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The very recent atrocity whilst no doubt dreadful it seems confusing who is responsible, are our leaders gearing up for another American led regime change routine using this conveniently.
All the right things are being said, will Blair be able to spare the time to lead our lads on this 21st centruy crusade or will Hague don a camouflage baseball cap and do the honours, maybe they'll pilot a few drones remotely...there could be a bad joke there but i won't.
I see another monumental basket case unfolding.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 30 Aug 13 at 10:17
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Pretty unlikely, other countries in the west might be up for some regime change but they don't have the military capacity. The american aren't interested, they are focusing on the pacific now. Their attitude is, it's in your neck of the woods you sort it, haven't the military capacity to sort it? Then shut up.
There was a window to do something but that's passed. Although another could appear, the americans may even get involved but it'll be less and less these days if it's anywhere near Europe or not in their interest.
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Hague and his kind are always full of bluster and self importance. Unfortunately they are would be committing our forces and resources for their political or personal gain (regardless of their political party). One day they are going to talk us into a blood y nose. You will only see the Americans turn up if it is beneficial to their interests, a lesson our politicians should learn.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Thu 22 Aug 13 at 16:41
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We wouldn't know where to start, in backing a faction, as the area is so fickle. In one of the richest areas (in aggregate) of the world, cannot the oil rich states, sort this out themselves? Probably do not give a guava, which is a shame for the Syrians. And the Egyptians. Time we in the UK kept our powder dry. It's down to them. However, where there is a profit to be made the arms dealers will want to raise the ante...
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Neither side in the Syrian brouhaha is worth a tuppenny toss.
Evil bludgers, both as bad as each other in the atrocities committed stakes.
We should stay out.
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You will only see the Americans turn up if it is beneficial to their
>> interests, a lesson our politicians should learn.
>>
Dead right.
Go in with the best intentions and end up with both factions hating you and the winners eventually using the arms and expertise you supplied against you. Sad as it is over there it is for the Syrians to sort out themselves.
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It won't be long before we won't have enough military capability to do much anyway.
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>> It won't be long before we won't have enough military capability to do much anyway.
>>
We past that point long ago.
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Britain is almost universally hated and distrusted by all sides in all the important Middle East countries. It's our imperial burden, the result of active involvement until recently . Quite flattering really.
We should try to live up to it and not suck up to everyone. Say it like it is (but not like most of you cats, no offence). No simple matter of course.
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Thu 22 Aug 13 at 20:15
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Until one day it all blows up and we go back to living in caves,the few what's left.
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You need a couple more drinks Nederlander... perhaps some of that funny gin in terracotta bottles that used to be a good deal back in the fifties, as a chaser between a couple of mugs of ale or lager or whatever...
Stone age Nyet!
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Governments, the media and many of its readers need there to be goodies and baddies. So they need either the current regime or the revolutionaries to be good.
The trouble is that it is rarely so and usually the involved parties are essentially shades of gray.
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I've had my tally of Genever A.C.I'm not a political expert but something has got to give in this quagmire they call the Middle East.They might all go back to building sandcastles in the caves.>:)
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Regardless of specific race, it seems that wherever Islam rules there is trouble.
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Dunno Roger, Christians butchered one another for centuries, now intead of inquisition torture and burnings they've found politics too, God help us.
It would help if we the west actually kept our greedy interfering politicians noses out of other peoples business and stopped telling the world how to behave.
Maybe our beloved Peace Envoy would like to move out there permanently and lead by example, i'm quite sure they'd make an example of him in short order.
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I blame Islamists for the Troubles in Ireland....(obviously not, just making a point)
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I think the whole Basque thing is their fault as well.
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I find the whole basque thing very interesting, but this thread is useless without pics..:)
edit...see HM's mind works the same way, must be all those lonely hours on the road.
further edit...excellent timing..;)
Last edited by: gordonbennet on Thu 22 Aug 13 at 21:56
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>> I think the whole Basque thing is their fault as well.
>>
you have to admit that their women would look better in Basques than in Burkhas.
Tone of thread suitably lowered, result GB! ;-)
Last edited by: Harleyman on Thu 22 Aug 13 at 21:54
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I heard they are building a new concert hall in the Basque country with 100 doors........
......it seems they don't want all their Basques in one exit..........
Anyone seen the coat?.....
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Indonesia is the world's third most populous democracy, and the world's largest Muslim-majority nation.
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Sad as it is, leave well alone.
