I thought I'd start a new thread for this topic.
2035 is only 15 years away. Worryingly I (hopefully and all things being equal) will then be renewing my licence every 3 years. I may have bined my HGV licence and I may no longer be wringing the neck out of a motorcycle around the countryside. Many of us here are of similar maturing years.
We may have bought our vehicles in a particular way and, unless on Lease or PCP, have an eye on trade in values somewhere down the line.
But what are our considerations as we slide towards 2035. We know car ownership will never bring untold riches but we have an eye on and are prepared to tolerate depreciation.
So in 2034 are we going to buy a 3Ltr diesel with the possibility in a years time its worthless?
Or are we going to buy it in the hope that 2nd hand ICE vehicles will become more desirable because people will be reluctant to move on?
Or are we maybe going to slip into PCP in 5 years to minimise our financial 'investment' 10 years along.? Will the trade see it coming and withdraw PCP?
Or are we going to move across to Electric sooner rather than later (despite the cost) so we are not left with potentially worthless vehicles?
Discuss :)
Last edited by: Fullchat on Thu 6 Feb 20 at 21:07
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Plenty of time to decide closer to the time.
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There will be transporters by then - just like on Star Trek.
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Bit too early to tell, we bought a diesel car just the other year so plenty of time yet especially as it's not even 7 years old. When the late 2020s come around it'll be clearer what the options are and where best to spend your money.
Until then I'll just continue as I am. I'm not going to worry much at all about it.
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One thing it will mean is that the question of a manual or automatic car or even a driving licence will be irrelevant. All will auto. My boys drive manual. My daughter will be learning to drive in 18 months. She will probably learn manual, but in reality, by 2025 why bother learning manual.
My car is over 8 years old with just under 60,000 miles. Its a 3.0 CDi. It might just last me till 2035... when I will be 70.
By then car ownership will fall and we will rely on driverless taxis. Only the wealthy (with classic cars) or the poor, will drive themselves.
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With this very thought in mind, I lashed out on a big engined petrol car, knowing it would be my last Swansong with some of the finest ICE available. Going to run till it becomes uneconomical to do so, around the 130k mark I reckon, about 6 years time.
Thats 6 years more of EV development, I shall be 72 and my driving patterns may well have changed by then. We will be 9 years away from the deadline by then too. Seems a good time for me to take stock, and a good period to make a more informed choice.
Till then BAU
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"I shall be 72 and my driving patterns may well have changed by then."
The choice is made for you. Electric.
tinyurl.com/rpw6659
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I've a 3 year old diesel Outlander auto bought 3 years ago. I knew the depreciation would be horrendous but I expect to keep it as long as its no bother so by then it would probably be worth very little anyway. It does what I need very well.
I also have my MX-5 which is a pure toy/holiday car. Last chance thinking, both for me and motoring for pleasure. I'll keep it for as long as I have a licence and can get in and out of it.
I've been thinking I should get it insured for the 'kids' who won't be able to do this when they retire, if they ever do. My son has preempted that by buying a 2010 2.0 Sport Tech of his own. Not so easy for my daughter who is more or less permanently attended by a 3 and a 5 year old.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 6 Feb 20 at 21:43
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If I'm still around in fifteen years time I'll be 82 and probably quite content with getting round by Zimmer and bus. 2035 is a long way off though and government targets have a habit of being "Adjusted" when promises made years before become impractical.
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My Mk5 will be 14 yrs old this year, I'm attached to her as we have been through a lot and travelled all over the place including Europe but I'm realising it's probably time to think about moving on, if I bought the car I really want right now (MK7.5 GTi Performance plus extras) then I'm hoping it will take me up to around the 2035, then I'll see where we actually are in UK with EVs.
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I already own a PHEV and I really didn't (and don't ) worry too much about trade-in values, nor have I planned for when it might get replaced. I didn't and don't have any unscratched itches as far as owning fancy cars go. As with many things on my life, I quite like (though am not obsessive) about being an "early adopter" and maybe doing a teeny bit for the planet along the way. I actually have grown to like the quietness and smoothness of driving on electric, and the convenience of hardly ever having to visit a petrol station, so I reckon if I changed the car I'd most likely replace it with a full EV.
SWMBO has a "hybrid" Yaris. I have no technical knowledge to support me, but I'm dubious that it is significantly better than an regular petrol version. It hardly ever runs for more than a few hundred yards in full electric mode, and if the electric mode is supporting the ICE I'm surprised it doesn't return higher mpg. Next door has a hybrid Kia and I get the same feeling in that.
