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So, the dire predictions are that Dog and Westpig will be swep' away on Monday morn, and all the rest of us south of about Doncaster will have our houses blown down and be drowned. All those north will just get the drowning bit.
Got your Anderson shelter out of retirement?
Place your bets. I'm a tad concerned about the tall poplars we have, as if they go they will hit the neighbouring houses...
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 28 Oct 13 at 00:48
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Mrs B & I will be in Mallorca by time storm strikes. Will just have to hope my roof tiles hold.
Might remove loft hatch cover to allow pressure balance between inside and outside but then again if it were cold later in week I'll be heating the whole of Northants - albeit only to frost stat temps.
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I will admit to just having checked that the house insurance is up to date as I lost most of the roof tiles and a chimney stack in the 87 "hurricane" !
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Local rag here ran a front page saying worst storm for 20 years to hit. The Spanish lad who works for me came in today in a bit of a flap. Thinks the end of the world is coming.
We are in quite a windy spot normally so I wonder if we may lose a tile or 2
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I was seriously wondering if anyone can actually drive a car in 80mph side winds on the motorway.
I was pondering this because the time that this storm is due to be in full swing is just before people are leaving to go to work on Monday.
and that's if the storm is bang on track to give us the worst (it may still shift positions but no be as gusty).
So my question is, can it be done ?
Have you driven in exceptional side winds without being on two wheels ?
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>> So my question is, can it be done ?
>> Have you driven in exceptional side winds without being on two wheels ?
Driven in a Hurricane in North Carolina if that counts. Driving the car is fine, its avoiding all the stuff being thrown at you thats the problem.
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>> >> So my question is, can it be done ?
>> >> Have you driven in exceptional side winds without being on two wheels ?
One side of my car was washed clean in a particularly strong gale.
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I fly out to SA tonight, onto Botswana tomorrow (work) so only really care that my house is still standing when I get back. Also got to go to Mauritius for a few days (cunningly including a weekend).
Tough old life innit? :-)
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The FRB does not close for cars until gusts reach 80mph, it is more exposed than most motorways and has a few hundred feet drop on each side.
www.forthroadbridge.org/weather
You are a bunch of wimps down there. :-)
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I'm pretty sure I've asked you this before ON and I'm pretty sure you answered but I'll admit I've forgotten the answer !
But, do storms at sea reach below the surface, or is there for example a depth at which it's always calm?
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I'd imagine seasickness in a sub is more than the usual inconvenience:)
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Ian has Erith, Maidstone and Sevenoaks on Monday which means leaving here at 3am so I think it will be a day to take the car instead of the bike and then try and keep the shiny side up all day.
Not easy, not fun and nothing whatsoever you can do to avoid it.
It's never windy in a traffic office.....
Pat
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Insurance coughed up for a nice new Velux skylight after the last hurricane damaged the old, cast iron framed one. The whole house was shaking for several minutes.
It seems there is a chance that this one will by-pass us and go straight on to France. This will no doubt be interpreted as yet another dastardly anglo-saxon plot.
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The forecast given just now on the BBC, by the lovely lady with the two warm fronts, suggested that the options were between along the channel and ravage the South Coast or across the Midlands.
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The French are blow-hards, so that'll be OK ! :-)
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>> Ian has Erith, Maidstone and Sevenoaks on Monday which means leaving here at 3am so
>> I think it will be a day to take the car instead of the bike
>> and then try and keep the shiny side up all day.
>>
>> Not easy, not fun and nothing whatsoever you can do to avoid it.
>>
>> It's never windy in a traffic office.....
>>
>> Pat
Baked beans notwithstanding?
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>> But, do storms at sea reach below the surface, or is there for example a
>> depth at which it's always calm?
>>
Submarines are effected by the surface sea state, waves are vertically elliptical and go down many hundreds of feet when there is a big swell in the deep ocean. There is a depth where it is calm but I would not like to find it in a winter North Atlantic storm. Normally it is far more comfortable to be a few hundred feet down when the weather is bad. As a submarine is basically a tube with a fin on the top the fin gets pushed from side to side when you are travelling across the direction of the waves, also when near the surface and travelling in the direction of the waves, the waves tend to push the submarine up and down making it a little more difficult to maintain an accurate depth, (usually done to +/- 1 foot).
Last edited by: Old Navy on Sat 26 Oct 13 at 09:03
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An excellent explanation and very interesting ON - thanks
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Just my luck that Monday morning is our recycling pick-up time, we just have the small open boxes so I expect outside is going to look like a bomb site and that's without the issue of the empty boxes flying around as uncontrolled projectiles.
