Non-motoring > Brexit Discussion - Volume 65   [Read only] Miscellaneous
Thread Author: R.P. Replies: 105

 Brexit Discussion - Volume 65 - R.P.

***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 66 *****

IMPORTANT - PLEASE READ

Before discussions start in this thread, I would like to point out that any petty arguments, personal attacks, or any other infringement of house rules, etc. will be deleted where we feel fit from now on. It seems that discussion about Brexit brings out the worst in some people.

We will not give notice that we have deleted anything. Nor will we enter into discussion why something was deleted. That will also be deleted. The select few who are unable to have a reasonable discussion, cannot contain their anger, be keyboard warriors, trolls, etc. should not be allowed to spoil the enjoyment for others.

Also bear in mind that genuine posts 'may' well end up also getting deleted. I apologise in advance for this, but we simply do not have the time to pick through and be selective with anything we delete. If your reply is tagged onto an argument, etc. then due to the nature of the forum software, chances are it will also vanish.

Finally, if it becomes too time consuming to moderate these threads, then we might ask that Brexit discussion stop altogether.

Be nice, Play nice, and control your temper.

Your co-operation would be appreciated.

Dave.

578997
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 15 Nov 18 at 02:12
       
 Brexit Discussion - Volume 64 - movilogo
'A Farage in every country': Barnier warns of existential threat to EU
Brexit negotiator urges pro-EU forces to defend the fragile union against populist forces

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/08/michel-barnier-warns-of-existential-threat-to-eu-nigel-farage
       
 Brexit Discussion - Volume 64 - Bromptonaut
>> 'A Farage in every country': Barnier warns of existential threat to EU
>> Brexit negotiator urges pro-EU forces to defend the fragile union against populist forces
>>
>> www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/08/michel-barnier-warns-of-existential-threat-to-eu-nigel-farage

The irony of that article and an address to the European People's Party is probably lost on some here.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - rtj70
Seems Raab didn't know how important Dover-Calais was for trade.... So he was basically and still is stupid and incompetent? Then again so are most/all of the Government.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46142188
Last edited by: rtj70 on Thu 8 Nov 18 at 20:09
      1  
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Bromptonaut
>> Seems Raab didn't know how important Dover-Calais was for trade.... So he was basically and
>> still is stupid and incompetent? Then again so are most/all of the Government.
>>
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46142188

Mrs B just drew my attention to same story from another source. Beggars belief. Has he never used a ferry from Dover or Calais?

You only need to sit in your car at the assembly area of either port and watch disembarkation....
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 8 Nov 18 at 20:25
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - rtj70
It beggars belief... How can he not know how important the port is. And also the Chunnel too I guess.

But he's not any better than his predecessor. I am not allowed to say anything about common sense or real world intelligence though. But I'm not sure how much they have of either. They seem to live in a vacuum.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Bromptonaut
>> I am not allowed to say anything
>> about common sense or real world intelligence though.

I think you are but perhaps mods prefer it if you to stick to folks in public life rather than members of this forum.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - sooty123
I read his comments a bit differently, it's seems a bit more subtle than he didn't know it was important but was learning on the job about its level of importance. Two different things.


Reading the article I'm surprised that it was only ninth in tonnage by port in the UK.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - rtj70
I've known of the importance of Dover since I was a youngster. You don't need to learn on the job!
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - sooty123
Perhaps a difference too subtle for some.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Bromptonaut
>> Reading the article I'm surprised that it was only ninth in tonnage by port in
>> the UK.

If you look at tonnage, ie the heavy stuff like cars and consumer goods, then it's likely Felixstowe, Immingham, Avonmouth etc are up the league table.

Time critical stuff like lettuce, tomatoes or even a shift's worth of engines for MINI at Cowley weigh less. But delay them for a few hours and shelves are empty and production lines stopped.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - rtj70
My Skoda Superb went to Grimsby I think (somewhere near there). So heavy stuff like cars certainly to/from that side of the country.

But where do car components go?

