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Ongoing discussion
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 14 Oct 22 at 13:08
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It has been a hectic week at work.
We have so many clients in financial meltdown at the moment. We can only advise to limited amounts through fear of becoming shadow directors.
We do know accountants are advising them to cancel all direct debits for leases, rates etc.
Systems wise, over the last couple of nights the bank transferred all non-core services to cloud based services. Core services - actual banking transactions - are kept in house.
Miss Z was on the hospitals first CV19 ward and really liked it. There was a real sense of camaraderie.
She then had a few days off and when she went back she was sent home again so she would be in cycle with her new team. The entire place has been re-configured. She has been switched to ITU. There are now teams consisting off a mixture of grades. All the teams stay together and have the same shift pattern and on the same wards. They don't cross. This is designed to stop cross contamination. The teams have been given names from a popular film to make them memorable.
PPE has improved. It's still not perfect. For example, they have to wash face shields and use them all night when they should be single use only.
There are a lot of people dying. She and her colleagues think the numbers are much higher than are being reported on the news. Paramedics have said that most of the cases they go to at homes seem to be CV related but if they die at home they are not recorded.
Last edited by: zippy on Sat 4 Apr 20 at 00:31
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>> The teams have been given names from a popular film to make them memorable.
>>
...Apocalypse Now, The Terminator......?
( or perhaps "À bout de souffle" ) :-O
The public should be told.
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I’ve finished my quarantine, emptied the small freezer compartment and can’t expect my neighbour to leave small food parcels on my doorstep. No chance of a home delivery in the foreseeable.
I’m going to venture out for a large food shop....are people wearing gloves whilst food shopping? In Spain a few weeks ago you were given a pair of disposable gloves when you entered the supermarket . If so I’ve got some marigolds I found under the sink so could clean them and wear them in the local Coop when buying my food, then wash them in soapy water when I get home.
Is this a course of action I should be taking?
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>> Is this a course of action I should be taking?
Yes, if nothing more than the satisfaction of knowing you went to the supermarket in Marigolds!.
No of course it not required, you dont get issued with gloves in the supermarket. They are however sanitising trolly handles, basket handles, you will be expected to queue outside 2 metres apart and they are only letting in very small number at a time. The staff may be behind screens at the till, and you will be asked to pay electronically, no cash.
Is this the end for cash BTW? its been falling for years but is the real killer? on of the lasting effects of this pandemic?
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Similarly in Spain before I was repatriated. A member of staff ensured you sanitized your hands on entering, then you were given disposable gloves to wear. A one in one out policy, and 2metre spacing outside in the queue.
My cc is contactless so no problems handling cash. I’d better check out the new opening hours and take a rucsac for the booze.
I very rarely drink alcohol at home but needs must
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Very much the same where I am.
Generally we do have enough PPE (although visors are an issue) but the problem is that the recommendation are changing daily which means we tend to have just received boxes of the previous level and then they change! (at the end of this we we have vast quantises of unused kit) so there's a short period while we catch-up.
Very sadly I agree about the numbers... I was in two minds about writing down our figures... especially when I constantly hear on the news and from Govt about the 'silver bullet' of ventilators (please be aware what they are now classing as a vent is not a true vent, we've had two of these delivered by the Army last week and unfortunately they are really not of any true use).. just to say that, so far, unfortunately all of the CV-19 cases who have required a vent have sadly not made it (we not quite at three numbers).
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especially when I constantly hear on the news and from Govt about the
>> 'silver bullet' of ventilators (please be aware what they are now classing as a vent
>> is not a true vent, we've had two of these delivered by the Army last
>> week and unfortunately they are really not of any true use).. just to say that,
>> so far, unfortunately all of the CV-19 cases who have required a vent have sadly
>> not made it (we not quite at three numbers).
>>
Were they the CPAP machines instead?
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No, they were presented to us as vents for use in our ITU and overspill theatre recovery 'ITU'.
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>> No, they were presented to us as vents for use in our ITU and overspill
>> theatre recovery 'ITU'.
>>
>>
Why aren't they of any use?
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>>so far, unfortunately all of the CV-19 cases who have required a vent have sadly not made it
Trying to ask delicately; so does this mean that they don't need the ventilators for very long and so the total amount of ventilators required may be lower than thought earlier?
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>> Trying to ask delicately; so does this mean that they don't need the ventilators for
>> very long and so the total amount of ventilators required may be lower than thought
>> earlier?
There is a time and motion consultant for you. On second thoughts, cancel that, they are not delicate.
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No, I'm not Time & Motion, I'm all about effective and appropriate.
But it's fair to say that i am not delicate.
EDIT: having thought about that, I guess actually I am, but not just time & motion.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 4 Apr 20 at 19:37
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www.spectator.co.uk/article/This-is-no-time-for-gotcha--journalism/amp?__twitter_impression=true
I thought this an interesting article, as watch the 5pm briefings quite a bit it rings true to me.
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Finally at last, someone with some sense has got to the root cause and found the source of this outbreak and fixed it
us.cnn.com/2020/04/03/business/corona-beer-production/index.html
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>> Finally at last, someone with some sense has got to the root cause and found
>> the source of this outbreak and fixed it
>>
It is 5G masts :-)
Mobile phone masts have been torched and engineers abused over "baseless" theories linking coronavirus to 5G.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358
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>>
>> Mobile phone masts have been torched and engineers abused over "baseless" theories linking coronavirus to 5G.
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358
>>
We had two people who came into the shop this morning fully convinced 5G is the cause.
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>> to 5G.
>> We had two people who came into the shop this morning fully convinced 5G is
>> the cause.
>>
I wonder if we have really moved on from burning witches!?
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"I wonder if we have really moved on from burning witches!?"