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Thanks ON, very interesting. I had a clockwork submarine as a child. Worked quite well in the bath. It is sadly ( or perhaps fittingly ) presumably still at the bottom of Inverleith pond now though.
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I'm optimistic.
The things they forecast often turn out not to happen, it's the ones that catch you by surprise do the damage. I believe the Met Office have a reputation for worst case scenario forecasts in the light of the flak they've taken over the years when they've been caught out.
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This isn't clockwork but I had one, it was called a Glenbur and worked by a powerful rubber band which also controlled the vanes to make it submerge and surface while cruising along. used in Whitestones Pond on Hampstead Heath. tinyurl.com/oyuf4dd
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Subs...
I made my own from wood in the early 60s. About 2.5ft long and weighted so it woudl sit with just the conning tower and top surface showing. It had variable angle metal planes front and rear and was on a very long cord.
You could drop it into flowing water, let the cord out then pull it back when it would submerge because of the plane angle.
Also used to tow it behind a boat on the river.
Great fun for a homemade item from bits lying in the shed.
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We tried to make a dug out canoe from a rotting log on a riverbank one school summer holiday. The basic shape was achieved and it was decided that we should attempt to shoot the "rapids" on the river in it. However, it sank before we managed to reach the white water. I still blame Euan. He was far too fat to sit at one end but it was his dad's tools we'd used to hollow out the log so he had more voting rights.
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If you're going to have a model submarine then a little investment will let you do it properly -
www.westbourne-model.co.uk/acatalog/Radio-controlled_model_Submarines.html
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>>The things they forecast often turn out not to happen, it's the ones that catch you by surprise do the damage. I believe the Met Office have a reputation for worst case scenario forecasts in the light of the flak they've taken over the years when they've been caught out.<<
Same with Meteo France these days.
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There is no way I would put a £1,000+ toy boat of any description on or in a pond. :-)
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I think they're designed for the butler to clip another bottle of Champers to and send to the island in the middle of the swimming pool where you're being pampered by dusky maidens.
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>> I think they're designed for the butler to clip another bottle of Champers to and
>> send to the island in the middle of the swimming pool where you're being pampered
>> by dusky maidens.
>>
Fair enough, way out of my league, I might manage the dusky maiden bit though.
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SWMBO works for NHS and they are taking the warnings seriously.
All staff told to take their laptops home yesterday and to be prepared to work from home if necessary...
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>> All staff told to take their laptops home yesterday and to be prepared to work
>> from home if necessary...
Bed bound patients going home with laptops too, virtually connected to nurses docs and sturgeons..;)
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My wife is a childrens community nurse, the community - thats the place with houses connected by roads and things.
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Check your forecast here.
www.xcweather.co.uk/
The forecast is entirely mechanical as far as I know, so presumably doesn't add any safety factors.
It will of course be wrong, as all forecasts are.
For here it says gusting to 54 mph on Monday.
See also forecast limitations
www.xcweather.co.uk/Info/FAQ
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 26 Oct 13 at 14:36
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I have just been to the BBC weather site and looked at East Midlands and M4 corridor forecasst thru to Monday midday and the highest wind I can find in their hour by hour forecast is 34 mph.
Last edited by: Meldrew on Sat 26 Oct 13 at 14:39
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>> the highest wind I can find in their hour by hour forecast is 34 mph.
But I believe that's pretty high for an average speed - don't know if there's a standard formula to predict max gust speed (which is what they tend to quote in doom & gloom reports) from the average?
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>> don't know if there's
>> a standard formula to predict max gust speed (which is what they tend to quote
>> in doom & gloom reports) from the average?
Might be somewhere in here: www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/?n=windgust :)
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There isn't a standard formula because wind isn't always gusty, but double the average wouldn't be unusual for gusty conditions.
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Rode the old GS home in the teeth of a gale....no big deal - yet.
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Another site quotes speeds and gust speeds and some of the latter are 45+ mph until Monday week! www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/grantham
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Like Smokie I'm out of the way. Fly from Castledon to Palma at 07:40 tomorrow and not back until Thursday afternoon. As long as the house and fences hold up will be OK. We have lost the odd tile in the past.
Forecast here is for gusts to 50 mid morning Monday and pressure as low as 976. Don't think I'd chance an AC electric train to London under those conditions - not with an office laptop on my desk.
Get away OK round here but the Chiltern escarpment creates its own local gust system NE of Wendover - dewirement in the Cheddington area is quite likely.
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My principal concern is cars that aren't in garages may get damaged by flying falling tiles
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More concerned about flying tiles falling on peoples heads.
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Stay indoors! I shan't be out and about in 60mph gusts.
