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On-going Debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 25 Jun 16 at 17:50
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Call me rash, opportunist, downright dumb, but I've just invested ALL my spare cash in equities this morning. Not a vast sum, but sufficient to buy a nice LEC. If I had commitments other than myself it would have been a far smaller sum, but I have always taken calculated risks.
Let's see how it is in a months time...that's my new car money all gone so at least I've liberated myself some time at the very least by no longer having to look... Although I'll still keep an eye on Motorpoint to see what I could have bought. Yesterday.
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>>Call me rash, opportunist, downright dumb, but I've just invested ALL my spare cash in equities this morning
Brave more like, to venture on these troubled waters. I would be interested to know what equities as there must surely be many falling knives.
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I try to buy on weakness... IMHO multinational oil & mineral companies will not be impacted much by yesterday's vote, yet their prices are dragged down by the general trading market. I've also just indulged myself and used funds in my current account to buy a couple of speculative stocks... Both UK companies as it happens.
Sorry no names, but I can still throw myself into the arms of Morpheus ( blatant plagiarism)
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I have just left a factory in Tunbridge Wells (voted In). I was supposed to be there all day but the MD was pre-occupied.....
About 80% of their staff are Eastern European. They have been coming to the HR office in dribs and drabs all morning asking if their jobs were safe or if they would be sent home. These are semi skilled manual labourers, incredibly polite and according to the MD very hard working.
It got to a point that the MD went down to the car park to address all of the staff. He was very sorry that he couldn't give them more information than was on the news but did make it clear that the company would not exist without their hard work and said that they advertise weekly for workers in the local papers as they are a success and expanding. They offer £12 per hour and rarely get applicants from UK citizens so he sees no reason for them to worry.
(As at May 16 there were 490 unemployed people in Tunbridge Wells and 5,000 plus within a reasonable commute.)
(£12 per hour is currently insufficient to meet the Govt.'s earnings requirement for non EU nationals to stay within the UK.)
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Unfortunately businesses pack up all the time. BHS, Austin Reed etc (+ thousands of small businesses) went bust when we were (well, we still are) in EU.
Nobody that time said being in EU is responsible for that. Now why not being in EU is cited as a reason now?
With every change some are benefited some are adversely affected. That's way of life.
I lost my own job twice during 2008-9 recession.
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@ movilogo
I'm pleased quality people like you chose to settle in Great Britain, adding to its richness and diversity.
Immigration is what has helped to make this country the 5th largest world economy.
Mother Strudel knows that, but she has opened the door a bit too wide I reckon :)
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I missed this piece yesterday. Movi, you must think I'm picking on you but this is pure idiocy and supports NoFM's argument that a significant number of Leave voters didn't understand the issues and still don't know what they've done.
Unfortunately businesses pack up all the time. BHS, Austin Reed etc (+ thousands of small businesses) went bust when we were (well, we still are) in EU.
So what? High Street retailing is difficult and getting more so. I discovered this week a favourite local shop of mine is closing because a rapacious landlord is demanding a rent it can't sustain. Perhaps now, as confidence collapses and businesses make their exit from London, there'll be a knock-on reduction in commercial rents. But there may not be any customers with money to spend.
Nobody that time said being in EU is responsible for that.
Because it wasn't. As retailers both will have benefited from free movement of goods in the EU.
Now why not being in EU is cited as a reason now?
Because leaving takes the existing - difficult, as above - commercial environment and adds one more thing - a huge one - to make it worse. It won't just be retailers this time, as Zippy already knows.
With every change some are benefited some are adversely affected. That's way of life.
Possibly. But, as we've been pointing out, six years of lost growth will damage the entire nation.
I lost my own job twice during 2008-9 recession.
And you may well do so again in the recession you've voted for. Did you think about any of this a week ago? Some of us here may have mentioned it.
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>>About 80% of their staff are Eastern European. They have been coming to the HR office in >>dribs and drabs all morning asking if their jobs were safe
Our C/Ex has been around to speak to the several EU workers on CA staff. Most are settled here with UK partners etc and I guess will be secure whatever but he wanted to re-assure. Suspect we'll be getting a lot of calls on subject. Like Tunbridge Wells we've got very few unemployed in Northampton - most are in churn between jobs. Advised a young woman yesterday who'd been dismissed for (albeit on highly dubious grounds) misconduct but picked up more work in days.
