in the rest of Europe.
Oh, by the way, Runfer, we do have radio and television here. We also have internet access. When we have electricity we will be able to use them.
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The Eu Commission is formed from nominations by the Parliaments of each member country, which is different but not intrinsically undemocratic, since the EU parliament can block legislation, on which each country negotiates and discusses in depth before EU law is created. If however ` member country fails to be diligent, or to staff up, then matters may pass them by. Sound familiar Mr Cameron?
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Except, whatever happens, the relationship is irrevocably damaged already. To use the divorce analogy, it's a bit like the husband or wife who says "I'm leaving you" but for whatever reason puts off the date or changes their mind. The marriage is never the same in any event. The trust has gone. We may as well leave now, the sooner the better in fact. It's done, for all the wrong reasons, but it's done.
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....and the "innocent" partner will definitely want to keep the CD collection (or, as a better analogy in your case, the dog) out of spite.....
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>>So your thorough research didn't uncover the agreement in February 2016 to guarantee that no non-Eurozone money will be used on any future Eurozone bailouts?<<
I seem to remember (although I stand to be corrected) that agreement only stood as long as the EU wanted it to, and at anytime they could revoke it.
Stability and certainty for the future are not inspired by threats of that sort.
Pat
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>>Even Dog got that back in May.
You make me sound like a thicko, Will.
:o}
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No, just not my first idea of a receptive audience.
}:---)
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Vodafone could move headquarters from UK if we leave the EU:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36656039
They won't be the only ones doing this. Assuming they do.
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Cadaver features says weaker pound makes UK more competitive:
www.rt.com/business/348698-murdoch-weak-pound-competitive/
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Last week’s historic decision to exit the EU has unleashed a frightening torrent of vitriol from inside the Remain camp.
Social media is currently awash with 'experts' desperate to explain why over 17 million people apparently lost leave of their senses.
Leavers are being depicted as brainless 'xenophobes' and mindless 'racists' who are as ignorant as they are uneducated.
Nuff sed: www.thecommentator.com/article/6355/remain_s_hatred_and_vitriol_following_brexit_vote
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The number of xenophobes and racists will be small. There will be some in the remain and leave camps. There is no place for such abuse that has been witnessed the past few days.
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You and I know Dog it isn't as simple just talking about race and people losing leave of their senses.
I think Gerald Celente said if people have nothing to lose they lose it.
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The country in disorientation and political meltdown is certainly not going to help our cause against the EU as it stands at the moment.
A united positive front would worry the EU bureaucrats and encourage other members on the sidelines also considering some form of exit.
Any bargaining that may be had in our favour is rapidly diminishing.
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Labour are probably regretting getting Corbyn on the ballot last time around. Oops. Not good for any of us now.
I'd like to think if the vote was 52/48 the other way it would have strengthened our cause to get more concessions from the EU. At the moment they hold most of the cards.
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At the point we say "We're off" and look like we actually mean it will be the point where the EU will maybe start to worry. At the moment we are the laughing stock.
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You are right - we're a laughing stock. PM resigned. Opposition about to be ousted. A farce. And BoJo possibly the next PM - I'll vote against that.
Until we officially say we are leaving (which we must and I accept that), we are doing damage to the economy.
With hindsight some might have hoped things would be different in all sorts of ways.
I accept if we re-run a referendum and asked some again it would be leave. But I don't think it would be a majority to leave. But we are where we are.
I just hope if there are job losses and hardship it falls equally on those who voted to leave (and maybe more so because that was their choice not mine - you took the risks).
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>> I accept if we re-run a referendum and asked some again it would be leave.
>> But I don't think it would be a majority to leave. But we are where
>> we are.
I cannot see any form of quick re-run based on a political stitch up. Too higher chance, even with FPTP, that UKIP would take enough seats to hold the balance of power following next election.
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>> I'd like to think if the vote was 52/48 the other way it would have
>> strengthened our cause to get more concessions from the EU.