And VW ship engines and Bentley car bodies to the UK and then take back leather and wood works to assemble Bentley's in Germany.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Bromptonaut
Mixing comments from other forums:

In fairness, understanding that as an island we reply quite heavily on ships bringing stuff in and taking stuff out is quite a complicated thing to get your head round.

Can we delay Brexit while cabinet members study year 8 geography?
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 8 Nov 18 at 20:57
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - rtj70
>> Can we delay Brexit while cabinet members study year 8 geography?

They could have done that over the summer recess!
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - sooty123
I get that time critical stuff but I can't say I studied the league table of uk ports by tonnage. ;)
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - CGNorwich
Jo Johnson, Transport Minister has just resigned. He wants a referendum on the proposed deal.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - smokie
I'd not realised there was another of the Johnson clan in Government. He was a Remainer.

Not very loyal are they?
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Clk Sec
I knew he was a MP, but didn't know that he was a minister.

You learn something every day in here!
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Zero
The BoJo brothers would stab you in the back while kissing your cheek.


Only one cheek I want any of those two kissing.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Rudedog
He's my MP :(
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Zero
We blame you then, you voted him in
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Rudedog
Yeah, right!

Wrong colour for me.. politically that is!
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Cliff Pope
But he represents all his constituents equally - at least that's the theory.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Roger.
A Right Wing view.

Blood pressure alert for some of you!

www.conservativewoman.co.uk/tcw-readers-would-risk-corbyn-to-get-rid-of-may/
Last edited by: Roger. on Sat 10 Nov 18 at 13:43
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - movilogo
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-referendum-jeremy-cobyn-labour-party-eu-leave-remain-a8626871.html

So, half of Labout is pro-Brexit and half are anti. Even more chance of pro and anti Brexit parties in near future by splitting from Labour and Conservative.

       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Cliff Pope
I don't think so. Brexit isn't the most important issue in the world, despite current appearances.

On that argument you'd have expected a split in the late 30s into pro- and anti- appeasement parties. Ten years later it was back to party politics as usual.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Bromptonaut
>> So, half of Labout is pro-Brexit and half are anti. Even more chance of pro
>> and anti Brexit parties in near future by splitting from Labour and Conservative.

Although the article refers to a Labour party divided into two the full text doesn't justify your assertion that half are 'pro-brexit'.

Members of the party are, being mostly younger people, heavily pro remain.

Amongst Labour MPs there are probably a dozen or so like Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer who are openly and avowedly pro-Brexit and were during the referendum.

There's another cohort, probably including both Corbyn and John McDonnell, who dislike the EU in it's current form as too tied to capitalism, neo-liberal economics and big business.

Other MPs and Labour members in Lords who are mainly remain are struggling in various ways. Some because, while they think Brexit is wrong and will be a disaster, they feel it's a disaster with a democratic mandate they cannot ignore. Others have an issue around democracy and mandates as they're representing seats in areas that voted heavily for Brexit.

The next few weeks are potentially going to see the greatest political drama of my lifetime. Last comparable event was probably 1940 when Chamberlain was forced from office.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Sun 11 Nov 18 at 11:17
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Cliff Pope
>>
>> The next few weeks are potentially going to see the greatest political drama of my
>> lifetime. Last comparable event was probably 1940 when Chamberlain was forced from office.
>>

I somehow thought you were younger than that - still cycling though :)


Of course 1940 was a comparable disaster too, theoretically. Britain alone hadn't a hope of stopping Germany, and was walking proudly into humiliating defeat. The vote for defiance was a pure triumph of sentiment and emotion over all reasonable logic. And yet .....

Last edited by: Cliff Pope on Sun 11 Nov 18 at 11:27
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - CGNorwich
The most ridiculous analogy for Brexit I have read to date.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Bromptonaut
>> The most ridiculous analogy for Brexit I have read to date.

The analogy is purely Cliff's. My point was about possibility of a government with a working majority being subject to a cross party rebellion on a massive scale.

