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Ongoing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 16 Mar 22 at 10:28
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F-Wit Ferguson tells Radio 4 that his doomsday predictions were poor communication and oversimplifying the data but he was basically right.
www.thesun.co.uk/news/17158554/professor-lockdown-neil-ferguson-admits-oversimplified-things/
Absolutely nothing to do with being an attention-seeker willing to trash public trust in real scientists for his 10 minutes of fame then. That's a relief.
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Interesting 19 part tweet from Chris Hopson, CEO of NHS Providers (who they? :-) ) which gives a nicely balanced view of where we are IMO.
twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1475540046677790723?s=21
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>> Interesting 19 part tweet from Chris Hopson, CEO of NHS Providers (who they? :-) )
>> which gives a nicely balanced view of where we are IMO.
The problem this time is not the full up hospital beds, rather the loss of staff who test positive and have to isolate. Thats what will cripple the NHS
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A short video highlighting the red flag signs for Omicron
twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1471116451973115909
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This is American, by the NIH, but would apply here too.
You can check each of the listed Covid drugs against things you may already take to see if there are any contraindications.
I feel from reading the leaflets inside drugs I get that they appear to tend towards extreme caution but it may be of interest to some.
www.covid19-druginteractions.org/view_all_interactions
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Is there still aproblem? SWMBO ordered a pack (either yesterday or Wednesday) and the postie just delivered it.
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Dunno how she managed that, the website has been saying unavailable for three days, currently says
Sorry, there are no home delivery slots left for rapid lateral flow tests right now
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There seem to have been "small windows of opportunity" as neighbours also ordered some but I try every so often (when I remember) and not got any yet. Still got an unopened pack but we are testing fairly frequently at the mo, have just done one today as we have people coming round tonight so will do another in three days or so.
OTOH we aren't planning to be out and about that much during Jan. I have home deliveries set up well into the month and by the end of tonight I'll have seen enough friends and family over the past couple of weeks to last me a month or so :-)
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Just ordered a pack five minutes ago. No problem.
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Cool, just ordered a pack.
Wasn't available when I wrote my post!
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They on ebay yet being resold?
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14:52. Sorry, there are no home delivery slots left for rapid lateral flow tests right now
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Just like toilet rolls 20 months ago, and fuel more recently. There is no probably no real shortage but the media will happily make a big story about a minor outage or small delivery failure.
A non-issue suddenly becomes a problem. We all panic, leap in our cars and search for bog rolls, petrol, and LFTs. The apparent supply problem becomes real. We all now have cars full of fuel (denuding the forecourts), medicine cabinets full of LFTs (rather than the chemist) and rear end sanitary wipes stacked just in case in the garage.
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In this case there really is an issue. We are mid pandemic with massive numbers of people getting sick daily (yes, I know it's mild and harmless, despite it hospitalising quite a few) and many of us trying to follow government advice re testing, but no tests have been available.
The government has already queered its pitch with the two main UK test producers by refusing to pay bills (Omega Diagnostics and NovaCYT - I think on unreasonable grounds, in both cases) and it seems didn't stockpile sufficient Chinese tests in case there might be a rush on them at some point in the future, when a new variant emerged - which was at least as predictable as panic buying.
I think I read that we are being bailed out by a loan from Wales. I imagine that's a bit embarrassing for HMG really.
The bog tolls - at an early point I went out and got more than I needed. I was abroad when it started but they were short in the shops, probably as a result of panic buying, but whatever the reason, I wasn't keen on not having any. Not many people like to own up to it but I think many did the same.
Petrol is less of a problem for me :-)
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Tragedy of the commons of course. If there's rumour of a bog roll/petrol shortage, the rational thing to do is stock up, unless all can agree that they will only shop when they need some.
If everybody else is snapping up what there is, your worst option is to be the mug who stands aside and runs out.
This is also why instead of solving climate change, it's possible the human race will effectively make its own home planet uninhabitable and die out.
Nice little programme on the wireless yesterday contemplating this. Doesn't Bill Gates have a high voice?
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0012s9z (Think with Pinker)
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Just ordered test kits from NHS website. Must have got lucky.
Last edited by: James Loveless on Fri 31 Dec 21 at 17:24
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>> Just ordered test kits from NHS website. Must have got lucky.
Just tried and BINGO, a kit is on its way. At last its taken all week
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If anyone is desperate I've got a box (unopened) from last year that you can have.
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That should be earlier this year ie 2021.
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"Just tried and BINGO, a kit is on its way."
You can thank me later.
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>> "Just tried and BINGO, a kit is on its way."
>>
>> You can thank me later.
While I am choking on the swab?
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"While I am choking on the swab?"
What are you? - A wimp?
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>> What are you? - A wimp?
Hey you, I had that swab shoved down my throat 26 times last year, my tonsils look like Sir Lancelot at the end of jousting season.
Wimp indeed.
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All the LFT test kits I’ve had in last six months or so have been nose swabs only. Though there seems to be some folk claiming you should still include throat as these are more accurate.
The monthly PCR tests we get as part of the ONS study are throat and nose.
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>> The monthly PCR tests we get as part of the ONS study are throat and
>> nose.
Depends on the kit. The early home LF ones were throat (tonsils) and nose, the later ones appear to be nose only.
PCR's are always throat and nose, they are the beggars I have had to have twice a month. And its always been some redeployed bouncer door supervisor with the dexterity skills of a fence post.