Plenty of other atrocities happening in the world, apart from Syria. If our politicos feel so strongly, they can fly out there, give up their careers, and work for nothing on the war torn streets in a humanitarian role, in the sure fire knowledge that they will go to heaven.
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Sad as it is, leave well alone.
Would you have said that during WW2 when rumours came here about atrocities in the concentration camps?
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Yes.
And then we went to war with Germany. I don't see us going to war with either camp in Syria.
Plenty of atrocities happening in Africa but we don't intervene.
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>> Indonesia is the world's third most populous democracy, and the world's largest Muslim-majority nation.
>>
>>
>>
>>
www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/publications/books/2006/Riots_Pogroms_Jihad.aspx
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>> >> Indonesia is the world's third most populous democracy, and the world's largest Muslim-majority nation.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>>
>> www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/publications/books/2006/Riots_Pogroms_Jihad.aspx
I think Northern Ireland beats them hands down. By a considerable margin. Heard of Omagh have you????
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>> >> >> Indonesia is the world's third most populous democracy, and the world's largest Muslim-majority
>> nation.
>>
>> I think Northern Ireland beats them hands down. By a considerable margin.
As the world's third most populous democracy, or the world's largest Muslim majority?!
Last edited by: SteelSpark on Fri 23 Aug 13 at 11:40
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>> >> I think Northern Ireland beats them hands down. By a considerable margin.
>>
>> As the world's third most populous democracy, or the world's largest Muslim majority?!
>>
A guy is walking down the Falls Road when he feels the barrel of a gun pressed against the back of his neck. "What religion are you", says a menacing voice.
Thinking quickly he has a brainwave - "I'm Jewish".
"Oh my", cries the excited voice behind him, "I must be the luckiest Muslim in Britain".
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>> I've had my tally of Genever
And you are not alone comrade I'm sure...
>> something has got to give in this quagmire they call the Middle East.
Quagmires are for squelching around in and sometimes sinking without trace. Nothing wrong with a nice quagmire if you've got the right equipment.
Middle East tensions are knowingly maintained to the advantage of all parties. Really makes a chap feel secure, knowImean?
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>>Middle East tensions are knowingly maintained to the advantage of all parties
Especially the party of the six pointed star.
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Might be an isolationist policy but this is yet again a Middle-East problem that needs to sort itself out without Western interference.
Assuming the rebels seize power I'm willing to bet there would be just as many if not more atrocities committed under the new, fractured, leadership than there are now.
Look at Egypt, where the population doesn't understand how democracy works and let the place fall apart after 18 months through violence and protest.
We elected a corrupt, incompetent party to lead Government in the UK but we have to bite the bullet and live with what we have, knowing we can change it in 2015.
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>> We elected a corrupt, incompetent party to lead Government in the UK but we have
>> to bite the bullet and live with what we have, knowing we can change it
>> in 2015.
>>
Well, we changed it in 2010.
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>> We elected a corrupt, incompetent party to lead Government in the UK but we have
>> to bite the bullet and live with what we have, knowing we can change it
>> in 2015.
Only because the armed forces have been weakened so much that Cameron and Clegg can hold them off with a potted plant and a empty stapler.
Seriously though, you're right, they don't really get how democracy works, but then they are new to it. Give them a few hundred years and they will be as good at it as we are (poor sods).
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>> Assuming the rebels seize power I'm willing to bet there would be just as many
>> if not more atrocities committed under the new, fractured, leadership than there are now.
The rebels are not a coherent whole and if/when the current leadership falls they'll be fighting amongst themselves. There are also cross currents of support from Hammas, Saudi and Iran. It's pretty unlikley, given proximity/history that Israel isn't pulling some strings as well - if only for its own security.
>> Look at Egypt, where the population doesn't understand how democracy works and let the place
>> fall apart after 18 months through violence and protest.
I don't think Morsi understood democracy either. The Brotherhood promised a secular state but soon began to implement strongly Islamist policies. The subsequent protests were from those wanting a seperation between religion and the state. I think it was Turkish leader Erdogan who likened democracy to a bus - you take it as far as you want to go and then get off.
I suspect Morsi was of same cloth.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 23 Aug 13 at 14:27
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>> I don't think Morsi understood democracy either. The Brotherhood promised a secular state but soon
>> began to implement strongly Islamist policies. The subsequent protests were from those wanting a seperation
>> between religion and the state. I think it was Turkish leader Erdogan who likened democracy
>> to a bus - you take it as far as you want to go and
>> then get off.