The vote to join in October 1971 was perhaps almost comparable. My Father ran a business importing chemicals for the textile industry from France. He was very worried about future if UK did not join.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - CGNorwich
Yes I was referring to Cliff's overblown comparison. The next couple of weeks will be very interesting and I have no idea how they will pan out but if forced to guess I think Mrs May will manage to get her agreement through parliament but it will be a very rough ride. At the end of the day we are looking at TINA.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Duncan
TINA?

There In Name Alone?

There Is No Answer?

Dunno. Give up.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - CGNorwich
There Is No Alternative


One of Margaret Thatcher's phrases
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Roger.
I stand by my campaigning and voting, for Leave.
I am not happy with Mrs. May's behaviour, of course and neither are many, many, Conservative Associations across the country.
The emotive and pejorative language used by the media, particularly the broadcast media, describing a No Deal scenario as "crashing out" is deeply wrong and unhelpful.
If we leave without a deal we can leave as an independent Nation State, observing the WTO rules for international trade. Most of the World does this as far as I know.
It also leaves free to negotiate good deals with the majority of the world which is not in the sclerotic EU.
I have no problem in our becoming a low tax economy designed to attract inward investment. That is not demeaning in the slightest: just good business sense.
Project Fear is rearing its ugly Hydra head in earnest once again. Most of its dire predictions have been shown to be baseless nonsense.
If we, as a country, suffer a period of financial hardship (not that likely, I think) I consider from my perspective, that it is a hardship I will be OK to share.
Knowing how emotive this subject is I will not respond to comments on this post, not out of embarrassment in stating my position, but more that I do not want this to descend into mutual vituperation.
Make of it what you will, ;-)
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Zero

>> If we leave without a deal we can leave as an independent Nation State, observing
>> the WTO rules for international trade. Most of the World does this as far as
>> I know.

And there is the problem, What you know! The rest of the world do not rely on WTO rules, they are punitive. The rest of the world with good economies have deals. Deals that take many years to iron out.


>> If we, as a country, suffer a period of financial hardship (not that likely, I
>> think) I consider from my perspective, that it is a hardship I will be OK
>> to share.


And there is the problem , you DO NOT have the right to share that hardship with me at your whim.

That, this below

>>Knowing how emotive this subject is I will not respond to comments on this post,

And your avowed racism.

Is why I give you as much respect as I would for dog poo on the pavement.

       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - zippy
>>I have no problem in our becoming a low tax economy designed to attract inward investment. That is not demeaning in the slightest: just good business sense.

I help look after a portfolio of businesses for a B2B funder and can tell you that 90%+ feel that being in the single market is better than having low taxes.

No point having low taxes if there is no profit to levy the tax on!
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - zippy
And this lot are specifically blaming Brexit. Hey, what to a billion pound company know?


www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-6375995/Billion-pound-health-giant-moves-low-tax-Ireland-blames-Brexit.html

       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Dutchie
As a country we have to suffer a financial hardship Roger?

You are getting on a bit so am I.How much more hardship do you want working people to have on top of everything else what is happening at the moment.

If we talk about independence the whole of Europe has no foreign policy it is vassal state linked to the U.S.A.Britain leaving won't make a jot of difference to that situation.Independent Nation State is a pipedream Roger.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Bromptonaut
>> If we, as a country, suffer a period of financial hardship (not that likely, I
>> think) I consider from my perspective, that it is a hardship I will be OK
>> to share.

That's fine for you chum. You're 80+ and even if post Brexit crash stuffs your private pension the govt will stump up all but £250 a week in Pension Credit for you and Deidre to live on. And you'll get your Council Tax paid in full (and your rent if you're in Social Housing).

A younger couple rendered jobless by Brexit get £115 to live on, as little as 50% of their Council Tax paid and are subject to the 'bedroom tax'.

