***** This thread is now closed, please CLICK HERE to go to Volume 27 *****
==============================================================
On-going Debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 16:45
|
Newcastle have declared a slightly disconcerting result for the Remain campaign. A win for Remain certainly but not as great as expected.
I have a sense of foreboding.
Sunderland should declare soon
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 00:16
|
|
Worrying that Sunderland declared the way they did considering Nissan account for so many jobs (for now) and export 70% of the cars produced to the EU. Well they used to.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 00:21
|
Mackems 60:40 brexit
Probably relying on Scotland and London for the 'right' result...
Last edited by: Lygonos on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 00:21
|
|
Swindon, home of Honda 55:45 brexit.
|
Basildon a big vote for Leave
I
|
I think we now have to concede that Leave have won
A sad day for the UK in my opinion. I hope things don't turn out as bad as I fear.
|
Fruitcakes taken over the factory, Xenophobes excited?
Can I join the queue to go to Scotland.
The blackest day in my memory. market makers will make a fortune.
|
A momentous day for the UK whatever happens now. Watched the Beeb 'til 0230 and saw which way it was going in the early stages. Just got up and put the news on.
Don't know how the local vote here turned out. Will Dave put his ticket in now, I wonder ?
Interesting days ahead.
|
|
£80 for a £20 bet on Brexit with Ladbrokes, what's not to like? Celebrating tonight with a bottle of *English* champagne.
|
|
Well that was a turn up for the books. Very few people i think saw that coming. I was genuinely surprised when I woke up this morning.
|
Staffs Moorlands was 65*35% in favour of Leave.
Buy petrol after the £ falls to $1.34 10% price rise +
|
|
They really don't know what they've just done do they? Black days ahead.
|
>> They really don't know what they've just done do they? Black days ahead.
My thought exactly Runfer. Utterly depressing voxpop on 5 live with a roofer in Wigan. I don't deny him the right to hold the views he did but their roots in reality were non-existent. Asked about the economy it was the old 'something will turn up' line,
|
My thought exactly Runfer. Utterly depressing voxpop on 5 live with a roofer in Wigan.
>> I don't deny him the right to hold the views he did but their roots
>> in reality were non-existent. Asked about the economy it was the old 'something will turn up' line,
>>
I think it's safe to say many people who hold such views feel that they have (as the Americans would say) no skin in the game.
I guess that's a challenge beyond this vote.
|
|
Unenlightened, clueless nation of belligerent, racist reprobates.
|
Perhaps it's karma: for every London 2012, when we show our best face to the world, we have to have one of these. This is a big one, though. Now it's over to the 51.9% to demonstrate that this is anything but a catastrophic act of national self-sabotage. Sterling at a 30-year low is not a great start.
Welcome to Britain's Isolation Day.
|
|
Just seen the split of votes across england. There was only London that voted remain,that i could see anyway.
|
|
Some other big cities too Sooty including Manchester, Liverpool and Sheffield but not by a big enough margin to carry the day nationally.
|
Right missed that one, just had the local news on. Seems only three areas voted remain and they were all cities as well. Possibly another split.
Rumours that the PM is going to resign.
|
|
Said he'll be gone by October.
|
>> Some other big cities too Sooty including Manchester, Liverpool and Sheffield but not by a
>> big enough margin to carry the day nationally.
>>
Just had another look at it by region. 7/11 voted leave, it's a surprise for sure. I guess the question for politicians is why such a split?
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 10:05
|
The Turkeys have voted for Christmas
What a bunch of idoits dark times ahead. Extremely worrying for the country, the economy and the future.
Sad day
|
|
Can I be the first to wish WdB a very Good Morning?!!! ;-)
|
>> The Turkeys have voted for Christmas
>>
>> What a bunch of idiots dark times ahead.
I'm seeing a lot of this and it's not helpful, or fair for that matter. Some people only like democracy when they win.
However.
It's a poor way to run a country. Cameron's tactical decsion to promise a referendum, in order to placate his own sceptics and to defend his votes from UKIP to get the Conservatives elected again, has had big, unintended, strategic consequences.
48% of those who voted are now furious with the rest. It's a mess. England and Wales voted Leave, Scotland and NI voted Remain.
On a 72.2% turnout, only 37.5% of the electorate voted Leave and 34.7% Remain, which is a very long way off an absolute majority. A clear result either way would have been far better than the result we have.
There should never have been a referendum, but once it came it was Remain's to lose. A clean campaign would probably have won easily. Instead we had a patronising and insulting campaign of half-truths and lies by omission - propaganda like that might work in a regime where there is no-one to correct the lies, but it can't work here.
Cameron & Juncker raised the stakes this week with their "no going back" statements and Juncker's "there will be no more reform if Britain votes Remain" was just stupid given the way the wind was blowing.
Things now need to settle. I hope Cameron or his successor is in no hurry to trigger Article 50 before the initial shock and anger can die down and some closed door conversations (there will be many) have taken place to identify options for going forward.
