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Continuing debate
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 14 Jul 16 at 10:15
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Thanks for posting that John Boy. I had missed the original broadcast. Hislop's take on it pretty much mirrors my own.
I accept the result, I'm not about to re-examine the reasons why we find ourselves in this situation, but I really would like someone credible to tell us why we should be happy about it now that we are.
I can see and foresee a whole lot bad about it.
For the love of God please tell me what is good about it?
I really want to know.
Anyone?
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>>
>> For the love of God please tell me what is good about it?
>>
>> I really want to know.
>>
>> Anyone?
There's been lots in the papers, it would be really tedious to repeat it all, but could if you like.
I'd suggest reading Alistair Heath in the Telegraph for a start. He's intelligent, educated and articulate, has consistently argued the economic and business points, and supports immigration to import key skills to fill a labour shortage.
Read his 10-point action plan in yesterday's edition. If you want a sensible antedote to the foreigner-bashing stereotypical Exiter then he's your man.
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I did too. It consists of a mixture of unfunded tax cuts and what amounts to begging international businesses not to leave the UK. Plus some baseless wishful thinking like this:
With the right negotiations and domestic reforms, the UK economy could be larger than it would otherwise have been under a Remain scenario in just a few years’ time, going on to demolish all the gloomy predictions of Project Fear.
Is that the best they've got?
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>> Is that the best they've got?
>>
...fittingly, the French have a rather appropriate 'proverbe'...
.........."With a few "ifs" we could put Paris in a bottle".......
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My apologies if it's too "tedious" to discuss. Just that from where I am, with a business that has been rocked by these recent events, in particular the dollar rate, customers reporting a severe downturn in sales in the UK high streets and EU customers reporting a sudden and very significant public resistance to buying British, it is far from boring right now.
Tediously enough, we may well have to make cuts sooner rather than later. That would include jobs.
Bit of a yawn that eh?
Still, it'll be alright soon won't it? All under control. All for the greater good.
Much happier now, thank you.
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....cheer up old chap - we'll soon be in the sunny uplands of Leadsom's mindless optimism......
errr, to quote another poster......that isn't helping, is it?
And, all joking apart, you have my sympathy.
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Oh there really is nothing else for us ordinary types to do but make the best of it. What alternative is there in the end?
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>> Oh there really is nothing else for us ordinary types to do but make the best of it. What alternative is there in the end?
We must now prepare for the process to exit the EU,' the Government says
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-government-rejects-eu-referendum-petition-latest-a7128306.html
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Would have been quite good if there had been some preparation or at least some proposals in place before the referendum. As it is there is now a distinct similarity between Westminster and a collection of headless chickens.
In truth, no one there actually expected the leave result or wanted it. It was simply a bunch of career politicians using it as a platform to raise their personal profiles which went badly wrong.
No one actually knows what to do now and in the meanwhile the very people they hoodwinked into voting to leave are the ones who will suffer the worst consequences.
It will not be alright on the night.
But it is the situation we, and they, have to deal with. Regrettably.
So yes, we'd better get on and do that.
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....I was amused by the suggestion that we should let Baldrick run the Brexit negotiations.......
....on the basis that he would both significantly raise the average IQ of the possible contenders, and have a better plan.....
;-)
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Re Dog's comment. That's only a civil servant proclaiming Gov. view, but without the voice of Parliament. Nothing is fixed unless and until Parliament decides.
Last edited by: NortonES2 on Sat 9 Jul 16 at 12:03
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>>Nothing is fixed unless and until Parliament decides.
Well they had better get a move on then because it is that very uncertainty which is making potential business investors, both here and abroad, apprehensive about putting their money into UK PLC.
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Needing to select a new Tory leader/PM was inevitable with a leave vote winning. And it takes months. That's a given. What did you expect?Cameron to stay or a new leader without anyone voting for it.
Not a good starting point. You'll all be blaming the remain campaign next or the Government.
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Blame is for God, and small children.
:-)
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"Brexit means Brexit"
The Foreign Office, the ministry that had steered through parliament the EU Referendum Act setting out the rules, responded that the legislation did not set a threshold for the result or for minimum turnout.
"The Prime Minister and Government have been clear that this was a once in a generation vote and, as the Prime Minister has said, the decision must be respected"
uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-petition-idUKKCN0ZP0D4
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OK, so what would you like to see happen?
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I would like the UK to either trigger Article 50 ASAP, and then begin negotiating trade deals with other European countries, and indeed the rest of the world, or for the US of E to amend the Maastricht Treaty to the benefit and with agreement of all members of the EU project.
Um, that may mean having another referendum on the outcome and implications of said amendments :)
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...but all the current members of the EU are debarred from such talks individually, (which doesn't leave very many to talk to)....
...triggering Article 50 immediately puts the UK into the worst possible negotiating position (which is why at least a modicum of common sense has been displayed in not doing so to date)....
...and the second referendum has (as you so gleefully have reminded us) been (for now at least) kicked into touch....