Without migrants the distribution hubs hereabouts will clog up and the shops empty.
You cannot easily fill those jobs based on points - too bureaucratic/time consuming and risks unhealthy dependence on employer - with scope for exploitation.
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Thought-provoking article in today's Guardian:
gu.com/p/4my4d?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
The idea that many ostensible Outies just wanted a narrow defeat fits with what some people here have said about their own views. They could have gone on quietly grumbling, saying they'd done their bit but lost out to an overbearing establishment, with none of the responsibility of having to deliver on the promise.
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Just for the record - Cornwall voted: 43.5per cent (140,540) to remain in the EU, while 56.5per cent (182,665) voted to leave.
The overall turnout in Cornwall was 77.07per cent
Cornish fishermen are well-pleased with the result, you would not believe how much fish they have to dump, thanks to EU quotas.
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>>you would not believe how much fish they have to dump, thanks to EU quotas.
>>
The UK had a veto, whoever was in power decided not to veto the quota system.
I don't suspect that they will find it any easier out of the EU, expect gunboats to protect fisheries.
Cornwall were a net recipient of EU funding. I hope they don't get forgotten about in funding rounds now.
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The problem was and is zippy whoever are in power have forgotten about lot's of working people in the UK.
The backlash is here now anti E.U and anti governments.
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>> Cornwall were a net recipient of EU funding. I hope they don't get forgotten about
>> in funding rounds now.
Of course they will be worse off. But don't worry, it won't be their fault. Nothing in history ever has been.
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(Excellent software)
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 15:02
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>> (Excellent software)
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? have I missed something?
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Is it me or are boris and hannan starting (trying) to row back ?
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>> Is it me or are boris and hannan starting (trying) to row back ?
Surprised if Hannan did as he was (IIRC) a dedicated outie. Boris OTOH is (a) a Chameleon and (b) going to have to work out how to get out of this hole of his own party's making.
Wonder what the relationship is now between Tories and their funders in big business?
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>> >> Is it me or are boris and hannan starting (trying) to row back ?
>>
>> Surprised if Hannan did as he was (IIRC) a dedicated outie.
So was i, he was on the bbc saying pretty much; we need to take our time, let's take out time about what we want to do, let's speak to the eu about what our relationship will be etc.
There might be a clip on the bbc about it .
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Spent all day on the phone reassuring major customers that we will stand behind price quotations on current undelivered orders ( we buy in $ and sell in £ ) We'll take a hell of a hit on some of them.
Implications? We've also just withdrawn adverts for two job vacancies and will be looking to save other costs with immediate effect. Given that our costs include people, bread winning people, I'm not especially looking forward to some decisions we may have to take.
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Hannan's latest is 'we never promised to reduce immigration'. This will come as a surprise to many - probably at least 1.3m - who voted Leave primarily on the issue of immigration.
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>> Hannan's latest is 'we never promised to reduce immigration'. This will come as a surprise
>> to many - probably at least 1.3m - who voted Leave primarily on the issue
>> of immigration.
Wow. Have you got a link to that story?
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R4 news this morning. May be too fresh to appear on the BBC News app yet.
Bit of googling suggests he also did some wriggling on Newsnight yesterday about free movement of labour.
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www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12024706/brexit-immigration-effect
He also said it on the bbc before the result was even announced.
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>> >>Cornwall were a net recipient of EU funding. I hope they don't get forgotten about
>> in funding rounds now.
>>
>> = www.westbriton.co.uk/leave-vote-council-seeks-urgent-talks-on-cornwall-eu-fundng/story-29439249-detail/story.html
>>
It is not only Cornwall that will feel the pinch, I drove this road from Fort William to Mallaig yesterday (the A830) it was a single track road with passing places until the EU funded it's improvement. I don't know the cost but it must have been many millions.
A830
goo.gl/maps/BCiTfQ9oLDK2
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>> It is not only Cornwall that will feel the pinch, I drove this road from
>> Fort William to Mallaig yesterday (the A830) it was a single track road with passing
>> places until the EU funded it's improvement. I don't know the cost but it must
>> have been many millions.
>>
>> A830
>>
>> goo.gl/maps/BCiTfQ9oLDK2
Humour me.
