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Ongoing Election chat.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 5 May 15 at 21:40
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Yes, big conniving toerag, that Mr Rahman. Even had the cheek to tell constituents it was their 'religious duty' to vote for him.
Mind you there's nothing particularly Muslim or left wing about this sort of behaviour. As a Catholic public schoolboy in the fifties I used to get occasional political-type homilies. There was a right-wing ginger group thing called Common Cause.
In any case the general view seemed to be that it was our duty to vote Conservative. The Soviets were absolute fiends and Labour was soft on communism, stood to reason didn't it?
Within a couple of years I had switched allegiance to the far left. Now I see it as my duty to vote for the moderate left (Labour). Ed Miliband will have to really try to put me off now.
Human beings are far more simple-minded than chimpanzees, I keep noticing.
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Thu 23 Apr 15 at 18:34
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>> Ed Miliband will have to really try to put me off now.
Well, he's doing his very best with the plan to put that slab of stone with a few faffing 'principles', Miliband's signature and a Labour rose on it in the garden of 10 Downing St if he becomes PM.
For sheer vulgar, no-hope idiocy that takes a lot of beating. I am teetering on the brink of just not voting, the way I used to when young. It's driven Herself into the arms of the Greens.
Miliband isn't stupid. Who has persuaded him that this is a good idea? Whoever it is they ought to be shot.
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>>
>> Miliband isn't stupid. Who has persuaded him that this is a good idea? Whoever it
>> is they ought to be shot.
>>
He may not be stupid - he clearly is not - but he lacks any common sense or common touch.
That's the problem of living in a bubble of politics since leaving university..No experience outside Westminster.
Think what happens when he becomes PM as polling suggests. He can't run an Opposition where pressure is negligible compared to running a Government where "events" screw you...
Last edited by: madf on Mon 4 May 15 at 12:58
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This is the first Labour campaign since 1987 that has not had Philip Gould (RIP) in the heart of it, and it shows. One of the key architects of New Labour, Philip was a decent and compassionate man, and utterly modern and professional.
If Philip had been there, I have no doubt that Labour would be well ahead in the polls by now (and many of the policies would have been different). Whether that would be a good or bad thing depends on your politics of course.
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Guardian take on Tower Hamlets.. and whilst they are not anywhere near to my politics, I wholeheartedly agree with the piece.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/25/tower-hamlets-dictatorship-east-end-lutfur-rahman
Last edited by: Westpig on Sun 26 Apr 15 at 15:53
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>> Guardian take on Tower Hamlets.. and whilst they are not anywhere near to my politics,
>> I wholeheartedly agree with the piece.
>>
>> www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/25/tower-hamlets-dictatorship-east-end-lutfur-rahman
He was a local govt demagogue. A former colleague whose career was as Borough Solicitor and later Chief Exec in various places dined out on tales of such people. I suspect that while Rahman may be a particularly egregious example similar stuff is commonplace.
Meanwhile, another interesting take from the Grauniad - one I agree with.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/27/why-privatisation-is-the-key-to-the-election
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32435850
A few thoughts about if the major parties continue ring fence, health, overseas aid and education. Where does that leave one of the next largest budgets?
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>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32435850
>>
>> A few thoughts about if the major parties continue ring fence, health, overseas aid and
>> education. Where does that leave one of the next largest budgets?
>>
We're going to save money and Green up defence by using pedal powered tanks...
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> We're going to save money and Green up defence by using pedal powered tanks...
>>
Indeed, I've just seen the PM promising forces to assist in the Med. Good job it's not after the election or there will be little to send. All well and good cutting back but few of the potential leaders seem to understand or care that equipment with properly trained people and a capability cost money. We seem to be in a situation of 'we must do something' but aren't prepared to pay for the ability to do 'something'.
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They are all hypocrites, but we know why - we get the politicians the mugs will vote for.
Cleggie has promised pay rises above inflation for all public employees. Lunatic.
There is not a cat's in hell chance of any of them reducing the debt materially other than by inflation.
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Meanwhile as the Tories continue to flog the 'SNP blackmail' horse they're very coy about their own potential partners in a minority led administration. In particular I refer to the Ulster Unionists.
There's the obvious issue that giving undue influence to the Loyalist backwoodsmen is likely to undemine or even threaten the peace process. The second is that Democratic Unionism i.e. the Paisleyite wing have some pretty illiberal, some would say abhorrent, views on social issues such as gay rights and abortion which mainland UK regards as settled.
While those on right may say Owen Jones comes with a bias warning this article paints a worrying picture: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/24/snp-dup-democratic-unionist-party-government-tories-anti-scottish-coalition-homophobic
If the polls stay as they are though the psephologist view is the Miliband has more opportunity to construct a majority (with Nationalists, Greens and LibDems) than Cameron has with his rather narrower choice of partners.
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I imagine all the minor parties are for sale.
At least the UUP (& DUP) are unionists not separatists. They can look to UKIP as well, and the Lib Dems for that matter who can swing either way.
I don't call the Greens, plus two parties that want independence from UK, a wide choice.
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>> I don't call the Greens, plus two parties that want independence from UK, a wide
>> choice.
SNP are likely to hold 50+ seats. Whatever your view on the independence issue a bloc of that size cannot be written off. On current polling projections Labour + SNP could win a confidence vote albeit by a tiny margin. Add in the Lib Dems though and there's a reasonable working majority.
Tories, together with Lib Dems, UKIP and DUP are still short of majority and even that assumes the LD's would work with UKIP, who might get four seat at best (OTOH they could be down to just carswell).
Such a proposed deal could split he LD's particularly if they're leaderless after election - Clegg's not certain to win Sheff Hallam. Labour though may prefer not to throw the kitchen sink behind Oliver Coppard simply because Clegg would be to much of an asset to a coalition. Hearing him on radio this morning on Nicky Campbell's slot he tells a good tale and manages to sound sincere in a way neither Cameron nor Miliband quite pull off (though the latter has improved his ratings during the campaign and is no longer a drag on Labour.
Of course the polls could move in next 13 days and with multiple parties + FPTP some odd outcomes are possible. Everything still too play for.
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>> a good tale and manages to sound sincere in a way neither Cameron nor Miliband
>> quite pull off (though the latter has improved his ratings during the campaign and is
>> no longer a drag on Labour.