>>
>> I suspect Morsi was of same cloth.
>>
Politicians are quite happy with a despot they can do business with and is not rocking the boat too much, it is the uncertainty that worries them.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 23 Aug 13 at 17:08
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>> Politicians are quite happy with a despot they can do business with
Up to a point, until the despot becomes embarrassingly tyrannical or above himself generally (Saddam Hussein managed both). Western political leaders would have been quite happy with the ghastly Morsi. It was the Egyptians who didn't want him or his stupid mediaeval rules of conduct.
You're right to say they hate uncertainty ON, and that's what they are faced with in Syria. The vile Assad junior will stop at nothing it seems, but he is losing anyway and has now earned opprobrium by plunging his country into civil war to preserve his weak tyranny. The US is faffing about the use of sarin as a 'red line'. But that's just another thousand Syrians dying in agony to join the tens of thousands who have already perished or been maimed for life. Red line be damned, that was passed ages ago.
I suppose if they know where the sarin is kept they could obliterate that, or get the Israelis or Saudis to do it. But it won't bring anyone back to life or repair their mangled limbs.
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>> >>Middle East tensions are knowingly maintained to the advantage of all parties
>>
>> Especially the party of the six pointed star.
Not "especially", just "including".
Does Abdul want to be an important Hamas commander against the "zionist oppressor", or Abdul the shop keeper (who lives with his mum) in a land of peace?
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>>French upping the ante www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-2379508
Fabius has not specified what force he has in mind for the USA and its henchmen to apply. I don't recall France itself being anxious to enter the fray in Iraq and Afghanistan. It should gets its baguette policy right before presuming to advise or incite other nations.
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You have to feel sorry for the people of Syria.President Obama called it a slight mishap or something aking to these words (Troublesome).Chemical attack.That beggars belief.Russia and the Chinese aren't without blame.Europe as ususal talks with hollow words wating for the Americans to make a move.
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Blame is for God, and small children Dutchie.
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Ok I'm still a small child Dog maybe looking at the world in a simplistic way.We are all to blame in a small way.
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I'm not, it was Zero's fault.
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True Zero causes all the trouble got to blame somebody.>:)
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Is it me, or is Hague starting to sound a bit like Blair just before the Iraq shambles?
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Lets bomb Syria and achieve nothing but confirm to all Islamic fanatics they are correct in saying we are anti Muslim.
Any words which say we are going to save people by bombing Syria are spoken by a muppet.. Hague of course is a muppet.
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>> Lets bomb Syria and achieve nothing but confirm to all Islamic fanatics they are correct
>> in saying we are anti Muslim.
>>
>> Any words which say we are going to save people by bombing Syria are spoken
>> by a muppet.. Hague of course is a muppet.
>
Totally agree.
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>> is Hague starting to sound a bit like Blair just before the Iraq shambles?
Do you really think so ON? I'd say Hague had a lot more gravitas than Tony Blair and less persuasive charm.
As for 'taking action', governments don't have as free a hand in deciding these things as people seem to imagine. There comes a time sometimes when they have to put their - or rather our - money where their mouths are. And any fool kno that no one comes out of any sort of armed conflict smelling like a rose.
That, in a word, is why no sane person would seek high elective office. We leave all that to a highly specialised minority of nutters. It's a bit unfair to expect them to please us all in every way.
Anyone who doesn't like it should immediately stand for high elective office on an 'I don't like it' platform. And when they get into power there won't be any more shambleses. Will there?
Tchah!
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The US has the Carrier group led by USS Harry S Truman, we have HMS Harry Potter...maybe :-)
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>> The US has the Carrier group led by USS Harry S Truman, we have HMS
>> Harry Potter...maybe :-)
The yanks will expect us to fire off 1% of the total ordinance at the place, take 50% of the blame and 75% of the retribution.
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 26 Aug 13 at 17:53
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And what will it solve if we are going in there? Our history in Iraq and Afghanistan is nothing to write home about.
I suppose it keeps the pennies flowing military hardware is there to be used
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I see that the US, amongst others, have announced that they have "undeniable proof" that Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction Syria has used chemical weapons.
No problem with that, I'm sure.
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>> I see that the US, amongst others, have announced that they have "undeniable proof" that
>> Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction Syria has used chemical weapons.
>>
>> No problem with that, I'm sure.
