***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 33 *****
==============================================================
Ongoing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 29 Jan 21 at 11:08
|
ICYMI, From the BBC, comments by NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens and Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab...
Since Christmas, patient numbers have risen by 15,000 - the equivalent of 30 full hospitals
There are signs the number of infections are stabilising in some areas, but infections in over-60s continue to rise and pressure on the health service "will only get worse" in next few weeks
The number of critical care beds has increased by 50% since the first wave of the pandemic but a "very small number" of patients are still being transferred to hospitals in other regions
Treatments for Covid are continuing "to evolve and improve" with more patients being treated with oxygen therapy rather than in intensive care
Hospitals will open for vaccinations 24 hours a day, seven days a week, on a trial basis in the next 10 days
The NHS is vaccinating at the rate of 140 jabs a minute, and Sir Simon says he is "confident" the NHS will deliver 1.5 million vaccines this week
No one is being asked to throw away excess vaccines: "Every last drop of vaccine should be used," Sir Simon tells Andrew Marr
With 53,000 NHS staff currently off work for coronavirus-related reasons, Sir Simon "strongly thinks" NHS and social care staff need to be protected with a second vaccine dose.
Sir Simon says vaccinations are happening "four times faster than people are newly catching coronavirus"
He says more than half of over-80s have been vaccinated and many of the jabs given in February and March will be people's second doses
Mr Raab says there is a "three-point road map" for the vaccination programme
Government aim is to deliver 15 million jabs to the four most vulnerable groups by mid-February, and 17 million more doses by spring, encompassing 99% of the most at-risk people
By September, all of the adult population should have been offered a first dose of the vaccine
24-hour vaccine centres are due to be piloted in the next 10 days
Government remains confident it has "flexibility and latitude" to deliver the vaccine roll-out on schedule - and Mr Raab was not aware of any delays in the supply chain
If vaccine roll-out targets are met by mid-February, "we can start to think about a phased transition" out of the national lockdown
Sir Simon says every last drop of the vaccine should be used and no excess doses thrown away
Dominic Raab says people get a "very high" level of protection after receiving one dose of a coronavirus vaccine.
|
|
Hmm is Raab really on top of this? He was remember the man who didn't grasp how much stuff is shifted through Dover every day.
|
|
He's not in charge of this, probably just his turn to go on the Sunday interviews and take the government line.
|
|
Which bits do you doubt Bromps? You know better than anyone that they are often not much more than a mouthpiece, with experts in the Civil Service, NHS, SAGE etc giving them the data - all they do is add the spin.
|
>> Which bits do you doubt Bromps?
Pretty much what you and Sooty say. He was the duty minister on the Sunday political talk shows and just a mouthpiece. I have the impression that, like the PM, he doesn't do detail. He looks like he's a student on work experience...
But then he's at one with most of the Cabinet. Gove, Sunak and the Justice Minister look and sound as if they know their stuff and can get it done. I don't like their politics/policies but at least they're competent.
The rest of them seem to be chosen more for their fealty to Boris than for any real competence. Gavin Williams would never have been appointed most PMs and his subsequent record, particularly around the pandemic, would have seen him sacked or obliged to resign.
|
|
Do you doubt the messages that he delivered? Why ever he was chosen for his job.
|
>> Do you doubt the messages that he delivered?
The one that had my eyebrows where my hair line once was concerned delays in the supply chain.
Reports elsewhere suggest there is a hiatus in supply of the Pfizer vaccine.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/16/uk-faces-delays-delivery-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine/
>>Why ever he was chosen for his job.
Indeed.
|
>> Reports elsewhere suggest there is a hiatus in supply of the Pfizer vaccine.
>>
>> www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/16/uk-faces-delays-delivery-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine/
From that article....
"But the overall number of doses due to be delivered between January and March will remain the same, according to the US firm."
It is difficult to know whether or not there will be delays caused by the supply chain. On balance I would guess that for the UK the chances are that there will not be.
As I understand it, it is those countries not yet built up a head of steam who do not have flexibility or tolerance between delivery and vaccination.
|
>> >> Do you doubt the messages that he delivered?
>>
>> The one that had my eyebrows where my hair line once was concerned delays in
>> the supply chain.
>>
>> Reports elsewhere suggest there is a hiatus in supply of the Pfizer vaccine.
>>
There's no hiatus in supply - just a temporary reduction in capacity while production lines are reconfigured and expanded. Production is not actually stopping. Pfizer have confirmed it won’t impact the quantity scheduled for U.K. delivery in Q1, so just a re-phasing of the delivery schedule. Plus the current bottleneck is testing batches, so if deliveries are lower for a short period I can see why it’s not an issue.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/16/uk-faces-delays-delivery-pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine/
|
>> Plus the current bottleneck is testing batches,
Peter, I might be quite wrong but isn't the batch testing delay related to the AZ vaccine?
|
Well if there's any supply problems of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine the EU are stuffed then aren't they?
They were so busy bickering about how to divvy up the orders so that France got a share they turned down an offer of 500M doses from Pfizer last summer and didn't place firm orders until mid-November. Pfizer have said that orders will be distributed according to population size and when the orders were placed.
To compound their £$%^-up the 300M doses they ordered from French company Sanofi won't arrive before next year at the earliest, if at all, because Sanofi have said that they won't be ready to even seek approval before the end of the year.
|
>>The one that had my eyebrows where my hair line once was concerned delays in the supply chain.
I think you may safely return your eyebrows to more comfortable territory.
|
>> I think you may safely return your eyebrows to more comfortable territory.
I would call what Peter describes as a re-phasing of deliveries a hiatus in the supply chain. If it can be covered by shuffling alternatives like AZ to fill the gaps then maybe less impact on patients.
It's not really Raab's fault they still cannot say whether the temporary uplift to Universal Credit will continue but he didn't exactly sound sincere. Surely any attempt to say it won't continue will inevitably result in a U turn so they might as well go ahead now.
And while they're at it perhaps they could think about whether the Benefit Cap is achieving its policy objective in current circumstances (or whether it ever could).
|
>>I would call what Peter describes as a re-phasing of deliveries a hiatus in the supply chain. If it can be covered by shuffling alternatives like AZ to fill the gaps then maybe less impact on patients.
