Following on from Elon Musk doing Tesla no favours in Tweeting like he is.... Tesla must be getting more concerned when we have the Jaguar I-Pace and now the MB EQC...
I know which two I'd prefer from an i-PAce, EQC and a Model X.
www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/new-mercedes-benz-eqc-all-electric-suv-revealed
Tesla should have moved forward more aggressively and become more than a small player. Have they left it too late?
They didn't have the money or experience in car production.
For my naive take on this, the bit the like of VAG, MB, BMW, etc. do well is production. Sticking in engines or batteries or electric motors is the easy bit. Vehicle assembly with JiT delivery of components is the hard bit.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 00:48
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Tesla are now making more cars than Jaguar.
I expect there's room for all of them overall.
The USP for Tesla is its Supercharger network which trumps the current 50kW system open to the others.
At this time the other guys are still dipping their toe in the water with production numbers.
The real players are Hyundai/KIA - family cars that can do 250-300 miles for 30 grand.
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Given JRs notorious electrical and systems flakiness, combined with a shocking dealer network and appalling customer service, the last thing I’d be doing is buying an i-Pace!! But I’m surprised the others have been so slow; then again they’ve got a huge amount invested in plant making ICEs... when they do go EV it’ll be interesting to see what happens. I think Musk was pretty clear that the car was just a step on the way; battery tech, charging networks and the ip are where the long term revenue streams are, and MB, BMW, VAG and JLR are still a long way behind I think. BMW, who project themselves as being ‘connected’ still can’t consistently keep their app working!
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>> >> I think Musk was pretty clear that the car was just a step on the
>> way; battery tech, charging networks and the ip are where the long term revenue streams
>> are
IP isn't a revenue stream for Tesla. They open sourced the lot back in 2014.
www.tesla.com/en_GB/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you
My personal view is that the second "proper" car manufacturers take the EV seriously, Tesla is toast. It's a tech firm that makes cars, not a car manufacturer.
I may have mentioned on here before, but I was talking to an American owner of a Model S at a conference earlier this year who was complaining that it took 6 weeks to get a replacement quarterlight glass after a break-in, and that was only after he appealed to Musk directly over Twitter. They had a Tesla employee drive the replacement glass 100 miles personally to resolve the issue. Impressive customer service on the surface, but of course a proper car company with proper logistics infrastructure wouldn't ever need to do such things, the same as it wouldn't need the CEO to personally camp out at a factory to get a production line running properly.
The bodyshop told him they frequently had issues with parts for Teslas, whereas most of the other big manufacturers would supply glass and exterior panels the same day, if the order was placed before mid-morning.
What Tesla has done, to its massive credit, is change the image of EVs from gutless, impractical milk floats to fast, useable and for the first time, desirable technological showcases. They've also proven there is a market for them, and they've got the industry thinking differently, and taking the EV seriously, for the first time. As soon as the likes of Ford apply their resources, infrastructure and economies of scale to EV production, Tesla will never be able to compete. But Musk doesn't need the cash, and he doesn't play by conventional rules.
Last edited by: DP on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 11:57
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>> My personal view is that the second "proper" car manufacturers take the EV seriously, Tesla is
>> toast. It's a tech firm that makes cars, not a car manufacturer.
The Jaguar i-Pace is meant to be very good. Better than a Model X.
I think Tesla should have sold out to a car manufacturer a few years ago.
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iPace is much smaller than MX.
It is also currently very disappointing efficiency-wise - it manages similar range with a 90kWh battery as a 75kWh MX.
Whatcar recently compared iPace and Model S 75 - 177 miles from the Jag and 200 from the Tesla with some enthusiatic driving. I think overall they gave the nod to Model S.
It's a good car but iPace isn't the Tesla killer they hoped for.
New Merc is also significantly smaller than MX.
Competition is vital though to keep EVs moving ahead.