Checkmate!
(Be careful what you wish for ;-) )
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The population of the world is c7.4 Billion. The population of the EU (including us) is c510 Million, so there's plenty of trade to be done out there.
Obviously trade between the EU and the UK will carry on after Brexit, the terms of which will be negotiated by the new PM's Brexit team in due course.
As for triggering Article 50 ASAP, well, it clearly isn't possible at the moment, even my two dogs can understand that, so I'll say as soon as is favourable for the UK.
Really, we elect politicians to act on our behalf and in our best interest, so why should I have to sort out this post Brexit result enigma.
:o}
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Anything other than trade? What's the endpoint?
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To be fully independent again is THE biggie for me.
Immigration to this country doesn't affect me one jot where I live, but something must be done to limit the numbers coming here, hence the East of England where three out of five people voted Leave, due no doubt to the mass immigration to that area from Eastern Europe which has taken place over the years.
I don't possess a scrying crystal so I can't foretell what the UK/EU will look like in 12 months or 12 years time. Sterling has taken a hit, which is not all bad of course, as it makes our exports cheaper. The FTSE100 and 250 are holding up well ... at the moment.
In the final analysis - I don't think anyone knows what happens next, being no one actually planned for a Leave result. So we have to get May (maybe) into number 10, and do some hard negotiating with the EU, bearing in mind that there are other non EU countries trading with the single market who don’t have to pay into the EU budget for the privilege of doing so.
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To be fully independent again is THE biggie for me.
We know. Take back control. Of what, from whom, to what end, with what result and HOW???
Oh, and don't mistake trading with the Single Market for trading in the Single Market.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Sat 9 Jul 16 at 22:04
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You're beginning to walk like a glass half empty merchant, and talk like a glass half empty merchant, and yes, I've read the paragraph from the 'professor of European Constitutional and Economic Law'.
Try to find a smidgen of confidence in a fully independent UK, making its own way in the big wide world - including of course Europe, which exports more to the UK than we do to them.
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Half-empty would be progress. I told you two weeks ago that we no longer even have a glass and I've got no reason to change my mind. I keep asking you to show me why I should believe that an isolated UK will do better than the connected one we (still, just about) have now and all you can offer is crap like 'have confidence'.
Leave won the referendum with big fat lies and no plan. You may claim there's still majority support for exit but I think you'd have a hard time proving it now. An actual, credible, thought-through plan would be a really nice start.
Next you'll probably wonder sarcastically how we ever managed before 1973. (That may be more Haywain's territory but he's gone into hiding.) Even in Cornwall you must have noticed that we don't make our money or our society now the way we did then. Nor does anyone else in Western Europe and there's no going back. In any case I dimly remember 1972 and it's not a model I'd choose to return to.
Something Will Turn Up. SWTU. Is that really all you've got?
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You keep banging on about Europe, Will, but there's more to the world than that.
What part of "our biggest markets are outside the EU" don't you understand?
I've said it before and I'll say it again - I hate the EU, but love Europe. I'd like to see the project fail and revert back to something akin to a pre Maastricht Treaty 'common market' not a political union.
>>Something Will Turn Up. SWTU. Is that really all you've got?
= TCOGB Things can only get better :o)
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I hate the EU...
We all know that, and that's what motivated your vote. You seem to have started from the view that 'anything must be better than this', which is quite common on the knee-jerk right. But you can't just destroy without a plan to rebuild. Now your act of destruction is (almost) complete we need to know - from you - what comes next.
I understand perfectly, thank you, that there are markets beyond the EU; I've done business in both. Unlike you, I don't see them as alternative but complementary; indeed they already are and have to continue that way. We already trade extensively outside Europe, so the idea that there's huge untapped wealth just for the taking as soon as we're free of that Cold Dead Hand is bizarre and naive. Even the Westminster Outies seem to know that, hence all the talk about finding a solution that retains access to the Single Market, while still appeasing the anti-immigration lobby.
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Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.!
Had visitors today from some London burb called Maidstone.
Flew into Newquay from Gatwick. Staying in Padstein. Hired a little Polo bluemotion, looked a nice little car, until I sat in it.
He imports foodstuff and drink from the US of A and exports it to the US of E.
Asked him if the Leave vote had affected his business yet in any way (thinking of Runfor D'Backbridge)
No says he ... but it will.
How will it affect your business, says I (I had to ask this question 3 times like on QT)
Dunno, says he ... but it will.
Yet another glass-arf-empty merchant, quite a few of 'em around, I hear.
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Try telling him how the new system you're so excited about will work and he'll have a chance of answering your question. We've asked you that an awful lot more than three times and we're still waiting.
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The new system we're all so excited about is known only to the 17,410,742 optimistic Brexiteers.
If we told the 16,141,241 pessimistic Remainers, well, lets just say it would be messy, very, very messy.
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I expect he was being polite. One of my drinking buddies voted out but we avoid the subject now as we're good friends and will never see eye to eye on it.