I don't know what point you so much need to make, but the point is that the rate of delivery of vaccine against the scheduled of delivery of vaccinations mean that there is no break in the delivery of the vaccinations.
However you wish to phase it, I think you'll need to find fault elsewhere. You may wish to check your understanding of supply chain. At best you're getting it confused with delivery schedule and even then from a single supplier.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 17 Jan 21 at 21:54
|
>> I don't know what point you so much need to make,
I think he's trying to say he doesn't like the policies of this government or think they are competent.
|
>> I think he's trying to say he doesn't like the policies of this government or
>> think they are competent.
That I don't like their policies is a given but they're in power until 2024.
My concern now is, as Sooty correctly identifies, their competence in implementing their policies and managing the national crisis in which we now find ourselves.
|
Ah, so in the absence of something you know to be wrong you've resorting to just saying something is wrong anyway.
I'm no lover of this Government, but really, trying to scratch some fault out of a changed delivery schedule with no obvious impact is ridiculous. This is the trap that party politics drags people into.
|
>>Why ever he was chosen for his job.
>>
>> Indeed.
Just think, if you had your way, it would have been Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott in charge.
|
>>
>>
>> Just think, if you had your way, it would have been Jeremy Corbyn and Diane
>> Abbott in charge.
>>
"Hello, Jeremy?"
"Hi Diane, what can I do for you?"
"I'm in Scotland, where is Loch Down?"
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Sun 17 Jan 21 at 22:36
|
|
I think you mean Williamson, well he already has once. Although the issues around that were swept under the carpet and not released. He must have some dirt on some people in government.
|
I can't disagree that it would be reassuring to many if a minister appeared to know a fair bit about his subject but I found some of the best managers I had were those with little depth of experience that just let me get on with the job which I knew well, and took and respected my advice when required, and only gave me guidance when I needed it, rather than trying to do the job for me.
However my memory (mainly kindled by Spitting Image!!) was that in the 70s and thereabouts there were a number of strong characters surrounding the PM but that is less so now.
|
...I once worked for an IT Director who terminated a heated debate with the words "Don't confuse me with the facts, (this) is what we're doing"...... (and it was a good decision).
The same Director, when I approached him with a certain amount of temerity but with entirely valid reasons, to recommend that I develop a major new system entirely against standing policy (set by him), let me get 30 seconds into my explanation before he said "You know what you're doing, go ahead". It was partially a matter of judgement, reputation and trust, and partly a matter of me having the b*lls to go and challenge his policy, and not very much at all to do with him understanding the detail.
He was one of the best senior managers I ever worked for, and I admired him a lot. (And the latter feeling was reinforced when I ran up against him a few years later, and was greeted with "You know, I should have worked harder at keeping my best people" ;-) )
|
>
>> a few years later, and was greeted with "You know, I should have worked harder
>> at keeping my best people" ;-) )
as their replacements were not much cop, talking of which what are you up to these days?
|
tinyurl.com/y68emcu8 - links to www.ons.gov.uk/surveys
Our family are taking part in this. Myself, wife and 22 year old son.
Back in March, wife had all the symptoms of covid the week before lockdown. The difference though was she had lost all sense of taste or smell as well so we assumed it was just some sort of bug she had.
About a month to 6 weeks later it was announced that loss of taste and smell were now a symptom.
The first test in the ONS survey is a blood test for antibodies. My wife has tested positive for having these even though my son and I have tested negative. My daugher who lived with us back in March has also tested positive for the antibodies. So of a family of 4 living together, two have antibodies and 2 don't. Its the strange things you rememeber - I had made pulled pork in the slow cooker overnight. In the morning the house smelt of pulled pork but she couldn't smell a thing! I also remember feeling ill at the time and saying to her "whatever you had, you have given to me". But it would appear she didn't!
Wife is a nurse so has had her vaccination at the end of December so between the antibodies and vaccine, she is probably in as safe a place as possible just now. Sadly, at her hospice she recently had a covid+ patient and two of her colleagues have now tested positive (they are already weekly tested in the hospice but these were drive through tests as a result of having symptoms).
She is not at the coalface the way zippy's daughter is, and she is obviously used to dealing with deaths in a hospice, but when she actually talks you through her day when she's working in the "red zone" it is absolutely horrible to hear, But this is the reality sadly.
On a positive note, if we go through all the ONS tests in the study, we will each receive £400 worth of vouchers! :)
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 19 Jan 21 at 10:55
|
|
My very best to your wife. Working in a hospice must be b***** awful so we should all be thankful that she and the others have the strength to do it.
|
Jeez Bobby, you could even get a second pair of shoes and some change with that...
;-)
|
BBC1 local lunchtime news (look east) showed large banners in Harlow, with Harlow council clearly on them:
Keep 2 meters apart.
They weren't shown on the early evening news.
|
|
Doesn't sound as if they were smart.
|
>> Doesn't sound as if they were smart.
Thats shocking, I'm sure someone has the power to change them.
|
www.bbc.com/news/business-55705798
I'm not sure I understand why people wouldn't be allowed to work from home especially if they had previously.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 19 Jan 21 at 10:59
|
Most of my staff are WFH. Many really want to come into the office to maintain some social interaction but we are trying to be strict. One lady came in yesterday, sat at her desk in an office within no one else there and worked. We all got a bit more done that we would normally, as she was available to put our heads round the door and say "..can you just do...." which she was delighted to do.
The only ones in the office on a 'permanent' basis are those of us who do spend time out on survey anyway. And we are some distance from each other. Three or four of us in a square room 340sq ft; all tucked into the corners.
|
|
I get that from an employee's pov, but from the management? I guess presenteeism and that need to control run deep in some people.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 12 Feb 21 at 10:50
|
Three or four of us in a square room 340sq ft; all tucked into the corners.
>> >>
>>
>> I get that from an employee's pov, but from the management? I guess presenteeism and
>> that need to control run deep in some people.
It has taken a great deal for me to trust staff to WFH effectively. Some are great, some I am not convinced about but I can't tell someone to WFH and another to come in.