I'll know when we've really moved on...... we'll start burning journalists.
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>>We had two people who came into the shop this morning fully convinced 5G is the cause.
How truly thick do you have to be........
One theory floating around is that COVID-19 has been around for years in animals and it has used 5G transmissions to transmit itself from animals to humans.
FFS, and these people are often parents.
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>> >>We had two people who came into the shop this morning fully convinced 5G is
>> the cause.
>> How truly thick do you have to be...
Yeah, R.O'R lives in Wales doesn't he?
Jus' sayin'. ;-)))
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>> Yeah, R.O'R lives in Wales doesn't he?
Both people had Scots accents ;-)
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 4 Apr 20 at 21:00
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Then they weren't talking about 5G, they were asking for fudge... ;-)
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>> Mobile phone masts have been torched and engineers abused over "baseless" theories linking coronavirus to
>> 5G.
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-52164358
Cut off all mobile phone signals and internet in Sparkhill, Birmingham and Melling, Merseyside, because clearly they are too thick to have it. In fact if they want to go back to the stone age, fence them off from the rest of humanity.
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Lady two doors up is extremely vulnerable and not allowed out. Her hubby has a brain tumour. We are keeping an eye out and doing shopping, wheeling the bin to the end of the drive etc, popping letters in the post box etc.
Got a knock on the door from her this evening, very upset, she had received a text from the police on her emergency mobile demanding £600 odd for going out during the lock down. Of course she hasn't left our close in 3 weeks.
Reassured her from 2m away that it was a fake and its safe to ignore and walked her back to her place, staying 2 m behind.
Dropped a text to her relatives, who live 10 miles away to reassure them that she is ok.
Shame these crooks are still allowed to breathe!
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YouTube tightens rules after David Icke 5G interview
Yes he is still spouting
YouTube's rules update coincides with new restrictions on WhatsApp.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52198946
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>> YouTube tightens rules after David Icke 5G interview
>> Yes he is still spouting
>>
>> YouTube's rules update coincides with new restrictions on WhatsApp.
>>
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52198946
>>
I didn't even realise that nutjob was still around.
Even more worrying, 65,000 people sat through the 2.5 hour interview, some of whom then called for a world-wide coordinated attack on 5G masts.
He also stated that a future Coronavirus would contain "nanotechnology microchips" so that humans should be controlled and Bill Gates should be jailed.
These people are beyond words.
#justhowthickdoyouhavetobe
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>>
>> He also stated that a future Coronavirus would contain "nanotechnology microchips" so that humans should
>> be controlled and Bill Gates should be jailed.
>>
>> These people are beyond words.
>>
>> #justhowthickdoyouhavetobe
>>
...you've obviously not had your implant yet, then?
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>> ...you've obviously not had your implant yet, then?
If you missed your byte of Icke, start here . www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChS3J893rpI&list=PLH2b9yQWSKRTjcDyGv__tCPbxb8FRyd3s&index=5
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 7 Apr 20 at 17:05
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AIUI, the Professional Footballers Association is saying that their members shouldn't take a 30% pay cut because it would reduce the Tax & NI that they pay and the loss of revenue would hurt the NHS.
www.bbc.com/sport/football/52168692
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>> AIUI, the Professional Footballers Association is saying that their members shouldn't take a 30% pay
>> cut because it would reduce the Tax & NI that they pay and the loss
>> of revenue would hurt the NHS.
>>
>> www.bbc.com/sport/football/52168692
>>
I guess that's one way of looking at it.
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Maybe, but that is suggesting that they are all PAYE which I suspect they are not. I know personal company rules have tightened up but I'd be surprised if they are not mostly paid through their own company, with all the expenses and tax breaks that gives them.
EDIT: And wasn't the point earlier in the week that the players should be furloughed like many of the support staff at the clubs?
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 08:59
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Indeed the idea that they won't take a pay cut because they want to help the NHS is disingenuous. I think they've got their heads up in the clouds on this one.
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>> Maybe, but that is suggesting that they are all PAYE which I suspect they are
>> not.
Indeed they are not PAYE, they are all in effect corporations, so they can charge for image rights and endorsements, and have a "payroll"
The fact that most premier league footballers are money grabbing self obsessed w****bags should come as no surprise to anyone.
Lets hope there will be a fan backlash.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 09:23
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Hear hear!
I really hope that if one thing comes from this is that there is a reality-check on certain parts of life and whether they are truly that important... ultra-high football wages is one of them.
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I hope we can get back to a life when we can once more discuss things that aren’t important and are of no consequence. The football results, the latest film, the excesses of celebrities. At least football stars and celebrities bring some colour to our lives. I’d gladly contribute to their salary if we could only get back to a normal life.
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>> At least football stars and celebrities bring some colour to our
>> lives. I’d gladly contribute to their salary if we could only get back to a
>> normal life.
Norwich? Really?
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snipquote!!!!
>> Norwich? Really?
NFN.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 20:03
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Well Norwich City accustom you to a sense of forthcoming doom
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 15:23
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>> Well Norwich City accustom you to a sense of forthcoming doom
Uncannily prophetic then, of course we all know its a plot to stop them getting relegated.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 18:40
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>> AIUI, the Professional Footballers Association is saying that their members shouldn't take a 30% pay
>> cut because it would reduce the Tax & NI that they pay and the loss
>> of revenue would hurt the NHS.
>>
>>
And if they did take a pay cut, who would benefit? The Glaziers, Roman Abramovich, a few Arab billionaires and a load of hedge funds, not the fans or the NHS.
I'm with the players on this, there are many people in entertainment and other walks of life earning a lot more than Premier League players, but of course "Uneducated working class yobs" make easy targets and popular headlines.