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Tried, sometimes twice a day, since returning from Spain mid December.
And twice today. No chance of a home delivery
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4 million test kits were sent by the Wales Government to England. We have a small stock. Not for socialising reasons but to support older parents and care home visits. I called in the small pharmacy that my GP's practice maintains couple of weeks ago. I asked for a kit and was offered two. Another box en-route from the government website.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 4 Jan 22 at 13:14
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The local pharmacy at Morrisons had a delivery earlier and kept some back for us as we need to test before we visit mother in law to help her out.
Last edited by: zippy on Sat 1 Jan 22 at 14:10
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Ex-senior police officer on the radio yesterday talking in connection with the Insulate Britain protests a couple of months ago. The issue is the delay (sometimes months or years) in getting a case to court.
Police cannot keep offenders (innocent of course until proven guilty) in custody - so they are let out on bail and often re-offend.
The justice and court system in this country is broken - for simple offences they should be before a magistrate the next morning, for more complex a short delay may be acceptable.
Properly fund the courts and get rid of the delays. Those found guilty of disruptive anti social behaviour should get large fine + a suspended custodial sentence, implemented for repeat offences.
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>> The justice and court system in this country is broken - for simple offences they
>> should be before a magistrate the next morning, for more complex a short delay may
>> be acceptable.
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Rushed justice if often not justice at all.
A short delay may not be long enough, even for simple cases. It takes time to gather evidence and build a defence case.
I am aware that the police are refusing to hand over body worn video footage in what appears to be civil cases against the police but are actually cases where the CPS refuses to act so private prosecutions are undertaken.
I know a case where a prosecution at the magistrates took place and took 3 months to get the trial. The police evidence was provided to the prosecution solicitor the night before (after 17:30) and when they complained that there was no time to or independently test to counter the evidence they were effectively told "tough".
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An error in the above - should be --- provided to the defence solicitor ---!
I wasn't concentrating as I was watching Magnum Force.
Last edited by: zippy on Sat 1 Jan 22 at 03:18
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>> An error in the above - should be --- provided to the defence solicitor ---!
>>
>> I wasn't concentrating as I was watching Magnum Force.
A mans got to know his limitations.
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When a policeman starts issuing a specification for the justice system he should first be ignored. I'm sure it would all be much more efficient if the police also provided the judge and jury.
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I must say, lack of funding seems to crop up in a lot of conversations these days. Whether it's the NHS, education, social care or whatever.
Problem is, funding costs money which ultimately comes from the taxpayer. Though I hear people say they'd willingly pay a few more pence tax to fund whatever their pet cause is at the time, if it actually came to it and maybe 10p was added to tax to (partly) cover the shortfalls, people wouldn't be so happy about it.
I don't know what the answer is though.
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Maybe just scaremongering by the press, as I was told it was when I reported the appearance of the now dominant Omicron variant, but apparently a new variant has been identified in France, originating in Cameroon.
tinyurl.com/yjzrnc9b
WHO not yet commented on it but the article contains a link to a preprint about it with technical detail. No info about severity, transmissibility etc yet. May be nothing.
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Thailand Medical News appears to be a bunch of nut-jobs, read the "About" page on the website.
The report they link to and have sensationalised is on the medRxiv site which clearly states:
Preprints are preliminary reports of work that have not been certified by peer review. They should not be relied on to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information.
And from my brief reading of the actual report (my medical knowledge stops at aspirin), it just looks like some researchers in France have identified a variant that, when compared to the original Wuhan virus, has some of the properties (mutations) of other variants (remember Beta, Gamma, Theta etc. ?) but isn't exactly the same as others so they've added it's profile to the list and called it IHU.
By the sound of it, there have been lots of different mutations identified and cataloged, which is logical for evolutionary progress, but most are localised and unsuccessful.
I ain't getting excited yet.
Just sayin.
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That's fine, I wasn't intending to promote excitement, but some are saying now we have a weak variant it's all over and I don't personally think it is.
The preprint wasn't published as established info, it was presented as a preprint. They are quite commonly published and this doesn't devalue them.
The WHO has a number "under monitoring" which is about their lowest level of recognition and threat (below Variants of Concern and Variants of Interest, and I just noticed that this one was added to that list near the end of Nov, about the same time as Omicron, so clearly it isn't as transmissible, at least!
Just for interest & clarity, "under monitoring" is defined as "A SARS-CoV-2 variant with genetic changes that are suspected to affect virus characteristics with some indication that it may pose a future risk, but evidence of phenotypic or epidemiological impact is currently unclear, requiring enhanced monitoring and repeat assessment pending new evidence."
www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/
and I was moderately interested in this page which shows some boffins (I presume) discussing the formation of a new lineage. github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/297 but it is of no consequence other than of interest, showing amongst other things, that, at least at a high level, they know a reasonable amount about the characteristics of a new variant before it appears in the press - and these are just the chappies placing it in a list.
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>> By the sound of it, there have been lots of different mutations identified and cataloged,
>> which is logical for evolutionary progress, but most are localised and unsuccessful.
>>
>> I ain't getting excited yet.
>>
>> Just sayin.
Isn't that how science works?
Preprints are work in progress; they may or may not go further.
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>Isn't that how science works?
Perhaps I wasn't clear enough, probably my accent.