Cameron and Blair can start a club for former PMs whose hubris has severely damaged the country.
|
>> On a 72.2% turnout, only 37.5% of the electorate voted Leave and 34.7% Remain, which is a very long way off an absolute majority
Then why no concern over First Past the Post system? This the first time ALL votes have been counted at least.
Current govt. got only ~33% or so votes of electorates. Why that was considered fair system then?
Turnout is irrelevant. If people can't be bothered to vote, they have no right to criticize the outcome.
|
|
I can't disagree movi, but it's still a recipe for wide disgruntlement - IIRC we had that from the SNP after the Scottish referendum.
|
Correct. This is why I said earlier it matters how winning side will handle the concern of losing side.
All big revolutions caused some initial turmoil. Things should take its turn in due time. I think as the win came as shock to outies as well, everyone needs bit of time to digest the facts.
I do not think EU can survive for long in its current form. There will be now demands for referendum in other countries.
The only thing that is constant is change :o)
|
"I recall after the Scottish independence referendum, it was said that the late surge to stay part of the union came about through the votes of quiet people who didn't want to attract the insults of the independence-fanatics.
Mr Cameron is looking distinctly worried at the moment, and I wonder if he recognises the possibility that the referendum will be swayed by a host of very reasonable people who wish to leave but have stayed quiet, not wishing to be insulted (swivel-eyed/racist/scumbag/xenophobes etc) by the shouty remain fanatics."
Looks like what I said in vol 24 has come to pass.
So, CG, it guess it's a pint with the dead cat. Let me know when you're coming down here, and I'll buy you a pint. The only bitterness will be in the hops of the IPA.
;-)
|
On the positive side, possibly a good time to buy some equities. I sold a lot of my portfolio a few months ago anticipating some turmoil in the markets and am now buying back those exact same shares ( multinational oil & minerals) at a considerably cheaper price. I don't think the fundamentals have changed much, if at all. Everything just gets dragged down en masse.
I assume that people with large, managed private pensions will have taken a hit and it will be interesting to see how long they take to recover.
I put the max into a technology PEP in 2000 and it was still down 40% when I transferred it earlier this year.
|
|
Anyone on benefits need to be very worried now. Bye Bye Pension Credits - Working Tax Credits will be gone now now. All those nasty cuts to disabled benefits will kick in...some turkeys will have voted for that particular Christmas.
|
Working Tax Credit already going as it's subsumed into Universal Credit with effective cuts in payments. Cuts to Child Tax too as the 2 child rule comes in. And ESA cut from £105 to £73 from April 17 for those in Work Related Activity Group. Contrary to Minister's spin this is not people capable of work, it will hit a lot of seriously ill people.
While the latter are 'new claims only' the WTC change is not and will bite hard. The changes announced in Autumn merely kicked the can down the road.
Will be interesting to see how the political fallout continues. There will be some Tories who want no part of the above and a Johnson/Gove government. Similarly there are Labourites who disagree with/despair of Corbyn.
Time for a new SDP?
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 09:20
|
|
I agree a major shake-up of political parties. The moderate centre has nowhere to go at the moment
|
A big V sign for like-minded Brexiteers, and a v sign of the 'other' kind for the likes of Alanović and his Beest.
:-D
|
|
We know you're pleased with yourselves, Dog. You have a huge amount to do before you can be proud of yourselves.
|
>>You have a huge amount to do before you can be proud of yourselves.
I can't do it all by myself Will :) and I sincerely hope you'll do your bit in helping to make Great Britain a successful independent country during the coming years.
|
What happens to our MEPs now? I have no idea how many the UK has, nor indeed the name of my own MEP. Presumably they will be given longer than 24 hours to clear their desks, probably for the duration of our exit from the EU which could take a few years.
I bet they fare better than the staff at BHS
|
I'm not gloating - just very surprised, as I truly thought that Remain would edge it.
Perhaps, for a change, the postal votes cast a good few days ago when Leave were polling well, worked in our favour.
First thing I've done this morning is to remove all the Vote Leave posters from the car & the house.
Triumphalism is definitely not needed now: It was a damned close run thing.
Last edited by: Roger. on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 08:58
|
>> First thing I've done this morning is to remove all the Vote Leave posters from the car & the house.
>> Triumphalism is definitely not needed now: It was a damned close run thing.
Probably a good move on your part - you don't want your windows smashing.
|
>>Triumphalism is definitely not needed now
Oh, I don't know...
|
|
I'll do what I have to do to make the best of it, Dog - as will the rest of the economically productive population. But I wouldn't have chosen to do it with my economic productivity tied behind my back.
|
Just been speaking to the CEO of one of Britain's larger High Street retailers. He has to pay for much of his stock in €.
The exchange rate implications are devastating.
Prices will have to rise which in turn will lead to fewer sales and jobs will be under threat. He has this morning issued an immediate embargo on recruitment.
|
"The exchange rate implications are devastating."