And while you'll be 'brown bread' in 20 years time that couple will still be living with consequences of your selfishness.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Cliff Pope
>> Yes I was referring to Cliff's overblown comparison.
>>

I was picking up Bromptonaut's comparison as an event of potentially comparable political drama, and adding that Brexit too has the potential for disaster. I don't think anyone would dispute that we stood on a knife-edge in 1940, and arguably with similar lack of weighty logic?

An application of a similar analogy that did end in disaster was Suez. Eden was convinced tht this was another test of appeasement, and that Nasser was a threat that must be resisted with military action as in 1940.

Historical analogies are often liable to fail, but some similarities remain, as Bromptonaut observed.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - movilogo
A true financial hardship is about not having enough money to pay for food, clothes or shelter. Such kind of hardship only exists in poor countries in Asia, Africa etc.

In democracy it is not always possible please everyone. So what majority wants minority has to accept it.

If you can't accept, then you are free to exercise your freedom of movement right and relocate to a country inside EU where you think your life would be better.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Zero
>> A true financial hardship is about not having enough money to pay for food, clothes
>> or shelter. Such kind of hardship only exists in poor countries in Asia, Africa etc.
>>
>> In democracy it is not always possible please everyone. So what majority wants minority has
>> to accept it.
>>
>> If you can't accept, then you are free to exercise your freedom of movement right
>> and relocate to a country inside EU where you think your life would be better.

I find that particularly hard to swallow from an economic migrant. Who the hell do you think you are to emigrate to another country and tell the incumbents to leave? You do realise the EU leave vote was about immigrants dont you?
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 11 Nov 18 at 18:59
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - No FM2R
>>You do realise the EU leave vote was about immigrants dont you?

If you recall that was one of his specific goals; to make everybody go through the steps he had to. Revenge or bitterness?
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - zippy
>>You do realise the EU leave vote was about immigrants dont you?

As I understand it, from an opinion poll taken around the time of the referendum, many long resident first generation immigrants intended to or actually voted leave on immigration grounds.


       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Cliff Pope

>> As I understand it, from an opinion poll taken around the time of the referendum,
>> many long resident first generation immigrants intended to or actually voted leave on immigration grounds.
>>

That's often the case. Newcomers, and new converts to something, are very often the most fervent. Long-timers have a more relaxed tolerance.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - movilogo
>> You do realise the EU leave vote was about immigrants dont you?

Yes I do. Ending FOM was possibly the biggest driver behind Brexit.

Today I made a joke about you leaving the country and you are upset. Imagine the situation when unlimited immigration changes the demographics of UK (which it did in some parts already) and you (or your next generation) would be forced to relocate.

My point was that if you indeed value FOM then possibly you can exercise this (it is likely to be active at least for next few years) if you feel UK is going to be far worse place. Since you are not doing it you either [1] don't value this freedom that much [2] don't believe post Brexit UK would be that bad.

       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - No FM2R
> unlimited immigration changes the demographics of UK

You do realise how you could do your little bit to prevent that?
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Zero
>> >> You do realise the EU leave vote was about immigrants dont you?
>>
>> Yes I do. Ending FOM was possibly the biggest driver behind Brexit.
>>
>> Today I made a joke about you leaving the country and you are upset. Imagine
>> the situation when unlimited immigration changes the demographics of UK (which it did in some
>> parts already) and you (or your next generation) would be forced to relocate.


God you really dont understand do you. You do realise the population demographics of the UK have been changed more by non EU immigration? You do realise the largest number of immigrants is Indian? You do realise thats been going on longer than EU immigration - which by the way tends to be transient?

You dont do you? You dont understand any of this.

       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - movilogo
Do you realize that non-EU people has no automatic right to enter UK? Govt can control non-EU migration*. Since 2010/2011 non-EU migrants under Intra Company Transfer no longer qualifies for residency in UK. There are also "caps" of how many non-EU migrants (via legal routes) can come to UK every year.

Govt can't control EU migration at all.

* = Now why UK govt. not controlling non-EU migration that's a different question.

A vast majority of voters probably can't even differentiate between EU vs Non-EU migration. A good number of people possibly automatically assumed Brexit will halt both EU and non-EU migration and that sentiment was major force behing Brexit.


