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Well, has "cast-iron, call me Dave" grown a pair or will it be roll over and submit again?
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 13 Dec 11 at 21:17
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You mean has he folded over to the bankers who caused all this in the first place? therefore ensuring it can and will happen again?
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Don't see Cameron had much choice.
We either join the Euro properly, or steer well clear.
The decision to join cannot be taken quickly, but the Eurozone countries are looking to bring in a solution in days or weeks.
Thus Cameron's only realistic option is to leave 'em to it.
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The government today announced that it is changing its emblem from a Union Jack to a CONDOM because it more accurately reflects the government's political stance..
A condom allows for inflation, halts production, destroys the next generation, protects a bunch of pricks, and gives you a sense of security while you're actually being screwed.
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I agree with Boris, D Cameron has played a blinder, protected Britain's interests and made it easier for the rest to sort out the Euro because agreement by all 27 EC coutries would require a new treaty whereas as it is they can just get on with it.
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He had no choice given the attitude on his back benches never mind the prospect of the UK rejecting any change in a referendum.
Not necessarily good long term politics though.
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From the Telegraph...
Terry Smith of interdealer broker Tullett Prebon, didn't mince his words. He told BBC Radio 4:
Quote [The UK is] as isolated as somebody who refused to join the Titanic just before it sailed
Sums it up really - and I live in 'enemy' territory.
For the first time in my life I've started hiding a stash of cash here.
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Worth reading:
ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/12/09/789891/quote-du-jour-eurofudge-edition/
You may have to register but if you want top info for free. it's worth while - if at times v detailed.
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>>For the first time in my life I've started hiding a stash of cash here<<
Not that I'd ever dream of pinching it, but whereabouts exactly??
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And not a moment too late, have we finally seen the light at the end of the tunnel.
Titfer doffed to the Cameron, i'm no fan but i respect his standing firm.
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The official Opposition line on this is to say the least .. confused.
They object to the veto..
So presumably think we should sign up to a set of rules on budgets and borrowing limits.
Under those same rules (The Financial Stability Pact) :
1. the budgets for the last 5 years of a Labour Government would have been rejected as they had excess borrowing. Taxes would have had to be raised or spending cut to meet the rules.
2. current Labour economic policy - as annunciated by Ed Balls and approved by Mr Miliband - would have been rejected. With the same results as 1. above.
-more popcorn-
Last edited by: madf on Fri 9 Dec 11 at 13:32
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>> The official Opposition line on this is to say the least .. confused.
>>
>> They object to the veto..
>> So presumably think we should sign up to a set of rules on budgets and
>> borrowing limits.
Cameron's veto was on basis of basis of preserving the open market particulalry in the area of banking and finance. He didn't mention budgets and I suspect those controls would only apply to the Euro zone from which we have a permanent opt out.
Some confusion amongst commentators this morning about whether he's avoided a 'Tobin Tax' or just deferred it while lessening UK influence over any final decision.
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De, de de de, de de de de de de, Britain never shall be slaves (To the fat frau and her organ grinder)
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>> frau and her organ grinder)
Ms Merkel is the organ grinder, surely? The grinning little chap jumping up and down at her side is her monkey.
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Im somewhat shocked, didnt think Cameron had the stones, but I think he was always going to get painted into the corner - this notion some people have that the UK is somehow influential anymore is just plain silly, we arent and we will never be again, get over it, they dont care one jot what we think in the UK.
I wouldnt worry to much about the French Poodle, he isnt long for political office, the UK may well have its moment of smugness further down the line.
No suprises if they openly target the UK financial service industry now, more so than before.
Can only hope Cameron is planning a few trade trips - someone last night on QT asked why we arent putting more effort into emerging markets like Africa etc. The idea that because the EU accounts for a large % of our income we cant change that % seems short sighted, they dont have the money clearly so one looks elsewhere - if my customer looses their job I dont continue to look to them for income, I go elsewhere, simple business, theres always someone, somewhere, doing OK with cash to burn.
Much as I think Robert Peston is perhaps THE most irritating man on the planet, the series he has been doing recently is food for thought, esp on attitudes in China.
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As the Eurozone's economic response to the mess they are in (think the US post 1929 ) is to follow US policies post 1929 Cut spending but no monetary stimulus allowed...the outcome is very likely to be another Great Depression - in Europe this time.
Last time in the 1929-32 crash, Germany was badly hit - due to a large variety of reasons.. and the UK largely unscathed . (all by comparison to the US. The reality was still grim for many)..