>>
Absolutely. We can trust our Intelligence Services not to tell lies and not to misuse their powers by spying on us... errr...
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Russia's Deputy PM has accused the west of "Acting like a monkey with a grenade", which just about sums the whole thing up.
Why can't we just learn to mind our own business and accept that stuff happens, it always has and it always will and all we'll do by playing God is make more enemies who'll board our buses and trains with a backpack full of Semtex.
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Does it really matter?
When you boil it down, most of the things happening in the world and beamed into our homes as "news" are really little more, to the average man, than entertainment.
We don't watch this stuff, and comment on it, because it really matters to us or affects us, but just because it's something to pass the time, like Downton Abbey, the latest Rooney wranglings, or military strikes in Syria.
We might like to put an intellectual or "worldly" sheen on our interest in it, but it is really just another portion of light entertainment.
It looks likely that there will be air strikes on Syria, but it won't affect any of us, or anybody we know. It isn't going to lead to World War 3, and the chance of consequences that personally affects us is also effectively zero.
It might, though, be fun to discuss the politics, and the hardware/tactics for a bit, at least until we get some more news on Gareth Bale.
Last edited by: SteelSpark on Tue 27 Aug 13 at 17:12
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>> We don't watch this stuff, and comment on it, because it really matters to us or affects us, but just because it's something to pass the time, like Downton Abbey, the latest Rooney wranglings, or military strikes in Syria.
A bit glib there SS, verging on what's sometimes called 'vulgar cynicism'. Perhaps anyone capable of watching pap like Downton Abbey (or understanding WTF is supposed to be going on around the spud-faced nipper) would see the clamour in Syria as entertainment for the dull-eyed masses. But I do believe some people are able to take that clamour for the serious, potentially threatening thing it is. Surely the concept of 'knock-on effects' is widely understood by now?
It's true that TV dumbs everything down. But the viewers don't have to fall into an obedient coma.
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>> But I do believe some people are able to take that clamour for the
>> serious, potentially threatening thing it is. Surely the concept of 'knock-on effects' is widely understood
>> by now?
Oh, I don't doubt that there is the chance for knock-on effects, just that they won't affect anybody here.
Also, I don't mean to suggest that it is just for the dull-eyed masses, or that it is dumbed down.
I think we can be intellectually engaged, but still not actually care about the subject.
So, we may see very clever analysis directed at this, in just the same way that it could be directed at a game of chess between a couple of grandmasters. It doesn't mean that it really matters to us or affects us more than that game of chess.
EDIT: So, if we can call watching a game of chess, entertainment, the same can be said for watching whatever happens in Syria.
Last edited by: SteelSpark on Tue 27 Aug 13 at 17:49
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>> if we can call watching a game of chess, entertainment, the same can be said for watching whatever happens in Syria.
Not really. One's a game of symbolic murder, the other is the real thing of actual mass murder. You have to be pretty numb and slack-jawed not to recognise the difference.
The cold-eyed strategic game is for the holders of high elective office, if they can manage it. We are allowed to be aware of the maimed nippers, blood splashes and so on, and feel it isn't necessarily a good thing and could lead to some sort of trouble even for us in the long run.
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>>
>> Oh, I don't doubt that there is the chance for knock-on effects, just that they
>> won't affect anybody here.
Not sure you can say that, unless you know everyone in person on here.
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>> It isn't going to lead to World War
>> 3, and the chance of consequences that personally affects us is also effectively zero.
>>
I hope you have some insider knowledge and are right. Where do you think WW3 will start if not the middle east if (or when) the oil supply to the west is shut off? Easily done if Iran (backed by Russia) mines the Strait of Hormuz.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Tue 27 Aug 13 at 18:46
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WW1 The last of the great wars,didn't take take long for WW2 to start.Don't be to cocky any conflict can escalate.
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Egypt has foiled some plot to block the Suez Canal with a blown up ship, I hear. We live in dangerous times. We need a Day of the Jackal job on Assad, IF he is 100% known to have ordered the use of chemical weapons. There is a school of thought which says the rebels have access to the weapons too and may have sacrificed some of their followers to muddy the waters.
An interesting oint is that if we do something to Assad that will in fact be "Supporting" the cause of those who perpetrated 9/11. Sunnis vs Shias etc
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>> >> It isn't going to lead to World War
>> >> 3, and the chance of consequences that personally affects us is also effectively zero.
