Non-motoring > Greek elections	Miscellaneous
Thread Author: CGNorwich	Replies: 55

New Sun 25 Jan 15 17:46   Greek elections - CGNorwich

Exit polls tentatively suggest Syriza may have secured enough votes to govern the country alone. Will be interesting to see the final result. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 18:16   Greek elections - Robin O'Reliant

FAIL!!! Wrong forum ;-) Reply to this message | Report message       3

New Sun 25 Jan 15 18:21   Greek elections - MD

Get a Grip Man:-0) Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 18:53   Greek elections - Armel Coussine

'The Kapetanios', Verso, tr. from Fr. by me... a job that convinced me that for sheer barmy leftism-at-all-costs, the Greeks have no equals. Mind you the Greek civil war was a convoluted business involving the SS and a range of British and other Western agents, not to mention the Soviet Union and other interested parties. Just pick your way through that lot and you'll see what I mean. I interviewed at length the widow of General Sarafis, a benign (by the standards of the time) sort of centre-right player in the forties and fifties, at the top of a movement called EDES. Her legs had been maimed in an assassination attempt on her husband, bad guys driving a car at them one night. An Englishwoman and very agreeable. She was quite hostile to the leftist ELAS movement thinking its leading militant Aris a nasty piece of work... Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 19:02   Greek elections - Old Navy

>> that for sheer barmy leftism-at-all-costs, the Greeks have no equals. >> But run a close second by the SNP. Reply to this message | Report message       1

New Sun 25 Jan 15 19:52   Greek elections - Armel Coussine

>> the leftist ELAS movement ELAS was Trotkyist really. There was an official Communist group too but ELAS was bigger and had popular support from 'workers and peasants'. Mrs Sarafis was very down on Aris Velouchiotis. She said he was a sadist and bullying homosexual rapist. Her husband by contrast had been a career soldier who took his battalion across to the revolutionary side (and may have been shot for his pains, can't quite remember). It was no time for pussy-cats of course. Mussolini, Hitler, the CIA and our chaps, also no angels. Hell of a thing, the Greek civil war. Makes your blood run cold. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 02:19   Greek elections - Armel Coussine

>> General Sarafis, a benign (by the standards of the time) sort of centre-right player in the forties and fifties, at the top of a movement called EDES. I should have said Sarafis was centr-left, not centre-right. EDES was a socialist outfit. To ELAS though it would have seemed right-wing, bound to betray the revolution... Very intense place politically. It's like an Arab country, everyone seems completely barmy in one way or another. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 18:44   Greek elections - CGNorwich

Yep I know. Mind you a Syriza sounds like the sort of obscure Japanese car that Stu buys so there's your motoring connection. No doubt it will be moved in due course for which I thank the mods in advance. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 19:36   Greek elections - Armel Coussine

R O'R is right, this oughtn't to be in Motoring. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 20:02   Greek elections - Robin O'Reliant

>> R O'R is right, this oughtn't to be in Motoring. >> He could have got away with it too. If only he'd mentioned the price of petrol in Greece. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 21:03   Greek elections - Bromptonaut

Another take: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/25/syriza-uk-left-labour Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 21:06   Greek elections - CGNorwich

Looks like Syriza are heading for an absolute majority. Could well provide a lot of encouragement for other radical left parties in Europe. Reply to this message | Report message       1

New Sun 25 Jan 15 21:16   Greek elections - Bromptonaut

>> Looks like Syriza are heading for an absolute majority. Could well provide a lot of >> encouragement for other radical left parties in Europe. If only..... Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 21:19   Greek elections - Zero

>> Looks like Syriza are heading for an absolute majority. Could well provide a lot of >> encouragement for other radical left parties in Europe. Only if the country doesn't go bust, fall to pieces and be on the end of a military coup. The Guardian movement claims its a transformative movement. Nothing has moved, nothing has been transformed, the people have just voted in some bloke who claims he can do something different. No-one knows if he can - yet Last edited by: Zero on Sun 25 Jan 15 at 21:22 Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 21:32   Greek elections - CGNorwich

But they know that a far left party with a radical agenda can win an election. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 21:38   Greek elections - Zero

>> But they know that a far left party with a radical agenda can win an >> election and if they cock up badly, it will never happen anywhere else ever again. And based on their manifesto and pledges they have the potential to cock up worse than badly. Reply to this message | Report message       1

