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Continuing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 01:34
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>> A work permit application could have been introduced (may be less stringent for EU migrants
>> compared to non-EU migrants).
You mean they'd need a job offer?
More or less what happens now since EU migrants have very limited access to out of work benefits.
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Pound has hit 31 year low against the Dollar
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I am still hopeful that can remain a sort of associate member of the EU. I really hope the people who voted leave for the wrong reasons suffer more than the people who voted remain although the statistics show a lot of them won't be around to deal with the consequences.
As usual it will be left to the majority that didn't want this (the under 45s, 50s) to sort out the mess. It is also very important than we do our best not to talk the country into a recession.
I am still angry but I have no ginger in me so there is naff all I can really do about it. I am just praying France accidentally lets in 1000's of illegal immigrants and they all end up living next door to the people who voted because they "are sick of paying bedroom tax because of the foreigners taking hour houses". Somebody actually said that to me last week.
My job now is to do my best to show the hard working Europeans over here that they are still welcome and that only just over half the country voted out. My city voted remain for example.
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You joke about France letting them in... there is talk of letting the UK police it's border from this side of the channel instead of it all being in France at the moment.
Yes it would be funny if they came over in their 1000s and started living next to those that wanted out because of immigration.
What those that want out haven't thought of is those migrants wanting to get her now know they have to get a hurry on and get here before around October 2018. Until then all the EU migrants who want to come can do and we can't stop them.
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That is true there may well be a massive flood of immigrants, although the UK economy is going now a lot of the highly qualified youngsters want to get out but I suspect that will settle down when they realise what that actually entails.
All this talk of moving to France but actually France is having a lot of troubles of its own at the moment and we have just added to them.
I am just trying to be as upbeat as possible but apart from the economic issues there is a massive social rift that needs fixing.
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>> Yes it would be funny if they came over in their 1000s and started living
>> next to those that wanted out because of immigration.
The people at Calais are refugees or, if you prefer, economic migrants from places outside the EU.
In or out will not make slightest difference to their numbers.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 27 Jun 16 at 16:05
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Yes a good post. My neighbour, who told me a week ago that he was voting leave has just been complaining to me about the rates of exchange he was offersed this morning for his holiday Euros. He seems to think it is some sort of government plot.
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It is a fact that the population are growing older.
Therefore by definition those in work will have to pay more to fund the state pension.
Which is why the country either has more workers (Ie. immigrants) or raises taxes.
These are facts. So vote Leave means higher taxes. (And Boris Johnson is a liar)
Simples.
Last edited by: madf on Mon 27 Jun 16 at 17:55
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>> It is a fact that the population are growing older.
>> Therefore by definition those in work will have to pay more to fund the state
>> pension.
>>
>> Which is why the country either has more workers (Ie. immigrants) or raises taxes.
>>
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Or more sensibly, as we are staying healthier for longer we all work for longer. The retirement age needs to raise to seventy, most sixty five year olds are well capable of carrying on till then.
(I'm 63 before anyone asks)
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Todays fall out.
Visiting a factory today in Kent.
Had lunch in the canteen with a director and the referendum was the second most talked about subject by staff there after the football.
Many "outies" were decrying the lies told by the out campaign. Several suggested that they would not have voted out if they had known that immigration was unlikely to change materially.
The firm exports finished They are confident at the moment because they have brought currency and the cheaper price will help them. Unfortunately they will also be hit by significantly higher raw material costs and if they cannot pass these on when their forward buying contracts end then they may be in trouble.
Some (2) staff have been let go since Friday for gross misconduct - clearly racist comments to foreign staff - witnessed by a member of the management team who was walking by and apparently supported by the union and other staff members who heard and gave unequivocal statements supporting what was said. It was not said in jest.
I have checked the value of my pension plan today it is about 40% down in value from last month - great - the last goodness knows how many years of savings are down the drain. I have no choice in the provider and I guess they invested in banks and airlines! My personal share portfolio has also taken a serious hit. Even if every year is good between now and when I retire, I doubt if the pension pots value will be made up.
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Would like to add to my post above - the owner is as "rough as they come". Left school with no qualifications and swears like a trooper. He is also one of the most astute business men that I know; though very much a wheeler dealer - he leaves the technical aspects to trusted and well selected lieutenants (who are qualified engineers, qualified accountants etc).
The director I was working with was clear on his duties. The owner is rough and tough but very fair and will brook no bullying or racism.
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"invested in banks and airlines" - I wish!! My Mrs worked for a housebuilder for some years and paid into a share scheme. Those shares are down by nearly 50% since Friday which puts us well into 5 figures loss.
I don't dare look at the pension funds right now.
Anyway as an Outer said to me on Saturday, "It's just a blip, always happens like that, it'll come back". My response included pointing out that as it's the first time we've left the EU, there can be no "always like that". I also pointed out that a different result would have probably caused an upward blip, which would have been far more preferable. People on public service pensions don't get that bit though.
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I'd want to understand why it had gone down 40%, there's no credible reason why it should have. But rejoice, you'll get a lot more shares or units for your money with this month's contributions. Cheaper is better when you are buying them every month.
My S&S ISAs are 3% down, the falls have been offset by the rise in the overseas equities because of the currency gains. If you have a US Index fund for example it should be up at least 5%.
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She left the company some years back and we now longer contribute. It was Taylor Wimpey, also look at Bellway and Persimmon. The sector has tanked.
We pulled out about half our holding earlier this year (keeping within CGT limit) so I suppose that's something...
I do have some American stuff in one of my pension portfolios but unfortunately not a huge proportion.
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I replied to zippy, sorry.
As you will know, the house builders 'rocketed' before they 'tanked'; they have been making high profits and the fear is that house prices will crash. If they don't, the shares will recover.
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A friend of mine bought a lot of Costain shares two years ago. Even with today's closing price, and like many other builders the price has been hammered the past two trading days, he is still over 25% up, plus dividends.
As for my personal gamble to put all my spare cash into equities last Friday, it didn't pay off and I could have bought considerably cheaper during today's trading session.
Oops
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As you will know, the performance of a particular portfolio depends on when the investment was made. Look at the All tab on the chart year chart here www.taylorwimpey.co.uk/corporate/share-price-centre/share-price-graph and roll the cursor over to see what the price was when she was buying, between about 2003 and 2007 - to save you the trouble, the price (cost) rose from £1.25 to about £3.50.
Last week it was about £1.90 - they've been around that level for months and peaked at something around £2.10. Today it's about £1.15. I shall await the recovery.
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There you go again. If Remain had won, the Leavers could claim exactly the same argument - EXACTLY the same.
No. There was no equivalent in the Remain campaign to Leave's '£350m a week for the NHS' Big Fat Lie. We all pointed out it wasn't true but they went on using it and defending it. They put it on their bus, it was the headline of their campaign leaflet. They had the gall to defend it in public with 'everyone talks in gross figures'; well, it was gross all right.
Then there was the promise to reduce net migration, which we couldn't disprove although we couldn't see and they couldn't say how they'd achieve it. Turns out they couldn't, although they didn't withdraw that promise until the vote was in the bag.
Nothing Remain said compares to these for brazen, knowing dishonesty. £4,300 a household? An exaggeration, probably, but not by an order of magnitude; there were credible models that suggested £1,000 a head, and nobody disproved those.
So how are you confident that, in a majority of 1.3m, no more than 650,000 votes were stolen with knowingly false promises? Take away those who voted Leave as a protest and now regret it and where's your majority outcry against the subversion of democracy going to come from?
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"So how are you confident that, in a majority of 1.3m, no more than 650,000 votes were stolen with knowingly false promises? Take away those who voted Leave as a protest and now regret it and where's your majority outcry against the subversion of democracy going to come from?"
I don't have to be confident about that. Any losing side in an election or referendum could question the result by quoting figures or facts that are unprovable.
And if you are really suggesting, "Let's overturn the result, because not too many will challenge it", that is again a breach of democracy.
You can bluster as much as you wish about which sides told the bigger lies in the campaign, but it's irrelevant.
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I don't have to be confident about that. Any losing side in an election or referendum could question the result by quoting figures or facts that are unprovable.
This time, yes, you do. At a general election, the results are binding on the country because there is no Parliament to be sovereign; the election creates Parliament. In the case of this referendum, Parliament is still there and is still sovereign. It might - most probably would - judge it politically unwise to refuse to approve a clear-cut referendum result with no clouds over the majority, but it is not constitutionally or democratically obliged to do so.