>>
Given the political reactions to the result, I've had a sneaking suspicion that this was precisely what the politicians of both camps imagined would happen. The law of unintended consequences has come into play.
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Here's a question I just thought of that Pat might know the answer to. Or rather have an idea of how it might work in a Brexit world.
At the moment a lorry driver (or any driver) can drive anywhere in the EU and not worry about borders. When we leave the EU, if we didn't have freedom of movement, how would pan European journeys work?
So if we had shipment of items to the UK would they need dropping off at the border and transferring to a UK haulier? And likewise deliveries to the EU... would we transfer them to someone else.
Genuinely interested in what might happen. This is hypothetical and assumes no freedom of movement in the EU.
Because if you need a permit to work in the UK, surely driving to deliver something is actually working. Or will we let this continue? Because if we let in a lorry driver - how do we know they'll leave?
And Humph has travelled for business with samples to Europe before... will that be possible post Brexit? And will Smokie be allowed to drive to Le Mans without a visa? Would fans for Euro 2016 been allowed to be in France travelling around without visas?
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 01:46
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And following on... how might driving across the continent work? If we restrict entry to the UK, we'll be restricted in the EU. Could we drive through countries before getting multiple visas?
For almost as long as I've been alive there's been freedom of movement. Maybe there was before we joined the common market - I've not researched that but it was before I was of an age I'd recall.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 02:06
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SWMBO and I talked about this last night. Back in the day, and as far as I recall, no visas were required to the common destinations (France, Germany, Belgium, Holland, Spain etc) but obviously a passport was. Now I think it's right to say that you'd need a passport at your entry point to Europe but once in, you can move around without hindrance. Interesting, cos the border between France and Belgium (for example) is a high speed motorway. So I guess even non-EU people can currently move freely.
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>> At the moment a lorry driver (or any driver) can drive anywhere in the EU
>> and not worry about borders. When we leave the EU, if we didn't have freedom
>> of movement, how would pan European journeys work?
Any answer to that will amount to something will turn up
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That is scraping the barrel of doom and gloom.The same way they do now, my car driving licence is accepted almost world wide. I can't see lorry drivers being restricted to their own countries.
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The EU will be able to impose rules, maybe tariffs. And there is nothing the UK can do, except use Irish transport:) Up a certain creek sans paddle at the moment. And all because the average reading age in England is about 12…..
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I was hoping Pat could comment on how she remembers this working before we joined the single market in the 70s for example. I realise that evolved and became the EU of today.
My point is if we don't want freedom of movement of people here and restrict who can work etc., how does that effect someone doing work that involves driving? I assume most of the change might just be down to paperwork.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 09:22
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>> I was hoping Pat could comment
Give her chance. IIRC she's away at the moment and internet connectivity where she's staying is poor to say the least.
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Lorry drivers, and IT services consultants for that matter as well as any other type of mobile worker, will not be restricted and will not require a visa or work permit any more than they did before we joined the EEC / EU etc, or any more than you currently do to visit the USA, Australia etc on business now.
You are not working for an EU employer, you are working for your UK employer, none of your salary will be in euros or liable to tax in an eu country why should you need a visa?
Come on guys lets not start a mini project fear in this place.
Last edited by: commerdriver on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 09:19
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EU citizens will be entitled to free movement, but all bets are off if/when we are no longer entitled.
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>> Come on guys lets not start a mini project fear in this place.
You really believe the experts stating what they believed might happen and be negative was a 'project fear' rather than them saying what could happen? It's people listening to Boris about a 'project fear' that helped get us into this mess.
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>> >> Come on guys lets not start a mini project fear in this place.
>>
>> You really believe the experts stating what they believed might happen and be negative was
>> a 'project fear'
>>
No, although some of the statements from both sides did tend to err on the side of exaggeration
Some of the remain forecasts could well turn out to be underestimates.