>> >>
>>
>> I hope you have some insider knowledge and are right. Where do you think WW3
>> will start if not the middle east if (or when) the oil supply to the
>> west is shut off? Easily done if Iran (backed by Russia) mines the Strait of
>> Hormuz.
Iran is not backed by Russia. Both the US and Russia are self sufficient in Oil and gas, mining the straights would only hurt Iran.
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It's just a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing.
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>> It's just a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know
>> nothing.
>>
Are you sure our politicians are going to keep us out of it?
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"Are you sure our politicians are going to keep us out of it?"
Absolutely. Peace for our time old chap.
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>> It's just a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know
>> nothing.
Except that both sides are committing atrocities.
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>> Iran is not backed by Russia. Both the US and Russia are self sufficient in
>> Oil and gas, mining the straights would only hurt Iran.
>>
So sorry Zero, I bow to your greater knowledge, I thought they were allies.
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>> >> Iran is not backed by Russia. Both the US and Russia are self sufficient
>> in
>> >> Oil and gas, mining the straights would only hurt Iran.
>> >>
>>
>> So sorry Zero, I bow to your greater knowledge, I thought they were allies.
They aint,
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I don't think Iran would be the only country hurt if it were to close. The spams wouldn't be as worse off, but I don't think it's in their interests if it were to close.
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The "Middle East" is not a single entity, and half the time the parts are as much in disagreement with each other as they are with anyone else.
And the oil supply to the west is shut of (easily done).
I rather think you've been watching rather too many James Bond films. They're not real you know.
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>> I rather think you've been watching rather too many James Bond films. They're not real
>> you know.
>>
So this is fiction is it?
tinyurl.com/c7cfbt9
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Oh wow, still never mind I am sure a speed boat with a a few revolutionary guards and a kalashnikov can sort the British Navy out. Again.
Its a baseless threat, just big words.
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There is a naval slang name for people who sound like you Zero, in fact several depending on the situation. Unfortunately I can't elaborate due to the swear filter / house rules. :-)
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>> There is a naval slang name for people who sound like you Zero, in fact
>> several depending on the situation. Unfortunately I can't elaborate due to the swear filter /
>> house rules. :-)
Well if its from one of those that got captured, I am not going to spend the rest of my nights in bed shivering in fear am I.
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>> >> There is a naval slang name for people who sound like you Zero, in
>> fact
>> >> several depending on the situation. Unfortunately I can't elaborate due to the swear filter
>> /
>> >> house rules. :-)
>>
>> Well if its from one of those that got captured,
At least they got a free suit out of it, perhaps not the best look but can't knock free can you?
Last edited by: sooty123 on Tue 27 Aug 13 at 20:03
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>> Well if its from one of those that got captured, I am not going to
>> spend the rest of my nights in bed shivering in fear am I.
>>
I don't see why not, you must have had a sad life, fixing a computer in a nice warm office or standing on a station platform as a train goes past sounds really exiting.
Some would say, and I am one of them, that abusing members of the armed forces anonymously online, when ignorant of the circumstances, is cowardly trolling.
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>>So this is fiction is it?
Yes.
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submissions.epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/41527
An ePetition, FWIW, to keep UK troops out of Syria.
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>> submissions.epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/41527
>>
>> An ePetition, FWIW, to keep UK troops out of Syria.
>>
FWIW?
Absolutely nothing. Those things are a sop to placate Sun readers.
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Inclined to agree with you RR, one press of the delete button renders millions of signatures if its get that many to nothing in a millisecond, i doubt the PM would even be informed of the numbers and its ludicrous to even wish that any of them would care a damn.
Far better to bombard them with the written protest letter, no i don't suppose they'll get delivered to anyone who gives a toss either, somebody at the sorting office will just have to dump 'em in the paper recycler.
As always i blame one person for all this, and thats the voter, we as a nation have the government we deserve, enjoy it and all its outcomes and remember it was you who agreed to it when you put the X.
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But nobody did vote for this crowd, it was a behind-the-doors cobbled together shambles, so I've been told.
I would rather we kept out of other country's problems, there are enough problems (issues!) in this country to sort out.
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>> submissions.epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/41527
>>
>> An ePetition, FWIW, to keep UK troops out of Syria.
>>
Worth? Very little.
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From the petition website:
We are fighting in too many theatre's in the world, and with the cuts in our armed sevices we are not in a position to take on any more military actions.
I'm all for staying well away from this tribal feud but would have no objection to sending this chap as cannon fodder for his appalling misuse of the apostrophe.