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I hope we get some decent wind here. At least enough to send next door lickpenny neighbour's fence flying.
Might force him to spend some of his, not inconsiderable, wedge on a proper one !
Ted
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Southern England Hurricane = Shetland "Strong Breeze"
PS There are no trees in Shetland for a reason!
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>> Or people.
Billy Connelly once rambled on about the lack of trees in Shetland. The bit that got me chuckling was him surmising that the local dogs therefore by necessity evolved to be able to lie on their backs to wee. This combined with the high winds explaining the permanent dampness in the air !
Well, I thought it was funny...
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>> You are a bunch of wimps down there. :-)
>>
Said the Englishman!
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>> >> You are a bunch of wimps down there. :-)
>> >>
>>
>> Said the Englishman!
>>
Its more a location than nationality thing. :-)
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>> So, the dire predictions are that Dog and Westpig will be swep' away on Monday
>> morn,
Very kind of you to show your concern. Can't answer for Dog, but I have already invoked a contingency plan. I am currently supping some of my father-in-laws rather fine red wine...on the Ardnamurchan Peninsula (Scottish Highlands) and we are here for a week.
The journey up was sheer hell though. Both kids have food poisoning. Had to stop NINE times for major chundering. Thank God for leather seats and our foresight in packing a 'chunder kit'. At one point I was stopping at every service station on the M6.
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Though I had better mitigate here, so have put anything from the garden that was movable in the garage except the kids trampoline. Tied that down with some ratchet straps as it tends to move quite easily in the wind
Last hour or so its started to rain heavily here and the wind is picking up
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A friend in the pub tonight early doors tells me that his neighbour +wife+kids are leaving N Yorks in the early hours of Monday morning to drive down to their rented cottage on the Cornish coast. Personally I would have set off today, if possible, and found a Travelodge to stay in closer to their destination. I think Monday is when this bad weather arrives.
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>> A friend in the pub tonight..........
Is all his travel planning that good?
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Dry, breezy and clear on Anglesey..
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Wet and blustery here in W Sussex. I wouldnt mind, but I hate sweeping up leaves!!
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Mate of mine is on his way with his family tomorrow to a static caravan in Salcombe. I've just sent him a text suggesting that he might want to pack some extra bungees...
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I walked through Salcombe whilst backpacking the SW Coast Path in August. Stayed o/night at the YH which sadly is not renewing its lease from the NT. A lovely old building, but staff told me it was too far out from the centre to attract modern 'hostellers'. A mile's walk. Bless. Salcombe seemed to be populated by Stepford Wives & young teen clones all dressed in Jack Wills, Abercrombie, Hollister & Superdry. No Coop or Greggs for cheap backpacking grub. The guys with whom we spoke at the nearest National Coastwatch lookout said it had overtaken Sandbanks as the most expensive place to live, per sq ft, in the UK.
Probably a nicer place to visit in January when the 'Chelsea by the Sea' crowds have gone. That name, given by the local Coast Watch people, tickled me. Although I would rather not go back at all.
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Here, in North Nottinghamshire, we have a lightly clouded sky and brilliant sunshine. 0800hrs Sunday 27th.
Last edited by: Roger on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 08:09
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Beautiful morning here in Poshville
its the calm before the storm,
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It started off as a great morning here - dry and bright. Around half an hour go the sky went black and there was an almighty downpour for around 5 minutes. Back to blue sky now... The calm before the storm indeed I think..
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We are calm and bright, occasional light shower. Barometer 983 hPa and falling.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 08:59
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989 here - whipping up a gale.
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I can't really reconcile the BBC radio and TV forecasts (Damaging gusts, over an inch of rain, stick to main roads, build an ark etc), with this which says that the highest gust I shall get between now and Monday midnight is 41mph at 3pm this afternoon! Currently 994 steady, clear skies, +11C and a light breeze. www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/stamford
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you think anyone can forecast a gust to a level of 1mph?
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>> you think anyone can forecast a gust to a level of 1mph?
>>
All the weather forecasters do...
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>> >> you think anyone can forecast a gust to a level of 1mph?
>> >>
>>
>> All the weather forecasters do...
And I forecast none of them will be accurate +/- 1mph.
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Probably not - this lot www.xcweather.co.uk/Info/FAQ explain how they do it and what the limitations and accuracy are
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So what are you all going to do tomorrow regarding going to work ?
I will play it by ear and see what the conditions are tomorrow when I get up.
The timing of this storm looks to hit just before rush hour.
if trees are down, I may not bother attempting to get into work.
And if I can get into work, can I get home at the end of the day ?