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>>I expect he was being polite
He certainly accepted the fact that the "Leavers" won by a considerable margin, and didn't whinge about it in any way, unlike some of the posters here.
:o}
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>> He certainly accepted the fact that the "Leavers" won by a considerable margin, and didn't
>> whinge about it in any way, unlike some of the posters here.
48/52 is not, by any measure, a considerable margin.
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...and it's been progressively eroded as the falsity and emptiness of the Outies' promises has become clear.
Call it whingeing if you like, Dog. If someone stole your washing off the line, you'd complain. The Leave campaign wants to steal our country and our future, and would never have won the vote if it had been forced to retract its lies during the campaign, rather than sheepishly afterwards before fleeing the scene. You've got a long way to go yet - but if you want us to even begin to trust you, a plan would be a good start.
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...I'm normally a "glass half full" merchant.
Unfortunately, I woke up on June 24th to find the glass had been stolen......
;-)
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"Really, we elect politicians to act on our behalf and in our best interest, "
So why did we have a referendum and not leave the decision to parliament ?
Confused of Norwich
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>> So why did we have a referendum and not leave the decision to parliament ?
Because Parliament decided to ask us instead.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 10 Jul 16 at 05:08
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But should they have done? I rather thought that we elected politicians to make informed but difficult decisions as indeed apparently does Dog.
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What, like I said here in May or thereabouts? :-)
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I think you will find I said the same.
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D'you want a vote about it? :-)
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>>...fittingly, the French have a rather appropriate 'proverbe'...
In Vienna, "If my grandmother had wheels she'd be a trolleybus".
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At least Pat is happy. Will she think it's all good if Ian and/or her son lose their jobs?
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Don't read it if you don't want to, but it does more or less line up with my view and that of many I know.
www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/for-the-first-time-in-my-life-i-feel-ashamed-to-be-british/?ref=yfp
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You would really love to see that happen, wouldn't you rtj?
...and what's ny son got to do with it? You don't even know what job he does?
We're both probably a lot more flexible than a lot on here.
We've both done other jobs in the past, jobs we don't like but which pay the bills.
We've both been broke in the past, not just broke, but broke and happy which many couldn't even comprehend.
We've both survived a lot more than some and have come out of the other side fighting and smiling so if you predictions (hopes?) come true, have no fear, we'll still be happy and working somewhere.
Now give it a rest.
Pat
Last edited by: Pat on Sat 9 Jul 16 at 12:40
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Both you and your son voted leave. So if there are job losses I assume you're okay if it impacts you. Because you were one to choose this impact on others. Humph might need to make people redundant and it's only been two weeks since the referendum.
Not wishing it on you or your family hence a question.
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>>you or your family hence a question.<<<
And I have one for you.
Since I have no idea how my son voted how do you know?
He lives in Leics, I live in the Fen, we have a quick call on the phone as often as possible but have far more interesting things to talk about than politics, so just how do you know?
You have let your nasty streak over step the mark rtj this time.
Just be assured whatever hardship befalls me, or any of my family, we will be better equipped to deal with it than you.
Pat
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Because you've previously said as such or at least implied it.
It wasn't meant as nasty merely stating if there are job losses it could impact you and your family. Are you happy with that? I'm not.
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>>Because you've previously said as such or at least implied it. <<
No, I haven't. I haven't a clue how he voted and I certainly haven't asked him.
>>if there are job losses it could impact you and your family.<<
IF is the problem rtj, stop spreading impending doom and gloom.
You haven't a clue what might happen anymore than anyone else at the moment so stop pretending you have.
So many of us have lived with job losses, pay cuts and all that goes with it for the last 10 years that it is nothing new and we can cope.
Possibly it may be a good thing for others to feel that uncertainty too and make decision making for the future a bit more difficult.
It will certainly mean you have to learn how the other half (52%) live anyway.
Pat
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To be clear, no drastic action is yet planned re people's jobs from my side. However, it is of course a function of how long the current trends last.
Which is why I asked the question this morning in the hope that someone can encourage me and others like me to believe there is a positive future outlook in a reasonable timescale.
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I don't know if this is a barometer of 'consumer confidence' but the local pubs in my part of the world are as busy as ever, and that's with locals, not including the seasonal visitors. They seem to be serving as much food as ever, and peeps are happy enough to pay 80p for a small bag of nuts!
Maybe in a few months we shall see if there is any difference in consumer spending. Selfishly ( at least I'm honest) there may be overcapacity in some ski resorts and with the falling £/€ rate some skiers may stop at home, and I can grab a few last minute bargain trips, although a group of friends have just paid top dollar to ski in Italy pre Xmas.
Selfishly ( again) does this mean that my potential BMW 3 Touring might be cheaper to buy in future, although as I shall be buying one around 3yo maybe owners will hang onto them longer?
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I tend to look on the bright side: my Euro pensions are up 12%
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Unless there is a temporary glut to take advantage of, your BMW will more likely be going up as we are c. 10% down against the Euro.