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I really hope the future post 2035 doesn't end up being very boring...
In many of the EV posts I read on various forums there seem to be little mention of the 'driving' experience, fingers-crossed they will bring out some kind of GTi option for EVs otherwise everything will be very 'grey'.
Maybe it will be a bit like Mad Max and you'll have to buy a jerry-can of liquid fuel on the black-market to run your ICE car... what about all of the historic aircraft? probably consigned to a dusty hanger never to see the sky again.
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2035 is proposed as the date from which they will now longer be sold new. I fully expect ICE to be around for at least 10 years longer although numbers on the road will dwindle.
In the run up to 2035 we will can assess whether EV alternatives deliver adequate functionality:
- if no the government may delay the implementation date
- if yes it will become increasingly unattractive for ICE through taxation, city centre bans etc etc.
For fuel availability something will be available for somewhat longer - eg: in the traction engine world they can still get coal, albeit from a limited number of suppliers.
My current car is 18 months old. It may be the last ICE I will buy (fun cars aside) as it will be kept until it starts costing real money - perhaps in 8 years or 120-150k. Good chance its replacement will be electric if pace of improvement is maintained.
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Technology will win and new electric car sales will be a very high percentage of sales well before then. As in other areas of tech you will get the enthusiasts who will stick with ICE for as long as possible but at best it will be like a niche that the mass market will avoid.
Volume and pricing will make ICE a plaything for the wealthy. And they will only be useable in limited areas, not cities.
A small recent example is that my CD deck was playing up. I thought it best to buy a new one thinking it would be around a hundred quid. After all Bluray players use similar technology and are available for half that and a CD drive for a PC is £15 upwards. Nope. Best for a decent new CD Player was £180.
Once economies of scale go prices will fly upwards. Which could of course make used cars valuable but I wouldn't bet on it. The kids will be electric.
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There was a piece on Google news the other day that I meant to post on, but never got around to, about an extensive study that had been carried out in three major UK cities.
It surprisingly found that there was more pollution particle-wise from tyres than from diesel engines, and that diesel vehicles actually cleaned the air they were driven through - some type of test carried out at the air-intake and exhaust. I'll see if I can re-find it and post the link.
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Apparently the study was carried out by Auto Motor and Sport, but I don't seen able to find it yet!
However here is a link to that study on Fleet Europe website , I`m sure those interested may have more success tracking down the original than me!
tinyurl.com/uxek3kn
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I doubt the claims being made - they are almost certainly selective in the conclusions and ignore some fundamental questions.
When burning fuel and air (with particulates) the component parts of the toxic mix do not somehow disappear. There are only a few options:
- the gases (oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen) are broken down and releaased separately
- the toxic chemicals are re-engineered to produce non-toxic compounds
- the car stores the toxic components and later releases them in huge quantities (regeneration)
Diesels are clearly now less polluting than they were - but don't kid yourself that they are the answer to all the problems.
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Nobody in this thread seems to have considered the possible problems of continuing to run ICE cars as 2035 approaches, assuming the present proposals come about.
The number of filling stations has been dwindling as long as I can remember. The economics of petrol/diesel sales will get steadily worse as the proportion of EVs grows so as 2035 approaches it may be as difficult to fill up as it is now to charge your EV during a journey. Regardless of whether existing ICE cars are still legal after 2035 by then low or zero emission zones are likely to be the norm for most urban areas. Hence actually using your ICE car as regular transport may become near to impossible for many or at least incur large daily charges.
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Time to restore the hard shoulders on motorways so all those EVs can safely park when there is a traffic jam ?
New highway code item? When the motorway is closed , please make your way to the hard shoulder and wait.
Today a can or two of petrol can often get an ICE on its way in a few minutes. Has the AA now got mega charger trucks to attempt the same recovery?
I forgot that all EVs will have a range of 800 miles by then.
Optimist moi ? :-)
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Is an EV any more likely to run out of juice in a jam than an ICE car? Probably less so as they consume no energy other than accessories when stopped.
Only one I've ridden in is a Zoe and it had something looking very similar to and ordinary car's fuel gauge. They should know they're about to run out and stop at services for at least a quick charge. Just like the 'splash and dash' stop I'm occasionally forced to make with ICE.
I'd imagine AA etc will acquire, if they've not got them already, either battery packs or something like an aircraft ground power unit to quick charge stranded EVs.
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>> Only one I've ridden in is a Zoe and it had something looking very similar
>> to and ordinary car's fuel gauge. They should know they're about to run out and
>> stop at services for at least a quick charge. Just like the 'splash and dash'
>> stop I'm occasionally forced to make with ICE.