I like my job but value my life more. he he
Last edited by: diddy1234 on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 09:53
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Update on the apocalyptic murder-storm of death:
I'd rate the weather as "a bit blustery" in Buckinghamshire but may upgrade to "better put a coat on" later in the day.
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Play it by ear. Tomorrow would be a bike day (i.e. no work related kit needs to be carried) - but the Fiesta is booked in to have its exhaust bodged.
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Yeah but you're on Anglesey, where I was brought up - they don't consider it windy unless it's blowing at least 75mph!
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Anglesey? How dare you! Never even been to the place.
I'm in Aylesbury. We have a Waitrose now, you know.
Last edited by: Fursty Ferret on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 10:36
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Update from North Somerset along side the bristol channel - its a bit gusty, but nothing more than usual for here. Sun is shining, so I've just hung the washing out on the line to dry rather than use the tumble dryer. Hopefully in the wind it should be done in an hour.
If it stays like this will go out for a post lunch walk with the kids
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Hope you've put address labels on them
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Be interesting when tipping the tank tomorrow, always gives you one up when you look up at the tank when its @ 45' full tip, is that the clouds moving or the tank...he asked himself from the windward side..;)
Damned sight better than mincing about atop a transporter on an open dockside mind..;)
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>> Hope you've put address labels on them
That's assuming he wants 'em back!
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>> >> Hope you've put address labels on them
>> That's assuming he wants 'em back!
>>
All safely back in! Dried in no time, so the locals are saved from finding my smalls hanging from the trees
Wind is picking up though and its becoming more overcast so jury's out on the post lunch walk, although the cupboards are pretty empty so will have to pop out at some point.
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I expect it might get a bit windy later today in places and there will be a bit of rain as well. Later in the year or early next we'll have a couple of days of snow no doubt and with luck next summer we'll have a few nice days...
End of weather forecast.
;-)
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www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations
Mumbles Head / Swansea looks blowy just now.
On the windy forecast maps, the early hours in the SE look worst. Could be be 50mph here in Aylesbury Vale.
www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast
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Current weather report here in Poshville.
The dogs paws are dry, the conservatory is quite hot, I can see the pylons, and the Fish windsock is gusting vertical to horizontal, direction towards the BBQ pagoda.
been out for a dog walk, acorn count: very high, hard hats required.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 12:58
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Strong wind out here in the wild west, but nothing spectacular so far and about to give the dog a decent walk. The storm forecast looks to have shifted a little further south so we might escape the worst.
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Max gust of 50+mph was being forecast for 6am by XCWeather, but now back to midnight albeit 'only' 49mph. Might be a problem given that we're seeing Jimmy Carr tonight at the Hexagon; hope he doesn't do too many encores...
My Reading-Bath mainline train will probably be ok tomorrow morning; not so sure about the Earley-Reading train from Waterloo though, or the 1+ mile walk to get to the station.
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Well, I'm going to risk taking the dog along the towpath imminently. If there's a tidal surge on the Shropshire Union canal and I don't return, well, so be it...
;-)
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Just been down to the forestry and beach at Newborough/Llanddwyn. Bracing but very mild and dry.
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Forecasts appear to indicate winds dropping this afternoon before picking up again tonight.
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Just spent a brief weekend in The Dukeries (not a part of the country we knew and it was very pleasant indeed).
Anyway been a bit huffy all down the A1. Car didn't want to stay in its lane much so been a bit of a fight. Got RSI now! Quite a few vehicles swerving a little. Nothing to worry about at this point but very noticeable.
Last edited by: Crankcase on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 15:47
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The Dukeries - my part of the world these days. Some very nice "ducal" houses/estates to visit, but the Robin Hood bit is much over-hyped here!
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We did Rufford then Market Warsop then the little steam railway then Church Warsop then Retford then Holbeck for B&B and a nice evening meal in Elmton. Today we walked to Creswell and did the Ice Age Cave Tour and then meandered through Sherwood Forest on country lanes as it was looking beautiful before heading back. A very nice weekend and I said to Mrs C how lucky she was to be looking at old copies of Mantovani on vinyl in Retford for her 29th wedding anniversary. Luckily she agreed. We know how to live.
Any of that your way Roger?
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>> We did Rufford then Market Warsop then the little steam railway then Church Warsop then
>> Retford then Holbeck for B&B and a nice evening meal in Elmton. Today we walked
>> to Creswell and did the Ice Age Cave Tour and then meandered through Sherwood Forest
>> on country lanes as it was looking beautiful before heading back. A very nice weekend
>> and I said to Mrs C how lucky she was to be looking at old
>> copies of Mantovani on vinyl in Retford for her 29th wedding anniversary. Luckily she agreed.