I wasn't being critical of the French research folks. They seem to have done everything by the book as far as I can see. Including a description of their methods and the tools they used - something our own 'experts' have tried to avoid.
I was being critical of the, frankly dangerous, scum who took their innocuous paper and carefully misreported and sensationalised it to try and scare those who are unwilling or unable to wade through the jargon and understand what it actually said.
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Well omicron is the 15th (I think…) letter of the Greek alphabet, and the WHO only names new variants that are of interest or particular concern doesn’t it? So the total number of variants could be many multiples of 15. I don’t think I’ll panic yet.
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Well we know it mutates and unless it dies out it will continue to do so.
Virology and this type of coronavirus are clearly very complicated and only deeply understood by people who are very bright and know a great deal about it, basically excluding nearly everybody including me. But there's nothing to stop the ordinary herbert doing a crude thought experiment..
Take a middling mutation, perhaps an amalgam of what we have seen so far, as a baseline.
A new mutation can be more or less infectious, more or less deadly (severe), and more or less vaccine resistant. Other dimensions exist but using those 3, you would say that of 8 permutations of better and worse, one of the 8 is a serious problem - more severe, more infectious, more vaccine resistant. 4 of the 8 are not vaccine resistant and of the remaining 3 all are either less infectious, less severe, or both. But a more severe, more infectious, more vaccine resistant one will emerge from time to time.
It seems likely to me that vaccines that are updated periodically might well be necessary to get on top of Covid and prevent a repetition. Herd immunity would only really work with a virus that doesn't easily mutate - otherwise the virus only has to survive somewhere, possibly dormant, for it to come back and mutate at some point and recreate the same havoc.
If and when the emergency recedes, the politicians and the public will decide whether we continue mass vaccination as a preventative precaution. I fear that the politicians will choose not to spend the money on it, and if they do, much of the population won't see the need for a jab. If that is the case, we could have further pandemics from time to time. We should also not forget that much of the world has still to make real progress with vaccination anyway and there will probably always be a reservoir of infection somewhere.
We can hope for a magic bullet of course. That many people can now live with HIV is almost miraculous, but it would be foolish to assume that science can always win.
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I ain't no virologist but it seems to me that Coronavirus' infectivity is inversely proportionate to its lethality.
Ranging from MERS with 35% mortality (R value typically <1), original flavour SARS with 10% mortality (R value 0.5 to 1), to SARS CoV-2 (Omicron) with <0.1% mortality (R value 4-5).
I suspect greater infectivity is associated with more infections in the nose/throat with less respiratory sequelae but larger amounts of virus ejected by cough/sneeze, and more mortality associated with variants that infect deeper in the respiratory tract but less prone to spray droplets everywhere.
This is of course likely to be overly simplistic, and it is entirely possible to be completely wrong!
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>>
>> This is of course likely to be overly simplistic, and it is entirely possible to
>> be completely wrong!
>>
....information provided by the University of Wetherspoons..... ;-)
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>> This is of course likely to be overly simplistic, and it is entirely possible to
>> be completely wrong!
It boils down to one thing, its a stupid virus that kills all of its hosts, its just not fundamental nature. At the end of the day its just somewhere on the food chain.
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Viruses don't think. Presumably there's nothing to stop them being stupid, or to mutate to be infectious for an extended period before the host gets seriously ill.
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You mean like a fair proportion of humans?
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>> Viruses don't think. Presumably there's nothing to stop them being stupid, or to mutate to
>> be infectious for an extended period before the host gets seriously ill.
No-one said they did, they are ruled by the laws of evolution tho. Has a virus completely wiped out its hosts and since departed itself?
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Ebola gave it a good go. Hopefully the Zaire strain has gone.
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>> Ebola gave it a good go. Hopefully the Zaire strain has gone.
Exactly, far too deadly for its own good, and disappeared. Its a complex old world.
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There are numerous different coronaviruses including flu and pneumonia.
They all have the capacity to mutate and the flu vaccine is modified each year.
Flu and pneumonia kill - mainly elderly and infirm, also some younger folk with other disorders.
Not since the flu pandemic 100 years ago has a mutation caused as much disease as Covid 19 - but clearly it can happen.
My personal guess is that there will be one or two more rounds of mutation after omicron, each of somewhat less impact. By then a form of herd immunity will have kicked in as vaccinations, and previous exposure to different variants will of built up material immunity.
It will then be like the flu - it will not be eliminated, some will get infected each year with generally moderate symptoms, and a few (as with flu) will succumb.
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"Viruses don't think. Presumably there's nothing to stop them being stupid, or to mutate to be infectious for an extended period before the host gets seriously ill."
Like all living things including us a virus has but one ultimate aim. i.e to reproduce Everything else it does is ultimately in support of that one aim. A virus has no mechanism that enables it to reproduce by itself. I hijacks the cells ot its host, in the case of Covid that us, to carry out that task for it.
It therfore follows that its best strategy is to infect as many people as possible but not to kill them. If it kill its host it dies too. Obviously a virus done not deliberately embark on that strategy but evolutions will deliver that option as a virus that can do that will outperform its competitors.
It's survival of the fittest.
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Virus evolution isn't the same as say human evolution.
The finches that Darwin observed got their big beaks because they improved survival chances - survival of the fittest to reproduce improves the breed, crudely, although there might be the occasional dead end and extinction through over-specialisation. Mutation has an essential role in evolution and every useful feature will have originated with it but breeding selects for the useful ones.