I'll know more with the financials in a few months.
|
>> www.bbc.com/news/business-55705798
>>
>> I'm not sure I understand why people wouldn't be allowed to work from home especially
>> if they had previously.
I'd be straight onto HR and H&S co-ordinator and her boss would be toast in a heartbeat.
|
>> I'd be straight onto HR and H&S co-ordinator and her boss would be toast in
>> a heartbeat.
In some places it's a cultural thing and goes all the way to the top. My son in law, in a marine engineering role, can be needed on site or on a vessel. Work he's doing at present is desk based and can be done at home but the employer still wants him on site at least some days a week. He's in the union but I get impression there's little if anything in terms of recognition of union and heads above parapets get shot at.
|
>> My son in law, in a marine engineering role...……..
Big or small company?
(edited - please only include any relevant text from the post you're quoting from, not the whole chapter and verse, as per the pop up request. Thanks)
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 19 Jan 21 at 12:46
|
I guess it depends on why he wants your SiL on site and whether or not it's reasonable.
I assume your SiL knows whether it is a genuine work need or simply a management need to control? Or worse, some HR person who has just decided?
|
>> I assume your SiL knows whether it is a genuine work need or simply a
>> management need to control? Or worse, some HR person who has just decided?
He's fairly clear that it's a cultural thing driven from the top.
|
Re: from volume 31 - Toyah.
I see she's still making a couple of interesting points.
youtu.be/GFaQExRwLUM
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 19 Jan 21 at 12:51
|
|
And a few views to boot. Dont know why (.)(.)
|
Today's bulletin from the Law Society Gazette includes tw juxtaposed articles.
(1) HMCTS Chief says courts safe from the moment you walk in
(2) Solicitor test positive for Covid after seeing client at court.
emailcc.com/rv/ff007179a486aa32ed7a71f2ba4a856f9c802dfd?
|
I earlier posted some links about the SA mutant version which Mark challenged and I accept I had more or less depended on the commentary of others when I posted them.
Having now watched the video, while there is some truths in what I said, the new mutant wasn't described as more deadly, and it stated that studies are still under way about whether current vaccines remain effective.
So on that basis I've withdrawn the comment and links.
Last edited by: smokie on Tue 19 Jan 21 at 19:15
|
Cheers Smokie.
The only thing I'd say though is that we all get it wrong sometimes and often letting it stand can help others.
There's a veritable army of non-registered people who read this forum and sometimes leaving up links, even when proven inaccurate, can help them.
|
Mrs O'Reliant had to call an ambulance for our ninety year old neighbour three weeks ago after she had a fall and spent the night on the living room floor. She had broken her femur and has been in hospital since, early stages of dementia so she is confused and upset, unable to understand why her son hasn't visited her (Obviously he isn't allowed to).
Yesterday he told us she had caught Covid while in hospital and while it is not at a concerning stage yet he is sick with worry, as you can understand. It brings it home when it's someone you know well, and with all the interviews with front line NHS staff being shown on every news bulletin how those anti lockdown idiots think it is either over exaggerated or a hoax is beyond comprehension
|
It brings it home when it's someone you know well, and with all the interviews
>> with front line NHS staff being shown on every news bulletin how those anti lockdown
>> idiots think it is either over exaggerated or a hoax is beyond comprehension
>>
Not really beyond comprehension, lots of people overweigh their own experiences when comparing it to more distance things happening to others.
There's been about 3.5m confirmed cases in the UK, that's not really that many. Most won't know anyone close with a confirmed case let alone know someone in hospital with it. It's easier to ignore when it's distance and remote from you personally.
|
True but the huge jump some male is that because of that there is at least some element of fake news about it.
They overlook that without the interventions and preventative measures the figures would be a lot higher.
|
I have 3 acquaintances who’ve tested positive. Two have been hospitalised. One was in hospital for a week. He was very unfit, carried far too much weight and had underlying health issues.
The second was in hospital for three weeks, super fit, runner, no health issues, and in his own words, his recovery is glacial. Now that did shock me.
Ages were early 60s and mid 50s.
Last edited by: legacylad on Fri 22 Jan 21 at 08:43
|
>> There's been about 3.5m confirmed cases in the UK, that's not really that many. Most
>> won't know anyone close with a confirmed case let alone know someone in hospital with
>> it.
I know several people who have/had covid confirmed. I know 2 who have died.
|
Of course some people will know a confirmed case but my point is for many, confirmed cases/hospitalisation is just something that's on the tv and because of that it's impact is downgraded in their minds. Human nature I guess.
|
The one that really resonated with us was when the daily death toll recently passed 1400, to which my wife commented, "that's like the entire population of our school", she teaches at a local, large secondary.
We have been taking the situation seriously all along without actually knowing anyone who has been hospitalised, far less died of it.
|
>> Of course some people will know a confirmed case but my point is for many,
>> confirmed cases/hospitalisation is just something that's on the tv and because of that it's impact
>> is downgraded in their minds. Human nature I guess.
That wasn't what you said. You said:-
Quote. "Most won't know anyone close with a confirmed case let alone know someone in hospital with it".
Most means a majority. I suggest to you that most people do know someone with a confirmed case.
|
Duncan,
Doe it really matter??
|
The Middle Layer Super Output Area in which I live as of the 2011 census had in round numbers 2,400 households and 5,800 population.
For this area there have been only 2 deaths recorded from March to December due to COVID-19, 1 in March and 1 in December (this is actually pretty low, some similar-sized areas are in double figures, but the point stands).
tinyurl.com/y4nd2mjh
The most prominent COVID denier amongst my acquaintances cites this as an indication of how dangerous COVID isn't.
In a way it's reassuring and it explains why I am not living in abject fear, but I think the issue with deniers is that they can't see beyond the statistical danger to themselves and then they extrapolate this to "it's not dangerous" when the threat is much broader, e.g.to the healthcare system and to society as a whole. They are also disregarding the possibility that, without the precautions they decry, the deaths would be much higher.
I think I am reasonably sceptical which to me means always leaving room for uncertainty. Deniers always say they are sceptical, when what they really mean is disbelieving - and narrow, rather than broad, in their thinking.
|
>> The Middle Layer Super Output Area
Only a government statistician could come up with such a catchy description.
|
That wasn't what you said. You said:-
Quote. "Most won't know anyone close with a confirmed case let alone know someone in hospital with it".