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Oh dear....I'm certainly not increasing my budget. Looks like the Focus will be a keeper then, at least short to medium term. I would hate to take advantage of anyone's circumstances, but if this portent of doom & gloom comes to pass then there may be a few lease vehicles being returned early.
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BMW sell, what, 130'000 cars in the UK? But they have an engine plant that makes around half a million engines, a MINI factory that makes around 300k units and a RR factory that makes around 4K units, so presumably exports a similar value of stuff that they import... A pretty useful natural hedge... Accepting that the cars they make have an imported component too, but these things are never simple! No wonder they are keen for Merkel not to be too inflammatory... And of course the UK is (was...) the only EU market in growth from the perspective of car sales... I wouldn't worry about the price of your BMW quite yet...
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>> And of course the UK is (was...) the only EU market in growth from the perspective of car sales...
...the industry seems to think "was". AIUI the sales have dropped, and there is a wait with bated breath for the September figures (which will either show a boost, or a continued downward trend).
Even before Brexit was confirmed, there were fears that it was happening, and some projections show demand falling off the edge of a cliff.
Of course, this may all be "doom and gloom".
;-)
I also wouldn't be confident of BMW holding the price of its imports simply because it gets better value from its (different) exports - in general markets don't work that way.
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I don't think it'll hold the prices because of its imports, I just think it'll put them in a better position than the likes of MB in fighting for volume in a shrinking (in € terms if not in volume, though probably in volume too) market.
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>> I just think it'll put them in a better position than the likes of MB in fighting for volume......
...I won't argue with that, but likewise, it also puts them (as a company) in a better position to increase the prices in the UK, since any shortfall in sales/profits will be offset or outweighed by the benefits of the £/€ exchange rate if they don't reduce prices outside the UK market.
And holding the price when the cost has fallen is a damn sight easier than doing so when the cost has risen.
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If they could sell the cars elsewhere I'd agree...but with discounts north of 20% on many models all year I'm not sure they can.... Certainly fears over banks in the EU zone makes it unlikely they'll be able to increase volume hugely in the rest of Europe. China is growing, but more slowly. And they manufacture many models in country. The US is showing signs of growth, so that's an option, but that's a pretty mature market for them with a squeezed middle class. And of course Trump could put an end to their growth ;)
Maybe I'm too relaxed, but people want to buy stuff. And people make stuff. In most areas there's always been a little bit more supply than demand... Demand in the UK might well drop, but that'll have a limited effect globally. It will be more significant for some sectors, and that's a problem. The big unknown though is not now or next year, or even the year after that, but in 5 or 10 years. We'll probably be worse off (excepting all the retired baby boomers on final salary pensions who voted 'out' :p), but we might not be.
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Where I live 6/13 of my neighbours are retirees, all in their 60s and early 70s. Plenty of disposable income, and all bar one have two cars, one couple have three, none older than 3 years. Obviously I don't know their financial circumstances, but I reckon they have bullet proof pensions, as does my 62yo pal with guaranteed 5% annual increase. They have got to spend their money on something...from what I see its home improvements, cars & holidays!
Let's hope they keep spending to help the economy, even if it's only local tradespeople, some of whom are permanently working in my locale.
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This is quite interesting...
www.economist.com/news/business/21701811-uncertainty-especially-about-regulation-spreads-among-industries-most-exposed-britain-rules?fsrc=scn/fb/te/pe/ed/rulesandbritannia
Perhaps we shouldn't be so hard on our Government for not having a plan; no one in Europe did either. I find it surprising that so few industries / businesses did. We fully expected a 'remain' but did at least model what an 'out' could look like, and we're a (relatively speaking) small Group, albeit with interests globally.
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Yes, Peter. We're probably even smaller (but more global) and we got our 'Brexit assessment' within a week. Ours is that we're unlikely to be too badly affected directly, because although we report in USD, we have revenues and costs in all sorts of currencies, so there's some natural hedging there.
It also means that a customer that moved out of the UK to, say, Spain, would still come to us for the same services and have them designed and delivered by the same people. But that's in the short term; longer term it means we're likely to strengthen our presence in countries where our customers are located and reduce it in the UK. I suspect there'll be a similar pattern in many other multinationals.
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>> BMW sell, what, 130'000 cars in the UK? But they have an engine plant that
>> makes around half a million engines, a MINI factory that makes around 300k units and
>> a RR factory that makes around 4K units, so presumably exports a similar value of
>> stuff that they import... A pretty useful natural hedge..
Good point. And if charging materially more £ hurts sales then the full net currency difference will not materialise - car making has substantial fixed costs. I don't know what the typical marginal cost of producing a car is now as a proportion of selling price, but a friend who worked for Ford a few years ago put it at well under 1/2.
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....my suspicion is likewise, and it was a factor (but only a minor one) in me placing an order earlier this week.