It certainly is Runfer, very much. Since this all happened in a few months, the pound has continued to fall against the Zloty. And of course, I earn in pounds and spend in zlots. My income has taken a hit and I'm sure it will continue to.
Yesterday I bought 200 Euros as I'm driving over next week. If only I'd been a bit more savvy, I could have change another £2k into Euros and made about €180 - the money I've lost overnight.
Last edited by: BiggerBadderDave on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 09:40
|
Not a question of not being savvy BBD. If the vote had gone the other way wouldn't the exchange rate have worked in your favour?
It would have taken a brave man to buy lots of euros from sterling before the event. A few friends of mine bought £2/£3k of euros a few months ago... They overwinter in Spain, and took a gamble.
|
This is still the beginning of the beginning, and I would expect a period of relatively high volatility, but the Armageddon story was always going to be overdone.
As I write, the Euro is at 1.24/GBP, around 6% lower than yesterday's close but well above the average for 2013/14/15. The FTSE100 has recovered over half the initial loss and is now 3.5% down on the day, at about the level of last September's low and 6% up on February's low. Hardly uncharted territory.
Not funny of course, and I would not by any means rule out a much bigger drop this year, but that had been prognosticated by some regardless of the result - an immediate example of the fact that we may find it difficult to isolate and quantify the effects of the decision to leave.
I hope people will start to calm down soon. A good friend posted "Gullible fools" (rather more colourfully than that) on Facebook this morning; another "fear and bigotry beats bravery and solidarity".
This is so polarised.
Well observed - www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36605656
The thing about democracy is you can't really argue with the result. If it does go horribly wrong - by no means a foregone conclusion - history may blame Cameron, who cynically promised a referendum to calm his own party and to get elected.
I hope we never have another - it has been a very nasty experience all round.
The result whilst it is 'binding' is in a sense also a mandate to look for something close to a halfway house rather than a full separation. Aside from the Remainers, I'd guess that quite a few Leavers would prefer that anyway - but it wasn't possible to vote 50:50 or 70:30.
When I asked my daughter her opinion some weeks ago she did not express a strong opinion. She is now very disappointed. Cambridge City voted 74-26 in favour of Remain, an almost exact reversal of Fenland as it turned out.
I was annoyed with Cameron for announcing, albeit in advance, his resignation this morning which seemed to exacerbate the market turmoil - with a few hours hindsight, maybe it was better to get it over with.
P.S - FTSE now up to 2.5% down - GBP up a tad more but seems stuck in the 1.24's.
|
Another excellent post from Manatee.
Can I nominate him as the site's official EU referendum/Brexit commentator?
|
>> Can I nominate him as the site's official EU referendum/Brexit commentator?
No. That's me.
I note that my instruction to vote 'in' has been widely disobeyed. Soon - when they least expect it - these frivolous idiots shall experience the wrath of Coussine!
:o}
|
One of the worst aspects of the aftermath of this referendum will be the bitterness left behind.
Both sides are to blame in this. The stoking of passions of the basest kind has contributed to massive resentment which would have been felt by the "losers" whichever side "won".
Anyone who is feeling pleased with themselves today deserves a kick up the backside. Anyone who voted Leave and thought they were entering the promised land is a deluded fool. It will be more like some years in the wilderness.
In case anyone is wondering, I voted Leave - with some awareness of the difficulty and magnitude of the decision. I know exactly why I voted the way I did, and it had nothing to do with economics or immigration - and little to do with the day-to-day running of the EU.
Anyone who thinks it will be plain sailing from now on is an idiot.
|
You obviously have faith that after years in the wilderness you will encounter the sunny uplit plains that will make the years of pain worthwhile.
Some of us don't and its a shame we have to follow you.
The problem now is that those who voted remain and were broadly happy with the the status quo will feel that they will be working hard to regain an economic prosperity that has been carelessly discarded. This decision will prove to be endlessly divisive.
|
>> One of the worst aspects of the aftermath of this referendum will be the bitterness
>> left behind.
>>
>> Both sides are to blame in this. The stoking of passions of the basest kind
>> has contributed to massive resentment which would have been felt by the "losers" whichever side
>> "won".
>>
>>
I pretty much agree with your view, and voting.
A referendum is a dangerous and largely untried extension of the British democratic process, and almost inevitably has the two-fold effect of creating division and underming the role of parliament.
In its way the election of Jeremy Corbyn by a similar extra-parliamentary process has likewise created division within the Labour party, perhaps explaining their spineless engagement in the EU debate.
It's ironic therefore that the swing towards Exit was largely attributable to traditional labour voters. But that's what you get when you transfer power from safe hands like Tories and the Establishment and pass it to the mob. :)
|
>> It's ironic therefore that the swing towards Exit was largely attributable to traditional labour voters.