US GDP fell 30% in three years.. in that time.. And most US banks went bust..
Obviously no-one wants the same but policy makers seem determined to try a rerun..
Since I can do nothing, I'll hunker down and watch...Slow motion crash in real time. So far every decision post 2009 by the Eurozone has been 18o degrees wrong. The ECB raised interest rates mid 2011.. for example. Crazy. Then cut them 4 months later.
If it was a Brian Rix farce, it would have been howled off the stage with derision.."No-one could be that stupid". They are not: they are worse than that.
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>> >> frau and her organ grinder)
>>
>> Ms Merkel is the organ grinder, surely? The grinning little chap jumping up and down
>> at her side is her monkey.
>>
>> haha, reminds me of the inspector clousseau sketch , whilst the inspector is asking the organ grinder if he had a licence for the monkey, the bank in the background is being robbed...
comedy becomes reality
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>> >>For the first time in my life I've started hiding a stash of cash here<<
But in what currency - gold bars are all very well but you cannot eat them, and scraping a few flakes off to pay for veggies at a local street market is a little difficult in practice:)
>>
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Gold sovereigns or Krugerrands?
We have a few sovereigns... And some jools...
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What would happen if the euro picks up in value how would that effect the pound?
I had a look at some of the continental papers and comments.Some agree with Cameron some don't.There are mixed feelings about the EU.This is a long story to run yet.
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Only in euros. I'm not worried - at this stage - about worldwide collapse and have assets elsewhere, but I'm a bit concerned about French bank machines suddenly not working.
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>> You mean has he folded over to the bankers who caused all this in the
>> first place? therefore ensuring it can and will happen again?
You might be referring to fiscal powers in general, or the possibility of a transaction tax?
A Tobin tax won't hurt the banks except to the extent that their business migrates to markets where there isn't one, which will do none of us any good. The tax on dealings within our pension funds will just be added to the total expenses and increase our pension costs accordingly. I think somebody has already pointed out that the reason Merkozy is so keen on it is that 35% of transactions by value are in Britain, so it would cost us more than any other EU country.
The fact that we won't sign a blank contract for EU fiscal rules (supposedly) doesn't stop us having our own.
As usual the reporting has caricatured this anyway. There has been no signing this week and nor was there to be. There was only some sort of accord in principle about a new treaty - Cameron could have gone along with it and demurred later, so had no need to make a stand - his bluff was called and he had to show he was serious or be forever seen as weak. For the same reason Merkozy couldn't give in. Conversely, some of the 25 or 26 who have "agreed" will just argue the toss or renege later - it's by no means a done deal. Lots of grandstanding all round.
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I've always quite liked the idea of being part of Europe, and having a single currency. FWIW I think opting out is a mistake. My feeling is that our economy is as fragile as the next, and we may live to regret not jumping in the lifeboat when we had the opportunity.
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 9 Dec 11 at 23:22
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>> I've always quite liked the idea of being part of Europe, and having a single
>> currency.
Would you be prepared to accept fiscal union? Without it, monetary union can't work (as has been demonstrated). This is not being wise after the event - I don't believe the architects thought you could have one without the other either.
I remember houses that you couldn't have given away in Dublin being worth €300k a few years later. Ireland was overheating then for wnat of higher interest rates which they couldn't implement. Spain and Italy have been uncompetitive for years, and had they had their own currencies they would have devalued by 20%-30% over time against Germany and not had the debt and deficit problems they do now.
Germans are grumbling about bailing them out, saying they have paid their debt for their 20th century history. They overlook the subsidy Germany has received from the Euro - had they still had the DM Volkswagen, the strength of their currency would have hurt their competitiveness immensely, and Volkswagen would more likely be a basket case than the most profitable car manufacturer in the world. They do owe the rest of the Eurozone a bailout, we don't.
I must speak to my cousin in Berlin about this - we haven't talked for a while. It will be interesting to get the German vox pop from her.
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I think there was one simple change to the Euro zone that could have had a big effect to save it. But it is now too late. Germany had to leave the Euro. Now they need Germany to borrow money to bail them out. When Germany's credit rating is reduced it might be game over.
If the Euro zone countries had allowed the currency to devalue then maybe the southern countries would be okay. Germany (and possibly France) would have been against this.
When we went to Kefalonia in 2007 I think the £ got you about €1.40! And since then I had thought the pound and dollar had weakened (I suppose they had). But the Euro had probably strengthened. Within the Euro zone that didn't matter.
I think there are major changes needed to keep the Euro. And at what cost to the Eurozone countries?