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Sorry it's not just about the money or where it might end up... for me it's about their attitude of 'I have a contract so me me me', they don't 'need' 10's of millions per year to survive on..
Frontline staff like myself are luckily still receiving 100% of our monthly pay while looking after CV-19 cases.... guess what footballers are still getting 100% of their pay for sitting at home! (and it seems many of their club support staff have taken a cut or have been laid-off)
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>> Sorry it's not just about the money or where it might end up... for me
>> it's about their attitude of 'I have a contract so me me me', they don't
>> 'need' 10's of millions per year to survive on..
>>
>> Frontline staff like myself are luckily still receiving 100% of our monthly pay while looking
>> after CV-19 cases.... guess what footballers are still getting 100% of their pay for sitting
>> at home! (and it seems many of their club support staff have taken a cut
>> or have been laid-off)
>>
>>
And which clubs have said they'll use the savings on players wages to pay support staff? None, the money will end up in whichever tax haven the billionaire owners use to their own advantage.
I don't see anyone suggesting that people like Jagger, McCartney, Bono and countless others give up some of their record royalties to help all the jobbing musicians who are earning nothing. Footballers are popular and easy targets.
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> And which clubs have said they'll use the savings on players wages to pay support
>> staff? None, the money will end up in whichever tax haven the billionaire owners use
>> to their own advantage.
Pretty rum situation though if clubs are tapping into government assistance for support staff whilst paying their footballers a full wage, I think most people would agree it's not really what the government fund is for. Yes, I'm sure there are other businesses are doing the same, still not really an excuse or within the spirit of what the government set the fund up for.
>
>>
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I wonder if this crisis will see manufacturing of essential equipment brought back as you cant seem to trust other countries to do the right thing...
Turkey keeps respirators already paid for...
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-turkey-spain-ventilators-medical-equipment-seized-a9447216.html
USA gazumps France...
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/global-battle-coronavirus-equipment-masks-tests
Germany accuses USA of piracy...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52161995
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I can't see that we have had a thread on the Labour leadership so as it's relevant here....
I see the newly elected Labour leader has taken the govt to task over medical supplies and equipment immediately after taking office. I thought they'd agree to work together on this not turn it into a political battlefield.
I can see that the govt seems to have been a bit slow but hindsight is a wonderful thing and it would have been nice to see something less critical and more constructive, at least as his opener.
The article ( www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52169648 )says
"He said he wants to "see the government succeed" in defeating it [the virus], but that, under his leadership, Labour will provide "strong, effective and responsible opposition".
"He added that would not mean "scoring political points or opposing for the sake of opposing", but "challenging the government and asking difficult questions when it is necessary"
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The BBC (and I'm sure they're not alone in media reporting) have filleted the critical bits from a longer and more measured piece in the Sunday Times tinyurl.com/tauajza (paywalled). It includes much that is constructive around the current emergency. It is the job of opposition to hold government to account and mistakes, some of which were foreseeable, have been and perhaps continue to be made.
His criticism is focused on the issues of testing and PPE. On the former the government has been conspicuously unprepared in spite of World Health Organisation guidelines and experience of other countries like S Korea and Singapore who tested quickly and at volume. They were also able to do stuff that would be politically and socially unacceptable here but the government were, at best, slow out of the blocks. The amount of control placed in hands of Public Health England for example looks like it's been a drag.
The promises for the end of this month are both lacking in detail and achievability.
On PPE we've seen enough here from Zippy and Rudedog who have close experience of the mess ups to suggest there is a serious case to answer.
I don't think Starmer has said anything that's not already been said by former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt as chair of the Commons Health Select Committee.
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I think it's difficult to say on PPE issue in a nationwide issue you'll always find gaps in provision. No country can get it spot on everywhere and you'll never hear of the places that aren't having any issues. That said it does seem reasonable to ask if these are isolated examples or not. It does seem it wasn't quite grasped as early as it could have been, as I understand it PPE has been spun out as it's own in the supply lead by army suppliers and a fair bit of kit is now going through Donnington.
The testing issue is interesting, from what I've read PHE insisted that the tests were done and only done at their labs to ensure a uniformity of test and process. However this left out a lot of the NHS capacity, universities, private sector etc. Whether or not it was right at the time I don't know. But it would be pretty brave of Hancock to ignore them, especially as the government said they were going to be guided by science and made this a central pillar of their message.
I expect the legal profession will be kept in work for a long time reviewing every bit of every decision made.
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>> The BBC (and I'm sure they're not alone in media reporting) have filleted the critical
>> bits from a longer and more measured piece in the Sunday Times tinyurl.com/tauajza (paywalled).
Only able to read the first few lines of the Sunday times piece.
Italy has done more tests per million of population than South Korea, but has a higher death rate?
www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
I would have had a lot more respect for Keir Starmer if he had first had a video conference with the PM, and the leading medical people in the country, where he could have put his concerns and received an explanation - satisfactory or otherwise, before leaping into print.
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It would be quite remarkable if the government (or any government of any colour) had made no mistakes - there is no relevant previous experience to base anything on.
Hindsight is a wonderful tool, unfortunately not available when the crisis started. And it is no surprise at all that there were a range of opinions as to the right actions to take - some possibly well informed, other (frankly) plain stupid.
Boris was at pains to rely upon the experts in the field - entirely reasonable as he has no experience of pandemics, viruses, etc. It also meant that if the advice was wrong he could point to the experts and say "that's what they told me to do". Something of a contrast to the brexit debate where he was convinced he was right, despite what the vast majority of informed experts thought. But that's history!
But I completely agree that Starmer should not have made his first intervention a criticism - having said he wanted to be a responsible opposition, supporting the good, opposing the bad. He should have played to the wider national audience, not just his own supporters in the stands.