Given its a car that is sat in the compound at Thorne at the moment, rather than a factory order, the scope for a price-rise before delivery is rather low. ;-)
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Also, BMW have been discounting heavily (along with MB) so in the short term even less reason to worry...if anything increase discounts to offset falling consumer confidence. Production plans will be fixed for this year, and the number of RHD cars is effectively fixed. They'll do whether a needed to shift them. Worry more about what capacity they assign to the UK market next year, but even then as a key market and with high fixed costs they'll need to keep the volume moving...
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I think it's more a case of half the population being in blinkered denial about what is happening and what is to come, and the other half deciding that there's nothing much for it other than to go to the pub and get lashed enough to forget about it for a bit while they can still afford to LL...
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At £2.50 a pint in my local an evenings drinking isn't too expensive.... Most of my friends are ' in trade' ... Builders, joiners, plumbers, sparkies, decorators, and they are all booked up until next year. Two of my older friends retired a few years ago and have come out of retirement to help the younger trades because they have so much work on. Most are self employed or employ a small ( sub 10) workforce and are not concerned in the least. There are a lot of retireds around here, expensive houses, guaranteed pensions, and they are the ones who will keep the smaller tradespeople busy no matter what.
OTOH I think it's the big boys who will suffer the most, as reflected in the share price recently of Persimmon, Barratts, Safestyle et al, although a few financial websites I subscribe to see this as a buying opportunity. I did but so far it hasn't gone to plan!
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In line with the experience of my tradesman son. legacyclad - he has never been busier and he has exactly the kind of clientele you mention. I wonder what is going on here? They are the people who spend a lot on imported luxury and other goods and those are among the types that will increase in price. The goods for manufacture here will go up as well.
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Whilst the Irish could hardly be said to be in a disinterested position, they are far enough away to be somewhat more independent of view, but close enough to understand some of the situation.
I thought this article was a fairly good summary:
www.irishtimes.com/opinion/brexit-postmortem-new-prime-minister-will-have-two-logical-choices-1.2715452
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Excellent article, t&e - not by a journalist but by a professor of European Constitutional and Economic Law, in other words someone who understands the issues, rather than some ideology-driven Telegraph journalist.
This paragraph echoes what those of us here who get it have been saying all along. And the Outies still can't tell us how we'll even get to this.
Nor are Brexit negotiations themselves guaranteed to end well. They threaten to be long and difficult. The UK cannot possibly emerge from them in a situation equivalent to or better than membership. At best, it will end up like Norway, with access to the Single European Market retained, but Britain’s influence destroyed, a shocking, if economically survivable outcome for a state previously one of the EU’s three most influential regarding single market laws.
Ambo, I'm pleased your son isn't suffering yet, and (depending on where he lives) there may be enough of the cash-in-the-bank pensioners who voted for this disaster to keep him going for a while. But don't use him to convince yourself everything's fine. Do you really think we can maintain our position in the world on painting and decorating? The money to pay for services like that has to come from the wider - and ultimately the international - economy. And, as the Irish Times article points out, it's likely to take us ten years to negotiate our way back to somewhere well short of where we are today. Of course we'll have Albania, Belarus and New Zealand to trade with till then.
Please show me which bit of the Outie pie is anywhere below the stratosphere.
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>> Excellent article,
I really hoped so when I clicked the link, but the language is anything but objective. It starts off with the "driving off a cliff" invective, follows with two "plummets" in the same paragraph, then states the obvious truth that we either have to reverse it or deal with it.
It refers to the unworkable Bretton Woods agreement without mentioning that it was effectively replicated by the euro, with the same consequences playing out.
Disregarding the language, I agree that a period of uncertainty is destructive, so the task must be to reduce and mitigate it - the writer prefers the Private Fraser approach. Shame if he is actually right, but if he is he has said nothing much in that article to make his case.
He wrote quite a good piece before the referendum on the inadvisability of having one -
blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/04/27/what-the-uk-could-learn-from-irelands-eu-referendum-campaigns/
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You complain about the language, Manatee, but you voted Leave - ambivalently, I acknowledge - and as one of the more cerebral on that side of the argument, you must have had some idea of how it was going to improve our national situation. It's not that we haven't been asking, but even you seem to have no more than condemnation for those of us who see this result as catastrophic self-sabotage, and no vision of the route to a brighter future. Am I being unfair?
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>> even you seem to have no more than
>> condemnation for those of us who see this result as catastrophic self-sabotage, and no vision
>> of the route to a brighter future. Am I being unfair?
Not wilfully, but the continual framing of the argument "so, what's the plan the?" in previous postings is the fabled straw man, which no sensible debater will accept.
But let's not be sensible.
The plan if we stay in is presumably to continue to use our "seat at the table" to further the interests of Britain, e.g. inter alia to avoid direct calls for funding when the euro crisis hits Italy, Spain and Portugal, to negotiate a tenable position if and when the EU further develops towards fiscal and polictical union, to continue to support NATO, to encourage others to do so by allocating 2% of GDP to its funding, and to resist an "EU Army". You might also add some unspecified controls on migration since that won't go away, either for the UK or for some other members I suspect.