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Maybe the best to have a referendum and have all the arguments for and against once and for all.
I only hope that the ordinary people and I'm one of them not end up paying the price for the folly of the bankers.
I heard a yank say ones s h i t runs down.
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we may live to regret not jumping in
>> the lifeboat when we had the opportunity.
>>
Which concedes the point, of course, that the good ship "Euro" is somewhat down by the bows; and it was a darn good move not to tie HMS Sterling alongside it.
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The other nautical analogy I read yesterday was something like we will regret not joining the Euro ship as much as the passenger who missed boarding the Titanic.
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>>
>> The other nautical analogy I read yesterday was something like we will regret not joining
>> the Euro ship as much as the passenger who missed boarding the Titanic.
>>
>>
>>
I confess that this was the one which moved me to mine. An excellent analogy.
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Of course we might end up like the crew of the Marie Celeste, abandoning what turned out to be a perfectly safe haven to be lost forever.
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"There was only some sort of accord in principle about a new treaty - Cameron could have gone along with it and demurred later, so had no need to make a stand"
Obviously you don't read the papers or watch the news.
He would have faced at instant revolt by at least 100 of his MPs. And resignations by ministers. It would likely have brought the Government down.
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>> Obviously you don't read the papers or watch the news.
>>
>> He would have faced at instant revolt by at least 100 of his MPs. And
>> resignations by ministers. It would likely have brought the Government down.
Of course I read the news. My point was that he wouldn't actually have been signing up to anything. His MPs are already revolting ;-)
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"Of course I read the news. My point was that he wouldn't actually have been signing up to anything"
Most of his right wing MPs are not intelligent enough to realise the difference..
You don't get to be a right wing "hangee, floggem" MP by being normal. :-)
Last edited by: madf on Sat 10 Dec 11 at 13:07
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There's a lot of just being on message, or if you prefer hypocrisy, or to be blunt, lying amongst politicians of all colours and nationalities.
None of them can really have believed that the Euro could last indefinitely without fiscal union; none can really believe now that fiscal union, if it can be achieved, can endure without political union - a United States of Europe. But have any of the "Europeans" actually said so? Not very loudly, yet they must all know it.
It's not scaremongering to say that if the Euro survives, the choice may well come down to
- being part of a European nation, where Britain will lose self determination in foreign policy, and economic and fiscal policy - and where taxation from richer states will subsidise poorer ones, much as England subsidises Wales and Scotland or London subsidises the North East; or
- being out of the EU entirely; or
- trying to engineer continued membership of a European free trade area without the rest of it.
The third way is probably the best, but the European gang will prefer to deny Britain that option to have us in (under Franco German control) or out (so they can disadvantage our financial services activity to their benefit).
The rest is flannel.
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I am still surprised that those countries in the Euro didn't see this mess coming. The borrowings of counties like Greece and Italy would have been well known.
Currently there is no way of forcing a country to do anything with taxes etc. Greece is in a position where they are being forced because they need the bailout. But what was needed was powers to stop them getting into that position. Therefore fiscal union (and more) is the only answer.
And whilst the UK and USA used QE to help us through the recessions, a Eurozone country cannot do this alone. And I don't believe the ECB is allowed to - and Germany wouldn't ket them do it anyway.
I think worse is to come... it is surely too late for fiscal union for Euro countries to make a difference now. The time for that was in the distant past.
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The problem with most of our politics is that it's short term, and no one wants to be the one left holding the baby when the proverbial hits the fan, so spiralling crises are fudged and worked temporarily around so hopefully the next caretaker takes the blame and on it goes.
Titanic parody is excellent, possibly the most apt for this deepening situation that will have consequences for years to come.
What we are seeing is the result of countries behaving like feckless people running up unimaginable debts on their credit cards and loans with no hope of ever paying it back, simultaneously working part time and therefore earning less in order to have time to enjoy the credit bought tat.
Hoping some fairy godmother waves the magic wand to make it alright again, here comes Mother Christmas in the form of Chancellor Merkel, now is she the sainted Mother Christmas who'd going to guide the naughty children to the path of righteousness, or the Wicked Witch of the West who has other designs on those children?
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The only country in the Eurozone with even a chance of bailing out the others is Germany. But if I were a German, I would not want my taxes going to the other countries that over spent!
To say we will be on the sidelines and trying to make it sound bad is not correct IMO. We might be looking on as that Eurozone Titanic sinks. Or should we all be on that sinking ship.
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If the eurozone titanic sinks, there will be waves that will swamp us. If they go TU we still go TU.