Err correction, He has improved his ratings from disastrous to "not quite so disastrous but still a drag on labour" level.
The man simply has no character or charisma of any kind shape or form in any way. As a personality he is simply unelectable on his own. Miliband is why labour can't break a clear majority over the Tories despite 5 years of austerity. If he ends up with Sturgeon as his crutch she will wipe the floor with him and eat him for breakfast.
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>> The man simply has no character or charisma of any kind shape or form in any way. As a personality he is simply unelectable on his own.
I don't agree. Quite apart from the efforts of life-coaches and spinners, which are apparent to a seasoned observer in Mr Miliband's slightly altered, somewhat improved appearance and demeanour, he's the leader of the Labour party which may still outperform the conservatives at the polls. Not much chance of an absolute majority though given the neo-Poujadist thrust from the smaller parties.
An odd thing about those is that although UKIP voters are reactionary and proud of it, voters for the greens and Scottish nationalists see themselves as left wing and progressive. But their role is objectively as reactionary as UKIP's, because they are taking more votes from the Labour party than any other.
I said this sternly to Herself who is soft on the greens. She didn't take it well really but she isn't a real political zealot. Most people grow out of that. It's too tiring to keep up for ever.
Very, very good big political cartoon in today's comic, on the finger-painting theme Cameron and Boris started yesterday. Brilliant.
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>> If the polls stay as they are though the psephologist view
Who or what is one of those?
is that Miliband has
>> more opportunity to construct a majority (with Nationalists, Greens and LibDems) than Cameron has with his rather narrower choice of partners.
Not an expert but much of a muchness I'd say. LD are happyish to jump in with either. Greens are likely to have as many seats as UKIP.
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>>
>> >> If the polls stay as they are though the psephologist view
>>
>> Who or what is one of those?
Definition of psephology in English:
noun
[MASS NOUN]
The statistical study of elections and trends in voting
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>> Not an expert but much of a muchness I'd say. LD are happyish to jump
>> in with either. Greens are likely to have as many seats as UKIP.
what, 3 each max? As the two are unlikely to want to be on the same side, you can't count that as a block of 6.
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I didn't mean for them to be counted as a block at all. Just that they were likely to win the same amount of seats, my guess is 2.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives and UKIP do better than expected.
More of the polls now are making use of the internet and social media. I just have a feeling that this skews the response towards Labour; they will aim off for this of course but might still get it wrong.
In the case of UKIP, I suspect they will have more support than the other parties from people who are not so open about it, given the scorn that has been poured on the party and its supporters. Difficult to correct forecasts for that
Of the three main leaders, Clegg is the most human/sympathetic. Cameron to me will never appear to be anything except a rich man who, try as he might, can never convincingly empathise with the working class (or "hard working families" as it is now known), and Miliband just comes across as desperately trying to be someone he isn't.
Farage beats all three on the ability to communicate in a seemingly genuine way, even his sometimes very approximate grasp of UKIP policies somehow makes him more credible as a bloke. He is actually more comprehensible too, much of the time, not being so prone to Newspeak as the others. He's either very well trained, or not trained at all.
Only talking image of course, which is the problem with the system now - millions of votes potentially being cast on the basis of who is the best actor.
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>> I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives and UKIP do better than expected.
>>
>> More of the polls now are making use of the internet and social media. I
>> just have a feeling that this skews the response towards Labour; they will aim off
>> for this of course but might still get it wrong.
>>
I think there is something in that, sounds similar to the Scottish vote, many of the Yes voters were very internet aware so it seemed like it was going to be Yes vote. But there were many voting No not on the 'radar'.
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>> I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives and UKIP do better than expected.
I think the tories will do better than expected and Ukip worse.
At the end of the day, when Mr Joe Vote puts his mark not he paper it boiled down to one thing.
"Its all about the economy"
Everyone, (apart from labour who are trying to talk it down) and all the news are saying the economy and spending power is getting better.
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>> I didn't mean for them to be counted as a block at all. Just that
>> they were likely to win the same amount of seats, my guess is 2.
Well as a 2 or 3 seat party or block of votes they are just insignificant noise in the house.
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I agree with Zero - I expect the Tories will do a bit better, and UKIP will not.
Ed Miliband is simply awful - if fact he is dreadful - if his brother had been leader I think he'd be worth an extra 2-3% at the polls.
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>> Ed Miliband is simply awful - if fact he is dreadful - if his brother had been leader I think etc. etc. etc.
The man's doing all right. All politicos are geeks anyway. Never met one who wasn't in some way.
He's being mobbed by the notoriously backward and right-wing British left, poor fellow. You should be ashamed of yourself Lygonos. I would remind you once again that Attlee and Harold Wilson were both pretty charisma-free.
I agree with most people that Farage is quite personable and amusing, an enrichment to the knockabout comedy of politics.
Excuse me while I refresh my drink and light another fag.
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>> >> Ed Miliband is simply awful - if fact he is dreadful - if his
>> brother had been leader I think etc. etc. etc.
>>
>> The man's doing all right. All politicos are geeks anyway. Never met one who wasn't
>> in some way.
I've no doubt but he seems to be beyond that of a normal political geek.
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>> Farage is quite personable and amusing, an enrichment to the knockabout comedy of politics.
I'd forgotten of course that he suffers chronic back pain resulting from crushed vertebrae and pinched nerves. No wonder he sometimes gets this mean and evil glint in his eye, poor fellow. He carries it off well, bad cess to him (politically not personally, have to know him for that).
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>> Well as a 2 or 3 seat party or block of votes they are just
>> insignificant noise in the house.
>>
Correct, although for the odd vote or two they might make the difference.
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I'd go for an outright Tory majority, though not by much. Most people are not doing too badly and there's always a last minute "Better the devil you know" swing to the sitting tenants.
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>> I'd go for an outright Tory majority, though not by much. Most people are not
>> doing too badly and there's always a last minute "Better the devil you know" swing
>> to the sitting tenants.
There's another take on that.
A lot of people are still not doing at all well. The rewards of growth, such as it is, are not spread anything like equally. Too many in the zero hours/min wage treadmill, too many forced into part time. Too many in jobs subsidised by Working/Child Tax Credit.