>> But that's what you get when you transfer power from safe hands like Tories and
>> the Establishment and pass it to the mob. :)
Smiley noted, but Cameron called it - as I have said elsewhere, for his own and party tactical reasons.
Now we have a right royal mess, with 37% of the electorate having voted Leave, Wales and England divided from Scotland and NI, and half the population hating the other half this morning.
|
> Smiley noted, but Cameron called it - as I have said elsewhere, for his own
>> and party tactical reasons.
I think if it wasn't him it would have been someone else down the line. The result wasn't inevitable but I think a vote was.
|
Well I hope all Nissan, Toyota and Honda staff (for example) that voted leave know what they have potentially done to themselves and us. Sunderland has done well from Nissan. I doubt there's long term planning there now - unless our deal with the EU is similar to what we have now including free movement of people.
We've had a stable economy for a while (even considering the blips) but long term investment for companies operating in the EU is about to dry up.
A sad day for the UK. I can see a Scottish referendum soon.
Last edited by: rtj70 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 09:20
|
>> I can see a Scottish referendum soon.
>>
They will tread carefully on that one. It's by no means certain that SNP would reverse the result of the last one. They might be making a mistake by bracketing the two causes together.
The push for further referendums is more likely to come from the continent. There is pressure for "Nexit" in the Netherlands,
Quite a witty reference to the domino theory :)
|
Just looked at my Facebook page and just wish that the referendum had been conducted purely amongst my 'Friends' and 'Friends of Friends'. I have a fairly strictly controlled approach to social media, but with a good mix of UK and European contacts. Good to see that my personal views are 100% echoed by my choice of friends.
I list some typical comments;
Saddened and....
Haven't felt this ashamed to be British since I learnt about colonialism at school.
Who the hell voted Brexit ? They've remained very quiet.
Who voted brexit ? Despair !
and of course saddened by this
We're trying to explain the news to our children, whilst feeling utterly sick
Maybe London should stay in the EU?
So utterly shocked and saddened and worried for my children that I'm unable to think straight. We've just given up on stability and unity
Right, time to get the kids up and start apologising for everything.
All from different people.
Just wish i could get to Kings Cross... www.facebook.com/operationcroissant/?fref=nf
Oh well, back to France in 3 weeks.
Last edited by: sherlock47 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 09:23
|
I admit that I didn't expect Leave to win! I had to rub my eyes in the morning to ensure I am reading it right.
But I am happy. This is triumph of passion against establishment. Yes there will be pain in short term but we shall be living in a great country in the longer run.
|
>>
>> But I am happy. This is triumph of passion against establishment. Yes there will be
>> pain in short term but we shall be living in a great country in the
>> longer run.
>>
establishment = economic reality
great country for who? not those needing to earn a living that's for sure.
|
I must admit a bit shocked but there you are that is a referendum for you.
Lets' hope it does not affect our economy to much because people at the lower end including pensioners will always pay the price.
|
Lets' hope it does not affect our economy to much because people at the lower
>> end including pensioners will always pay the price.
>>
Interesting that according to the news they are the people in the majority that voted for leave.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 09:45
|
"This is triumph of passion against establishment."
"...we shall be living in a great country in the longer run."
Ugh! I just hate this kind of stuff. This is what Trumpism is made of.
|
Ugh! I just hate this ['great country'] kind of stuff. This is what Trumpism is made of.
Bravo, FP. But anyone who demurs is 'talking this country down'.
I wonder how many Leave voters are looking at the mess this morning and thinking, 'This has all got a bit out of hand'. I wonder whether it's about 1.3 million.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 11:17
|
Fallout at work. Just out of an emergency conference call.
One customer has had orders cancelled already from their largest German customers on the basis that they want security of supply. This customers represented about 40% of their turnover. The businesses is not viable without this turnover. The MD is asking for help to keep the business going but it looks like administrators will have to be appointed. His, mainly manual workers all said that they were going to vote out - turkeys voting for Christmas! About 25 people will be impacted straight away - laid off.
Another customer's business model is to buy branded goods cheaply in the EU and sell them here at a mark up - but cheaper than official sources. It is a large employer - 200+ staff. Their business model ceases to exist as the copyright holders of the goods have made it clear that the moment that they can prevent this channel they will (see Levi vs Tesco).
Credit insurance companies have been sending us new limits from 8AM. Most limits are lower which means that to we have to reduce lending to customers.
|
Now there is not much point arguing whether BREXIT is good or bad. It is now the reality so better everyone accept this fact (I'm sure if remainers had won they would have said the same thing to leavers).
We should all now think instead how to make it work for us.
|
Is Britain leaving only EU or EEC as well?
|
>> Is Britain leaving only EU or EEC as well?
>>
This whole mess will presumably be slightly less damaging if we remain within the EFTA i.e. be like Norway (hopefully without their cost of living) . Maybe that's the least worst option.
|
Why start a new thread specially for post-referendum discussion, and then lock it as soon as the referendum is over?