AIUI, viruses don't come in male and female form to selectively combine useful genes so depend solely on accidental mutation plus infecting hosts to change. A mutation can be useful, or the opposite of that. I'd guess most are probably for the worse (for the virus). It might not be sensible for a virus to evolve to kill its hosts but that's not going to stop it. Such a mutant might die out quickly, but that's not guaranteed, especially if it happens to be nicely infectious and transmissible for a reasonable period before the host succumbs.
i'm aware that evolution is actually very complicated, I'm no expert and I have quite possibly misconstrued it but I'm pretty sure it's wrong to assume that Covid could never become much more lethal even if there does seem to be some inverse correlation between severity and infectiousness.
The downside of Omicron is that there is a huge amount of replication going on with the high rate of infections and therefore more mutation opportunities.
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Viruses mutate frequently.
Infection will create some immunity to other similar viruses - up to but probably not not 100%.
If mutation kills the host it will is difficult for the virus to spread to other hosts.
If a virus causes severe illness it will have less opportunity to spread, reducing transmission
Viruses which don't kill the host survive and are able to spread.
Those that spread fastest will dominate the reproductive process.
Therefore, with no planning involved, natural selection will favour those viruses which spread rapidly and whose hosts are relatively unaffected by their existence.
Omicron may be on this pathway!
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Smallpox (variola major) didn't seem to lessen in virulence throughout its 2000-odd year recorded history, although there was a lesser variant that was very rarely fatal (variola minor).
Reckoned to have killed half-a-billion people worldwide between 1870 and 1970.
Of course it is the posterboy for organised mass vaccination.
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Suffering from Flurona as it is sometimes known
www.timesofisrael.com/flurona-israel-records-its-first-case-of-patient-with-covid-and-flu-at-same-time/
Some folks do take a chance.
A great story for anti vaxers.
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NHS clearly under pressure but more from absences than illness.
Numbers admitted to hosp have dropped in London, the rest of the country should follow soon.
Need to review the NHS.
twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1477941212648808451?s=12
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That’s my social life down the pan this week...tested +ive this morning.
Three negative LFTs in the past 6 days and wasn’t expecting that. No symptoms apart from a silly cough, mainly at night, which began on the 30th after a particularly long and damp walk in the Lakes.
TBH I’m not entirely surprised...more than my fair share of afternoon drinking in quiet pubs with friends since I returned from Spain, although last week it was noticeably busier in every pub but not unduly so. On a very few occasions my local pubs were so busy I turned around and walked home. All friends bar one are still testing negative....on the positive side I’ll build up some antibodies and save some money.
It was my turn to pick up friends for walking tomorrow so I’ll get ribbed about that...no volunteering duties or organised walks for me for a while.
It will be interesting to see if any further symptoms develop...I’ve just ordered a home PCR test, started Spring cleaning, will lay more loft insulation this week and if I get really bored I can play with the NHS bowel cancer screening kit which arrived recently.
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For two nights I've been coughing quite a bit, OK during the day though. Been testing each day and so far negative.
I was with a bloke the other day who said he was quite keen to get Omicron, to give him antibodies. Not so sure it really works like that now, and you obviously can't determine which variant you catch, though I suppose on the law of averages it is likely to be Omicron not Delta at the moment.
Hope you get well soon LL without any suffering...
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 3 Jan 22 at 15:22
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Sorry to hear that, LL. At least you've got youth on your side!
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>> get really bored I can play with the NHS bowel cancer screening kit which arrived
>> recently.
Its much easier than the last one, no more poo advent calendar doors. Just dont stir your coffee with the little spoon afterwards.
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Strong coffee might just mask the taste.
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...is that the voice of experience...?
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Just dont
>> stir your coffee with the little spoon afterwards.
>>
Coffee. drink of the devil. Copious amounts of Yorkshire Tea or tap water....
Surprised I haven’t caught some variant earlier. Immediately prior to lockdown in Spain, March 2020, there were some cracking parties in bars as they emptied their barrels of Mahou and Alhambra at half price.
Two decent days of weather in the forecast, so I’ll be out walking like ‘jimmy no mates’ to keep the legs going and avert cabin fever.
Obviously no shops or pubs, and living in the sticks word gets around fast. I’ve had that many offers of food delivery from friends it’s embarrassing.
I think they’re hedging their bets...
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"... tested +ive this morning."
Same here. Been feeling grotty for three days now and last night was NOT good. Hacked off? Oh yeah - and to make it worse it was quite clearly brought to the house by a guest over Christmas who went home and then tested positive.
I have been mega-cautious - have avoided virtually all socialising. Haven't been on holiday since autumn 2019. Do supermarket shopping at the crack of dawn etc. etc.
Great start to the new year.
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"if I get really bored I can play with the NHS bowel cancer screening kit"
Make sure you swab the nostrils and tonsils first.
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>> That’s my social life down the pan this week...tested +ive this morning. Monday 3rd.
Requested PCR test the same day online. Returned.
Found out there was a walk in PCR test locally today, and as it’s free decided to book online and call in this AM as I set off on my walk.
Awaiting the result of both tests...two wonderful days walking from my back door, blue skies, temp around freezing on the tops and superb 360 views. I’m still asymmetric with one hip better than the other.
I unexpectedly met other friends out walking on the tops...they too tested positive with LFTs a few days ago but no symptoms either.