New Sun 25 Jan 15 21:45   Greek elections - Robin O'Reliant

>> But they know that a far left party with a radical agenda can win an >> election. >> Desperation. They're in such dire straights they'll vote for anyone who can promise a solution. It could just as easily have been a facist party were there one with a charismatic leader. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 22:03   Greek elections - CGNorwich

I agree. Basically the Greek people are being offered a " get out of jail free " card and if you've got nothing to lose why wouldn't you take it. It may all end in tears but until that happens it's going to look highly attractive to some. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 22:30   Greek elections - Falkirk Bairn

Out of the Euro & in with the Drachma ( Version 21st Century) Banks go bust, nobody will lend them a cent....likely to take down others - Cyprus? The entry requirements for the Greeks to the Euro were dubious BUT this allowed the Greeks to go on a massive spending spree until the balloon burst. Euro to Drachma devaluation - Cheap holidays in Greece might start to get their economy moving but a lot of pain between now and some form of financial stability. Wholesale Bankruptcies, worse unemployment, coup d' tat(s)........... who knows????? Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 22:50   Greek elections - No FM2R

As it stands it is difficult to see how Greece can either pay its debts or cause its economy to recover whatever it does. The downside of austerity is how much it can dampen or kill economic activity without curing debt. It seems unlikely that austerity is going to be sufficient to make any material impact on Greece's debts, and given the the economy has shrunk by about a quarter, then even if a miracle occurred and all was suddenly fixed tomorrow, then it would take 15 - 20 years simply to return to the position they were in 3 years ago. It could be perceived that the current approach is more to be seen to be a committed part of the Euro and to be supportive of others also in that zone, and to avoid setting any "bad" precedents than it is any real belief that it is good for Greece. So, that said, one can see the disillusionment with the current approach for even the intelligent, euro-minded forward looking Greeks, never mind their equivalent of Daily Mail readers. The rest of Europe has been protecting itself against Greece's situation and taken into account their position and likely future into their risk assessed economic and investment policies and actions for almost 4 years now. Consequently whatever Greece does is likely to have much more impact on Greece than it will on anybody else. That is not to say that there will be no or only small impact, but simply that there is a difference between now (a potential bad thing) and 3 years ago (a potential disaster). Greece needs to reposition. Given that, it may be that a sudden and thorough move may be easier to take than 20 years of having a wisdom tooth pulled gradually. Politically I doubt they want to leave the Euro, and I doubt that the other Euro membership wants them to leave. But if a bad thing is to be inevitably or most probably faced at some point, both might feel that sooner is better than later. Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 25 Jan 15 at 22:52 Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:01   Greek elections - rtj70

When Greece first needed a bailout, I don't think the Eurozone could risk them leaving the Euro. I am sure by now the Eurozone is in a position to let Greece default. I cannot see how they can write off €190bn of debt and remain in the Euro. A compromise might be to cut interest rates and lengthen the time to repay. But that prolongs the whole thing. Now should I get some Euros tomorrow for a holiday in Greece at the end of March? And another in May? I suspect I'd get even better rates tomorrow. So probably worth risking it, Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:13   Greek elections - No FM2R

>>Now should I get some Euros tomorrow for a holiday in Greece at the end of March? And another in May? Presuming that you are starting with GBP, then I would not recommend it. Buying Euros now for a holiday in the future requires that the exchange rate deteriorates. That doesn't seem all that likely right now. In fact, one would think that either similar or slightly better is more likely. Gaining and advantage by changing now also needs Greece to continue to not only officially use the Euro, but remains expected to continue to use the Euro, and the Greek people continue to want the Euro. Look what happened in Turkey in the mid/late 80s. The incumbent currency was so disliked and distrusted that one was better to travel to Turkey with GBP or USD cash as the man in the shop would give you at least a 20% better price just to get hold of what he felt was a decent currency. The circumstances are different, but I quite expect that turning up in Greece with Dollars or Pounds might be a very good way to get a decent deal on stuff, especially if the Euro is disliked, distrusted, or the expectation of its longevity as the Greek currency is low. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:02   Greek elections - Zero

>> even if a miracle occurred and all was suddenly fixed tomorrow, then it would take >> 15 - 20 years simply to return to the position they were in 3 years >> ago. 3 Years ago? Greece has been a basket case since the Battle of Corinth in 146BC - the 15-20 years is not going to change 1500-2000 of decline. Joiing the EU was a momentary upwards blip. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:04   Greek elections - rtj70