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Appears that the government is considering banning outdoor exercise if people continue to flout the spirit of only essential journeys.
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>> Appears that the government is considering banning...
I'll let y'all into a wee secret: every time the Govt is "considering" something it means they have already decided to do it.
By making it appear conditional, when they implement the next gross retriction on your freedom they (and the media) can scapegoat all those naughty chavs for forcing the govt to act.
Disingenuous and entirely political.
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>> Disingenuous and entirely political.
And to what end do you think?
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 20:04
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It is in the Governments interest not to have a massive death toll concentrated in a few week for which they will forever blamed. The great dying. Far better to extend the death toll over a longer period. The number of cases and deaths will be much the same, just somehow more acceptable.
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Probably true but definitely somewhat cynical.
It's how you spin 'em...
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>> It is in the Governments interest not to have a massive death toll concentrated in
>> a few week for which they will forever blamed. The great dying. Far better to
>> extend the death toll over a longer period. The number of cases and deaths will
>> be much the same, just somehow more acceptable.
>>
I think the idea is its easier to deal with if they are all spread out rather than more acceptable.
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That as well but they are happy to give the impression that the death toll will be hugely reduced by these measures. It won’t. Granted that the availability of Intensive care may effect survivability for a very small proportion the overall death toll is going to be the same either way.
Arresting people for sitting on an empty beach is futile. It’s just to satisfy the “Something must be done” view.
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>> That as well but they are happy to give the impression that the death toll
>> will be hugely reduced by these measures. It won’t.
Interesting, you think social distancing and all the rest of the measures are primarily window dressing?
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No, they will “flatten the curve” and extend the duration of the epidemic. They won’t reduce the overall death toll in a significant manner.
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Right, I'm slightly confused, you think they are going about this the wrong way or the right way?
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>>They won’t reduce the overall death toll in a significant manner.
Originally Imperial college said that 500,000 would die if nothing was done, whereas 20,000 would die if they took all the measures.
And you think the other 480,000 are going to die from Coronavirus anyway?
Never mind the benefit of future medicine or vaccinations, never mind the better chances of living in an NHS still able to cope, never mind better awareness?
That doesn't seem likely.
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Whether the total death toll estimates are accurate or not nobody knows. The epidemic in the U.K. will only end when the virus has run its course. At that time around 70% of the population will have been effected. It might take six months, it might take two years. The death toll will be roughly the same in either case,
Mass vaccination is highly unlikely to be available in less than eighteen months. An effective drug might be a better bet but highly unlikely anytime soon. The possibility of the NHS not being able to cope with a shorter timescale is the only real reason for the current measures and this need to be understood
Statistically NHS treatment is unlikely to make a huge difference to the death toll. There is no effective treatment they can provide and the numbers saved by ventilating machines is small.
Sooner or later we are going to have to be let out. Sooner or later makes no difference to numbers, just the timing of the deaths.
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>> At that time around 70% of the population will have been effected
Infected*
Unless you think those 480,000 are going to die before a vaccination is available, that none can be saved, then your point is rubbish.
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480,000 is a figure that is just an informed guess. It may or may not be he final figure.
Whatever temporary social distancing measures are put into place the final total of deaths, in the absence of an effective vaccine or drugs, will be about the same.
If you have a logical reason as to why this should not be so please explain.
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>> If you have a logical reason as to why this should not be so please
>> explain.
I think the theory is that a high peak (top of the Sombrero) would overwhelm the NHS and people who had a treatable instance of the disease with good prospect for recovery would die at home for lack of a hospital bed.
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>> I think the theory is that a high peak (top of the Sombrero) would overwhelm
>> the NHS and people who had a treatable instance of the disease with good prospect
>> for recovery would die at home for lack of a hospital bed.
>>
Yes I understand that. In effect though there is no effective treatment and the disease cannot be cured so although there will be some lives saved by nursing statistically the death rate is likely to be unchanged significantly.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 20:04
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>> in the absence of an effective vaccine or drugs,
Ah, so you've already added a condition to your earlier statement. And in fact one of *the* most important conditions.
>>If you have a logical reason as to why this should not be so please explain.
The more deaths we can delay until after a vaccination is available the more that we will in actual fact prevent.
The longer we can spread it out the more that the NHS will be able to effectively care for and thus the less that will die.
It's quite obvious really.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 14:38
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No, if you read my original post I made that clear as did I make the point that neither vaccination nor drugs is likely to be available in time to make a significant difference..
How many the NHS can save in the absence of an effective treatment is a moot point.
How long would you suggest current measures last. Until a vaccine is available?
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>>The longer we can spread it out the more that the NHS will be able to
>>effectively care for and thus the less that will die.
And maybe deal with the increasing backlog of those waiting for elective surgery
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>> Arresting people for sitting on an empty beach is futile. It’s just to satisfy the
>> “Something must be done” view.
>>
But if they are not moved on, many others would probably think it's a good idea and join them and then you would have chaos.
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When we get to the inevitable mass immunisation and the logistics involved the general election struck me as a good way of dealing with it. When we have an election the majority of the adult population attend polling stations in a 15 hour period. Multiply that by seven say and you could immunise a lot of the population in a week.
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Minor flaw: the vaccine would likely take 4-6 weeks to be effective and you have just got all of the most vulnerable members of society to come together for their Coro jabs and contaminate each other.
A bit like how many places do flu jabs ;-)
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There’s nothing inevitable about a vaccine. Common colds are caused by corona viruses and no sign of a vaccine for those despite decades of research. Also likely a vaccine to be less effective in those at most risk i.e over 65
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Again it's how you spin it.
Common colds are not the killer that this apparently is so I suspect there will be a bit more effort to eradicate this.
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A vaccine for the common cold would be a massive money spinner for the Pharma. If it was possible there would be one.