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>> Lorry drivers, and IT services consultants for that matter as well as any other type
>> of mobile worker, will not be restricted and will not require a visa or work
>> permit any more than they did before we joined the EEC / EU etc, or
>> any more than you currently do to visit the USA, Australia etc on business now.
>> You are not working for an EU employer, you are working for your UK employer,
>> none of your salary will be in euros or liable to tax in an eu
>> country why should you need a visa?
>> Come on guys lets not start a mini project fear in this place.
>>
I wouldn't take that as a given at this point in time (particularly if we leave the EFTA). Having worked for the UK office of an India based company we needed visas to visit head office on business. This was particularly painful for a colleague who was married to a girl from Pakistan!
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Several of my colleagues have visited the Indian end of projects and as far as I know they have not required visas. I know, however, that bringing Indian Colleagues over for a 3-6 month spell for familiarisation on a project requires a visa for them.
I cannot see that lorry drivers, IT consultants etc etc will require visas within Europe especially where, as in 99% of cases, no extended assignment is involved.
There is so much ground to be covered in the next couple of years never mind the next few months that we can drive ourselves nuts worrying about the unlikely.
I think a few of the "outies" should not feel too complacent about the economic situation in the next few years though.
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"That is scraping the barrel of doom and gloom.The same way they do now, my car driving licence is accepted almost world wide. I can't see lorry drivers being restricted to their own countries."
However whilst EU driving licences have been harmonized and are recognised throughout the EU traveling outside the EU should require the carrying and production of an International Driving Permit (IDP). Whist some countries,eg America, on the face of it, recognise a UK licence an IDP ould be carried. I believe Florida specifically recinded the requirement.
Last edited by: Fullchat on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 17:15
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However whilst EU driving licences have been harmonized and are recognised throughout the EU traveling outside the EU should require the carrying and production of an International Driving Permit (IDP).
Whist some countries,eg America, on the face of it, recognise a UK licence an IDP ould be carried. I believe Florida specifically recinded the requirement.
I've had a few of them, not really a great deal of use. Many places might need one on paper, but I found once you got there, they weren't hugely useful beyond being able to sacrifice it instead of your normal licence.
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I have nothing new to add to the debate, as all the arguments for and against have been rehearsed over and over again in the 31 volumes of this thread.
I have the following two comments to make about Brexit.
First, Rtj70's rant at Movilogo. Movilogo has freely admitted that he is a legal migrant to the UK, who has shown through his contributions to many discussions on this website that he is doing quite well to integrate with the host country. I think it is unacceptable that simply because Movilogo's views on EU differ from those of Rtj70 that Rtj70 feels empowered to write "I actually now feel we should never have let you in to stay as a migrant. I really do." and "You're crazy. We should never have given you a vote."
Second, I think some of the Remain side are exhibiting signs of paranoia and/or depression. In the interest of their own health, they would be best advised to stop dwelling on all the negativity and fear that was spread by the Remain campaign. Don't start worrying about how truckers are going drive through the continent, or whether you will need visas to enter Europe, etc., and remember that the claim "average reading age in England is about 12" includes Remain voters too. The claims that some of those who voted leave now wish they had voted remain works the other way too; as one so-called "celebrity" wrote "'Never thought I'd say this, possibly because project fear worked on me. 'I'm now quite excited about #Brexit and shift on political climate.'"
For what it is worth, I voted leave. I also believe Trump will win. So if you have any nightmares about him becoming US president, get them out of your head now before the reality hits. Last point - I am not going to respond to any negativity posted here by anyone.
Last edited by: BrianByPass on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 09:36
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"For what it is worth, I voted leave." Odd how I could tell before the end of the passage!
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>> Odd how I could tell before the end of the passage!
>>
Well done, you've passed! You fall on the right of the "average reading age in England is about 12". ;-)
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It was the Sun that won it. Except in Merseyside where it is shunned. QED.