The growth came very late after the glimmers present in 2010 were extinguished by too much austerity too soon. Same reason Osborne's had to move his deficit target to a laughable degree. The public can see through that and are clever enough to work out that zero inflation is down to oil and other resources falling in price.
A curse on all their houses.
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I'd don't think that's the case with people's perceptions. If it were labour would be nailed on.
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>> I'd don't think that's the case with people's perceptions. If it were labour would be
>> nailed on.
What I'm saying is that there's a divide. A significant chunk of the population are in position above. If all were as dandy as some would hae us beleive Tories would be nailed as they were in 87 or Labour as in 2001.
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>> >> I'd don't think that's the case with people's perceptions. If it were labour would
>> be
>> >> nailed on.
>>
>> What I'm saying is that there's a divide.
That's what I'm saying as well, enough on the rebound but some still waiting for the upturn. Probably one of the reasons its so tight.
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>> >>
>> There's another take on that.
>>
>> A lot of people are still not doing at all well. The rewards of growth,
>> such as it is, are not spread anything like equally. Too many in the zero
>> hours/min wage treadmill, too many forced into part time. Too many in jobs subsidised by
>> Working/Child Tax Credit.
>>
>>>>
The question is, how many of the disaffected vote? Nearly all pensioners do, as do most white and blue collar workers but only a small percentage of those stuck on sink estates and roughing it. And they were no better off under Labour anyway, despite what that party would like you to think.
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I've sort of known where my vote is going for some months now but in recent weeks I would have liked to be able to confirm in my mind that it's correctly placed.
That has been impossible to do.
I have tried, really tried and listened to all the debates, looked online at their websites, read the political press and all of the leaflets pushed through my door.
With the three main parties I find they are too busy telling me what the 'other' party has done or will do to even begin to give me enough firm information on what they will do if elected.
This is not what I'm looking for and here I am, just over a week away, having made the effort but in the situation where I really can't be bothered to listen to the 'he said, she said, they did/didn't' childish backbiting anymore.
If they don't realise this is wrong, how can they possibly be trusted to run this country.
I'm one of many who feel like this and Ian ( who is a staunch Tory!) even remarked the other day that Milliband certainly looks like getting the sympathy vote at this rate.
Pat
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Pat
For what it's worth, it's clear to me that all the main parties know what the truth is but don't dare tell the voters. The truth is that our current system is unworkable and will have to be radically changed over the nest 15 years before it is swamped in a mountain of costs caring for the elderly and more immigrants using our "open to all benefits".
The solutions are unpalatable:
attract more highly skilled and paid jobs by making it easier for hi tech industries to expand in the UK.
Make the education system reflect that with far more science and technical courses , more nursing and medical and far fewer arts course...
Restrict benefits to the able bodied so you have to have paid a minimum three (?five) years NHI to qualify - including UK citizens.
Phase out working tax credits which are a subsidy to lower pay employers. Saving £20 billion eventually.
Restrict the Foreign Aid Budget to c £3B.. a third of its current level. Saving £8 billion.
No voters will accept that as it will involve pain/a destruction of certain beliefs that throwing money at a problem solves it.
Nigel Farge is unwell.
David Cameron is tired of being PM.
Hence the poor campaigns.
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Thanks madf, that makes more sense than anything I've heard yet.
Pat
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Have to say, out of the mainstream the LD's speak the most sense.
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>> Have to say, out of the mainstream the LD's speak the most sense.
Certainly their leader is the most convincing. Don't think though that their statements today about (a) no allegiance with SNP and (b) legitimacy of minority govt based on party coming second make much sense.
All leaders need to recognise the realpolitik of hung elections. The LD's as the party that's consistently advocated PR over a prolonged period should be first to acknowledge that.
The truth is that on May 8 there will still likely be 'all to play for'. The parties would be more honest if they recognised that openly.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sat 25 Apr 15 at 10:21
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Clegg is a double dealing Europhile.
Cameron is a patronising Europhile.
Milliband is a dorkish Europhile.
Bennet is a loony Green Europhile.
Farage has the edge as a convincing leader of the only party prepared to challenge the cosy status quo.
Not that I am biased :-)
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I'm not biased either as I don't like any of the above, apart from Farage :)
The other 3 cheeks are silver-tongued liars of the first magnitude IMHO
And Bennet, well. Gordon Bennet, do me a favour guvnor!
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I rather like the Greens. All they need to do is apply some logic and rational thinking and they would have a viable party...
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>> I rather like the Greens. All they need to do is apply some logic and
>> rational thinking and they would have a viable party...
Indeed they could. A green label could garner much support and many votes if they weren't so loony left and illogical about it. Buried in the manifesto, are many good and laudable things, some of them even achievable, but alas buried under the loony illogical stuff that would have us all on our knees and destitute in a heartbeat.
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After the election, one of two people will be Prime Minister.
David Cameron or Ed Miliband.
Who do you want out of those two?
If you'd lean more to one than the other yet vote for a 3rd one, you might let in the one you really didn't want. That's the fact of the matter.
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>> David Cameron or Ed Miliband.
>> Who do you want out of those two?
Most people understand really that it doesn't make an enormous difference. Both parties are constrained to a large extent by Europe, the rest of the world and us, the population.
Anyone more than ten years old has been governed by both lots. I don't buy the idea that they've suddenly become red in tooth and claw, although ideologues claim that they have.
Sure, there's a difference. That's why we vote, those of us who bother. But as my mother used to say when we bumped our heads and cried: 'It'll all be the same in a hundred years' time.'
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Trouble is WP you're not voting for either Miliband or Cameron, you're electing an MP. The oddities of our electoral system are such that a tactical vote may be the best chance of at least some limited influence.
Which constituency are you in?
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>> Trouble is WP you're not voting for either Miliband or Cameron, you're electing an MP.
Technically yes, but I think most vote for a party and that leader. I'd bet most people (including many who vote) don't know who their their MP is and I include myself in that.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 25 Apr 15 at 17:41
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>> Which constituency are you in?
>>
South West Devon. Gary Streeter.
2010 election he had 56% of the vote, Lib Dems had 24% and Labour 12%.
Tory stronghold, obviously.
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>> South West Devon. Gary Streeter.