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As I understand there is no one virus involved in causing the common cold. A vaccination against the common cold would need to be effective against more than 200 viruses.
"Possible"? I guess so, but not really practical.
And not anything like the same situation as COVID-19 or whatever it is officially called now.
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Isn't the annual flu jab i get protection against a virus ?
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>> A vaccine for the common cold would be a massive money spinner for the Pharma.
>> If it was possible there would be one.
>>
It maybe a money spinner in the early years but how much do they currently make from recurring sales of cold 'remedies'?
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>> A vaccine for the common cold would be a massive money spinner for the Pharma.
>> If it was possible there would be one.
there is nothing common about a cold. Its just a subset of symptoms.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 5 Apr 20 at 15:13
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No it’s caused by 4 types of Coronavirus which frequently mutate
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>> struck me as a good way of dealing with it. When we have an election
>> the majority of the adult population attend polling stations in a 15 hour period.
No they don't, which why we end up with rubbish governments and councils.
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That nice young Mr Hancock has backed off banning exercise (at least for now), but after consulting with Dominic Cummings (wherever he is), the latter then also consulted the "Nudge Unit" and decided that the message had to be ramped up, and better targeted on those currently failing to observe it.
Thus, instead of "Stay Home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives", the Government's new poster and slogan on Social Distancing is as here:
tinyurl.com/domstayhomemessage
(The link is quite safe)
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....and now, they've upped the ante again:
tinyurl.com/thingsareserious
(Click on the resulting page and "unmute" it)
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Here's a depressing fact;
Pakistan’s prime minister, Imran Khan, stated that “25% of Pakistanis cannot afford to eat two times a day.”
Seemingly Pakistan, and presumably other highly populated yet poor countries, have little chance of effective social distancing or adequate medical supplies.
I cannot imagine the desperation in not being able to protect or provide for your own family. Whatever nationality you are.
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According to Sky News this lunchtime, the Chinese are now treating covid 19 as a foreign threat! - cheeky bu****s!
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>> According to Sky News this lunchtime, the Chinese are now treating covid 19 as a
>> foreign threat! - cheeky bu****s!
It is, all their new cases are from people entering the country.
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CGN has a point, which had also occurred to me.
There is no treatment as such. Ventilation means keeping somebody breathing for longer so that they can recover on their own. That will make a difference because 1/3 to 1/2 of patients ventilated seem to recover. But that is the difference between 500,000 and 250,000, assuming all who need it are ventilated (unlikely) not 500,000 and 20,000.
What would make a difference is bottling up the vulnerable while the virus makes hay which was more or less the plan IIRC. Keep the categories with the high death rates out of the way until there is a degree of herd immunity or better still an effective vaccine has been administered. In theory.
If you define herd immunity as R<1 without special measures, then we probably can't get there without vaccine. But R must come down when/if part of the population has immunity because an infected person will infect fewer others.
Where this has possibly gone wrong is that the early, more theoretical discussions perhaps didn't get into just how many vulnerable people there are. Everybody middle-aged or older these days seem to have a compendium of chronic ailments especially if obesity is included. So the hit on the economy (which does matter in a functional sense, not just an economic one) was probably assumed to be less than it actually would be.
It's a bit dubious to project c. 20,000 deaths if CV-19 is going to be around indefinitely, knocking off tens of thousands per year, which seems possible.
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Good post. But I think 20,000 is pie in the sky given the rapidity with which fatalities are increasing.
At some point the tolerance for continued adherence to "guidance" will become increasingly weak. Younger people with reduced risk, and those who have built up immunity will want life to return to normal. They will not want to perpetuate lockdown for the sake of the "oldies" with the major impacts on education, jobs, income etc.
To maintain isolation etc will ultimately need troops on the streets etc etc. This is not what any government would want. So the question is:
- for how long can lockdown be an effective strategy
- how can it be dismantled, progressively, by age, by tested immunity, by region or town
The only hope on the horizon which could make an early resolution possible are (a) vaccine, or (b) drugs making infection less severe. Time scale for the former is a year+, and for better treatment probably several months.
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>> Good post. But I think 20,000 is pie in the sky given the rapidity with
>> which fatalities are increasing.
Wont be that pie in the sky, 40/50k maybe at worse, 70% of whom would have been a statistic at some time in 2020 anyway.
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>> What would make a difference is bottling up the vulnerable while the virus makes hay
>> which was more or less the plan IIRC. Keep the categories with the high death
>> rates out of the way until there is a degree of herd immunity or better
>> still an effective vaccine has been administered. In theory.
That is the only effective way forward, you cant keep the majority bottled up to save the minority, the country will collapse. Lock the minority away for their own safety.
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I wonder what percentage of the UK is >70yrs with more than one pre-existing condition.
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About 8.6 million over 70. Uk population is about 63 million.
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Have a look at this...
Bear in mind that anything below the main graph is a week old.
informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
It makes you realise how important the infection rate, and therefore the antibodies test, really is.
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The published UK figures have been somewhat opaque ever since cases (you mean positive tests - with the testing basis varying and being on a different scale to elsewhere) and deaths (you mean deaths in hospital only, and with the attribution to Covid-19 being on a different basis to other countries) were about the only figures bandied around.
In justification or otherwise of the strategy, I've always wanted rather more information on ICU/critical care occupancy/practice outcomes/demographics etc. in order to better understand things.
I found just such today, and though it isn't exhaustive (and, like all statistics, is open to interpretation) it is quite detailed and I found that detail quite enlightening. It confirmed some things I suspected, and gave insight into others I couldn't even guess at.
www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b
Note: it is a PDF download containing UK critical care info for Covid-19. It is not a webpage link. If you do download it, you might find yourself taking some time to read it, though it is only 16 pages.