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>> would have no objection to sending this chap as cannon fodder for his appalling misuse of the apostrophe.
Quite right FF. You would expect someone who claimed to understand stuff to be reasonably adept with his own language. Gross errors of grammar, spelling, punctuation and syntax suggest an unconvincing discourse, an intellectual level haphazard in other ways too.
Be careful though. Everyone has a dodgy mannerism or two.
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I wrote to my (Tory) MP on Monday. Said if we went to war, I would vote UKIP even if they are a bunch of loons :-)
Apologies to Roger and other UKIPPers.
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We take votes wherever we can find them :-)
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For once UKIP talks sense.. :-)
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Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.
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>> Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.
>>
Not if it's a 24 hour clock, or it's got an AM and PM indicator. Don't mean to be pedantic, but that's worth pointing out.
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Aye. Suppose I was giving them a bit too much credit.
;-)
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Has anyone else noticed the marked resemblance of President Assad to King Alexander Obrenovic of Serbia, assassinated in 1903?
www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/king-alexander-and-queen-draga-serbia-assassinated
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>> Has anyone else noticed the marked resemblance of President Assad to King Alexander Obrenovic of
>> Serbia, assassinated in 1903?
Oh hell. Don't drag them in to it as well. They've been behaving themselves for 10 years or so.
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>> Has anyone else noticed the marked resemblance of President Assad to King Alexander Obrenovic of
>> Serbia, assassinated in 1903?
>>
>> www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/king-alexander-and-queen-draga-serbia-assassinated
>>
>>
>>
It's my constant thought on wakening :-)
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Nah.....You have it all wrong madf
This is the true lookalike .......
www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=lookalikes&
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I'm no UKIP supporter, but the article makes eminent sense. Out of the mouths of babes and sucklings maybe, but it has the issues pat, so far as I can tell. Pity the Coalition are so emotional about chemical weapons, yet sanguine (to a point) about other weapons. Cynical view might be that the western arms industries would benefit from a "hit and run" war. Short-termism as a political philosophy..
Last edited by: NIL on Wed 28 Aug 13 at 13:08
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"Baghdad hit by deadly bombings
A series of bombings in the Iraqi capital Baghdad has killed more than 50 people and wounded dozens more, police and medical sources said:
....Violence has increased in Iraq in recent months amid heightened tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23861541
Time to bomb Iraq to stop the internal killings?
Err ' we've done that already to stop a dictator who was killing his people...
No need to say any more in my view. Bombing Syria will solve nothing .
Last edited by: madf on Wed 28 Aug 13 at 15:36
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One of these "Surgical strikes" will either hit a home for disabled orphans or the Syrians will blow one up themselves and claim that we did it and that'll add another couple of million people who hate us and want to do us harm.
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UKIP say no to any UK military intervention in Syria
We have been in Afghanistan for longer than the first and second world wars put together and the benefits to the civilians of the country are marginally increased yet the price paid in money and blood by British troops is enormous.
There is no clear proof it was the Assad regime who used chemical weapons
We have no idea who the rebels are - a point UKIP has been making since the start and we opposed the arming of the rebels who it has been indicated have extremist Islamic elements.
The MoD is already struggling with budget cuts and troops are being made redundant, many with very few opportunities of jobs on civvy street during this economic decline.
It, quite simply, is not our business anyway. We are not world policemen.
We saw a decade ago what happens with dodgy evidence being given to Parliament and we must not repeat the mistakes of Iraq.
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I find myself close to agreeing with Roger.
Miliband is pretty cautious too as are some elements of the coalition.
If however septics go in, with or without support from other nations, then consequences such Syrian attacks on Turkey or Iranian mischief in Hormuz may still follow.
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I see no evidence of any public support for action. Rather the opposite. Iraq was a case where those against action could be accused of "ignoring the evidence". After the revelations of large scale lies and made up evidence, no-one with any memory of the Iraq events will trust any Intelligence. Or make any allowance for any politician lying or exaggerating.
Which gives politicians a problem. Act without any public support - and risk large scale defections in voters staying away/voting against - or tough it out and act.
My personal view is that the commentariat and politicians have underestimated the public's lack of trust of politicians. And going to war will reinforce the public view that politicians cannot be trusted. Period. And that politicians do not act as in the UK public's interests. Period.
I forecast we will not take part in any military action as the political consequences will gut support for the main parties - and they are starting - just very slowly - to realise that.