You should hire a Tesla for a day rtj - www.white.car - I still couldn't justify dumping 70 grand on a car tho...
Considering how much other makers are fannying around (10-20k units) I wouldn't trust any of them to buy out Tesla just now.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 12:31
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One of my customers has a Tesla, rates it as a car but not very well made or reliable, much like the idiot who tweets on their behalf.
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>>My personal view is that the second "proper" car manufacturers take the EV seriously, Tesla is toast.
I think that's right with a couple of thoughts;
If they take too long about it and let Tesla get any more entrenched, then that may change.
Tesla may get pushed out of the car business, but if their electricity storage business continues to grow fast that may not matter.
Arguably causing everybody to focus on electricity, 'clean' vehicles, 'clean' energy etc. etc. may significantly drive up the requirements for efficient and effective energy storage to address the falling supply and increased demands of rainy days and Mondays.
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>> My personal view is that the second "proper" car manufacturers take the EV seriously, Tesla is toast. It's a tech firm that makes cars, not a car manufacturer.
That's an advantage to Tesla. They are purely EV. Proper car makers have to figure out first if their EV line competes with their ICE line.
Uber is world's largest taxi firm without owning any cars.
AirBNB is world's largest rentals wthout owning any property.
It is the rule of the new world.
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Ford "invests" $5bn to make a new version of an uninspiring model.
Tesla spends $2-3bn to build the world's biggest factory to make more EV batteries than most continents.
What have they got to learn from Ford?
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>>What have they got to learn from Ford?
How to make a profit wouldn't be a bad start.
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>>How to make a profit wouldn't be a bad start.
Not a likely proposition while they rapidly increase their output in a mature marketplace.
Whether they can maintain the confidence of their investors while growing is their biggest struggle, and ultimately may be their downfall.
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>> Not a likely proposition while they rapidly increase their output in a mature marketplace.
How much does it cost say VW to build a new assembly line or upgrade one to make say the Passat.
The only 'production' line I've seen close hand in the last decade was Bentley so that's not a volume manufacturer.
I would imagine the same production line for my Passat example is capable of producing all variants including the GTE, AWD models, with just in time delivery of the right component to the right station etc.
The only reason Tesla Model 3 production has had problems is Musk wanted robots to do more of the work and long term keep the costs down. It of course didn't work so he had a second assembly line assembled in a large tent that was not so automated using robots and threw lots of people at it. Had he started out like that he'd be mass producing Model 3's without problems now.
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There were problems with making enough battery packs initially, but that bottleneck appears to have been sorted.
The Model 3 Performance variant appears to be a weapon and a half.
youtu.be/dMtE-8a9kp8?t=27m1s
Might reach our shores by 2020....
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If they didn't have battery pack problem to begin with for the model 3 they would have immediately run into the problems with car assembly. You'd have thought they'd use the delay in ramping up battery pack assembly to sort out the car assembly line.
I would not want a Model 3 - having just a portrait orientated screen in the middle of the car for everything is naff and not ergonomic. Saves Tesla money of course. They should also have an LCD screen with simulated dials, maps, infotainment in front of the driver like a proper car.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 20:00
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>>They should also have an LCD screen with simulated dials, maps, infotainment in front of the driver like a proper car.
My proper car has the maps and infotainment on a screen in the middle of the dash, along with the AC/heat controls.
EVs don't need many/any dials.
Speed and range/battery % are all you need.
I'm surprised the Model 3 doesn't have a HUD.
Or that Model S doesn't have door bins!
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 20:18
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The digital display in front of the driver, probably first seen in the Audi TT is impressive though. The Tesla should have speed and essential info in front of the driver therefore a display like the Audi one would be my preference.
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Audi's digital dash was 2016 wasn't it?
Model S has had it since launch. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnMzeJ9qhUM
Nearly 7 years later it still looks sweet.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 21:11
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So why isn't it on the Model 3?
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>>So why isn't it on the Model 3?