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We have the perfect storm
The bust part of the boom bust cycle just for starters. We could cope with that.
Except it comes after banking crisis, which means limited scope to increase public debt as the private sector de-leverages and the tax take falls.
Public sector debt already at a level where increasing it faster to restore growth as recommended by Balls is unlikely to work (Google Reinhart & Rogoff).
Add to that disastrous mixture the Eurozone crisis.
There's not much we can do apart from the austerity measures. Public debt will still increase for 3 years at best, probably longer. We can't do much to fix the Eurozone so we are better to leave them to it. Any idea that a "seat at the table" will give us influence is naive, Merkozy united cannot be defeated, only vetoed.
China won't bail us out either. All the countries that should be buying their stuff are in trouble. The Chinese have just laid off 10 million, and charity will begin at home.
There will be cuts and tax rises, across the board. Before we have finished, the striking public servants will be happy to take real-terms pay cuts to keep their jobs. Only the people who run the system (the big capitalists) will get richer.
It will be a lot harder than it should be in proportion to the welfare-dependency culture we have created. There will be a wailing and gnashing of teeth, demos and probably riots.
I tend to agree with GB that short-termism is the root cause, if you have to name one.
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I also agree that it is short term policies that are to blame. But how can you have longer term ones when a term of government is about 4 years.
And yes Zero, we will at risk of going TU too. But more can we do.
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The myth is that it can be fixed.
Once everyone stops expecting someone on horseback to come riding in with buckets of cash and instead accept that political ideology ( without common sense ) is going to cost the people of Europe years of diminishing standards of living, we may start to atleast approach reasonable solutions, none of which are nice for anyone.
If they dont have a reality check soon, circumstances will force one which will likely be far harsher for everyone than a difficult, but organised process.
I fear the leaders of the Eurozone simply dont have the capability to genuinely sort the problems out though and its just a matter of time before something gives in a big way.
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Do we really consider that we in any better shape than Europe, and that we too will not have to go through years of austerity? I don't see too many signs that convince me that won't be the case. I think a reality check is required here too, but our "national pride" (or xenophobia) seems to be leading everyone to the assumption that we are OK while Europe isn't.
When it comes to it, I don't see the UK population just rolling over and accepting hard times, so why would we expect anyone else to? The public sector have already given us a taste of that.
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I think a better title for the post would have been
Britain insulated from shocks in the Euro! (partially at least!)
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Some good points smokie why do we have this xenophobia about europe?The UK should be having a fullsay what is going in the rest of europe.I understand some of the silly rules what came out of europe and people don't like it.What would happen if the UK left the EU and went his own way.Anybody on this forum can put all the fore and against.? I haven't got the patients.
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The public sector have already given us a taste of that.
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and are still living in cloud cuckoo land in some not all cases, once they realise the truth they will come around, my mate has climbed the ladder quite well where he is now and sometimes rings me to vent his spleen at the attitude of many and the sheer waste of money he witnesses.
I think you underestimate the general public Smokie, they might have been suffering unrealistic utopian visions of paradise for a long time as the usual suspects basked in the fruits of money spent willy nilly but borrowed in our names by a succesion of snake oil salesmen each promising ever more of the never ending good life.
I don't think many in the private sector and an increasing number in the public sector are totally brainwashed any more, the blinkers are off and reality has hit those who were told lies for years and believed it.
You only have to speak to ordinary people to see the dramatic shift in attitudes, the rioters didn't get the support or sympathy that they might once have, most people wanted them to get a damned good thrashing from the old bill, that's a sea change and just the start IMO.
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>> Do we really consider that we in any better shape than Europe,
Not much, no.
>>and that we too will not have to go through years of austerity?
No - see my last post. We will be poorer. About the only good bits will be (if you have a mortgage) low interest rates and (if you have savings or a fixed income) low inflation when the energy and food inflation works through.
>> When it comes to it, I don't see the UK population just rolling over and
>> accepting hard times, so why would we expect anyone else to? The public sector have
>> already given us a taste of that.
You are right. The "welfare" economies like ours will find it very difficult politically to make the necessary cuts. But there really is no alternative - the PSBR will continue to rise for years, and increasing borrowing even more to try and create growth would be very high risk when we are already at 80%-90% of GDP.
No, we are not much better off than the Eurozone. But we wouldn't have the low borrowing costs we have if we were in the Eurozone. That is a function of the risk of lending to GB, which is ameliorated by the fact that having our own currency means we can always print a bit more, and of having an average gilts duration of 14 years, rather than the short term rollover needs of say Italy.