But this result is not cloudless. It is unpopular with three categories: those who voted Remain; those who voted Leave for no sound reason and wish they had voted Remain; and those who voted Leave for reasons they thought sound but that they have since discovered to be anything but. Parliament might judge that 48.1% plus m% plus n% might now equal 50% or more, and that its sovereign duty to protect the interests of the UK might outweigh any obligation placed on them by a departing leader to abide by the referendum result.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Mon 27 Jun 16 at 19:30
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While ( quite a large ) part of me wishes that was a sustainable argument WDB, I think we have to accept the result as it stands.
The question was asked and was answered. Many of us are bitterly disappointed and astonished by that answer but it is what it is.
It does however, beg huge questions about who can in future be trusted, and sadly it doesn't seem that many of the current cohort of politicos can be.
Maybe most of them can't easily reach those dizzy heights without being at least partially duplicitous.
Sad if true.
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"[Parliament] might - most probably would - judge it politically unwise to refuse to approve a clear-cut referendum result with no clouds over the majority, but it is not constitutionally or democratically obliged to do so."
Yes - if it has any sense it will do just that anyway, because that was the intention behind the referendum, and avoiding it on a constitutional technicality would be disregarding a democratic process.
"[The referendum] is unpopular with three categories: those who voted Remain; those who voted Leave for no sound reason and wish they had voted Remain; and those who voted Leave for reasons they thought sound but that they have since discovered to be anything but."
You keep returning to this. It is all unquantifiable and would form the flimsiest basis for Parliament to make a decision to ignore the result of the referendum.
The kindest way I can put it is that it's clutching at straws. I'm very sorry you are so deeply upset at the way things went. I was surprised at the result, but not at the fall-out. I don't like it and hope it doesn't last long.
Last edited by: Focal Point on Mon 27 Jun 16 at 19:59
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...hope it doesn't last long...
You can see the irony in that, I hope!
...clutching at straws...
Not sure. I'm composing a letter on this subject to my (Tory, Remain) MP. It's wrong to dismiss it as a technicality; Parliament could have bound itself to abide by the referendum result - as it did for the 2011 one - so there must have been some thought that Parliament could protect the country from a rogue result. Where we differ is that I think this is a rogue result and you don't.
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"Where we differ is that I think this is a rogue result and you don't."
If by "rogue result" you mean it's invalid, I'm sorry, but that won't work. The result reflects the voting. It is implausibly stretching the meaning of "invalid" to apply it to a situation where it is supposed that some of the electorate have changed their minds since voting.
It's certainly a rogue result in that it defied the forecasts, went against the run of things as it was widely interpreted and so on. But so did the last general election.
As I said before, the result of the referendum was supposed to be binding - that is abundantly clear. To pretend otherwise is a distortion. And to try to get it overturned on the spurious basis that Parliament had not been prorogued or dissolved or whatever constitutional jargon you wish to dredge up is clearly a matter of scraping around to find some pretext to ignore the result, all because the Remainers think they know better.
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Have you looked it up, FP? If not, I suggest you do before rubbishing me for 'dredging up'. The Telegraph, the FT, Full Fact, the Guardian and this evening's Newsnight have all covered this and none have dismissed it as 'parliamentary jargon' or a 'technicality'.
To refer you back to how I introduced this idea, it's not as simple as the result being invalid, more a question of how much of the electorate would feel robbed if Parliament were to exercise its right not to validate it.
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I know there has been discussion about whether the result of the referendum is legally binding. (By the way, I wasn't intending to rubbish you personally as if you were the discoverer of the constitutional loopholes concerned.) But I have yet to see it seriously suggested that Parliament will not ratify it. Journalists are toying with it, but I keep reading something like "they [Parliament] will have to respect the will of the British people".
In reality the only way of satisfactorily overturning the result is to run another referendum and I don't believe anyone has the stomach for that.
A much more likely scenario is that Parliament will eventually be asked to vote, not to directly ratify the result, but on a deal with the EU that includes a technical withdrawal, to be replaced with a trading agreement that might come with strings attached that are rather reminiscent of some familiar EU protocols.
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The Lad's just texted me to say Roy Hodgson is only man in England with a coherent plan for leaving Europe.
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Excellent. Not our finest hour is it?
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2-1 down to a supermarket.
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I heard the loser gets to play Aldi next week.
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I am shocked but not surprised at the referendum result.
At the moment there is political turmoil in the two major parties.
The Conservative Party will quickly reunite but I see the Labour Party splitting into different factions.
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And yet the likes of Farage will continue to spin, will continue to appeal to Dodgy Rog and Dog, will continue to lie and to target the lowest common denominators in our society and continue to do well out of it. What would *anyone* support a liar like Farage? He thinks you're stupid, he worries that others might not be..
The result is the result, and not much can be done about that. And we will never know how it could have been. But is *anyone* feeling pleased about this? I mean people with a brain, so the usual suspects need not reply.
And will the likes of Farage and the others have the integrity to admit their lies? Do you realise how stupid Farage believes his supporters to be? He thinks you'll believe his excuses. The trouble is, I think he might be right.
And will many of the Leave voters have the courage and insight to admit their "misunderstanding"?
Because from what is being said and written, if those who voted Leave and then regretted it had actually thought it through, today would be a different day.
And if it is the "ordinary people", not that I've ever really understood that term, who voted so heavily for Leave so that they could blah blah take back blah blah Empire blah blah foreign blah blah, then I wonder how they feel about being in the group that *will* be the hardest hit.
Very "Joan of Arc", I'm sure.
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And now you will still be subject to EU regulation, law, naming conventions and everything else, otherwise you won't be allowed to trade there. Only now you will have NO input into the rules.
And why would a company in Asia that is eyeing Europe choose to invest in the UK? Why would they build a plant here rather than anywhere else in Europe?
You won't get your immigration cuts, you won't get more money in the NHS, you will in future be grovelling trying to please the EU so that they will pay attention to you.
So, you b***** fools, what *did* you gain?
Or do you still think the Empire will rise again?
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As we know that the 'common market' is important and to get access we'll no doubt have to accept freedom of movement for EU citizens and pay money. So we'll have a worse position with the EU and no say over the rules we have to follow. Great result for those who voted to leave. Really well done.
There won't be more cash for the NHS, we will still (thankfully) have free movement... so what was it all for? Can someone who voted leave tell me what you won for us?
I hope I still get the chance to be allowed to live overseas in the EU when I decide to. Dog and Roger got to do that and now hope they have prevented my choice for doing the same. At least Farage has no say in anything. He's only an MEP about to be out of work.
The only thing about this that makes me smile is the hope that the deal we reach with the EU means those that voted out do not get what they thought they would.
And I know we now also need deals with everywhere else too. And we might not get those deals within 2 years. Or even 10 years.
What a mess this has all become and no way to change it. Lets hope we get the best deal for us with the EU which is close to the Norway model.
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Best thing the Tories can do is put Boris in charge of sorting it out. It will either make him - or break him after 6 months.
As for Labour, I find it strange that sacking a multi millionaire MP is possible in a party supposed to represent the Working Class. We all know that multi millionaires only exist in the Tory party.
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It's remarkable how quiet our once-vociferous Outies have been since Friday. Not crowing is one thing - creditable on the face of it - but Dog, Rog, RR, HW, WP, Dev and others seem to be hiding behind FP and leaving him to try to explain what has rapidly become unexplainable.
So, chaps, we're listening. We've taken control - but what of, and what good is it going to do us?
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@wdb
Perhaps they are tired of it all and feel that a period of silence would be most welcome?
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Then they're cowards, Duncan. They agitated stridently for this referendum, got it, argued for a Leave vote and had answers for everything we pointed out was wrong with their arguments. We were just spreading fear; voting Leave would allow Britain to be great again.
Now they've got the result they wanted and before a single step has been taken towards implementing it it's clear that everything they told us was wrong - or worse - and that they have no prospect of seeing any of Leave's promises fulfilled.
The old saying about it being better to be silent and thought a fool doesn't really apply here. The evidence that the Outies are fools is all around us. So how about being an honest, contrite and clear-eyed fool?
"Sorry, I was an idiot. This was a huge mistake," is an answer I could respect. It might even show us a way to begin to unwind this tangled mess before it destroys everything we depend on.
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>> It's remarkable how quiet our once-vociferous Outies have been since Friday.