Last edited by: tyrednemotional on Mon 6 Apr 20 at 14:47
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>> I found just such today, and though it isn't exhaustive (and, like all statistics, is
>> open to interpretation) it is quite detailed and I found that detail quite enlightening. It
>> confirmed some things I suspected, and gave insight into others I couldn't even guess at.
>>
>> www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b
I was intrigued by the 'APACHE II' evaluation.
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...adequately described in brief here:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APACHE_II
(Alternatively, of course, it might simply be a score of how quickly you can circle the wagons - Z would no doubt score highly)
Given that the most critical score is the highest (and at 71 this probably means DOA ;-) ) the scores in the statistics don't seem particularly high, yet a mean of 16.3 seems to require respiratory support.
Last edited by: tyrednemotional on Mon 6 Apr 20 at 16:24
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I cannot imagine that was a decision taken lightly.
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Certainly to release it to the media
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You could hardly keep the hospitalisation of the prime minister a secret. Not likely to be fully fit for a couple of weeks at least I would think.
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>> You could hardly keep the hospitalisation of the prime minister a secret. Not likely to
>> be fully fit for a couple of weeks at least I would think.
No great loss TBH, he's not running the country at the moment
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I guess Raab is at the helm. Could be worse. I watched Trump’s incoherent rambling last night. Makes Johnson look like an intellectual giant.
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There is no "routine test" I can think of that would require a night in hospital.
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>> There is no "routine test" I can think of that would require a night in
>> hospital.
Some discussion here of possible issues:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/johnsons-hospital-admission-suggests-virus-may-have-progressed
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>> >> There is no "routine test" I can think of that would require a night
>> in
>> >> hospital.
>>
>> Some discussion here of possible issues:
>>
>> www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/johnsons-hospital-admission-suggests-virus-may-have-progressed
Early guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) suggest the following symptoms may help a doctor to decide whether a patient with Covid-19 should go to hospital:
Severe shortness of breath at rest or difficulty breathing.
Coughing up blood.
Blue lips or face.
Feeling cold and clammy with pale or mottled skin.
Collapse or fainting (syncope).
New confusion.
Becoming difficult to rouse.
Thats normal Boris.
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"Thats normal Boris."
Yeah - that's what they said about Keith Richards after he'd damaged his head falling out of a tree in 2006.
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Boris now in intensive care.
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Sort of hits home how bad this virus is when a big public figure gets it.
Last edited by: mazda chris on Mon 6 Apr 20 at 20:36
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Doc said
There is no "routine test" I can think of that would require a night in hospital.
No 10 gave us BS.
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Yes, that's what really matters at this moment.
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"No 10 gave us BS."
They probably gave him the sort of tests that anyone would be given if they were admitted to hospital with covid-19 ......... could that be why they are called 'routine'. Doh!
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I do hope Boris Johnson comes through this ok. I was beginning to have reasonable expectations of him as a leader.
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I guess the whole cabinet should have started 14 days self isolating, if they aren't, as soon as Boris and Hancock announced they had it. I'm pretty sure the Cabinet were meeting face to face till in the run up to that day.
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>> I guess the whole cabinet should have started 14 days self isolating, if they aren't,
>> as soon as Boris and Hancock announced they had it. I'm pretty sure the Cabinet
>> were meeting face to face till in the run up to that day.
>>
If most of the cabinet get it, then yes thats valid. So far they haven't. There is something genetic about this virus we are missing information on, Clearly for some its effects are very serious, clearly for some its ferociously contagious, What is and why the "some"?
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"There is something genetic about this virus we are missing information on, Clearly for some its effects are very serious, clearly for some its ferociously contagious, What is and why the "some"?"
Well observed, Zeddo, go to the top of the class. We are now impinging on pure Darwinian biology!
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>> "There is something genetic about this virus we are missing information on, Clearly for some
>> its effects are very serious, clearly for some its ferociously contagious, What is and why
>> the "some"?"
>>
>> Well observed, Zeddo, go to the top of the class. We are now impinging on
>> pure Darwinian biology!
Well we best not let this inferior species dilute the purity of our gene pool then, do nothing, let them die, Lets call this inferior race Borisoidus Brexiteerus
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 7 Apr 20 at 09:48
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You mean genetic about the virus or it’s victims? The variability in the disease is I would think is likely due to various factors
The general health of the patient
Variations in individuals immune systems. Known to deteriorate with age.
The viral loading. How much virus you take on board. Probably the reason why the medical profession seem to be more badly affected.
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>> You mean genetic about the virus or it’s victims?
Victims
>>
>> The general health of the patient
Is that true for your chances of catching it, not known, onlty for your chances of not recovering if you do.
>> Variations in individuals immune systems. Known to deteriorate with age.
Babies, young people, middle age people, fit healthy young tigers, get it. Some seriously enought to die.
>> The viral loading. How much virus you take on board. Probably the reason why the
>> medical profession seem to be more badly affected.
True, but Boris fits none of your target causal categories
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Boris could well fit into all those categories.
He is not necessarily the fittest person in the world.
Some peoples immune systems are more effective than others and react in different ways. In corona virus fatalities it is your own immune system that effectively kills you in a massive over reaction.
He may well have been exposed to the virus for a long period both from his colleagues and his partner
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>> Boris could well fit into all those categories.
>>
>> He is not necessarily the fittest person in the world.
The fact that he's overweight and fond of his (junk?) food has been highlighted in some reports. High office will have reduced his opportunity to run or cycle and, unless he sets time aside for it, being PM isn't likely to be conducive to gym sessions.
A friend of his was on the Today programme (or was it 5 Live?) trying to say he was fit, whupped people at tennis etc but I had strong impression of a man whistling in the dark.