Do we want to be part of the the United States of Europe, or paddle our own canoe?
I think the biggest threat to us is us.
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Put me right Manatee,our inflation must be well over 5%.If the bank prints more money we will create more inflation. Our gas and electric bills have shot up and so have these companies profits.But shouldn't our interest be at least 2% or near.What worries me is that will some continental firms still invest in the UK in a hostile envirioment.And Cameron walked away to protect the banking sector in London.Our younger generation need the change to work maybe you are right we are our own enemy.
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>>Put me right Manatee,our inflation must be well over 5%.If the bank prints more money we will create more inflation.
True and true Dutchie. But there will be pressure on prices as real incomes fall, and the 5% figure has been very much driven by energy and food inflation which are not expected to be repeated next year. The Bank of England CPI forecast for this quarter is 4.71%, falling to 1.72% by Q4 2012, and low of 1.21% by Q2 2013.
Not that I am relying on it. I put the most I could into the last index linked NSI issue!
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>> Do we want to be part of the the United States of Europe, or paddle
>> our own canoe?
A canoe is easier to turn around than an oversized supertanker......
Whilst the idea of a united Europe has always been a nice idea, the fact of the matter (IMHO) is that the individual countries are too different to each other for it to ever work.
I mean that in many ways, including financially, cultures, history, and politically (both with, and without a capital P.
The buying power of being in a group can be favourable, but sometimes the ability of being able to negotiate the deal, best suited to ones own circumstances is better....
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It's easy to criticise our politicians for short-termism.
But effective long-term planning requires knowledge of future conditions which is just not possible to acquire in this situation.
Our relatively modest budget cuts appear to have been well-received by the international financial community.
We are navigating our way through choppy economic waters quite well - for the time being at least.
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>>but our "national pride" (or xenophobia) seems to be leading everyone to the assumption that we are OK while Europe isn't.<<
Firstly, it is not xenophobic to look at whats done in other countries and think 'not for us thanks', its personal preference and using derogatory terms like that is a technique long used to silence anyone who questions what goes on in any other country.
The only xenophobia I see here is towards the Chinese but currently they arent in the EU so those who trot out that word whenever the EU is mentioned in anything other than glowing terms dont pull anyone up on it 'cos dem Chinese is really foreign like'.
Secondly, its pride in themselves that is strangling the EU17 issues because none of them want to admit it aint working and take actions to actually be effective. France are worried about their AAA rating and Merkel cant bear the ghosts of Germanys past.
>>When it comes to it, I don't see the UK population just rolling over and accepting hard times, so why would we expect anyone else to?<<
Its not about expectation, its about whats going to happen, like it or not. I dont LIKE having to cut my expenditure, I dont like business being slow, but I also recognise that its not just me, its a large proportion of this country and indeed Europe aswell, so I make sacrifices, cut costs and weather the storm.
Hard times arent optional, they happen and our economy and attitudes to money need some readjustment, so maybe in the long run it will be a good wake up call for us. Its not like people in this country have never had to work through hard times, its just certain sections of society have convinced themselves hard times should never happen, but they do and they will regardless of what people want.
As a side note, the investment by the government is already filtering down to me as my business customers are taking on staff to cover government work, so its not all bad by any means, my income is climbing rather than falling.
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I think we are in for tough times in the UK. Almost inevitable. And we're better off not being to involved in sorting the Eurozone mess out. I do wonder about the other countries in the EU but not in the Eurozone.
Unless there are drastic changes in the Eurozone I don't think the Euro is long for this world. It is too late to do some of the things that were needed. Maybe the easiest way forward would be to throw out Germany and devalue the Euro.
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The Libs are whining and restless about the use of the veto, The milliband gang are whining about the david being weak.
If he really had a pair he would call a snap election. Right Now. I bet the libs would be decimated, the millibands would be caught with their pants down, and daring david would romp home.
This is his maggie Falklands moment, but I am not sure he realises it.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 11 Dec 11 at 09:45
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>> he would call a snap election.
It'll be a long time before such an opportunity arises in the future, that's for sure.
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My feeling is it is all going to crash anyway. There is no solution, or if there is, no one in Europe knows what it is, or has the determination and clear sightedness , or the power, to push it through.
So bring it on, and then we can at least retrieve the UK from the wreckage and start again.
The best nautical analogy at present, pace Titanic, is "rats joining the sinking the sinking ship".
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Best description on answers that I've seen is in form of a Venn diagram. Circle A is stuff that works, Circle B is stuff that's politically acceptable.
