November looks bleak for UK car sales
Overall down 27% but some makes down 50+% compared to November 2019.
On the other hand the odd manufacturer nearly holding their own / increasing in the case of Smart, admittedly from a low base.
Friend was thinking of a new car as it approaches 50K miles - then thought they were only doing 200-250 miles per month and decided against it.
The makers really need to get their act together to shift the cars that are not selling. Instead of raising prices by £000s in the last 2 years surely a fire sale must be around the corner. So far their reactions have been on finance % & depressing by subsidising PCP rates
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Manufacturers seem to have reacted by building fewer cars - reading the couple of model specific forums I keep an eye on there's lots of complaints about extended lead-times.
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Covid may still be a barrier for many. Private new car sale are frequently to older people who will be more concerned about social distancing and risk.
Less business travel in the last 9 months means that companies can put off purchase and replacement, particularly with high levels of business uncertainty and some companies making large losses.
For both businesses and private buyers the increasing capability of EV and the likely ban on ICE means that where possible they may put off new buys until (a) the situation is clearer, and (b) more EVs come to the market with better performance and price over the next year.
Finance and lease deals coming to an end may give opportunities for manufacturers to sell, but I suspect both private and business buyers are wary of signing up to a further 3 (?) year deal, many preferring to extend their existing contracts where possible.
Unlike the good old days, a new car with routine servicing will provide reliable transport for 100k and six years or more. So it is entirely feasible to put off a purchase for several months or even a couple of years.
I would not expect the market to recover any time soon!
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www.speakev.com/threads/are-ev-sales-doubling-every-year.16466/page-43#post-2928793
Full EV sales now over 9%, with PHEV almost 7% (cf. 3.0% and 2.8% respectively 12 mths earlier)
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The business model is broken. It has been for sometime but decreasing car sales have made it obvious. That together with the apocalypse and all that has entailed spells doom for the dealer.
Cars don't need as much care. The care they need involves huge capital cost. By and large people want cheap/convenient service not free coffee in a palace. People are increasingly happy to buy from the low overhead online businesses. Test drives /demonstrators cost money and don't result in sales from the dealership like they used to.
The relationship between the manufacturer and the dealer has increasingly become more one sided and more expensive, more capital intensive, less profitable in a decreasing volume business.
Average mileages are massively lower this year, so there is less servicing and genuinely less need to replace vehicles because of mileage (Humph being an excellent example).
And so it goes on. And all this on a business model largely developed in the 60s when a car went from new to dead in 40k miles with a ton of care along the way..
Dealerships have been in trouble since the 80s.In their current form they will die.
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There is no doubt dealers have big problems but not all of the above is correct.
Cars in the past were not "dead in 40k miles". They were less reliable than today but repairs were relatively cheap and it was easy to keep them on the road for years. The exception was a period (late 60s - early 70s?) when councils increasingly used salt to deice roads but British cars had virtually no paint underneath let alone underseal and quickly rusted to death. Possibly we will soon see the modern equivalent when the astronomical cost of spares such as electronic modules and anti-pollution devices makes repair of older cars uneconomic.
Thanks to the complexity of modern cars owners are becoming increasingly likely to stick with dealers for repairs and servicing. In the past many (most?) private owners resorted to small garages or DIY after the first year or so. Hence the success of Haynes manuals. This trend is reinforced through very long warranties even if strictly speaking the warranty does not demand it. Hence, dealers benefit regardless of whether cars are bought directly from them or online.
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>>Cars in the past were not "dead in 40k miles".
Insofar as car dealerships they 100% absolutely were dead in 40k miles. All further servicing and repairs were done by independents.
>>Thanks to the complexity of modern cars owners are becoming increasingly likely to stick with dealers for repairs and servicing.
Perhaps, but how will the dealerships cope with their enormous overheads if service only organisations spring up? I know Halfords tried it to an extent, as did others, but things have moved on.
In any case, a dealership does not build huge premises and showrooms because of servicing which in any case requires less and less workshop space and more and more capital investment.
On top of that cars require less frequent, less detailed and less manual servicing even in normal times. But during an apocalypse when mileage drops through the floor, so do servicing demands.
Further, warranty work is decreasing in frequency and the rates are now dictated. And a *dealership* cannot survive on warranty work alone, even if there was enough of it, which there isn't.
So, as I said, the business model is broken. And dealerships will die.
One would expect some kind of technical, delivery / service / warranty / recall / repair organisations to replace them. But the dealership model is dead in the gutter.