Most means a majority. I suggest to you that most people do know someone with a confirmed case
I think you know what point I'm making, you don't need to a bore about it.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 22 Jan 21 at 10:35
|
Most people have no concept of numbers or risk. 90k dead with Covid sounds like a large number. To put it into some sort of context:
90k dead out of a population of 65m is ~ 1 in 700. 80%+ are over 60.
The average person may know 20-200 people. It is mainly the over 60s who may know some that have died - younger people don't know many older people - very few at work, some elderly relations etc.
3-4m have been infected ~1 in 20. So most younger people will know a few who have been infected. Their experience generally reinforces a view that it is of no great consequence.
I am not trying to trivialise a real problem, but understand why we don't all share the same reaction to images on TV etc.
A typical (say) 25 year old will be acutely aware of changes impacting them - job, income, holidays, social, shopping etc. It is no surprise that TV reports seem somewhat remote.
|
To put 90 k numbers into perspective, imagine a full Twickenham stadium with another 10 k outside...all dead.
That seems like a big number to me..
.
Last edited by: helicopter on Fri 22 Jan 21 at 13:29
|
>> That seems like a big number to me..
It is a big number. But it's a tiny percentage. (0.15% I think).
The measure of risk is severity if it happens * likelihood of it happening.
Obviously whilst the severity is high the likelihood is tiny. Even tinier if you're young and healthy.
For me personally the likelihood is high enough for me to be careful, but that's it.
I was in the pub last night with a bunch of others for the Liverpool / Burnley bore-fest. We're a careful bunch but even so obviously the risk in a pub is higher than the risk alone in a front room.
But I can't just stop living. And I am old and a bit vulnerable. Imagine if I was 25 and healthy.
It's a losing battle.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 22 Jan 21 at 14:58
|
>> > I was in the pub last night with a bunch of others for the Liverpool
>> / Burnley bore-fest. We're a careful bunch but even so obviously the risk in a
>> pub is higher than the risk alone in a front room.
>>
>> But I can't just stop living. And I am old and a bit vulnerable. Imagine
>> if I was 25 and healthy.
>>
>> It's a losing battle.
>
Pubs ever close in Chile?
I read today pubs in the UK might not reopen until May.
|
>> Pubs ever close in Chile?
Oh yes, for a couple of months absolutely everything was closed and there was a 24x7 military enforced curfew where you had to apply for a licence to go out for any reason at all.
It's strange here though. By and large their tendency is to obey the law as long as they are confident that they are not missing out on anything.
If, however, they do think they are missing out then it all crumbles into chaos.
At the moment it's full shut down at the weekends and a weekday curfew from 22:00 to 05:00
Masks everywhere, inside or out. No eating or drinking inside anywhere. Not n a mall, not in a restaurant, not in any building at all. You may take your mask off when sat down to eat or drink outside.
Capacities of individual premises and shopping malls a re tight controlled and socially distanced queues trail along the road outside.
Every now and again there is a rebellion. Like New Years Eve, for example. The authorities do everything they can to discourage it but then disappear just before the event to avoid confrontation which they fear would spread into wide civil disobedience.
The bar I was in last night was visited by the authorities who came in with their tape measures, investigated everything , made a list of recommendations and left. And they will come back to make sure everything as done, but they'll try and do it when the place isn't busy again to avoid igniting confrontation.
It'd be far easier to show you than tell you. Get on a plane and come see. Except there aren't any.
|
|
I think I get the picture, I guess it's a lot easier to keep pubs/bars open as the weather is good enough for outdoor drinking. Be several months before the weather is good enough here, about 4c here today.
|
>>I guess it's a lot easier to keep pubs/bars open as the weather is good enough for outdoor drinking.
Very much so. It's mid 30s most days and always sunny. At this time of year everybody would be sitting outside anyway.
|
>>everybody would be sitting outside anyway.
See, you can do it when you concentrate...
;-)
|
>> >>I guess it's a lot easier to keep pubs/bars open as the weather is good
>> enough for outdoor drinking.
>>
>> Very much so. It's mid 30s most days and always sunny. At this time of
>> year everybody would be sitting outside anyway.
>>
Not jealous at all, it's about 2c here. And grey.
|
|
Aye, you'd not want to be outdoors here either. I doubt patio warmers would be enough.
|
Blue skies, about 32 degrees, the Andes in the background, still with some snow, just about to start cooking on a barbecue which is sheltered under a massive walnut tree. Got a gin & tonic with a lemon I just cut off the tree and no driving to do (we're not allowed out at the weekends).
Life is not always crap here.
|
|
Decent bit of dead cow? Home made kebabs ( my speciality) and a nice salad. Marvellous. Enjoy.
|
|
Large bit of dead cow, two racks of smoked ribs, fresh bell pepper & onion kebabs. A variety of salad stuff.
|
|
Ridiculously though you cannot imagine how much I miss the British weather.
|
>> Ridiculously though you cannot imagine how much I miss the British weather.
>>
Hobbling round with a limp after finding a patch of ice and "Taking the knee" I'd swap with you right now :-(
|
|
If there were any b***** flights I'd take that deal.
|
>> Hobbling round with a limp after finding a patch of ice and "Taking the knee"
>>
....yeah; black ice matters......
|
>>Ridiculously though you cannot imagine how much I miss the British weather
Looks like you're not a lizard then
youtu.be/cLRrF1xUa9w
(Bill Hicks so contains a few swearies)
|
>> Ridiculously though you cannot imagine how much I miss the British weather.
>>
A grey miserable day in the Dales. High of 3C. The freezing hill mist finally lifted at 15:00. Despite being limestone country water is still pouring off the hill, lots of mud, pubs closed, and expensive sirloin steaks at the local butcher this morning.
I’d stay put. Waking up to guaranteed blue skies would be lovely.
|
Yesterday, blue skies 30 something degrees. Tomorrow, blue skies 30 something degrees. A month ago blue skies 30 something degrees. Next month blue skies 30 something degrees.