Where do you think the EU got the money from to fund that road improvement?
Go on, have a wild guess!
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>> Go on, have a wild guess!
>>
England? :-)
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Sorry to keep posting Neil Woodford blogs, it's beginning to look like an advert, other fund managers are available.
Brexit: Initial thoughts.
goo.gl/P14nsJ
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If there's an upside it is the sudden increase in demand for my services. It would appear that the worry, implications and ramifications may be quite bad for many companies and their employees, but maybe not so awful for consultants.
I wonder if you turkeys will look back on this and have the balls to think"ooops"?
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Curious. The last Woodford article you showed us said that exit would not materially affect the world economy in the long term. This one seems to say that it won't affect the UK economy, in which case he's on his own. It's certainly at odds with the scholarly Oxford Economics paper my VP boss sent me as part of her damage control planning, which offers probabilities of a (very) slight upside to UK GDP and a much larger downside.
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>> Curious. The last Woodford article you showed us said that exit would not materially affect
>> the world economy in the long term. This one seems to say that it won't
>> affect the UK economy, in which case he's on his own.
It refers back to the Capital Economics report they commissioned before the referendum date was set. Prompted by your post I have just reread it, and the UK long term view is directly from that:
woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/
I found it more interesting with hindsight and it seems to say at least as much as the sum of all the campaigning over the last few months! Not to say that it is right.
One thing I've learned over years of costly experience is always to look at the provenance of information. Capital Economics is the consultancy chaired by Roger Bootle, who it has to be said had not been in the pack of pessimistic forecasters. I'm sure Woodford is well aware of that and has put Capital to proof as far as reasonably possible. I doubt that Bootle has prostituted himself to write a propaganda piece at odds with what Capital is saying to its many clients who influence its reputation.
Bootle article (from the Telegraph as it happens) which makes the point that the "consensus" exists crudely because its members have all done the same calculations using shared data and assumptions.
goo.gl/sE4ZHI
Interestingly Bootle actually puts a higher number on the proportion of exports that are linked to EU membership than did Remain (63% vs. 44%, from the Woodford report).
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Brexit: Initial thoughts.
>>
>> goo.gl/P14nsJ
>>
He seems quite laid back about the whole thing.
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Is our country strong enough to survive outside the European Union.
The E.U. referendum was an astonishing moment in our democracy.
What comes next, I do not know.
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"Is our country strong enough to survive outside the European Union."
Have you thought about this question carefully, Fluffo?
It seems to mean that you are considering two alternatives: one, that the UK collapses economically (and in other ways, too, I assume) outside the EU - non-survival would mean eventually being annexed by another country, possibly; two, that it does not and continues to be a viable economy etc.
Is that what you're asking us to discuss?
And what is your own view?
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>> Is our country strong enough to survive outside the European Union.
Very large numbers of ignorant xenophobes think it will be better off. I do hope no one in authority listens to them.
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The ignorant xenophobes haven't a clue, being 'tired of experts' and unable to do their own critical thinking. Of course the UK will survive - or at least the England-and-Wales part will, with the Kingdom being rather less United than before. With a great deal of hard work and a following wind, we might in a few years get back economically to where we are now. Our 'independence' will be a very expensive luxury.
Perhaps LL can help here. He gave us that bizarre rationalization of a Leave vote in terms of getting divorced but staying friends. It made no sense at the time but maybe it's the key to this problem. What's the equivalent here to the sports car we buy with the proceeds of selling the house we can no longer afford to live in?
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It will prove difficult initially but I believe the UK will recover quickly and be even more successful.
EU countries are not going to ignore the fact, for instance, that we buy more from them than they do from us.
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It will prove difficult initially but I believe the UK will recover quickly and be even more successful.
Yes, when all those overseas employers realize they've made a mistake and bring the jobs back from Frankfurt or Dublin - or that they shouldn't have built that new factory in Spain but on Merseyside, close it down and relocate to dear old Blighty?
Your 'recover quickly and be even more successful' is nothing more than Bromp's 'something will turn up' caricature of Outie economic planning - which seems to be an oxymoron.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 18:34
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>> EU countries are not going to ignore the fact, for instance, that we buy more
>> from them than they do from us.