M3 is the cheap one.
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>> M3 is the cheap one.
A Dacia is cheap but has a speedometer.
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>> What have they got to learn from Ford?
How to make panels fit on cars,
how to provide spares,
how to set up and equip a service network (some states in the US dont have one, let along parts of the UK)
How to ramp up a production line
How to make money
Funnily enough, Tesla cant build and support cars, Ford has no viable EV technology or knowhow.
Hmmmm if you were head of Ford, what would you do.
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>>Hmmmm if you were head of Ford, what would you do.
I'd have to have a pretty good reason to buy over simply copy and learn. And I can't really see what that would be, because they won't get the rights to the technology.
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Tesla Motor co market cap is something like $48bn
Ford Motor co is under $40bn
No wonder the short sellers were ripping into Tesla.
Just checked tesla sales figures - estimate for August is 17,800 Model 3 - 2,600 Model S - 2,750 Model X.
Only 23,000 odd cars, but each is $50-150k so that's well over $1bn of sales last month.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 22:14
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>> No wonder the short sellers were ripping into Tesla.
And as you say since they are short sellers they are betting on the market cap dropping. They are being helped by the CEO Tweeting and with his short lived plan to take them private which boosted the share price. Could he get into trouble - seems to be helping stock price manipulation.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 22:28
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>> Tesla Motor co market cap is something like $48bn
Its has $10bn of debt, less than $2bn cash,
>> Just checked tesla sales figures - estimate for August is 17,800 Model 3 - 2,600
>> Model S - 2,750 Model X.
>>
>> Only 23,000 odd cars, but each is $50-150k so that's well over $1bn of sales
>> last month.
needs to SELL 100,00 cars by year end, 25% of model 3 orders have been cancelled.
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>> Only 23,000 odd cars, but each is $50-150k so that's well over $1bn of sales
>> last month.
How much profit did it make selling those 23,000 odd cars for over $1bn? If they aren't making money (which they aren't) then they have to keep going to investors for more cash.... without that they'd go in administration quickly.
Then someone will buy their charging network for a lot less than $48bn.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Wed 5 Sep 18 at 23:34
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They've got around $2bn cash in the bank, about $500m down on May.
I'd expect them to finish 2018 and still have cash on hand. More than $1bn, I should think.
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But how much profit are they making overall and per car?
Some of that cash came from investors.
I bet Ford could assemble a Model S for less than Tesla can themselves if Ford had a production line for this.
Because of VAG's 'diesel gate' the move to plugin hybrid and full electric has come sooner than anyone expected. Tesla was unlikely to have expected this in their plans.
Had VAG not cheated or been found out I think Tesla had a sound business model and planned production.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Thu 6 Sep 18 at 02:16
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For the low end/cheaper full electric car after rebate, the Model 3 at $27.5k seemed okay. But soon it will be $35k with no rebate. And KIA/Hyundai will have cheaper equivalent options.
I think VAG has impacted the Tesla plans big time.
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>> That's an advantage to Tesla. They are purely EV. Proper car makers have to figure
>> out first if their EV line competes with their ICE line.
>>
>> Uber is world's largest taxi firm without owning any cars.
>> AirBNB is world's largest rentals wthout owning any property.
Uber is not a taxi firm, AirBnB is not a rental firm and Tesla is not solely an EV Vehicle firm.
And you quite clearly have no idea of the Automotive industry in general.
>> It is the rule of the new world.
What is?
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The other thing that will hit Tesla sales soon (particularly the Model 3) is the $7.500 rebate from the US Government.
As soon as they have sold 200k vehicles this rebate stops. So the cheaper Model 3 (which is some way off because they are selling more expensive ones first) which was going to be $35k before rebate so $27,500 after the rebate will actually be $35k when they start shipping them.
This is probably why some will cancel Model 3 orders - the price went up $7.5k.