Wouldn't it make more sense to lock the old thread and continue in the new thread created specially?
|
>> Why start a new thread specially for post-referendum discussion, and then lock it as soon
>> as the referendum is over?
It was a thread started after all the other ones, so wasn't "new", and should have been incorporated within the original ones discussing the referendum.
>> Wouldn't it make more sense to lock the old thread and continue in the new thread created specially?
There were 2 discussions running side by side, both discussing and repeating the same thing. That one was full, this one wasn't, so any replies over the 100 on there got moved here, along with a note there telling people to continue here.
|
>> Is Britain leaving only EU or EEC as well?
So, like another of the vocal outies on here, you lack a full understanding of the bodies/institutions you oppose.
Part of the problem that's seen us in this mess.
|
>> Part of the problem that's seen us in this mess.
Ah still denial.... perhaps remain campaign could have explained this to everyone?
Anyway, can someone please answer my question?
|
There is no EEC any more, Movi; Maastricht in 1991 converted it into the EU. I think you're confusing it with the European Economic Area, which includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. The UK has no option at the moment to join that, but if it applies post-exit it will have to pay a membership fee and accept free movement of labour.
All this was made very clear by the Remain campaign. Where were you?
|
>>
>> Anyway, can someone please answer my question?
>>
I think what the smug Remainers are saying is that although we originally joined the EEC this was then subsumed into the EU, so no longer exists. So without being consulted again we find ourselves in a different organisation and the old one has been withdrawn.
It's a bit like opening a savings account - the return initially looks good, but after a while they sneakily switch it to a different kind which amazingly doesn't pay so much.
When you try to query this you are condescendingly told you should have read the terms and conditions properly.
|
I think there's a fair point in there somewhere, Cliff. But Maastricht was well publicized and debated at the time, and much was made of the opt-outs the Major government secured for the UK - of which the one on the Social Chapter was removed by the Blair government, which had an electoral mandate to do so.
This campaign has shown that international relationships and treaties are too complex and their implications too great to be reduced to a simple yes-no question. Babies and bathwater keep coming to mind.
|
>> >> Part of the problem that's seen us in this mess.
>>
>> Ah still denial.... perhaps remain campaign could have explained this to everyone?
>>
>> Anyway, can someone please answer my question?
>>
There is no such thing as the EEC, which makes Bromp's point rather.
|
|
Most of the Country obviously wanted out, it was mainly the big cities where the affluent work and live that gave "in" any hope! (Scotland have wanted to feed off us for years, that's why they voted "in", now we are coming out, they will want rid of us, same with N.I. Time they stood on their own two feet, but they haven't the bottle.) This was England saying to the Tories you've not listened to us, maybe you will now. You can blame Cameron and Osbourne for this, not the good everyday people of England and Wales whom they have disregarded for years whilst lining their own Fat-cat pockets. Now they're going to take a huge hit for a few years, well, welcome to the everyday life of Ordinary Folk!
|
"This was England saying to the Tories you've not listened to us, maybe you will now."
Sorry - I think this is a hopelessly naive interpretation. As naive, in fact, as the information seeping out of the Labour Party that Corbyn is being blamed by some for the result of the referendum.
As is your assumption that the rich live in the cities and voted Remain, while the everyday people don't and didn't.
|
>>As is your assumption that the rich live in the cities and voted Remain, while the everyday people don't and didn't.
Then why is the Map of England Red with Discontent? - if everything was fine and dandy it would have been Blue!
|
>>
>> Sorry - I think this is a hopelessly naive interpretation.
There are usually lots of naive interpretations explaining most complex events, and all of them have some truth. In this case:
1) real Tories suspicious that Cameron is trying to turn the party into New Liberal
2) liberals hating cuts, austerity, and Tories in general
3) real labour supporters, who are actually deeply conservative, distrustful of EU inroads into traditional British practices
4) Tory mavericks who are suspicious of any authority pushing them around
5) general annoyance all round with the endless parade of pontificating experts telling everyone what to do, but the waiting lists still get longer, etc etc.
In short, it was a multi-purpose protest by lots of different people who felt they were being ignored, and that somehow the EU was at the bottom of it.
Cameron was an idiot to ignore this, especially as he had recently won a landslide majority and was ideally placed to actually address these feelings. Instead of which he allowed himself to be manoeuvred into heading a campaign which I suspect did not really chime with his deeper instincts.
|
|
Plus of course a genuine core of sensible reasoned economic and social arguments, just as there was in the Remain case. But those don't win elections. It's the rather unpredictable floating voter and his prejudices that count.
|
Cameron won a hairline majority - that he probably didn't want - partly by dint of offering the referendum to keep Ukip from letting in Labour. Instead, poor Labour leadership allowed Ukip to steal their vote instead and let in the Tories, obliging Cameron to keep his promise - and we know the rest.