>> Joiing the EU was a momentary upwards blip. Greece never met the criteria for joining the Euro. But were still allowed to. And then borrowed money at the same rate as Germany when they couldn't afford it. Didn't collect taxes... and a whole lot more. Still love the country and people. Last edited by: rtj70 on Sun 25 Jan 15 at 23:04 Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:06   Greek elections - No FM2R

>> Greece has been a basket case since the Battle of Corinth in 146BC Indeed. In fact I seem to recall reading a report in the 80s that said Greek Customs had a larger stock of brand new IBM computers than IBM did due to the amount that was confiscated, held or lost. Nonetheless, the electorate has a short memory and will remain in theirs will be that they are worse off than they were 3 years ago - irrespective of how they compare to 5, 10 or 500 years ago. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:08   Greek elections - Manatee

>> As it stands it is difficult to see how Greece can either pay its debts >> or cause its economy to recover whatever it does. The downside of austerity is how >> much it can dampen or kill economic activity without curing debt. That's the point, isn't it? Greece cannot possibly pay its debts so will default in one way or another, hard or soft. Being in the Euro really complicates things but doesn't change that truth, Fortunately for the rest of us the impact other than on Greece is probably going to be manageable. Spain could be a different matter. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:17   Greek elections - No FM2R

>>Greece cannot possibly pay its debts so will default in one way or another, hard or soft. >>Being in the Euro really complicates things but doesn't change that truth, Quite. So it leaving the Euro is neither a solution or particularly bad or worse than staying in. >>Fortunately for the rest of us the impact other than on Greece is probably going to be manageable. That was my point. And Greece's default has been seen as highly likely for some time. Given that, if you're Greek, the value of austerity is difficult to appreciate. You might as well go nuts and depreciate on $410bn US as suffer and default on $400bn. Reply to this message | Report message

New Sun 25 Jan 15 23:19   Greek elections - Zero

>> Spain could be a different matter. > And the very reason why the EU can not afford to write off the greek debt. If they do, the Spanish will be the next one chomping at the the gate. Before you know it the European central Bank will be bust through poor debts that countries refuse to pay back. Greece has to be seen to fail and fail badly and painfully if they default on purpose Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 01:55   Greek elections - rtj70

The winning party seems arrogant and want to write off debt. I can see a new Drachma soon. No way can they disregard their debt. They may not want to repay it but the country borrowed it. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 02:03   Greek elections - Armel Coussine

Yeah, but they can roll it over for ages. Just pay the service charges. Those are probably quite eye-watering in themselves. Greece sounds a bit like me actually. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 02:05   Greek elections - No FM2R

>>No way can they disregard their debt. Tell Argentina that. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 07:08   Greek elections - madf

Trouble is: it's not only Greek banks in trouble if Greece defaults..German and French ones are as well. Banks in Germany and France have the biggest exposure to Greek debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements they hold $22.6bn (£14.4bn) and $15bn of Greece's government debt respectively. These numbers soar with estimated private sector exposure - to $34bn for Germany and $56.7bn for France. Behind the debt are vast amounts of CDOs - complex financial instruments bought by investors from investment banks to insure the debt - adding another threat from default. tinyurl.com/72w9lrq Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 08:36   Greek elections - Roger.

"May you live in interesting times". Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 08:39   Greek elections - Lygonos

The World won't shudder to a halt if Greece defaults/leaves the Euro. The World Order on the other hand..... As much as it is easy to pour scorn on the Greeks for their squnadering money, corrupt systems, and so forth, the creditor nations only have themselves to blame for fuelling an unsustainable system. Who offers condolences to pay-day lenders who can't get their money back from a bankrupted client? Any 'contagion' effect is most strongly going to be felt by those banks and nations who have 'lent' money they didn't even have in the first place. Feck 'em. Reply to this message | Report message       1

New Mon 26 Jan 15 09:42   Greek elections - Cliff Pope

The countries and banks must have known when they "lent" the money that it was a gift, not a loan. No sane individual would have lent money to Greece, but presumably banks do it because they see pouring good money after bad as the only way of continuing to get any return at all. I've just read that, surprisingly, a country that has just defaulted is actually a better risk for further lending than one that hasn't. Lightning, twice, same place, perhaps? Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 10:41   Greek elections - Manatee

>> I've just read that, surprisingly, a country that has just defaulted is actually a better >> risk for further lending than one that hasn't. Lightning, twice, same place, perhaps? That is clearly rubbish, bit as it was probably said by one of the aforementioned "bankers" it isn't a surprising statement. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 11:02   Greek elections - Cliff Pope