       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Zero
>> Do you realize that non-EU people has no automatic right to enter UK?

And that is really what gets on your goat isnt it, you think they are inferior to you.

OK enough. I have wasted enough thoughts on you, you are beyond belief, strangely enough in your own way you are as racist as Roger. Imagine an immigrant who hates other immigrants.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Lygonos
>>There are also "caps" of how many non-EU migrants (via legal routes) can come to UK every year.

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaa………

227,000 last year.

fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/


And that's the immigrants we have, and always had, full control over entry.


Ignorance without the bliss.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - zippy
>> A true financial hardship is about not having enough money to pay for food, clothes
>> or shelter. Such kind of hardship only exists in poor countries in Asia, Africa etc.
>>
>> In democracy it is not always possible please everyone. So what majority wants minority has
>> to accept it.
>>
>> If you can't accept, then you are free to exercise your freedom of movement right
>> and relocate to a country inside EU where you think your life would be better.
>>

You are a stirrer. You come to this country and then have the gall to tell us what we should do. And, before you claim this as racist, it isn't. I know and work with dozens of foreigners, many of whom are friends, some who have fled countries with barely the clothes on their backs - they were not economic migrants. Some of these have expressed views, both in and out, but none have the cheek to tell citizens of a country to sod off elsewhere. I've occasionally insulted people on this forum before but not often, this is personally for you: I think you are an absolute git.

I am patriotic and want to stay here. The fact that some dye in the wool lunatics (Cameron, Johnson et al) want to screw it up for the majority to settle an in party civil war is risible.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - movilogo
UK economy grew by 0.6% whereas Eurozone growth is 0.2%.

www.bbc.com/news/business-46151172

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/30/eurozone-growth-slumps-to-lowest-level-in-over-four-years


Just stating the facts - you can interpret it in your own way.
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - smokie
I wonder what it'll look like after BREXIT?

Ohm, and you are just looking at one point in time. Compare the two and you'll see that it's the first time the UK has exceeded the EU since Jan 2016.

EU - tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

UK - tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

Just stating more facts - you can interpret it in your own way. :-)
       
 Dominic Raab under fire over Dover-Calais comments - Zero
>> UK economy grew by 0.6% whereas Eurozone growth is 0.2%.
>> www.bbc.com/news/business-46151172
>> www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/30/eurozone-growth-slumps-to-lowest-level->>in-over-four-years
>> Just stating the facts - you can interpret it in your own way.

Amazing what benefits all those uncontrolled non Indian immigrants has brought to the UK.
       
 GDP - movilogo
I wonder how it would be interpreted if GDP falls but per capita income grows.

China has massive GDP value but per capita income is far less than European countries.

GDP can go down after Brexit but house price likely to fall too (along with mortgage rates). So, even after GDP fall, people can end up with more income in pocket.

Financial market is very hard to predict. Even Issact Newton lost money on stocks.
www.businessinsider.com/isaac-newton-lost-a-fortune-on-englands-hottest-stock-2016-1?r=UK&IR=T

       
 GDP - movilogo
Here is one good article on GDP

www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/gdp-frog-matchbox-david-pilling-growth-delusion/

       
 Brexit Discussion - Volume 65 - No FM2R
www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46188790
       
 Are we there yet? - smokie
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46188790

Seems TM is saying they have finalised the divorce settlement with the EU, and will be meeting MPs individually tonight to discuss.

I doubt she'll get approval from them all but even if they agree with her face to face they'll be out of the door and change their mind. They have form to in that area.

My hope is that it brings it to a point where all sides can accept the compromises and we can move forwards with a deal, and start to build over the gaps which the referendum exposed.
       
 Are we there yet? - CGNorwich
Members of cabinet being talked to individually by PM.

Put up or shut up time!
       
 Are we there yet? - Bromptonaut
>> Members of cabinet being talked to individually by PM.
>>
>> Put up or shut up time!