No overlap.
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Well, my personal economic circumstances have a hell of a long way to fall before I go back to what was considered a relatively comfortable working class lifestyle when i was growing up, and I am by no means prosperous now.
We worry too much, you've just got to roll with it occassionaly.
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Totally agree Robin. My grand parents coped withe the First world War, My parents with the Depression and the Second World War. We aren't going to die from a few years of recession and slightly less spending power. As you say got a long way to go before I reach the economic level of my parents in the fifties and we were OK then.
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I know at least one person on here is going to stockpile food, barricade his drive with old mercedes's and shoot anyone who tries to climb over....
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Been watching Living with the Amish on Channel 4 over the last few weeks and it does put our materialistic lives in perspective, its certainly made me wonder quite how we went from that sort of existance to poverty being not having a flat screen TV and an Xbox ( I still have a PS2 so I better get my begging bowl out ).
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I still have an original X-Box.
Good condition, a few games and accessories, including a steering wheel and spare controllers.
Offers on a forum post, please....
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I've got the remote control, too, so it will play DVDs.
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right up to the point it scrapes off the surface of the DVD.
Good old XBox.
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No need, ive just filled the PS2 up with coal, hoping to get it lit soon.
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...right up to the point it scrapes off the surface of the DVD...
I played a DVD on it once, got away with it.
This ebay item isn't mine, but it could be:
www.ebay.co.uk/itm/XBOX-ORIGINAL-Console-Large-bundle-/170741739168?pt=UK_VideoGames_VideoGameConsoles_VideoGameConsoles&hash=item27c1002ea0
Mmm, 26 quid, reserve not met.
Looks like I will have to go back to work after all.
Last edited by: Iffy on Sun 11 Dec 11 at 11:52
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I sold an old Atari a few year ago, went for a small fortune, some weird folk out there.
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>> If he really had a pair he would call a snap election. Right Now. I
>> bet the libs would be decimated, the millibands would be caught with their pants down,
>> and daring david would romp home.
>> This is his maggie Falklands moment, but I am not sure he realises it.
Is a snap election as easy now? IIRC part of the recent elections and constituency boundary legislation created an assumption in favour of fixed term parliaments.
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Not sure about Cameron walking a snap election, so far he's done one thing of use as far as i can see and the jury's out on that, he needs to grow a lot bigger set and better be pretty quick about it too, both to deal with home issues, and the EU and beyond.
Libs conned and cuckolded voters won't vote Tory.
Labour is probably in its worse ever state, even its most loyal supporters are silent, which is probably for the best as Labour has become little short of a national joke.
Old school Tories were and still are disgusted over the EU referendum lie and other still unmentionable issues affecting our still unsupportably growing population, and i'm not sure the much hyped Veto has done enough to gain forgiveness for the party, many votes will go UKIP etc which may not result in UKIP MP's but would scupper marginal Tory seats, yes there will be tactical voting but many will vote with their true beliefs, there's millions have had the wool pulled from their eyes now and can see and don't like what they see in their own country.
I have a feeling the result won't be far different than the last time, and the fewer libs could easily decide to side with labour to recoup some credibility in their core voters eyes...if that happened we might as well all pack up work and go on the dole.
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>>
>> Is a snap election as easy now? IIRC part of the recent elections and constituency
>> boundary legislation created an assumption in favour of fixed term parliaments.
>>
That's a good point. I've wondered how advocates of fixed term parliaments would get round the problem of a government that fell - perhaps lost a no confidence motion, or a coalition collapsed and no one could agree on forming another one.
There has to be a mechanism for calling a snap election, otherwise there might be no government at all for 4 years. Would politicians just sit around twiddling their thumbs waiting for the time to be up?
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That's my boy! I'll have 10 bob e/w on him come the next election,
Read the comments that come with that youtube, says it all really.
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>> That's my boy! I'll have 10 bob e/w on him come the next election,
>>
I think you'll lose that 10 bob D though he's got our vote, things haven't got bad enough yet, but they will and then those who thought the Titanic unsinkable will expect someone who wears their pants on the outside to come swooping in with an instant fix.
Thanks for posting that Roger, i do enjoy Farage's withering assaults on the unelected unaccountable apparatchiks.
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I wouldn't expect Nige to take up residence at No.10, unless he was let in by the Cons who let in Corporal Clegg,
That's why my 10 bob bet would be an e/w punt.