But we're still fool members of the EU, Will. Brexit wont take place until late 2018, if it takes place at all.
'The people have spoken' (half of them) although the way things are going I wonder if we will ever leave the EU.
Lets see what our wise and wonderful politicians can pull out of the bag over the coming months and years ...
one way, or the other.
One thing I do know - we are certainly living in interesting times!
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It's remarkable how quiet our once-vociferous Outies have been since Friday. Not crowing is one thing - creditable on the face of it - but Dog, Rog, RR, HW, WP, Dev and others seem to be hiding behind FP and leaving him to try to explain what has rapidly become unexplainable.
I expect they were as fed up as me with the continued name calling and the self righteous attitudes of the innies. The reactions now are not indicative of anything other than the financial markets hate anything remotely like change.
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My SIPP drawdown account is (just) at its highest level for months. You might not believe that but if you want an explanation I will provide it. It's not because it is stuffed with gilts either. Anybody whose pension has been "wiped out" or even hit by 40% must have been very badly invested. Frankly I don't believe them.
Do not confuse high volatility with a major crisis - the 100 index is up 2% this morning, above levels seen in February and September.
The more permanent effect is the fall of GBP, which looks like a new level - and within reason, no bad thing. Personally I stand to be hurt by inflation, but I suspect the government and BoE would like a modest amount as long as we don't have a major recession at the same time.
I think my original view that the timing of this is bad, but ultimately we can fare well enough outside the EU, was about right.
You are (almost) all ignoring the problems that the EU had anyway.
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I am amazed that Cameron had no secret Brexit contingency plan ready to use, at least in outline. Surely he couldn't have been so utterly confident that we would vote to stay in?
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 propos, Le Monde online has an article this morning on "The incredible unpreparedness of the winner Boris Johnson", noting that he played cricket over the weekend.
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I can't see for the live of me that Boris will be the next Conservative leader.He has played his part and now it is up to the serious people to sort something out.
They better be quick before the house of cards will fall down.
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I've been away from here for a week or so; in Bruges on holiday actually.
Apropos of all that I've read both on here and elsewhere on t'interweb, I'm minded to ask one question.
For all that the Leavers may be looking down on the Remainers for whinging, can they honestly say that they would not have been doing exactly the same had the opposite result occurred?
I'll be back later when the stink of self-righteousness has cleared a bit.
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>> Â propos, Le Monde online has an article this morning on "The incredible unpreparedness of
>> the winner Boris Johnson", noting that he played cricket over the weekend.
>>
Drake, Bowls, Plymouth Ho?
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>> I am amazed that Cameron had no secret Brexit contingency plan ready to use, at
>> least in outline.
I suspect he did have such a plan in, as you say, outline. Hence the mention of Article 50 and the refusal to activate it immediately and the creation of a Civil Service cadre to work on detail. Government policy was to remain and in a conventional election there are tight limits on using Civil Service to model opposition policy - there's an easily crossedline where it become spending of state cash for political ends
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>> I am amazed that Cameron had no secret Brexit contingency plan ready to use, at
>> least in outline. Surely he couldn't have been so utterly confident that we would vote
>> to stay in?
It was irresponsible to offer a choice, even if it was a nonsensical one, without having a plan for either outcome - or even range of outcomes, allowing for the margin.
It was also reckless so much to overstate the likely effects on markets of an out vote. It won't make much difference in the end because the market will always win, but the turmoil we have seen so far will have been at least partly the self-fulfilment of a prophesy.
We know why Cameron made these fundamental errors. Neither he nor George Osborne, and others, could imagine the outcome we have just had.
The best result now would probably be to stay in a restructured EU, having given the EU the major shock it undoubtedly needed, but this particular piece of political brinkmanship didn't allow for that.
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>> We know why Cameron made these fundamental errors. Neither he nor George Osborne,
It seems that Osborne did and is known to have opposed the policy. He was pressed on the point by Nick Robinson on Today prog this morning. While GO didn't actually confirm this his use of phrase along lines of supported it once adopted as policy gave the game away.
Odd, because in most areas I had him rather than Cameron down as the more reckless.
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>> Odd, because in most areas I had him rather than Cameron down as the more
>> reckless.
>>
Surprising Bromp, I always thought Cameron's biggest weakness is/was that he is a reaction politician, quick to respond to an issue, sometimes without having thought it through.
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"..hiding behind FP and leaving him to try to explain what has rapidly become unexplainable."
There is nothing to explain. There was a vote. Leave won. Get over it.
" The evidence that the Outies are fools is all around us. So how about being an honest, contrite and clear-eyed fool?"
This and the rest of your post, I'm sorry to say, comes over as borderline hysterical. Your earlier posts were more rational. I understand your frustration and desperation, but I'm getting weary of the continuation of the sort of emotional outbursts that characterised the wretched campaign and now seem to be preventing any determination to move forward and put it all behind us.
I can't speak for anyone else, but maybe that's why the Leavers here have been quiet. Maybe they're all just as fed as I am with the endless trawling over of something that we need to get beyond.
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I am still away in Scotland and have had very little wifi connection but on the odd occasion I have managed to read this forum since Friday I have been appalled at the reactions of what can at best be described as bad losers.
We discussed endlessly, we listened to the learned ones and we voted.
We voted with a majority, you lost to a democratic vote, get over it before I get back home please.
I am certainly utterly sick of it but it does explain why so many who want to leave feel they have been treated with contempt by those who wanted to remain.
Even after a referendum you won't accept your views are NOT those of the majority.
Maybe you should have listened to us sooner, maybe you should have tried to engage us in intelligent discussion without the continual derogatory remarks, maybe, just maybe had we been treated with a modicum of respect we would have listened and respected your arguments.
As to explaining what our reasons were, or what our plans are for the future.......why would we feel the need to explain anything to a bunch of people who have done nothing but deride us for the last 6 weeks?
Pat
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>> It's remarkable how quiet our once-vociferous Outies have been since Friday.
We haven't had much chance to get a word in because certain innies (or should that be ninnies) keep harping on about losing.
A vote was cast, the vote went in favour of getting out of Europe. Get over it.
edit, just seen FP and Pat has said pretty much the same thing
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 10:30
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>> A vote was cast, the vote went in favour of getting out of Europe. Get
>> over it.
Easier said than done. The country has taken a leap into the unknown. Discussion of the consequences and the psephology aspects are fairly natural I think.
Also interesting to hear Osborne interviewed on Today. Quite clear that he opposed a referendum.
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The debate needs to move. Yes the vote was for "Leave". What has to be established is where do we go from here.
Even the most fervent out supporter surely accepts that when we leave we will need to establish a new relationship with the EU. That relationship will be established by negotiation and we may well not get anything like the deal the "Leavers" think we can get.
At the end of the day it seems to me that most of the cards are in the hands of the EU and we are going to have to accept quite a lot of compromise. I rather suspect that a deal very much like the Norwegian model will be the absolute best available which means no restriction on the movements of people i.e immigration from the EU will be unchanged.
Since immigration seems to be the big issue for some (Most?) of the leavers is a deal like this going to be acceptable to them and if not what do they think we should do if that is the best offer on the table?
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...Get over it...
Simplistic thinking like that got us into this mess. It's not going to get us out of it. This article is worth a read for the background. (Warning: contains what FP might call parliamentary jargon. }:---) )
ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/27/nick-barber-tom-hickman-and-jeff-king-pulling-the-article-50-trigger-parliaments-indispensable-role/
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>> It's remarkable how quiet our once-vociferous Outies have been since Friday. Not crowing is one
>> thing - creditable on the face of it - but Dog, Rog, RR, HW, WP,
>> Dev and others seem to be hiding behind FP and leaving him to try to
>> explain what has rapidly become unexplainable.
>>
>> >>
We only voted out five minutes ago, we're still just as In as we ever were. The markets were always going to be volatile in the immediate aftermath and are no indication of their future direction.
If you want to know whether we think we voted the right way, come back in two or three years time and ask again.
In the meantime it's fun to sit here and watch certain people foam at the mouth while their eyes swivel furiously in their heads.
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>> In the meantime it's fun to sit here and watch certain people foam at the
>> mouth while their eyes swivel furiously in their heads.
>>
Can't say I find anything about the current situation fun.
We have made our decision.
It's obvious the government and the rest of the remain camp do not know what is coming, we didn't expect this, so that's not a surprise.
I have seen no leadership at all from the out campaigners who are at least as unprepared, maybe they didn't really expect to win.