Am I correct in thinking that if you test +ive with a LFT at home, then you should consequently take a PCR, either at home by requesting one online or visiting a pop up testing centre ?
I’ve done both. Fingers crossed after 7 days, two negative LFTs on consecutive days will mean I can play out again with friends ?
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>> Am I correct in thinking that if you test +ive with a LFT at home,
>> then you should consequently take a PCR, either at home by requesting one online or
>> visiting a pop up testing centre ?
Rules change for taking Covid PCR tests
There's been an announcement on Covid tests today. The rules are changing, and now mean that if you test positive with a lateral flow test but don't have any symptoms, you do not need to get a follow-up PCR. People who have symptoms will still need to take a PCR test regardless - and anyone who tests positive with any test but self-isolate.
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>> Rules change for taking Covid PCR tests
On day6 after testing +ive I’ll take a lateral flow. If negative I’ll take another the following day, so in theory on day 7 I’m good to go.
I think that you could count down from when you first developed symptoms, but as I don’t have any......
I do know someone who tested +ive with a lateral flow, didn’t bother with a PCR and waited until two consecutive negative LFTs before coming out of isolation. Which was day 7. Not playing by ‘the rules’ but rarely does.
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Here's a nicely balanced and up to date set of tweets on where we are.
twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1478339769646166019?s=21
This bloke seems to be am FT journo but also a data wizz.
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Today's tweet (multi part) from Chris Hopson - slightly less upbeat as the hospitals outside London are seeing it slightly differently from just following on from London.
twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1478786960303005698?s=21
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The Serbian tennis player Novak Djokovic has been granted exemption from vaccination requirements in order to enter Australia and play in Melbourne at the Australian Open.
Some Australians are upset.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-59876203
Last edited by: Duncan on Wed 5 Jan 22 at 07:04
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Can't we claim the whole of England's Ashes squad are unvaccinated and the tour should be void?
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>> The Serbian tennis player Novak Djokovic has been granted exemption from vaccination requirements in order
>> to enter Australia and play in Melbourne at the Australian Open.
>>
However
www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/12509380/novak-djokovic-told-you-must-comply-with-strict-border-requirements-despite-covid-19-vaccination-exemption-for-australian-open
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>> Some Australians are upset.
Another shrimp on the barbie will no doubt calm them down.
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>> >> Some Australians are upset.
>>
>> Another shrimp on the barbie will no doubt calm them down.
I doubt it, barbie's were banned for a long time in Melbourne, the people are now revolting. (Yes I know they always were)
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Sounds like there could be a disconnect between the tennis authorities and the boarder staff as they've said they won't let him in unless he complies with the current rules.
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>> Sounds like there could be a disconnect between the tennis authorities and the boarder staff
>> as they've said they won't let him in unless he complies with the current rules.
Its a disconnect between national government, and regional government. Australia is very federalist controlled, the states control CV policy. Western Australia for example shut its borders to the rest of the states.
Victoria can allow who it likes in CV wise, only problem is that Canberra controls international immigration.
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Entry refused
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-59889522
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 5 Jan 22 at 21:33
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...it's not over, that's simply "advantage Australia"....
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He's been deported - no hanging around for an appeal.
'His treatment has provoked outrage in his native Serbia. His father, Srdjan Djokovic said his son was had been in a room guarded by police.
"This is not just a fight for Novak, but a fight for the whole world," he said in a statement released to the media.
President Aleksander Vucic said the star was a victim of "harassment", and that "the whole of Serbia", supported him.' (BBC.com)
That's all right, then.
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Djokovic is an egotist who thinks he is exempt from the rules Oz has put in place. He is wrong, and a fool. Covid can do to him what it has done to so many others.
It is not done to offend Serbia. Oz have every right to enforce their own laws which seem both fair and reasonable, and (AIUI) would be applied to others similarly trying to gain entry.
Last edited by: Terry on Thu 6 Jan 22 at 00:56
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I think we know why it's been done, it will please the mob and there's an election looming.
Apparently there are others in the tournament with exemptions.
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>> I think we know why it's been done, it will please the mob and there's
>> an election looming.
Their politicians are British trained, albeit without the rough conner's knocked off, and about 50 years behind the curve.
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>> He's been deported - no hanging around for an appeal.
He's been treated like anybody else entering Oz and required to demonstrate he's complying with the rules. So far the officials say he does not have the evidence needed.
He has not (yet) been deported. He's in a quarantine hotel pending a legal challenge.
Given the attempts of various politicians including the Oz PM to intervene judicial oversight seems wholly appropriate and one of the safeguards required in a civilized democracy.
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Yet the English (alleged) cricketers could enter without being fully vaccinated due to a special exemption.
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Anyone deported from Australia is barred from re-entry for the following three years. This could get interesting.
I've got the popcorn.
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>> Yet the English (alleged) cricketers could enter without being fully vaccinated due to a special
>> exemption.
Ah well, yes, you see, thrashing the Poms at cricket is a fantastic antidote for the general populous.
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Had to laugh at the headline in tha Australian Daily Telegraph after the third test match...
'NEED A RAPID TEST, PLAY THE POMS'
Last edited by: helicopter on Thu 6 Jan 22 at 12:15
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"He has not (yet) been deported."
Yes - that seems to be correct. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere yesterday evening he had been removed, but I must have been mistaken, or the report was inaccurate.