A 30 mile range splash and dash in a ICE cars takes 3 minutes. Not so in an EV. Splash and dash an EV a lot of times and you are looking at reduced battery pack longevity.
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 8 Feb 20 at 12:29
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what happens if you are snow-bound over night ? do they have heaters? if so, how long will your batteries last? and will you still have enough power to continue when you are able to.
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>> what happens if you are snow-bound over night ? do they have heaters? if so,
>> how long will your batteries last? and will you still have enough power to continue
>> when you are able to.
>>
EVs have heaters. Like a ICE car it depends on how much you have left in the tank/battery.
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>> what happens if you are snow-bound over night ? do they have heaters? if so,
>> how long will your batteries last? and will you still have enough power to continue
>> when you are able to.
Friend and former colleague of mine got stuck on the M6 in snow 20years ago. Overnight.
Choice of running engine and heat or having enough juice to move once they were dug out.
Nothing new under the sun.
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This article says of Tesla " a Model 3 LR will be able to add 75 miles of driving range in as little at 5 minutes." cleantechnica.com/2019/06/10/top-gear-declares-tesla-model-3-fastest-charging-car-in-the-world/
OK that assumes the best car and charging stuff currently (haha) available but I suspect it will have improved somewhat by 2035 (maybe even sooner).
And an article here www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/will-dc-fast-charging-harm-electric-car-batteries/ suggests that ...
"thanks to advanced battery management systems (BMS) that carefully control temperature, they are leaps and bounds longer lasting than the mobile phone and laptop batteries that most consumers are used to.
"The life expectancy of the Leaf's battery is about 70-80 percent of capacity after 10 years of normal use. Frequent fast chargers--more than once or twice per day--can expect performance on the lower end of that range"
I understand that even in my old-tech (effectively 2012 design) EV the "top and bottom" cells of the battery are not used, or at least are kept aside to be assigned in the event of degradation of other cells.
Of course EVs have heating, as Bromps said use of these obviously uses your available energy just as it does now. At a standstill my car doesn't have an engine running but everything else still works. Aren't there ICE cars which do that too???
I see ore ICE vehicles stranded at the side of the road than EVs. Maybe to do with the vastly more complex motors that they have, all those pistons, gears and spark plugs!! :-)
Rather annoyingly I had to have my rear brakes pads and discs replaced last week, at 50k. One side was not worn at all (as most EV braking is regenerative and the brakes themselves are hardly used). They needed replacement because the caliper had stuck on. It wasn't even seized...they said it probably stuck do to lack of use.
But what's becoming clear that judgements and opinions are often based on a severe lack of info about EVs, which surprises me here in a motoring forum.
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 8 Feb 20 at 15:27
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The snowbound conundrum.
It never ceases to amaze me that drivers still ignore severe weather forecasts, lying snow, traffic reports etc. Insurance companies see an approx 50% increase in claims in icy conditions.
Some motorists are obviously convinced that they have premier league driving skill, judgement and personal assessment of road conditions. So convinced are they that they do not bother with bottled water, a few bars of chocolate, warm clothes and boots, and a blanket in the boot.
And they wonder why they get stuck and blame the weather forecast, emergency services, other motorists - anything but their own stupidity. There may be the very rare emergency which forces you on the roads in poor conditions (eg wife just gone into labour etc) but otherwise wait.
What has this got to do with EVs - as their max range approaches ICE the different power sources are increasingly incidental to the go or stay decision.
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>> So convinced are they that they do not bother with bottled
>> water, a few bars of chocolate, warm clothes and boots, and a blanket in the
>> boot.
>>
>> And they wonder why they get stuck and blame the weather forecast, emergency services, other
>> motorists - anything but their own stupidity.
A spade or shovel is useful too. That, wellies and an extra coat and/or woolly go in if there's snow on ground or forecast.
You can get caught in hot weather too. I got stuck in the M1 15>14 for 90+ minutes in 2018. Cloudless day in June, upper twenties outside. I'm bad at drinking water generally and hadn't grabbed a bottle - only going down to Heathrow to pick up Mrs B. Got out of jam in end by following others via an emergency cross over to the northbound.
Lesson about water probably still not learned.
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... or more simply don't venture out in snow unless absolutely essential.
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Just caught the end of a price about EVs on R4 ‘You and Yours’, a guy from What Car? spoke about EV and battery life among other things, then there was a ‘listeners’ question about resell values of ICE cars now and up to 2035.