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In years gone by I suspect servicing and warranty was probably a way to get punters into the showroom to promote the brand and sell.
When I take the car in, the service reception usually leads you through the showroom. Comfy seats, free coffee, brochures while you inevitably wait. You never go into the oily bits!
But most private car purchases are now PCP or lease. With online comparison sites it becomes increasingly difficult for a dealer to always be competitive - so often they end up providing test drives (for those who actually test what they are purchasing) rather than selling cars.
It is therefore unsurprising that manufacturers would like to cut dealers out of the sales process and deal with customers directly via internet. Much the same has happened, albeit for lower ticket items. For white goods, IT, TVs etc Currys seems to be the only physical retailer of any size left - and locally they now share one store with PC World where once they were separate.
No idea what the typical dealer cost per sale is, but with fancy showrooms, cash tied up in stock, sales and admin staff, other overheads it is unlikely to be trivial - would guess 5-10% of the sales price.
Last edited by: Terry on Sat 5 Dec 20 at 02:25
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>>Currys seems to be the only physical retailer of any size left
Walk round Currys & see the washing machine/TV/Computer etc then go home and order it from Amazon (cheaper), Richer Sounds (Cheaper still), John Lewis (5 year guarantee for free).
I decided to buy a new i-phone 2 months ago - looked at several sites - Currys was local & only a few ££s dearer BUT they did not carry stock in the shop!!! You place an order & it comes in a day or 2 later - why pay extra to Currys and still have to wait?
My local Honda dealer closed. Needing bits & pieces my Indie used to get bits for my car 5 minutes down the road. Nearest Honda Glass Palace is now Stirling - all lights & gleaming tiled floors but they do not seem to carry much in the way of spares. He orders from down south and it arrives next day, might be Cox Motor Parts who seem to offer swift parts service.
It's not just the Honda dealer that fails to carry stock - Evans Halshaw local Vauxhall site has a cupboard for a parts stock room - Dingbro, Eurocarparts etc etc seem to have run away with what used to be a Main Dealer money maker back in the day.
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>>Cox Motor Parts
Ha! .. I recently sourced 5 litres of Mobil 1 from them via eBay = excellent service + lightspeed delivery.
I crawled under my Subaru and changed the engine oil properly - in my 69th year (cough / wheeze)
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I replaced two Kia Picanto clutches in my two daughters cars over Lockdown 1 at 64.
Fortunately it was not time dependent so was able to do the job at my leisure.
I did however suggest to myself, 'Never again.' We will see :)
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The thing about doing-it-yourself is you know it's done correctly. My last oil change was carried out at a Subaru pain dealer and the clowns overfilled it by quite some way.
I was a tad reluctant to consider changing the CVT transmission oil (no dipstick) but having watched Mr Subaru do it on YouTube I'm more willing to get down and dirty.
He had his car raised on 4 axle stands - sod that!
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>> - Currys was local & only a few ££s dearer BUT they did not carry
>> stock in the shop!!! You place an order & it comes in a day or
>> 2 later - why pay extra to Currys and still have to wait?
Currys are certainly competitive price wise with online retailers for most white goods.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 5 Dec 20 at 21:27
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I don't make a great habit of buying white goods but recently bought new oven and hob - Currys more expensive by £150.
Went to buy a laptop a couple of years ago - Currys slightly more expensive but did not have the models in stock that I wanted.
They (along with other retailers) also annoy me somewhat by trying to charge delivery on items that are heavy or clearly won't fit in most cars. Delivery then becomes a mandatory surcharge.
I don't mind paying a few ££ extra for local availability and quick wish fulfillment, but it is clear which way much of retail is going!
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We have just bought a new tumble dryer.
Currys price same as ao.com. Ordered on Saturday evening for delivery on Monday.
Quoted price showed £30 for delivery. However when we got to payment there was no delivery charge shown so that worked out as a bargain.
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My experiences regarding servicing at Kia dealerships are well documented. My wifes Kia Soul is due its annual service and is still within its 7 year warranty.
However this time I'm getting it done at my local garage which is in sight of my house.
As such I've sourced receipted genuine Kia parts - well it only needs an oil filter.
To my surprise they had it in stock!! That's a first. I should imagine that they only carry a small stock of service items and even then look at their weekly service bookings and order the service kits as required.
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Nov Car Sales down 27%, Private sales down 32% - Bill Payer