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Fixed-term Parliaments Bill 2010-11
Following agreement by both Houses on the text of the Bill it received Royal Assent on 15 September. The Bill is now an Act of Parliament (law)
The Bill fixes the date of the next General Election at 7 May 2015, and provides for five-year fixed terms. It includes provisions to allow the Prime Minister to alter the date by up to two months by Order. There are also two ways in which an election could be triggered before the end of the five-year term:
if a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is found
or
if a motion for an early general election is agreed either by at least two-thirds of the House or without division
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>> That's a good point. I've wondered how advocates of fixed term parliaments would get round
>> the problem of a government that fell - perhaps lost a no confidence motion, or
>> a coalition collapsed and no one could agree on forming another one.
Report in yesterday's Grauniad suggested Labour support would be needed for a snap election now.
I've not looked up the detail of the legisaltion but I clearly it would require a larger majority than could be raised by the current coalition alone.
[EDIT] CGN's post answers the question.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 13 Dec 11 at 13:21
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Yeah but what party in opposition is NOT going to march through the division lobby in support.
Can you imagine the flack? "We wanted to call an election but you lot are too scared to agree"
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That's clever.
At present if an opposition fears it might lose in a snap election it can simply dismiss the idea as a time-wasting exercise when the government should be getting on with governing.
Now its bluff would be called, and it would be virtually forced to support a motion for an early election for fear of looking foolish and cowardly.
Like forcing a turkey to vote for Christmas.
What genius thought this would improve democracy?
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The Lib Dems as part of the price of coalition
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How many people in the UK would be happy leaving the EU altogether? At the moment we are listening to a populist voice Niger Farrage included .How about the silent majority who could be losing jobs interest rates rising inflation high.Has Cameron done us a favour or dropped us in the whatever to appease the banking cartel in London.
I don't think the Continent is isolated Roger the UK is!.26 against one is a majority vote for them.
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>>How many people in the UK would be happy leaving the EU altogether?<<
Have a referendum and find out, it would settle the issue although smart people in government wont because they have access to more stats than us mere mortals on what the voters would go for and they think we would vote to leave.
>>Has Cameron done us a favour or dropped us in the whatever to appease the banking cartel in London.<<
Given the income from the City to this country, it would be pretty stupid to do anything to disadvantage it. Whether banking practices are right or wrong is a separate issue from protecting the income it generates for this country, you need to get real and stop being so simplistic.
The ideals of the EU were noble, but in practice it is harder to make larger groups of people happy than smaller ones. It has become self-obessed and seems to serve itself rather than the little people.
Look at those Greek people and ask yourself why Germany and France are hanging them out to dry? Why havent they sorted out the Euro crisis long ago? Answer. They only care about themselves. Just happens that in this country we arent so blinkered. Germany is blocking the solutions and it seems more and more possible they are hoping the weaker countries 'go under' so they dont have to reach into their pocket.
Sorry but the EU and everything that happens within it is about cold hard consequences and national politics. This big community thing is only trotted out when everyone agrees anyway.
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If the weaker countries 'go under' France for certain and Germany very probably will have massive problems too because of the exposure of their banks. If the Euro fails a resurgent DM will rise to levels that make Mercs and VW's unnaffordable here never mind in Greece.
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>> That's clever.
>> At present if an opposition fears it might lose in a snap election it can
>> simply dismiss the idea as a time-wasting exercise when the government should be getting on
>> with governing.
>> Now its bluff would be called, and it would be virtually forced to support a
>> motion for an early election for fear of looking foolish and cowardly.
Except of course that the only reason the opposition would be calling for a snap election would be if the current government's so unpopular they're a dead cert to lose. They might look chicken for opposing in the short term, but hanging on in the hope of the polls picking up before their five years is up is still their best option.
What it prevents is the government in power picking the moment most favourable to them to call an election. A good thing.
You have to remember that if Sweaty Gordon hadn't been such a egomaniac and fixated on getting a majority larger than the grinning monkey's, he'd have called a snap election when he took power........and probably have won it.
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>>
>> What it prevents is the government in power picking the moment most favourable to them
>> to call an election.
>>
Apparently not:
"or
if a motion for an early general election is agreed either by at least two-thirds of the House or without division".
The government could call for an early election, and the opposition would be forced either to support it or abstain. They would look pretty silly opposing the government but also refusing to fight an election.
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>>How many people in the UK would be happy leaving the EU altogether?<<
Next question "how many people have a full understanding of the implications of leaving ?" Nobody understood the Maastrict treaty did they ? I certainly didn't. Mind you that Brown fellow promised us a referendum on that as well didn't he.