Don't worry, the exchange rate will sort that out. UK exports will be cheap and imporing to the UK will be expensive. And the lack of tax advantages. Or any other advantage to trading with us, really.
'.*********
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I wonder if the 2000 JP Morgan staff will really go to Dublin or Frankfurt?
I am sure things will get worse than they have been in recent years - we were recovering from the last crash. Eventually they will get better. But will it have been worth it? I guess we'll know in many years to come.
I wonder how much negotiation we can get done before we have to trigger clause 50 of the Lisbon treaty. And then we have only 2 years.
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The vote Leave vote is a jump into the darkness.
I believe there will be a technical recession followed by a huge boom.
Already the 10 year gilt yield has fallen to almost 1%.
The talk is interest rates being cut to zero.
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You forgot the inflation. 8/10.
:)
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>>
The talk is interest rates being cut to ... Zero!
(*_*)
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There are thousands and thousands of E.U. directives in U.K law that have to be abolished.
Where do we start.
What is the first E.U. directive to be abolished.
Please enlighten me.
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In general the Directives have been made into UK law. Often they have been gold plated. We don't have to repeal them, and my guess is the vast majority won't be. Apart from anything else they usually mean that the related product or service is compliant for supply to the EU is it meets the UK statutory requirement based on the Directive.
We might as well keep them because we won't be able to export anything to the EU that is not compliant.
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>> We might as well keep them because we won't be able to export anything to
>> the EU that is not compliant.
Indeed. And that'll come as a shock to the Leavers. We will still be subject to EU standards, although we have will NO input into them.
Spiffing.
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>> In general the Directives have been made into UK law. Often they have been gold
>> plated.
Tou mean we have taken the EU minimum requirements and INCREASED them?
Oh dear, another shock for the leavers. Much of the burden has been the UK imposing atuff on itself, not the EU doing it.
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The key word surviving.We want more than surviving,never mind Boris will steer us in the right direction.
Surprising the way Sunderland voted with Nissan being the main employer there.
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>>Surprising the way Sunderland voted with Nissan being the main employer there.
Yep, turkies voting for Christmas, b***** idiots!
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>> Surprising the way Sunderland voted with Nissan being the main employer there.
I said that last night. Swindon (home of Honda) did the same. I wonder what Derby did (Toyota)?
When it comes to investment for future models... I wonder if they will have jobs long term. Maybe we'll need to offer a bribe to Nissan. That of course will be allowed outside of the EU.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 22:47
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Do they have to repay any of the grants if they decide to leave ?
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Which ones? The one from decades ago? I'm just suggesting they might choose not to invest in new models for the UK if we exit the EU.
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Yes i wondered if there is some sort of payback over even decades later. I don't know just asking.
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Nissan did say they had no plans to pack up and go in the event of a Leave vote, which is what prompted Leave to misappropriate their logo for their campaign leaflet. But there's quite a difference between not leaving immediately and continuing to make new investments in the UK. Hard to see why they'd do that now.
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We're in agreement WdB. They just started making the Infinity Q30 there so the Nissan plant will continue for a long time yet.
My employer had said they'd reconsider any investment in the UK if the country leaves the EU. There will be job losses - maybe there would anyway with globalisation. It might just give them an excuse. HP Enterprise and others were getting rid of lots more people too.
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Previous thread closed before I saw several posts. WdB wrote:
>>Did Juncker say that [here would be no further reform deal for the UK]? Or did 'out means out' mean 'don't vote out and then expect to use it as a lever on us for a better deal'?
“British voters have to know that there will be no kind of renegotiation. We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned.â€
Apparently he did say this in the context of a question about a Leave vote so maybe there is some wiggle room, but it's hard to infer - he clearly says Cam "got the maximum" [when we were in].
Of course that doesn't mean it's true - and I have always thought we have more leverage out than in, because meaningful changes offered to UK would have spread quickly to e.g. NL, S & DK.
That picture now looks even more complicated - Brexit weakens the EU and I don't know if it was a made up story but I read something this morning about the possibility of of a NL referendum.
Messy problem for us though, given the UK divisions.
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A unity candidate and one with less baggage than Boris?
The bookies AFAIK have Boris odds on, then May and Gove in that order. George Osborne who must be just as much damaged goods as David Cameron, down at 25-1.