What do those who voted leave, and now have what you wanted, think the future, let's say in the next year or two, holds for us?
What are we negotiating for? What do we want?
Control over immigration, free trade with Europe, no negative effect on business, a nice friendly society which welcomes those who live here who have come from outside the UK?
I think the future, especially the next couple of years looks anything but fun for a lot of people in this country.
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>> Can't say I find anything about the current situation fun.
Try this for size [Farage in the EU Parliament this morning]
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayojl7Op37A
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>> >> Can't say I find anything about the current situation fun.
>>
>> Try this for size [Farage in the EU Parliament this morning]
>>
OK, so what happens after the yah boo stage when we get down to making it work ?
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>>OK, so what happens after the yah boo stage when we get down to making it work ?
We'll have to be *patient now while it unfolds over the coming months/years. As our learned friend stated earlier: "ultimately we can fare well enough outside the EU"
*Patience is not simply the ability to wait - it's how we behave while we're waiting.
~Jorce Mayer
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>> when we get down to making it work ?
As far as I can see, for the most part the people who are going to have to make this work are the ones who actually voted to Remain.
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>> www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayojl7Op37A
The man is an ignoramus. The reason we're not seeing Boris or Gove is that they're desperately trying to remove the stains of their involvement with him.
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Said before, I am happy to congratulate the winning side and accept defeat.
Perhaps someone could now explain what is going to be good as a result ? Just curious. But if you have a wee list of things to cheer us up with I would love to see it.
So far, we have a government in meltdown, their opposition in disarray, a weakened currency, a pole axed stock market, broken promises from the leave leaders, a chancellor who has indicated tax rises and further cuts, a realisation that if we want to keep selling to the EU that we'll still have to comply with their regulations despite having no say in what those are...
So if there's any good news could someone perhaps tell us, I think we could do with cheering up.
Last edited by: Runfer D'Hills on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 11:53
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>> Try this for size [Farage in the EU Parliament this morning]
>>
>> www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayojl7Op37A
>>
...well that's a good way to open the negotiation......... (not).
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He doesn't care. Attacking what others do is his MO, leading the way is not his style.
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Can those that wanted to leave list what they hope are the major wins they'd like to see in place once we've negotiated our way out of the EU?
e.g. no free movement of people from the EU
What is it you hope we'll get that's better? We'll be lucky if we get a similar deal to the Norwegians from the EU. So we'd have to accept free movement and pay money to the EU at a similar scale as to what we do today.
I'd be interested to see what our leavers would like so we can then see how that matches up in 2 years to what we got.
We could go on about the negatives but that doesn't help. The country is going to be effected that's for sure. Taxes up and cuts - so that's some of us (on this forum I mean) perhaps out of work or our partners or children out of work. Fuel prices are about to rise too.
Maybe discussing what we'd all like to see as a collective (both leave and remain camps) should be in a new thread?
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>> Can those that wanted to leave list what they hope are the major wins they'd like to see in place once we've negotiated our way out of the EU
1. A separate queue for UK passport holders in airport entry points
2. A work permit system for all non-UK passport holders (even if that means as trivial as filling a 1-page form)
3. No recourse to public funds - for EU migrants (as already applicable to non-EU migrants). That should include NHS (currently non-EU workers pay a levy to use NHS).
4. Being able to deport foreign criminals ignoring EU rules.
PS: Not an exhaustive list but just few things which came to my mind in 5-minutes.
Last edited by: movilogo on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 12:14
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>> 1. A separate queue for UK passport holders in airport entry points
Navy blue passports, at that!
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Movi - if that's an indication of the wants which are high on your list then it really has been a waste of time.
Can't you think of anything of substance, to do with trade or the economy, sovereignty or international relations, which the Mail or it's ilk hasn't fed you?
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I am a very ordinary person. I can ask many things but it is highly unlike that I would get what I want.
The only thing was under my control was casting one vote which I did. I also tried to influence people in known circle and I might have been partially successful on that aspect.
I do not know how negotiation works in political level. I have no experience in politics.
I don't not think by discussing "what we want" in this forum we can influence anything.
On a separate topics, I did write to my local MP 2 times and also once wrote to one of the ministers in House of Parliament. In all cases I got replies with the message "my concern would be taken care of" but that's standard political reply.
Unless we have access and influence over real people who can make decisions on this subject, all we are doing here is nothing but similar to talking in a pub.
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>> I don't not think by discussing "what we want" in this forum we can influence anything.
No it won't change what we get. We're just interested in what the leavers wanted so we can all see how successful you were in getting what you wanted. You voted leave for your own personal reasons - if you don't get at least some of what you wanted, won't you feel cheated?
What if the best deal negotiated is to actually stay in the EU? Or something pretty close to being in the EU, e.g. the Norway model.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 12:45
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>> You voted leave for your own personal reasons - if you don't get at least some of what you wanted, won't you feel cheated?
Of course I'd feel cheated. In that case in next election I'd vote whoever would promise to bring what I want.
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>> Movi - if that's an indication of the wants which are high on your list
>> then it really has been a waste of time.
>>
>> Can't you think of anything of substance, to do with trade or the economy, sovereignty
>> or international relations, which the Mail or it's ilk hasn't fed you?
>>
I notice from this morning's papers that Boris is in expectation management mode, stating that "Securing free trade must come before migration curbs" - not sure if that's actually verbatim - Well yes Boris, anyone with a vague clue about how the economy works knows that, so remind me what the point of brexit was again?
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>> "Securing free trade must come before migration curbs" - not sure if that's actually verbatim
I really hope the Tory party recognise him for the weasling lying toad he is and he ends up a spurned backbencher. If he'd gone with his real instincts and supported In then Leave, exposed as having nobody more convincing than Gove and Andrea Leadsom, would have struggled for traction.
Instead he though he could position himself as Cameron's successor by clinging to the Out side. he as much as and probably more than Cameron should take the bullet for this.
Theresa May, for all I abhor her politicking over the ECHR, is at least honest and competent.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 14:19
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For 3, it would be fairer it was no benefits but we should have reciprocal agreements for NHS like now. We benefit from that when we travel to the EU.
As for 4, you're confused. We've failed to deport people in the past when we all know we wanted to because of the European Court of Human Rights. That has nothing to do with being in the EU or not because it covers those countries signed up to the Council of Europe. And you didn't vote to leave that. By the way the Council of Europe was formed in 1949 and has 47 members.
In fact the EU's European Court of Justice decided not to be bound by the ECHR.
So if leavers thought we could ignore the ECHR by leaving the EU, you were sadly wrong or misinformed. It's not EU related. We still won't be able to deport criminals or terrorists if it would breach their human rights.
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>> For 3, it would be fairer it was no benefits but we should have reciprocal agreements for NHS like now. We benefit from that when we travel to the EU.
I always take travel insurance whenever travelling outside UK. Such insurance is quite cheap.
While there is benefit in reciprocal agreement, I think there are more EU citizens taking advantage of NHS compared to number of Brits getting the same in Europe.
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I see you didn't comment on 4. I bet you thought the EU was responsible for why we can't deport some people. At least the leave campaign didn't say they'd change this because they can't.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 12:49
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>> 2. A work permit system for all non-UK passport holders (even if that means as trivial as filling a 1-page form)
As for 2... well we can't have that unless we stop free movement from the Republic of Ireland to Northern Ireland. So we'd need to put up and police a border crossing between the two. Since that will never happen, it means there has to be free movement of people between the EU and the UK.
So basically, you voted out to have your own queue for passport control (when most in the UK are British anyway) and to stop paying benefits.... which Cameron had negotiated a deal on.
Can we have more examples of what you think we'll achieve by being out of the EU?
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>> 2. A work permit system for all non-UK passport holders (even if that means as
>> trivial as filling a 1-page form)
Does that include the Irish and Gibraltarians? And if it's such a short form it cannot possibly provide enough information for a points based assessment.
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Definitely not for Gibraltar as being part of UK territories.
Regarding Rep of Ireland, it depends on UK's need. In theory, being outside UK, we should be in a position to allow free movement from certain countries but not all other EU countries.
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And who decides which are Good and which are Bad, and what's the basis for this discrimination? How shifty we feel they look? Or do we just want the rich ones?
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As a relative outsider, let us examine this a bit further...
And, bizarrely, through a sporting perspective.
How many players have qualified to play for Ireland, Wales, Scotland, England (Insert any nation here) by dint of having a grandparent born in said nation, yet the sportsperson never set foot in the nation in their lives?