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I have grown extremely tired of the mainly negative hysteria, the wringing of hands, the recriminations, the doom-mongering, the panic and sometimes the sheer nastiness of some of the stuff in this thread.
Some of it has been an unwelcome and surprising revelation about the mind-set of some individuals. I suggest that if you re-read this thread in a few months' time you might wish you hadn't got so carried away.
For a dose of common sense on the practical implications of Brexit, try Martin Lewis's blog:
www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/family/2016/06/martins-reaction-to-brexit
One important part of his message is "Let's not talk ourselves into a recession". There is a risk that at least some of the financial and economic problems post-Brexit could be self-inflicted. To judge from some of the comments in this thread, I'd say that was a very real problem.
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And I am equally tired of the head in the sand, it'll be alright on the night, clueless arrogance of those who still, despite all the opinion before, and evidence after the referendum, that this is an ill conceived act of self harm, are continuing to argue in the face of all that, that it's a good thing.
However, I'll happily comply with your request, I have nothing further to say. Our bed is made, we have to lie in it.
I'm not prepared to devote any more of my leisure time to feeling so angry. I'll stick to cars in future.
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I feel the way I do towards Movilogo in particular because of his values that hes shared. We as the UK let him come from the Indian sub-continent and probably gave him citizenship - he did say he wanted a queue for UK passports. He might therefore even have been an economic migrant - although he's probably come over with skills that we needed, e.g. perhaps worked in IT in Kolkata and came over initially as a contractor (just an example - I don't know).
Now he doesn't think we should allow our fellow Europeans to come here freely. And if he got his way of stopping free movement to the UK then that means it stops free movement to the EU (movement of non-EU citizens was irrelevant for the referendum). That therefore will take away my current right to live or work anywhere in the EU for starters.
So it was okay for us to accept someone from say India but now they want to pull up the drawer bridge. I know he's mentioned a simple points based system based on just a sheet of paper which would be a waste of time.
And then if we don't end up with total control over migration then why vote out - apart from the UK queue for passport holders at the airport.
P.S. Thankfully I know I won't bump into him where I work because he wouldn't be happy to see me with all I've said on here.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 15:50
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When will Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be enacted.
I am waiting like the rest of us.
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>> When will Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be enacted.
>>
>> I am waiting like the rest of us.
The papers are full of it. Go read.
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>> When will Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be enacted.
Presumably after we have a new prime minister so sometime after 9th September. Who knows how long after that timeframe.
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>>When will Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty be enacted.
>>I am waiting like the rest of us.
I'm still waiting for my punishment budget.!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadomasochism#/media/File:Shuster_Nights_of_Horror-18.jpg
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>> www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36659900
>>
A position statement, a little early since article 50 is still a distant speck on the horizon, but probably pretty much reflects the EU's opening bid when it is signed.
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It's very depressing that just over half the population seems to be reactionary and rather stupid.
You can't really call hostility to Poles racial discrimination though, since there's no real racial distinction between Poles and British people.
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 15:18
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Pretty much why I used the word "bigot".
However, whilst the precise meaning of "racist" etc. is pretty clear, it is often misused. Its really only people accused of it who want to get into the semantics of whether it applies to them or not - the "speaker's" intention and intended meaning is usually pretty clear.
I find it surprising how many people are quite comfortable being a racist, but get really animated about being accused of being one.
Just easier to call them all bigots, I guess. although why they would be happier with that I don't know.
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Not until he has stood in front of that analysis and explained how the referendum result is not utterly discredited by a campaign that offered nothing but false promises.
Don't leave. Overturn. We can still win this.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 16:48
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Now Tam Dalyell - no mug - agrees with me.
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That MPs should have 'the balls' to do their duty under section III.6 of their Code of Conduct and vote in accordance with what is in the interests of the nation as a whole.
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Isn't he a fairly strong supporter of Corbyn?
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Surely there must be some?
This isn't one though.
www.bbc.com/news/business-36656039
I assume that Westpig is on holiday, at least I hope so and that there is nothing wrong. But I still don't see how people could think that this would be a "small blip" and "worth it" and I'd be interested in his perspective.