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Tesla passed 200k cars last month. - this means the tax rebate remains until the end of 2018, and I believe is halfed for Q1+Q2 2019, halfed again Q3+Q4, and ends for 2020-on.
M3 and Kona aren't direct competitors - short range M3 is like a BMW 330i, Kona is a rather stumpy crossover (nippy but FWD limits tge driving appeal)
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For what it's worth, the Tesla is bottom of the electric car section of the What Car? Reliability Index, published this month.
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>>Which one came top?
www.whatcar.com/news/reliability-survey-2018-9/
Nissan LEAF.
Drivetrain tech is generally bulletproof for EVs - with Model S a big issue with earlier cars was a connection in their fancy door handles that broke meaning the door wouldn't open - could either be fixed by a mobile tech for a few hundred quid (outside warranty) or a new unit required for £800 or so.
The weak point has been fixed on recent cars (basically a wire from a microswitch that could move each time the door handle popped in and out until the solder broke) but several hundred quid x 4 door handles could sting a bit.
A lot of customers appear to have them fixed gratis even outside warranty.
A major Achilles heel, as mentioned by Zeddo elsewhere, is parts supply which can render cars off the road for many days/even weeks (tho courtesy cars are invariably provided).
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What is striking about that whatcar survey is how far behind Tesla are.
They are more than 20% behind the next one. Usually in these surveys the spread of most reliable to least is arounf 15% ish, they are way off the back of the pack.
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Indeed - worse even than Land Rover.
Not sure what ages these cars are - I've had both a 16 plate 90D and a 17 plate 75D and build quality was noticeably better with the newer car.
Tesla also don't insist on servicing to maintain the warranty, although this probably has little effect on fault rates.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Thu 6 Sep 18 at 13:14
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More Tesla news items:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-45445554
Can't help wonder if all the pressure of running the company is beginning to take its toll.
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Smoking dope on the air is dumb. That said, there is a video of the event and he looks stoned.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycPr5-27vSI&feature=youtu.be&a=&app=desktop
Here is another interview with the guy about a month ago where he was not stoned, but had the same body language and mannerisms.
Also, there are some interesting perspectives and comments in this one.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=MevKTPN4ozw
Also, the HR person has been off work for quite a while, this is just finally deciding not to come back.
The Finance guy is strange. Difficult to believe his stated reason of not liking the focus and publicity is all that there is to it.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 7 Sep 18 at 18:05
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The Model S/X line does not look anything special. Didn't watch it all and didn''t stay to see if there was a Model 3 bit.
My brother has done the tours of the factories. I'm not sure if it's open to general public or only Tesla owners.
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At least he was not openly smoking marijuana in that video ;-)
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Some short sellers must be loving this:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45449417
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Forget how Tesla or anyone assembles cars there is little difference to how an ICE car is assembled. Just need to have a chassis that has space for battery packs, install them, install electric motors.... Seats and the usual too. Car assembly is car assembly. Tesla has not come up with anything new.
Tesla is not being smart at all. Elon Musk is currently being downright a liability that is costing investors money.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Sat 8 Sep 18 at 01:03
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Just watched a bit of that and its not a good sales pitch. Also out of date saying they make 2000 cars a week surely. Maybe for Model S/X. They also claim the plant is bigger.... well they don't have anywhere else to make bodies whereas most other car manufacturers move assemblies/parts/bodies.
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>>Tesla is not being smart at all. Elon Musk is currently being downright a liability that is costing investors money.
Sadly I agree. I think he's losing the plot. All this nonsense over the cave rescuer for example.
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From the pictures in Auto Express last week (I'm behind reading last week's magazine) it looks good. I'm not sure about cameras (optional) instead of door mirrors which can increase the range by 2 miles. Something like that.
Inside it's pretty much Audi A6/A7/A8/Q8 so looks good.
Would I like a Tesla Model X or an Audi e-tron? Definitely the Audi even if the range of some Model X's is better and they are faster.