Thought the name rang a bell, he was one of 'our' Junior Ministers in the Major administration. Originally held a less safe seat but joined the mid nineties 'chicken run' to secure his present patch. My recollection was that previous seat was Exeter way but a quick check says Plymouth Sutton, previously held by David Owen and Alan Clark. Now merged with Devonport so my Daughter's home patch, a target seat for Labour.
As I've mentioned before we're in equally safe Daventry. The announcement of a recount here in 1997 raised brief hopes of a political revolution in the county (all the other seats fell to Labour) but it turned out to be about a minor player's deposit.
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>> After the election, one of two people will be Prime Minister.
>>
>> David Cameron or Ed Miliband.
>>
>> Who do you want out of those two?
David Cameron, to be honest tho I don't want some of the donkeys in the rest of his pack. It would be nice to do away with party ideology, it gets in the way of sensible policy.
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 25 Apr 15 at 17:40
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I would be happy with more of the same i.e a Conservative Liberal coalition. If you look back at the predictions of doom and gloom five years back the government had actually been quite succesful, particularly in economic matters which is after all the area that really matters.
Could well see my hope come true.
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>> I would be happy with more of the same
Indeed, its not been that bad.
>>
>> Could well see my hope come true.
Not sure the Libs will do well enough to make that fly.
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I too thing the coalition has made a reasonable fist of things. They have reigned in some of the benefits excesses that happened under the last Labour government (Tax Credits for people earning up to £66k for one) and steadied the ship.
I am however, sick to death of most politicians because they will avoid answering nearly every meaningful question. For example, "Are you going to raise tax/cut spending on defence/cap housing benefit" etc has only three possible answers, either yes, no or we don't know till we see how things pan out". Any attempt at non committal waffling should be ruthlessly dealt with by the interviewer, ie "FFS shut up and stop filibustering you irritating prat and answer the question". Further evasion should be met by "Piddle off and stop wasting everybody's time".
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>> "FFS shut up and stop filibustering you irritating prat and answer the question". Further evasion should be met by "Piddle off and stop wasting everybody's time".
Try coming on like that to Denis Healey or one or two others I can think of... Rudeness to ministers of the crown doesn't work except, sometimes, on live camera. You think they were born yesterday? Just come in the back room and say that again.
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>>
>>Rudeness to ministers of the crown doesn't work except, sometimes, on live camera.
>>
Which is where it should be done.
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>> Which is where it should be done.
It doesn't always work, just sometimes. These people aren't idiots, and rudeness is one of their weapons. They demolish hacks as often as not, believe me. Been there and done it.
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>> >>
>>
>> Not sure the Libs will do well enough to make that fly.
>>
I have a feeling thqt the Conservatives will do slightly better than predicted and compensate for the fall in the Liberal vote
Here's hoping.
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>> I have a feeling thqt the Conservatives will do slightly better than predicted and compensate for the fall in the Liberal vote
So, you know what's going to happen CGN? Damned if I do.
>> Here's hoping.
Apparently you give a damn too.
I don't 'hope' in this case. But I reckon you're wrong. Time for a Labour government.
The people have spoken (or one of them has).
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Of course I know what's going to happen AC Am party to the views of the secret cabal who really rule the country.
They tell you that a return of a Labour government now or any time in the future is not part of thier plans.
Mind you they might be lying, they're a bit devious.
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>> Of course I know what's going to happen AC Am party to the views of
>> the secret cabal who really rule the country.
You are David Icke and I claim my 5 pounds,
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Don't tell everyone. The Babylonian Brotherhood would prefer it be kept secret.
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>> The Babylonian Brotherhood would prefer it be kept secret.
Tchah! Them just forget it to raaaaaaaasclaat.
I think you mean the Babylon by the way. All that stuff they do noisily in vans and then deny. I'd 'forget' it too if I were them.
Labour in coalition with some other party. The time has come.
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Sun 26 Apr 15 at 00:15
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If Labour do become the next Government - and my thinking has been for months that they will- it will lead to 15 + years of Conservative Government.
Why? Because after 2 years either Balls will be fired, or resign and they'll go back to their old habits of tax and spend.. And more of the same.. But the next time will be much worse because of the debt position ... Think that nice Mr Callaghan and "what crisis?"
Last edited by: madf on Sun 26 Apr 15 at 06:34
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No no no not Babylon. Do you think I'm a Rastafarian. That would make me crazy.. No I mean the Babylonian Brotherhood of Reptile Aryan Priest who rule the world. They're very Conservative.
www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/sociopol_whitebrotherhood03.htm
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>> I mean the Babylonian Brotherhood of Reptile Aryan Priest who rule the world. They're very Conservative.
Ah, that's who you mean. And what a concentrated, clipped, to-the-point extract from the writings of the genius Icke. I read it all, every word, in two minutes flat and am now much, much wiser.
I look forward eagerly to devouring the follow-up piece on reptile mugwumps was it? Anyway all will become clear when that piece is posted.
Thanks a bunch CGN. Where would we be without you?
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>> I have a feeling thqt the Conservatives will do slightly better than predicted and compensate
>> for the fall in the Liberal vote
I agree.
I wonder whether there will be a 'Neil Kinnock' factor which will apply to Ed Milliband. Will a sufficiently significant percentage of the electorate think along the lines of 'do I want this rather geeky man representing my country at gatherings of heads of government? No I don't.'
Neil Kinnock lost the 1992 election for Labour.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Rally
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If you like that sort of thing......
There are some interesting graphs on the website below. Perhaps particularly the pie chart on the right of the likelihood of the party, or grouping of parties which will form the government after May 7th.
electionsetc.com/
I love politics.
I hate politicians.
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Has anyone on here ever changed their voting allegiance due to a political speech, media report or third party opinion within the 6 months prior to a General Election?
I haven't. It'd take several years of consistency to get me to change my mind - be that consistently bad or consistently good .
Are there that many fence sitters or undecided people who can be swayed in the final weeks ?
I'd have thought that the opposite was far more likely - i.e. Conservative politician annoys a Labour voter [or vice versa] so much that the latter becomes determined to vote, whereas if he'd not been fired up he might have let it slip.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 27 Apr 15 at 21:35
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>> Are there that many fence sitters or undecided people who can be swayed in the
>> final weeks ?