Zola Budd ring any bells?
Or Spike Milligan? Had the Irish passport out of sheer devilment, but was over 30 before he set foot in the country?
Where does one draw the line as to who is British/deserves to be in Britain, and who isn't?
Will there be a latter-day Joanna Lumley to leap in on the next Gurkha-like case?
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>> Definitely not for Gibraltar as being part of UK territories.
>>
>> Regarding Rep of Ireland, it depends on UK's need.
Do you understand the historic links between UK and Ireland?
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That's why I said outside EU, the UK would be in a position to choose - say to free movement with Ireland but not with all countries.
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See my thread above, re Zola Budd.
Or various other tennis, rugby, athletics and boxing types with the most tentative links to UK.
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>>we should be in a position to allow ....
"We"?
I really struggle with the idea of an immigrant who thinks immigration should be stopped/restricted. About as much as I struggle with Dodgy Rog & Dog reviling free movment now that they've finished taking advantage of it.
Doesn't most of your resentment towards the EU stem from the fact that they were allowed unrestricted immigration to the UK whereas you had to apply and be accepted? I'm sure that's what you said in an earlier post.
You clearly have little idea beyond that about the implications of EU membership or not.
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...my suspicion is that, having realised he is going to be sidelined in any negotiation, he is cheerfully "queering the pitch" for what is to come......
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He is a joke. He probably really thought the UKIP MEPs in Brussels would play a part in negotiations with the EU. Let's hope nobody votes him into our parliament at a future by-election.
By the way, I read just now that Norway paid the EU €306m in 2014 for access to the free market. With a population of 5.1m then that's €60 for each person in the country. So we'd pay about €4bn as an estimate.
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Salmond and Farage are from the same camp, I hope the Scots take note of the fallout from an out decision.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 12:47
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>> Salmond and Farage are from the same camp, I hope the Scots take note of
>> the fallout from an out decision.
He's trolling again....
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>> >> Salmond and Farage are from the same camp, I hope the Scots take note
>> of
>> >> the fallout from an out decision.
>>
>> He's trolling again....
>>
You are welcome to your opinion, I think any split up of the UK would be a double disaster. The politicians who created the divisions in society and will end up on fat pensions regardless have a lot to answer for.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 12:58
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>> You are welcome to your opinion, I think any split up of the UK would
>> be a double disaster.
Absolutely it would. It was the bracketing of Nicola Sturgeon with Farage where you were trying for a response. Responsibility for any UK constitutional crisis lies squarely with Cameron, Westminster and Whitehall.
The probability that England and Scotland would vote differently was obvious as were the risks to the Irish border. Another reason why the referendum act should have provided for unanimity between the constituent nations and/or a % of electorate threshold as in the 1979 Scottish/Welsh devolution referenda.
EDIT: ON amended his post while I was typing. Too many of the politocos are millionaires to whom the pension is just sugar on the top.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 13:05
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Just had to pull into a lay by. Was driving along listening to the radio when I heard a report that race hate crime instances have suddenly increased since Friday. The theory being postulated is that there are those who feel that their prejudices have been validated by the referendum result. I haven't actually been sick but it was close.
Do you people have ANY idea what you have just done? You don't do you? God help us.
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Of course they don't, but they gradually will. (those that are capable)
And then it will be "Oh, I didn't think we'd actually leave, I just wanted to shake things up a bit so we could renegotiate"
Revisionist history, the last refuge of the terminally ridiculous.
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Again, as an outsider, I can't help but feel that some folk thought 'we have this one sewn up!'
Like England last night. Iceland? Isn't that Kerry katona's mob?
But again, as an observer, whoever thought it wise to hold the referendum during European Championships, Glastonbury (fast becoming a cultural landmark), and other distractions for the young and feckless needs their head read.
Last edited by: Ian (Cape Town) on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 13:31
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... and there's the problem... the genies are already well and truly out of their bottles and even a re-run refeyendum (Brad why are you laughing at me) wouldn't put them back in. I expect more will be uncorked as time goes on.
I did say some weeks back that I didn't think a referendum was a good idea but I hadn't realised all the reasons for that.
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>> Do you people have ANY idea what you have just done? You don't do you?
>> God help us.
Address that to the people who have committed the crimes. I am just as sick as you when I hear about them, but I feel no responsibility for them and neither would you. The racist 'patriots' will hang their crimes on anything convenient at the time.
I realise you are upset, but blaming 17 million people (Which I have no doubt includes all the racists who voted, but I can do nothing about that) is no better is it?
Time will tell whether these worrying reports are exaggerated, temporary, or both. I expect there has been an increase in reporting, both by the victims and the media.
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I genuinely and deeply fear and recognise the signs here.
Economic disarray, political instability, isolationism, clever people promoting the idea that their country is somehow special, that immigrants and other scapegoats are to blame for it all, an electorate duped into voting for something they don't begin to understand without any clarity as to what lies ahead, extremists using it as a platform to validate their prejudices...
Sound in any way familiar?
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Me too Runfer. I fear for my country.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 15:28
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I am no happier, less happy if that were possible, than you and Runfer about racist outbursts but I think your genuine concern - I trust you both not to exaggerate it to make an argument - is overdone.
We steer a fairly moderate and tolerant course in this country compared with much of Europe. For every neo-Nazi yob who feels momentarily emboldened by a result they themselves do not understand there will be 50 people to shout them down.
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I see the referendum as a battle for Britain, and the Brexiteers have won the first engagement.
Unfortunately there are victims in any battle, and in this case I apportion blame in the general direction of Facebook and Twitter.
I live 'beyond the real world'. My front door is open from 6am until 11pm and my car keys are left in the ignition overnight but, although I fled SE London 30 years ago, I do keep up with events there, and in the shires.
I can understand what goes on in the minds of the people who commit these hate crimes, being as I used to be even-more of a stupid ignorant fool than I am now.
My wife said just a few minutes ago that if she knew the hatred and awfulness which would come about after the referendum, perhaps it would have been better if we didn't have a referendum and I must admit I'm beginning to think along the same lines now.
Just to lighten things up a bit ... Regarding the election of a new PM, perhaps Roy Hodgson should be given the job, being as he has a ready made cabinet who are very good at leaving Europe.
(*_*)
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But what do you hope to get that we didn't have before? And what do you want to get rid of that is bad in the EU now? There has to be things you wanted to change. You can't just say it's a battle or Britain.
Come on why not share what you think we should have out of the EU that we couldn't in it? Include what your wife thinks too.
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>> But what do you hope to get that we didn't have before?
I don't reply to anyone who has inferred that I am a racist, as you have done in recent times on this forum but. I'll make an exception in this case.
THIS is what I don't want: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/plans-drawn-up-for-european-superstate-djj5pvq32
The mass immigration which has taken place in this country doesn't affect me one jot, but I can well understand how people must feel in some parts of the UK.
Open borders just isn't going to benefit this country at all - in the long term, because being we are (were) a relatively wealthy country, more and more economic migrants will be making their way here from the poorer parts of the EU when more and more countries join the EU.
I feel so strongly about this, that I am prepared to take a financial hit - in the short term, to help Great Britain in the longer term. This is, IMO, a battle for Britain. We have opened the Pandora's box of the Brexiteer's majority result - we can't go back now, only forward, and for that, we have to rely on our politicians to see us through :(
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I'd rather you carried on not replying to me, I prefer to have nothing to do with you.
And for the record, I am stating that you are a racist.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 16:38
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>> Absolutely it would. It was the bracketing of Nicola Sturgeon with Farage where you were
>> trying for a response.
Who mentioned Sturgeon????
She is way ahead of Salmond in realising the realities of independence.
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I wonder if anyone other than movilogo will share their reasons for wanting out so we can all gauge how we've done in 2 and a bit years time.
You voted out to get something - yes? So what was it?
If it was total control over movement of people then we're unlikely to get that. If like Movilogo (thanks for sharing by the way) you thought we could ignore the European Court of Human Rights then you can't have that either because it's not an EU institution.
Sadly I think we'll end up in a worse position. And down the line the EU will change and we cannot have our say in that entity we still need to deal with.
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Well said R O'R.
I'd noticed the swivel eyes had swapped sides too:)
Pat
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If it's swivel-eyed to see the political chaos the Leave voters have brought on us, and to ask what of what they thought they were voting for is still anywhere near the table, then I'll be as swivelly as the chair I'm sitting in until we get some answers.