I'd rather not have Johnson or Gove, too divisive and they must both have said plenty that they would be hostages to; and naked ambition is never a good look.
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We all knew Cameron would have to fall on his sword if he lost and the Tory party were ready for it. It is Labour who have the biggest problem - the Parliamentary party have no confidence in Corbyn and want him out, but the more radical grassroots who hold the real power over the leadership are probably still happy with him, being generally well to the left of centre.
I predict a far messier and more b***** battle amongst Labour once the dust settles on the immediate aftermath of the vote.
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>> George Osborne who must be just as much damaged goods as David Cameron, down at 25-1.
>>
Iain Dale has just been covering the outcome to date.
A money guy said he thought George would be out before Cameron.
Iain said when he interviewed George......
"How many in the treasury are working on Brexit ? " Answer "None"
Money guy said that is inexcusable and is ample reason for the boot.
Suggested that George is missing cos all plans in shreds so lets get down to the new plan.
www.lbc.co.uk/iain-dale-on-who-will-be-next-prime-minister-132816
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Bbc is reporting two groups forming in the eu, one wants the uk gone quickly the others are saying we should take our time and make sure we get it right. It seems the leave politicians are doing the same.
I suspect a comprise will try and be brokered by some.
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>> I suspect a comprise will try and be brokered by some.
But we must leave the EU. How good a deal with the EU we get is to be determined. More than 1.25m more voted to leave than to stay. But some might say the turnout was huge at around 72%... it should have been more for such a huge decision.
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I'm pretty sure the art of politics is comprise.
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>> But
>> some might say the turnout was huge at around 72%... it should have been more
>> for such a huge decision.
>>
Presumably the remaining 28% don't care one way or the other.
One interesting stat from a Yougov poll today was that less than 50% of the under 25s bothered to vote. So much for them being passionate about there future in the EU.
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'their', RO'R, 'their'.
Why can't anyone here spell properly? Makes me feel like a schoolmaster.
Please do not reply to this post. It's sure to make everything worse.
:o}
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> One interesting stat from a Yougov poll today was that less than 50% of the
>> under 25s bothered to vote. So much for them being passionate about there future in
>> the EU.
How do they know they know that sort of thing in a secret ballot?
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 18:45
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They know who voted or not. They do not know how they voted.
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Polling clerks note who is voting so that you can't come back second time or as someone else.
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How do they know the age, is it on the voting register?
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>> How do they know they know that sort of thing in a secret ballot?
It's from YouGov, so could just be survey based i.e. a sample of self reporting.
Does anybody know if real information is officially reported?
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Hmm.
FTSE100 closed 3% lower than yesterday's "Remain" outlook close, but CAC40 and DAX down 8% and 7% lower respectively. Reported concern about German exports. Of course the other side of that coin might be that we will actually be able to afford fewer BMWs and LECs.
Probably stretching it a point to use that as evidence of how much the EU needs the UK but it is congruent with a view that it should logically be minded to cooperate for mutual advantage rather than act out of spite.
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For those that voted leave/out.... don't bother reading on.
So if we used to pay X into the EU coffers every weak (not £350m but let us say the net payment is £110m)... this money was paid to the poorer EU countries. That money won't be there in 2 years time (approx) so will it be the case of:
- the countries get less in handouts
or:
- the contributions of the others go up
I ask for an opinion because people are assuming France and Germany will try to stitch us up in any negotiations. I don't think they would because of trade. But the poorer countries in the EU also get a say and they might get less of our money in 2018 so might be annoyed.
I'm not suggesting they should or shouldn't be entitled to cash from the UK.
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An EU official was being interviewed on the evening news and he dismissed the idea of the UK waiting until October to start Clause 50 negotiations*.
The view is, I think, to:
1. Have a two tier EU to keep those that want close integration happy.
2. Keep those that want more of a trade relationship happy also.
3. To punish the UK to stop contagion.
Perhaps the EU will let us have option 2 and suggest a new referendum?
*I totally understand the rationale. We voted to leave. It is a country issue not a political one so why should we be allowed to wait until it suits us. (I don't agree with it though.)
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I'm not sure they can force the issue unless they offer a better deal to go now rather than wait?
There's a lot of water to go under the bridge yet, i think we are totally in political new ground. I don't think you can rule anything out.