I suspect relatively few. Most, like you or me have fairly fixed convictions. I've been consistently 'left' since my teens. Partly captured by the charms of the SDP in the eighties but then saw David Owen in his true colours...
Our electoral system of course makes the focus even more narrow. Most seats are, barring 1997 style landslides, safe. Excepting Harrow East (1983) and Watford (1987) I've never voted in a General Election where my vote had any chance of influencing the outcome and both those years being at Tory high tide it didn't then either.
The crude truth is that election will be decided by a few thousand voters in a relative handful of 'swing' seats. The parties increasingly focus accordingly.
We had a chance for a fairer system but threw it away.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 27 Apr 15 at 21:51
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" I've been consistently 'left' since my teens. "
A couple of weeks ago, someone on these pages quoted the adage "If you're not a socialist at 18, then you've not got a soul; if you're still a socialist at 30, then you've not got a brain."
So, the good news, Brompto, is that you needn't bother wearing a cycle-helmet!
;-)
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>>
>> The crude truth is that election will be decided by a few thousand voters in
>> a relative handful of 'swing' seats. The parties increasingly focus accordingly.
>>
But the subtle effect you are missing is to consider how those few thousand form their views. They won't all be fixed in their voting intentions from birth. They are possibly a microcosm of the entire electorate.
The British electorate however narrow has always been extraordinarily sensitive to general wider public opinion, even when boroughs were rotten and a few bought voters sent idle placemen to Westminster. That's why we have had hardly any revolutions and a sort of quasi-democratic consensus usually manages to muddle through.
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I've also been consistently moderate-left since my teens, but won't be voting this time.
We have 5 main candidates in my constituency plus some looney independents:
1) Conservative. Not a Tory, and The sitting MP Theresa Villiers is one of those who abused expenses.
2) Green. Would be attractive if their policies to take the real world into account (Which they may do some day, then watch out!). Can't vote for them.
3) LibDem. Two stoppers. Don't believe in votes at 16. Too pro EU.
4) Labour. Previously supported them but not this time. They also believe in votes at 16, are against fixing the constitution, and hopelessly naive on Europe.
5) UKIP. Good: Would at least give us a vote on the EU to hopefully settle the issue. Bad: Everything else.
-- Londoner (a blast from the past)
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>>
>> -- Londoner (a blast from the past)
>>
We haven't heard from you since January 2014.
Not a problem - I trust?
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Nice to hear from you Londonboy...hope all's ok.
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Hello all. I've been away from the forum because other things took over priority for a while.
I had just bought a new car, then within a week I was made redundant (job was moved to India)! There was no hint or warning from my employer - it was a bolt from the blue.
After many months I managed to find another job but I've been working all hours god sends to try to build up my retirement fund. Even though that contract has now ended, my situation has stabilised somewhat and I can now afford some "free" time for my old hobbies.
Looking through the postings, I'm very pleased to say that the forum is exactly as I remembered it.
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>> 5) UKIP. Good: Would at least give us a vote on the EU to hopefully
>> settle the issue. Bad: Everything else.
Firstly -a declaration of interest - I'm a UKIP member and a local council candidate this year, so I'm not impartial!
UKIP are far more than a single issue party these days.
We have produced a fully costed and independently certified manifesto, covering a full range of affordable measures, from defence to education, to the NHS (NO - despite Labour lies we do NOT intend to make people pay to access it!), to immigration on a fully fair and points based visa system, to housing , to ensuring no-one on the minimum wage pays income tax, etc., etc.
It IS 72 pages long, so I guess many folk will skip reading it - but how many have read the full manifestos from the other parties?
If any of you ARE interested it is available as a downloadable .pdf here:-
www.ukip.org/manifesto2015
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>> We have produced a fully costed and independently certified manifesto,
Who certified it?
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>>
>> >> We have produced a fully costed and independently certified manifesto,
>>
>> Who certified it?
www.ukip.org/fiscalplan
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>> 1) Conservative. Not a Tory, and The sitting MP Theresa Villiers is one of those
>> who abused expenses.
Interesting distinction you make there Londoner.
Historically Tories were the rural wing who favoured protectionism and the corn laws, and later Unionism, the name Conservative tending more to a centre standpoint. I think the distinction now is largely lost, the name Tory used either by opponents pointing to alleged extremism, or by traditionalists within the party. or more commonly columnists wanting shorter headlines.
I'm not sure I'd make the possible differences a matter for voting decision though.
It's a bit like the Protestant and Catholic wings of the Cof E - lost on most people.
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"I've also been consistently moderate-left since my teens, but won't be voting this time.
...
-- Londoner (a blast from the past)"
I was just reflecting that in the past 5 general elections, I had spoiled my ballot (simply by casting it completely unmarked) in 4 elections, and voted for the local equivalent of the Lord Sutch in the fifth. So I can say that I've been consistently disillusioned for most of the past quarter of a century.
I will, however, be voting this time.
On one level, it makes no difference, as I am pretty confident that the SNP will win the seat, though a LibDem victory is within the bounds of possibility.
But I do feel that I ought to vote anyway. Who to vote for? Well, the decision was not entirely straight-forward, and I have actually changed my mind once already during the campaign, and may change my mind again.
However, my current thinking is based on three quizzes to help voters find which party is closest to their opinion:
www.votematch.org/ is probably the best.
uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz is not bad.
www.whoshouldyouvotefor.com/index.php is a bit more basic, but pretty quick.
I was quite interested to see what the results would be. Interestingly enough, for me, all three quizzes pointed in the same direction.
Reading what Pat said above - "I've sort of known where my vote is going for some months now but in recent weeks I would have liked to be able to confirm in my mind that it's correctly placed" - prompted me to post this, just in case Pat or anyone else finds it helpful.
...
-- tyro (something or other from the past)
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>> www.votematch.org/ is probably the best.
>>
>
I tried that, I should vote Greens, followed very closely by UKIP.
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What an odd thing that is. It says I should vote Labour, which was a surprise, but even more surprising is that the most numerous selection for other constituents is Green.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 2 May 15 at 21:05
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Threw me at the end. Deselect who you'd never vote for and showed some icons. I could read four, but looked in vain for something blue for the Conservatives. Turned out to be some sort of green tree, which naturally I thought was the Green Party, but there was another one with Green written on it, so it was a process of deduction.