Of course the world will keep spinning, but does ANYBODY like the trends we are seeing? Does anybody see this going anywhere good?
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And by the way, the "trends" are what is important.
As I said before the best Leave predictions were based upon things other than EU membership either being the same or more favourable. How can anybody think that will continue?
With all this going on, never mind the people leaving, how many companies int he world are currently working on their 25 year plans and leaning away from the UK?
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>> I assume that Westpig is on holiday
He visited the forum on Monday but last posted on Friday evening. He's probably just avoiding the place now.
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>> Does anybody see this going anywhere good?
>>
I would use the analogy of the man who decided to jump from the top of the Empire State Building who, as he passed each floor on the way down, was heard to be saying "so far, so good".
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I personally cannot see how we can exit the single market, I think what will happen is we will still end being in the EU in all but name but having a far worse deal as we won't get a say.
I am trying to be as upbeat as I can because worrying too much about the future isn't going to fix anything. There is also a massive issue now between the working and middle classes. I actually had to avoid a group of friends over the weekend as I wasn't sure how they voted and instead met up with my younger group of friends who all voted to remain.
I am still very vocal about the entire thing and I can myself falling out with a lot of my acquaintances over it. At this point I am not seriously considering moving out of the UK, but if a decent offer came up I would be a fool not to consider it.
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>> I personally cannot see how we can exit the single market, I think what will happen is we will
>> still end being in the EU in all but name but having a far worse deal as we won't get a say.
Probably a good chance - although we might find the leaders won't accept free movement and we end out of the EEA totally without any agreement. There doesn't have to be an agreement. And then we'll have to agree to even worse quite quickly.
As long as Farage is kept away from the EU negotiations I'm sure the civil servants involved will get the best deal possible.
I have similar feelings about some friends. We have a group we usually see in Lesvos and we were probably going to book in September when we will see some of them. And I know some voted leave from previous holidays so we have mixed feelings about that. We really want to visit Lesvos too - last Thomas Cook flights from Manchester because they are not doing Manchester to Lesvos next year.
In fact the feelings towards the refugees in Lesvos by the Brits make me now think they really do dislike non British/UK people! I heard some horrible stuff from holidaying English people last year.
But you and I who have a while to work before retirement (you longer than me by a long way) probably view this differently to some of the older generation. Had I for example been in the police and reached inspector level, then I could retire in just over 4 years time. If I had say 30 years service by then this would probably make the pension a little over £30k per annum index linked. But I choose IT (I like computing/computer science) and will have worked for the same company for 21 years later in 2016. No chance of me getting a pension any time soon. Unfortunately.
But I am in a better position than many I know. We just need to get on with exiting the EU ASAP.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 16:43
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Of course what is happening in Turkey is much wore than this in most ways. And I can see why there might be danger to let them into the EU if that means free movement. But they aren't likely to join for a while.
There's some on here who might hope they never do. But if we end up in the EEA and they join the EU... they can all come here.... Hmm. No veto for us out of the EU.
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>>>>
>> I have similar feelings about some friends. We have a group we usually see in
>> Lesvos and we were probably going to book in September when we will see some
>> of them. And I know some voted leave from previous holidays so we have mixed
>> feelings about that. We really want to visit Lesvos too - last Thomas Cook flights
>> from Manchester because they are not doing Manchester to Lesvos next year.
>>
>>
To drop friends because they hold different political views from you is nothing short of pathetic, rather like the people who won't have anything to do with Daily Mail readers or those who claim they'd never kiss a Tory.
The hysteria from some of those on the remain side is getting ridiculous.
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Not dropping them at all. But they might still be gloating in September ;-) I'll probably just tell them not to mention it and all have a good time. Cocktails usually start by 6pm.
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Most of my acquaintances voted Remain. most of my wife's voted Leave. t tease them all.