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>> An EU official was being interviewed on the evening news and he dismissed the idea
>> of the UK waiting until October to start Clause 50 negotiations*.
>>
>> *I totally understand the rationale. We voted to leave. It is a country issue not
>> a political one so why should we be allowed to wait until it suits us.
>> (I don't agree with it though.)
>>
Surely, it's up to us when we initiate Clause 50 negotiations?
Although our referendum result is more than a hint at where we are going, at the current time we are members of the EU.
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"Surely, it's up to us when we initiate Clause 50 negotiations?"
Precisely !
Surely even the most committed Remainers can understand this lack of control we are suffering under the EU. There can be no doubt now about EU influence on our own decision making.
We as a nation have voted to leave. We decide when we hand in our formal notice to quit.
Who the heck are they to tell us what to do and when ?
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Now we have voted to leave we should get on with it. Let us get the worst over ASAP rather than prolong it. I assume those wanting to leave must agree because you want out of the EU ASAP.
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>>Who the heck are they to tell us what to do and when ?
What are you, in kindergarten? That is just the sort of willy-waving mindless misunderstanding which has got us into this mess.
Its their club and as a nation we don't understand what it value is.
I am sure if we were trying to stay in and someone else dared to want to leave, you would be telling them to sod off immediately.
I just watched a Brit explain how shocked he was that we had voted to Leave. He wanted to Remain but had voted Leave because he didn't think it would matter and his friends would have given him grief had he not.
Leave is an embarrassment. And whilst I am sure it contains some intelligent and sensible people, 90% of the ones I come across are "I'm alright Jack" planks.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 25 Jun 16 at 00:57
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""I'm alright Jack""
That's what Will dB said many posts ago whilst making his case for 'remain' ..... 'I'm alright Jack' - why would I want to rock my boat?
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Your memory must be better than mine, HW. Kindly provide a refreshing link.
The boat is ours, not mine. And now it's got a hole in it. From the inside.
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"Kindly provide a refreshing link."
Oh, blimey, Will, I don't have time to scour through 27 volumes - I'm supposed to be cleaning the house while my wife is helping at her school's sports day. You have a look yourself, you'll see what I mean. While you're about it, see if you come across the one where NoFM is doing a bit of fence-sitting - 'should I do this or should I do that?' He seems to have made up his mind very firmly now that he knows the result.
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Didn't NFM decide to go for Remain after speaking to the Spanish or Portuguese EU ambassador? And I think he was fairly consistent in thinking a narrow Remain vote would have been a good result. Probably quite a lot of people thought that, but one can't vote for it.
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Part of the referendum thread was 'Yes/No and has anything changed/influenced your thinking. I'm pretty sure by that time he was remain/thinking influenced.
He's certainly not a post facto convert.
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>> Surely, it's up to us when we initiate Clause 50 negotiations?
I'm trying to read this in context of LL's amicable divorce analogy.....
Trouble is I can't reconcile 'it'sup to us'with amicable.
You go now or at worst in in the morning. Any longer and it's not a separation.
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Trouble is I can't reconcile 'it'sup to us'with amicable.
>>
>> You go now or at worst in in the morning. Any longer and it's not
>> a separation.
>>
I don't think it's so straight cut, we are dealing with multiple parties rather than one. Have a look at the Joshua rosenburg article i linked to re taking our time
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>> I don't think it's so straight cut, we are dealing with multiple parties rather than
>> one. Have a look at the Joshua rosenburg article i linked to re taking our
>> time
If we're looking for compromise and reconciliation I absolutely agree.
But if (cf Westpig and others) you're determined to go whatever then insistence on choosing your own time looks more like a power play move.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 21:46
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If we're looking for compromise and reconciliation I absolutely agree.
>>
I think the politicians that are likely to be speaking to the eu are likely to be doing just that, despite the vote. I think back to 3/4 of MPs wanting to remain. They'll be a vote in parliament before we go, i think they'll backstop any move via the justification of a general election.
>> But if (cf Westpig and others) you're determined to go whatever then insistence on choosing your own time looks more like a power play move.
I think there are many that way, however it'll be MPs that okay it in the end and i don't think they'll vote for it. Any question of listening to the people will be swerved via a general election.