Very, very boring.
It's very convenient, the weather never inconveniences your life. But I miss storms, and torrential rain, and rough seas, and wind etc. etc. etc.
Admittedly I don't miss grey days of drizzle which are good for no man, but then there are country pubs with real fires, I'm thinking of several I know.
How it'd be without pubs is a different thing.
I've actually lived slightly less of my life in the UK than out of it, but I still love the UK and it's weather, and the type of people I do not wish to be around one can still pay to avoid.
|
Don’t get me wrong, I love the different weather we get to experience. I can cope with days of torrential rain. Love snow, sleet, bright Spring days, long sunny evenings sat in my local pubs SW facing beer garden, autumn mist and frost.
It’s the mid afternoon darkness, weeks of grey skies, days without any sun. I’m certain I suffer from a mild case of SAD, which is why I try to escape most of the winter, early October through late March, mid April, returning to the U.K. for a month or so mid December until late January.
Probably months of constant sun and scorchio temperatures would not suit me either.
|
My friends who went out to Spain with me in early October, and remained, tell me that in the past 24 hours all bars and restaurants in the Valenciana region have closed. 14 days initially.
Today, despite being very windy AM, temps reached 21C. After a strenuous day out on their mountain bikes they were very thirsty. Late afternoon outside a bar would have been very pleasant. But it wasn’t to be.
|
>>when sat down...
Sitting
Christ, how hard can it be?
Welsh though I suppose.
;-)
|
>> Welsh though I suppose.
Well a Yorkshireman would say it that way too.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 23 Jan 21 at 03:37
|
>> Well a Yorkshireman would say it that way too.
Not sure abaht that. It grates with me and we weren't posh. We might have been sittin' dahn but we weren't sat down (unless somebody sat us).
But this ship has sailed. Normal usage now.
|
To put another perspective - I live in a medium size county town with a population of ~ 70k. Similar in size to Twickenham.
Compared to the national UK population the town represents ~0.1% (1/1000).
90k total deaths would averagely result in 90 deaths locally with C19 in the last 10 months - 2 a week. This is a trivial number - although family and friends may understandably be distressed.
Politicians know how to present information to communicate a particular message. The use of a Twickenham image resonates with you - but as I have no interest in rugby, it is just a west London suburb I occassionally drive through.
|
>> That seems like a big number to me..
On its own I suppose it is, in context of how many people die in the UK, it doesn't seem as scary.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 23 Jan 21 at 03:37
|
I had to check, as I’d no idea how many people do die each year. It appears that around 600,000 people die in an average year in the U.K., or 8 Twickenham stadiums full. So COVID-19 seems to have resulted in a 15ish % increase if the deaths reported are all incremental. Interestingly as recently as 2003 the number of deaths was as low as 550,000. But maybe then population has grown by 10% in that time?
www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 23 Jan 21 at 03:37
|
If you put the 90k in a timeline rather than a place, imagining each to be the parent of the next, then we all have approximately 90k ancestors to take you back to the very beginning of humans as we know them, about 300,000 years ago.
I'm not sure whether that makes my brain wibble over how many lives and stories that is, or alternatively how few people that is to get back so far.
|
|
Your 90,000 generations of humans takes you back to less than 0.01% of the time since Earth was formed.
|
|
And that's not an easy thing to say.
|
New UK variant 'may be more deadly'
www.bbc.com/news/health-55768627
Smokie, before you go off on one, please pay attention to the amount of "may be", "could be" doubts and "not sure"s in this article.
|
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673
5 fines.
Weak sauce.
Appears the school's Chief Rabbi died from Covid last year.
The mayor of Hackney, Philip Glanville, said he was "deeply disappointed" that the wedding party had taken place, despite "the number of lives that have already been lost in the Charedi community and across the borough".
He added: "Unfortunately, similar events have taken place even at this venue before and we need to be really clear how unacceptable it is."
School guy: "We had no idea"
School security guard: "It was more like 100"
Wonder what Ofsted will make of it.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 22 Jan 21 at 17:43
|
>>
>> Wonder what Ofsted will make of it.
>>
>>
Rate it Grade 4 (inadequate)? Or will they be talked up to Grade 3 (requires improvement) ?
|
>>School guy: "We had no idea"
>>School security guard: "It was more like 100"
The Met has since revised its estimate of guests at the event down to 150.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673
|
|
I don't think I could accurately say whether a crowd was 150 people or 200 people by looking at it.
|
>> New UK variant 'may be more deadly'
>>
>> www.bbc.com/news/health-55768627
The new variant appears to be around 30% more deadly.
Wow that sounds bad
For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the old variant, 10 of them might be expected to die. But this rises to around 13 with the new variant.
3 more out of a thousand? ah of course, press statistics
|
|
Perhaps 50-60 more per thousand needing hospitalised.
|
>> 3 more out of a thousand? ah of course, press statistics
Exactly. It's almost like the BBC sensationalising something just for the headlines.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 23 Jan 21 at 03:40
|
How would you headline it?
|
>> How would you headline it?
"The fatality rate for the new variant may be slightly higher".
|
|
A 30% increase in mortality is significant, especially when combined with higher transmissibility, and could be accompanied by more serious or protracted illness.
|
|
"This difference is found when looking at everyone testing positive for Covid, but analysing only hospital data has found no increase in the death rate"
|
>> "This difference is found when looking at everyone testing positive for Covid, but analysing only
>> hospital data has found no increase in the death rate"
Which could just mean 30% more get sent to hospital, of which the 'normal' proportion die.
Multiply by say 30% higher transmissibility and all else equal that implies 69% more deaths from this point on than would have been the case with the previous version.
Very speculative but merits very close attention I'd say.
|
|
You are quite right. However, the BBC were aiming for sensationalism, not objective consideration of a possibility.
|
>> A 30% increase in mortality is significant,
A 30% increase on 0.01% isn't
|
>> >> A 30% increase in mortality is significant,
>>
>> A 30% increase on 0.01% isn't
I hope Johnson doesn't think like that.
In terms of your individual absolute increase in risk, no. But 30% more COVID patients in hospital?
|
>> In terms of your individual absolute increase in risk, no. But 30% more COVID patients
>> in hospital?