(I can't remember whether you are among those who think all the euro collapse talk is just crying wolf. Mervyn King for example believes that a Euro collapse is inevitable unless a country is in effect formed within Europe to form a fiscal union.)
The plan if we leave will perforce be much the same as if we remain, but the UK will have a freer hand outside than in. For example, within the EU the UK has to negotiate its liability for euro bailouts - out, the UK can choose. We will have absolute discretion on whether we participate in an EU army, which may well stop it happening and reinforce NATO. The money that the EU provides under CAP, regional support, and community projects will remain in the UK, which can choose where it goes.
I have not mentioned trade and the link to free movement. The "plan" is the same as the EU's which is to agree new rules. It is a mutual concern. I don't know what else you expect anybody to say at this stage. It is the EU's own process (which I suspect could be modified as a result of its being tested) that no negotiations can take place unless Article 50 is triggered.
Of course there is uncertainty. The exit rules were designed that way, not deliberately as a deterrent to leaving but as an incentive to members to resolve their differences within the EU.
I need to do something else for a while. I see Leadsom has just bailed, which I regard as progress as it removes the leadership hiatus. I see also that sterling has firmed slightly.
Last edited by: Manatee on Mon 11 Jul 16 at 12:42
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>> I think it's more a case of half the population being in blinkered denial about what is happening and what is to come, and the other half deciding that there's nothing much for it other than to go to the pub and get lashed enough to forget about it for a bit
Are we all going to be turned out of our houses onto the street to make room for deprived new arrivals Humph?
Doesn't sound good. But there are a lot of sheltered places for sleeping rough.
Fine when you get used to it ... soldarity of the deprived classes ... Eric Blair to name but one ... blah blah blah ...
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Eh? Early start was it, AC?
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>> >> I think it's more a case of half the population being in blinkered denial
>> about what is happening and what is to come, and the other half deciding that
>> there's nothing much for it other than to go to the pub and get lashed
>> enough to forget about it for a bit
>>
More likely I think half the population have worked themselves into a state of mass hysteria, and are flailing around lashing at anything and everyone. It's impossible to argue with them, so the other half will just carry on as normal and sort everything out.
Calm down dear. Nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all.
:)
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...the other half will just carry on as normal and sort everything out.
Good. But shouldn't they have started by now?
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...don't worry, Will.
Apparently Theresa May (if elected) has a cunning plan.
She's going to appoint a Brexit team and lock them away by themselves in a room for six months with tea and biscuits. At the end of that time sat there simply twiddling their thumbs, despite nothing changing they will emerge and announce it's all been sorted and we're now out of the EU.
Given everything the "outies" have believed so far, she reckons she's got more than an even chance of getting away with it.......
;-)
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The only glimmer of coherent response that I've seen, and it migh just be a knee jerk anyway, is Georges's announcement last week (not well covered, albeit I'm away) is the planned reduction of corporation tax to 15% by 2020. Reductions have already / are happening, but in my experience large corporations will put up with, and indeed create, almost mind boggling levels of complexity to reduce their tax charge.
Does the audience think that one way to shore up the UKs attractiveness to global corporations is to make us the most tax-efficient / business friendly country in europe (with a small 'e'!!). Sort of a hybrid of Ireland and Switzerland, but in EEFTA :p
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He could always drop a hand grenade and threaten to drop it to 10% if the EU get nasty in their negotiations.
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Pretty sure reducing the living standards of the population and spending less on Pensions, Health and Welfare will help the UK undercut the rest of Europe/the world.
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>> Pretty sure reducing the living standards of the population and spending less on Pensions, Health
>> and Welfare will help the UK undercut the rest of Europe/the world.
>>
Depends on hitting the right point on the Laffer Curve. Get it right and the increase in businesses operating from the UK will offset the loss from Corporation tax. Ireland have benefited from their reduction.
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Sun 10 Jul 16 at 17:39
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And our (the company I work for that is, not the whole Uk) exports to Spain are already up purely because of the exchange rate...
Who needs a government or a prime minister
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I thought living wage hits £9 an hour (2018?) it would be the highest in the world, and would equate to over 50% of average earnings...almost highest in the world? Be interesting to see if that £9 remains... Mind you, in $ terms it's dropping daily :p
Nope, I'm sure the corp tax reduction will sort it. And we'll get Swiss levels of efficiency in our public services and transport, with the Irish joy de vievre :p. Plus, duty free :)
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...I'll have a pint of what you're on...... ;-)
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Mojitos - I'm still on holiday sitting on a beach.
Still. How difficult can it be ;)
Sunny Gatwick Wednesday morning on one of BAs finest 777s. Makes you proud to be British... :o
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>> Mojitos
....cancel that....
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Stop it Peter. They want to wallow in the feeling that they are poor, deprived, not getting a fair crack of the whip like all them damn furriners.
They are doing what the Irish used to call 'putting on a poor mouth', something like that.