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That's why we and all modern states have a representative democracy and not a true democracy. We vote for representatives who hopefully do have a greater understanding than we do and make decisions on an informed basis rather than our own necessarily limited understanding of major issues
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Who understood the voting referendum we had...? Not me !
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>> If the Euro fails a resurgent DM will rise to levels that make Mercs and VW's unnaffordable
>> here never mind in Greece.
If Germany left the Euro (even if it still exists) then yes their currency would be strong. But not so strong that they couldn't sell their products around the world. They'd soon go into decline if they were pricing themselves out of the market.
I can see why so many of the other countries didn't have so many objections to the treaty compared to the UK. They don't have a strong financial sector and wouldn't be impacted the same. France and Germany probably would like us included so we can contribute taxes etc to the Eurozone.
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Watched Cameron's statement to the house yesterday, Milliband's reply and all 101 questions from back benchers plus of course Cameron's replies.
I am a staunch supporter of the BBC though their coverage last night was not an accurate reflection of what was said or the general sentiments in the house.
They even repeated Milliband's assertion that Cameron's veto did not veto anything because the others are moving ahead anyway - which is totally wrong because the veto vetoed a new treaty therefore the others are having to work on an intergovernmental basis, Paxman also made the same error on news night.
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Regards the veto you are of course technically correct but the point Milliband was making that there was no effective veto. The remainder were quite able to continue with their broad aim with or without the UK's approval which they did. Fair comment I believe.
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I disagree CG, the French and German proposal was for an EC treaty which would be binding on all members, Cameron vetoed this.
The intergovernmental approach cannot supercede/cut across/over rule existing EC treaties and therefore the veto was effective, albeit either positive or negative perhaps depending on your point of view.
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"Europe will return to growth and prosperity much more quickly if the single currency is broken up, former chancellor Lord Lawson says today".
www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-24020890-cameron-was-right-and-single-currency-must-be-broken-up-says-lord-lawson.do
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Norway and Switzerland do well enough outside the EU.
There may well be pain in leaving it...but there's pain in remaining. Also there is gross wastage, tremendous bureaucracy and in some cases 'hands in tills.'
Then bung in some countries wholly different ideas on running an economy, judiciary, etc......why is it 'off the wall' to consider leaving?
This business about having the City of London more regulated, will cost us dearly in one of our last remaining areas for making a decent income
The countries of the future for trade are India and China.... I spoke with someone last friday who has recently visited the Jaguar factory. Their production lines are at full capacity for the XF and XJ...and guess where they're all going?...India and China.
I see no reason why long term we don't think out of the box.
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Norway do okay outside of the EU because of their current oil revenue. Switzerland are probably benefiting from the financial sector amongst other things.
As you say the countries that are important in the future are China, India, Brazil, etc. Far bigger markets.
I'm not too bothered about this treaty and being in my opinion are getting hung up on it:
- If we were wrong, why couldn't we opt in later anyway
- This treaty has nothing to do with fixing the now - it is to stop it happening again. That's my take on it anyway
More worrying if for the Eurozone to figure out a long term solution... I don't think they know what that is yet. I suggest Germany leaves the Euro as a starting point.
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>> The countries of the future for trade are India and China.... I spoke with someone
>> last friday who has recently visited the Jaguar factory. Their production lines are at full
>> capacity for the XF and XJ...and guess where they're all going?...India and China.
They'l be cancelling this months orders in Jaguar Motors Mumbai.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16153793
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>> rather than our own necessarily limited understanding of
>> major issues
>>
That is probably true generally, but about once every 25 years public opinion gets it right by sheer bloody -minded instinct, and politicians do well to realise when one of those moments has come. 1939 was one, this may well be another.
Ooo, I've never activated the swear filter before. But then I've never felt inclined to try a cocktail made from vodka and tomato juice.
don't bother with the cocktail but I've fixed the b word !!
Last edited by: R.P. on Tue 13 Dec 11 at 19:01
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I very much doubt that had there been a referendum in 1939 there would have been a yes vote for war with Germany. Churchill was leading public opinion, not following it.
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But Churchill was wrong on a number of fronts (!) - many view the fact that we happened to be on the winning side despite him not because of him. Populist he was - but sometimes unpopular decisions have to be made....he was an eccentric, his premiership was hallmarked by drug and alcohol abuse.
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That may or may not be true but the point I was making is that we elect our leaders to make decisions for us and those decisions need not necessarily match current popular opinion.
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Today's news: Continent isolated! - Zero