>> >> That is clearly rubbish, bit as it was probably said by one of the aforementioned >> "bankers" it isn't a surprising statement. >> No, by Roger Bootle in the Daily Telegraph: www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11338549/Greece-leaving-the-euro-would-be-no-disaster.html Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 11:24   Greek elections - madf

Roger Bootle actually said in the above article "Once a country has defaulted, the prospect of another default in the next year or two is actually lower." My bold. As for years 3 onwards, see this list of historical defaults.. 5-6 year afterwards appears to be danger.... Antigua and Barbuda (1998–2005)[18] Argentina (1827, 1890, 1951, 1956, 1982, 1989, 2002-2005[18] (see Argentine debt restructuring), 2014[19][20][21]) Bolivia (1875, 1927,[18] 1931, 1980, 1986, 1989) Brazil (1898, 1902, 1914, 1931, 1937, 1961, 1964, 1983, 1986–1987,[18] 1990[18]) Canada (Alberta) (1935)[18] Chile (1826, 1880, 1931, 1961, 1963, 1966, 1972, 1974, 1983) Colombia (1826, 1850, 1873, 1880, 1900, 1932, 1935) Costa Rica (1828, 1874, 1895, 1901, 1932, 1962, 1981, 1983, 1984) Dominica (2003–2005)[18] Dominican Republic (1872, 1892, 1897, 1899, 1931, 1975-2001[18] (see Latin American debt crisis), 2005) Ecuador (1826, 1868, 1894, 1906, 1909, 1914, 1929, 1982, 1984, 2000, 2008) El Salvador (1828, 1876, 1894, 1899, 1921, 1932, 1938, 1981-1996[18]) Grenada (2004–2005)[18] Guatemala (1933, 1986, 1989) Guyana (1982) Honduras (1828, 1873, 1981) Jamaica (1978) Mexico (1827, 1833, 1844, 1850,[18] 1866, 1898, 1914, 1928-1930s, 1982) Nicaragua (1828, 1894, 1911, 1915, 1932, 1979) Panama (1932, 1983, 1983, 1987, 1988-1989[18]) Paraguay (1874, 1892, 1920, 1932, 1986, 2003) Peru (1826, 1850,[18] 1876, 1931, 1969, 1976, 1978, 1980, 1984) Surinam (2001–2002)[18] Trinidad and Tobago (1989) United States (1779 (devaluation of Continental Dollar), 1790, 1798 (see The Quasi-war), 1862,[22] 1933 (see Executive Order 6102),[18] 1971 (Nixon Shock) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default Last edited by: madf on Mon 26 Jan 15 at 11:24 Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 11:26   Greek elections - Mapmaker

Did anybody else hear the new Greek Finance Minister on Today this morning? What a charming educated chap. He quoted Dylan Thomas and referred to "You Fellows" (I think I've got that right, just in case anybody goes back to listen again) and generally sounded as though he had learned his impeccable English in the 1930s. I must say, given Greece is totally stuffed in the Euro, and will be so for decades to come, I think I'd have voted for them too. (For all that they say they're committed to the Euro.) Anyway, I know where I'll be going on holiday as soon as Grexit happens. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 12:13   Greek elections - WillDeBeest

I'll be there the week after next. Probably too soon to notice any change - especially as I've not been there before. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 12:31   Greek elections - CGNorwich

"especially as I've not been there before." Stunningly beautiful particularly the islands Friendly and welcoming people (don't mention the Turks) Greeks have a love affair with concrete but have never quite mastered using it. Too many cats. Reply to this message | Report message

New Mon 26 Jan 15 20:36   Greek elections - No FM2R

For those who are *really* interested........... www.minfin.gr/sites/default/files/financial_files/Bulletin_75.pdf Reply to this message | Report message

New Tue 27 Jan 15 09:24   Greek elections - CGNorwich

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/11243593/Matt-cartoons.html Reply to this message | Report message

New Tue 27 Jan 15 16:37   Greek elections - No FM2R

Interesting, albeit simplistic, article. Robert Preston's comments may prove to be very relevant. Reply to this message | Report message

New Tue 27 Jan 15 16:46   Greek elections - No FM2R

Considerably more interesting with an actual link to the article, of course. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30995480 Reply to this message | Report message

New Tue 27 Jan 15 20:19   Greek elections - Lygonos

£250bn or so of debt, so the Greeks are paying something like £10bn/yr debt interest which is £1000 per man/woman/child pa. Nae chance that debt will not be reduced in due course despite the impotent utterance from the other members of the EU. Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 08:36   Greek elections - madf