Remember the last female PM who tried that gambit :-P
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Tue 13 Nov 18 at 18:19
       
 Are we there yet? - Manatee
>> >> Members of cabinet being talked to individually by PM.
>> >>
>> >> Put up or shut up time!
>>
>> Remember the last female PM who tried that gambit :-P

Nobody else wants the job just now, not even Boris.
       
 Are we there yet? - Zero

>> Nobody else wants the job just now, not even Boris.

Even some of the Labour Party dont want this poisoned chalice.
       
 Are we there yet? - CGNorwich
So do we think the deal will get parliamentary approval then? And will Mrs May survive as PM?

Will be a pretty amazing political achievement if she does.
       
 Are we there yet? - sooty123
I'm going to say yes to both.
       
 Are we there yet? - R.P.
Neither of us are in any shape or form a fan of TM, but listening to the news over tea we both expressed the view that despite everything, she's stuck it out. A quitter she's not.
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
>>So do we think the deal will get parliamentary approval then?

I don't think they have any choice. One hopes they base their decision on something more substantial than media dumbing down.

>>And will Mrs May survive as PM?

The thing in her favour is that anybody else taking over now will crash and burn with everybody watching. So, I should think she'll just about make it this time.


However, will she be PM a year rom now? I very, very much doubt it.
       
 Are we there yet? - Bromptonaut
>> I don't think they have any choice. One hopes they base their decision on something
>> more substantial than media dumbing down.

There are still choices. Some on her own side and/or DUP may not go along. Are there enough Labour rebels prepared, for whatever reason, to go through government lobby and carry day?

I don't think it's happenstance that deal has been left until now - both May and EU know they can say we're at point where, given Article 50 deadline, rejecting this deal is high risk.


>> >>And will Mrs May survive as PM?
>>
>> The thing in her favour is that anybody else taking over now will crash and
>> burn with everybody watching. So, I should think she'll just about make it this time.
>>
>>
>> However, will she be PM a year rom now? I very, very much doubt it.

Agree.
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
>> I don't think they have any choice.

>There are still choices.

I wasn't clear. I more meant that I don't think anybody with political ambition would bs stupid enough to stick their head above the parapet at this stage if they felt they had a real chance of being a successful PM.

I guess it's possible that someone may realise that they have no real hope in the long term and so has little to lose by taking a short term role, but it's difficult to see that they could get sufficient support.

Any of the major players will surely have the sense to keep clear of the role for 6 months.
       
 Are we there yet? - Manatee

>> I guess it's possible that someone may realise that they have no real hope in
>> the long term and so has little to lose by taking a short term role

Like TM last time.
       
 Are we there yet? - CGNorwich

>>
>> Any of the major players will surely have the sense to keep clear of the
>> role for 6 months.
>>
Boris hasn’t got much sense though!
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
>>Boris hasn't got much sense though!

Fair point, well made.
       
 Are we there yet? - Zero
He's got sense enough not to have made a leadership bid.
       
 Are we there yet? - Bromptonaut
>> He's got sense enough not to have made a leadership bid.

Only because he's not had opportunity.
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
He's not had the right time. The opportunity has been there, but the situation and the timing has not been right. He'd simply be stepping in front of the cannon.

And then he'd have to deliver on no-deal or back right down over this deal, then he'd cop the blame for just about everything for the next 6 months.


Not so say that there won't be some serious brinkmanship going on.
       
 Are we there yet? - Manatee
>> >>So do we think the deal will get parliamentary approval then?
>>
>> I don't think they have any choice.

Maybe. But difficult for any MP with a conscience to vote for an arrangement where we have less sovereignty than we had in the EU. It's a cleft stick - both alternatives being unappealing, and whilst it's likely to be a compromise of sorts it's not one on the line between in and out. It's somewhere on the other side of 'in' if rumours are true and will satisfy no-one.

A re-boot of some sort would be better than either, but it will take some achieving and dressing up.

The Micawber approach is starting to look appealing.
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
Things is, how can it be any better than what she has achieved?