How long has that been a Conservative logo?
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Crankcase by name and Crankcase by nature.
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Unsurprisingly It suggested I should vote lib dem, i'd love to but they are unelectable.
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QUOTE
I was quite interested to see what the results would be. Interestingly enough, for me, all three quizzes pointed in the same direction.
END_QUOTE
Thanks for the links. I tried them all. Three different results.
1) www.votematch.org/ -> Labour. In the past, yes. Not this time. No way.
2) uk.isidewith.com/ -> LibDem. No chance. EU surrender monkeys.
3) www.whoshouldyouvotefor.com/index.php -> Green. Laughable. I've been through the entire manifesto, and would say that the people who drew it up are probably some of the nicest people you could hope to meet, but hopelessly naive to be let loose amongst the wolves of the real world.
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Thanks Tyro, I have a postal vote and have already voted for the one the link told me I should vote for:)
Pat
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>> I . . . have already voted for the one the link told me I should vote for:)
>>
>> Pat
Whew!
Last edited by: tyro on Sat 2 May 15 at 23:12
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The quiz told me to vote UKIP.....ok, I'll give it a spin as I'm a member anyway. Labour will walk it here unless the Pirate Party gets a really good following next week.
Sir Gerald " cornflake bowl " Kaufman here.
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Remember the pledges to cut down on tax avoidance?
"Labour will declare an immediate, all-out war on tax avoidance and evasion if it wins the 7 May election, pushing emergency laws through parliament designed to raise more than £7.5bn a year.
The plan, involving far higher fines and the closing of loopholes, will form a central part of Labour’s election manifesto, to be unveiled in Manchester on Monday"
So no doubt Mr Miliband is going to fire Mrs Margaret Hodge as a Labour MP? After all he cannot be seen to condone tax avoidance..
"The former head of parliament's public accounts committee - and a fierce critic of tax avoidance and "secretive" offshore funds - has received more than £1.5m in shares from the tax haven of Liechtenstein, according to a report.
The money came through a controversial scheme that lets wealthy Britons move undeclared assets back to the UK without facing criminal action.
Labour's Margaret Hodge was, according to The Times, among the beneficiaries in 2011 of the winding-up of a Liechtenstein trust that held shares in the private steel-trading business set up by her father.
The Times reports that just under 96,000 Stemcor shares handed to Hodge in 2011 came from the tiny principality, which is renowned for low tax rates. Three quarters of the shares in the family's Liechtenstein trust had previously been held in Panama, which Ms Hodge described last month as "one of the most secretive jurisdictions" with "the least protection anywhere in the world against money laundering"."
tinyurl.com/n4wtepf
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Bit of a mixed article, it seems at first she gained them tax free but then turns out it was (I assume) left in a will or similar to her and she paid the tax required as brought the money in to the UK, which I don't have any dramas about. However it does seem odd to use a mechanisim that a commitee that she chaired critisied. Then she goes on to play the 'oh I don't know about these sorts of things' card which she's either lying or incompentant especially with regard to her job.
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Seems the tory angle about the SNP has rattled a few cages in the Labour party.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32501532.
Although the press should use the right terms, Trident isn't being replaced it's the Vanguard class submarines.
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>>
>> Then she goes on to play the 'oh
>> I don't know about these sorts of things' card which she's either lying or incompentant
>> especially with regard to her job.
Her background and links to Oppenheim family are no secret. If the trustees of an estate from which she benefits set matters up in a particular way then she's probably stuck with it. Chair of the Public Accounts Committee is an office elected by the Commons that traditionally goes to an opposition MP. It doesn't make the office holder into a tax accountant.
There are though those in the law who knew both her and her late husband who suggest he but not she was on the side of the Angels. The name Enver Hodge, after the Albanian dictator, wasn't just one person's attempt at humour.
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. Chair of the Public Accounts Committee is an office elected by the
>> Commons that traditionally goes to an opposition MP. It doesn't make the office holder into
>> a tax accountant.
Never suggested she should be but nor is she a layman about tax law and what is the 'correct' thing to do. The routine doesn't wash.
>> There are though those in the law who knew both her and her late husband
>> who suggest he but not she was on the side of the Angels. The name
>> Enver Hodge, after the Albanian dictator, wasn't just one person's attempt at humour.
Totally lost me on that.
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>> >> Enver Hodge, after the Albanian dictator, wasn't just one person's attempt at humour.
>>
>> Totally lost me on that.
>>
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enver_Hoxha
"The 40-year period of Hoxha's rule was politically characterized by the elimination of the opposition, prolific use of the death penalty[1][2] or long prison terms of his political opponents and evictions from homes where their families lived and their internment in remote villages that were strictly controlled by police and the secret police (Sigurimi). His rule was also characterized by Stalinist methods to destroy his associates who threatened his own power."
If I were Enver Hoxha, I'd be annoyed at being compared to Margaret Hodge.
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>> If I were Enver Hoxha, I'd be annoyed at being compared to Margaret Hodge.
>>
Strangely enough i don't know much about Albanian dictators. Guess I'll have to brush up on cold war eastern European leaders before coming back on this thread ;)
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 5 May 15 at 10:10
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Ahh, Albanian radio, or more specifically, Radio Tirana in the early 80s had a hugely powerful medium transmitter and was probably the most left wing radio station you were likely to find. I never found a 'Luxembourg effect' with them, but I'd not be surprised if there was one.
Made Radio Moscow look like a right wing radio station, and believe me, that takes some doing.
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>> Strangely enough i don't know much about Albanian dictators. Guess I'll have to brush up
>> on cold war eastern European leaders before coming back on this thread ;)
The Enver Hodge sobriquet was fairly well known in London due to frequent repetition in the Standard.
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>> >> Strangely enough i don't know much about Albanian dictators. Guess I'll have to brush
>> up
>> >> on cold war eastern European leaders before coming back on this thread ;)
>>
>> The Enver Hodge sobriquet was fairly well known in London due to frequent repetition in
>> the Standard.
>>
Not a big reader of provincial newspapers. Something else for me to brush up on. Hard work on here sometimes ;)
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All three major parties have attached considerable value to clamping down on tax avoidance, an opportunity that has apparently suddenly come within reach. All are deficient and / or unconvincing in the detail of proposed cuts and sources of income.