I honestly think we are on the precipice with only one foot on the cliff, but we haven't jumped yet.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 22:26
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>> I honestly think we are on the precipice with only one foot on the cliff, but we haven't jumped yet.
No we jumped last night. I can't see how we go against the popular vote. We will leave the EU. We have to because that is what the majority want.
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No we jumped last night. I can't see how we go against the popular vote. We will leave the EU. We have to because that is what the majority want.
People vote for all sorts of reasons, tactical, protest etc, same as any election however its magnified in this vote. Like I said upthread a general election will give the MPs a popular mandate to block what they think isn't in our interests. It'll probably sold as this is a starting block for more negotiations then when a GE is called and most are not in favour of leaving we'll bodge some comprOmise. I think they'll be enough politicians inside europe, in the eu and in the HoC to get a compromise.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 23:09
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I can't see how parliament will overturn this - we voted to leave. That is now what I expect to happen. That was the choice taken by the referendum.
If we overturn it then that has much wider implications for the UK.
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It could however two years is along time, people change their minds, focus on other things, move on etc.
I think an election could cover off any questions of the people's will. I think they'll at least try and block it because they'll be freshly voted with the will of the people etc etc. I also think there's enough buyers remorse to make it (just) about doable. Of course others will disagree.
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I love the hypocrisy of politicians.
Last night Farage said that if the vote was close then he would call for another referendum.
Well I suppose 16m to 17m is close, so erm, can we have another referendum please?
:-)
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It would be worth it! Especially as rather few UK expatriate workers in the EU are registered to vote….
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>> Priceless !
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>> www.itv.com/goodmorningbritain/nigel-farage-labels-350m-nhs-promise-a-mistake
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What an utter, utter t***.
How long before the mindless idiots who listen to this man finally work it out. Surely even the thickos will get there eventually?
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From the Guardian, here but copied as it is a sidebar in case it is moved:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/brexit-scramble-for-european-passports
What is article 50?
"This is a clause in the Lisbon Treaty that sets out the legal process for a country notifiying the European Union it intends withdraw. Once notification is given, negotiations must be concluded within two years, with any extension requiring the agreement of all EU members.
During the process, the UK remains a member of the EU, but if talks are not concluded after two years, and no extension is granted, Britain reverts to world trade organisation terms, requiring tariffs to be imposed.
Michael Gove has argued the UK can delay notification since the referendum was advisory. But some EU states have legal advice disagreeing."
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So we have two years and thats it.
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>> So we have two years and that's it.
No. We have two years from when notice is given.
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Then we should delay the notice.
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Oh FFS where have you been - this was news months and months ago - and so typical of many that voted out without the facts.
Bit like telling your landlord that you are leaving and then being peed off when you can't stay past the notice period!
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Why do you bother with the idiot?
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Economist Marios Clerides said that the British referendum in which voters decided to leave the European Union was a blow for the EU, as well as its rules and its institutions.
“It is the worst damage ever done to Europe,â€
“The Brexit sent the message that member states can enter and leave the EU as they wish,†Clerides told the Cyprus Mail on Friday.
“What does it mean for a member state that you are bound by fiscal rules, when you can leave anytime you want?â€
cyprus-mail.com/2016/06/24/economist-says-brexit-worst-ever-damage-europe/
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England play Iceland in the Euro Championships on Monday night (The tournament being held in France for those who don't follow the beautiful game). It will be interesting to see the reaction of the mainly French crowd to the England team, and whether the out vote will lead to any violence between fans outside the stadium.
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"It will be interesting to see the reaction of the mainly French crowd to the England team..."
One of the papers today (can't remember which) claimed there were more French people against the EU than British.
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I only know one French person. A highly intelligent ( compared to me) multi lingual business consultant in her 50s who has worked all over Europe, been seconded to intelligence agencies, and is pleased that the vote was for 'out'.
She has never owned her own business, but been head hunted a few times by these multi national corporations and sees the bigger picture on a long term basis. Maybe she has foreseen, in her opinion, having worked the best part of a lifetime within several European bases, the ungainly mess that the EU has become, and will continue in that vein in a slow downward spiral.
Maybe she is completely wrong, but as a friend, I value her judgement over that of the shouty less qualified 'outers' many of whom appear sadly be xenophobic racists.
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EU IN/OUT Referendum Discussion - Vol 26 - legacylad