The next 3 years are going to be far more important than the deal, just so it comes with a long transition period.

We could have achieved are more over the last two years than we have done, showing our rather ineffectual and pathetic leadership, as well as the dangers of a close run referendum.

On both sides there were voters who voted "emotionally", for want of a better word. Anybody who voted leave for such reasons will almost certainly get pretty much nothing of what they wanted and nothing of what they were promised. And what it appears they do get, will be in name only.

Screw up, from start to finish.
       
 Are we there yet? - Cliff Pope
Well, there's democracy for you. You put forward two opposing propositions that appear pretty clearcut and you get an outcome that nobody would have voted for if it had been on the table in the first place.

I hope the advocates of referendums are pleased with the outcome - definitely a lesson for the future. :)
       
 Are we there yet? - Mapmaker
>> definitely a lesson for the future. :)

LOL!

Personally I am a fan of the PM. I think she is a politician out of duty, not out of a desire for power for power's sake. I think she knew there would be no joy with this particular job, but she took it anyway. The place I consider she badly misjudged it was in calling a general election. She was not chosen as leader to contest a GE, she was chosen as a safe, middle-of-the-road pair of hands to conduct Brexit.

       
 Are we there yet? - Zero

>> The place I consider she badly misjudged it was in calling a general election. She
>> was not chosen as leader to contest a GE, she was chosen as a safe,
>> middle-of-the-road pair of hands to conduct Brexit.

She was misled, or ill advised that she could increase the conservatory majority, sidelining some of the rabid anti EU mob in her party and strengthening her control, position and options going forward.


She is not charismatic, has a poor public manner and therefore lost seats, and severely weakened her position.

I'm not so sure she chose to take it on from there, more like no-one else was prepared to take it on from there. It is as they say, severely career limiting.
       
 Are we there yet? - movilogo
Planes will still fly in case of no-deal Brexit.

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1044841/Brexit-news-EU-UK-plane-travel-no-deal-latest-project-fear-snub-European-Union-open-skies
       
 Are we there yet? - Lygonos

Part one of BEANO
       
 Are we there yet? - Haywain
"Planes will still fly in case of no-deal Brexit."

Don't be silly - the sky is going to fall in.
      2  
 Are we there yet? - movilogo
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6386435/PM-told-days-numbered-battles-historic-Brexit-deal-cabinet.html

Regulations: The UK is set to have to follow most single market regulations during any backstop period.

Being in SM means accepting 4 freedoms. So no change from status quo.

This will be burried somewhere in footnote of section 15.3 in page 393 of 500 page summary.


The fight over Irish border is just a decoy to divert attention from other issues.

       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
Think about it;

If we have no deal, then a deal to allow planes to fly will not exist.

If there is a deal to allow planes to fly, then we have a deal

And what about EASA? Will we be part of EASA in our own right? You don't need to be an EU member to be part of EASA, but you need to abide by its rules. But what about the ultimate jurisdiction of the ECJ?

[ eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2004:016:0020:0022:EN:PDF ]

What about 5th Freedom rights which are not mentioned in the Express article?

What about the EU-US Open Skies agreement? it has been stated by David Davis that the UK will be leaving this agreement. Talks have started with the US, but currently we're being held over a barrel for LHR concessions so right now the

However, it is SFA to do with the EU as to whether or not we continue to fly to the US.

Read the FT article entitled "US offers UK inferior open skies deal after Brexit"

I don't think I can be bothered to detail the rest, I've written it all before. Search for it if want, stick with headlines you like, otherwise.

There will be a deal, it will be BEANO, it will accept the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

The only question is for how long.

link amended so that it'll work. It didn't like the square bracket right at the end of it


Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 14 Nov 18 at 13:00
       
 Are we there yet? - movilogo
Currently most popular comment from Guardian

So this whole exercise in “taking back control” has resulted in a complex document written by a small number of people in secret, that the British people have had absolutely no input in shaping, that will almost certainly be unsatisfactory for everyone on all sides, and is too long for any real scrutiny to happen in the time available. Not that it could really be modified anyway. Marvellous. I feel so empowered by this moment.
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
From above...