The Conservatives have the most aggressive deficit reduction plans and will not increase taxes, so arguably have the biggest credibility gap; Labour says it won't borrow to fund its promises and looks set to tax and spend, yet again, gradually reducing the 40% tax level in real terms by not increasing it.
Interesting read, and plenty of ammo to fire at any of them.
One hour video presentation www.ifs.org.uk/events/1148
The full briefing (43 page pdf) www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN170.pdf
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I smiled at a Tory response to a Danny Alexander less than helpful statement about cuts to come, "He is panicking, he knows he is going to loose his seat".
Last edited by: Old Navy on Thu 30 Apr 15 at 15:42
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I wish many years ago people didn't lose their lives fighting for the right to vote.
It puts so much pressure on those of us who don't want to vote for any of them!!
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>>"He is panicking, he knows he is going to loose his seat".>>
I just love the law of unintended consequences :- a common spelling error gives Danny Alexander loose bowels perhaps?
Last edited by: Roger. on Sun 3 May 15 at 07:44
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Equal Ukip and Conservatives....no surprises there.
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This campaign is now characterised by the desperate lengths the politicos will go to to sweep up 0.05% of the vote. Any old crap is being offered to any fringe voter. At least no babies have been kissed.
And as for all the red lines flying around. Well we all know they are lines of sand that will be blown away as soon as they get a sniff of the trappings of power - They will be selling their souls to get a snout in the trough, post election power grab is going to be disgusting feeding frenzy on both sides of the publicity camera.
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The red lines are getting up my nose TBH.
What's the use of a government that has fenced itself in on all sides? It might as well leave the promises with the civil service and take the next 5 years off so it doesn't do any more damage.
Basic problem with democracy I suppose. No point offering tenable plans if it means never getting elected.
They are actually starting to make UKIP sound sensible.
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Ed Miliband intends to erect stone obelisk with pledges in Downing Street ' Rose Garden.
As it's a listed building he'll need planning permission from Westminster Council.. which of course is Conservative controlled...
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>> This campaign is now characterised by the desperate lengths the politicos will go to to
>> sweep up 0.05% of the vote. Any old crap is being offered to any fringe
>> voter. At least no babies have been kissed.
No babies have been kissed, BUT a baby has been born.
Load of eyewash, you say? Possibly, but, it could just make the difference. A national feeling of wellbeing is said to favour the incumbent.
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>> No babies have been kissed, BUT a baby has been born.
Herself came in giggling this morning about the report that the baby had been seen with its proud parents. I thought she'd missed the point though: royal nippers used to be dismissed to the underworld of nurses and domestics. We're being told that these royals are just like the rest of us.
All babies scowl disagreeably most of the time, and this one will be no exception (its elder brother has a terrible royal scowl). They shouldn't have put that knitted bonnet on it though. Makes its head look square, prompting thoughts of its Teutonic ancestry.
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Sun 3 May 15 at 13:18
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Russell Brand has endorsed Miliband.
That's a couple of marginals down the pan.
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>> Russell Brand has endorsed Miliband.
>>
>> That's a couple of marginals down the pan.
And his credibility. Don't tell me, that wasn't arranged.
'Oooo don't vote kiddies its bad"
"Meet a Miliband"
"Oooooooo Vote for the Milliband kiddies"
what a nasty little cheapskate sellout hypocrite.
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>>
>> what a nasty little cheapskate sellout hypocrite.
>>
Exactly.
Plus, Brand must have registered to vote in good time so that he was in a position to vote at all. These days you have to positively register or you slip off the electoral roll.
Why would someone have done so, if he really had no intention of voting as he claimed?
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>> nasty little cheapskate sellout hypocrite.
Whining talentless carphound. Even the cockney accent is put on. Where did the little Scheisse come from? It's a mystery to me. Wish he'd go back there and never be seen again.
I won't waste a Tchah! on him.
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My missus and I have just voted (postal) and have reluctantly voted Tory. I don't like the Tories or most of their policies but one looks at the alternatives and they are even worse (to us anyway), ranging from nutcases to incompetents.
All these election promises are meaningless anyway since it is looking very unlikely that any Party will have a majority, so we will end up with days of wrangling and negotiations, resulting in a hastily assembled dog's breakfast of Govt. and a package of policies that no-one voted for.
I can sense electoral reform coming back on to the political agenda very soon.
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>> All these election promises are meaningless anyway since it is looking very unlikely that any
>> Party will have a majority, so we will end up with days of wrangling and
>> negotiations, resulting in a hastily assembled dog's breakfast of Govt. and a package of policies
>> that no-one voted for.
>>
>> I can sense electoral reform coming back on to the political agenda very soon.
Which if it comes to pass means you will always get a hastily assembled dog's breakfast of Govt. and a package of policies
that no-one voted for.
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True, but at least it will be a slightly fairer hastily assembled dog's breakfast of Govt. and a package of policies that no-one voted for.
As we live in a safe seat, there's almost no point me voting anyway. The problem was back in 2010 we did not have the option of PR, only FPTP or AV, both dire in different ways.
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"The problem was back in 2010 we did not have the option of PR, only FPTP or AV, both dire in different ways."
There is something a little strange about a referendum in which the electorate are told that they get to make the choice, but are only offered two options, when there are other options out there which the public might conceivably vote for. It's a bit like the elections that they used to have in the USSR.
Of course, if the referendum had offered us a choice between FPTP, AV, STV, and the list system, one would then have to pose the question of whether the referendum would be conducted under a FPTP system or an AV system.
However, I'm pretty sure that the British electorate would have played it safe and stuck with FPTP - no matter what they were offered.
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However, I'm pretty sure that the British electorate would have played it safe and stuck with FPTP - no matter what they were offered.
Given that both the Conservatives and Labour were campaigning to continue FPTP, pretty much a given. After all, with any form of proportional representation, the chances of there ever being a majority party thenceforth is a bit unlikely, and to most politicians, snouts in troughs is more important than the hoi poloi..
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>> However, I'm pretty sure that the British electorate would have played it safe and stuck
>> with FPTP - no matter what they were offered.
>>
>> Given that both the Conservatives and Labour were campaigning to continue FPTP, pretty much a
>> given.