Whinge whinge snivel snivel, give us more! Smug greedy people-born-out-of-wedlock...
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...wallow in the feeling that they are poor, deprived, not getting a fair crack of the whip like all them damn furriners.
I think you're confusing us with the pre-vote Outies, AC. Now - with the exception of those safe on Pension Island (a bit wordy, so we'll call it PenIsland for short) all of us are in the same boat. We're just hoping the crewmembers who put the hole in it can explain how all this water coming in will make us much drier than before.
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I'm sure you are in the right of it WDB. I was generalizing carelessly as so often.
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That's easy...lower the sea! Sorry, I mean taxes... ;)
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....more likely to be Swiss joie de vivre, Irish public services, and 30% on "beer and fags"....but hey ho, I'm on Penisland, so what do I care.......
;-)
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Careful - you might get Norwegian wood.
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....I was thinking that, if we decide to trade with the few remaining non-EU European countries (and get a deal)..........
.....we should be alright for fish........
;-)
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>Austin! You lived in Austin? I am on a US trip in Oct that ends in Austin, could do with
>knowing that I have the place sussed properly. I want to listen to music in bars.
Yup. 4 years on a company assignment.
>Is this hotel in walking distance of where I need to be?
Well, it's within walking distance of the 6th Street bars but I wouldn't walk it. Not until I felt comfortable with the area, especially at night. The dividing line between the haves and have-nots in Austin is I35 and east of I35 has some rough patches.
Don't limit yourself to 6th Street, there are live music venues all over Austin. One of the best is The Continental Club on South Congress (we used to go every Tuesday evening). The Oasis on Lake Travis has gone a bit cheesy over the last few years but if the weather is good it's a stunning place to sit and watch the sun go down with a cold margarita.
continentalclub.com/#intro
Best place for listings of what's-on is here:
www.austinchronicle.com/
If you need more info let me know.
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Thanks Kevin, all info gratefully received and noted :-)
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"We British once cherished the idea of the good loser. Michael Gove exemplified it in his gracious speech of defeat last Thursday.
Sadly, the concept has bypassed a small, but vocal, minority whose outrage at the exercise of democracy by those they hold in utter contempt is boundless".
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/09/weve-made-the-right-choice-now-lets-stop-talking-the-country-dow/
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I think that journo has selective reading at best. He moans about people talking the economy down then does exactly the same himself for other countries by picking out one fact in isolation.
On the wider point about people unable to accept the result, if the result had gone the other way, he'd be at the front to have another vote with all the excuses in the world wheeled out. The idea he and others would just shrug their shoulders and say the people have spoken is laughable.
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Gove never wanted to win anyway, only to ensure Johnson didn't.
I've answered the trite 'sore loser' point many times. This is not a game, and the Leave campaign are not honest or honourable opponents - only one is still even there to argue with - so those who stand to lose by their dishonesty can quite reasonably do anything within constitutional limits to stop them. Can you show me anything I've suggested that is outside the rules of our constitution?
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>> Can you show me anything I've suggested that is outside the rules of our constitution?
>>
As we don't have a written constitution, that might be a little bit tricky.
However, I agree with you in principle.
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"The losers should accept they have lost, and grow up. If they can’t, they should shut up.
They don’t see how ridiculous they look to the millions who feel better about Britain now than they have done for decades".
TOWIU The only way is up, baby!
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>>TOWIU The only way is up, baby!
You been hitting Fluff's meds again?
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>>You been hitting Fluff's meds again?
:o) .. Yoos know I don't touch any meds, doc. And neither do my two mutts.
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Dawg... I'd refer you to the Ian Hislop clip linked to above, which the BBC titled "Remainers are entitled to a say"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36742691
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I watched Hislop on QT - he dun well that man ... The missus likes him too :-(
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Can you honestly say you'd be different dog if you'd not got the result you wanted?
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More about the constitutional issues here, in a letter to the PM signed by a number of barristers : tinyurl.com/h5hb2s3 The crux is
"“The referendum did not set a threshold necessary to leave the EU, commonly adopted in polls of national importance, eg, 60% of those voting or 40% of the electorate. This is presumably because the result was only advisory.
“The outcome of the exit process will affect a generation of people who were not old enough to vote in the referendum. The positions of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar require special consideration, since their populations did not vote to leave the EU."
It goes on to say that a Royal Commission is required to address the effects of exit, only then followed by a vote of Parliament on the issue.
A sound approach given the paucity of facts, lack off preparation and the manipulation of the public through lies and omission.
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>> It goes on to say that a Royal Commission is required to address the effects
>> of exit, only then followed by a vote of Parliament on the issue.
>>
>> A sound approach given the paucity of facts, lack off preparation and the manipulation of
>> the public through lies and omission.
But the timescale for a Royal Commission would be years. They're also a constitutional device that has fallen into disuse - the last was in late eighties. There's little experience in Whitehall of organising such things though no doubt there's plenty of corporate memory in the National Archive.