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>> He may well have been exposed to the virus for a long period both from
>> his colleagues and his partner
And so we spin round to the start of this discussion, few of the cabinet have symptoms.
In truth you rebutted none of my points accept confirm its a matter of genetics.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 7 Apr 20 at 11:08
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He may well have been exposed to the virus for a long period both from
>> his colleagues and his partner
And so we spin round to the start of this discussion, few of the cabinet have symptoms.
Well I assume they haven't all been sharing a bed with Carrie Symonds.
Look we all respond differently to diseases and for many reasons, physical, environmental our ages and how much our bodies have deteriorated yes our own genetic makeup. Some of us have better immune systems than others. Obviously a genetic component to that there but its also going to difference as to what diseases we have been exposed to in the past.
The reasons why some are affected and others are not is going to be complex and varied. It is highly unlikely to come down to one cause, genetic or otherwise.
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Peoples genetics don't change as the age yet old age is a huge factor for severe disease.
I know a practice where all of the GPs have tested positive and were all symptomatic.
I expect there is a modest impact from genetics but I suspect luck, age, how much lung you can afford to lose, and gender play a bigger role.
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Lygonos will clarify no doubt with his years of experience, the two juniors telling us about Miss Z commented that it is unlikely the Boris will be taking up space in the ITU without being intubated!?
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>>unlikely the Boris will be taking up space in the ITU without being intubated!?
Not necessarily - there is support below the level of intubation that can be provided, such as high flow oxygen via rebreather bags.
This is an interesting (and a tad graphic) account of a Covid-19 infection with so-called cytokine storm (where the immune system goes mental fighting the virus causing it's own complications)
It is by an American respiratory specialist ("pulmonologist") who is now at home recuperating.
www.salon.com/2020/04/05/what-it-feels-like-to-survive-covid-19s-dreaded-cytokine-storm/
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>
>> Not necessarily - there is support below the level of intubation that can be provided,
>> such as high flow oxygen via rebreather bags.
And its also about staffing levels training and experience, monitoring regimes, equipment availability, stuff you wont find on an ordinary recovery ward.
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Tiger at US zoo tests positive for coronavirus
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586
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>> Tiger at US zoo tests positive for coronavirus
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52177586
Cats are prone to flu type virus's.
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There's a Facebook Group called "Silent City". Started by some people I know it is for posting photographs of empty cities, around the world, but mostly UK.
I think most of you will find some local interest there. In particular some lovely photographs of Cambridge.
It's members only, but membership is freely given.
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‘Silent City’. Thanks for that....I just looked and 2 of the first 3 ‘cities’ featured were Kilmarnock & Hartlepool. Made me smile
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New Jersey's Governor, Phil Murphy is appealing for Cobalt (sic) capable programmers to volunteer to help speed up their 40 year old mainframes to cope with the 1600% increase in applications for unemployment benefits.
Good luck with that Phil.
Anyone here want to try their hand at squeezing the last CPU cycle out of museum pieces running applications with long-lost source code?
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Not even possible and fraught with risk in even trying, I'd have thought.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 6 Apr 20 at 00:20
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That really is a case of let sleeping dogs lie.
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>>
>> Anyone here want to try their hand at squeezing the last CPU cycle out of
>> museum pieces running applications with long-lost source code?
>>
...built my early career on exactly that (with the exception of the long-lost bit, of course).
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Miss Z has tested positive for CV19. She is not feeling at all well but hasn't gone to hospital.
She is at her flat with 2 other junior doctors. Both now self isolating that's 3 doctors out of the system and about 300 staff at the hospital are already self isolating.
They think if she gets any worse she will need to go in. Would you believe that they don't have a thermometer in the flat!
I wanted to jump in the car to visit but the other flatmates have banned us as Mrs Z has an auto-immune deficiency and I have asthma.
Mrs Z and I are worried sick. If only the idiots at the top provided proper PPE when it was needed.
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>>Mrs Z and I are worried sick
Absolutely understand that - I'm sure you also understand why visiting her would be a potentially Darwinian idea.
What a horrid illness.
Was looking at figures where we know there are lots and lots of tests being done (South Korea) where they have a mortality rate around 1%.
UK mortality figures are about 10% which suggests to me we're about an order of magnitude out for UK cases - it's likely to be >500,000 rather than the 50 thou officially diagnosed, and rising by c.50,000 per day at present.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 6 Apr 20 at 23:57
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>>Was looking at figures where we know there are lots and lots of tests being done (South Korea) where they have a mortality rate around 1%.
South Korea (461,233) has done almost double the number of tests that UK (252,958) has done, for a population about 20% smaller. 8,996 per million as opposed to 3,726 per million.
South Korea has 1/5th of the cases (50k vs 10k) yet 1/30th of the deaths (186 vs 5,373
And Korea has a higher average age, though only by about 10%. (43 vs 29).
So, a difference to be sure, but not sufficient to simply explain 1%* vs 10%.
That said, I totally agree with your main point; the virus has almost been through a much larger proportion of the population than we can show at the moment and spreading fast.
All seems to have gone a bit quiet on the antibody test. Or did I just miss it?
* I think the mortality rate is closer to 2%.
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>> All seems to have gone a bit quiet on the antibody test. Or did I
>> just miss it?
It seems that they are not reliable enough at the moment.
www.ft.com/content/f28e26a0-bf64-4fac-acfb-b3a618ca659d
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If I understand correctly then, the antibody test itself is a valid test, it is accurate test kits to perform that test with that they are struggling with.
Thank goodness the 17m kits was only a statement of intent if they worked, not an actual order.
I see a doctor in the US has stated that the amount of antibodies generated is linked to the severity of the symptoms/virus suffered. I shouldn't think that bodes well for future immunity, never mind the difficulty with testing.