That. Exactly.
Not much difference in survival chances if you or I as blokes in our sixties get it. Hell of a change if you're charged with treating the ill bit living or dealing with the dead.
|
|
It’s only 30% more patients if the number of people are being infected stays constant. As the R rate drops below 1 that’s not the case...
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 23 Jan 21 at 03:40
|
|
...I think your logic is flawed. If the 30% is correct, then the measures being taken to reduce the R-rate would mean that, without the new variant, (which is also considered to be more infective) the R-rate (and hospitalisations) would be rather lower from the same interventions.
|
>> It’s only 30% more patients if the number of people are being infected stays constant.
>> As the R rate drops below 1 that’s not the case...
Doesn't matter what the R is, it's relative. For a given R, you're (depending whether the observations are a trend) going to et 30% more deaths, and if the hospital death rate is the same that equals 30% more cases. Rather a house of cards of assumptions.
|
It's too soon to judge.
For example, it could be that younger people are infecting their ageing and vulnerable Grandparents because the new variant is easier to pick up and pass on. That could make it appear that the fatality rate had changed.
To understand the fatality rate change, if any, they will need to compare like for like. And that will take time.
|
Could. of course, be that Smokie was right after all, all those weeks ago :-)
Anyway someone has worked out the sensors in the lungs which detect COVID and prompts the over-response from the body.
www.lajollalight.com/news/story/2021-01-18/immune-cop-la-jolla-scientists-identify-the-lungs-sensor-that-detects-covid-19
Interferon is mentioned, of which an inhaled version is a drug which I may have previously mentioned - Synairgen. There are others but that is a UK one and is starting Phase 3 testing, is probably about to be announced as being on the warp program in the US. Few governments have been that interested in therapeutics till now but it's starting to dawn that vaccines may not be the only answer.
|
>> Could. of course, be that Smokie was right after all, all those weeks ago :-)
Don't be ridiculous. Stupid boy, Pike.
|
Sage has said that there is a "Realistic Possibility" that the variant has a higher fatality rate. Turns out that they have a strict chart for which terms to use and "Realistic Possibility" means they estimate there is a 40% to 50% chance that it is true.
You can find the chart here... (along with a whole bunch of very dry information).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955239/NERVTAG_paper_on_variant_of_concern__VOC__B.1.1.7.pdf
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 23 Jan 21 at 13:50
|
Also...
"Professor Peter Horby, who chairs the Government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), tells BBC Breakfast that after a week of looking at the data he and his colleagues came to the conclusion that it was a "realistic possibility".
"There are a number of streams of data that are coming in that suggest there might be a small increase in risk of death," he says.
"If we were not telling people about this we would be accused of covering it up."
However, Professor Horby said "for most people the risk is very, very small".
He added: "The encouraging news is that the UK variant is not affecting how the treatments work and it's not affecting how the vaccines work, so we believe the vaccines and the treatment are just as good against this virus as they've always been.""
|
"Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle says it is still not "absolutely clear" the new variant caused more death.
"There is some evidence, but it is very early evidence. It is small numbers of cases and it is far too early to say this will actually happen," she tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
And Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), agrees with Dr Doyle.
He says it is still too early to be drawing "strong conclusions" based "on a relatively small amount of data".
"I just worry that where we report things pre-emptively where the data are not really particularly strong," he tells BBC Breakfast."
|
>> Could. of course, be that Smokie was right after all, all those weeks ago :-)
>> www.lajollalight.com/news/story/2021-01-18/immune-cop-la-jolla-scientists-identify-the-lungs-sensor-that-detects-covid-19
>>
>> Interferon is mentioned, of which an inhaled version is a drug which I may have
>> previously mentioned - Synairgen. There are others but that is a UK one and is
>> starting Phase 3 testing, is probably about to be announced as being on the warp
>> program in the US. Few governments have been that interested in therapeutics till now but
>> it's starting to dawn that vaccines may not be the only answer.
>>
20th July 2020 and a number of times subsequently.
www.car4play.com/forum/post/index.htm?v=e&t=28074&m=610324
I don't know what it means, but good forecasting
Last edited by: Duncan on Sat 23 Jan 21 at 07:28
|
You may not want to watch this.
I used to live in Manaus. I really enjoyed my time there, but there is no doubt it has a pretty fragile and crap health service at the best of times though as ever in Brazil money matters.
Manaus in fact has not run out of oxygen, though supplies are dangerously low, but the supply chain is typical Brazilian crap. Everything in Brazil is controlled by individuals who expect bribes to do their normal job and doubly so when supply is limited.
My heart goes out to them. It makes the UK's troubles, or Chile's for that matter, seem much less.
www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-55757085
|
It's in the Guardian too:
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/25/dutch-leaders-condemn-criminal-clashes-at-anti-lockdown-protests
However, I only saw it when, prompted by the OP, I navigated to the Europe news page. Didn't hear it mentioned on either the Today Prog or the earlier news on the World Service.
I wonder whether, if I still read the paper version of the Guardian from cover to cover I'd have picked it up?
|
|
I obviously didn't look very hard :)
|
Anyone else with a pet not able to get routine jabs?
I tried today, the vets are only doing emergency stuff.
|
|
It very much depends on your vet, I can and have with mine. Its only "routine" with older adult dogs where previous jabs still have some effect, but its vital with pups.
|
www.bbc.com/news/business-55826646
Anyone on here changing their plans for holidays this year? Will the possibility of having to stay in hotel for 10 days change your mind about going abroad?
|
So far we have a booking for a fortnight on Harris in late May/early June. POstponed from last year. In UK so, unless things change, no need to quarantine on return. Whether the situation in Scotland or on the Western Isles will allow the trip is still an open question I think.
Summer would be caravan in France. We don't usually focus on that until June so will watch developments for now. Could live with self isolating at home but not in a hotel.
|
Makes it very expensive as well especially for families having to pay for a hotel.
We were due away in May last year but rolled out over to Aug this year, UK based so not an issue for us. However I wonder who many families have rolled over their holidays to this year that were due to go to the Med. I guess the policy is early days, but they'll be a lot of unhappy people if they have to add on a few grand in holiday costs or cancel.
|
Quarantine is not a permanent change to foreign travel - it is just a temporary imposition.