Pat won't get her white, Christian lorry drivers' paradise, WP won't get his beloved sovereignty - although he may well get the recession he thought was a good idea, so one out of two, eh? Roger will at least get the satisfaction of having royally fecked up the lives of people he resents for having more than him, and plenty more who have far less. But not much sign so far of Making Britain Great Again - or even that anyone's willing to Take Control.
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I must say I am appalled by Nigel Farage's conduct this morning. Not just the rudeness, but the sheer incompetence of anyone who thinks there can be any merit in or good reason for addressing an entire chamber in the way he did.
I've always thought he is a seriously talented man and speaker, but for a missing vital part. The humanity, or the empathy maybe.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36650014
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>> I must say I am appalled by Nigel Farage's conduct this morning.
>>
Totally agree.
He is, like Donald Trump, proof that you can be a popular politician with no substance.
"Taking our country back" is not more or less substantial than "Make America great again".
If we follow through the detail of "Taking our country back" and do not allow free movement of labour across borders we will pay an extremely high economic cost to do it.
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>> I must say I am appalled by Nigel Farage's conduct this morning. Not just the
>> rudeness, but the sheer incompetence of anyone who thinks there can be any merit in
That of course is the real Nigel. The 'hale fellow well met' character is an act.
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He is a good speaker and he didn't pull his punches did he.
You have never done a proper job in your live.(That Hurt).But lets' face it The German Schulz mentioned the divisions in Britain after the referendum.Cameron came back with a piece of paper and businesses as usual.
Now it isn't business as usual and they all look very uncomfortable.
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Now I might be wrong... but his outburst this morning is not going to make deal making any easier with the EU is it. Some real damage was done. He is after all one of the UK representatives in Brussels. He really is trying his best to damage our country.
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I'm sure they recognise him for what he is. A mix of proportional representation and a cross Europe tendency to use the Parliament Elections for protest means there are several other right wing chumps. Several of them more unpleasant than Farage.
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>> other right wing chumps. Several of them more unpleasant than Farage.
Yes. Few politicos are nice deep down, but Nigel Farage is at least personable as right wing chumps go.
Let us not forget that there are left-wing chumps too, and that some of those are pretty nasty. We may prefer them to the other lot Bromptonaut, but we don't idealize them... do we?
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>> Yes. Few politicos are nice deep down, but Nigel Farage is at least personable as
>> right wing chumps go.
Do you think he's really personable? In the flesh in business rather than glad handing the public and media. He struggles to get on with his sole MP and various members of his party.
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Well, I have to say, it's all going well so far eh? There's the, um, and of course the, er...
Actually, what is going well again? It just seems to have slipped my mind for now. Perhaps someone could remind me.
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The decision of delaying invoking article 50 by UK might be a good thing.
Both UK and EU will feel pain because of divorce and better deal will be obtained by who can inflict more pain on other party first.
For example, Ireland is also going to lose its credit rating. Malta, Cyprus will be hard hit. German car makers are anxious about their export etc. If more and more member nations push EU to get a deal then we have better chance of having a favorable deal for UK.
This is battle of nerves - whoever can persist the suffering longer will win (for common man similar to house purchase, salary negotiation - it is all about who can better leverage his/her situation, based on demand/supply model).
Whether this is morally right or wrong is different debate but in love and war (= economy) everything is fair.
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>> Both UK and EU will feel pain because of divorce and better deal will be obtained by who can
>> inflict more pain on other party first.
You really think it's about inflicting damage on each other. Perhaps we should bomb them as well. They didn't want to inflict pain on us but you seem to want to damage the other countries. We're causing damage to our own country - we voted for this. I actually now feel we should never have let you in to stay as a migrant. I really do. Maybe you'd have failed the points system you want others to pass. Sorry but as a migrant you're pretty intolerant of others.
>> This is battle of nerves - whoever can persist the suffering longer will win
So we lose jobs, go into a recession and then maybe send in the tanks as well. You're talking as if this is a war. You're crazy. We should never have given you a vote.
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That's a racist comment and should be removed immediately
Pat
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The bit about saying Movilogo shouldn't get a vote because he's a migrant who is intolerant of other migrants? Happy for that bit to be edited out. My reaction to the 'war' bit should stand.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 16:24
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But it was not racist - it was only directed at movilogo so it was personal. I don't even know what country movilogo came from - all we know is English is not their first language. I am happy to have migrants in the UK and to have free movement of people. We need migrants as a country. They are important.
So to clarify, my comment was not based on race - it was based on movilogo admitting they didn't understand what they were voting for and voted to leave anyway. And then to start talking about the negotiations as a war. That's probably how the likes of Farage sees it too. I'd not let Farage in either but he's British.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 16:32
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Don't be silly, Pat. There's nothing racist about taking issue with one individual and his attitudes. It's not about where he's from, it's what he's brought with him; his points value, if you like.
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So we rightly have no idea who most on this forum are. We can guess at the ages maybe.
I wonder what the forum's family voted like, especially children. I've read reports of great rifts in some families. Some children begged parents to vote to stay but they ignore their children and voted to leave.
What is ironic is one such tale I read said the mother had made great sacrifices for her children so they got the best. And now they are adults has decided to vote out and therefore potentially prevent them living their lives how they'd assumed they would, e.g. living and working anywhere in the EU/EEA. There is no guarantee we'll get freedom of movement.
That's one thing that makes me angry - I had plans and they will have to go on hold now.
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>> I wonder what the forum's family voted like, especially children. I've read reports of great
>> rifts in some families. Some children begged parents to vote to stay but they ignore
>> their children and voted to leave.
Mrs B and both offspring were In so was my sister and I assume her husband.
My Mother too, and she's 90!!
Could the Mods move this into a sperate sub-thread?
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 17:02
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>> I wonder what the forum's family voted like, especially children. I've read reports of great
>> rifts in some families. Some children begged parents to vote to stay but they ignore
>> their children and voted to leave.
>>
SWMBO voted out "because immigrants" probably. FFS. Spamette Major voted out because of fishing quotas but now bitterly regrets it. Spamette Minor voted in, when she found out her elder sister had voted out she phoned her up and gave her such an earfull she reduced her to tears, for probably the first time ever. Well done 'call me' Dave.
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>> Spamette Major voted out because of fishing quotas but now bitterly regrets it.
What most people including me probably didn't realise until now is the EU fishing quota for the UK is divided up by the UK government. And they choose to give most of it to three large companies.
Then the actual quota we have will still be controlled if we're in our out of the EU. We can't just catch all the fish we can because there will be none left in no time at all. Then there's the fact we share access to a lot of the fishing grounds with other countries.
So basically.... we can do naff all to change the fishing quotas. And since fishing employee so few people compared to other industries, the time given to negotiate this will be well down on the list of important items.
So fishermen are about to get angry with what will happen to them. Especially if they bought new boats with the help of the EU via grants (but still have loans) so they can use the latest nets to make sure the young fish can get away safely from the nets.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 20:21
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I doubt you'd even recognise a fishing boat if you saw one rtj, try asking the true inshore fishermen of our coastal waters what they think and just how it works for them if you want to discuss it properly.
Pat
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>> I doubt you'd even recognise a fishing boat if you saw one rtj, try asking
>> the true inshore fishermen of our coastal waters what they think and just how it
>> works for them if you want to discuss it properly.
And what proportion of out national economy is inshore fishing?
Any sales they were making in EU are probably stuffed now for same reason Runfer reports. Cool Britannia is no longer cool.
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The point is the quotas will still remain. So voting out for that reason was pointless.
Do you know an inshore fisherman I can email and ask?
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>> That's a racist comment and should be removed immediately
Crikes Pat, you're seeing racism where even I don't.
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>> So we lose jobs, go into a recession
There were recessions before (while being in EU) an there is no guarantee that there won't be in recessions (irrespective of being in EU or not). When I voted out, I was very well aware that there could be a recession in short term. Nobody blamed EU during 2008-9 recession, so why blame Brexit for that? The London riot happened in 2011 (not in recession, still in EU).
Think the situation from EU's point.
They have 2 options:
1. Teach a lesson to UK so that no other country even dares to leave EU.
2. Make some concessions (e.g. soften stand on free movement of people across borders) so that no other country is willing to leave (all anti-EU sentiment is still predominantly because of immigration)
The risk with [1] is that UK might be successful financially outside EU in next 5 years. If that is the case, then no one will be able to prevent collapse of EU. It is somewhat proven that threatening does not work (e.g. Brexit result).