Interestingly, according to some news reports today, he has claimed exemption to vaccination on the ground that he is allergic to every Covid vaccine. This could be an extremely stupid move. For one thing, it's unlikely he could establish the truth of it and, secondly, it reveals that he has not been vaccinated, something he has refused to discuss in the past.
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He is a deluded nutter - but a top class tennis player.
Given his bizarre beliefs I can understand why he would want to take no risk (however small) that may compromise his playing ability. Reality doesn't intrude on the intellectual deliberations of the eccentrically minded - he believes he is right.
I would support denial of entry unless he can demonstrate beyond doubt the he should be exempt based upon accepted criteria and Oz laws. To do otherwise would simply legitimise stupidity.
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>>I can understand why he would want to take no risk
>> (however small) that may compromise his playing ability.
I understand around 25% of professional footbalers are unvaccinated. Presumably, because they feel any side effects would compromise their ability. Perhaps other athletes feel the same?
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It's emerged it is likely he was given an exemption due to earlier positive tests.
www.fcfcoa.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-01/MLG%2035%20of%202022%20-%20Applicant%27s%20submissions.pdf
EDIT: It seems to me that, reading that document, (which I now realise is a Submission by him rather than a judgement) The Delegate (I think an immigration official) made a bad decision that he was not exempt, despite him having the right credentials and visa.
It also seems undue pressure was put on him to accept the decision i.e. the Delegates supervisors tried to persuade him to accept the decision in advance of talking with his legal and team people, and as he wouldn't accept it and didn't want to rouse his people early, they simply cancelled his visa because they wouldn't wait for his team.
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 8 Jan 22 at 09:19
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>> Torygraph paywalled but story here
>>
>> sports.yahoo.com/science-sceptic-novak-djokovic-became-124836695.html
>>
>> "Novax" Djokovic raised a smile.
>>
I assumed everyone on here is a Telegraph subscriber. Is that not so?
Novax Djocovid is not bad.
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>> I assumed everyone on here is a Telegraph subscriber. Is that not so?
No they are not, but your patronage is not a surprise and explains much.
(tho being a Spoons patron, I would have thought a subscription to the sun was more in line)
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>>I assumed everyone on here is a Telegraph subscriber. Is that not so?
Not for 10 years or more. I hung on for the crossword, but it was so carp I gave up in the end. I think when I started buying it, it employed 400 journalists. Are there any left?
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Politically I regard myself as slightly right of centre.
But the Telegraph (sadly) is as polarised toward the right as the Guardian is to the left.
Guardian journalists skew the facts with similar skill, but IMHO their quality is higher.
Two years ago the Telegraph stopped reporting circulation figures which were anyway declining rapidly. They are publishing backwater appealing mainly to the over 60s in traditional England, may soon be history.
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I think quite a few others have stopped publishing their readership figures, their numbers are falling about 5-10% a year. I wonder how many readers will be left in, say 2030?
Anyone on here buy a paper on a regular basis?
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>> Anyone on here buy a paper on a regular basis?
Not now, stopped in 2013 when I left the Civil Service and stopped commuting.
If I still had an hour's train journey then I might still buy the paper version but would explore electronic options on a tablet too.
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Yes, Times on Saturday and the Sunday Times. It gives me the right of centre view, (not far right like the Torygraph) but more importantly with all the articles and supplements provides breakfast reading right up to Thursdayish
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I've not read a paper for many years, except the weekend Times which were really good vfm.
However I stopped them a couple of years back as I seem to have less time for reading papers than ever, now I'm retired!! :-) I expect I'll be back onto them in a couple of years.
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I subscribe to the digital version of The Times and the FT, and have the Economist delivered. I’ll occasionally pick up a printed copy of the Sunday Times - it is more enjoyable reading the printed copy than the iPad version, but the habit of always getting it has been broken over the last few years.
My brother and his wife get the Telegraph and the Guardian on Saturday occasionally, just for the entertainment of comparing the right/left bias interpretation of the same events. I don't buy either as a physical paper, but do read the odd article I come across online. Viewspapers not Newspapers… And what used to be called the tabloids now just use clickbait headlines to drive traffic to their sites as far as I can see
An old sketch, but just as valid today, give or take I think :)
youtu.be/DGscoaUWW2M
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I see the claims are now that he tested positive for Covid on 16 Dec. Somewhat troubling that he has then been pictured maskless at various children’s activities on the 17th…….
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>> And what used to be called the tabloids now just use
>> clickbait headlines to drive traffic to their sites as far as I can see
>>
...the headlines bearing little or no relationship to the underlying story "detail".
But, IME, they all do that, and the Telegraph is just (about) as bad.
I get most of my new through an eclectic choice of online links, but, if I want the full newspaper experience albeit online, the local library provides free links (via library id), to Pressreader.com, where I can peruse in detail the full contents of a mahoosive selection of newspapers, magazines etc. from around the world (including the UK, and current and archived editions).
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I have access to all the daily papers six days a week, it is rare that I'll even take one off the shelf to open it. I do read the Times, Mail and Guardian online but quiet times in the shop I read a magazine.
Mind you, our newspaper sales have gone up since the start of lockdown with home deliveries increased by over thirty percent.