The government may be tempted to keep it in place for a few months longer than necessary to help reinvigorate the UK hospitality industry.
But those who have booked and paid for foreign holidays since the pandemic started are just foolish. Either take the risk of losing the money, or just don't book. The world will not fall apart if you don't make it to the Costas this year.
|
"But those who have booked and paid for foreign holidays since the pandemic started are just foolish. Either take the risk of losing the money, or just don't book. The world will not fall apart if you don't make it to the Costas this year."
I've cancelled a March holiday. I took the risk of losing my money, and that was a risk I was prepared to take. I lost some but got most back. Doesn't make me foolish though. I'd have spent more had I gone away. I'm not complaining so no need to fret over my mental capability. :-)
I have a holiday booked (recently) in Edinburgh for August for the Fringe. The apartment is fully refundable in the event it doesn't go ahead..
I've recently changed some of the bookings to a September holiday, and some to to next March. I'd probably lose some money on both of those if they were cancelled but at least they are "in the bag" should I be able to go, and I have the dates, location, accommodation and flights I want and won't be squabbling with a million worriers who hold off booking till they know it's all safe.
|
>> I've recently changed some of the bookings to a September holiday, and some to to
>> next March. I'd probably lose some money on both of those if they were cancelled
>> but at least they are "in the bag" should I be able to go, and
>> I have the dates, location, accommodation and flights I want and won't be squabbling with
>> a million worriers who hold off booking till they know it's all safe.
If I can sort out the dates and get a good deal for Channel crossings I might book those now but I'd pay a bit of a premium to keep the dates flexible. Might even chance a small deposit for a site. If it goes belly up the lovely family who run the site near Le Mont Dore to which I hope to return are welcome to my deposit.
|
|
Since it is illegal to travel abroad for a holiday at the moment the question is rather academic. I rather think that when we are once more allowed to travel to specified countries the quarantine requirement will be relaxed for travellers from those countries.
|
|
Well yes I did mean in the future, obviously not now.
|
And yet there are countless adverts on TV and radio from holiday companies with special deals to US theme parks and the like... or cheap airline tickets.
Mega gamble if you buy in now..
|
>> Mega gamble if you buy in now..
If the price is good and there's a guarantee of a 100% refund.........
|
|
I have put a deposit on a caravan pitch for the last week in April. Woolacombe.
|
|
I've bought a static caravan on the Norfolk coast.
|
|
Anyone who has to quarantine in an hotel after returning from abroad has to do so at their own expense. Fair enough, take a chance and you can't expect the taxpayer to pick up the tab.
|
How many do you smoke a day?
EDIT: maybe, and hopefully, it should be "did"
Last edited by: smokie on Thu 28 Jan 21 at 15:52
|
>> How many do you smoke a day?
>>
>>
10, maximum.
But I don't drink, am not overweight and eat a healthy diet. Many of us have habits that could have consequences on our health and chose to live with the risk. But going abroad when there is every likelyhood you'll face restrictions on return is pushing it.
|
|
If I smoked max 10 a day probably I would never have given up. It was the 60 - 80 Marlboro a day which was so bad for my health.
|
|
From my own observations over the years it is us light smokers who find it hardest to quit. Possibly because we enjoy a smoke more, whereas if you are getting through three or four packs a day you are smoking just out of habit?
|
I'm pretty sure I enjoyed each and every one.
I cannot tell you how hard I found it to give up. I am amazed I succeeded, it almost destroyed me. It took 4 or 5 months before I was over the worst of it and even now, 16, 17 or 18 years later there are still times....
|
There are indeed those times. I'm just over 3 years now. Gave up on the girls 21st in Munich when I had the last one of my Richmond Menthol left in the packet.
I used the mint mouth spray. Gave me chronic hiccups but took my mind off wanting to spark up.
Carrying a bit of extra ballast though.
I believe a cataract and gum issues were the deciding factors and looking at retirement saw £300 a month saving as a massive help in the impact of monthly income reduction.
|
>> I had the last one of my Richmond Menthol left
>> in the packet.
WTF? I would never have started.
|
They are better for you aren't they? :/
|
|
I smoked a pipe until 15-20 years ago. I didn't set a date, but just drifted away from it. I did carry on taking a cuppa in the 'smoking room' in the office as it was an excellent source of information about the job. Got loads of juicy gossip too.
|
>> I'm pretty sure I enjoyed each and every one.
AT the end I was finding I was enjoying them less and less. Made it easier to give up I guess.
|
>> >> I'm pretty sure I enjoyed each and every one.
>>
>> AT the end I was finding I was enjoying them less and less. Made it
>> easier to give up I guess.
>>
For the last year or so I felt increasingly guilty about smoking because of my children.
One Friday night, out of the blue, I announced I'd given up. I have no memory of why.
|
|
The fact that I was in the village pub was probably a factor.
|
We were one of the few places that actually had a 'smoke shed' on site. Indeed a place for social gathering and gossip. I was fairly quickly able to visit without the smoking.
What was evident from those that still partake was that on return they carried the smell with them and even now you do notice if someone has had a cigarette. Did I really smell like that?
Last edited by: Fullchat on Thu 28 Jan 21 at 17:06
|
>> What was evident from those that still partake was that on return they carried the
>> smell with them and even now you do notice if someone has had a cigarette.
>> Did I really smell like that?
Being in a smoking room or a smoky pub certainly made your clothes stink. Less so if you just have one yourself out of doors as they do now.
The smell also never went from a cellular office occupied by a smoker. It had been banned in all offices for several years when a group of us were in a room once occupied by a head of branch notorious for her chain smoking. The computer guys had the carpet up for cabling - as soon as it/its underlay were moved there was a blast of Rothman's best.
Much later, c2002, I worked for a short time in what must have been one of the last offices to permit smoking. Building was the former HQ of GKN and our floor was nearly all cellular offices. Several staff members and the Quango chairman, a former Cabinet Minister who lived on cigs and coffee, all smoked.
They say smell is the sense most given to evoking memories. Walking through the door on a morning took me straight back to being taken into work by my Dad when I was about 5.