Interesting piece on BBC Newsnight blog about how AV might have affected this election:
t.co/APHFaDO8sX
On their numbers the Tories would have gained.
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snipquote. You ought to try it sometime for yourself!!
>> On their numbers the Tories would have gained.
>>
Err.. it's rubbish.
They are comparing a forecast result with another forecast result.
It's meaningless until they have the real numbers.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 5 May 15 at 21:27
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>> After all, with any form of proportional representation, the chances of there ever being
>> a majority party thenceforth is a bit unlikely,
>>
Ah yes, the Scottish theory :-)
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>> >> I can sense electoral reform coming back on to the political agenda very soon.
>>
>> Which if it comes to pass means you will always get a hastily assembled
>> dog's breakfast of Govt. and a package of policies
>> that no-one voted for.
>>
As so often, absolutely spot-on, Zero.
So then we need to formally recognize the next step of electoral reform (which is already well underway) that the really big decisions have to be taken by the electorate as a whole, via participatory democracy and/or a proper referendum.
We must not let the fact that referenda have been badly run in the past colour our view on what they are capable of achieving when organised properly.
Just as war is too important to be left to the generals, politics is too important to be left to the politicians.
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>> >> the really big decisions have to be taken by the electorate
>> as a whole, via participatory democracy and/or a proper referendum.
>>
So when the wrong decisions have been made and things go wrong, who do we blame? Who do we sling out of office?
Do we take the vote away from the people who voted for a disastrous policy, or do we let them go on and do it again?
When every voice counts, who is accountable, who takes responsibility?
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Exactly why I don't like referendums. When you see the rubbish half the country seems to watch on the TV, it's scary to think they even have a vote to decide a Govt. , let alone direct impact on policy.
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>> Exactly why I don't like referendums. When you see the rubbish half the country seems to watch on the TV, it's scary to think they even have a vote to decide a Govt. , let alone direct impact on policy.
It's insane of the PM to promise a plebiscite on Europe. If the electors vote against Europe (they are quite capable of it), the govt will just have to ignore the result.
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>> It's insane of the PM to promise a plebiscite on Europe. If the electors vote
>> against Europe (they are quite capable of it), the govt will just have to ignore
>> the result.
>>
You are either:
a) Stirring it again,
b) Under the influence,
c) Exceptionally ill informed on this matter
If the Government ignored a "No" vote on the EU the Poll Tax riots would look like a picnic.
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Why should the government be determined by only those who watch TV programmes of which you approve?
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>> So when the wrong decisions have been made and things go wrong, who do we
>> blame? Who do we sling out of office?
>>
The electorate blames itself - which is a far, far less toxic situation than a disgruntled electorate which feels that there is an elite which is not listening to it.
The logical extension of your argument is for there to be no democracy whatsoever on the grounds that the people are too uninformed to make ANY choice. This is entirely defeatist. If the electorate are uninformed - then inform them.
Someone has to have the final say, and the system of a political class making all the decisions on behalf of a lazy electorate is out-of-date for the 21st century.
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>> The electorate blames itself
That would be an all-time first.
>> the system of a political class making all the decisions on behalf of a lazy electorate is out-of-date for the 21st century.
We employ politicians to make these decisions. That's because the electorate is disparate and ignorant. Lazy schmazy... the idea of every 'political decision' being made by plebiscite (in any century, not just the oh-so-advanced 21st) is so ludicrous and ignorant that I can't really comment on it, except to dismiss it out of hand as a thoroughly stupid impractical idea.
(I hope you have a good time in Rhodes though Londoner).
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Tue 5 May 15 at 18:05
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>> Lazy schmazy... the idea of every 'political decision' being made by plebiscite (in any century,
>> not just the oh-so-advanced 21st) is so ludicrous and ignorant that I can't really comment
>> on it, except to dismiss it out of hand as a thoroughly stupid impractical idea.
>>
Oh Dear, AC, you've created one of your "straw men" again!
I never said that I favoured "every 'political decision' being made by plebiscite". What I ACTUALLY said was "...the really big decisions have to be taken by the electorate as a whole, via participatory democracy and/or a proper referendum."
Are you seriously suggesting that issue of whether Scotland should remain in the UK should be decided by the politicians, rather than by referring the matter to the people by a referendum?
In your philosophy, why bother to let the people even decide their political masters, in case they make the wrong decision. Go the whole hog and ban elections altogether.
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>> Are you seriously suggesting that issue of whether Scotland should remain in the UK should
>> be decided by the politicians, rather than by referring the matter to the people by
>> a referendum?
If government needs the 'cover' of a referendum then binary questions such as Scottish independence or whether a particular electoral reform should be adopted are suitable questions. What other 'really big decisions' do you think could be decided by participatory democracy?
The budget?
Welfare cuts?
Wars and conflicts?
To my mind referenda are 'once in 10 yrs' tools on major constitutional issues. Otherwise we elect governments to take decisions and to live or die by their consequences at regular elections.
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>> >>
>> The electorate blames itself - which is a far, far less toxic situation than a
>> disgruntled electorate which feels that there is an elite which is not listening to it.
>>
>> The logical extension of your argument is for there to be no democracy whatsoever on
>> the grounds that the people are too uninformed to make ANY choice. This is entirely
>> defeatist. If the electorate are uninformed - then inform them.
>>
>> Someone has to have the final say, and the system of a political class making
>> all the decisions on behalf of a lazy electorate is out-of-date for the 21st century.
>>
>>
We elect a government to make decisions on our behalf because they have the facts available to them to make informed decisions while most of us have neither the time nor the inclination to poor through every one of the often thousands of relevant documents pertaining to any act of parliament. We also need a government to make unpopular decisions from time to time for the long term good. Sexual acts among consenting males would still be an imprisonable offence had decriminalisaton been left to a public vote and many of the legislation outlawing discrimination of people for gender, race or sexual preferences went against popular opinion at the time they were introduced.
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>> My missus and I have just voted (postal) and have reluctantly voted Tory. I don't
>> like the Tories or most of their policies but one looks at the alternatives and
>> they are even worse (to us anyway), ranging from nutcases to incompetents.
I am hoping loads more people do exactly that.
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Election Promises...Read all about it ! Volume 4. - Westpig