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To return to the topic (or one of them - one of the more recent ones):
If this (Daily Mail, unfortunately) story is accurate, it looks as if he's screwed his credibility -
"Djokovic is pictured hugging children at event the day AFTER 'positive Covid test' that his lawyers say earned him a written exemption Australian government excusing him from vaccination rules"
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...that would depend on whether it was a targeted test, or a "routine" one taken on the 16th, but results received after his engagements on the 17th.
(Or, of course, there was no such test or infection)
Frankly, I think he's rather making a mess of things, and possibly trashing his reputation (such as it is), but cut him a bit of slack - I find it rather unbelievable even he would have done the above knowing he was positive.
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The best thin he can do right now is withdraw (which if had done it right up front, it would be a non event and his reputation in tact)
As it is, the Aussies hate him and will give him a right hard time at the match*, his fellow pros have been less than supportive, in fact taking every opportunity to dig the knife in, and his box office value has plummeted. Of course that may well motivate him!
*Aussies usually worship sporting greats, but when they turn - boy its total and vicious.
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Wow, thanks for the Pressreader tip T&E, I didn't know about that but my local library number allows me in :-)
EDIT: it's fine on my PC but has been "Loading Publications" on my phone for ages.
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 8 Jan 22 at 15:14
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...I had the same experience on my tablet.
The (selected) publications will download for off-line reading.
ISTR that there is a non-too-obvious option simply to read online.
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Not got as far as publications yet. On the PC it came up with a screenful of preferred ones which I could then browse. Not yet got that on the phone. But I'm a bit busy with trying to get a Zigbee network back up so will look later.
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>>Anyone on here buy a paper on a regular basis?
"i".
Unvarnished, fairly concise, no supplements, good puzzles. And fairly cheap on subscription. Seems to have maintained this quite well despite having been owned by the Daily Mail & General Trust or the last couple of years.
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...well, it went to deuce, but it's back to "advantage Australia" again....
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>> ...well, it went to deuce, but it's back to "advantage Australia" again....
>>
Or possible game, set and match Australia, given his match is Monday…?
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He seems to be hours away from deportation and facing a three-year ban.
Can't say I'm sorry, but I also think Australia has made a right pig's ear of handling this.
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Yup, Game Set & Match Australia.
And the whole thing is a very good example of how Australian governance is very close to ours. Ie a Whitehall farce.
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Departed Melbourne for Dubai at 11:30 GMT.
Over and out.
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You have to hand it to the Aussies when it come to tennis... they do know how to return a Serb!
(Coat : Got)
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Ventured out to Bluewater on our first new year shopping visit...
I guess I should have expected a certain level of non-mask wearing but was surprised by the numbers, at each entrance there are big red signs reminding that it is now law to wear one and there were several tannoy reminders but a very quick/rough count up as I was looking down onto the lower floor meant I reckoned it was as low as 6/10 complying!
Re-reading the Govt website you only need to have a 'reasonable excuse' not to have to wear one... each time I see someone I do wonder what their 'real' reason is?
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I would expect to see it more often as time goes on, wearing masks isn't a cultural norm here. More people will start to make their own decisions about what to do and when.
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What pees me off is the smug look on the faces on the non-compliers, almost as if they're thinking 'I'm not doing anything I don't want to and you can't make me'.
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You manage your own risk, if you think the maskless are a risk, to yourself - then wear one and be smug yourself,
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>> You manage your own risk, if you think the maskless are a risk, to yourself
>> - then wear one and be smug yourself,
I do wear one, but I understand that's to prevent me infecting anyone else, unless the advice has changed?
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... 'to people who aren't going to be very ill, says expert
Didn't they previously say the vaccines were preventing people becoming seriously ill? Anyway, we appaer to be moving towards the new normal...
@12:41 on this page news.sky.com/story/covid-live-news-uk-omicron-latest-nhs-crisis-as-troops-deployed-to-hospitals-and-djokovic-awaits-deportation-decision-12507015
"The former head of the UK's vaccines taskforce has called for mass vaccination to end after the booster campaign.
"Speaking to Sky News just now, Dr Clive Dix said the original vaccines were designed to stop infection and transmission as well as serious disease.
"But new, more transmissible variants mean they "do not stop infections any more", even though they are still very effective at preventing severe illness.
"Dr Dix said we are dealing with a "much, much milder variant" now so it is "pointless giving more and more vaccine to people who are not going to get very ill".
"Instead, we should take a "much more targeted approach" and give protection to the most vulnerable while allowing society to return to a "new normal".
"People should just go to work, go about their business, if they get ill go home and stay at home," he said.
"Stop measuring case numbers and getting fixated by stopping those numbers."
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I agree - the statistics being published may have been completely appropriate a year ago, but the need is now very different.
Explicit daily updates of hospital admissions, ICU and deaths should separate those:
- who are unvaccinated
- whose principle reason for being hospitalised is non-covid
- who are elderly or infirm anyway - bluntly any illness could tip them over the edge
- vaccinated and boosted who would otherwise likely have remained in good health
Only the final group represent the "real" covid toll.
Sadly the media like big numbers because it helps them sell more papers. We need a rational approach to the real risks and appropriate measures to control those real risks where necessary.
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If you calculate the deaths as you suggest, you will presumably understate them by the number of dead who were ether undiagnosed or untested.
Also I don't think you can just discount the elderly. Life expectancy of an 80 year old is about 8 years, with a risk of death in the next year below 10%.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/59870550
I guess everyone has to have a hobby.