The constitutional issues though are indeed far reaching. Nobody on the Tory side, least of all Theresa May, can even suggest a pragmatic/compromise approach to Brexit until the leadership election is over. Any hint of flexibility on May's side would fast track Andrea Leadsom to Downing Street.
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Any hint of flexibility on May's side would fast track Andrea Leadsom to
>> Downing Street.
>>
Don't be surprised to see that happen anyway. Speaking to someone involved with local politics and the ear of the local rank and file conservatives, AL is favourite. For what that's worth.
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So we can look forward to a face-off between the Parliamentary party and the Conservative electorate. Vote of confidence, followed by General election?
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Who knows, might not be reflective of the wider party.
If both leaders change i find it hard to believe that there won't be a general election.
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I suspect too many MPs would be fearful of the result to vote for an early dissolution. It's very hard to see how an election campaign would even work with the factions aligned as they are at present.
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...if the current rumours about Leadsom withdrawing are correct, it would be a travesty if the way forward wasn't robustly questioned.
Every Senior figure involved in this debacle from both sides has now decided, for one reason or another, that it's become "all to difficult" and it needs someone other than themselves to sort it out.
Will the last Brexiteer in Parliament please turn off the lights........
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So, now we appear to have a leader and the markets are either at a high, or a recovering a bit in the case of currency, as one of the uncertainties has been removed. Do we think that's going to help some of the rather worrying, if extreme, anecdotal impacts of brexit (in the short term at least) that have been reported on this forum?
I understand in extreme uncertainty then doing nothing, or not spending money/placing orders, can be sensible. But given we are at least 2 years, if not more, of actually leaving (If indeed we do...) and one of the uncertainties had gone...what's the short / medium term prognosis from a 'business as usual' perspective?
We've still seen impact; the Spanish are preoccupied with their new government, as are the Australians. The Americans are worried about theirs. The French are looking to their upcoming elections...and the Greeks are at the taverna :p
We now have the Italians wanting a slice of Londons banking action as a panacea to their woes, so that's France, Germany and Italy fighting over that... What's next, and what's riskiest... Moving your business to the 'wrong' EU country (backing the wrong horse, so to speak) or staying out for a while...
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Well that's true, who knows how people might vote? I think they'd find a way to come together. Although if the reports are correct AL has dropped out and TM has said she won't try and call an election.
But who knows, what next week might bring?
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We all know nothing will happen until sometime after 9th Sept. We need a new PM and cabinet first. Then we can have discussions in the House of Commons. Until then there is no real plan because it depends on whether the PM is May or Leadsom.
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RC, or an independent enquiry, which I forgot to mention altho it's in the text. Full and proper consideration would take time in any case. But if the PM kicks off without Parliaments say so, then the EU might reject the Art. 50 trigger, as outwith the powers of the PM. Re your last sentence, I agree. If May says too much re the constitutional shambles, it will give the jitters to the Tory shires.
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Barclays and HSBC also announced that they had to plan to move out of UK.
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Read it carefully, RR, and tell me the crucial difference between Siemens in this context and, say, Nissan, Toyota, Airbus.
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How on earth do you get to that, Movi, when all Carney did was defend his impartiality during the campaign against that Victorian absurdity Jacob Rees-Mogg?
And just to answer my own question to RR: his link concerns Siemens and its heavy engineering activities - work it does in the UK to be delivered and paid for in the UK. It's not reliant like the others I mentioned on access to the Single Market to sell products manufactured here. Very different and not an indicator that Leave is a good idea; just something to which Leave was always going to make little difference either way.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Tue 12 Jul 16 at 13:46
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So, Parliament has now decided to debate the petition for a 2nd referendum on Sept 5th. If as Mrs May says "Brexit means Brexit", why bother?
Last edited by: devonite on Tue 12 Jul 16 at 16:19
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Aren't they obliged to, if there are over some threshold of signatures? And there's always lessons to be learnt for next time...!!
We have something similar here and there is a local forum on which there appear to me to be lots of busybodies who spend way too much time fretting over minor traffic infringements and how the grass has (not) been cut. Problem is they are the ones making a noise and most of the people who just get on with their life will end up paying for the noisy ones one way or another. Writing to the council seems to be a well-liked past-time. Do people not realise that in itself is an overheard, even of the council don't decide to implement any of the suggested changes?
Last edited by: smokie on Tue 12 Jul 16 at 18:12
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I just looked at the petition which was written on 25 May, well before the referendum. The wording is
"We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum."
Kudos to the geezer who wrote it for foreseeing a potential outcome which seemed to pass our leaders by!!
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Yes keen foresight! - unfortunately for remain voters there doesn't appear to have been a rule in place to implement, and the MP's didn't create one before the referendum "just in case" they got a "wrong" result!
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Actually Siemens employ over 10,000 people in the UK and operate, I think, 13 factories. They export a lot of high value medical kit for a start, and I think their statement applies to their whole operation in the Uk...
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Continuing Discussion - John Boy