If we do go to war, I expect UKIP to see a surge in popular appeal. And rightly as well.
Last edited by: madf on Thu 29 Aug 13 at 12:13
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I had a thought last night ( I had one last year as well) that if I was 'sitting' on a jury and the Assad regime was on trial for using chemical weapons in Syria, given the evidence presented so far to the court (of The Crimson King)
I would have to find the defendant not guilty.
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>> I would have to find the defendant not guilty.
>>
What we need is the Scottish option - Not Proven.
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Six RAF Typhoon interceptor fast jets are being deployed this morning from RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire to RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. tinyurl.com/nq585zj
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>> >> It isn't going to lead to World War
>> >> 3, and the chance of consequences that personally affects us is also effectively zero.
>>
>> I hope you have some insider knowledge and are right. Where do you think WW3
>> will start if not the middle east if (or when) the oil supply to the
>> west is shut off? Easily done if Iran (backed by Russia) mines the Strait of
>> Hormuz.
Well, no, I'm guessing, of course.
But this sum of all fears stuff doesn't really convince me. We've seen it all in countless books and movies, about how these conflicts slowly escalate to WW3. It's a jolly good story, but I don't see it happening in real life.
We had similar warnings when we attacked Iraq, actually invaded the place and changed the regime. We were told about opening the gates of hell and how the whole region would be set ablaze. Oh, and "blowback", do you remember that? How it was stated with certainty that insurgents in Iraq would come over here and to the US en masse with their new explosives skills, and bomb us for years. Instead we had one successful bombing by UK terrorists, who claimed to have been inspired by the war, and nothing at all in the US. Where are those legions of Iraqi bombers that were foretold with such great confidence?
It's great rhetoric, but it doesn't actually happen.
The major powers are not going to confront each other like they naively did a century ago. Syria might be important to Russia, but not so important to have a military confrontation with the US.
Likewise, it's not in Assad's interests or Iran's interests to provoke the US with an major attack on, say, Israel, or mining the Gulf, or some kind of state sponsored terrorism (as the WW3 story often goes).
That would just remove the shackles from the US, and Assad's days in the sun would be over, as would Iran's nuclear program, and when it comes down to it, Putin will watch them burn, and then make allies with (and sell weapons to) the next lot.
The US and Russia have been happy to have proxy wars in the past, and may well have one in Syria, but this is not going to turn into anything major, IMHO.
There could be a few Hezbollah rockets and the like, but it will fizzle out as always.
Last edited by: SteelSpark on Thu 29 Aug 13 at 14:41
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>> nothing at all in the US.
Boston Marathon?
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>> >> nothing at all in the US.
>>
>> Boston Marathon?
>>
meanwhile the Middle East gets slowly more radicalised.. see Egypt..
And eventually Pakistan gets drawn in... and it has madmen and nukes.
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>> >> nothing at all in the US.
>>
>> Boston Marathon?
So, 10 years after the US invade and change the regime in Iraq, a couple of guys kill 5 people, with a vague mention of defending Muslims.
That's hardly the same thing as huge numbers of trained Iraqi bombers waging an asymmetric war on US soil, is it?
It goes back to what I was saying about this having no real effect on us personally.
Even if you invade one of these countries and change the regime, history tells us that the impact on our populations is negligible.
Even if you draw a direct line between the London bombings and Iraq, then you are looking at a personal chance of being killed by terrorists following invasion, of 1 in 10 million chance per year.
If you look at the effect on US, and accept a direct line between Iraq and Boston, then you are look at a 1 in 700 million chance per year of being killed by a terrorist, after invasion and regime change.
Last edited by: SteelSpark on Thu 29 Aug 13 at 15:14
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>> That's hardly the same thing as huge numbers of trained Iraqi bombers waging an asymmetric
>> war on US soil, is it?
Well of course not, but you said "nothing", and I think that's disrespectful to the victims of that "nothing". So you needed putting right.
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>> Well of course not, but you said "nothing", and I think that's disrespectful to the
>> victims of that "nothing". So you needed putting right.
Ah, I see.
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>> Ah, I see.
>>
Good. The people who died there, and their relatives, deserve better than to be considered as "nothing", even if only by a random internet pontificator.
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>> Good. The people who died there, and their relatives, deserve better than to be considered
>> as "nothing", even if only by a random internet pontificator.
okey dokey
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>
>> So, 10 years after the US invade and change the regime in Iraq, a couple
>> of guys kill 5 people, with a vague mention of defending Muslims.