He reckons that there should be no difference, he even said that if you bought an ICE car just before 2035 and then ran it for another 30-40 years there wouldn’t be any problems!
Really!!!
He also said that petrol cars might go up in value!
Maybe my ears were deceiving me…
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... always assuming that with the dwindling demand the number of petrol stations doesn't make petrol cars as difficult to tank up as EVs are now - and of course assuming that that the Govt don't tax petrol heavily to discourage use - and even possibly introduce a "rationing" scheme to reduce dependency.
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There may be two opinions which at their extremes run as follows:
Assumption 1
EVs fail to make any real improvements to current technology. ICE remains the technology of choice. People reluctantly buy EVs which remain more expensive to buy with limited range and issues over recharging. Government pushes ahead with the ban in 2035.
ICE remains in use for a couple of decades past 2035, price of ICE increases due to unsatisfied demand, no problems with fuel stations.
Assumption 2
Improvements to EV technology continues with increased range, reduced purchase costs due to economies of scale and development, recharging issues overcome. Driverless vehicles start becoming a popular option and used for local deliveries, taxis etc. Transition starts to become a flood by 2025 and by 2035 no one wants a marginalised ICE due to closure of fuel stations, lack of investment in facilities, bans in most towns and all cities.
Both are valid scenarios - my money is on a variant of Assumption 2 - although others may feel that (1) has promise!
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Assumption 2, largely driven by the hassle involved in owning an internal combustion engine.
Banned from city centres across Europe being the primary factor, I should think.
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I get the impression that many European countries currently aren't as bothered pushing EV's as the only option, most German companies are still developing ultra efficient clean diesels.
I guess they have announced a ban like us??
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Fair review of the Tesla Model 3 Performance by a petrolhead.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aojg8xWWT0c
Pretty sure the next 15 years will see significant progress for EVs and not very much for ICE.
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>> Pretty sure the next 15 years will see significant progress for EVs and not very
>> much for ICE.
I know it's been said before but 15 years ago the EV market leader was the G-Wizz.
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9 years ago £30k bought you a 109bhp Nissan Leaf with 24kWh battery, 80 miles of range, 0-60 in 12 secs
Today £30k will get you into a 217bhp Nissan Leaf with 62kWh battery, 220+ miles of range, and 0-60 in 7 secs.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 14 Feb 20 at 21:18
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Just random recommended Ebay adverts appeared on my Facebook after I read this thread.
Tesla batteries from crashed cars selling for £15k a time.
Surely if your Tesla needs a new battery it will either be covered by warranty or insurance?
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People buy them for projects, Bobby.
70-100kWh of good quality Li-ion cells in modules of 5-6kWh once you open the pack up.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDu9HpPD8VY
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 14 Feb 20 at 22:29
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>> Just random recommended Ebay adverts appeared on my Facebook after I read this thread.
>> Tesla batteries from crashed cars selling for £15k a time.
>>
>> Surely if your Tesla needs a new battery it will either be covered by warranty
>> or insurance?
>>
I wonder if it would be worth sticking it in the garage and wiring it up to charge on economy 7 at say 7p per KW/h compared to about 17p per KW/h normally.
You could then use it in the day saving £10 per charge - assuming say 50kws per day it would take c3000 days to repay or 8 years!
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There are plenty of people out there now who have been using batteries (often with solar panels and/or cheap rate overnight electricity) to reduce their bills, and dependency on the grid. Traditionally the best batteries were from fork lift trucks but car batteries from write-offs are also in use.
Read up on HEMS for more info (e.g. carbontrack.com.au/blog/what-is-a-home-energy-management-system/ )
The car battery will become increasingly important. At some point in the future (the technology is already there, just pricey) when you plug your car in, at times it will charge and at other times it will supply the grid (or your own needs).
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 15 Feb 20 at 20:17
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And that was another thing I heard on the same radio show, the What Car? guy said that Tesla batteries are made by Panasonic... I thought that was Tesla's selling point in that they were going to 'rule' the world and corner the market in car battery production.
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>> The car battery will become increasingly important. At some point in the future (the technology
>> is already there, just pricey) when you plug your car in, at times it will
>> charge and at other times it will supply the grid (or your own needs).
This has the ability to be really important. If you can tell your car when you next need it, the period inbetween can be used to store energy when wind/solar is available, and release it back to the grid when it's needed.
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Even my pre-2012 designed car kind of does this. You tell it when you want it charged by, plug it in, and it does it.
There are home chargers which already do the other bit. This is it. www.virta.global/vehicle-to-grid-v2g
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Car Ownership On The Run Up To 2035 - James T