Some can't take that and take the huff.
Miserable sods.
Far moire fun poking the Labour supporters who are definitely undecided about everything:-).
I suggest Boris is paid on commission with £100,000 for every one of his promises met and -£100,00 for each one not met. He'll go bust..Serve him right.
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My auntie doesn't like Boris because he can't comb his hair :-)
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Shame this turned out to be a photoshop. It was funny otherwise... Well I suppose it is still amusing.
It contains a rude word. You've been warned.
pbs.twimg.com/media/CltH7NBXEAASlU4.jpg
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I wathed him in the last EC meeting.
He really manages to get backs up. Just what you need in order to lose a negotiation.
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... well she sent it to a member of the public by mistake. Doh. And it says she told him to get concessions from Boris before backing him as leader.
A quote from the Telegraph:
The email, which was apparently sent to a member of the public by mistake, urges him not to "concede any ground" with Mr Johnson in "crucial meetings".
She suggests that Mr Gove needs to have one of his special advisers in the meetings to help him "thoroughly overcome individual obstacles.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/michael-goves-wife-raised-concerns-about-backing-boris-johnson-f/
Oops.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 17:34
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Anyone who supports Boris in any shape or form in effect believes the end justifies the means. Or is a muppet.
The man has fewer principles than a politician.
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The FTSE has regained all it post Referendum losses and closed at 6360 with a huge rise of 3.58% today.
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Until Article 50 comes into play we are in limbo. With 2 years to E day, markets couldn't give an extrusion….
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>> Until Article 50 comes into play we are in limbo.
Yes but wasn't everyone saying markets hate uncertainty and someone on here saiid their pension pot had declined by 40%?
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>everyone saying markets hate uncertainty
Markets get volatile, but the truth is the only thing the markets hate is stability and lack of change. up or down the speculators make money. With no change, there is no speculation possible - or at least less.
Which is a horrible over simplification, but true enough at the moment.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 19:41
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What you say is no doubt true but it is of course wrong to to cite an overnight drop in the markets as evidence of an imminent financial disaster and then to dismiss the fact that the markets have subsequently recovered as irrelevant.
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The FTSE isn't a great guide as to what will happen to the UK. It is a guide as to what will happen to large companies registered in the UK. And even then, that change could be up or down, the shares can be attractive either way.
But the current storms going on are a bit misleading really. One shouldn't get overly concerned about things such as share price going up or down in the short term.
The UK should be concerned about the trend over time. Up and downing now will happen whatever. It would have happened on s Remain vote also, albeit with different timing and different order.
There is no particular reason for the FTSE to go up or down at the moment other than speculation. No changes are going to happen quickly. And in fact they are not likely to happen dramatically, though they make occur quite quickly.
However, if we consider the trend over time then economically and financially I can see *NO* reason that our position will improve. Leaving doesn't open any new markets to us, it doesn't lower our costs anywhere, it doesn't improve our bargaining power with the rest of the world, it doesn't improve our influence in Europe. In fact it is difficult to see *any* financial or economic advantage.
I can quite genuinely see no way that our position as a country can improve.
Conversely I can see many disadvantages;
We will have no influence in Europe, but in order to trade with them we will have to follow The Chinese do, why would we be any different?
Tariffs and/or exchange rates will hurt us more. Imports will be come expensive, exports cheaper. But the trouble is we have to import stuff to make our exports with. Even if that is labour for a service.
European companies will obviously be less likely to invest in the UK. There is no non-EU company which is interested particularly in the UK, they are interested in Europe overall, of which the EU is the largest part, by any metric. Why would they invest in the UK? Why would adopt a UK standard over a European standard?
So; can anyone think of any financial or economic advantage to leaving?
If not, then the best we can achieve is to remain the same. And to do even that, then for ever downward effect we need to replace it with an upward effect. Can anybody think of one?