At the time I started a move to a newly refurbed block in Chancery Lane was already set. The boss banned smoking and everybody who smoked, including the Chairman, went to the smoking room.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 28 Jan 21 at 17:25
|
>
>> What was evident from those that still partake was that on return they carried the
>> smell with them and even now you do notice if someone has had a cigarette.
>> Did I really smell like that?
>>
As a non smoker you could always tell, by smell, who had just been for a smoke. May as well had a neon light above their head.
Our place is going smoke free this year, so all the smokers areas/shelters are being removed. If you want to smoke you have to go off to an area off site.
|
>> Our place is going smoke free this year, so all the smokers areas/shelters are being
>> removed. If you want to smoke you have to go off to an area off
>> site.
One of the [few] joys of not smoking is never having to worry about smoking restrictions again, even when delivered by sanctimonious, holier than thou, types that really weren't punched enough in their teens.
|
|
I'm not sure it'll actually affect that many people, out of 80-90 in our building, I don't think anyone smokes anymore. Not sure about the rest of the site.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 29 Jan 21 at 10:56
|
>>Did I really smell like that?
I like the smell of someone actually smoking, the smell of someone after they've smoked is pretty bad. Kissing them is utter s***e.
Honestly makes me feel guilty about some non-smoking girlfriends over the years.
|
My main motivation to stop was that a desire to retire early with no income for 6 years wasn't really compatible with £10+ a day on fags.
Anyway, back to the plot... :-)
"But I don't drink, am not overweight and eat a healthy diet. Many of us have habits that could have consequences on our health and chose to live with the risk. But going abroad when there is every likelyhood you'll face restrictions on return is pushing it."
I don't smoke so if necessary I'll have a couple of weeks in a hotel on the taxpayer :-) (In actuality if it were likely to be that bad when we left we wouldn't go in the first place, even though it's booked. You can't legislate for what may happen when you are away, so long as you don't go knowing a ban is just around the corner. And when we came back in Sept we quarantined for the full two weeks, properly, without cheating!!
A hotel sounds a bit pricey but I bet not as expensive as prison or hospital...
And of course, you are right RR and I was teasing but my point was really that people often overlook their own petards by which they may be hoisted!!
|
>>My main motivation to stop was that a desire to retire early with no income for 6 years wasn't really compatible with £10+ a day on fags.
How much is a packet of fags now?
|
I was brought up at a busy sub Post Office and remember the attic being full of cigs, small cigars and boxes of chocolates. I was chatting with my old mum a few nights ago about those days and neither of us knew how much cigs cost today. I thought about £4/5 for a pack of 20. I was very wrong.
I began smoking at Junior School, selling them in the playground, then by the age of 10 I was selling small cigars and lighters. I won a scholarship to a feeder (Thornville) for my local grammar school and continued my endeavours. The masters there soon caught me out and I came very close to expulsion. I stopped smoking aged eleven, discovered cider, beer and girls aged 13/14 and fortunately I’ve never smoked since.
Or drunk cider, after an incident indelibly etched in my memory when I spewed for what seemed like hours and brought up some stomach lining. Very rarely been sick on alcohol since...and only once in the past 30 years after an afternoon pub crawl in the USA mixing very strong beers with tequila shots.
|
Well I'm sure I paid over a tenner for 20 Superkings in the City nearly 6 years ago but Tesco seem to have them from £9.29 upwards. Dunhill Int are £13.30!
www.tesco.com/groceries/en-GB/search?query=cigarettes
|
|
The B&H Superkings are my poison, £9.65 in my local shop.
|
|
When smoking I always seemed to be at the cashpoint. Infrequent visitor now - well very at the moment but you get the gist :)
|
>> When smoking I always seemed to be at the cashpoint. Infrequent visitor now - well
>> very at the moment but you get the gist :)
Same at the pub.....
|
|
Actually a tenner a packet isn't as bad as I thought it'd be. Mind you, I still don't understand how teenagers can afford to smoke.
|
>> Actually a tenner a packet isn't as bad as I thought it'd be. Mind you,
>> I still don't understand how teenagers can afford to smoke.
>>
From my experience working with a fair few people in their late teens /twenties is that they don't smoke or very rarely anyway.
If you mean younger teens at say school, God knows probably nick them from their parents.
|
>> The B&H Superkings are my poison, £9.65 in my local shop.
I can remember all the brands I smoked in my 40 years puffing from the age of 15. In some kind of order.
Sovereign, Players No 10, Players no 6, 555 state express king size, Rothmans King size, Players Navy Cut, and finally 25 years of Marlboro Red. I can picture each of the packets clearly in my mind.
£9.65 - Jezez that would be 20 quid a day for me. £7300 p/a the price of a pretty good second hand car for the missus every year.
When I started 10 sovereign was two bob (10p)
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 29 Jan 21 at 09:19
|
When I started 10 sovereign was two bob (10p) - and a passable second hand car was £75.
Same ratio?
|
60+ years ago - A local newsagent sold single cigarettes to anybody.
They retired & new owner stopped it
|
|
In my schooldays we had Tuesday & Thursday afternoons off, with Saturday morning skool. Myself and a few other reprobates would visit Cider Annies’s shop, part of an old worsted mill in semi open country at Pudsey (Leeds) . She sold us cigs in singles, and alcohol. We were 13/14, in school uniform, never bothered her. They were very happy days I recall...I don’t remember ever getting blind drunk on 2 bottles of beer otherwise I’d never have gotten home, 20 miles on 2 buses.
|
>> When I started 10 sovereign was two bob (10p) - and a passable second hand
>> car was £75.
>>
>> Same ratio?
No, We are comparing different cars. I mentioned a good second hand car, (a 7.5k one) a passible one, (say 2-3k) can be had for far less than 40 fags a day.
I guess one would have to work out the percentage of wages it costs to smoke to make a good comparison.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 29 Jan 21 at 10:40
|
|
And of course your £7300 would have to be earned so it's more like £10k of your salary just to feed your nicotine habit...
Last edited by: smokie on Fri 29 Jan 21 at 10:48
|
Coronavirus - Volume 31 - No FM2R