>>
>> That's hardly the same thing as huge numbers of trained Iraqi bombers waging an asymmetric
>> war on US soil, is it?
>>
>> It goes back to what I was saying about this having no real effect on
>> us personally.
>>
Let's not forget the billions of pounds the west has to spend on security to prevent those terrorist attacks from taking place. They effect all of us because we are funding it as well as putting up with all the inconvenience of security checks and loss of personal freedom.
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>> Let's not forget the billions of pounds the west has to spend on security to
>> prevent those terrorist attacks from taking place. They effect all of us because we are
>> funding it as well as putting up with all the inconvenience of security checks and
>> loss of personal freedom.
A lot of speculation there. Do we have any facts?
How much do we spend? How much more do we spend since Iraq? What is that extra spend per person?
If the idea is that "attacking Syria will increase our counter-terrorism spending", then let's at least know how much invading Iraq increased it.
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But, of course, we are then moving away from "getting involved makes us more likely to be attacked ourselves", to "getting involved costs us money".
There is no doubt that getting involved will cost money, because even the attack will cost money.
I suppose at least a lot of it (including the counter terrorism money) goes back into the system (by paying Brits).
Governments have to spend money on something I suppose.
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>> Where are those legions of Iraqi bombers that were foretold with such great confidence?
The problem really is that there don't have to be 'legions', just a few, clever enough to do some mischief without being detected and stopped. Nor do they have to be Iraqis, they can quite easily be what they usually are: random lunatics born and raised in the West whose brains aren't straight and who think Islam gives them an excuse (it doesn't, that's just invented Islamist rubbish).
The whole jihadi phenomenon is an intelligence nightmare. I'm amazed the spooks are doing as well as they are. Keep it up chaps.
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>> >> Where are those legions of Iraqi bombers that were foretold with such great confidence?
>>
>> The problem really is that there don't have to be 'legions', just a few, clever
>> enough to do some mischief without being detected and stopped.
Yes, that's true AC.
I was just commenting on the fact that we often hear predictions of grave consequences, that come from clever people with very convincing logic, and which are often stated as being inevitable, but which very often never transpire...often because they have one flaw...in this case the lack of ongoing motivation for one of these insurgents to attack the UK.
Last edited by: SteelSpark on Thu 29 Aug 13 at 15:24
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I am not convinced with you'r rhetoric about Putin and Iran.Russia and Iran are close allies.
Iran sell it's oil to China and is supplied by Russia for it's nuclear capabilities.Maybe it is all a political game and us sheep will never get the truth for what is going on.There is also a massive Russian naval base in Syria.
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>> There is also a massive Russian naval base in Syria.
>>
Massive?
It's only weakipedia, but:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_naval_base_in_Tartus
"Currently maintained by civilian contractors only (4 servicemen stationed circa 2012)"
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>> I am not convinced with you'r rhetoric about Putin and Iran.Russia and Iran are close
>> allies.
>>
>> Iran sell it's oil to China and is supplied by Russia for it's nuclear capabilities.
I'm sure you're correct, but that doesn't mean that Russia or China would go to war with the US.
You could, of course, come up with a narrative that draw Russia and the US into a war...it's a narrative that has been written many times.
But is it credible?
There were plenty of proxy wars between the US and Russia, fighting over territory, but they never escalated to a direct confrontation.
Cuba was different, because that was about putting Soviet missiles very close to the US.
Why, given the history between Russia and the US, would you think that they would get to the point of slinging missiles at each other? (rather than just getting proxies to fling missiles at each other)
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Everyone is coming to the conclusion the middle east is a messy lost cause and just needs to burn itself out - not worth fighting over. The next war, if there is one, will spring up in the disputed islands off China. Thats a very messy disputed area indeed.
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 29 Aug 13 at 15:34
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>> Everyone is coming to the conclusion the middle east is a messy lost cause and
>> just needs to burn itself out - not worth fighting over. The next war, if
>> there is one, will spring up in the disputed islands off China. Thats a very
>> messy disputed area indeed.
>>
I agree 100% with Zero on his ME comments... I suspect the next war is likely to be the ME - Syria vs Israel or Egypt vs Israel.. or Iran nukes or.... lots of options..
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Nice to see the House agrees with UKIP - a "NO" to war in Syria by the UK.
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Syria, the cauldron is simmering. - sooty123