The *only* reason to leave is emotional. And that's everybody's choice. So whether its because you want self-determination, hate foreigners, think life will be better, whatever, then if you have emotionally chosen to Leave then that's your choice.
But there is likely to be a very significant and long term price for that choice. Which is the bit that the Leavers don't understand, don't believe, or haven't yet realised.
We will *ALL* be in a better position if the Leavers have made the right decision. I desperately want their decision to be right.
But I don't think it is, and I can find no reason to believe it to be.
I do not know anyone, not one single person, who voted out for a valid economic of financial reason. I only know those who voted out for emotional reasons that now they are struggling to explain.
I reckon if one of the political parties stood up in the event of an election and said "stuff the referendum we're going to keep us in" then they'd stand a pretty good chance of being elected.
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>> I reckon if one of the political parties stood up in the event of an election and said "stuff the
>> referendum we're going to keep us in" then they'd stand a pretty good chance of being
>> elected.
Provided that happened before we'd completed negotiations on the exit I'm sure the EU would allow us to stay. But it would take first an election early enough and secondly a party to say stuff the referendum in their manifesto... which would either be Labour or the Liberals.
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Wouldn't we be a joke in Europe if the referendum was ignored or thrown out by any future government?
We would have to go back on our knees begging for a better deal.EU allow us to stay can you imagine what many Brits think about that.
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>> Wouldn't we be a joke in Europe if the referendum was ignored or thrown out
>> by any future government?
I don't know, other countries have had two votes on treaties. Not the same as a vote to leave of course. But who's to say what's politically extraordinary now?
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Because the UK is a different kettle of fish to be blunt.People here tend to be very independent different history I could go on.
There has never been a easy relationship with mainland Europe in my opinion we could go on forever discussing this.>:)
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We are an island race.
We have not been invaded since the Norman Conquest in 1066.
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Fluffy, can't you go and play in one of your other threads? The grown ups are talking here.
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I am grown up that is why I have an opinion.
Like I said before I Voted Remain in the referendum last week.
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Is that right fluffy didn't that long time ago.
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Think you need to be aware of the Dutch invasion of 1688. Landed troops on the south coast, Torbay. Dutch fleet, twice the size of the Armada, sailed up the Thames. Stuart dynasty deposed, Orangeman took over.
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FTSE may be back but my portfolio of banks, builders, airlines and retail are still down by a lot.
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I guess that shows the advantage of having a balanced portfolio
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>> banks, builders, airlines
Well there's your problem ;-) Should have had shared in say Thomas Cook and TUI as well. Such short sightedness on your part. Tsk
No seriously I feel for you. My wife pestered to get some biotech for ages... I finally bought some when it had come down a bit.... it went up. Then down.... it's like a yo-yo. At least we've not lost much at all (yet).
Apparently when Gove was telephoned about the result on Friday morning he said: "Gosh. I suppose I'd better get up." or words to that effect.
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I have builders, biotech and Thomas Cook shares. I guess I'm a careless investor. I am aware of the risk that it might go down as well as up but obviously I was hoping it wouldn't.
(Thos Cook was ruined for me with the profit warning a few weeks back)
In a different time I could have been the smart one (remember I made 10% in a day a few months back on Glencore - just wasn't 10% of a big enough amount!)
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I stuck all my spare cash, and I mean all, into equities last Friday. By the close of trading on Monday I was several grand down, not expecting a further large fall after Friday's late recovery. Tonight I'm actually 1% up across the portfolio I bought last Friday.
I have exposure to UK building related, some Japanese technology, US oil which deals in dollars & UK leisure, so a fairly varied range of assets.
They are all short to medium term holds, and in 6 months I anticipate only holding one particular stock, but even with due diligence it's still a bit of a lottery.
One friend has lost a small fortune with Aviva & S Life (I don't know what happened to his stop loss system).
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>> (Thos Cook was ruined for me with the profit warning a few weeks back)
Missed that' I'll look it up now.
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Damaging and Potential Failure of the EU... - rtj70