"On both sides there were voters who voted "emotionally", for want of a better word. Anybody who voted leave for such reasons will almost certainly get pretty much nothing of what they wanted and nothing of what they were promised. And what it appears they do get, will be in name only."
       
 Are we there yet? - smokie
Hmmm so should we have asked the PM to write a draft then pass it round all 66m of us to comment and discuss? Surely by democratically electing a government we are asking them to do that stuff on our behalf?


Anyway, more good news - visas not required for short European stays by us, or short UK stays by "them". www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478. :-)
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 14 Nov 18 at 12:24
       
 Are we there yet? - movilogo
No visa and planes flying - so holidays are sorted :-)
       
 Are we there yet? - Lygonos

Effectively status quo with the UK following the EU's tune.

What's that called again?
       
 Are we there yet? - Dutchie
It is similair to a Norewegian deal except the concessions from the E.U is immigration control.

I didn't expected much else we are in a corner.Take it or leave it or go to world trade rules without a deal with the E.U.
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
>>except the concessions from the E.U is immigration control.

Keep watching, that one isn't over yet. The final result will be pretty much what we were offered two years ago.
       
 Are we there yet? - movilogo
>> concessions from the E.U is immigration control.

We'll possibly have that from 2051 and until them FOM would be renamed as "mobility scheme".

Tell me one thing on which TM hasn't made U turn.

If EU is not shouting UK's demand as ridiculous, that means UK has given away too much.


Last edited by: movilogo on Wed 14 Nov 18 at 14:50
      1  
 Are we there yet? - commerdriver
>> If EU is not shouting UK's demand as ridiculous, that means UK has given away
>> too much.
>>
On that basis how do we ever get an agreement the UK and the EU both accept?
Successful negotiation is measured by the agreement not by examining the concessions.
       
 Are we there yet? - movilogo
>> how do we ever get an agreement the UK and the EU both accept?

This is why it is better to leave the EU without trying to make a deal.

This negotiation is not for win-win but win-lose - like a war. What is good for EU is bad for UK and vice versa. EU doesn't want UK to leave. It is not in their interest to put UK in better position.

So either UK wins or EU wins. So far EU is winning. Being half in and half out is worst of both worlds.

Agreeing on minor stuff but conceding on major stuff is not a balanced negotiation.

Conservative Brexiteers do not much choice though. They need to either accept TM's deal or remove her and put a pro-leave PM.
      1  
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
>>This is why it is better to leave the EU without trying to make a deal.

Have you read and understood nothing in this process?

Why do you even bother participating if you are not prepared to at least try to learn?

Are you about to spout off again about WTO tariffs and trading terms? Do you know what they are? Do you know what their impact would be?

What about European Police and Security data sharing?

What about British living abroad?

Other than being desperate to stop people coming here on favourable immigration terms, did you have any other goals for Brexit?
       
 Are we there yet? - movilogo
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”

? George Bernard Shaw,
      1  
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R


Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools speak because they have to say something - Plato
       
 Are we there yet? - legacylad
“ unless something happens that we can’t predict, I don’t think a lot will happen “
Fred Trueman
      1  
 Are we there yet? - Dog
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment
~The Buddleia
       
 Are we there yet? - Lygonos
In the land of the blind,
the one-eyed man is King.
       
 Are we there yet? - smokie
For what we are about to receive may the Lord make us truly thankful :-)
       
 Are we there yet? - CGNorwich
Don’t panic!

Corporal Jones
       
 Are we there yet? - Manatee
We're all doomed.

Pte Fraser.
       
 Are we there yet? - Lygonos
"Throw him to the floor"

Pontius Pilate


www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx_G2a2hL6U
       
 Are we there yet? - No FM2R
You should never trust quotes on the internet just because they have a famous name next to them.

Abraham Lincoln
       
Latest Forum Posts