Once in, he had very little room for manoeuvre, and it's probably only Labour's continued weakness under Corbyn, and the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, that have kept him going this long without a crisis. It's hard to see what he could have offered to the extra-urban working classes who seem to have been the pivotal group here; it should have been Labour that brought them to Remain, and I think Corbyn has questions to answer on why that didn't happen.
|
Now there is not much point arguing whether BREXIT is good or bad.
You're right for once, Movi. It's self-evidently bad, which will only become more apparent as the days go by. Zippy's account is one example of things that will be happening in businesses all over the UK. I've met our finance people here, who are already under pressure to provide analyses on all our revenues in GBP and EUR, because we report in USD and this will damage our results for the year. That, ultimately, will mean job losses here too.
I suppose unemployment is a form of independence.
|
Anybody on this forum actually live in Boston ?
|
>> Anybody on this forum actually live in Boston ?
>>
>>
I'm not a million miles away, why?
|
I wondered if someone knew the mood of the average indigenous Joe (someone in a non-managerial position who doesn't have multiple global holidays a year or dabble in the stockmarket) in recent years?
With regard to factors that importantly impact their daily lives, how do they feel as a result of the alleged 'swamping' of their town with migrants from the EU?
I've never been to that town - it's a genuine enquiry.
|
>> With regard to factors that importantly impact their daily lives, how do they feel as
>> a result of the alleged 'swamping' of their town with migrants from the EU?
Ground covered by 'vox pop' on radio I mentioned above - a roofer from Wigan. Said his daughter was paying for private rental of a BTL property on a Council Estate. Meanwhile 'foreigners' were securing tenancies through the council.
Here in Northampton there is pressure on housing too, incomes of £20k plus reportedly necessary to get over letting agent's threshold. And that in a designated growth town that has actually expanded massively in 25yrs we've lived here. Although there are large numbers of migrants there's a correlation/causation conundrum to which the answer may not be the obvious one.
|
The whole area is very rural and conservative, in both senses of the word. For example, our neighbouring area has had a Conservative mp for something like 158 out of the 160 years. There is a feeling is that they see no advantage to the eu, the only change they see is eastern european workers coming in fairly large numbers. Perhaps not in the town itself, but many of the villages are a bit like the land that time forgot for various reasons. Transport links are poor at best, for example there is still the grammar school system the only county wide version still left.
In a city it perhaps wouldn't be an issue, but as i said up thread they've very little skin in the game. People on here know all about stock markets and the eu rules that relate to trade etc first hand as part of their job. Around here there are no multi national employers with the chance to see the world and see first hand the effects of legislation, stock markets, currency fluctuations. All that sort of thing is for other people. You may as well be speaking Chinese.
The advantages of the eu may be there but there's a feeling it's done nothing at all for them. The biggest thing the eu has done for the town is bring lots of people in from other countries nothing else.
I think the feeling is that the jam has been piled up rather than spread around. When you have people who think they've nothing to lose, they are more ready to take a punt, as per brompt's roofer ' something will turn up'
Last edited by: sooty123 on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 14:51
|
Well this must be the situation in loads of towns all over the country.
I know two couples who live close to/within Norwich. Goodness knows they work hard and for long hours, but their hourly payrate is such that they have told me they are resigned to never being able to BUY a house, even though their ever-upwardly creeping rents cost more than a mortgage would, and also result in all their other possessions having to be bought on HP.
@Bromptonaut: Is the non-obvious answer that Council Houses should never have been allowed to be sold off in the first place?
In the late 1980s a work colleague of mine was still living in a 'student' house, which the landlord put up for sale. My colleague wanted to get a mortgage to buy the place himself (which calculations indicated he could afford to do). I may be wrong, but I could swear that all the lenders he approached told him that he couldn't have a mortgage while there were tenants in place: You had to own a property outright before you were allowed to let it out (?)
So who had the bright idea of BTL ?
Another couple I know were born in and live in Leicester. They both work, but are very poor. They have been on the Council House waiting list for years. Not so long ago, 50 new Council Dwellings were being built not far from them. Before the dwellings were even completed, the couple enquired whether this additional stock might mean they would move up the waiting list ladder and possibly even be available to them? No: They were told that every one of them was already earmarked for people from Somalia. (ie Wigan roofer may be telling the truth?)
By definition, half the working population must earn less than the average salary. If houses are unaffordable to buy, and there are no council houses, and there are burgeoning numbers of greedy private landlords, many people will feel their lives are desperate.
But if they live in areas that then get an influx of people who are willing to work for even lower (illegal) rates of pay, and BTL landlords can extend their portfolios by converting more houses to multiple-occupancy and netting even more in rents,
one could understand why the indigenous people go beyond being desperate and become nihilistic.
|
>> Well this must be the situation in loads of towns all over the country.
No doubt as the result shows. But there's something about the area that lends itself to be the highest vote for leave.
one could understand why the indigenous people go beyond being desperate and become nihilistic.