The last Greek bailout was not designed to help the Greeks but prevent EC creditors from having to write off their debts (and hence make a few German banks bust). This was tacitly admitted at the time. Unless there is a write off of the debt i.e default any solution will not work in the long term. The Germans refuse to allow any write off. So any "solution" without a write off will be a fudge... Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 08:48   Greek elections - Westpig

When will Greek holidays be cheap enough to bother going back to? I used to like my Greek holidays, nice people, sun, sea ,sand etc. Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 09:05   Greek elections - CGNorwich

That's only going to happen if Greede leaves the Eurozone and the replacement currency is massively devalued against the Pound. The result would be soaring costs and widespread poverty for the average Greek worker but you will get your cheap holiday. Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 10:57   Greek elections - Westpig

>> That's only going to happen if Greede leaves the Eurozone and the replacement currency is >> massively devalued against the Pound. The result would be soaring costs and widespread poverty for >> the average Greek worker but you will get your cheap holiday. >> Things are only worth what people will pay for them. The Eurozone has been disastrous for Greece. Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 13:40   Greek elections - rtj70

>> The Eurozone has been disastrous for Greece. It probably has been for most Greeks. But some have done rather well. I can think of a hotel owner on Lesvos who's expanded his accommodation over the years and gets funding from the EU. There's no way he needs as much accommodation as he has because he'll not fill it although the apartments could eventually be sold as homes. No idea of details but I do know he's 'borrowing' money to fund this. Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 14:13   Greek elections - Manatee

Greece really illustrates the challenge of the EU project; mashing together very disparate economies. In our terms, Greece is basically corrupt. Public finances have always been diverted for private gain. Everybody wanted to work for the government so they could retire at 50. Paying tax has been more or less optional and still is, so there has been little progress. The country never met the criteria for joining the Euro in the first place. I don't mean to say they are all crooks. I visited Greece a dozen or so times in 2003-4 and got to know some thoroughly decent people. But they have very different norms. There were two sets of procedures for everything, the official one and the real one. Corruption though still endemic has reduced by all accounts, although some apparently think that has made things worse - at least a bribe to a public official might have resulted in getting something done, now when they won't take a bung, nothing works! Then there is the "small country" syndrome - with 5 million people, the people with power and money are far more likely to know each other or have overlapping business interests, so while it is a truism that people will continue to do business with their friends, it happens a lot more frequently when there are fewer of them. Reply to this message | Report message       1

New Wed 28 Jan 15 15:05   Greek elections - Zero

>> £250bn or so of debt, so the Greeks are paying something like £10bn/yr debt interest >> which is £1000 per man/woman/child pa. >> >> Nae chance that debt will not be reduced in due course despite the impotent utterance >> from the other members of the EU. Any thinking person knows they can't pay it back, we all know the GNP can not support such a huge burden of debt, BUT the greek peeps can not be shown that you can just walk away from a huge chunk of the debt without some pain. In due course when the flack had died down and over time the debt would have been written off in chunks. Now of course the greek peeps have made it it impossible. Serves them right, if they want to live in a 1st world economy they should pay 1st world income tax. Last edited by: Zero on Wed 28 Jan 15 at 15:06 Reply to this message | Report message       1

New Wed 28 Jan 15 16:05   Greek elections - madf

As the Greeks have stopped all privatisdations NOW, they clearly hope someone is going to bung them the odd 12B euros they need by end March to pay interest etc... Interesting times.. Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 16:56   Greek elections - rtj70

The privatisation of the port and the electric company were conditions agreed in the last bailout. So they have gone back on that. We all know they cannot pay back the money borrowed. But to write it all off now is wrong and I hope it doesn't happen. I have many Greek friends and we are due to go to Greece in March/April and May. Perhaps it won't be possible. If this was an individual who had borrowed and spent to much and could finance the debt, they would have to be declared bankrupt. A terrible thing to go through no doubt but it's a way of moving on. And the blame is mostly on the individual although the lenders should have lent so much. Greece is similar. I fear there could be a lot of pain ahead for the Greeks. And if there's a run on the banks things could get bad pretty quickly. So here's my suggestion - Apple buys Greece. Well it can afford it. Reply to this message | Report message

New Wed 28 Jan 15 17:43   Greek elections - madf

So here's my suggestion - Apple buys Greece. Well it can afford it. How much will Greece pay Apple to buy it? At present, Greece is worth c minus 260B Euro... Reply to this message | Report message