Apparently from a 150kW DC charge point it will charge to 80% in 30 minutes. But you're not getting one of them in your home or on the street. I wonder how many volts/amps that uses.
I'm not sure about the grill though.
www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/audi-e-tron-has-finally-made-production
Last edited by: rtj70 on Mon 24 Sep 18 at 17:49
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Oops: www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45672813
Share price will have changed as a result of his actions so is he innocent?
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Shares have popped back up after the deal with SEC.
Also initial figures I've seen suggest Tesla built 80,000 cars in the last quarter, with around 57,000 Model 3.
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Elon Musk: Tesla boss mocks US regulator days after settlement
www.bbc.com/news/business-45754299
Now this *is* idiotic. No possible advantage to be achieved. His previous behaviours, whilst ridiculous, could have had some potential advantage.
This is just the stupid act of a lost man.
His obsession with short-sellers is becoming ridiculously harmful. He is doing damage far beyond anything they could achieve.
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I'm waiting for the "SEC paedos" tweet
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 5 Oct 18 at 20:15
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Looks like he's been forced to resign as chairman but retains CEO status.
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>> Looks like he's been forced to resign as chairman but retains CEO status.
>>
And pay a £20m fine. And has since taken the pee out of the SEC (Shortseller Enrichment Commission):
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45754299
What a liability he is. Also many unsold cars in storage.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 5 Sep 19 at 10:10
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Don't most (all?) car makers have huge storage compounds? There used to be a pretty big one near Richborough power station in Kent (VAG?) and there are loads of cars visible off the M5 as you go towards the Gordano services. Those are just the ones I know about.
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>> there are loads of cars visible off the M5 as you go towards the Gordano services. Those are just the
>> ones I know about.
I think those have just come off ships at Avon docks and are awaiting transport to dealers. Look like a lot of standing vehicles but so does ferry assembly area at Dover....
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>>Don't most (all?) car makers have huge storage compounds?
Yes, but it is mostly related to international shipping. Build up an entire ship load, gradually filling one's yard, then suddenly ship out the whole lot in one go and then begin again.
The same for bringing them in to a single point before sharing them out.
What is unusual is for a single car to be in there for an extended period. So an unchanging storage yard is not a good sign
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Tesla's problem seems to be that now they have built lots of cars in a month but they cannot deliver them. All down to logistics. And they make relatively few cars. Nissan at Sunderland finish assembly of a vehicle every 30 seconds.
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And Tesla produce a $50k plus car every 100 seconds.
Figures also suggest they're getting them delivered ok.
insideevs.com/tesla-production-deliveries-graphed-q3-2018/
Whether they're profitable or not before end of year is still to be shown.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 8 Oct 18 at 00:50
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Did I hear right that one of the Murdocks was in the running to take over?
Sky branded Tesla's anyone?
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James Murdoch is already on t'board and tipped as chairman when Musk resigns as he has promised.
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I'm kind of surprised that James Murdoch and Elon Musk get along. Well, I'm assuming that they do. I'm not sure about them in a Chairman/CEO partnership, though if they can work it out I guess they'd be a pretty good balance.
James is very good at what he does. Whilst he is far easier to get along with than his Father, he's still a pretty strong and focussed controller. I can't see him loving Elon Musk's behaviour.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Thu 11 Oct 18 at 13:31
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>>Did I hear right that one of the Murdocks was in the running to take over?
Indeed
James Murdoch tipped to lead Tesla board
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45815182
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"Swedish brand Volvo finished last" - presumably the old XC90?
Model 3 seems ok so far, and Model S/X are noticeably better built since 2017 (from the ones I've hired, 2016 just didn't feel that well screwed together, the 2017 was as good as my B-Class) ... but they're complicated things and many owners renew their warranties at 4 yrs or get aftermarket ones.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 5 Sep 19 at 10:27
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Tesla Problems Mounting? - Lygonos