I think that's the issue that is at the heart of this vote. The challenge for those in power in the future is to make sure people don't feel so helpless and such at odds with other parts of the country. I think it'll help the feeling of being left behind that many feel.
|
>> Now there is not much point arguing whether BREXIT is good or bad. It is
>> now the reality so better everyone accept this fact (I'm sure if remainers had won
>> they would have said the same thing to leavers).
>>
>> We should all now think instead how to make it work for us.
>>
Or time to sit back and enjoy a little schadenfreude perhaps? Be good to remind Leavers that this is what they wanted at every opportunity, can start when petrol and food goes up in price, churlish to point it out to those losing their jobs though.
Is Boris back-pedalling a bit now ? I see Cameron's actions as entirely logical, he called Leave's bluff and lost, if I was him (and of course I never would be) I couldn't invoke Article 50 as the immense act of national self-harm it will be, I respect him for going, Leave need to own this now, it is their fault.
Serious question, what scapegoat to choose next, can the EU still be the bogeyman beyond the UK's exit, maybe the Scots, the Intellectuals, the Experts, anyone but yourselves of course......
|
"... time to sit back and enjoy a little schadenfreude perhaps?"
Bitter, IC?
Time to let it go. The unpleasantness of the campaigns was unhelpful at the time, but certainly bitterness fulfils no good purpose now.
|
>> "... time to sit back and enjoy a little schadenfreude perhaps?"
>>
>> Bitter, IC?
>>
>> Time to let it go. The unpleasantness of the campaigns was unhelpful at the time,
>> but certainly bitterness fulfils no good purpose now.
>>
No, not bitter, sad, really sad - an honest answer. Of course I'll be pleased if it turns out well, but I am convinced it won't. I hope I'm wrong.
|
>> Fallout at work. Just out of an emergency conference call.
>>
>> One customer has had orders cancelled already from their largest German customers on the basis
>> that they want security of supply.
It would be interesting to hear what happens. The immediate impact should be that the firm is able to supply its customer up to 6% cheaper (depending on the imported content of the product). Maybe the Germans are in the process of negotiating the price change? Nothing else will happen for at least two years, so why isn't the customer rubbing his hands? Likely there is more to it of course.
>> Another customer's business model is to buy branded goods cheaply in the EU and sell
>> them here at a mark up - but cheaper than official sources. It is a
>> large employer - 200+ staff. Their business model ceases to exist as the copyright holders
>> of the goods have made it clear that the moment that they can prevent this
>> channel they will (see Levi vs Tesco).
He has a problem already then with a 6% rise in cost of sales - but he has always been a hostage to the exchange rate and the current rate is actually about the same as it was in the first half of 2014.
I do not say that he is a case in point, I don't know the business and a 6% cost rise is a real issue, but Brexit will be blamed for a lot of bad things that would have happened anyway, just as the EU has been (and been blamed for some things that didn't even happen).
>>
>> Credit insurance companies have been sending us new limits from 8AM. Most limits are lower
>> which means that to we have to reduce lending to customers.
Nasty. I don't think trade credit insurance existed on its current scale until relatively recently and it can be a fickle friend - raking in the premiums when risks are perceived to be low, and taking the ball away when things look dodgy.
I saw that in 2009-10 when the insurers pulled all cover for some retailers, who were going down like flies. Just like the bank manager who will lend his umbrella anytime except when it's raining. Their suppliers couldn't borrow for working capital to manufacture and supply on trade credit unless they had a guarantee of payment, and the retailers couldn't fund that scale of cash purchases. Lots of robbing Peter to pay Paul throughout the industry followed, ending in tears in many cases.
I hope the insurers are just having a "pause" while they look at the risk changes - if not then it could be a wider problem.
|
I'd like to raise a toast to the glass-half-full merchants, and cock a snook at the all-is-doom naysayers.
I have every faith in Britain's successful future in the world, hopefully alongside our European neighbours - once they have kicked off the yoke that is the European Union.
|
It's a poor result for anybody who has savings, or a job.
It's a great result for anybody who doesn't need to worry about funding themselves... except... what's bad for those with jobs ends up being worse for those on benefits.
Anyway, with luck Nexit, Itxit, Spexit, Grexit etc. will mean that we can create a new free trade area, without the political aspects, for the whole of Europe.
I'm not certain we will leave. I don't see how the Act will get through Parliament. I'm fairly sure that some who voted to leave will regret it now they've seen their foreign holidays become more expensive, and their jobs lost and their savings smashed. Another referendum will be needed, and it might not have the same result. Interesting times lie ahead, that's certain.
|
"Another referendum will be needed."
God help us. A neverendum indeed. But I don't think anyone has the stomach for it.
|
>> Anyway, with luck Nexit, Itxit, Spexit, Grexit etc. will mean that we can create a
>> new free trade area, without the political aspects, for the whole of Europe.
Many a true word...
>>
>> I'm not certain we will leave. I don't see how the Act will get through
>> Parliament. I'm fairly sure that some who voted to leave will regret it now they've
>> seen their foreign holidays become more expensive, and their jobs lost and their savings smashed.