>> We know how to live.
>>
>> Any of that your way Roger?
Yes - we live in Worksop - Gateway to the Dukeries - as it boasts, so all very local to us.
We have not yet been to Cresswell Crags, much to our shame!
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One Christmas Eve or thereabouts I was heading down the M6 through the Lake District in a borrowed Ford Escort in a bit of a storm.
At one point the wind caught the car so hard on its starboard side it pushed it from lane 2 onto the hard shoulder in one easy move. The truck I'd just passed was dealing with his own issues I assume as he either didn't bother to scold me or was rather busy at the time.
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I recall a similar drive in the early eighties in my Morris Minor. A physical battle to keep it on the road and I was literally out of breath at each service station all the way from Plymouth to Essex. Took about eight hours. Horrendously windy that day.
Last edited by: Crankcase on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 16:12
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A true hurricane (in USA at least) is a storm with sustained winds in excess of 74mph, or higher, so that isn't what we are looking at here, I hope!
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The hype surrounding this storm is becoming hysterical. I can imagine waltzing in at midday telling an employer ( if I had one!) I'd not bothered travelling because of the wind and I might have ruined my hair-do or broken a nail. I would expect a major disciplinary for that one! What a nation of complete wooses we've become, when we're advised to put our daily lives on hold for a bit of rain and wind. I shall be walking the dog through the woods with my waterproofs on at 8 am as usual and fully expect to survive as I usually do.
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The forecast 49mph for Monday has suddenly fallen to 35mph.
Just a breeze..
A triumph of hype.
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"Everything is someone else's fault and must be worth a legal claim."
I despair of the mind-set which has crept into G.B. You'd never believe that this was the country which explored and ruled half the world.
Standby for anti British Empire wowsers!
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As soon as Michael Fish was mentioned or wheeled out I thought to myself - I wonder if it will be a lesser storm.... the opposite of what he'd said in 1987 :-)
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Seems to have made landfall in Dog country...hope he's safe inside his kennel.
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28 mph gusting 58 forecast for 2100 at Plymouth - twice what they had at 1800
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This may help to asses the wind category.
tinyurl.com/6qlruv
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Anglesey lad see Baz.
This is true! BBQ weather this. Mind you, might have to put a coat on if it carries on.
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Hopefully we will miss most of it here in Sarf Manchester but southern parts of Cheshire might be badly affected. Clear sky and just a bit breezy here nothing unusual for this time of year.
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>> Max gust of 50+mph was being forecast for 6am by XCWeather, but now back to
>> midnight albeit 'only' 49mph.
Up to 58mph now!
>> not so sure about the Reading train from Waterloo though
South West Trains have announced that most services won't start until 0800, but not sure yet whether that includes mine (which leaves Waterloo before 6).
Last edited by: Focusless on Sun 27 Oct 13 at 17:39
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All the TOCs have announced emergency timetables. Nothing like throwing in the towel early.
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"The hype surrounding this storm is becoming hysterical"
Wrong:
The hype surrounding this storm IS hysterical.
Why, oh why have we pretty suddenly turned into this risk averse society. Mad, mad all of them.....I'm telling you. ... mad, mad..................
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The article says:
"The youngster, who has not been named, was reportedly caught up by strong currents while swimming off West beach, in the town, with a friend at 4.15pm today."
So, not a lot to do with the impending wind nor with shutting down railway lines, public services, part of the NHS etc. etc.
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Slight pedant mode:- I get annoyed when the papers report that victims etc have been "Named". They have been named all their lives and the authorities have "Identified" them. However, it has passed into common usage,in the way things have "gate" tacked on the end if they are contentious.
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I was thinking a bit more like INEOSgate, Bugginggate etc.
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Blowing well here...(PH33 postcode)
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Good prog on ITV2 at 18:30
"The Perfect Storm" (film 2000)
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Went to where it was filmed in 08 (Gloucester,Maine) lovely little community - type of place I'd escape to if all else fails. Good film.
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Well the storm certainly blew the irony straight over your head.
about 50 mph gust i reckon.
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Don't do irony on a Sunday....!
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>> Don't do irony on a Sunday....!
>>
Nor me. Wife does the laundry.
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I've got my chainsaw all set up, tensioned and re-fuelled in case I need it tomorrow morning. Who knows, I may even be able to make a few quid clearing driveways etc....
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21 gusting 36 (mph) in Stamford, with rain.
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Peeing it down here in BH23, Sky gone belly up, but seems less windy than 6 hours ago.
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The impending "hurricane" - Bromptonaut