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Free thinking men who will swallow a conspiracy.theory.
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I see the PM has lifted covid restrictions.
Apparently the medical rationale is that lifting restrictions saves his a***, not the nations health!
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 20 Jan 22 at 11:29
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>> I see the PM has lifted covid restrictions.
>>
>> Apparently the medical rationale is that lifting restrictions saves his a***, not the nations health!
To be fair* most of the science agrees lifting is right. Unless you are a Welsh first minister who lambasts Bojo for doing it then announces he will do it next week.
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Re testing
Information from daughters medical friends is that the omicron variant is best tested using throat plus nasal swab, and is detectable up to three days earlier if you do. You can still use the newer LFT tests which say to just swab nose, wiped over tonsils four times each side, then nose for ten turns. You can test positive this way and still test negative if you do a nose only test for a couple of days.
Interestingly, spent a week staying in Hertfordshire with daughter and family, adults all boostered, two of us considered vulnerable. Four year old started coughing, we discovered that 12/28 from her class have Covid, as she has. Two days later Dad tested positive- he does her bedtime so most contact. Mum the following day. Both are pretty poorly now. Despite being there neither 7 year old nor I have succumbed, although we went into full mask/hand wash mode and eating separately asap. Eliza is autistic, so living her best life with no people and being allowed virtually unlimited screen time and full access to treat drawer.
Having had negative PCR result as well as daily LFT, I came home yesterday as younger son is due home from respite tomorrow.
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>> plus nasal swab, and is detectable up to three days earlier if you do. You
>> can still use the newer LFT tests which say to just swab nose, wiped over
>> tonsils four times each side, then nose for ten turns.
Tricky tho. the newer nose only test has quite short swabs,
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Indeed. They don’t make life easy! However, the latest pack delivered in Hertfordshire were the older style packs, which I hadn’t seen in a while.
Ones from Day Service have only just changed to nose only, which is sensible as there is no way i, or the support worker, can access the tonsils of our subject!
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The restrictions haven't changed when on NHS sites and full mask wearing is still mandatory in all enclosed areas.... we often have 'issues' with members of the public who insist that the rules have changed.
Constantly on our weekly webinars the management have to remind staff that the recent rule changes on isolation and mask wearing don't apply to health staff.
03/02 is the critical date to look at as that is the last day staff working in any CQC approved health site have to have had their first jab.
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I hear that in Belgium and Germany are seeing record new cases, also that the Delta variant is starting to increase again in Germany now that Omicron is slipping down the charts.
Just hearsay at the moment, nothing more.
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And Western Australia is teetering on the edge of a very nasty shock indeed.
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"White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are highly susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2, with multiple reports of widespread spillover of virus from humans to free-living deer."
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.04.479189v1
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but it isn't...
Variant BA.2 of Omicron is taking off in some countries.
edition.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html
which links ot this paper
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.14.480335v1.full.pdf (very slow loading for me)
Some phrases
"spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19"
"may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta"
"it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely."
"resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron."
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My favourite words in all that are may, may, appears and some.
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Charlie will do anything to hurry along his accession... :-)
www.bbc.com/news/uk-60453566
Get well soon!!
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I wonder if there's a special name for the person given the task of doing the LFT on the Queen?
Bit like the 'Grooming of the stool' in the past.
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Tickler pursuivant of the tonsils?
No Andrew jokes now please!! :-)
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Colleague - the aforementioned work wife - is worried she's brought Covid into the office and broken rules doing so.
Her son's girlfriend brought it into her home and son and husband both caught it. Husband is 20+ years her senior, ie mid seventies, and has respiratory issues (ex smoker) but seems to be on the mend. He was self isolating in the house with food etc left at the bedroom door - not that it was necessary.
On my reading, as she's fully jabbed, she didn't need to self isolate:
www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-and-treatment/when-to-self-isolate-and-what-to-do/
See "When you do not need to self-isolate".
She tested positive on Friday.
I've tested yesterday and today - both -ve. I did though feel feverish and ropy yesterday evening.
In any event two folks from the outfit who rent the floor above and share stairs, lifts and other facilities so it's in the building anyway.
Am I missing something?
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sun 20 Feb 22 at 13:10
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A bit OT, my daughter went to Portugal for a long weekend last w/e and is now in isolation out there. She went out to see her mate who lives there, and whose kids were snotty and cold ridden but all over her when she arrived - so that may well be the source.
Luckily the family of her friend own a flat in the same town and have kindly let her stay there, and she is being brought supplies by her friends. She doesn't have a car or anyone else there to support her and in some respects it is a nightmare for her. She doesn't speak the lingo and although they mostly do around the resort, she has had trouble finding detail of what she has to do and how to do it.
Yesterday she felt a little better but while people say no worse than a cold, for her it is, particularly the raging headache. I love the fact that we can now video call as she is pretty stressed over it and really needs someone to talk with to get her through. It also helps us keep an eye on her condition, which I know she has played down to not worry us but I've made sure she knows how to summon emergency help if required.
She had her 1st positive LFT on Tuesday and a positive PCR test on Thursday and has to isolate for, I think, 7 days from when she first showed symptoms. She thinks she'll be allowed to fly back on Thursday.
We're off out there on the following Monday for 6 weeks but are going to be a little more cautious about our personal space!!
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 20 Feb 22 at 13:25
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Coronavirus - Volume 39 - Kevin