There is potentially a range of options under "exit" even if Juncker tried to paint a different picture with no halfway house. A clueless thing to do when Remain had partly sold its case on "stay and reform from within".
>> Another referendum will be needed, and it might not have the same result. Interesting times
>> lie ahead, that's certain.
Without in any way being glib or Micawberish, short of a shooting war most things aren't 100% bad.
|
One important question, Dog. How?
The half-full argument only arises if you have half a glass. We had that before - not perfect but manageable and with potential for improvement. Now the glass and its contents are scattered across the dingy carpet of Nige's oh-so-English pub. It's going to take more than wishful thinking to even get another glass.
But then you're one of the Decent People, and I'm not, so please enlighten me.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 11:52
|
|
Cameron has now "jumped Ship"! - not bad for some-one who stated "Britains are not Quitters"
Last edited by: devonite on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 12:08
|
|
I'm waiting with a certain amount of schadenfreude for MEP's, and one useless one in particular to be pulled from the EU payroll. ASAP.
|
I have three friends with whom I share a common interest, two of whom are Belgian, the other French. They work for Logica, now CGI, are very 'European' and are based in Belgium, France & Spain. We meet up alternate years for walks in the Pyrenees or Alps.
Reading their Facebook posts, they thought that it would be better for the common good of the EU if we voted Leave, not for wanting rid of us, but because it might shake things up in Brussels.
It's all too much for my brain to comprehend trying to understand their thought processes.
|
I have went through a Scottish and EU referendum in recent years.
In neither, was there a clear, concise, factual argument put forward on either sides. Project Fear is a huge factor.
Also, sad to say this and it sounds snobbish, but a lot of the key decisions in each referendum was diluted down to a level to appeal to certain voters
eg the immigration, they've taken all our jobs mentality
or
Asda will raise all their prices if Scotland go independent.
That sort of thing. Just had a colleague who voted Out asking me if he has made a mistake because everyone now seems worried. I asked him on what basis he chose to vote out and he said that he didn't really know, just fancied a change but then said it means that when people are getting employed now, they wont automatically need to include foreigners. And when companies are putting out tenders, they can say not to foreign companies.
I explained that this also meant our companies would no longer need to be included in any tendering from EU countries. Oh I never thought of that he says, but I don't think we have many British companies getting work abroad.!
|
What was the potential for improvement seeing as Juncker spitefully stated there would be no further reform deal for the UK?
As MM said - if several other big-player countries in the EU also decide to abandon it, then maybe we can get back to a nice trading agreement without all the silly politics that upset the general public in those countries.
|
|
Did Juncker say that? Or did 'out means out' mean 'don't vote out and then expect to use it as a lever on us for a better deal'?
|
"I'm not certain we will leave. I don't see how the Act will get through Parliament. I'm fairly sure that some who voted to leave will regret it now they've seen their foreign holidays become more expensive, and their jobs lost and their savings smashed. Another referendum will be needed, and it might not have the same result. Interesting times lie ahead, that's certain. "
Mapmaker, spoken like a true European Union Statesman telling us that we didn't vote correctly this time and need another one to get the 'right' answer.
Thank heavens we are on our way out - any other option has the stink of a banana republic.
|
I'll admit I didn't hear the precise sentence emanate from his mouth. But we had several other EU politicians (plus Obama) addressing the UK in threatening tones. In total, those didn't exactly fill the UK public with confidence that any reforms would be coming any time soon, if indeed ever. So a bit of foot-shooting there.
And Legacylad's European pals also clearly demonstrate that there's a lot of disgruntlement elsewhere that the whole thing needs a darn good kick up the backside.
|
And Legacylad's European pals also clearly demonstrate that there's a lot of disgruntlement elsewhere that the whole thing needs a darn good kick up the backside.
There's a world of difference between kicking it up the backside and throwing it off the roof.
|
Totally agree with you WdB, something needed doing about the EU, and rightly or wrongly I think that only the action of voting to leave could be the catalyst for change.
But even then I wouldn't bet on it
Evel less so than my speculative share purchases. At least they have audited and signed off yearly accounts.
Last edited by: legacylad on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 15:05
|
>>One important question, Dog. How?
You'll have to ask successful business people like James Dyson Anthony and Bamford that one will, but as I stated some time ago, I don't think GB will actually leave the EU.
Cameron is going in October, Johnson looks like the favourite to take his place, article 50 wont be triggered until a new prime minister is in place, and by that time the EU will likely be agreeable to making reforms to the EU - benefiting all members of said union.
I can well understand how you Remain voters must feel, because when I hit the sack last night, I was convinced the Leave camp had lost. Boy was I shocked (and some!) when I got up at 5:50am to hear my wife exclaim WHAT, we've voted to Leave (she had the radio on)
All is not lost though, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning ;)
|
Have you all gone to bed? - CGNorwich