China has reported 90,000 cases. Wuhan has a population of 11m. The virus was running free in Wuhan for at least a month.
I guess it is possible that China is simply lying through it's teeth. But even if the real figure in Wuhan is actually 10x what is quoted for China that still means less than 10% of it's population are known to have / have had the virus.
So;
1) China is lying through it's teeth to an enormous magnitude (I don't think that magnitude of a lie is possible in this day and age)
2) Far more people have / have had the disease than we realise but from some reason mostly so mildly that nobody knows.
3) For some reason many people do not contract the virus.
I suppose 2) is the most likely, but still....
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>> So;
>>
>> 1) China is lying through it's teeth to an enormous magnitude (I don't think that
>> magnitude of a lie is possible in this day and age)
>>
>> 2) Far more people have / have had the disease than we realise but from
>> some reason mostly so mildly that nobody knows.
>>
>> 3) For some reason many people do not contract the virus.
>>
>> I suppose 2) is the most likely, but still....
Seasonal flu is said to have an R0 of c. 1.5, COVID-19 between 2 and 3. R0 for flu presumably reflects not just the basic infectiousness of the virus but also the level of immunity present in the subject populations, that have a level of vaccination and resistance conferred by previous infections.
If COVID-19 comes out at 2-3 despite a substantial proportion having natural immunity, the basic transmissibility may well be materially higher. I suspect there are just not enough reliable data points for anybody to be definitive.
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>> I'm sure you also understand why visiting her would be a
>> potentially Darwinian idea.
>>
Yes and confirmed by Miss Z and Mr A one of her flatmates.
Still, parental instinct is very hard to fight against.
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Sorry to hear about your daughter, Zippy. The fact that you've kept us updated about her work makes it all the more potent.
My youngest daughter and family in London seem to have had the virus. That's a couple in late thirties with two small boys. My SIL was working in Australia when the boys had sore throats and my daughter developed it. When SIL returned he got a stronger dose - did he get from the others, bring it from OZ or catch it on the plane? They seem. however, to have had a fairly mild dose.
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Hoping she gets over it quickly Zippy.
I've now heard of three in my broader family, including nephew's wife who is a GP, have had it and none have been serious, thankfully. My daughter probably had it two weeks ago but if so it was v mild (though her symptoms were apparently worse than she let on to us).
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>>>Mrs Z and I are worried sick
I cannot even begin to imagine how you must feel. I sincerely hope this passes without getting worse.
All the very best to you all.
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"The research also found that if interventions in the country could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively "
If accurate, that is pretty damning.
www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.page
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>>"The research also found that if interventions in the country could have been conducted one
>> week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent,
>> 86 percent and 95 percent respectively "
>>
>> If accurate, that is pretty damning.
>>
>> www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.page
>>
Southampton is the alma mater for the entire flat and Dr A has a keen interest in epidemiology and is following their research very closely. It is considered to be some of the best in the country.
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I noticed recently that some US Attorney had announced he was representing half a gazillion people and was intending to sue China.
At the time that annoyed me, but reading that study does shine rather a different light. If only it could be done without making some American lawyer rich.
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As for Southampton University my involvement with them has been superficial; but a few years ago (2015?) I funded and then arranged for my kind-of-step-niece-in-law to study at Southampton.
I found them to be the most caring, efficiently, conscientious and helpful professional organisation. And not just the admin staff, I had cause to speak to a couple of her lecturers also.
A thoroughly impressive bunch.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 7 Apr 20 at 01:30
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>>A thoroughly impressive bunch.
I would agree. There were a couple of late night emergencies where admin, security and pastoral staff were very good including an attempted suicide (blood painted walls) and reasonably violent fire.
I have also been told good things about the lecturers and tutors.
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>> If accurate, that is pretty damning.
>>
>> www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.page
If If IF! Three weeks earlier? this is real pie in the sky stuff. You cat start three weeks earlier, because you dont have the data to indicate its needed. A: because the sample size is not big enough then and B: because you are not looking for it because you don't know its a problem.
Its ridiculous academic based foresight. Mere figures not practicality.
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>> Its ridiculous academic based foresight. Mere figures not practicality.
And the question, again, is where would you go from there - economy at a standstill, still no treatment, no vaccine. But there would be more time to build PPE stocks, bed capacity etc.
We still don't have an exit strategy except gradually to infect the less vulnerable and bottle up the old and crocked.
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>>Its ridiculous academic based foresight. Mere figures not practicality.
Well it's hindsight rather than foresight but it is certainly academic based. What else could it be?
I really don't see what's ridiculous about it.
The study starts it's conclusion with "if it could have been [earlier] then..." which is pretty much what we need to know. It's not slinging rocks.
Surely the goal is *always* to understand what could have been done better, and then to work out why that wasn't done.
If that is simply that it couldn't have been foreseen, then the learnings are limited. If instead it turns out that their were negligent or even simply mistaken delays, then that must be learned from. Worse still, of course, if it was a chosen course of action by the State.
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Considering cases apparently double every 5 days or so, it's not rocket science that every week you wait to apply restrictions, there are 2-3 times more cases to deal with than the previous week.
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They are lifting the Quarantine in one of the comunas (boroughs) here. Nobody seems sure why, I should think a politician or rich person lives in the area and finds it inconvenient.
This having selected comunas with quarantine is like only allowing peeing in some parts of the swimming pool.
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"They are lifting the Quarantine in one of the comunas (boroughs) here. "
Can you please contact the BBC and suggest that Laura Kuenssberg be appointed a foreign correspondent and sent out immediately as there are events that she ought to be reporting? (and keep her there 'til it's all over)
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Coronavirus - Volume 11 - zippy