With option [2], Western Europe will be happy but East Europe will be unhappy. But the real power lies with Western Europe (don't think Greece can bargain).
Which option would you choose if you are leading the EU parliament?
>> We should never have given you a vote.
That's not how democracy works. If there is ever an "exam" introduced (based on reasoning/analytical capability) for achieving voting rights, I am confident that I'd clear that exam (if not, possibly 90% of country's population will fail too).
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>> Nobody blamed EU during 2008-9 recession
That's because the EU didn't create the recession - the bankers did.
>> why blame Brexit for that?
Because any recession now is because of the vote to leave. It is the cause of any near future recession. We can hopefully avoid it but we were in a period of growth and now we might be lucky to just about stay where we are. But there is a strong possibility of a recession and the vote to leave (which the country backed 52% to 48% ) will have been the catalyst.
I'm not sure why you mention Western and Eastern Europe. It's Europe. Are you suggesting we let in say the Spanish, French, Germans and Italians but not the Slovakians and Polish? Isn't that racist?
The rest of the EU are signed up to Schengen so there really are no borders. Well there weren't until they built some to stop the refugees crossing the continent. We'd been allowed to opt out of Schengen, Eurozone, etc.
I would hope the EU don't chose any of these options. We will negotiate. First we need to decide what we want as a country. But Boris et all seem to be saying they are happy with free movement of people. So you'll not get the border controls you desire.
I think you're right about a lot of the population failing an exam if there was one for voting rights.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 16:46
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>> That's because the EU didn't create the recession - the bankers did.
Correct - at least something we have both agreed on finally!
Iceland jailed the bankers and then the country reverted back to right track. UK never punished the bankers! Because of Brexit there is a good chance that London will not remain the financial captial anymore and banking jobs will move (along with these nasty bankers). Yes, it means a lot of innocent people might lose their jobs. However, this has other advantage of turning UK into a manufacturing based economy (moving from heavy reliance on financial sector). This is a major reason why support for remain was so high in London. The politicians are puppet of these bankers and Tories especially serve the interest of these bankers. These bankers are responsible for creating a wider rich-poor gap in UK. Without Brexit, they will go on with impunity without any fear for there misdeeds. Yes, you can call it as schadenfreude if that makes you happy.
I heard (from a friend so can't provide reference) in mainland Europe, the number of people earning over £1m/yr in banking sector is less than 400. But in UK alone, the number is 2500+. Why is that?
Ideally a society should aim for making everyone economically better without making someone worse off (win-win situation). But current economy and socio-economic structure is making rich richer and poor poorer. Our economy is seriously skewed towards banking.
>> I'm not sure why you mention Western and Eastern Europe. It's Europe. Are you suggesting we let in say the Spanish, French, Germans and Italians but not the Slovakians and Polish? Isn't that racist?
I meant to say usually migrant population travel from less economically prosperous countries to more economically prosperous countries. I think a EU like community works better when all countries have similar economic strength. If there are countries with high per capita income and lower per capita income then there would be mass migration from poorer to richer countries with an open door policy.
Introducing a work permit system seems a fair idea to me. Why should treat EU nationals more favourably compared to non-EU nationals? Everyone should be allowed entry (for work) on merit and contribution to UK economy.
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>>Yes, you can call it as schadenfreude if that makes you happy.
...if I were being generous, I would term most of your posting naivety, and it wouldn't make me happy....
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SQ for Zero's relation
>> Yes, it means a lot of innocent people might lose their jobs. However, this has
>> other advantage of turning UK into a manufacturing based economy (moving from heavy reliance on
>> financial sector).
Manufacturing is gone. That is not going to happen. Seriously.
High tech stuff, luxury goods, design, intellectual property, R&D maybe. Metal bashing, garment manufacturing, general household goods and appliances etc., forget it.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 29 Jun 16 at 01:28
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"I heard (from a friend so can't provide reference) in mainland Europe, the number of people earning over £1m/yr in banking sector is less than 400. But in UK alone, the number is 2500+. Why is that?"
If it's true, it will be because the UK (mainly based around London and Edinburgh, but elsewhere too) have won and maintained top spot as Europe's financial centre, and is "the place" to have your HQ, despite the massive costs of London property.
Frankfurt has been on the ascent for a while and I think you can comfort yourself in the knowledge that the positions will be reversed before too long, once the European banks start relocating their HQ staff to other countries.
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...indeed, and, like it or not, the UK economy is dependent on Services (largely financial ones) for which retention of the EU "passporting" arrangements, or something similar are critical.
The existence of these, and our exploitation of them, is part of the "below-the-line" value we get from our EU contributions, outweigh the cost of those contributions by a huge factor, and surprisingly haven't featured in much of the conversation pre-referendum....and then the penny dropped.
Like it or not (and I don't, particularly) we (the UK) are dependent on the retention of those services, and thus we are in hock to the EU (and boy, do they know it).
The choice now is to go "cap-in-hand" for the retention of capabilities (and possibly be right royally screwed for them), or face years in the wasteland, with no economic future whatsoever.
If you think we can rebuild our manufacturing base without inward investment - all of which looks much less attractive post-Brexit, then you're living in cloud cuckoo land. We're far more likely to lose inward investment, and probably much of the existing results of that which has taken place so far.
Frankly, what we need to survive is something that looks like membership of the EU - maybe we should apply for that?.......
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>> turning UK into a manufacturing based economy
The UK is mainly a service economy these days. Much less reliance on industry (including manufacturing) than in the past. You do realise the term service does not only apply to banking services, right?
>> I heard (from a friend so can't provide reference) in mainland Europe, the number of people
>> earning over £1m/yr in banking sector is less than 400. But in UK alone, the number is 2500+.
>> Why is that?
Because London is the main banking centre in Europe and generates about 7% of GDP of the UK. If we leave the EU we will probably lose the banking passport and therefore much of this banking will move overseas - probably Frankfurt, Paris or even Dublin. There's a lot earning those high salaries/bonuses because they are generating a lot of income and profit. I am sure the other EU countries would love for all this banking to move to their country.
>> Our economy is seriously skewed towards banking.
It's not. But it does generate around 7% of GDP. Manufacturing is double that at least.
>> I think a EU like community works better when all countries have similar economic strength
So the Greek economy should be as strong as the German economy? So maybe the Greeks need to step up their manufacturing sector a bit then.
>> Why should treat EU nationals more favourably compared to non-EU nationals?
Because of the single market. So at the moment I could go and work in Germany without a problem. What you're suggesting is the UK population should not be allowed to work in other EU countries.
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>> The decision of delaying invoking article 50 by UK might be a good thing.
>>
This is not a decision or choice for anyone to make
To invoke article 50 will require a vote in parliament, that will take some time.
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>> To invoke article 50 will require a vote in parliament, that will take some time.
What if the majority of MPs vote against it? If I was an MP I'm not sure I could vote for it - maybe we will need a new election before article 50 is voted on. And that will delay things and maybe end up damaging us before we've even started any negotiations.
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>> Do you think he's really personable?
I don't suppose so. But I did say 'as right wing chumps go'.
The older I get the less ideological I become. I vote Labour but no longer regard myself as a socialist. And have a soft spot for the much execrated Boris Johnson.
Stop talking at the back there!
Right, carry on.
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I see nobody can articulate what sort of deal they would like to come from leaving the EU. Are people scared to share what they hoped for? You must have a wish list of what the new government will try to negotiate for.
It looks like Boris will try for a Norway type model so we will have free movement of EU citizens in the UK. And have to contribute to the EU budget. Is that acceptable?
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>> It looks like Boris will try for a Norway type model
>>
I should think a few other people might have some idea not only what we should be trying for but also who should be trying for it.
Can't see it happening for a few months.
We are in very uncharted waters and there is no quick way round this
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>> It looks like Boris will try for a Norway type model so we will have
>> free movement of EU citizens in the UK. And have to contribute to the EU
>> budget. Is that acceptable?
That's likely to be best when can get. But since his lies, now barefacedly admitted, got us into this there's no way on God's earth he should be negotiating.
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...or rather, new party time?
I'm wondering whether the current party structure can survive this. The Conservative Party has been holding the Europe rift kind-of shut with blu-tack and hairy string - and struggling to find a leader wide enough to stand in front of it - since they pushed Thatcher out in 1990. Recent events are not, shall we say, going to help.
Meanwhile, Labour has to decide between being true to its union roots and being electable - their fracture being a horizontal one between the membership and the parliamentary party. And the Lib Dems have redesigned their stationery.
The Old Left and the Very Old Right share a nostalgia for an old world in which people knew their place, tipped their caps as the boss walked by and muttered after he'd gone. Neither likes or understands the modern world of international commerce and free movement of capital and labour. Both see all the threats and none of the opportunities. Both are anti-EU.
In between are the Cameron-Osborne one-nation Tories and the neo-Blairite wing of the Labour Party. They have fought each other before, but that was under their old banners. In this new political landscape they have more interests in common than not.
So could they ditch their embarrassing old aunties and uncles and join forces as a centrist, pro-EU Progressive Democrat party, or something similar? Bring together the best and most human-looking talent from both front benches (plus Ruth Davidson, please) win the November election and take a revised, reasonable UK position to the EU in the hope of showing that we're not all like the other lot.
Worth a try?
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>> Worth a try?
>>
If they are sensible enough to do it, which, unfortunately, I doubt
I can certainly see a new structure to politics coming out of this eventually.
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May be starting. 172 labour MPs have no confidence in Jezza. Only 40 do.
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The referendum was a bad idea, but it's happened now.
Why on earth do people want to organize more referendums, as they seem to? Faff faff faff...
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As we have had a discredited referendum (in many eyes) it!s probably inevitable there is a rerun given the scales falling from the eyes of the gullible outers, at least the sentient section.
Last edited by: NortonES2 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 16:53
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"at least the sentient section. "
Splendid phrase.
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It would be a bit awkward if it were re-run and came up with the same result wouldn't it. It's not inconceivable that there's some who voted to remain who, now it's happened and the sun still rises, might switch to Out.
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>> It would be a bit awkward if it were re-run and came up with the
>> same result wouldn't it. It's not inconceivable that there's some who voted to remain who,
>> now it's happened and the sun still rises, might switch to Out.
Indeed, but it would place the result beyond doubt.
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I think the voters might demand some more thought-through proposals before a re-run too. So we'd know afterwards what they'd voted for.
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>> Indeed, but it would place the result beyond doubt.
>>
Would it really?
Another referendum is the wrong answer in my view, you will still get a losing side, they will still complain.
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I agree, CD, and I don't want a re-run either.
What we've learned in the last week is that the EU and its systems and processes are too enmeshed in everyday UK economic and political life for a rapid exit to be anything but hugely damaging. When you ask an Outie how this or that essential freedom or activity will be protected, they acknowledge this by just coming up with a renamed version of a feature of EU membership - we'll still be able to move, trade, study, extradite suspects - and seem to have lost any idea of what Control we'll be Taking Back.
In other words, the Outies have taken us to the edge but they're afraid to jump. Do they really want to leave at all?
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>> extradite suspects
The ones we've struggled to extradite has been because of the European Court of Human Rights. Which has nothing to do with the EU. In or out of the EU, the laws of the ECoHR still applies.
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I was thinking of the European Arrest Warrant, RTJ. Deportations are another matter; it would require a change in UK law to allow us to deport people to countries where they might face torture or execution.
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>> In other words, the Outies have taken us to the edge but they're afraid to
>> jump. Do they really want to leave at all?
>>
Bottom line, they do not know what they want in specific terms, and there are a number of different and conflicting answers across the spectrum of out voters.
It's going to be a long process. It needs to be for constitutional and political reasons and the compromise we end up with is not going to suit everyone.
Troubled waters ahead.
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If you compare this referendum wit the Scottish one there are remarkable similarities, apart from the result. In Scotland the two big cities with a large benefit claimant number voted out, everywhere else was in, in won. In the Euro referendum the wealthy with the big houses, company cars and investment portfolios and had the most to lose are calling foul because the working Joe public has out voted them because they see first hand the shortage of housing, school places, access to doctors and NHS facilities etc. They don't give a stuff about the wealthy because the wealthy have shafted them.
As for calling people racists, there are hotheads in all walks of life, just as there are football hooligans.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 18:06
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We cannot even generate much of a list of what the outies on this forum actually think they want apart from Pat and Movilogo. If this forum was representative, there is no chance the Conservative government is going to get you what you think you voted for. And they certainly aren't going to ask you.
I wonder if any of the general population were persuaded by arguments made by the unofficial Leave.eu group led by Farage who will have no say in how we leave the EU and what agreements we reach with the EU. He's not even an MP and no other MEP will be too happy with his performance this morning (well apart from the other UKIP MEPs).
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 18:09
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>> We cannot even generate much of a list of what the outies on this forum
>> actually think they want apart from Pat and Movilogo.
It was all said in 20 odd threads before the vote. I for one am not going to waste my time saying it all again to fuel your rant. I assume you must have had the day off.
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RTJ and I don't get as many days off as most of you and this isn't one for me. (But we don't take Pat's fag breaks either.) But we're both facing an uncertain and dangerous future thanks to the idiocy of people like some here, so perhaps you'll understand the need to sound off a little as we organize our ideas and arguments for the even worse weeks and months to come.
Rationalize all you like. If you voted Leave this is your fault.
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>>this is your fault.
The hysterical reaction? Sorry, I'm trying not to patronise too.
It's funny how the EU has been deified since Friday. It's just as faulty a vision as the sunlit uplands of Olde England that some on the other side fantasise about.
Your future was always dangerous and uncertain. That's life. I decided a long time ago that the only person who was going to put me and my family first was ourselves.
You are clearly intelligent and resourceful. I expect you to prosper in or out, if spared, something none of us can be certain of.
I'm not playing your and RTJ's game while you're both in this frame of mind.
I wish you both well.
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I'm not playing a game. I'd just like to see what the leavers on here would find acceptable. The official leave campaign led by Boris had some lies and then we had the unofficial Farage/UKIP campaign.
When it comes down to agreeing anything with the EU for access to the common market, a lot of what was promised will not be delivered. I personally think people believe the UK is more important to the EU with trade than it is. We were one of the largest economies and therefore contributed more money than most. That is why we had some preferential treatment.
Out of the EU... we might have to take what they're willing to accept. Even if we grow trade with other countries (We always could have done before), in the short to medium term we need to trade with EU where at least 50% of our goods go.
Another example of less money in the economy.... less money for the NHS for the next 2 years. So if one of us were to get a serious life threatening illness, our treatment could be affected. Especially if it's expensive and long term, e.g. cancer.
Anyway. Let's hope the new Conservative leader (I'll not vote for Boris) starts sorting the mess out sooner rather than later.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Tue 28 Jun 16 at 19:45
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>> Worth a try?
I'd rather have the LibDems than the Blairites. But we are certainly stuck for the moment with an unappetising choice.
Labour MPs have just voted 172-40 against Mr Corbyn in a vote of no-confidence.
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>> Why on earth do people want to organize more referendums, as they seem to? Faff faff faff...
I think the suggestion is for an election not a referendum. But I don't think we have time for that.
So the vote for Corbyn is looking bad but will he step down? I hope so for the country but he thinks he has the popular vote (plus the mischievous ones from the £3 members who knew he was a mistake).
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With the problems in the Labour and Conservative camps, it does look like there are deep rifts. Maybe we do need a new centrist party. The Conservatives got in when they moved to the centre. Labour last got in when they moved to the centre.
The Corbyn side are left wing. The new leader of the Conservatives is likely to be more right wing. And I'd not vote for either. I could say I voted for a centre of right Conservative party but actually I voted Liberal in the last two elections. Our MP is in a safe Labour ward though.
For the negotiations, the steer on what we get should, in my opinion, include all parties. A lot of Labour voters voted for out but they will disagree with many of the Conservative policies and ideas.
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An arrangement that sets up a party largely without the hindrances of the two existing parties, one hating wealth and the other hating the populace. Perhaps the Liberals are in a position to accept suitable reinforcement? I'm persuaded towards the Libs more and more.
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>> Worth a try?
>>
You know what? I think you might be right.
I have long despised the Scargill-worshipping uber-socialist extremists on the left wing of the Labour party, and heartily distrusted some on the extreme right. There are a good few Labour politicians like Hilary Benn whom I both admire and respect, but essentially I'm a moderate Conservative by inclination.
Just keep Tony Blair well away from it. Centreist or not I utterly detest that man and his puppet-master wife.
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Future Job Prospects - Bromptonaut
